Last data update: Jun 03, 2024. (Total: 46935 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 63 Records) |
Query Trace: Prasad P [original query] |
---|
Challenges of COVID-19 case forecasting in the US, 2020-2021
Lopez VK , Cramer EY , Pagano R , Drake JM , O'Dea EB , Adee M , Ayer T , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller PP , Xiao J , Bracher J , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Ray EL , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Pei S , Shaman J , Yamana TK , Tarasewicz SR , Wilson DJ , Baccam S , Gurung H , Stage S , Suchoski B , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang L , Wang Y , Yu S , Gardner L , Jindal S , Marshall M , Nixon K , Dent J , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Smith CP , Truelove S , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Karlen D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Osthus D , Bian J , Cao W , Gao Z , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Walraven R , Chen J , Gu Q , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Gibson GC , Sheldon D , Srivastava A , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis B , Marathe M , Peddireddy AS , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Wang L , Prasad PV , Walker JW , Webber AE , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG , Johansson MA . PLoS Comput Biol 2024 20 (5) e1011200 During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making. |
Predictors of corporal punishment during the COVID-19 pandemic
Sege RD , Purdue EL , Burstein D , Holditch Niolon P , Price LL , Chen Y , Swedo EA , Piazza Hurley T , Prasad K , Klika B . Pediatr Rep 2024 16 (2) 300-312 Although current policies discourage the use of corporal punishment (CP), its use is still widespread in the US. The objective of this study was to assess the proportion of parents who used CP during the pandemic and identify related risk and protective factors. We analyzed results of a nationwide cross-sectional internet panel survey of 9000 US caregivers who responded in three waves from November 2020 to July 2021. One in six respondents reported having spanked their child in the past week. Spanking was associated with intimate partner violence and the use of multiple discipline strategies and not significantly associated with region or racial self-identification. Parents who spanked sought out more kinds of support, suggesting an opportunity to reduce spanking through more effective parenting resources. Additionally, these results suggest that parents who report using CP may be at risk for concurrent domestic violence. |
Phenylketonuria Scientific Review Conference: state of the science and future research needs.
Camp KM , Parisi MA , Acosta PB , Berry GT , Bilder DA , Blau N , Bodamer OA , Brosco JP , Brown CS , Burlina AB , Burton BK , Chang CS , Coates PM , Cunningham AC , Dobrowolski SF , Ferguson JH , Franklin TD , Frazier DM , Grange DK , Greene CL , Groft SC , Harding CO , Howell RR , Huntington KL , Hyatt-Knorr HD , Jevaji IP , Levy HL , Lichter-Konecki U , Lindegren ML , Lloyd-Puryear MA , Matalon K , MacDonald A , McPheeters ML , Mitchell JJ , Mofidi S , Moseley KD , Mueller CM , Mulberg AE , Nerurkar LS , Ogata BN , Pariser AR , Prasad S , Pridjian G , Rasmussen SA , Reddy UM , Rohr FJ , Singh RH , Sirrs SM , Stremer SE , Tagle DA , Thompson SM , Urv TK , Utz JR , van Spronsen F , Vockley J , Waisbren SE , Weglicki LS , White DA , Whitley CB , Wilfond BS , Yannicelli S , Young JM . Mol Genet Metab 2014 112 (2) 87-122 New developments in the treatment and management of phenylketonuria (PKU) as well as advances in molecular testing have emerged since the National Institutes of Health 2000 PKU Consensus Statement was released. An NIH State-of-the-Science Conference was convened in 2012 to address new findings, particularly the use of the medication sapropterin to treat some individuals with PKU, and to develop a research agenda. Prior to the 2012 conference, five working groups of experts and public members met over a 1-year period. The working groups addressed the following: long-term outcomes and management across the lifespan; PKU and pregnancy; diet control and management; pharmacologic interventions; and molecular testing, new technologies, and epidemiologic considerations. In a parallel and independent activity, an Evidence-based Practice Center supported by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality conducted a systematic review of adjuvant treatments for PKU; its conclusions were presented at the conference. The conference included the findings of the working groups, panel discussions from industry and international perspectives, and presentations on topics such as emerging treatments for PKU, transitioning to adult care, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulatory perspective. Over 85 experts participated in the conference through information gathering and/or as presenters during the conference, and they reached several important conclusions. The most serious neurological impairments in PKU are preventable with current dietary treatment approaches. However, a variety of more subtle physical, cognitive, and behavioral consequences of even well-controlled PKU are now recognized. The best outcomes in maternal PKU occur when blood phenylalanine (Phe) concentrations are maintained between 120 and 360 μmol/L before and during pregnancy. The dietary management treatment goal for individuals with PKU is a blood Phe concentration between 120 and 360 μmol/L. The use of genotype information in the newborn period may yield valuable insights about the severity of the condition for infants diagnosed before maximal Phe levels are achieved. While emerging and established genotype-phenotype correlations may transform our understanding of PKU, establishing correlations with intellectual outcomes is more challenging. Regarding the use of sapropterin in PKU, there are significant gaps in predicting response to treatment; at least half of those with PKU will have either minimal or no response. A coordinated approach to PKU treatment improves long-term outcomes for those with PKU and facilitates the conduct of research to improve diagnosis and treatment. New drugs that are safe, efficacious, and impact a larger proportion of individuals with PKU are needed. However, it is imperative that treatment guidelines and the decision processes for determining access to treatments be tied to a solid evidence base with rigorous standards for robust and consistent data collection. The process that preceded the PKU State-of-the-Science Conference, the conference itself, and the identification of a research agenda have facilitated the development of clinical practice guidelines by professional organizations and serve as a model for other inborn errors of metabolism. |
Large community outbreak of legionnaires disease potentially associated with a cooling tower - Napa County, California, 2022
Grossmann NV , Milne C , Martinez MR , Relucio K , Sadeghi B , Wiley EN , Holland SN , Rutschmann S , Vugia DJ , Kimura A , Crain C , Akter F , Mukhopadhyay R , Crandall J , Shorrock M , Smith JC , Prasad N , Kahn R , Barskey AE , Lee S , Willby MJ , Kozak-Muiznieks NA , Lucas CE , Henderson KC , Hamlin JAP , Yang E , Clemmons NS , Ritter T , Henn J . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (49) 1315-1320 Legionnaires disease is a serious infection acquired by inhalation of water droplets from human-made building water systems that contain Legionella bacteria. On July 11 and 12, 2022, Napa County Public Health (NCPH) in California received reports of three positive urinary antigen tests for Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 in the town of Napa. By July 21, six Legionnaires disease cases had been confirmed among Napa County residents, compared with a baseline of one or two cases per year. NCPH requested assistance from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and CDC to aid in the investigations. Close temporal and geospatial clustering permitted a focused environmental sampling strategy of high-risk facilities which, coupled with whole genome sequencing results from samples and investigation of water system maintenance, facilitated potential linking of the outbreak with an environmental source. NCPH, with technical support from CDC and CDPH, instructed and monitored remediation practices for all environmental locations that tested positive for Legionella. The investigation response to this community outbreak illustrates the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration by public health agencies, laboratory support, timely communication with the public, and cooperation of managers of potentially implicated water systems. Timely identification of possible sources, sampling, and remediation of any facility testing positive for Legionella is crucial to interrupting further transmission. |
Identification and characterization of ten Escherichia coli strains encoding novel shiga toxin 2 subtypes, Stx2n as well as Stx2j, Stx2m, and Stx2o, in the United States
Lindsey RL , Prasad A , Feldgarden M , Gonzalez-Escalona N , Kapsak C , Klimke W , Melton-Celsa A , Smith P , Souvorov A , Truong J , Scheutz F . Microorganisms 2023 11 (10) The sharing of genome sequences in online data repositories allows for large scale analyses of specific genes or gene families. This can result in the detection of novel gene subtypes as well as the development of improved detection methods. Here, we used publicly available WGS data to detect a novel Stx subtype, Stx2n in two clinical E. coli strains isolated in the USA. During this process, additional Stx2 subtypes were detected; six Stx2j, one Stx2m strain, and one Stx2o, were all analyzed for variability from the originally described subtypes. Complete genome sequences were assembled from short- or long-read sequencing and analyzed for serotype, and ST types. The WGS data from Stx2n- and Stx2o-producing STEC strains were further analyzed for virulence genes pro-phage analysis and phage insertion sites. Nucleotide and amino acid maximum parsimony trees showed expected clustering of the previously described subtypes and a clear separation of the novel Stx2n subtype. WGS data were used to design OMNI PCR primers for the detection of all known stx1 (283 bp amplicon), stx2 (400 bp amplicon), intimin encoded by eae (221 bp amplicon), and stx2f (438 bp amplicon) subtypes. These primers were tested in three different laboratories, using standard reference strains. An analysis of the complete genome sequence showed variability in serogroup, virulence genes, and ST type, and Stx2 pro-phages showed variability in size, gene composition, and phage insertion sites. The strains with Stx2j, Stx2m, Stx2n, and Stx2o showed toxicity to Vero cells. Stx2j carrying strain, 2012C-4221, was induced when grown with sub-inhibitory concentrations of ciprofloxacin, and toxicity was detected. Taken together, these data highlight the need to reinforce genomic surveillance to identify the emergence of potential new Stx2 or Stx1 variants. The importance of this surveillance has a paramount impact on public health. Per our description in this study, we suggest that 2017C-4317 be designated as the Stx2n type-strain. |
How can global guidelines support sustainable hygiene systems?
