The purpose of this report is to provide guidance to users of NCHS data in the selection of modeling options when using the NCI Joinpoint regression software to analyze trends. This report complements another report, "National Center for Health Statistics Guidelines for Analysis of Trends." Considerations are presented for selecting the modeling options, with examples illustrating the choices. The tradeoffs and consequences of choosing the various modeling options using data from NCHS data systems are discussed.encounters.

By November 30, 2021, approximately 130,781 COVID-19-associated deaths, one in six of all U.S. deaths from COVID-19, had occurred in California and New York.* COVID-19 vaccination protects against infection with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), associated severe illness, and death (1,2); among those who survive, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection also confers protection against severe outcomes in the event of reinfection (3,4). The relative magnitude and duration of infection- and vaccine-derived protection, alone and together, can guide public health planning and epidemic forecasting. To examine the impact of primary COVID-19 vaccination and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection on COVID-19 incidence and hospitalization rates, statewide testing, surveillance, and COVID-19 immunization data from California and New York (which account for 18% of the U.S. population) were analyzed. Four cohorts of adults aged ≥18 years were considered: persons who were 1) unvaccinated with no previous laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, 2) vaccinated (14 days after completion of a primary COVID-19 vaccination series) with no previous COVID-19 diagnosis, 3) unvaccinated with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, and 4) vaccinated with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. Age-adjusted hazard rates of incident laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in both states were compared among cohorts, and in California, hospitalizations during May 30-November 20, 2021, were also compared. During the study period, COVID-19 incidence in both states was highest among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis compared with that among the other three groups. During the week beginning May 30, 2021, compared with COVID-19 case rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, COVID-19 case rates were 19.9-fold (California) and 18.4-fold (New York) lower among vaccinated persons without a previous diagnosis; 7.2-fold (California) and 9.9-fold lower (New York) among unvaccinated persons with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis; and 9.6-fold (California) and 8.5-fold lower (New York) among vaccinated persons with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. During the same period, compared with hospitalization rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization rates in California followed a similar pattern. These relationships changed after the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant became predominant (i.e., accounted for >50% of sequenced isolates) in late June and July. By the week beginning October 3, compared with COVID-19 cases rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, case rates among vaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis were 6.2-fold (California) and 4.5-fold (New York) lower; rates were substantially lower among both groups with previous COVID-19 diagnoses, including 29.0-fold (California) and 14.7-fold lower (New York) among unvaccinated persons with a previous diagnosis, and 32.5-fold (California) and 19.8-fold lower (New York) among vaccinated persons with a previous diagnosis of COVID-19. During the same period, compared with hospitalization rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization rates in California followed a similar pattern. These results demonstrate that vaccination protects against COVID-19 and related hospitalization, and that surviving a previous infection protects against a reinfection and related hospitalization. Importantly, infection-derived protection was higher after the Delta variant became predominant, a time when vaccine-induced immunity for many persons declined because of immune evasion and immunologic waning (2,5,6). Similar cohort data accounting for booster doses needs to be assessed, as new variants, including Omicron, circulate. Although the epidemiology of COVID-19 might change with the emergence of new variants, vaccination remains the safest strategy to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated complications; all eligible persons should be up to date with COVID-19 vaccination. Additional recommendations for vaccine doses might be warranted in the future as the virus and immunity levels change.

Yellow fever virus (YFV) live attenuated vaccine can, in rare cases, cause life-threatening disease, typically in patients with no previous history of severe viral illness. Autosomal recessive (AR) complete IFNAR1 deficiency was reported in one 12-yr-old patient. Here, we studied seven other previously healthy patients aged 13 to 80 yr with unexplained life-threatening YFV vaccine-associated disease. One 13-yr-old patient had AR complete IFNAR2 deficiency. Three other patients vaccinated at the ages of 47, 57, and 64 yr had high titers of circulating auto-Abs against at least 14 of the 17 individual type I IFNs. These antibodies were recently shown to underlie at least 10% of cases of life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia. The auto-Abs were neutralizing in vitro, blocking the protective effect of IFN-α2 against YFV vaccine strains. AR IFNAR1 or IFNAR2 deficiency and neutralizing auto-Abs against type I IFNs thus accounted for more than half the cases of life-threatening YFV vaccine-associated disease studied here. Previously healthy subjects could be tested for both predispositions before anti-YFV vaccination.

