We report a single case of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) by serotype 4, multilocus sequence type 10172 (ST10172) isolate with vanG-type resistance genes and reduced vancomycin susceptibility. The isolate was recovered during 2022 from a 66-year-old resident with bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia within a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs) site hospital. The patient had received 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and there was no evidence of concurrent or prior receipt of vancomycin in the previous year. Serotype 4/ST10172 IPD has shown increases within western ABCs sites, and the recent acquisition of a vanG element warrants close monitoring of this lineage.

BACKGROUND: Gestational exposure to non-persistent endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) may be associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. While many EDCs affect the endocrine system, their effects on endocrine-related metabolic pathways remain unclear. This study aims to explore the global metabolome changes associated with EDC biomarkers at delivery. METHODS: This study included 75 pregnant individuals who delivered at the University of Cincinnati Hospital from 2014 to 2017. We measured maternal urinary biomarkers of paraben/phenol (12), phthalate (13), and phthalate replacements (4) from the samples collected during the delivery visit. Global serum metabolome profiles were analyzed from maternal blood (n = 72) and newborn (n = 63) cord blood samples collected at delivery. Fifteen of the 29 urinary biomarkers were excluded due to low detection frequency or potential exposures during hospital stay. We assessed metabolome-wide associations between 14 maternal urinary biomarkers and maternal/newborn metabolome profiles. Additionally, performed enrichment analysis to identify potential alterations in metabolic pathways. RESULTS: We observed metabolome-wide associations between maternal urinary concentrations of phthalate metabolites (mono-isobutyl phthalate), phthalate replacements (mono-2-ethyl-5-carboxypentyl terephthalate, mono-2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl terephthalate) and phenols (bisphenol-A, bisphenol-S) and maternal serum metabolome, using q-value < 0.2 as a threshold. Additionally, associations of phthalate metabolites (mono-n-butyl phthalate, monobenzyl phthalate) and phenols (2,5-dichlorophenol, BPA) with the newborn metabolome were noted. Enrichment analyses revealed associations (p-gamma < 0.05) with amino acid, carbohydrate, lipid, glycan, vitamin, and other cofactor metabolism pathways. CONCLUSION: Maternal paraben, phenol, phthalate, and phthalate replacement biomarker concentrations at delivery were associated with maternal and newborn serum global metabolome.

OBJECTIVES: To describe patterns of medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) during pregnancies in the opioid use disorder (OUD) cohort of MAT-LINK, a sentinel surveillance network of pregnancies at US clinical sites. METHODS: Seven clinical sites providing care for pregnant people with OUD collected electronic health record data. Pregnancies were included in this analysis if (1) the pregnancy outcome occurred between January 2014 and August 2021, (2) the person had OUD, and (3) there was any electronic health record-documented MOUD during pregnancy. Analyses describing MOUD type, demographic characteristics, and timing during pregnancy were performed. RESULTS: Among 3911 pregnancies with any documented MOUD, more than 90% of pregnancies with methadone were to publicly insured people, which was greater than percentages for pregnancies with other MOUD. Buprenorphine with naloxone and naltrexone were two MOUD types that were increasingly common among pregnant people in recent years. In most pregnancies, prenatal care and MOUD were first documented in the same trimester. During the first, second, and third trimesters, there were 37%, 61%, and 91% of pregnancies with MOUD, respectively. Approximately 87% (n = 3412) had only 1 documented MOUD type, versus 2 or 3 types. However, discontinuity in MOUD across trimesters was still observed. CONCLUSIONS: In MAT-LINK's OUD cohort, the overall frequency of MOUD improved over the course of pregnancy. Contextual factors, such as insurance status and year of pregnancy outcome, might influence MOUD type. Prenatal care and MOUD might be facilitators for one another; however, there are still opportunities to improve early linkage and continuous access to both prenatal care and MOUD during pregnancy.

Paratyphoid B fever (PTB) is caused by an invasive lineage (phylogroup 1, PG1) of Salmonella enterica serotype Paratyphi B (SPB). However, little was known about the global population structure, geographic distribution, and evolution of this pathogen. Here, we report a whole-genome analysis of 568 historical and contemporary SPB PG1 isolates, obtained globally, between 1898 and 2021. We show that this pathogen existed in the 13th century, subsequently diversifying into 11 lineages and 38 genotypes with strong phylogeographic patterns. Following its discovery in 1896, it circulated across Europe until the 1970s, after which it was mostly reimported into Europe from South America, the Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa. Antimicrobial resistance recently emerged in various genotypes of SPB PG1, mostly through mutations of the quinolone-resistance-determining regions of gyrA and gyrB. This study provides an unprecedented insight into SPB PG1 and essential genomic tools for identifying and tracking this pathogen, thereby facilitating the global genomic surveillance of PTB.