Esteves Mills J , Thomas A , Abdalla N , El-Alam R , Al-Shabi K , Ashinyo ME , Bangoura FO , Charles K , Chipungu J , Cole AO , Engebretson B , Goyol K , Grasham CF , Grossi V , Hickling S , Kalandarov S , Ababu AK , Kholmuhammad K , Klaesener-Metzner N , Kugedera Z , Kwakye A , Lee-Llacer A , Maani PP , Makhafola B , Mohamed A , Monirul Alam M , Monse B , Northover H , Palomares A , Patabendi N , Paynter N , Prasad-Gautam O , Panthi SR , Rudge L , Saha S , Salaru I , Saltiel G , Sax L , Shahid MA , Gafur MS , Shrestha S , Szeberényi K , Tidwell JB , Trinies V , Yiha O , Ziganshin R , Gordon B , Cumming O . BMJ Glob Health 2023 8 (10) Hand hygiene is a cost-effective preventive measure to reduce transmission of infectious diseases. Yet, a quarter of the global population lack access to even a basic handwashing facility. | Forthcoming WHO and UNICEF guidelines on hand hygiene in community settings will provide evidence-based recommendations to guide action. | According to consulted future guideline end-users, sustainable implementation of such recommendations to improve hand hygiene requires government-led system-strengthening approaches that build sustainable and resilient national systems. | System-strengthening plans should be underpinned by a comprehensive situational analysis and needs assessment, and monitored on an ongoing basis for course correction where necessary. | Execution of system-strengthening plans should be integrated with existing programmes. | Health sector leadership is required to drive this agenda. |
Pneumococcal vaccine for adults aged 19 years: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, United States, 2023
Kobayashi M , Pilishvili T , Farrar JL , Leidner AJ , Gierke R , Prasad N , Moro P , Campos-Outcalt D , Morgan RL , Long SS , Poehling KA , Cohen AL . MMWR Recomm Rep 2023 72 (3) 1-39 This report compiles and summarizes all published recommendations from CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) for use of pneumococcal vaccines in adults aged ≥19 years in the United States. This report also includes updated and new clinical guidance for implementation from CDC. | | Before 2021, ACIP recommended 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) alone (up to 2 doses), or both a single dose of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in combination with 1–3 doses of PPSV23 in series (PCV13 followed by PPSV23), for use in U.S. adults depending on age and underlying risk for pneumococcal disease. In 2021, two new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), a 15-valent and a 20-valent PCV (PCV15 and PCV20), were licensed for use in U.S. adults aged ≥18 years by the Food and Drug Administration. | | ACIP recommendations specify the use of either PCV20 alone or PCV15 in series with PPSV23 for all adults aged ≥65 years and for adults aged 19–64 years with certain underlying medical conditions or other risk factors who have not received a PCV or whose vaccination history is unknown. In addition, ACIP recommends use of either a single dose of PCV20 or ≥1 dose of PPSV23 for adults who have started their pneumococcal vaccine series with PCV13 but have not received all recommended PPSV23 doses. Shared clinical decision-making is recommended regarding use of a supplemental PCV20 dose for adults aged ≥65 years who have completed their recommended vaccine series with both PCV13 and PPSV23. | | Updated and new clinical guidance for implementation from CDC includes the recommendation for use of PCV15 or PCV20 for adults who have received PPSV23 but have not received any PCV dose. The report also includes clinical guidance for adults who have received 7-valent PCV (PCV7) only and adults who are hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients. |
Mpox vaccine acceptability among people experiencing homelessness in San Francisco - October-November 2022
Filardo TD , Prasad N , Waddell CJ , Persad N , Pellegrini GJ Jr , Borne D , Janssen J , Bejarano A , Marx GE , Mosites E . Vaccine 2023 41 (39) 5673-5677 Mpox has affected many communities in the United States (U.S.), including people experiencing homelessness (PEH). Mpox vaccination has been an important tool to disrupt transmission and protect communities at risk of infection. To better understand mpox vaccine knowledge and attitudes, we surveyed 273 PEH and people accessing homeless service sites in San Francisco. Among 64 participants previously offered mpox vaccination, 38 (59 %) had received the vaccine. Among 209 participants not previously offered mpox vaccination, 108 (52 %) reported they would receive the vaccine. Vaccine acceptance was higher among transgender female participants and among male participants who reported male sex partner preference (MSM). Half of participants who declined vaccination identified that perception of personal risk and vaccine education may increase their likelihood of receiving an mpox vaccine. Leveraging trusted information sources to provide risk communication and vaccine education may increase vaccine uptake among PEH. |
Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: a modelling analysis (preprint)
Haw DJ , Biggerstaff M , Prasad P , Walker J , Grenfell B , Arinaminpathy N . medRxiv 2021 2021.06.09.21258618 Influenza pandemics typically occur in multiple waves of infection, often associated with initial emergence of a novel virus, followed (in temperate regions) by a later resurgence accompanying the onset of the annual influenza season. Here, we examined whether data collected from an initial pandemic wave could be informative, for the need to implement non-pharmaceutical measures in any resurgent wave. Drawing from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in 10 states in the USA, we calibrated simple mathematical models of influenza transmission dynamics to data for virologically confirmed hospitalisations during the initial ‘spring’ wave. We then projected pandemic outcomes (cumulative hospitalisations) during the fall wave, and compared these projections with data. Model results show reasonable agreement for all states that reported a substantial number of cases in the spring wave. Using this model we propose a probabilistic decision framework that can be used to determine the need for pre-emptive measures such as postponing school openings, in advance of a fall wave. This work illustrates how model-based evidence synthesis, in real-time during an early pandemic wave, could be used to inform timely decisions for pandemic response.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementAll work funded by the USA Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:NAAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data (FluSurNet) is freely available online. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm |
Evaluation of Different Types of Face Masks to Limit the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 – A Modeling Study (preprint)
Gurbaxani BM , Hill AN , Paul P , Prasad PV , Slayton RB . medRxiv 2021 2021.04.21.21255889 We updated a published mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with laboratory-derived source and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face masks to estimate their impact on COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in the United States. When used at already-observed population rates of 80% for those ≥65 years and 60% for those <65 years, face masks are associated with 69% (cloth) to 78% (medical procedure mask) reductions in cumulative COVID-19 infections and 82% (cloth) to 87% (medical procedure mask) reductions in related deaths over a 6-month timeline in the model, assuming a basic reproductive number of 2.5. If cloth or medical procedure masks’ source control and wearer protection efficacies are boosted about 30% each to 84% and 60% by cloth over medical procedure masking, fitters, or braces, the COVID-19 basic reproductive number of 2.5 could be reduced to an effective reproductive number ≤ 1.0, and from 6.0 to 2.3 for a variant of concern similar to delta (B.1.617.2).Article Summary Line Adapting a published SARS-CoV-2 transmission model together with updated, laboratory-derived source control and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face coverings as well as N95 respirators, we demonstrate that community masking as currently practiced has likely reduced cases and deaths and that this benefit can be increased with wider adoption of better performing masks.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Clinical TrialThis is an epidemiological modeling study, not a clinical trialFunding StatementNo external funding was received.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:No IRB was needed as this is an epidemiological modeling study.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data/parameters used in the models are reported in the manuscript. Code is available upon request. |
