Last data update: Sep 16, 2024. (Total: 47680 publications since 2009)
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Query Trace: Riley H [original query] |
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Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: lessons from Covid-19
Lipsitch M , Bassett MT , Brownstein JS , Elliott P , Eyre D , Grabowski MK , Hay JA , Johansson MA , Kissler SM , Larremore DB , Layden JE , Lessler J , Lynfield R , MacCannell D , Madoff LC , Metcalf CJE , Meyers LA , Ofori SK , Quinn C , Bento AI , Reich NG , Riley S , Rosenfeld R , Samore MH , Sampath R , Slayton RB , Swerdlow DL , Truelove S , Varma JK , Grad YH . Front Public Health 2024 12 1408193 The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to upgrade systems for infectious disease surveillance and forecasting and modeling of the spread of infection, both of which inform evidence-based public health guidance and policies. Here, we discuss requirements for an effective surveillance system to support decision making during a pandemic, drawing on the lessons of COVID-19 in the U.S., while looking to jurisdictions in the U.S. and beyond to learn lessons about the value of specific data types. In this report, we define the range of decisions for which surveillance data are required, the data elements needed to inform these decisions and to calibrate inputs and outputs of transmission-dynamic models, and the types of data needed to inform decisions by state, territorial, local, and tribal health authorities. We define actions needed to ensure that such data will be available and consider the contribution of such efforts to improving health equity. |
Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations
Mathis SM , Webber AE , León TM , Murray EL , Sun M , White LA , Brooks LC , Green A , Hu AJ , Rosenfeld R , Shemetov D , Tibshirani RJ , McDonald DJ , Kandula S , Pei S , Yaari R , Yamana TK , Shaman J , Agarwal P , Balusu S , Gururajan G , Kamarthi H , Prakash BA , Raman R , Zhao Z , Rodríguez A , Meiyappan A , Omar S , Baccam P , Gurung HL , Suchoski BT , Stage SA , Ajelli M , Kummer AG , Litvinova M , Ventura PC , Wadsworth S , Niemi J , Carcelen E , Hill AL , Loo SL , McKee CD , Sato K , Smith C , Truelove S , Jung SM , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , McAndrew T , Ye W , Bosse N , Hlavacek WS , Lin YT , Mallela A , Gibson GC , Chen Y , Lamm SM , Lee J , Posner RG , Perofsky AC , Viboud C , Clemente L , Lu F , Meyer AG , Santillana M , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Ben-Nun M , Riley P , Turtle J , Hulme-Lowe C , Jessa S , Nagraj VP , Turner SD , Williams D , Basu A , Drake JM , Fox SJ , Suez E , Cojocaru MG , Thommes EW , Cramer EY , Gerding A , Stark A , Ray EL , Reich NG , Shandross L , Wattanachit N , Wang Y , Zorn MW , Aawar MA , Srivastava A , Meyers LA , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis BL , Marathe M , Venkatramanan S , Butler P , Farabow A , Ramakrishnan N , Muralidhar N , Reed C , Biggerstaff M , Borchering RK . Nat Commun 2024 15 (1) 6289 Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2(nd) most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5(th) most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change. |
Cost-effectiveness of mask mandates on subways to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States
Park J , Joo H , Kim D , Mase S , Christensen D , Maskery BA . PLoS One 2024 19 (5) e0302199 BACKGROUND: Community-based mask wearing has been shown to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, few studies have conducted an economic evaluation of mask mandates, specifically in public transportation settings. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of implementing mask mandates for subway passengers in the United States by evaluating its potential to reduce COVID-19 transmission during subway travel. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We assessed the health impacts and costs of subway mask mandates compared to mask recommendations based on the number of infections that would occur during subway travel in the U.S. Using a combined box and Wells-Riley infection model, we estimated monthly infections, hospitalizations, and deaths averted under a mask mandate scenario as compared to a mask recommendation scenario. The analysis included costs of implementing mask mandates and COVID-19 treatment from a limited societal perspective. The cost-effectiveness (net cost per averted death) of mandates was estimated for three different periods based on dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants: Alpha, Beta, and Gamma (November 2020 to February 2021); Delta (July to October 2021); and early Omicron (January to March 2022). RESULTS: Compared with mask recommendations only, mask mandates were cost-effective across all periods, with costs per averted death less than a threshold of $11.4 million (ranging from cost-saving to $3 million per averted death). Additionally, mask mandates were more cost-effective during the early Omicron period than the other two periods and were cost saving in January 2022. Our findings showed that mandates remained cost-effective when accounting for uncertainties in input parameters (e.g., even if mandates only resulted in small increases in mask usage by subway ridership). CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the economic value of mask mandates on subways, particularly during high virus transmissibility periods, during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study may inform stakeholders on mask mandate decisions during future outbreaks of novel viral respiratory diseases. |
Planning for the future of maternal immunization: Building on lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic
Meaney-Delman D , Carroll S , Polen K , Jatlaoui TC , Meyer S , Oliver S , Gee J , Shimabukuro T , Razzaghi H , Riley L , Galang RR , Tong V , Gilboa S , Ellington S , Cohn A . Vaccine 2024 As the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, the clinical and public health community raced to understand SARS-CoV-2 infection and develop life-saving vaccines. Pregnant persons were disproportionately impacted, experiencing more severe illness and adverse pregnancy outcomes. And yet, when COVID-19 vaccines became available in late 2020, safety and efficacy data were not available to inform their use during pregnancy because pregnant persons were excluded from pre-authorization clinical trials. Concerns about vaccine safety during pregnancy and misinformation linking vaccination and infertility circulated widely, creating a lack of vaccine confidence. Many pregnant people initially chose not to get vaccinated, and while vaccination rates rose after safety and effectiveness data became available, COVID-19 vaccine acceptance was suboptimal and varied across racial and ethnic distribution of the pregnant population. The COVID-19 pandemic experience provided valuable insights that can inform current and future approaches to maternal vaccination against. |
COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Technical (VaST) work group: Enhancing vaccine safety monitoring during the pandemic
Markowitz LE , Hopkins RH Jr , Broder KR , Lee GM , Edwards KM , Daley MF , Jackson LA , Nelson JC , Riley LE , McNally VV , Schechter R , Whitley-Williams PN , Cunningham F , Clark M , Ryan M , Farizo KM , Wong HL , Kelman J , Beresnev T , Marshall V , Shay DK , Gee J , Woo J , McNeil MM , Su JR , Shimabukuro TT , Wharton M , Keipp Talbot H . Vaccine 2024 During the COVID-19 pandemic, candidate COVID-19 vaccines were being developed for potential use in the United States on an unprecedented, accelerated schedule. It was anticipated that once available, under U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or FDA approval, COVID-19 vaccines would be broadly used and potentially administered to millions of individuals in a short period of time. Intensive monitoring in the post-EUA/licensure period would be necessary for timely detection and assessment of potential safety concerns. To address this, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) convened an Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) work group focused solely on COVID-19 vaccine safety, consisting of independent vaccine safety experts and representatives from federal agencies - the ACIP COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Technical Work Group (VaST). This report provides an overview of the organization and activities of VaST, summarizes data reviewed as part of the comprehensive effort to monitor vaccine safety during the COVID-19 pandemic, and highlights selected actions taken by CDC, ACIP, and FDA in response to accumulating post-authorization safety data. VaST convened regular meetings over the course of 29 months, from November 2020 through April 2023; through March 2023 FDA issued EUAs for six COVID-19 vaccines from four different manufacturers and subsequently licensed two of these COVID-19 vaccines. The independent vaccine safety experts collaborated with federal agencies to ensure timely assessment of vaccine safety data during this time. VaST worked closely with the ACIP COVID-19 Vaccines Work Group; that work group used safety data and VaST's assessments for benefit-risk assessments and guidance for COVID-19 vaccination policy. Safety topics reviewed by VaST included those identified in safety monitoring systems and other topics of scientific or public interest. VaST provided guidance to CDC's COVID-19 vaccine safety monitoring efforts, provided a forum for review of data from several U.S. government vaccine safety systems, and assured that a diverse group of scientists and clinicians, external to the federal government, promptly reviewed vaccine safety data. In the event of a future pandemic or other biological public health emergency, the VaST model could be used to strengthen vaccine safety monitoring, enhance public confidence, and increase transparency through incorporation of independent, non-government safety experts into the monitoring process, and through strong collaboration among federal and other partners. |
Pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron periods of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and health outcomes during delivery hospitalization
Carlson J , Simeone RM , Ellington S , Galang R , DeSisto CL , Fleming-Dutra K , Riley L , Meaney-Delman D , Tong VT . Obstet Gynecol 2023 143 (1) 131-138 OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis at delivery and adverse maternal health and pregnancy outcomes during pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron variant predominance, with a focus on the time period of Omicron variant predominance. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional observational study with data from delivery hospitalizations in the Premier Healthcare Database from February 2020 to August 2023. The pre-Delta (February 2020-June 2021), Delta (July 2021-December 2021), and Omicron (January 2022-August 2023) periods of variant predominance were examined. Exposure to COVID-19 was identified by having a diagnostic code for COVID-19 during the delivery hospitalization. Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) were calculated to compare the risks of adverse maternal and pregnancy outcomes for women with and without COVID-19 diagnoses at the time of delivery for each variant period. RESULTS: Among 2,990,973 women with delivery hospitalizations, 1.9% (n=56,618) had COVID-19 diagnoses noted at delivery admission discharge, including 26,053 during the Omicron period. Across all variant time periods, the prevalence of many adverse maternal and pregnancy outcomes during the delivery hospitalization was significantly higher for pregnant women with COVID-19 compared with pregnant women without COVID-19. In adjusted models, COVID-19 during the Omicron period was associated with significant increased risks for maternal sepsis (COVID-19: 0.4% vs no COVID-19: 0.1%; aPR 3.32, 95% CI, 2.70-4.08), acute respiratory distress syndrome (0.6% vs 0.1%; aPR 6.19, 95% CI, 5.26-7.29), shock (0.2% vs 0.1%; aPR 2.14, 95% CI, 1.62-2.84), renal failure (0.5% vs 0.2%; aPR 2.08, 95% CI, 1.73-2.49), intensive care unit admission (2.7% vs 1.7%; aPR 1.64, 95% CI, 1.52-1.77), mechanical ventilation (0.3% vs 0.1%; aPR 3.15, 95% CI, 2.52-3.93), in-hospital death (0.03% vs 0.01%; aPR 5.00, 95% CI, 2.30-10.90), stillbirth (0.7% vs 0.6%; aPR 1.17, 95% CI, 1.01-1.36), and preterm delivery (12.3% vs 9.6%; aPR 1.28, 95% CI, 1.24-1.33). CONCLUSION: Despite the possibility of some level of immunity due to previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, vaccination, or testing differences, risks of adverse outcomes associated with COVID-19 diagnosis at delivery remained elevated during the Omicron variant time period. |
Pathogenic Leptospira are widespread in the urban wildlife of southern California