INTRODUCTION: As perinatal drug overdoses continue to rise, reliable approaches are needed to monitor overdose trends during pregnancy and postpartum. This analysis aimed to determine the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of ICD-9/10-CM codes for drug overdose events among people in the MATernaL and Infant clinical NetworK (MAT-LINK) with medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) during pregnancy. METHODS: People included in this analysis had electronic health record (EHR) documentation of MOUD and a known pregnancy outcome from January 1, 2014 through August 31, 2021. Data were analyzed during pregnancy through one year postpartum. CDC's drug overdose case definitions were used to categorize overdose based on ICD-9/10-CM codes. These codes were compared to abstracted EHR data of any drug overdose. Analyses were conducted between May 2023 and May 2024. RESULTS: Among 3,911 pregnancies with EHR-documented MOUD, the sensitivity of ICD-9/10-CM codes for capturing drug overdose during pregnancy was 32.7%, while specificity was 98.5%, PPV was 23.4%, and NPV was 99.0%. The sensitivity of ICD-9/10-CM codes for capturing drug overdose postpartum was 30.9%, while specificity was 98.4%, PPV was 25.9%, and NPV was 98.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity and PPV of ICD-9/10-CM codes for capturing drug overdose compared to abstracted EHR data during the perinatal period was low in this cohort of people with MOUD during pregnancy, though the specificity and NPV were high. Incorporating other data from EHRs and outside the healthcare system might provide more comprehensive insights on nonfatal drug overdose in this population.

BACKGROUND: Prolonged exposure to hyperoxia can lead to hyperoxic acute lung injury (HALI) in preterm neonates. Vitamin D (VitD) stimulates lung maturation and acts as an anti-inflammatory agent. Our objective was to determine if VitD provides a dose-dependent protective effect against HALI by reducing inflammatory cytokine expression and improving alveolarization and lung function in neonatal mice. METHODS: C57BL/6 mouse neonates were randomized and placed in room air or hyperoxic (85% O(2)) conditions for 6 days. Control, low (5 ng/neonate) and high (25 ng/neonate) doses of VitD were administered daily beginning at day 2 via oral gavage. Lung tissue was analyzed for edema, changes in pulmonary structure and function, and inflammatory cytokine expression. RESULTS: Neonatal mice treated with VitD in hyperoxic conditions had improved weight gain, reduced pulmonary edema and increased alveolar surface area compared to untreated pups in hyperoxia. No significant changes in cytokine expression were observed between untreated and VitD neonates. While changes in surfactant protein mRNA expression were impacted by hyperoxia and VitD administration, no significant changes in alveolar type II cell percentages were observed. At 3 weeks, mice in hyperoxia treated with VitD had greater lung compliance, diminished airway reactivity and improved weight gain. CONCLUSIONS: High dose VitD significantly limited harmful effects of HALI. These results suggest that supplementation of VitD to neonatal mice during hyperoxia exposure provides both short-term and long-term protective benefits against HALI.

SIGNIFICANCE: Nicotine-containing products, labelled as being 'tobacco-free' nicotine (TFN), are marketed to consumers as alternatives to conventional tobacco products. Little is known about these emerging products and their contents. METHODS: Moisture, total nicotine and pH content were analysed in 70 commercially available TFN products, covering five different types (lozenges, chewing gum, loose leaf, toothpicks and pouches). The freebase nicotine was calculated using the measured pH values. RESULTS: Total nicotine levels ranged from 0.822 to 31.5 mg/g. Nicotine levels were highest in nicotine pouches (1.41-8.11 mg/product) and lowest in toothpicks (1.19-1.57 mg/product). Nicotine levels in TFN loose leaf (1.26-9.16 mg/g) were comparable to conventional moist snuff. The pH ranged from pH 4.68 to 9.49 and per cent freebase nicotine ranged from 0.0453% to 96.7%. The freebase nicotine content was highest in nicotine pouches (2.15-16.8 mg/g) and lowest in lozenges (0.0004-0.349 mg/g). The majority of TFN products (91.4%) analysed were advertised to contain flavour components. CONCLUSION: Overall, products advertised as higher strength were found to have higher nicotine content than products advertised as lower strength. The measured total nicotine content was either equal to or less than the level stated on the label, except for one product. Although TFN products may not contain tobacco lamina and may lack many harmful chemicals and carcinogens found in conventional smokeless products, freebase nicotine levels in the pouch products are elevated and could contribute to higher levels of addiction and other negative health effects.

We evaluated HIV DNA levels in individuals who received long-acting cabotegravir (CAB-LA) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) pre-exposure prophylaxis in the HPTN 083 and 084 trials and had HIV DNA testing performed to help determine HIV status. HIV DNA testing was performed using peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) samples collected after a reactive HIV test was obtained at a study site. DNA was quantified using droplet digital PCR (lower limit of detection [LLOD]: 4.09 copies/million PBMCs). Final HIV status and the timing of the first HIV-positive visit were determined by an independent adjudication committee based on HIV test results from real-time site testing and retrospective testing at a centralized laboratory. HIV DNA testing was performed for 133 participants [21 HIV-positive (7 CAB-LA arm, 14 TDF/FTC arm) and 112 HIV-negative; 1-6 tests/person]. For persons with HIV, the time between the first HIV-positive visit and collection of the first sample for DNA testing was a median of 81 days for those receiving CAB-LA (range 41-246) and 11 days for those receiving TDF/FTC (range 3-127). Four (57.1%) of the seven CAB-LA cases with infection had a low initial DNA result [three detected <LLOD; one near the LLOD (4.2 copies/10(6) PBMCs); in 2/4 cases, the DNA level was still <10 copies/10(6) PBMCs ≥40 weeks after the first HIV-positive visit. In contrast, only 3/14 (21.4%) of the TDF/FTC cases had a low or negative initial DNA test result (one not detected; two <10 copies/10(6) PBMCs). In this study, the time between the first HIV-positive visit and the first DNA test was longer in the CAB-LA cases than the TDF/FTC cases. Despite this difference, low or undetectable DNA levels were more frequently observed in the CAB-LA cases. This suggests that CAB-LA exposure may limit seeding of the HIV reservoir in early infection.