Using the NCBI AMRFinder Tool to Determine Antimicrobial Resistance Genotype-Phenotype Correlations Within a Collection of NARMS Isolates (preprint)
Feldgarden M , Brover V , Haft DH , Prasad AB , Slotta DJ , Tolstoy I , Tyson GH , Zhao S , Hsu CH , McDermott PF , Tadesse DA , Morales C , Simmons M , Tillman G , Wasilenko J , Folster JP , Klimke W . bioRxiv 2019 550707 Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major public health problem that requires publicly available tools for rapid analysis. To identify acquired AMR genes in whole genome sequences, the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) has produced a high-quality, curated, AMR gene reference database consisting of up-to-date protein and gene nomenclature, a set of hidden Markov models (HMMs), and a curated protein family hierarchy. Currently, the Bacterial Antimicrobial Resistance Reference Gene Database contains 4,579 antimicrobial resistance gene proteins and more than 560 HMMs.Here, we describe AMRFinder, a tool that uses this reference dataset to identify AMR genes. To assess the predictive ability of AMRFinder, we measured the consistency between predicted AMR genotypes from AMRFinder against resistance phenotypes of 6,242 isolates from the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS). This included 5,425 Salmonella enterica, 770 Campylobacter spp., and 47 Escherichia coli phenotypically tested against various antimicrobial agents. Of 87,679 susceptibility tests performed, 98.4% were consistent with predictions.To assess the accuracy of AMRFinder, we compared its gene symbol output with that of a 2017 version of ResFinder, another publicly available resistance gene database. Most gene calls were identical, but there were 1,229 gene symbol differences between them, with differences due to both algorithmic differences and database composition. AMRFinder missed 16 loci that Resfinder found, while Resfinder missed 1,147 loci AMRFinder identified. Two missing drug classes from the 2017 version of ResFinder contributed 81% of missed loci. Based on these results, AMRFinder appears to be a highly accurate AMR gene detection system.Importance Antimicrobial resistance is a major public health problem. Traditionally, antimicrobial resistance has been identified using phenotypic assays. With the advent of genome sequencing, we now can identify resistance genes and deduce if an isolate could be resistant to antibiotics. We describe a database of 4,579 acquired antimicrobial resistance genes, the largest publicly available, and a software tool to identify genes in bacterial genomes, AMRFinder. Unlike other tools, AMRFinder uses a gene hierarchy to prevent overpredicting what the correct gene call should be, enabling more accurate assessment. To assess these resources, we determined the resistance gene content of over 6,200 bacterial isolates from the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System that have been assayed using traditional methods and that also have had their genomes sequenced. We also compared our gene assessments to those of a popularly used tool. We found that AMRFinder has a high overall consistency between genotypes and phenotypes. |
A Pan-respiratory Antiviral Chemotype Targeting a Transient Host Multiprotein Complex (preprint)
Muller-Schiffmann A , Michon M , Lingappa AF , Yu SF , Du L , Deiter F , Broce S , Mallesh S , Crabtree J , Lingappa UF , Macieik A , Muller L , Ostermann PN , Andree M , Adams O , Schaal H , Hogan RJ , Tripp RA , Appaiah U , Anand SK , Campi TW , Ford MJ , Reed JC , Lin J , Akintunde O , Copeland K , Nichols C , Petrouski E , Moreira AR , Jiang IT , DeYarman N , Brown I , Lau S , Segal I , Goldsmith D , Hong S , Asundi V , Briggs EM , Phyo NS , Froehlich M , Onisko B , Matlack K , Dey D , Lingappa JR , Prasad MD , Kitaygorodskyy A , Solas D , Boushey H , Greenland J , Pillai S , Lo MK , Montgomery JM , Spiropoulou CF , Korth C , Selvarajah S , Paulvannan K , Lingappa VR . bioRxiv 2021 18 We present a small molecule chemotype, identified by an orthogonal drug screen, exhibiting nanomolar activity against members of all the six viral families causing most human respiratory viral disease, with a demonstrated barrier to resistance development. Antiviral activity is shown in mammalian cells, including human primary bronchial epithelial cells cultured to an air-liquid interface and infected with SARS-CoV-2. In animals, efficacy of early compounds in the lead series is shown by survival (for a coronavirus) and viral load (for a paramyxovirus). The drug target is shown to include a subset of the protein 14-3-3 within a transient host multi-protein complex containing components implicated in viral lifecycles and in innate immunity. This multi-protein complex is modified upon viral infection and largely restored by drug treatment. Our findings suggest a new clinical therapeutic strategy for early treatment upon upper respiratory viral infection to prevent progression to lower respiratory tract or systemic disease. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. |
Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics
Prasad PV , Steele MK , Reed C , Meyers LA , Du Z , Pasco R , Alfaro-Murillo JA , Lewis B , Venkatramanan S , Schlitt J , Chen J , Orr M , Wilson ML , Eubank S , Wang L , Chinazzi M , Pastore YPiontti A , Davis JT , Halloran ME , Longini I , Vespignani A , Pei S , Galanti M , Kandula S , Shaman J , Haw DJ , Arinaminpathy N , Biggerstaff M . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023 120 (28) e2300590120 When an influenza pandemic emerges, temporary school closures and antiviral treatment may slow virus spread, reduce the overall disease burden, and provide time for vaccine development, distribution, and administration while keeping a larger portion of the general population infection free. The impact of such measures will depend on the transmissibility and severity of the virus and the timing and extent of their implementation. To provide robust assessments of layered pandemic intervention strategies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded a network of academic groups to build a framework for the development and comparison of multiple pandemic influenza models. Research teams from Columbia University, Imperial College London/Princeton University, Northeastern University, the University of Texas at Austin/Yale University, and the University of Virginia independently modeled three prescribed sets of pandemic influenza scenarios developed collaboratively by the CDC and network members. Results provided by the groups were aggregated into a mean-based ensemble. The ensemble and most component models agreed on the ranking of the most and least effective intervention strategies by impact but not on the magnitude of those impacts. In the scenarios evaluated, vaccination alone, due to the time needed for development, approval, and deployment, would not be expected to substantially reduce the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths that would occur. Only strategies that included early implementation of school closure were found to substantially mitigate early spread and allow time for vaccines to be developed and administered, especially under a highly transmissible pandemic scenario. |
Innovative approaches to improve COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing among refugees, immigrants, and migrants: Lessons learned from a newly established National Resource Center