PURPOSE: Cancer treatment may be affected by comorbidities; however, studies are limited. The purpose of this study is to examine the frequency of comorbidities at visits by patients with breast, prostate, colorectal, and lung cancer and to estimate frequency of a prescription for antineoplastic drugs being included in the treatment received at visits by patients with cancer and concomitant comorbidities. METHODS: We used nationally representative data on visits to office-based physicians from the 2010-2016 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and selected visits by adults with breast, prostate, colorectal, or lung cancer (n = 4,672). Nineteen comorbid conditions were examined. Descriptive statistics were calculated for visits by cancer patients with 0, 1, and >/= 2 comorbidities. RESULTS: From 2010-2016, a total of 10.2 million physician office visits were made annually by adult patients with breast, prostate, colorectal, or lung cancer. Among US visits by adult patients with breast, prostate, colorectal, or lung cancer, 56.3% were by patients with >/= 1 comorbidity. Hypertension was the most frequently observed comorbidity (37.7%), followed by hyperlipidemia (19.0%) and diabetes (12.3%). Antineoplastic drugs were prescribed in 33.5% of the visits and prescribed at a lower percentage among visits by cancer patients with COPD (21.3% versus 34.3% of visits by cancer patients without COPD) and heart disease (22.7% versus 34.2% of visits by cancer patients without heart disease). CONCLUSION: Our study provides information about comorbidities in cancer patients being treated by office-based physicians in an ambulatory setting.

In the U.S., 18.5% of U.S. youth aged 2–19 years have obesity.1 Since 2003, the American Academy of Pediatrics has recommended measurement of weight and height at each preventive visit for all children and adolescents to screen for obesity; current guidelines apply to those aged ≥2 years.2–4 | | This study analyzed trends and differences by age in preventive visits of U.S. youth aged 2–19 years to pediatricians and family medicine physicians in which weight and height were recorded between 2005 and 2016.

The application of biomarkers for 'recent' infection in cross-sectional HIV incidence surveillance requires the estimation of critical biomarker characteristics. Various approaches have been employed for using longitudinal data to estimate the Mean Duration of Recent Infection (MDRI) - the average time in the 'recent' state. In this systematic benchmarking of MDRI estimation approaches, a simulation platform was used to measure accuracy and precision of over twenty approaches, in thirty scenarios capturing various study designs, subject behaviors and test dynamics that may be encountered in practice. Results highlight that assuming a single continuous sojourn in the 'recent' state can produce substantial bias. Simple interpolation provides useful MDRI estimates provided subjects are tested at regular intervals. Regression performs the best - while 'random effects' describe the subject-clustering in the data, regression models without random effects proved easy to implement, stable, and of similar accuracy in scenarios considered; robustness to parametric assumptions was improved by regressing 'recent'/'non-recent' classifications rather than continuous biomarker readings. All approaches were vulnerable to incorrect assumptions about subjects' (unobserved) infection times. Results provided show the relationships between MDRI estimation performance and the number of subjects, inter-visit intervals, missed visits, loss to follow-up, and aspects of biomarker signal and noise.

RATIONALE: There are conflicting findings regarding the link between sleep apnea and cognitive dysfunction. OBJECTIVE: Investigate associations between indicators of sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) and cognitive function in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and assess effect modification by the apolipoprotein epsilon-4 (APOE-epsilon4) allele. METHODS: A diverse population (N=1,752) underwent Type 2 in-home polysomnography, which included measurement of % sleep time <90% oxyhemoglobin saturation (%Sat<90%) and apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Epworth Sleepiness Scale score (ESS) and sleep apnea syndrome (SAS; AHI > 5 and ESS> 10) were also analyzed. Cognitive outcomes included the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI); Digit Symbol Coding Test (DSC); and Digit Span Tests (DST) Forward and Backward. RESULTS: Participants were 45.4% male, age 68.1(standard deviation: 9.1) years with a median AHI=9.0 and mean ESS=6.0. Approximately, 9.7% had SAS and 26.8% had at least one copy of the APOepsilon4 allele. In adjusted analyses, a one standard deviation increase in %Sat<90% and ESS score were associated with a poorer attention and memory assessed by the DST Forward score (beta=-0.12 (standard error: 0.06) and beta=-0.13 (0.06), respectively; P<0.05). SAS and higher ESS scores were also associated with poorer attention and processing speed as measured by the DSC, beta=-0.69 (0.35) and beta=-1.42 (0.35), respectively (P<0.05). The presence of APOE-epsilon4 allele modified the associations of %Sat<90% with DST forward and of ESS with DSCT, Pinteraction<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Overnight hypoxemia and sleepiness were associated with cognition. The average effect estimates were small, similar to effects estimated for several other individual dementia risk factors. Associations were strongest in APOE-epsilon4 risk allele carriers. Our results: 1) suggest that SDB be considered among a group of modifiable dementia risk factors; and 2) highlight the potential vulnerability of APOE-epsilon4 risk allele carriers with SDB.