INTRODUCTION: An error grid compares measured versus reference glucose concentrations to assign clinical risk values to observed errors. Widely used error grids for blood glucose monitors (BGMs) have limited value because they do not also reflect clinical accuracy of continuous glucose monitors (CGMs). METHODS: Diabetes Technology Society (DTS) convened 89 international experts in glucose monitoring to (1) smooth the borders of the Surveillance Error Grid (SEG) zones and create a user-friendly tool-the DTS Error Grid; (2) define five risk zones of clinical point accuracy (A-E) to be identical for BGMs and CGMs; (3) determine a relationship between DTS Error Grid percent in Zone A and mean absolute relative difference (MARD) from analyzing 22 BGM and nine CGM accuracy studies; and (4) create trend risk categories (1-5) for CGM trend accuracy. RESULTS: The DTS Error Grid for point accuracy contains five risk zones (A-E) with straight-line borders that can be applied to both BGM and CGM accuracy data. In a data set combining point accuracy data from 18 BGMs, 2.6% of total data pairs equally moved from Zones A to B and vice versa (SEG compared with DTS Error Grid). For every 1% increase in percent data in Zone A, the MARD decreased by approximately 0.33%. We also created a DTS Trend Accuracy Matrix with five trend risk categories (1-5) for CGM-reported trend indicators compared with reference trends calculated from reference glucose. CONCLUSION: The DTS Error Grid combines contemporary clinician input regarding clinical point accuracy for BGMs and CGMs. The DTS Trend Accuracy Matrix assesses accuracy of CGM trend indicators.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs) identified increased serotype 4 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), particularly among adults experiencing homelessness (AEH). METHODS: We quantified IPD cases during 2016-2022. Employing genomic-based characterization of IPD isolates, we identified serotype-switch variants. Recombinational analyses were used to identify the genetic donor and recipient strains that generated a serotype 4 progeny strain. We performed phylogenetic analyses of the serotype 4 progeny and serotype 12F genetic recipient to determine genetic distances. RESULTS: We identified 30 inter-related (0-21 nucleotide differences) IPD isolates recovered during 2022-2023, corresponding to a serotype 4 capsular-switch variant. This strain arose through a multi-fragment recombination event between serotype 4/ST10172 and serotype 12F/ST220 parental strains. Twenty-five of the 30 cases occurred within Oregon. Of 29 cases with known residence status, 16 occurred in AEH. Variant emergence coincided with a 2.6-fold increase (57 to 148) of cases caused by the serotype 4/ST10172 donor lineage in 2022 compared to 2019 and its first appearance in Oregon. Most serotypes showed sequential increases of AEH IPD/all IPD ratios during 2016-2022 (for all serotypes combined, 247/2198, 11.2% during 2022 compared to 405/5317, 7.6% for 2018-2019, p<0.001). Serotypes 4 and 12F each caused more IPD than any other serotypes in AEH during 2020-2022 (207 combined reported cases primarily in 4 western states accounting for 38% of IPD in AEH). CONCLUSION: Expansion and increased transmission of serotypes 4 and 12F among adults potentially led to recent genesis of an impactful hybrid "serotype-switch" variant.

SIGNIFICANCE: Historically, tobacco product emissions testing using smoking machines has largely focused on combustible products, such as cigarettes and cigars. However, the popularity of newer products, such as electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), has complicated emissions testing because the products' mouth-end geometries do not readily seal with existing smoking and vaping machines. The demand for emissions data on popularly used products has led to inefficient and non-standardised solutions, such as laboratories making their geometry-specific custom adaptors and/or employing flexible tubing, for each unique mouth-end geometry tested. A user-friendly, validated, universal smoking machine adaptor (USMA) is needed for testing the variety of tobacco products reflecting consumer use, including e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, cigarettes, plastic-tipped cigarillos and cigars. METHODS: A prototype USMA that is compatible with existing smoking/vaping machines was designed and fabricated. The quality of the seal between the USMA and different tobacco products, including e-cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos, was evaluated by examining the leak rate. RESULTS: Unlike commercial, product-specific adaptors, the USMA seals well with a wide range of tobacco product mouth-end geometries and masses. This includes e-cigarettes with non-cylindrical mouth ends and cigarillos with cuboid-like plastic tips. USMA leak rates were lower than or equivalent to commercial, product-specific adaptors. CONCLUSION: This report provides initial evidence that the USMA seals reliably with a variety of tobacco product mouth-end geometries and can be used with existing linear smoking/vaping machines to potentially improve the precision, repeatability and reproducibility of machine smoke yield data. Accurate and reproducible emissions testing is critical for regulating tobacco products.