Mann EM , Weinberg M , Dawson-Hahn E , Clarke SK , Olmsted M , Bertelsen N , Arun R , Keaveney M , Miko S , Kircher A , Pendleton AE , Hendel-Paterson B , Prasad S , Stauffer WM . J Immigr Minor Health 2023 1-9 Effective COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) among refugee, immigrant, and migrant (RIM) communities requires innovative approaches to address linguistic, cultural and community specific preferences. The National Resource Center for Refugees, Immigrants, and Migrants (NRC-RIM) is a CDC-funded initiative to support state and local health departments with COVID-19 response among RIM communities, including CICT. This note from the field will describe NRC-RIM and initial outcomes and lessons learned, including the use of human-centered design to develop health messaging around COVID-19 CICT; training developed for case investigators, contact tracers, and other public health professionals working with RIM community members; and promising practices and other resources related to COVID-19 CICT among RIM communities that have been implemented by health departments, health systems, or community-based organizations. |
Malaria outbreak investigation in a tribal area of Pratapgarh district, Rajasthan, India, 2016; Proceedings of 'FETP-ICON 2020' Conference : Chennai, India. 3-5 March 2020
Vaisakh T P , Kumar Rajeev , Mishra Abhishek , Babu Binoy S , Patel Purvi , Dikid Tanzin , Chandra Ramesh , Yadav Rajesh , Papanna Mohan , Velayudhan Anoop , Goel Saurabh , Dhandore Suhas , Shewale Ajit , Ponnaiah Manickam , Murhekar Manoj , Prasad Ravindra , Jain SK , Singh Sujeet . BMC Proc 2021 15 17 Acute encephalopathy syndrome (AES) is characterized by sudden onset of seizures and altered sensorium of infectious or non-infectious origin. Seasonal outbreaks of fatal hypoglycaemic AES in children, associated with eating fruit from the Sapindaceae family (e.g., ackee, litchi), have been reported globally [1,2]. Since 1995, AES outbreaks have been reported during the litchi-harvesting season from May–July in Muzaffarpur, the largest commercial litchi-producing district of Bihar, India [3]. An AES outbreak investigation in Muzaffarpur in 2014 linked known toxins hypoglycin A and α-methylene cyclopropyl glycine (MCPG) in litchi fruit to hypoglycaemic AES in children [3]. Following the 2014 outbreak, the Government of Bihar implemented community-based interventions to prevent hypoglycemia in children. They also strengthened the clinical management of hypoglycaemic seizures in public health facilities [4]. The number of AES cases and deaths declined from 2015–18, suggesting that the interventions were effective. However, in May–June 2019, AES cases increased. We conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of the AES cases. | | Methods | | We identified AES cases from established hospital-based surveillance in the two tertiary referral hospitals in Muzaffarpur. We defined a suspected AES case as seizures or altered sensorium in a child aged ≤15 years admitted from 1 May to 2nd July 2019. We excluded patients aged six months to 6 years who were admitted for fever and a single generalized convulsion of <15 minutes in duration and recovered consciousness within 60 minutes of seizure. We conducted a review of medical records and abstracted data using a structured tool for socio-demographics, clinical history, duration of hospitalization, treatment, and laboratory profile. We also assembled a prospective cohort of probable cases admitted to the hospital during the investigation. We defined a probable AES case as new-onset seizures or altered sensorium of <7 days duration in a child aged ≤15 years admitted t from 1 May to 2 July 2019. For the cohort of probable cases, we interviewed the caregivers using a structured clinical-epidemiological questionnaire for socio-demographics, anthropometry, illness characteristics, treatment-seeking behavior, meal assessment, exposure to litchi fruit, and exposure to health messages. For anthropometry, we calculated Z-scores using the World Health Organization 2006 standardized growth tables [5]. | | Results | | Of the 655 suspected and probable AES cases identified, the case fatality rate (CFR) was 21% (139 deaths). The median age was four years (interquartile range: 3 months–14 years), and 58% (378) were females. The first case was reported on 5 May 2019, cases peaked on 15 June, and the last case on 2 July (Figure 1). Among cases with available data, 75% (389/518) had blood glucose levels of <70 mg/dL upon hospital admission, and 75% (476/638) were residents of Muzaffarpur district. We identified cases from 15 (94%) of 16 blocks in the Muzaffarpur district and calculated a district incidence of 22 per 100,000 children ≤15 years old. | | The prospective cohort comprised 94 probable AES cases; CFR was 26%. Among probable cases, 63% (49/78) of caregivers were wage workers, and 34% (31/91) were of low socioeconomic status. Symptoms were reported in the early morning (3 am to 8 am) for 67% (62/93) of cases, and 97% (90/93) presented with seizures. Among probable cases with anthropometry data, 62% (43/69) were underweight (i.e., weight-for-age Z score <-2), 44% (25/57) stunted (i.e., height-for-age Z score <-2), and 43% (10/23) wasted (i.e., weight-for-height Z score <-2). Primary health facilities referred 46% (43/93) of probable cases to the two tertiary hospitals for admission. Among cases referred, only 30% (13/43) received hypoglycemia and seizure management at the primary health facility. | | Eating litchis in the 24 hours and seven days before illness onset was reported by 57% (54/94) and 87% (59/68) of caregivers, respectively. Skipping any meal and skipping the evening meal in the 24 hours before illness onset was reported by 55% (48/88) and 44% (28/63) of caregivers, respectively. Among probable cases, 45% (27/60) of caregivers reported Government Supplementary Nutrition (GSN) programme enrollment. Sixty percent (50/83) of caregivers said a visit by health workers in the week before illness. Still, only 8% (7/83) reported receiving messages on AES prevention and early treatment by health workers in the past month. | | Conclusions | | The 2019 AES outbreak in Muzaffarpur district, Bihar, occurred among young children with hypoglycemia upon hospital admission and had high associated mortality. Although the Government of Bihar implemented community and clinical measures to prevent AES cases after the 2014 outbreak, a large proportion of the AES cases did not benefit from the prevention measures based on our investigation [4]. New state and district health leadership, turnover of community and facility-level healthcare workers, lack of ongoing training and focused community outreach, and competing health priorities might have been factors responsible for the resurgence. To prevent future AES cases, we recommended prompt emergency management of hypoglycemia and seizures at primary health facilities before referral. We recommend enrollment of all eligible children to GSN and enhanced community health communications to reinforce the importance of an evening meal for children and limiting the eating of litchi fruit during the harvesting season from May to July |
Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use among the pediatric population of the United States
Prasad N , Stoecker C , Xing W , Cho BH , Leidner AJ , Kobayashi M . Vaccine 2023 41 (18) 2914-2921 BACKGROUND: Although use of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) among children has reduced incidence of pneumococcal disease, a considerable burden of disease remains. PCV15 is a new vaccine that contains pneumococcal serotypes 22F and 33F in addition to serotypes contained in PCV13. To inform deliberations by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on recommendations for PCV15 use among U.S. children, we estimated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of replacing PCV13 with PCV15 within the routine infant immunization program in the United States. We also assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of a supplementary PCV15 dose among children aged 2-5 years who have already received a full PCV13 series. METHODS: We estimated the incremental number of pneumococcal disease events and deaths averted, costs per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and costs per life-year gained under different vaccination strategies using a probabilistic model following a single birth cohort of 3.9 million individuals (based on 2020 U.S. birth cohort). We assumed that vaccine effectiveness (VE) of PCV15 against the two additional serotypes was the same as the VE of PCV13. The cost of PCV15 use among children was informed from costs of PCV15 use among adults and from discussions with the manufacturer. RESULTS: Our base case results found that replacing PCV13 with PCV15 prevented 92,290 additional pneumococcal disease events and 22 associated deaths, while also saving $147 million in costs. A supplementary PCV15 dose among children aged 2-5 years who were fully vaccinated with PCV13 prevented further pneumococcal disease events and associated deaths but at a cost of more than $2.5 million per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: A further decrease in pneumococcal disease in conjunction with considerable societal cost savings could be expected from replacing PCV13 with PCV15 within the routine infant immunization program in the United States. |
