Background: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Sickle Cell Data Collection (SCDC) program comprises multidisciplinary teams, which include community-based organizations. Partnering with community-based organizations (CBOs) is a novel approach to ensure that SCDC data are actionable.

Animal to human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has not previously been reported in a zoo setting. A vaccinated African lion with physical limitations requiring hand feeding tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after development of respiratory signs. Zoo employees were screened, monitored prospectively for development of symptoms, then re-screened as indicated, with confirmation by RT-PCR and whole-genome virus sequencing when possible. Trace-back investigation narrowed the source of infection to one of five people. Three exposed employees subsequently developed symptoms, two with viral genomes identical to the lion's. Forward contact tracing investigation confirmed probable lion-to-human transmission. Close contact with large cats is a risk factor for bidirectional zoonotic SARS-CoV-2 transmission that should be considered when occupational health and biosecurity practices at zoos are designed and implemented. SARS-CoV-2 rapid testing and detection methods in big cats and other susceptible animals should be developed and validated to facilitate timely implementation of One Health investigations. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Many poxviruses are significant human and animal pathogens, including viruses that cause smallpox and mpox. Identification of inhibitors of poxvirus replication is critical for drug development to manage poxvirus threats. Here we tested two compounds, nucleoside trifluridine and nucleotide adefovir dipivoxil, for antiviral activities against vaccinia virus (VACV) and mpox virus (MPXV) in physiologically relevant primary human fibroblasts. Both trifluridine and adefovir dipivoxil potently inhibited replication of VACV and MPXV (MA001 2022 isolate) in a plaque assay. Upon further characterization, they both conferred high potency in inhibiting VACV replication with half maximal effective concentrations (EC50) at low nanomolar levels in our recently developed assay based on a recombinant VACV secreted Gaussia luciferase. Our results further validated that the recombinant VACV with Gaussia luciferase secretion is a highly reliable, rapid, non-disruptive, and simple reporter tool for identification and chracterization of poxvirus inhibitors. Both compounds inhibited VACV DNA replication and downstream viral gene expression. Given that both compounds are FDA-approved drugs, and trifluridine is used to treat ocular vaccinia in medical practice due to its antiviral activity, our results suggest that it holds great promise to further test trifluridine and adefovir dipivoxil for countering poxvirus infection, including mpox. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

We describe animal-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a zoo setting in Indiana, USA. A vaccinated African lion with physical limitations requiring hand feeding tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after onset of respiratory signs. Zoo employees were screened, monitored prospectively for onset of symptoms, then rescreened as indicated; results were confirmed by using reverse transcription PCR and whole-genome virus sequencing when possible. Traceback investigation narrowed the source of infection to 1 of 6 persons. Three exposed employees subsequently had onset of symptoms, 2 with viral genomes identical to the lion's. Forward contact tracing investigation confirmed probable lion-to-human transmission. Close contact with large cats is a risk factor for bidirectional zoonotic SARS-CoV-2 transmission that should be considered when occupational health and biosecurity practices at zoos are designed and implemented. SARS-CoV-2 rapid testing and detection methods for big cats and other susceptible animals should be developed and validated to enable timely implementation of One Health investigations.

Many poxviruses are significant human and animal pathogens, including viruses that cause smallpox and mpox (formerly monkeypox). Identifying novel and potent antiviral compounds is critical to successful drug development targeting poxviruses. Here we tested two compounds, nucleoside trifluridine, and nucleotide adefovir dipivoxil, for antiviral activities against vaccinia virus (VACV), mpox virus (MPXV), and cowpox virus (CPXV) in physiologically relevant primary human fibroblasts. Both compounds potently inhibited the replication of VACV, CPXV, and MPXV (MA001 2022 isolate) in plaque assays. In our recently developed assay based on a recombinant VACV expressing secreted Gaussia luciferase, they both exhibited high potency in inhibiting VACV replication with EC(50)s in the low nanomolar range. In addition, both trifluridine and adefovir dipivoxil inhibited VACV DNA replication and downstream viral gene expression. Our results characterized trifluridine and adefovir dipivoxil as strong poxvirus antiviral compounds and further validate the VACV Gaussia luciferase assay as a highly efficient and reliable reporter tool for identifying poxvirus inhibitors. Given that both compounds are FDA-approved drugs, and trifluridine is already used to treat ocular vaccinia, further development of trifluridine and adefovir dipivoxil holds great promise in treating poxvirus infections, including mpox.