Helman SK , Tokuyama AFN , Mummah RO , Stone NE , Gamble MW , Snedden CE , Borremans B , Gomez ACR , Cox C , Nussbaum J , Tweedt I , Haake DA , Galloway RL , Monzón J , Riley SPD , Sikich JA , Brown J , Friscia A , Sahl JW , Wagner DM , Lynch JW , Prager KC , Lloyd-Smith JO . Sci Rep 2023 13 (1) 14368 Leptospirosis, the most widespread zoonotic disease in the world, is broadly understudied in multi-host wildlife systems. Knowledge gaps regarding Leptospira circulation in wildlife, particularly in densely populated areas, contribute to frequent misdiagnoses in humans and domestic animals. We assessed Leptospira prevalence levels and risk factors in five target wildlife species across the greater Los Angeles region: striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), raccoons (Procyon lotor), coyotes (Canis latrans), Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana), and fox squirrels (Sciurus niger). We sampled more than 960 individual animals, including over 700 from target species in the greater Los Angeles region, and an additional 266 sampled opportunistically from other California regions and species. In the five target species seroprevalences ranged from 5 to 60%, and infection prevalences ranged from 0.8 to 15.2% in all except fox squirrels (0%). Leptospira phylogenomics and patterns of serologic reactivity suggest that mainland terrestrial wildlife, particularly mesocarnivores, could be the source of repeated observed introductions of Leptospira into local marine and island ecosystems. Overall, we found evidence of widespread Leptospira exposure in wildlife across Los Angeles and surrounding regions. This indicates exposure risk for humans and domestic animals and highlights that this pathogen can circulate endemically in many wildlife species even in densely populated urban areas. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Social contact patterns among employees in 3 U.S. companies during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, April to June 2020 (preprint)
Kiti MC , Aguolu OG , Liu CY , Mesa AR , Regina R , Willebrand K , Couzens C , Bartelsmeyer T , Nelson KN , Jenness S , Riley S , Melegaro A , Ahmed F , Malik F , Lopman BA , Omer SB . medRxiv 2020 2020.10.14.20212423 Importance Devising control strategies against diseases such as COVID-19 require understanding of contextual social mixing and contact patterns. There has been no standardized multi-site social contact study conducted in workplace settings in the United States that can be used to broadly inform pandemic preparedness policy in these settings.Objective The study aimed to characterize the patterns of social contacts and mixing across workplace environments, including on-site or when teleworking.Design This was a cross-sectional non-probability survey that used standardized social contact diaries to collect data. Employees were requested to record their physical and non-physical contacts in a diary over two consecutive days, documented at the end of each day. Employees from each company were enrolled through email and electronic diaries sent as individual links. Data were collected from April to June 2020.Setting Two multinational consulting companies and one university administrative department, all located in Georgia, USA.Participants Employees opted into the study by accepting the invitation on a link sent via email.Main Outcome The outcome was median number of contacts per person per day. This was stratified by day of data collection, age, sex, race and ethnicity.Results Of 3,835 employees approached, 357 (9.3%) completed the first day of contact diary of which 304 completed both days of contact diary. There was a median of 2 contacts (IQR: 1-4, range: 0-21) per respondent on both day one and two. The majority (55%) of contacts involved conversation only, occurred at home (64%), and cumulatively lasted more than 4 hours (38%). Most contacts were repeated, and within same age groups, though participants aged 30-59 years reported substantial inter-generational mixing with children.Conclusion Participating employees in 3 surveyed workplaces reported few contacts, similar to studies from the UK and China when shelter-in-place orders were in effect during the pandemic. Many contacts were repeated which may limit the spread of infection. Future rounds are planned to assess changes in contact patterns when employees resume work in the office after the lockdown due to COVID-19 pandemic.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia (Comprehensively profiling social mixing patterns in workplace settings to model pandemic influenza transmission; U01-CK000572)Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:Ethical approval was given by Yale University (IRB number 2000026906).All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll de-identified data and code used for analysis are available in Github through the link provided. https://github.com/lopmanlab/corpmix |
Pathogenic Leptospira are widespread in the urban wildlife of southern California (preprint)
Helman SK , Tokuyama AFN , Mummah RO , Gamble MW , Snedden CE , Borremans B , Gomez ACR , Cox C , Nussbaum J , Tweedt I , Haake DA , Galloway RL , Monzon J , Riley SPD , Sikich JA , Brown J , Friscia A , Lynch JW , Prager KC , Lloyd-Smith JO . bioRxiv 2023 15 Leptospirosis is the most widespread zoonotic disease in the world, yet it is broadly understudied in multi-host wildlife systems. Knowledge gaps regarding Leptospira circulation in wildlife, particularly in densely populated areas, contribute to frequent misdiagnoses in humans and domestic animals. We assessed Leptospira prevalence levels and risk factors in five target wildlife species across the greater Los Angeles region: striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), Northern raccoons (Procyon lotor), coyotes (Canis latrans), Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana), and fox squirrels (Sciurus niger). We sampled more than 960 individual animals, including over 700 from target species in the greater Los Angeles region, and an additional 260 sampled opportunistically from other regions and species. In the five target species, seroprevalences ranged from 5-60% and active infection prevalences ranged from 0.8-15.2% in all except fox squirrels (0%). Patterns of serologic reactivity suggest that mainland terrestrial wildlife, particularly mesocarnivores, could be the source of repeated observed introductions of Leptospira into local marine and island ecosystems. Overall, we found evidence of widespread Leptospira exposure in wildlife across Los Angeles and surrounding regions. This indicates exposure risk for humans and domestic animals and highlights that this pathogen can circulate endemically in many wildlife species even in densely populated urban areas. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. |