Possible undetected Mpox infection among persons accessing homeless services and staying in encampments - San Francisco, California, October-November 2022
Waddell CJ , Filardo TD , Prasad N , Pellegrini GJ Jr , Persad N , Carson WC , Navarra T , Townsend MB , Satheshkumar PS , Lowe D , Borne D , Janssen J , Okoye N , Bejarano A , Marx GE , Mosites E . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (9) 227-231 Monkeypox (mpox) is a disease caused by an Orthopoxvirus. The 2022 multinational outbreak, which began in May 2022, has spread primarily by close skin-to-skin contact, including through sexual contact. Persons experiencing homelessness have been disproportionately affected by severe mpox (1). However, mpox prevalence and transmission pathways among persons experiencing homelessness are not known, and persons experiencing homelessness have not been specifically recommended to receive mpox vaccine during the 2022 outbreak (2,3). During October 25-November 3, 2022, a CDC field team conducted an orthopoxvirus seroprevalence survey among persons accessing homeless services or staying in encampments, shelters, or permanent supportive housing in San Francisco, California that had noted at least one case of mpox or served populations at risk. During field team visits to 16 unique sites, 209 participants completed a 15-minute survey and provided a blood specimen. Among 80 participants aged <50 years who did not report smallpox or mpox vaccination or previous mpox infection, two (2.5%) had detectable antiorthopoxvirus immunoglobulin (Ig) G antibody. Among 73 participants who did not report mpox vaccination or previous mpox infection and who were tested for IgM, one (1.4%) had detectable antiorthopoxvirus IgM. Together, these results suggest that three possible undetected mpox infections occurred among a sample of persons experiencing homelessness, highlighting the need to ensure that community outreach and prevention interventions, such as vaccination, are accessible to this population. |
Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: A modelling analysis
Haw DJ , Biggerstaff M , Prasad P , Walker J , Grenfell B , Arinaminpathy N . PLoS Comput Biol 2023 19 (2) e1010893 Influenza pandemics typically occur in multiple waves of infection, often associated with initial emergence of a novel virus, followed (in temperate regions) by a resurgence accompanying the onset of the annual influenza season. Here, we examined whether data collected from an initial pandemic wave could be informative, for the need to implement non-pharmaceutical measures in any resurgent wave. Drawing from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in 10 states in the USA, we calibrated simple mathematical models of influenza transmission dynamics to data for laboratory confirmed hospitalisations during the initial 'spring' wave. We then projected pandemic outcomes (cumulative hospitalisations) during the fall wave, and compared these projections with data. Model results showed reasonable agreement for all states that reported a substantial number of cases in the spring wave. Using this model we propose a probabilistic decision framework that can be used to determine the need for preemptive measures such as postponing school openings, in advance of a fall wave. This work illustrates how model-based evidence synthesis, in real-time during an early pandemic wave, could be used to inform timely decisions for pandemic response. |
Changes in the incidence of invasive bacterial disease during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, 2014-2020
Prasad N , Rhodes J , Deng L , McCarthy N , Moline HL , Baggs J , Reddy SC , Jernigan JA , Havers FP , Sosin D , Thomas A , Lynfield R , Schaffner W , Reingold A , Burzlaff K , Harrison LH , Petit S , Farley MM , Herlihy R , Nanduri S , Pilishvili T , McNamara LA , Schrag SJ , Fleming-Dutra KE , Kobayashi M , Arvay M . J Infect Dis 2023 227 (7) 907-916 BACKGROUND: Descriptions of changes in invasive bacterial disease (IBD) epidemiology during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States are limited. METHODS: We investigated changes in the incidence of IBD due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group A Streptococcus (GAS), and group B Streptococcus (GBS). We defined the COVID-19 pandemic period as March 1-December 31, 2020. We compared observed IBD incidences during the pandemic to expected incidences, consistent with January 2014-February 2020 trends. We conducted secondary analysis of a healthcare database to assess changes in testing by blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture during the pandemic. RESULTS: Compared with expected incidences, the observed incidences of IBD due to S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae, GAS, and GBS were 58%, 60%, 28%, and 12% lower during the pandemic period of 2020, respectively. Declines from expected incidences corresponded closely with implementation of COVID-19-associated non-pharmaceutical-interventions (NPIs). Significant declines were observed across all age, race groups and surveillance sites for S pneumoniae and H influenzae. Blood and CSF culture testing rates during the pandemic were comparable to previous years. CONCLUSIONS: NPIs likely contributed to the decline in IBD incidence in the United States in 2020; observed declines were unlikely to be driven by reductions in testing. |
Litchi consumption and missed meals continue to be associated with acute encephalopathy syndrome among children: an investigation of the 2019 outbreak in Muzaffarpur district, Bihar, India
Ponnaiah M , Dikid T , Yadav R , Thangaraj JWV , Velusamy S , Vaisakh TP , Babu B , Mishra A , Patel P , Papanna M , Velayudhan A , Sharma R , Shrivastava A , Jain SK , Prasad R , Kumar S , Singh V , Singh SK , Murhekar M . Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2022 117 (1) 45-49 BACKGROUND: Muzaffarpur district in Bihar State of India recorded a resurgence of acute encephalopathy syndrome (AES) cases in the summer of 2019 after no reported outbreak in 3 y. Earlier studies generated evidence that litchi consumption and missing the previous evening's meal were associated with AES. We investigated the recent outbreak to understand the risk factors associated with AES. METHODS: We conducted a matched case-control study by comparing AES cases with healthy controls from case-households and the neighborhood community for risk factors like missing evening meal and litchi consumption before onset of AES. RESULTS: We recruited 61 cases and 239 controls. Compared with the community controls, case-patients were five times more likely to have reported eating litchi in the 7 d preceding the onset of illness (adjusted OR [AOR]=5.1; 95% CI 1.3 to 19) and skipping the previous evening's meal (AOR=5.2; 95% CI 1.4 to 20). Compared with household controls, case-patients were five times more likely to be children aged <5 y (AOR=5.3; 95% CI 1.3 to 22) and seven times more likely to have skipped the previous evening's meal (AOR=7.4; 95% CI 1.7 to 34). CONCLUSIONS: Skipping the previous evening's meal and litchi consumption were significantly associated with AES among children in Muzaffarpur and adjoining districts of Bihar. |
Evaluation of different types of face masks to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2: a modeling study.