SIGNIFICANCE: Characterisation of tobacco product emissions is an important step in assessing their impact on public health. Accurate and repeatable emissions data require that a leak-tight seal be made between the smoking or vaping machine and the mouth-end of the tobacco product being tested. This requirement is challenging because of the variety of tobacco product mouth-end geometries being puffed on by consumers today. We developed and tested a prototype universal smoking machine adaptor (USMA) that interfaces with existing machines and reliably seals with a variety of tobacco product masses and geometries. METHODS: Emissions were machine-generated using the USMA and other available adaptors for a variety of electronic cigarettes (n=7 brands), cigars (n=4), cigarillos (n=2), a heated tobacco product, and a reference cigarette (1R6F), and mainstream total particulate matter (TPM) and nicotine were quantified. Data variability (precision, n≥10 replicates/brand) for all products and error (accuracy) from certified values (1R6F) were compared across adaptors. RESULTS: TPM and nicotine emissions generated using the USMA were accurate, precise and agreed with certified values for the 1R6F reference cigarette. Replicate data indicate that USMA repeatability across all tobacco products tested generally meets or exceeds that from the comparison adaptors and extant data. CONCLUSION: The USMA seals well with a variety of combustible tobacco products, e-cigarettes with differing geometries and plastic-tipped cigarillos. Variability for all measures was similar or smaller for the USMA compared with other adaptors.

BACKGROUND: In October 2013, Burkina Faso introduced 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) into the routine childhood immunization program using 3 primary doses with no booster. Previous pneumococcal carriage studies showed reductions in vaccine-type (VT) carriage in children aged <5 years but not in older age groups. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, age-stratified pneumococcal carriage study among healthy persons aged ≥1 month in Bobo-Dioulasso in March 2020. Pneumococci isolated by culture from nasopharyngeal swabs (all participants) and oropharyngeal swabs (participants aged ≥5 years) were serotyped by polymerase chain reaction; a subset was serotyped by Quellung. Using data from a study with the same design from March 2017, we examined changes in pneumococcal carriage by age group. RESULTS: Among 1005 (2017) and 1002 (2020) enrolled participants, VT carriage decreased (21.6% to 15.9%; adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR], 0.76 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .63-.92]). By age group, decline in VT carriage was significant among children aged 5-14 years (28.9% to 16.3%; aPR, 0.57 [95% CI, .39-.84]) but not among children aged <5 years (22.4% to 19.1%; aPR, 0.87 [95% CI, .70-1.09]) or adults aged ≥15 years (12.0% to 5.5%; aPR, 0.52 [95% CI, .26-1.05]). CONCLUSIONS: Between 3 and 6 years after PCV13 introduction, significant declines in VT carriage were observed in older children, possibly reflecting indirect effects of PCV13 use. VT carriage in children aged <5 years remained stable with almost 1 in 5 carrying VT pneumococci, suggesting limitations to a PCV schedule without a booster dose.

During biological invasion process, species encounter new environments and partially escape some ecological constraints they faced in their native range, while they face new ones. The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is one of the most iconic invasive species introduced in every inhabited continent due to international trade. It has also been shown to be infected by a prevalent yet disregarded microbial entomoparasite Ascogregarina taiwanensis. In this study, we aimed at deciphering the factors that shape the global dynamics of A. taiwanensis infection in natural A. albopictus populations. We showed that A. albopictus populations are highly colonized by several parasite genotypes but recently introduced ones are escaping it. We further performed experiments based on the invasion process to explain such pattern. To that end, we hypothesized that (i) mosquito passive dispersal (i.e. human-aided egg transportation) may affect the parasite infectiveness, (ii) founder effects (i.e. population establishment by a small number of mosquitoes) may influence the parasite dynamics, and (iii) unparasitized mosquitoes are more prompt to found new populations through active flight dispersal. The two first hypotheses were supported as we showed that parasite infection decreases over time when dry eggs are stored and that experimental increase in mosquitoes' density improves the parasite horizontal transmission to larvae. Surprisingly, parasitized mosquitoes tend to be more active than their unparasitized relatives. Finally, this study highlights the importance of global trade as a driver of biological invasion of the most invasive arthropod vector species.

The high-consequence pathogen Bacillus anthracis causes human anthrax and often results in lethal infections without the rapid administration of effective antimicrobial treatment. Antimicrobial resistance profiling is therefore critical to inform post-exposure prophylaxis and treatment decisions, especially during emergencies such as outbreaks or where intentional release is suspected. Whole-genome sequencing using a rapid long-read sequencer can uncover antimicrobial resistance patterns if genetic markers of resistance are known. To identify genomic markers associated with antimicrobial resistance, we isolated B. anthracis derived from the avirulent Sterne strain with elevated minimal inhibitory concentrations to clarithromycin. Mutants were characterized both phenotypically through broth microdilution susceptibility testing and observations during culturing, as well as genotypically with whole-genome sequencing. We identified two different in-frame insertions in the L22 ribosomal protein-encoding gene rplV, which were subsequently confirmed to be involved in clarithromycin resistance through the reversion of the mutant gene to the parent (drug-susceptible) sequence. Detection of the rplV insertions was possible with rapid long-read sequencing, with a time-to-answer within 3 h. The mutations associated with clarithromycin resistance described here will be used in conjunction with known genetic markers of resistance for other antimicrobials to strengthen the prediction of antimicrobial resistance in B. anthracis.IMPORTANCEThe disease anthrax, caused by the pathogen Bacillus anthracis, is extremely deadly if not treated quickly and appropriately. Clarithromycin is an antibiotic recommended for the treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis of anthrax by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; however, little is known about the ability of B. anthracis to develop resistance to clarithromycin or the mechanism of that resistance. The characterization of clarithromycin-resistant isolates presented here provides valuable information for researchers and clinicians in the event of a release of the resistant strain. Additionally, knowledge of the genetic basis of resistance provides a foundation for susceptibility prediction through rapid genome sequencing to inform timely treatment decisions.