Progress in expanding newborn screening in the United States
Grosse SD , Cuthbert C , Gaffney M , Gaviglio A , Hinton CF , Kellar-Guenther Y , Kemper AR , McKasson S , Ojodu J , Riley C , Singh S , Sontag MK , Shapira SK . Am J Hum Genet 2023 110 (6) 1015-1016 We read with interest the recent article by Kingsmore et al., who suggest that universal newborn rapid whole-genome sequencing is attractive for “comprehensive” newborn screening (NBS).1 Existing US NBS programs are based on mandated routine testing of newborns; evidence-based decision-making processes exist for this testing.2 Whether policy makers also consider routine rapid whole-genome sequencing of newborns to be warranted may depend on the resolution of a number of evidentiary, ethical, legal, social, and economic issues.3 Kingsmore et al. suggest that sequencing can complement existing public-health NBS programs but acknowledge the challenge of reconciling universal or near-universal genomic screening with informed parental consent and the allowable secondary use of genomic information.1 |
Coding-complete genome sequences of G6P[14] rotavirus strain detected in a human stool specimen within the United States
Casey-Moore MC , Mijatovic-Rustempasic S , Jaimes J , Perkins C , Riley AM , Cortese MM , Gautam R , Bowen MD . Microbiol Resour Announc 2023 12 (6) e0000823 In this study, we report the detection of a G6P[14] rotavirus strain from a human stool sample within the United States. The full genotype constellation of the G6P[14] strain was identified as G6-P[14]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A11-N2-T6-E2-H3. |
Habitat connectivity and host relatedness influence virus spread across an urbanising landscape in a fragmentation-sensitive carnivore.
Kozakiewicz CP , Burridge CP , Lee JS , Kraberger SJ , Fountain-Jones NM , Fisher RN , Lyren LM , Jennings MK , Riley SPD , Serieys LEK , Craft ME , Funk WC , Crooks KR , VandeWoude S , Carver S . Virus Evol 2023 9 (1) veac122 Spatially heterogeneous landscape factors such as urbanisation can have substantial effects on the severity and spread of wildlife diseases. However, research linking patterns of pathogen transmission to landscape features remains rare. Using a combination of phylogeographic and machine learning approaches, we tested the influence of landscape and host factors on feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV(Lru)) genetic variation and spread among bobcats (Lynx rufus) sampled from coastal southern California. We found evidence for increased rates of FIV(Lru) lineage spread through areas of higher vegetation density. Furthermore, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variation among FIV(Lru) sequences was associated with host genetic distances and geographic location, with FIV(Lru) genetic discontinuities precisely correlating with known urban barriers to host dispersal. An effect of forest land cover on FIV(Lru) SNP variation was likely attributable to host population structure and differences in forest land cover between different populations. Taken together, these results suggest that the spread of FIV(Lru) is constrained by large-scale urban barriers to host movement. Although urbanisation at fine spatial scales did not appear to directly influence virus transmission or spread, we found evidence that viruses transmit and spread more quickly through areas containing higher proportions of natural habitat. These multiple lines of evidence demonstrate how urbanisation can change patterns of contact-dependent pathogen transmission and provide insights into how continued urban development may influence the incidence and management of wildlife disease. |
Evaluating vacant middle seats and masks as Coronavirus exposure reduction strategies in aircraft cabins using particle tracer experiments and computational fluid dynamics simulations.
Bennett JS , Mahmoud S , Dietrich W , Jones B , Hosni M . Eng Rep 2022 e12582 Aircraft cabins have high-performance ventilation systems, yet typically hold many persons in close proximity for long durations. The current study estimated airborne virus exposure and infection reductions when middle seats are vacant compared to full occupancy and when passengers wear surgical masks in aircraft. Tracer particle data reported by U.S. Transportation Command (TRANSCOM) and CFD simulations reported by Boeing were used along with NIOSH data, to build nonlinear regression models with particle exposure and distance from particle source as variables. These models that estimate exposure at given distances from the viral source were applied to evaluate exposure reductions from vacant middle seats. Reductions averaged 54% for the seat row where an infectious passenger is located and 36% for a 24-row cabin containing one infectious passenger, with middle seats vacant. Analysis of the TRANSCOM data showed that universal masking (surgical masks) reduced exposures by 62% and showed masking and physical distancing provide further reductions when practiced together. For a notional scenario involving 10 infectious passengers, compared with no intervention, masking, distancing, and both would prevent 6.2, 3.8, and 7.6 secondary infections, respectively, using the Wells–Riley equation. These results suggest distancing alone, masking alone, and these practiced together reduce SARS CoV-2 exposure risk in increasing order of effectiveness, when an infectious passenger is present. © 2022 The Authors. Engineering Reports published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. |
Education and employment as young adults living with spina bifida transition to adulthood in the USA: A study of the National Spina Bifida Patient Registry