PROBLEM/CONDITION: Sickle cell disease (SCD), an inherited blood disorder affecting an estimated 100,000 persons in the United States, is associated with multiple complications and reduced life expectancy. Complications of SCD can include anemia, debilitating acute and chronic pain, infection, acute chest syndrome, stroke, and progressive organ damage, including decreased cognitive function and renal failure. Early diagnosis, screenings and preventive interventions, and access to specialist health care can decrease illness and death. Population-based public health surveillance is critical to understanding the course and outcomes of SCD as well as the health care use, unmet health care needs, and gaps in essential services of the population affected by SCD. PERIOD COVERED: 2004-2018. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROGRAM: In 2015, CDC established the Sickle Cell Data Collection (SCDC) program to characterize the epidemiology of SCD in two states (California and Georgia). Previously, surveillance for SCD was conducted by two short-term projects: Registry and Surveillance System for Hemoglobinopathies (RuSH), which was conducted during 2010-2012 and included 2004-2008 data, and Public Health Research, Epidemiology, and Surveillance for Hemoglobinopathies (PHRESH), which was conducted during 2012-2014 and included 2004-2008 data. Both California and Georgia participated in RuSH and PHRESH, which guided the development of the SCDC methods and case definitions. SCDC is a population-based tracking system that uses comprehensive data linkages in state health systems. These linkages serve to synthesize and disseminate population-based, longitudinal data for persons identified with SCD from multiple sources using selected International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification, and Tenth Revision codes and laboratory results confirmed through state newborn screening (NBS) programs or clinic case reporting. Administrative and clinical data sources include state Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program databases, death certificates, NBS programs, hospital discharge and emergency department records, and clinical records or case reports. Data from multiple sources and years are linked and deduplicated so that states can analyze and report on SCD population prevalence, demographic characteristics, health care access and use, and health outcomes. The SCD case definition is based on an algorithm that classifies cases with laboratory confirmation as confirmed cases and those with a reported clinical diagnosis or three or more diagnostic codes over a 5-year period from an administrative data source as probable cases. In 2019, nine states (Alabama, California, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia) were funded as part of an SCDC capacity-building initiative. The newly funded states developed strategies for SCD case identification and data linkage similar to those used by California and Georgia. As of 2021, the SCDC program had expanded to 11 states with the addition of Colorado and Wisconsin. RESULTS: During 2004-2018, the cumulative prevalence of confirmed and probable SCD cases identified in California and Georgia was 9,875 and 14,777 cases, respectively. The 2018 annual prevalence count was 6,027 cases for California and 9,141 for Georgia. Examination of prevalence counts by contributing data source during 2014-2018 revealed that each data source captured 16%-71% of cases in California and 17%-87% in Georgia; therefore, no individual source is sufficient to estimate statewide population prevalence. The proportion of pediatric SCD patients (children aged 0-18 years) was 27% in California and 40% in Georgia. The percentage of females with SCD in California and Georgia was 58% and 57%, respectively. Of the cases with SCD genotyping data available (n = 5,856), 63% of patients had sickle cell anemia. SCDC data have been used to directly apprise health care providers and policymakers about health care needs and gaps for patients with SCD. For example, an SCDC Georgia assessment indicated that 10% of babies born during 2004-2016 with SCD lived more than a 1-hour drive from any SCD specialty care option, and another 14% lived within a 1-hour drive of a periodic SCD specialty clinic only. Likewise, an SCDC California assessment indicated that during 2016-2018, most patients with SCD in Los Angeles County lived approximately 15-60 miles from hematologists experienced in SCD care. A surveillance capacity and performance assessment of all 11 SCDC states during 2020-2021 indicated that states differed in the availability of data sources used for SCD surveillance and the time frames for accessing each state data source. Nonetheless, methods for standardizing reporting were developed across all participating states. INTERPRETATION: This report is the first comprehensive description of CDC's efforts in collaboration with participating states to establish, maintain, and expand SCD surveillance through the SCDC program to improve health outcomes for persons living with SCD. Findings from California and Georgia analyses highlighted a need for additional SCD specialty clinics. Despite different approaches, expansion of SCDC to multiple states was possible using standardized, rigorous methods developed across all participating states for reporting on disease prevalence, health care needs and use, and deaths. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION: Findings from surveillance can be used to improve and monitor care and outcomes for persons with SCD. These and other SCDC analyses have had a role in opening new SCD clinics, educating health care providers, developing state health care policies, and guiding new research initiatives. Public health officials can use this report as a guiding framework to plan or implement surveillance programs for persons with SCD. Both data-related activities (data sources; patient identifiers; and obtaining, transferring, and linking data) and the administrative considerations (stakeholder engagement, costs and resources, and long-term sustainability) are crucial to the success of these programs.