A systems analysis was conducted to determine the potential molecular mechanisms underlying differential immunogenicity and protective efficacy results of a clinical trial of the radiation-attenuated whole sporozoite PfSPZ Vaccine in African infants. Innate immune activation and myeloid signatures at pre-vaccination baseline correlated with protection from Pf parasitemia in placebo controls. These same signatures were associated with susceptibility to parasitemia among infants who received the highest and most protective PfSPZ Vaccine dose. Machine learning identified spliceosome, proteosome, and resting dendritic cell signatures as pre-vaccination features predictive of protection after highest-dose PfSPZ vaccination, whereas baseline CSP-specific IgG predicted non-protection. Pre-vaccination innate inflammatory and myeloid signatures were associated with higher sporozoite-specific IgG Ab response but undetectable PfSPZ-specific CD8+ T-cell responses post-vaccination. Consistent with these human data, innate stimulation in vivo conferred protection against infection by sporozoite injection in malaria-naïve mice while diminishing the CD8+ T-cell response to radiation-attenuated sporozoites. These data suggest a dichotomous role of innate stimulation for malaria protection and induction of protective immunity of whole-sporozoite malaria vaccines. The uncoupling of vaccine-induced protective immunity achieved by Abs from more protective CD8+ T cell responses suggest that PfSPZ Vaccine efficacy in malaria-endemic settings may be constrained by opposing antigen presentation pathways.

The research letter “Menthol levels in cigarettes from eight manufacturers” reports concentrations of menthol in whole cigarettes from eight manufacturers in the United States. As our research has progressed, we have re-examined our results and have identified an error in the calculations that were used to determine the reported menthol concentrations. The analytical method used to quantitate menthol concentrations in whole cigarettes was originally developed for only unburned tobacco (eg, tobacco filler). When the method was applied to whole cigarettes, we discovered that we did not account for the mass of the tobacco (400 mg) that was used in the validation of the analytical method. Because the calibration curve originally used to quantitate menthol concentrations has units of μg/g, the cigarette mass was also applied incorrectly. As a result, the calibration curve and subsequent product menthol concentrations quantitated under the original conditions in μg/g should have been adjusted by a factor of 0.4 to provide the correct concentration of menthol found in each cigarette product (μg/cig). Figure 1, has been revised to reflect the correct menthol concentrations from the different manufacturers. Table 1 contains the measured menthol concentration ranges for each manufacturer so that readers can see the measured menthol concentrations used to create figure 1. Because the calculation error applies to all products, relative concentration comparisons made in the manuscript between products remain unchanged. |

CHROMagar Candida Plus is a new formulation of chromogenic media designed for the detection and differentiation of major clinical Candida species, including Candida auris. The objective of this study is to evaluate CHROMagar Candida Plus when used according to manufacturer's instructions with a panel of 206 fungal isolates and 83 skin-swab specimens originally collected for C. auris colonization screening. Of the 68 C. auris isolates tested, 66/68 displayed the expected light-blue colony morphology and blue halo within 48 h. None of the remaining 138 non-auris isolates appeared similar to C. auris. CHROMagarCandida Plus was, therefore, inclusive to 97% of 68 C. auris isolates tested and supported visual exclusion of 100% of the 138 non-C. auris isolates tested. For the 83 colonization screening specimens, direct plating onto CHROMagarCandida Plus was 60% sensitive and 100% specific when compared to the enrichment broth gold-standard reference method. In sum, these findings demonstrate the utility of this media when working with isolates but also notable limitations when working with primary skin-swabs specimens when competing yeast species are present.IMPORTANCECandida auris is an emerging fungal pathogen of public health concern. As it continues to spread, it is important to publish evaluations of new diagnostic tools. In this study, we share our experience with a new chromogenic media which can help distinguish C. auris from related species.