Liu T , Ouyang L , Walker WO , Wiener JS , Woodward J , Castillo J , Wood HM , Tanaka ST , Adams R , Smith KA , O'Neil J , Williams TR , Ward EA , Bowman RM , Riley C . Dev Med Child Neurol 2022 65 (6) 821-830 AIM: To describe the education and employment transition experience of young adults with spina bifida (YASB) and investigate factors associated with employment. METHOD: We queried education and employment data from the US National Spina Bifida Patient Registry from 2009 to 2019. We applied generalized estimating equations models to analyze sociodemographic and disease-related factors associated with employment. RESULTS: A total of 1909 participants (850 males, 1059 females) aged 18 to 26 years contributed 4379 annual visits. Nearly 84% had myelomeningocele and, at last visit, the median age was 21 years (mean 21 years 5 months, SD 2 years 10 months). A total of 41.8% had at least some post-high school education, and 23.9% were employed. In a multivariable regression model, employment was significantly associated with education level, lower extremity functional level, bowel continence, insurance, and history of non-shunt surgery. This large, national sample of YASB demonstrated low rates of post-secondary education attainment and employment and several potentially modifiable factors associated with employment. INTERPRETATION: Specific sociodemographic, medical, and functional factors associated with employment are important for clinicians to consider when facilitating transition for YASB into adulthood. Additional research is needed to understand the impact of cognitive functioning and social determinants of health on transition success in YASB. |
Developing high-resolution population and settlement data for impactful malaria interventions in Zambia
Borkovska O , Pollard D , Hamainza B , Kooma E , Renn S , Schmidt J , Engin H , Heaton M , Miller JM , Psychas P , Riley C , Martin A , Nyirenda J , Bwalya F , Winters A , Sobel C . J Environ Public Health 2022 2022 2941013 Foundational high-resolution geospatial data products for population, settlements, infrastructure, and boundaries may greatly enhance the efficient planning of resource allocation during health sector interventions. To ensure the relevance and sustainability of such products, government partners must be involved from the beginning in their creation, improvement, and/or management, so they can be successfully applied to public health campaigns, such as malaria control and prevention. As an example, Zambia had an ambitious strategy of reaching the entire population with malaria vector control campaigns by late 2020 or early 2021, but they lacked the requisite accurate and up-to-date data on infrastructure and population distribution. To address this gap, the Geo-Referenced Infrastructure and Demographic Data for Development (GRID3) program, Akros, and other partners developed maps and planning templates to aid Zambia's National Malaria Elimination Program (NMEP) in operationalizing its strategy. |
Dietary and socioeconomic risk factors for fumonisin exposure among women of reproductive age in 18 municipalities in Guatemala from 2013 to 2014
Garsow AV , Torres OR , Matute JA , Riley RT , Harris JR , Lamichhane AP , McCotter O , Kowalcyk BB . PLoS Glob Public Health 2022 2 (8) e0000337 Fumonisin exposure is common in populations where maize is a dietary staple, such as in Guatemala, and has been associated with negative health outcomes including neural tube defects. The objective of this study was to estimate fumonisin B1 (FB1) exposure among Guatemalan reproductive-age women and develop a better understanding of the dietary and sociodemographic risk factors for exposure. A cross-sectional study in 18 municipalities in Guatemala was conducted. Midwives and study nurses enrolled consenting women and collected individual and household demographic and socioeconomic data. A food frequency questionnaire was administered to estimate quantity and types of food products consumed. A urine sample was collected and urinary fumonisin B1 (uFB1) concentration was measured. A univariable analysis was conducted to identify predictors of low/high uFB1. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In total, 775 women had analyzable urine samples. Higher uFB1 levels were associated with speaking Mayan (OR = 2.33, 95% CI:1.44-3.77), less than high school education (OR = 1.61, 95% CI:1.12-2.30), increasing dietary proportion of maize-based foods (OR = 1.02, 95% CI:1.01-1.03), and consumption of tostadas (fried tortillas) (OR = 1.11, 95% CI:1.02-1.22). Lower uFB1 levels were associated with consumption of highly processed maize-based foods (OR = 0.93, 95% CI:0.87-0.99). Tortillas were the most frequently consumed maize-based food among study participants and significantly associated with high uFB1 exposure in the univariable but not multivariable analysis. Consumption of >4,750 grams/week of maize-based foods, >5,184 g/week of locally produced maize-based foods, and >110 servings/week of tortillas were also significantly associated with high uFB1 exposure in univariable analysis. Populations with low socioeconomic status/education levels and high consumption of maize-based foods had higher fumonisin exposure. Interventions aimed at reducing the risk of exposure to mycotoxins through maize in Guatemala, including the increased consumption of non-maize-based foods, should be further explored. |
Rotavirus Strain Trends in United States, 2009-2016: Results from the National Rotavirus Strain Surveillance System (NRSSS).
Mijatovic-Rustempasic S , Jaimes J , Perkins C , Ward ML , Esona MD , Gautam R , Lewis J , Sturgeon M , Panjwani J , Bloom GA , Miller S , Reisdorf E , Riley AM , Pence MA , Dunn J , Selvarangan R , Jerris RC , DeGroat D , Parashar UD , Cortese MM , Bowen MD . Viruses 2022 14 (8) Before the introduction of vaccines, group A rotaviruses (RVA) were the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in children worldwide. The National Rotavirus Strain Surveillance System (NRSSS) was established in 1996 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to perform passive RVA surveillance in the USA. We report the distribution of RVA genotypes collected through NRSSS during the 2009-2016 RVA seasons and retrospectively examine the genotypes detected through the NRSSS since 1996. During the 2009-2016 RVA seasons, 2134 RVA-positive fecal specimens were sent to the CDC for analysis of the VP7 and VP4 genes by RT-PCR genotyping assays and sequencing. During 2009-2011, RVA genotype G3P[8] dominated, while G12P[8] was the dominant genotype during 2012-2016. Vaccine strains were detected in 1.7% of specimens and uncommon/unusual strains, including equine-like G3P[8] strains, were found in 1.9%. Phylogenetic analyses showed limited VP7 and VP4 sequence variation within the common genotypes with 1-3 alleles/lineages identified per genotype. A review of 20 years of NRSSS surveillance showed two changes in genotype dominance, from G1P[8] to G3P[8] and then G3P[8] to G12P[8]. A better understanding of the long-term effects of vaccine use on epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of circulating RVA strains requires continued surveillance. |
Selected clinical and demographic factors and all-cause mortality among individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy in the Muscular Dystrophy Surveillance, Tracking, and Research Network.