INTRODUCTION: Sickle cell disease (SCD), a group of inherited blood cell disorders that primarily affects Black or African American persons, is associated with severe complications and a >20-year reduction in life expectancy. In 2014, an expert panel convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute issued recommendations to prevent or reduce complications in children and adolescents with the most severe SCD subtypes, known as sickle cell anemia (SCA); recommendations included 1) annual screening of children and adolescents aged 2-16 years with transcranial Doppler (TCD) ultrasound to identify those at risk for stroke and 2) offering hydroxyurea therapy to children and adolescents aged ≥9 months to reduce the risk for several life-threatening complications. METHODS: Data from the IBM MarketScan Multi-State Medicaid Database were analyzed. TCD screening and hydroxyurea use were examined for 3,352 children and adolescents with SCA aged 2-16 years and continuously enrolled in Medicaid during 2019. Percentage change during 2014-2019 and variation by health subgroups were assessed. Analyses were stratified by age. RESULTS: During 2014-2019, TCD screening increased 27% among children and adolescents aged 10-16 years; hydroxyurea use increased 27% among children aged 2-9 years and 23% among children and adolescents aged 10-16 years. However, in 2019, only 47% and 38% of children and adolescents aged 2-9 and 10-16 years, respectively, had received TCD screening and 38% and 53% of children and adolescents aged 2-9 years and 10-16 years, respectively, used hydroxyurea. For both prevention strategies, usage was highest among children and adolescents with high levels of health care utilization and evidence of previous complications indicative of severe disease. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE: Despite increases since 2014, TCD screening and hydroxyurea use remain low among children and adolescents with SCA. Health care providers should implement quality care strategies within their clinics and partner with patients, families, and community-based organizations to address barriers to delivering and receiving recommended care.

Since May 2022, approximately 20,000 cases of monkeypox have been identified in the United States, part of a global outbreak occurring in approximately 90 countries and currently affecting primarily gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) (1). Monkeypox virus (MPXV) spreads from person to person through close, prolonged contact; a small number of cases have occurred in populations who are not MSM (e.g., women and children), and testing is recommended for persons who meet the suspected case definition* (1). CDC previously developed five real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays for detection of orthopoxviruses from lesion specimens (2,3). CDC was granted 510(k) clearance for the nonvariola-orthopoxvirus (NVO)-specific PCR assay by the Food and Drug Administration. This assay was implemented within the Laboratory Response Network (LRN) in the early 2000s and became critical for early detection of MPXV and implementation of public health action in previous travel-associated cases as well as during the current outbreak (4-7). PCR assays (NVO and other Orthopoxvirus laboratory developed tests [LDT]) represent the primary tool for monkeypox diagnosis. These tests are highly sensitive, and cross-contamination from other MPXV specimens being processed, tested, or both alongside negative specimens can occasionally lead to false-positive results. This report describes three patients who had atypical rashes and no epidemiologic link to a monkeypox case or known risk factors; these persons received diagnoses of monkeypox based on late cycle threshold (Ct) values ≥34, which were false-positive test results. The initial diagnoses were followed by administration of antiviral treatment (i.e., tecovirimat) and JYNNEOS vaccine postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) to patients' close contacts. After receiving subsequent testing, none of the three patients was confirmed to have monkeypox. Knowledge gained from these and other cases resulted in changes to CDC guidance. When testing for monkeypox in specimens from patients without an epidemiologic link or risk factors or who do not meet clinical criteria (or where these are unknown), laboratory scientists should reextract and retest specimens with late Ct values (based on this report, Ct ≥34 is recommended) (8). CDC can be consulted for complex cases including those that appear atypical or questionable cases and can perform additional viral species- and clade-specific PCR testing and antiorthopoxvirus serologic testing.