Together with plague, smallpox and typhus, epidemics of dysentery have been a major scourge of human populations for centuries(1). A previous genomic study concluded that Shigella dysenteriae type 1 (Sd1), the epidemic dysentery bacillus, emerged and spread worldwide after the First World War, with no clear pattern of transmission(2). This is not consistent with the massive cyclic dysentery epidemics reported in Europe during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries(1,3,4) and the first isolation of Sd1 in Japan in 1897(5). Here, we report a whole-genome analysis of 331 Sd1 isolates from around the world, collected between 1915 and 2011, providing us with unprecedented insight into the historical spread of this pathogen. We show here that Sd1 has existed since at least the eighteenth century and that it swept the globe at the end of the nineteenth century, diversifying into distinct lineages associated with the First World War, Second World War and various conflicts or natural disasters across Africa, Asia and Central America. We also provide a unique historical perspective on the evolution of antibiotic resistance over a 100-year period, beginning decades before the antibiotic era, and identify a prevalent multiple antibiotic-resistant lineage in South Asia that was transmitted in several waves to Africa, where it caused severe outbreaks of disease.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic infection worldwide. Diagnosis of leptospirosis is challenging given its nonspecific clinical symptoms that overlap with other acute febrile illnesses and limitations with conventional diagnostic testing. Alternative advanced diagnostics, such as microbial cell-free DNA (mcfDNA), are increasingly being used to aid in the diagnosis of infections and can be applied to pathogens with public health importance such as Leptospira, a nationally notifiable disease. METHODS: The Karius Test uses plasma mcfDNA sequencing to detect and quantify DNA-based pathogens. This test offered through the Karius lab detected 4 cases of Leptospira santarosai during a 5-month period across the United States in 2021 and were clinically reviewed. RESULTS: In our case series, 4 adolescents with recent travel to Central America (Costa Rica, n = 3 and Belize, n = 1) from April to August 2021 were diagnosed with leptospirosis. While a large workup was performed in all cases, mcfDNA testing was the first test to detect L. santarosai as the microbiological diagnosis in all cases. CONCLUSIONS: Results of the Karius Test enabled rapid, noninvasive diagnosis of leptospirosis allowing for targeted therapy. Use of mcfDNA can be utilized for diagnosis of pathogens where conventional testing is challenging or limited. This in turn can enable quick diagnosis for targeted treatment and potentially aid in supporting case definitions of reportable diseases of public health concern.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has classified CRAB as an urgent public health threat. In this paper, we used a collection of >6,000 contemporary clinical isolates to evaluate the phenotypic and genotypic properties of CRAB detected in the United States. We describe the frequency of specific carbapenemase genes detected, antimicrobial susceptibility profiles, and the distribution of CRAB isolates categorized as multidrug resistant, extensively drug-resistant, or difficult to treat. We further discuss the proportion of isolates showing susceptibility to Food and Drug Administration-approved agents. Of note, 84% of CRAB tested harbored at least one class A, B, or D carbapenemase genes targeted for detection and 83% of these carbapenemase gene-positive CRAB were categorized as extensively drug resistant. Fifty-four percent of CRAB isolates without any of these carbapenemase genes detected were still extensively drug-resistant, indicating that infections caused by CRAB are highly resistant and pose a significant risk to patient safety regardless of the presence of one of these carbapenemase genes.

BACKGROUND: In 2019, the Louisiana Department of Health reported an early influenza B/Victoria (B/VIC) virus outbreak. METHOD: As it was an atypically large outbreak, we deployed to Louisiana to investigate it using genomics and a triplex real-time RT-PCR assay to detect three antigenically distinct B/VIC lineage variant viruses. RESULTS: The investigation indicated that B/VIC V1A.3 subclade, containing a three amino acid deletion in the hemagglutinin and known to be antigenically distinct to the B/Colorado/06/2017 vaccine virus, was the most prevalent circulating virus within the specimens evaluated (86/88 in real-time RT-PCR). CONCLUSION: This work underscores the value of portable platforms for rapid, onsite pathogen characterization.

In 2017, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) established the Antimicrobial Resistance Laboratory Network to improve domestic detection of multidrug-resistant organisms. CDC and four laboratories evaluated a commercial broth microdilution panel. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing using the Sensititre GN7F (ThermoFisher Scientific, Lenexa, KS) was evaluated by testing 100 CDC and Food and Drug Administration AR Isolate Bank isolates [40 Enterobacterales (ENT), 30 Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PSA), and 30 Acinetobacter baumannii (ACB)]. We assessed multiple amounts of transfer volume (TV) between the inoculum and tubed 11-mL cation-adjusted Mueller-Hinton broth: 1 µL [tribe Proteeae (P-tribe) only] and 10, 30, and 50 µL, resulting in respective CFU per milliter of 1 × 10(4), 1 × 10(5), 3 × 10(5), and 5 × 10(5). Four TV combinations were analyzed: standard (STD) [1 µL (P-tribe) and 10 µL], enhanced standard (E-STD) [1 µL (P-tribe) and 30 µL], 30 µL, and 50 µL. Essential agreement (EA), categorical agreement, major error (ME), and very major error (VME) were analyzed by organism then TVs. For ENT, the average EA across laboratories was <90% for 7 of 15 β-lactams using STD and E-STD TVs. As TVs increased, EA increased (>90%), and VMEs decreased. For PSA, EA improved as TVs increased; however, MEs also increased. For ACB, increased TVs provided slight EA improvements; all TVs yielded multiple VMEs and MEs. For ENT and ACB, Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) trended downward using a 1 or 10 µL TV; there were no obvious MIC trends by TV for PSA. The public health and clinical consequences of missing resistance warrant increased TV of 30 µL for the GN7F, particularly for P-tribe, despite being considered "off-label" use.