Paramsothy P , Wang Y , Cai B , Conway KM , Johnson NE , Pandya S , Ciafaloni E , Mathews KD , Romitti PA , Howard JFJr , Riley C . Neuromuscul Disord 2022 32 (6) 468-476 Population-based estimates of survival among individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) living in the United States are lacking. It is also unclear whether the association between glucocorticoid use and all-cause mortality persists in the context of other common treatments (cardiac medication, cough-assist, bilevel positive airway pressure, and scoliosis surgery) observed to delay mortality. Among 526 individuals identified by the Muscular Dystrophy Surveillance, Tracking, and Research Network, the estimated median survival time from birth was 23.7 years. Current glucocorticoid users had a lower hazard of mortality than non-users. Individuals who ever had scoliosis surgery had a lower hazard of mortality than individuals who did not have scoliosis surgery. Individuals who ever used cough assist had a lower hazard of mortality than individuals who never used cough assist. Non-Hispanic Black individuals had a higher hazard of mortality than non-Hispanic White individuals. No differences in hazards of mortality were observed between ever versus never use of cardiac medication and ever versus never use of bilevel positive airway pressure. The glucocorticoid observation is consistent with the 2018 Care Considerations statement that glucocorticoid use continues in the non-ambulatory phase. Our observations may inform the clinical care of individuals living with DMD. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022 119 (15) e2113561119 SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action. |
Cryptosporidium parvum outbreak associated with Raccoons at a Wildlife Facility-Virginia, May-June 2019
Davis MK , Riley J , Darby B , Murphy J , Turner L , Segarra MD , Roellig DM . Zoonoses Public Health 2022 69 (3) 248-253 Cryptosporidium parvum is a parasitic zoonotic pathogen responsible for diarrheal illness in humans and animals worldwide. We report an investigation of a cryptosporidiosis outbreak in raccoons and wildlife rehabilitation workers at a Virginia facility. Fifteen (31%) of 49 facility personnel experienced symptoms meeting the case definition, including four laboratory-confirmed cases. Seven juvenile raccoons were reported to have diarrhoea; six had laboratory-confirmed cryptosporidiosis. Cryptosporidium parvum of the same molecular subtype (IIaA16G3R2) was identified in two human cases and six raccoons. Raccoon illness preceded human illness by 11days, suggesting possible zoonotic transmission from raccoons to humans. This appears to be the first report of a human cryptosporidiosis outbreak associated with exposure to raccoons infected with C.parvum. Raccoons might be an under-recognized reservoir for human C.parvum infections. Further study is needed to explore the prevalence of cryptosporidial species in raccoons and their role as a wildlife reservoir. |
Prevention and awareness of birth defects across the lifespan using examples from congenital heart defects and spina bifida
Farr SL , Riley C , Van Zutphen AR , Brei TJ , Leedom VO , Kirby RS , Pabst LJ . Birth Defects Res 2021 114 (2) 35-44 The emergence of birth defects programs in the United States accelerated in the 1970s and 1980s due to recognition that the use of the drug thalidomide during pregnancy resulted in fetal abnormalities (McBride, 1961; Smithells, 1962) and concerns around environmental exposures, such as Agent Orange exposure during the Vietnam War (Erickson et al., 1984). These experiences shaped the mission of many birth defect programs to focus on the surveillance of fetuses/infants affected by birth defects to monitor prevalence, identify and respond to clusters, and explore the epidemiology of birth defects as early warning systems to identify potential teratogens. This work helped identify additional risk factors for birth defects, support primary prevention opportunities, such as folic acid fortification and supplementation for neural tube defect prevention, and enabled evaluations of the success of those efforts (Harris et al., 2017). |
Retention of knowledge and clinical competence among Ugandan mid-level health providers 1year after intensive clinical mentorship in TB and HIV management
Senjovu DK , Naikoba S , Mugabe P , Kadengye DT , McCarthy C , Riley PL , Dalal S . Hum Resour Health 2021 19 (1) 150 INTRODUCTION: Clinical mentorship is effective in improving knowledge and competence of health providers and may be a useful task sharing approach for improving antiretroviral therapy. However, the endurance of the effect of clinical mentorship is uncertain. METHODS: The midlevel health providers who participated in a cluster-randomized trial of one-on-one, on-site, clinical mentorship in tuberculosis and HIV for 8 h a week, every 6 weeks over 9 months were followed to determine if the gains in knowledge and competence that occurred after the intervention were sustained 6- and 12-months post-intervention. In December 2014 and June 2015, their knowledge and clinical competence were respectively assessed using vignettes and a clinical observation tool of patient care. Multilevel mixed effects regression analysis was used to compare the differences in mean scores for knowledge and clinical competence between times 0, 1, 2, and 3 by arm. RESULTS: At the end of the intervention phase of the trial, the mean gain in knowledge scores and clinical competence scores in the intervention arm was 13.4% (95% confidence interval ([CI]: 7.2, 19.6), and 27.8% (95% CI: 21.1, 34.5) respectively, with no changes seen in the control arm. Following the end of the intervention; knowledge mean scores in the intervention arm did not significantly decrease at 6 months (0.6% [95% CI - 1.4, 2.6]) or 12 months (- 2.8% [95% CI: - 5.9, 0.3]) while scores in the control arm significantly increased at 6 months (6.6% [95% CI: 4.4, 8.9]) and 12 months (7.9% [95% CI: 5.4, 10.5]). Also, no significant decrease in clinical competence mean scores for intervention arm was seen at 6 month (2.8% [95% CI: - 1.8, 7.5] and 12 months (3.7% [95% CI: - 2.4, 9.8]) while in the control arm, a significant increase was seen at 6 months (5.8% [95% CI: 1.2, 10.3] and 12 months (11.5% [95% CI: 7.6, 15.5]). CONCLUSIONS: Mentees sustained the competence and knowledge gained after the intervention for a period of one year. Although, there was an increase in knowledge in the control group over the follow-up period, MLP in the intervention arm experienced earlier and sustained gains. One-on-one clinical mentorship should be scaled-up as a task-sharing approach to improve clinical care. Trial Registration The study received ethics approvals from 3 institutions-the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Institutional Review Board (USA), the Institutional Review Board "JCRC's HIV/AIDS Research Committee" IRB#1-IRB00001515 with Federal Wide Assurance number (FWA00009772) based in Kampala and the Uganda National Council of Science and Technology (Uganda) which approves all scientific protocols to be implemented in Uganda. |
Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.