Gurbaxani BM , Hill AN , Paul P , Prasad PV , Slayton RB . Sci Rep 2022 12 (1) 8630 We expanded a published mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with complex, age-structured transmission and with laboratory-derived source and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face masks to estimate their impact on COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in the United States. The model was also improved to allow realistic age-structured transmission with a pre-specified R0 of transmission, and to include more compartments and parameters, e.g. for groups such as detected and undetected asymptomatic infectious cases who mask up at different rates. When masks are used at typically-observed population rates of 80% for those ≥ 65 years and 60% for those < 65 years, face masks are associated with 69% (cloth) to 78% (medical procedure mask) reductions in cumulative COVID-19 infections and 82% (cloth) to 87% (medical procedure mask) reductions in related deaths over a 6-month timeline in the model, assuming a basic reproductive number of 2.5. If cloth or medical procedure masks' source control and wearer protection efficacies are boosted about 30% each to 84% and 60% by cloth over medical procedure masking, fitters, or braces, the COVID-19 basic reproductive number of 2.5 could be reduced to an effective reproductive number ≤ 1.0, and from 6.0 to 2.3 for a variant of concern similar to delta (B.1.617.2). For variants of concern similar to omicron (B.1.1.529) or the sub-lineage BA.2, modeled reductions in effective reproduction number due to similar high quality, high prevalence mask wearing is more modest (to 3.9 and 5.0 from an R(0) = 10.0 and 13.0, respectively). None-the-less, the ratio of incident risk for masked vs. non-masked populations still shows a benefit of wearing masks even with the higher R0 variants. |
Plasma levels of carboxylic acids are markers of early kidney dysfunction in young people with type 1 diabetes
Vigers T , Vinovskis C , Li LP , Prasad P , Heerspink H , D'Alessandro A , Reisz JA , Piani F , Cherney DZ , van Raalte DH , Nadeau KJ , Pavkov ME , Nelson RG , Pyle L , Bjornstad P . Pediatr Nephrol 2022 38 (1) 193-202 BACKGROUND: We compared plasma metabolites of amino acid oxidation and the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle in youth with and without type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and related the metabolites to glomerular filtration rate (GFR), renal plasma flow (RPF), and albuminuria. Metabolites associated with impaired kidney function may warrant future study as potential biomarkers or even future interventions to improve kidney bioenergetics. METHODS: Metabolomic profiling of fasting plasma samples using a targeted panel of 644 metabolites and an untargeted panel of 19,777 metabolites was performed in 50 youth with T1DM ≤ 10 years and 20 controls. GFR and RPF were ascertained by iohexol and p-aminohippurate clearance, and albuminuria calculated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio. Sparse partial least squares discriminant analysis and moderated t tests were used to identify metabolites associated with GFR and RPF. RESULTS: Adolescents with and without T1DM were similar in age (16.1 ± 3.0 vs. 16.1 ± 2.9 years) and BMI (23.4 ± 5.1 vs. 22.7 ± 3.7 kg/m(2)), but those with T1DM had higher GFR (189 ± 40 vs. 136 ± 22 ml/min) and RPF (820 ± 125 vs. 615 ± 65 ml/min). Metabolites of amino acid oxidation and the TCA cycle were significantly lower in adolescents with T1DM vs. controls, and the measured metabolites were able to discriminate diabetes status with an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.93) and error rate of 0.21. Lower glycine (r:-0.33, q = 0.01), histidine (r:-0.45, q < 0.001), methionine (r: -0.29, q = 0.02), phenylalanine (r: -0.29, q = 0.01), serine (r: -0.42, q < 0.001), threonine (r: -0.28, q = 0.02), citrate (r: -0.35, q = 0.003), fumarate (r: -0.24, q = 0.04), and malate (r: -0.29, q = 0.02) correlated with higher GFR. Lower glycine (r: -0.28, q = 0.04), phenylalanine (r:-0.3, q = 0.03), fumarate (r: -0.29, q = 0.04), and malate (r: -0.5, q < 0.001) correlated with higher RPF. Lower histidine (r: -0.28, q = 0.02) was correlated with higher mean ACR. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, adolescents with relatively short T1DM duration exhibited lower plasma levels of carboxylic acids that associated with hyperfiltration and hyperperfusion. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03618420 and NCT03584217 A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information. |
Effectiveness of a COVID-19 Additional Primary or Booster Vaccine Dose in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Nursing Home Residents During Widespread Circulation of the Omicron Variant - United States, February 14-March 27, 2022.
Prasad N , Derado G , Nanduri SA , Reses HE , Dubendris H , Wong E , Soe MM , Li Q , Dollard P , Bagchi S , Edwards J , Shang N , Budnitz D , Bell J , Verani JR , Benin A , Link-Gelles R , Jernigan J , Pilishvili T . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022 71 (18) 633-637 Nursing home residents have experienced disproportionally high levels of COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality and were prioritized for early COVID-19 vaccination (1). Following reported declines in vaccine-induced immunity after primary series vaccination, defined as receipt of 2 primary doses of an mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech] or mRNA-1273 [Moderna]) or 1 primary dose of Ad26.COV2 (Johnson & Johnson [Janssen]) vaccine (2), CDC recommended that all persons aged ≥12 years receive a COVID-19 booster vaccine dose.* Moderately to severely immunocompromised persons, a group that includes many nursing home residents, are also recommended to receive an additional primary COVID-19 vaccine dose.(†) Data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) of an additional primary or booster dose against infection with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) among nursing home residents are limited, especially against the highly transmissible B.1.1.529 and BA.2 (Omicron) variants. Weekly COVID-19 surveillance and vaccination coverage data among nursing home residents, reported by skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) to CDC's National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN)(§) during February 14-March 27, 2022, when the Omicron variant accounted for >99% of sequenced isolates, were analyzed to estimate relative VE against infection for any COVID-19 additional primary or booster dose compared with primary series vaccination. After adjusting for calendar week and variability across SNFs, relative VE of a COVID-19 additional primary or booster dose was 46.9% (95% CI = 44.8%-48.9%). These findings indicate that among nursing home residents, COVID-19 additional primary or booster doses provide greater protection against Omicron variant infection than does primary series vaccination alone. All immunocompromised nursing home residents should receive an additional primary dose, and all nursing home residents should receive a booster dose, when eligible, to protect against COVID-19. Efforts to keep nursing home residents up to date with vaccination should be implemented in conjunction with other COVID-19 prevention strategies, including testing and vaccination of nursing home staff members and visitors. |
A comprehensive approach to improving emergency obstetric and newborn care in Kigoma, Tanzania