Macrolides of different ring sizes are critically important antimicrobials for human medicine and veterinary medicine, though the widely used 15-membered ring azithromycin in humans is not approved for use in veterinary medicine. We document here the emergence of azithromycin-resistant Salmonella among the NARMS culture collections between 2011 and 2021 in food animals and retail meats, some with co-resistance to ceftriaxone or decreased susceptibility to ciprofloxacin. We also provide insights into the underlying genetic mechanisms and genomic contexts, including the first report of a novel combination of azithromycin resistance determinants and the characterization of multidrug-resistant plasmids. Further, we highlight the emergence of a multidrug-resistant Salmonella Newport clone in food animals (mainly cattle) with both azithromycin resistance and decreased susceptibility to ciprofloxacin. These findings contribute to a better understating of azithromycin resistance mechanisms in Salmonella and warrant further investigations on the drivers behind the emergence of resistant clones.

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) causes cyclical outbreaks of respiratory disease and acute flaccid myelitis. EV-D68 is primarily transmitted through the respiratory route, but the duration of shedding in the respiratory tract is unknown. We prospectively enrolled 9 hospitalized children with EV-D68 respiratory infection and 16 household contacts to determine EV-D68 RNA shedding dynamics in the upper respiratory tract through serial midturbinate specimen collections and daily symptom diaries. Five (31.3%) household contacts, including 3 adults, were EV-D68-positive. The median duration of EV-D68 RNA shedding in the upper respiratory tract was 12 (range 7-15) days from symptom onset. The most common symptoms were nasal congestion (100%), cough (92.9%), difficulty breathing (78.6%), and wheezing (57.1%). The median illness duration was 20 (range 11-24) days. Understanding the duration of RNA shedding can inform the expected rate and timing of EV-D68 detection in associated acute flaccid myelitis cases and help guide public health measures.

INTRODUCTION: People with haemophilia's life expectancies have improved over time. Whether progress has been experienced equitably is unknown. AIM: To examine recorded haemophilia death (rHD) rates according to race and ethnicity in the United States (US). METHODS: In this cohort study, rHDs were examined with US National Vital Statistics' 1999-2020 Multiple Cause-of-Death data. rHD was defined as having a haemophilia A (D66) or B (D67) ICD-10 code in the death certificate (underlying or multiple causes of death). Age-adjusted rHD rates were compared with age-adjusted rate ratios (aRR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI). RESULTS: There were 3115 rHDs in males with an rHD rate of 0.98 per 1 million males. Between 1999 and 2020, rHD rates declined by 46% in NH (Non-Hispanic) White, 44% in NH Black (aRR = 0.56, 95%CI 0.43, 0.74), and 42% in Hispanic (aRR = 0.58, 95%CI 0.39, 0.88) males. However, rHD rates remained higher and were on average 30% greater in NH Black versus NH White males (aRR = 1.30 95% CI 1.16, 1.46). Among males with rHD, the median age at death rose from 54.5 to 65.5 years between 1999 and 2020 and was 12 years lower in NH Black (56 years) versus NH White (68 years) males in 2010-2020. There were 930 females with rHD, with an age-adjusted rate of 0.22 per 1 million females, which was consistent between 1999 and 2020. CONCLUSION: Reported haemophilia-death rates improved in males across all race/ethnicities, but rates were higher Black versus White males. Given the inherent limitations of the current study's data source, further investigation of survival rates and disparities in haemophilia are needed.

Background Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for SARS-CoV-2 antigens (Ag) that can be performed at point-of-care (POC) can supplement molecular testing and help mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Deployment of an Ag RDT requires an understanding of its operational and performance characteristics under real-world conditions and in relevant subpopulations. We evaluated the Abbott BinaxNOW™ COVID-19 Ag Card in a high-throughput, drive-through, free community testing site in Massachusetts (MA) using anterior nasal (AN) swab RT-PCR for clinical testing.Methods Individuals presenting for molecular testing in two of seven lanes were offered the opportunity to also receive BinaxNOW testing. Dual AN swabs were collected from symptomatic and asymptomatic children (≤ 18 years) and adults. BinaxNOW testing was performed in a testing pod with temperature/humidity monitoring. One individual performed testing and official result reporting for each test, but most tests had a second independent reading to assess inter-operator agreement. Positive BinaxNOW results were scored as faint, medium, or strong. Positive BinaxNOW results were reported to patients by phone and they were instructed to isolate pending RT-PCR results. The paired RT-PCR result was the reference for sensitivity and specificity calculations.Results Of 2482 participants, 1380 adults and 928 children had paired RT-PCR/BinaxNOW results and complete symptom data. 974/1380 (71%) adults and 829/928 (89%) children were asymptomatic. BinaxNOW had 96.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 90.0-99.3) sensitivity and 100% (98.6-100.0) specificity in adults within 7 days of symptoms, and 84.6% (65.1-95.6) sensitivity and 100% (94.5-100.0) specificity in children within 7 days of symptoms. Sensitivity and specificity in asymptomatic adults were 70.2% (56.6-81.6) and 99.6% (98.9-99.9), respectively, and in asymptomatic children were 65.4% (55.6-74.4) and 99.0% (98.0-99.6), respectively. By cycle threshold (Ct) value cutoff, sensitivity in all subgroups combined (n=292 RT-PCR-positive individuals) was 99.3% with Ct ≤25, 95.8% with ≤30, and 81.2% with ≤35. Twelve false positive BinaxNOW results (out of 2308 tests) were observed; in all twelve, the test bands were faint but otherwise normal, and were noted by both readers. One invalid BinaxNOW result was identified. Inter-operator agreement (positive versus negative BinaxNOW result) was 100% (n = 2230/2230 double reads). Each operator was able to process 20 RDTs per hour. In a separate set of 30 specimens (from individuals with symptoms ≤7 days) run at temperatures below the manufacturer’s recommended range (46-58.5°F), sensitivity was 66.7% and specificity 95.2%.Conclusions BinaxNOW had very high specificity in both adults and children and very high sensitivity in newly symptomatic adults. Overall, 95.8% sensitivity was observed with Ct ≤ 30. These data support public health recommendations for use of the BinaxNOW test in adults with symptoms for ≤7 days without RT-PCR confirmation. Excellent inter-operator agreement indicates that an individual can perform and read the BinaxNOW test alone. A skilled laboratorian can perform and read 20 tests per hour. Careful attention to temperature is critical.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis work was funded by the MA Department of Public Health. The community testing site was funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Building and Enhancing Epidemiology, Laboratory and Health Information Systems Capacity in Massachusetts--Enhancing Detection COVID Supplement (Grant # 6 NU50CK000518-01-08). BinaxNOW kits were supplied as part of the federal allocation to state health departments.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:The study was reviewed by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health IRB and deemed not human subject research.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data referred to in the manuscript are publicly available.