Pollett S , Johansson MA , Reich NG , Brett-Major D , Del Valle SY , Venkatramanan S , Lowe R , Porco T , Berry IM , Deshpande A , Kraemer MUG , Blazes DL , Pan-Ngum W , Vespigiani A , Mate SE , Silal SP , Kandula S , Sippy R , Quandelacy TM , Morgan JJ , Ball J , Morton LC , Althouse BM , Pavlin J , van Panhuis W , Riley S , Biggerstaff M , Viboud C , Brady O , Rivers C . PLoS Med 2021 18 (10) e1003793 BACKGROUND: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement. |
Building Capacity of Community Health Centers to Overcome Data Challenges with the Development of an Agile COVID-19 Public Health Registry: A Multi-State Quality Improvement Effort.
Romero L , Carneiro PB , Riley C , Clark H , Uy R , Park M , Mawokomatanda T , Bombard JM , Hinckley A , Skapik J . J Am Med Inform Assoc 2021 29 (1) 80-88 OBJECTIVE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, federally qualified health centers rapidly mobilized to provide SARS-CoV-2 testing, COVID-19 care, and vaccination to populations at increased risk for COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. We describe the development of a reusable public health data analytics system for reuse of clinical data to evaluate the health burden, disparities, and impact of COVID-19 on populations served by health centers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Multi-State Data Strategy engaged project partners to assess public health readiness and COVID-19 data challenges. An infrastructure for data capture and sharing procedures between health centers and public health agencies was developed to support existing capabilities and data capacities to respond to the pandemic. RESULTS: Between August 2020 - March 2021, project partners evaluated their data capture and sharing capabilities and reported challenges and preliminary data. Major interoperability challenges included poorly aligned federal, state, and local reporting requirements, lack of unique patient identifiers, lack of access to pharmacy, claims and laboratory data, missing data, and proprietary data standards and extraction methods. DISCUSSION: Efforts to access and align project partners' existing health systems data infrastructure in the context of the pandemic highlighted complex interoperability challenges. These challenges remain significant barriers to real-time data analytics and efforts to improve health outcomes and mitigate inequities through data-driven responses. CONCLUSION: The reusable public health data analytics system created in the Multi-State Data Strategy can be adapted and scaled for other health center networks to facilitate data aggregation and dashboards for public health, organizational planning and quality improvement and can inform local, state, and national COVID-19 response efforts. |
A modified public health automated case event reporting platform for enhancing electronic laboratory reports with clinical data: Design and implementation study
Mishra N , Duke J , Karki S , Choi M , Riley M , Ilatovskiy AV , Gorges M , Lenert L . J Med Internet Res 2021 23 (8) e26388 BACKGROUND: Public health reporting is the cornerstone of public health practices that inform prevention and control strategies. There is a need to leverage advances made in the past to implement an architecture that facilitates the timely and complete public health reporting of relevant case-related information that has previously not easily been available to the public health community. Electronic laboratory reporting (ELR) is a reliable method for reporting cases to public health authorities but contains very limited data. In an earlier pilot study, we designed the Public Health Automated Case Event Reporting (PACER) platform, which leverages existing ELR infrastructure as the trigger for creating an electronic case report. PACER is a FHIR (Fast Health Interoperability Resources)-based system that queries the electronic health record from where the laboratory test was requested to extract expanded additional information about a case. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the pilot implementation of a modified PACER system for electronic case reporting and describe how this FHIR-based, open-source, and interoperable system allows health systems to conduct public health reporting while maintaining the appropriate governance of the clinical data. METHODS: ELR to a simulated public health department was used as the trigger for a FHIR-based query. Predetermined queries were translated into Clinical Quality Language logics. Within the PACER environment, these Clinical Quality Language logical statements were managed and evaluated against the providers' FHIR servers. These predetermined logics were filtered, and only data relevant to that episode of the condition were extracted and sent to simulated public health agencies as an electronic case report. Design and testing were conducted at the Georgia Tech Research Institute, and the pilot was deployed at the Medical University of South Carolina. We evaluated this architecture by examining the completeness of additional information in the electronic case report, such as patient demographics, medications, symptoms, and diagnoses. This additional information is crucial for understanding disease epidemiology, but existing electronic case reporting and ELR architectures do not report them. Therefore, we used the completeness of these data fields as the metrics for enriching electronic case reports. RESULTS: During the 8-week study period, we identified 117 positive test results for chlamydia. PACER successfully created an electronic case report for all 117 patients. PACER extracted demographics, medications, symptoms, and diagnoses from 99.1% (116/117), 72.6% (85/117), 70.9% (83/117), and 65% (76/117) of the cases, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PACER deployed in conjunction with electronic laboratory reports can enhance public health case reporting with additional relevant data. The architecture is modular in design, thereby allowing it to be used for any reportable condition, including evolving outbreaks. PACER allows for the creation of an enhanced and more complete case report that contains relevant case information that helps us to better understand the epidemiology of a disease. |
Collective insights of public-private partnership impacts and sustainability: A qualitative analysis.