Dominico S , Serbanescu F , Mwakatundu N , Kasanga MG , Chaote P , Subi L , Maro G , Prasad N , Ruiz A , Mongo W , Schmidt K , Lobis S . Glob Health Sci Pract 2022 10 (2) INTRODUCTION: To address high levels of maternal mortality in Kigoma, Tanzania, stakeholders increased women's access to high-quality comprehensive emergency obstetric and newborn care (EmONC) by decentralizing services from hospitals to health centers where EmONC was delivered mostly by associate clinicians and nurses. To ensure that women used services, implementers worked to continuously improve and sustain quality of care while creating demand. METHODS: Program evaluation included periodic health facility assessments, pregnancy outcome monitoring, and enhanced maternal mortality detection region-wide in program- and nonprogram-supported health facilities. RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2018, the average number of lifesaving interventions performed per facility increased from 2.8 to 4.7. The increase was higher in program-supported than nonprogram-supported health centers and dispensaries. The institutional delivery rate increased from 49% to 85%; the greatest increase occurred through using health centers (15% to 25%) and dispensaries (21% to 46%). The number of cesarean deliveries almost doubled, and the population cesarean delivery rate increased from 2.6% to 4.5%. Met need for emergency obstetric care increased from 44% to 61% while the direct obstetric case fatality rate declined from 1.8% to 1.4%. The institutional maternal mortality ratio across all health facilities declined from 303 to 174 deaths per 100,000 live births. The total stillbirth rate declined from 26.7 to 12.8 per 1,000 births. The predischarge neonatal mortality rate declined from 10.7 to 7.6 per 1,000 live births. Changes in case fatality rate and maternal mortality were driven by project-supported facilities. Changes in neonatal mortality varied depending on facility type and program support status. CONCLUSION: Decentralizing high-quality comprehensive EmONC delivered mostly by associate clinicians and nurses led to significant improvements in the availability and utilization of lifesaving care at birth in Kigoma. Dedicated efforts to sustain high-quality EmONC along with supplemental programmatic components contributed to the reduction of maternal and perinatal mortality. |
Improving maternal and reproductive health in Kigoma, Tanzania: A 13-year initiative
Prasad N , Mwakatundu N , Dominico S , Masako P , Mongo W , Mwanshemele Y , Maro G , Subi L , Chaote P , Rusibamayila N , Ruiz A , Schmidt K , Kasanga MG , Lobis S , Serbanescu F . Glob Health Sci Pract 2022 10 (2) The Program to Reduce Maternal Deaths in Tanzania was a 13-year (2006-2019) effort in the Kigoma region that evolved over 3 phases to improve and sustain the availability of, access to, and demand for high-quality maternal and reproductive health care services. The Program intended to bring high-quality care closer to more communities. Cutting across the Program was the routine collection of monitoring and evaluation data. The Program achieved significant reductions in maternal and perinatal mortality, a significant increase in the modern contraceptive prevalence rate, and a significant decline in the unmet need for contraception. By 2017, it was apparent that the Program was on track to meet or surpass many of the targets established by the Government of Tanzania. Over the following 2-plus years, efforts to sustain Program interventions intensified. In April 2019, the Program fully transitioned to Government of Tanzania oversight. Four key lessons were learned during implementation that are relevant to governments, donors, and implementing organizations working to reduce maternal mortality: (1) multistakeholder partnerships are critical; (2) demand creation for services, while critical, must rest on a foundation of well-functioning and high-quality clinical services; (3) it is imperative to not only collect robust monitoring and evaluation data, but to be responsive in real time to what the data reveal; and, (4) it is necessary to develop a deliberate sustainability strategy from the start. The Program in Kigoma demonstrates that decentralizing high-quality maternal and reproductive health services in remote, low-resource settings is both feasible and effective and should be considered in places with similar contexts. By embedding the Program in the existing health system, and through efforts to build local capacity, the improvements seen in Kigoma are likely to be sustained. Follow-up evaluations are planned, providing an opportunity to more directly assess sustainability. |
An algorithmic approach to identifying the aetiology of acute encephalitis syndrome in India: results of a 4-year enhanced surveillance study
Ravi V , Hameed SKS , Desai A , Mani RS , Reddy V , Velayudhan A , Yadav R , Jain A , Saikia L , Borthakur AK , Sharma A , Mohan DG , Bhandopadhyay B , Bhattacharya N , Inamdar L , Hossain S , Daves S , Sejvar J , Dhariwal AC , Sen PK , Venkatesh S , Prasad J , Laserson K , Srikantiah P . Lancet Glob Health 2022 10 (5) e685-e693 BACKGROUND: Annual outbreaks of acute encephalitis syndrome pose a major health burden in India. Although Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) accounts for around 15% of reported cases, the aetiology of most cases remains unknown. We aimed to establish an enhanced surveillance network and to use a standardised diagnostic algorithm to conduct a systematic evaluation of acute encephalitis syndrome in India. METHODS: In this large-scale, systematic surveillance study in India, patients presenting with acute encephalitis syndrome (ie, acute onset of fever with altered mental status, seizure, or both) to any of the 18 participating hospitals across Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Assam were evaluated for JEV (serum and cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] IgM ELISA) per standard of care. In enhanced surveillance, JEV IgM-negative specimens were additionally evaluated for scrub typhus, dengue virus, and West Nile virus by serum IgM ELISA, and for Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, dengue virus, herpes simplex virus, and enterovirus by CSF PCR across five referral laboratories. In 2017, chikungunya and Leptospira serum IgM by ELISA and Zika virus serum and CSF by PCR were also tested. FINDINGS: Of 10107 patients with acute encephalitis syndrome enrolled in enhanced surveillance between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2017, 5734 (578%) of 9917 participants with available data were male and 6179 (627%) of 9856 were children aged 15 years and younger. Among patients who provided a sample of either CSF or serum in enhanced surveillance, an aetiology was identified in 1921 (332%) of 5786 patients enrolled between 2014 and 2016 and in 1484 (343%) of 4321 patients enrolled in 2017. The most commonly identified aetiologies were JEV (1023 [177%] of 5786 patients), scrub typhus (645 [185%] of 3489), and dengue virus (161 [52%] of 3124). Among participants who provided both CSF and serum specimens, an aetiology was identified in 1446 (383%) of 3774 patients enrolled between 2014 and 2016 and in 936 (403%) of 2324 enrolled in 2017, representing a 31-times increase in the number of patients with acute encephalitis syndrome with an identified aetiology compared with standard care alone (299 [129%]; p<00001). INTERPRETATION: Implementation of a systematic diagnostic algorithm in an enhanced surveillance platform resulted in a 31-times increase in identification of the aetiology of acute encephalitis syndrome, besides JEV alone, and highlighted the importance of scrub typhus and dengue virus as important infectious aetiologies in India. These findings have prompted revision of the national testing guidelines for this syndrome across India. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. |
Effectiveness of Homologous and Heterologous COVID-19 Booster Doses Following 1 Ad.26.COV2.S (Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) Vaccine Dose Against COVID-19-Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults - VISION Network, 10 States, December 2021-March 2022.