P. vivax infection during pregnancy has been associated with poor outcomes such as anemia, low birth weight and congenital malaria, thus representing an important global health problem. However, no vaccine is currently available for its prevention. Vir genes were the first putative virulent factors associated with P. vivax infections, yet very few studies have examined their potential role as targets of immunity. We investigated the immunogenic properties of five VIR proteins and two long synthetic peptides containing conserved VIR sequences (PvLP1 and PvLP2) in the context of the PregVax cohort study including women from five malaria endemic countries: Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, India and Papua New Guinea (PNG) at different timepoints during and after pregnancy. Antibody responses against all antigens were detected in all populations, with PNG women presenting the highest levels overall. P. vivax infection at sample collection time was positively associated with antibody levels against PvLP1 (fold-increase: 1.60 at recruitment -first antenatal visit-) and PvLP2 (fold-increase: 1.63 at delivery), and P. falciparum co-infection was found to increase those responses (for PvLP1 at recruitment, fold-increase: 2.25). Levels of IgG against two VIR proteins at delivery were associated with higher birth weight (27 g increase per duplicating antibody levels, p<0.05). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells from PNG uninfected pregnant women had significantly higher antigen-specific IFN-gamma TH1 responses (p=0.006) and secreted less pro-inflammatory cytokines TNF and IL-6 after PvLP2 stimulation than P. vivax-infected women (p<0.05). These data demonstrate that VIR antigens induce the natural acquisition of antibody and T cell memory responses that might be important in immunity to P. vivax during pregnancy in very diverse geographical settings.

Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) is a safe, attenuated orthopoxvirus that is being developed as a vaccine vector but has demonstrated limited immunogenicity in several early-phase clinical trials. Our objective was to rationally improve the immunogenicity of MVA-based HIV/AIDS vaccines via the targeted deletion of specific poxvirus immune-modulatory genes. Vaccines expressing codon-optimized HIV subtype C consensus Env and Gag antigens were generated from MVA vector backbones that (i) harbor simultaneous deletions of four viral immune-modulatory genes, encoding an interleukin-18 (IL-18) binding protein, an IL-1beta receptor, a dominant negative Toll/IL-1 signaling adapter, and CC-chemokine binding protein (MVADelta4-HIV); (ii) harbor a deletion of an additional (fifth) viral gene, encoding uracil-DNA glycosylase (MVADelta5-HIV); or (iii) represent the parental MVA backbone as a control (MVA-HIV). We performed head-to-head comparisons of the cellular and humoral immune responses that were elicited by these vectors during homologous prime-boost immunization regimens utilizing either high-dose (2 x 10(8) PFU) or low-dose (1 x 10(7) PFU) intramuscular immunization of rhesus macaques. At all time points, a majority of the HIV-specific T cell responses, elicited by all vectors, were directed against Env, rather than Gag, determinants, as previously observed with other vector systems. Both modified vectors elicited up to 6-fold-higher frequencies of HIV-specific CD8 and CD4 T cell responses and up to 25-fold-higher titers of Env (gp120)-specific binding (nonneutralizing) antibody responses that were relatively transient in nature. While the correlates of protection against HIV infection remain incompletely defined, our results indicate that the rational deletion of specific genes from MVA vectors can positively alter their cellular and humoral immunogenicity profiles in nonhuman primates.