Despite global support for immunization as a core component of the human right to health and the maturity of immunization programs in low- and middle-income countries throughout the world, there is no comprehensive description of the standardized competencies needed for immunization programs at the national, multiple sub-national, and community levels. The lack of defined and standardized competencies means countries have few guidelines to help them address immunization workforce planning, program management, and performance monitoring. Potential consequences resulting from the lack of defined competencies include inadequate or inefficient distribution of resources to support the required functions and difficulties in adequately managing the health workforce. In 2015, an international multi-agency working group convened to define standardized competencies that national immunization programs could adapt for their own workforce planning needs. The working group used a stepwise approach to ensure that the competencies would align with immunization programs' objectives. The first step defined the attributes of a successful immunization program. The group then defined the work functions needed to achieve those attributes. Based on the work functions, the working group defined specific competencies. This process resulted in three products: (1) Attributes of an immunization program described within eight technical domains at four levels within a health system: National, Provincial, District/Local, and Community; (2) 229 distinct functions within those eight domains at each of the four levels; and (3) 242 competencies, representing eight technical domains and two foundational domains (Management and Leadership and Vaccine Preventable Diseases and Program). Currently available as a working draft and being tested with immunization projects in several countries, the final document will be published by WHO as normative guidelines. Vertical immunization programs as well as integrated systems can customize the framework to suit their needs. Standardized competencies can support immunization program improvements and help strengthen effective health systems.

From February to April 2016, the Indiana State Department of Health (ISDH) confirmed mumps outbreaks at four universities (three public and one private). All universities were located within 65 miles of Indianapolis; however, epidemiologic links among outbreaks were limited. ISDH and local health departments investigated the outbreaks and initiated control measures at all universities. A protocol describing recommended testing for mumps, testing priorities during the outbreak, and a preauthorization process for submitting specimens to the ISDH Laboratory (ISDHL) was developed and disseminated to providers and public health partners (1). Outbreaks at each university were declared over after two incubation periods* elapsed without identified cases; the last outbreak ended September 10, 2016. Among the 281 confirmed and probable cases identified, 216 (76.9%) persons had documentation of presumptive evidence of immunity(dagger) (2). At some universities, documentation of receipt of 2 doses of measles, mumps, rubella vaccine (MMR), which is a criterion for evidence of immunity, was not available and required substantial personnel time to verify. Implementation of policies for excluding susceptible persons from classes and other group settings was also difficult. The laboratory testing protocol increased the percentage of specimens testing positive and improved case detection. Outbreak-specific laboratory testing guidance on specimen collection for mumps confirmation and standardized vaccination documentation in highly vaccinated settings could aid outbreak management. Evaluation of exclusion policies might also be necessary. In 2018, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) published a recommendation that persons previously vaccinated with 2 doses of MMR who are determined by public health authorities to be part of a group at increased risk for infection during a mumps outbreak receive a third dose of MMR (3).

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Water Laboratory Alliance relies on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's ultrafiltration-based Water Processing Procedure (WPP) for concentration of biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) agents from 10 L to 100 L of drinking water. The WPP requires comprehensive training and practice to maintain proficiency, resulting in a critical need for quality control (QC) criteria. The aim of this study was to develop criteria using male-specific (MS2) coliphage (BSL-2 agent) to minimize safety hazards associated with BSL-3 agents and to use the criteria to evaluate analytical proficiency during a demonstration exercise. EPA Method 1602 with EasyPhage was used during the study to develop QC criteria for 100-mL, and 40-100 L samples. The demonstration exercise indicated that the MS2 criteria would allow laboratories to demonstrate proficiency using the WPP with 40-100 L samples. In addition, the QC criteria developed for 100-mL samples has broad applicability at laboratories that are using MS2 for other types of analyses, such as assessment of water treatment devices. The development of MS2 QC criteria allows laboratories to develop and confirm ongoing proficiency using the WPP.

Exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) exacerbates asthma and increases mortality. In Phoenix, AZ, the highest PM2.5 values frequently occur during the winter fireplace season and air quality health standards are often exceeded during the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. It was clear that enhanced messaging was needed by air quality and public health authorities to discourage biomass fires (BMF) on days when unhealthful levels of pollution were likely to be caused by that activity. Demonstrating adverse health outcomes would bolster this effort. We conducted this study to evaluate associations between elevated PM2.5 exposures during the fireplace season and asthma-related hospital admissions in Phoenix; days with average PM2.5 > 35 μg/m3 were categorized as elevated PM2.5 exposure. We used hospital discharge data to identify patients with an asthma-related hospital encounter and who lived within an 8-km radius of a PM2.5 monitor. To estimate the risk of a hospital encounter following an elevated PM2.5 event, we used generalized estimating equations, specified with a Poisson distribution, and exposure lags of 0–3 days. Controlling for influenza, temperature, humidity, rain, and year, these analyses generated elevated estimates of emergency department visit risk among adults on lag days 2 (relative risk [RR] 1.19; 95 % CI 1.06, 1.34) and 3 (RR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.05, 1.37). Elevated PM2.5 was not associated with hospital encounters among children. Our findings suggest that adults may be at elevated risk of asthma-related hospital encounters during the fireplace season. © 2016 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Water Laboratory Alliance (WLA) currently uses ultrafiltration (UF) for concentration of biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) agents from large volumes (up to 100-L) of drinking water prior to analysis. Most UF procedures require comprehensive training and practice to achieve and maintain proficiency. As a result, there was a critical need to develop quality control (QC) criteria. Because select agents are difficult to work with and pose a significant safety hazard, QC criteria were developed using surrogates, including Enterococcus faecalis and Bacillus atrophaeus. This article presents the results from the QC criteria development study and results from a subsequent demonstration exercise in which E. faecalis was used to evaluate proficiency using UF to concentrate large volume drinking water samples. Based on preliminary testing EPA Method 1600 and Standard Methods 9218, for E. faecalis and B. atrophaeus respectively, were selected for use during the QC criteria development study. The QC criteria established for Method 1600 were used to assess laboratory performance during the demonstration exercise. Based on the results of the QC criteria study E. faecalis and B. atrophaeus can be used effectively to demonstrate and maintain proficiency using ultrafiltration.

In 2012, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 3.2 cases of tuberculosis (TB) per 100,000 persons in the United States.1 Although TB incidence has declined during the past several decades, the 2010 goal of < 1 case per 1,000,000 persons—as established in the national strategic plan for TB elimination—has yet to be achieved.2 Although persons aged ≥ 65 years accounted for only 14% of the population in 2012, this group represented 22% of reported cases of TB.3,4 An analysis of 1993–2008 cases reported in the United States showed that the rate of TB among elderly adults was as much as 30% higher than among younger adults.5 Even more striking are the disproportionate rates documented among those living in long-term-care facilities (LTCFs). Previous reports have estimated that adults aged ≥ 65 years residing in LTCFs may have between 4 and 50 times the risk of developing TB disease than elderly persons living in the community.5–7 | As of April 2014, approximately 3.2 million workers were employed in LTCFs.8 The size of this occupational group will grow significantly in the coming years if LTCF resident populations increase as expected. Past estimates suggest the TB case rates are 3 times higher among LTCF workers compared with those working in any other job.9 Therefore, prevention and control of TB in LTCFs are essential to protect both the residents and employees in these settings. The goal of this article is to summarize findings of an LTCF TB outbreak investigation to highlight the unique challenges posed by Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in these settings.

Persons with sickle cell trait (SCT) are heterozygous carriers of an abnormal ss-globin gene that results in the production of an abnormal hemoglobin, Hb S, which can distort red blood cells (http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/sicklecell/facts.html). All state newborn screening (NBS) programs have provided universal sickle cell disease (SCD) screening for newborns since 2006. Screening for SCD detects both SCD and SCT. To obtain up-to-date measures of the occurrence of SCT among newborns by race/ethnicity and state of birth, data collected by state NBS programs in 2010 were examined. In 2010, the incidence of SCT in participating states was 15.5 per 1,000 newborns overall; 73.1 among black newborns and 6.9 among Hispanic newborns. Incidence by state ranged from 0.8 per 1,000 screened newborns in Montana to 34.1 per 1,000 in Mississippi. Although the occurrence of SCT varies greatly from state-to-state and among different races and ethnicities, every state and racial/ethnic population includes persons living with the condition. The period immediately following NBS is ideal for primary care providers and genetic counselors to begin educating the families of identified persons with SCT about potential health complications and reproductive considerations.

IMPORTANCE: Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy. OBJECTIVES: To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. DESIGN: We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages. RESULTS: US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

BACKGROUND: Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). METHODS: Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. FINDINGS: Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0.37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION: Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS: We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS: In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7.0% [95% uncertainty interval 6.2-7.7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6.3% [5.5-7.0]), and alcohol use (5.5% [5.0-5.9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7.9% [6.8-9.4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7.0% [5.6-8.3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6.1% [5.4-6.8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10.0% (95% UI 9.2-10.8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0.9% (0.4-1.6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION: Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS: We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS: Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2.503 billion) to 2010 (2.490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION: Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.