Natarajan K , Prasad N , Dascomb K , Irving SA , Yang DH , Gaglani M , Klein NP , DeSilva MB , Ong TC , Grannis SJ , Stenehjem E , Link-Gelles R , Rowley EA , Naleway AL , Han J , Raiyani C , Benitez GV , Rao S , Lewis N , Fadel WF , Grisel N , Griggs EP , Dunne MM , Stockwell MS , Mamawala M , McEvoy C , Barron MA , Goddard K , Valvi NR , Arndorfer J , Patel P , Mitchell PK , Smith M , Kharbanda AB , Fireman B , Embi PJ , Dickerson M , Davis JM , Zerbo O , Dalton AF , Wondimu MH , Azziz-Baumgartner E , Bozio CH , Reynolds S , Ferdinands J , Williams J , Schrag SJ , Verani JR , Ball S , Thompson MG , Dixon BE . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022 71 (13) 495-502 CDC recommends that all persons aged ≥18 years receive a single COVID-19 vaccine booster dose ≥2 months after receipt of an Ad.26.COV2.S (Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) adenovirus vector-based primary series vaccine; a heterologous COVID-19 mRNA vaccine is preferred over a homologous (matching) Janssen vaccine for booster vaccination. This recommendation was made in light of the risks for rare but serious adverse events following receipt of a Janssen vaccine, including thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome and Guillain-Barré syndrome(†) (1), and clinical trial data indicating similar or higher neutralizing antibody response following heterologous boosting compared with homologous boosting (2). Data on real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) of different booster strategies following a primary Janssen vaccine dose are limited, particularly during the period of Omicron variant predominance. The VISION Network(§) determined real-world VE of 1 Janssen vaccine dose and 2 alternative booster dose strategies: 1) a homologous booster (i.e., 2 Janssen doses) and 2) a heterologous mRNA booster (i.e., 1 Janssen dose/1 mRNA dose). In addition, VE of these booster strategies was compared with VE of a homologous booster following mRNA primary series vaccination (i.e., 3 mRNA doses). The study examined 80,287 emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visits(¶) and 25,244 hospitalizations across 10 states during December 16, 2021-March 7, 2022, when Omicron was the predominant circulating variant.** VE against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated ED/UC encounters was 24% after 1 Janssen dose, 54% after 2 Janssen doses, 79% after 1 Janssen/1 mRNA dose, and 83% after 3 mRNA doses. VE for the same vaccination strategies against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations were 31%, 67%, 78%, and 90%, respectively. All booster strategies provided higher protection than a single Janssen dose against ED/UC visits and hospitalizations during Omicron variant predominance. Vaccination with 1 Janssen/1 mRNA dose provided higher protection than did 2 Janssen doses against COVID-19-associated ED/UC visits and was comparable to protection provided by 3 mRNA doses during the first 120 days after a booster dose. However, 3 mRNA doses provided higher protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations than did other booster strategies during the same time interval since booster dose. All adults who have received mRNA vaccines for their COVID-19 primary series vaccination should receive an mRNA booster dose when eligible. Adults who received a primary Janssen vaccine dose should preferentially receive a heterologous mRNA vaccine booster dose ≥2 months later, or a homologous Janssen vaccine booster dose if mRNA vaccine is contraindicated or unavailable. Further investigation of the durability of protection afforded by different booster strategies is warranted. |
Modeling strategies for the allocation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the United States.
Walker J , Paul P , Dooling K , Oliver S , Prasad P , Steele M , Gastañaduy PA , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Slayton RB . Vaccine 2022 40 (14) 2134-2139 The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended phased allocation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in December 2020. To support the development of this guidance, we used a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to evaluate the relative impact of three vaccine allocation strategies on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. All three strategies initially prioritized healthcare personnel (HCP) for vaccination. Strategies of subsequently prioritizing adults aged ≥65 years, or a combination of essential workers and adults aged ≥75 years, prevented the most deaths. Meanwhile, prioritizing adults with high-risk medical conditions immediately after HCP prevented the most infections. All three strategies prevented a similar fraction of hospitalizations. While no model is capable of fully capturing the complex social dynamics which shape epidemics, exercises such as this one can be a useful way for policy makers to formalize their assumptions and explore the key features of a problem before making decisions. |
Sensitivity and specificity of surveillance case definitions in detection of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus among hospitalized patients, New Zealand, 2012-2016
Davis W , Duque J , Huang QS , Olson N , Grant CC , Newbern EC , Thompson M , Waite B , Prasad N , Trenholme A , Azziz-Baumgartner E . J Infect 2021 84 (2) 216-226 BACKGROUND: The WHO is exploring the value of adding RSV testing to existing influenza surveillance systems to inform RSV control programs. We evaluate the usefulness of four commonly used influenza surveillance case-definitions for influenza and RSV surveillance. METHODS: SHIVERS, a multi-institutional collaboration, conducted surveillance for influenza and RSV in four New Zealand hospitals. Nurses reviewed admission logs, enrolled patients with suspected acute respiratory infections (ARI), and obtained nasopharyngeal swabs for RT-PCR. We compared the performance characteristics for identifying laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), defined as persons admitted with measured or reported fever and cough within 10 days of illness, to three other case definitions: 1. reported fever and cough or shortness of breath, 2. cough and shortness of breath, or 3. cough. RESULTS: During April-September 2012-2016, SHIVERS identified 16,055 admissions with ARI; of 6374 cases consented and tested for influenza or RSV, 5437 (85%) had SARI and 937 (15%) did not. SARI had the highest specificity in detecting influenza (40.6%) and RSV (40.8%) but the lowest sensitivity (influenza 78.8%, RSV 60.3%) among patients of all ages. Cough or shortness of breath had the highest sensitivity (influenza 99.3%, RSV 99.9%) but the lowest specificity (influenza 1.6%, RSV 1.9%). SARI sensitivity among children aged <3 months was 60.8% for influenza and 43.6% for RSV-both lower than in other age groups. CONCLUSIONS: While SARI had the highest specificity, its sensitivity was limited, especially among children aged <3 months. Cough or shortness of breath was the most sensitive. |
Cruise ship travel in the era of COVID-19: A summary of outbreaks and a model of public health interventions.
Guagliardo SAJ , Prasad PV , Rodriguez A , Fukunaga R , Novak RT , Ahart L , Reynolds J , Griffin I , Wiegand R , Quilter LAS , Morrison S , Jenkins K , Wall HK , Treffiletti A , White SB , Regan J , Tardivel K , Freeland A , Brown C , Wolford H , Johansson MA , Cetron MS , Slayton RB , Friedman CR . Clin Infect Dis 2021 74 (3) 490-497 BACKGROUND: Cruise travel contributed to SARS-CoV-2 transmission when there were relatively few cases in the United States. By March 14, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a No Sail Order suspending U.S. cruise operations; the last U.S. passenger ship docked on April 16. METHODS: We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on cruises in U.S. waters or carrying U.S. citizens and used regression models to compare voyage characteristics. We used compartmental models to simulate the potential impact of four interventions (screening for COVID-19 symptoms; viral testing on two days and isolation of positive persons; reduction of passengers by 40%, crew by 20%, and port visits to one) for 7-day and 14-day voyages. RESULTS: During January 19-April 16, 2020, 89 voyages on 70 ships had known SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks; 16 ships had recurrent outbreaks. There were 1,669 RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and 29 confirmed deaths. Longer voyages were associated with more cases (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.10, 95% CI: 1.03-1.17, p < 0.0001). Mathematical models showed that 7-day voyages had about 70% fewer cases than 14-day voyages. On 7-day voyages, the most effective interventions were reducing the number of individuals onboard (43-49% reduction in total infections) and testing passengers and crew (42-43% reduction in total infections). All four interventions reduced transmission by 80%, but no single intervention or combination eliminated transmission. Results were similar for 14-day voyages. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on cruises were common during January-April 2020. Despite all interventions modeled, cruise travel still poses a significant SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk. |
- Page last reviewed:Feb 1, 2024
- Page last updated:Jun 03, 2024
- Content source:
- Powered by CDC PHGKB Infrastructure