Background To facilitate deployment of point-of-care testing for SARS-CoV-2, we evaluated the Access Bio CareStart COVID-19 Antigen test in a high-throughput, drive-through, free community testing site using anterior nasal (AN) swab RT-PCR for clinical testing.Methods Consenting symptomatic and asymptomatic children (≤18 years) and adults received dual AN swabs. CareStart testing was performed with temperature/humidity monitoring. All tests had two independent reads to assess inter-operator agreement. Patients with positive CareStart results were called and instructed to isolate pending RT-PCR results. The paired RT-PCR result was the reference for sensitivity and specificity calculations.Results Of 1603 participants, 1245 adults and 253 children had paired RT-PCR/CareStart results and complete symptom data. 83% of adults and 87% of children were asymptomatic. CareStart sensitivity/specificity were 84.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 71.1-93.7)/97.2% (92.0-99.4) and 85.7% (42.1-99.6)/89.5% (66.9-98.7) in adults and children, respectively, within 5 days of symptoms. Sensitivity/specificity were 50.0% (41.0-59.0)/99.1% (98.3-99.6) in asymptomatic adults and 51.4% (34.4-68.1)/97.8% (94.5-99.4) in asymptomatic children. Sensitivity in all 234 RT-PCR-positive people was 96.3% with cycle threshold (Ct) ≤25, 79.6% with Ct ≤30, and 61.4% with Ct ≤35. All 21 false positive CareStart tests had faint but normal bands. Inter-operator agreement was 99.5%. Operational challenges included identification of faint test bands and inconsistent swab elution volumes.Conclusions CareStart had high sensitivity in people with Ct ≤25 and moderate sensitivity in symptomatic people overall. Specificity was unexpectedly lower in symptomatic versus asymptomatic people. Excellent inter-operator agreement was observed, but operational challenges indicate that operator training is warranted.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis work was funded by the MA Department of Public Health. The community testing site and the work of N.R.P. were funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Building and Enhancing Epidemiology, Laboratory and Health Information Systems Capacity in Massachusetts - Enhancing Detection COVID Supplement (Grant # 6 NU50CK000518-01-08). CareStart kits were donated by the manufacturer.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:The study was reviewed by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health IRB and deemed not human subjects research.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data referred to in the manuscript are available.

SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys can estimate cumulative incidence for monitoring epidemics but require characterization of employed serological assays performance to inform testing algorithm development and interpretation of results. We conducted a multi-laboratory evaluation of 21 commercial high-throughput SARS-CoV-2 serological assays using blinded panels of 1,000 highly-characterized blood-donor specimens. Assays demonstrated a range of sensitivities (96%-63%), specificities (99%-96%) and precision (IIC 0.55-0.99). Durability of antibody detection in longitudinal samples was dependent on assay format and immunoglobulin target, with anti-spike, direct, or total Ig assays demonstrating more stable, or increasing reactivity over time than anti-nucleocapsid, indirect, or IgG assays. Assays with high sensitivity, specificity and durable antibody detection are ideal for serosurveillance. Less sensitive assays demonstrating waning reactivity are appropriate for other applications, including characterizing antibody responses after infection and vaccination, and detection of anamnestic boosting by reinfections and vaccine breakthrough infections. Assay performance must be evaluated in the context of the intended use.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis work was supported by research contracts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Contract 75D30120C08170).Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:All blood donors consented to use of de-identified, residual specimens for further research purposes. UCSF IRB provided explicit approval for VRI self-certification that use of the de-identified CCP donations in this study does not meet the criteria for human subjects research. CDC investigators reviewed and relied on this determination as consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy (45 C.F.R. part 46, 21 C.F.R. part 56; 42 U.S.C. Sect. 241(d); 5 U.S.C. Sect. 552a; 44 U.S.C. Sect. 3501).All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesThe analytic data set is available upon request.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information&amp; Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. &amp; Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia &amp; Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, &amp; Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44