Strasser S , Stauber C , Shrivastava R , Riley P , O'Quin K . PLoS One 2021 16 (7) e0254495 The global Coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic exposed the weakness of healthcare systems including laboratory systems and is a call to action for unprecedented collaboration and partnerships to deal with the global crisis. The United States (U.S.) President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) establishes the global HIV/AIDS treatment agenda in alignment with the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets to achieve epidemic control related to enhanced testing, treatment, and viral suppression. A strategic PEPFAR priority area recognizes that large-scale collective efforts and sharing of resources bear greater potential impact for lasting change than any single organization or entity can achieve alone. An important vehicle utilized within the global public health context is the public-private partnership (PPP) model whereby multiple international organizations forge unified project charters to collectively reach mutually agreed goals. While touted as an ideal mechanism to synthesize resources and maximize gain in numerous applications, little is known from a seasoned stakeholder perspective regarding PPP implementation and sustainability issues. The purpose of this research is to holistically examine perceptions of PPP model sustainability related to inputs and impacts among a collective network of stakeholders experienced with PEPFAR workforce development, laboratory-system strengthening project implementation. Interviews were conducted with frontline stakeholders from public and private sector organizations based in the US and select PEPFAR-supported priority countries. Analysis revealed three dominant themes: PPP impacts, keys of successful collaboration, and logistical challenges and opportunities to enhance sustainability of PPP outcomes in the future. |
Social contact patterns among employees in 3 U.S. companies during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, April to June 2020.
Kiti MC , Aguolu OG , Liu CY , Mesa AR , Regina R , Woody M , Willebrand K , Couzens C , Bartelsmeyer T , Nelson KN , Jenness S , Riley S , Melegaro A , Ahmed F , Malik F , Lopman BA , Omer SB . Epidemics 2021 36 100481 We measured contact patterns using online diaries for 304 employees of 3 U.S. companies working remotely. The median number of daily contacts was 2 (IQR 1-4); majority were conversation (55 %), occurred at home (64 %) and lasted >4 h (38 %). These data are crucial for modeling outbreak control among the workforces. |
Clinical Effectiveness and Safety of Antivirals for Influenza in Pregnancy
Chow EJ , Beigi RH , Riley LE , Uyeki TM . Open Forum Infect Dis 2021 8 (6) ofab138 Seasonal influenza epidemics result in substantial health care burden annually. Early initiation of antiviral treatment of influenza has been shown to reduce the risk of complications and duration of illness. Pregnant and postpartum women may be at increased risk for influenza-associated complications; however, pregnant women have been generally excluded from clinical trials of antiviral treatment of influenza. In this review, we summarize the available evidence on the clinical effectiveness and safety of antiviral treatment of pregnant women with influenza. Observational data show a reduction of severe outcomes when pregnant and postpartum women are treated with oseltamivir and other neuraminidase inhibitors without increased risk of adverse maternal, fetal, or neonatal outcomes. Due to lack of safety and efficacy data for baloxavir treatment of pregnant and postpartum women, baloxavir is currently not recommended for use in these populations. |
COVID-19 and family planning service delivery: Findings from a survey of U.S. physicians.
Zapata LB , Curtis KM , Steiner RJ , Reeves JA , Nguyen AT , Miele K , Whiteman MK . Prev Med 2021 150 106664 Equitable access to contraception is critical for reproductive autonomy. Using cross-sectional data from the DocStyles survey administered September-October 2020 (68% response rate), we compared changes in family planning-related clinical services and healthcare delivery strategies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and assessed service provision issues among 1063 U.S. physicians whose practice provided family planning services just before the pandemic. About one-fifth of those whose practices provided the following services or strategies just before the pandemic discontinued these services during the pandemic: long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) placement (16%); LARC removal (17%); providing or prescribing emergency contraceptive pills (ECPs) in advance (18%); and reminding patients about contraception injections or LARC removal or replacement (20%). Many practices not providing the following services or strategies just before the pandemic initiated these services during the pandemic: telehealth for contraception initiation (43%); telehealth for contraception continuation (48%); and renewing contraception prescriptions without requiring an office visit (36%). While a smaller proportion of physicians reported service provision issues in the month before survey completion than at any point during the pandemic, about one-third still reported fewer adult females seeking care (37%) and technical challenges with telehealth (32%). Discontinuation of key family planning services during the COVID-19 pandemic may limit contraception access and impede reproductive autonomy. Implementing healthcare service delivery strategies that reduce the need for in-person visits (e.g., telehealth for contraception, providing or prescribing ECPs in advance) may decrease disruptions in care. Resources exist for public health and clinical efforts to ensure contraception access during the pandemic. |
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