Last data update: Apr 29, 2024. (Total: 46658 publications since 2009)
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Query Trace: Paul P [original query] |
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Influence of eat, sleep, and console on infants pharmacologically treated for opioid withdrawal: A post hoc subgroup analysis of the ESC-NOW randomized clinical trial
Devlin LA , Hu Z , Merhar SL , Ounpraseuth ST , Simon AE , Lee JY , Das A , Crawford MM , Greenberg RG , Smith PB , Higgins RD , Walsh MC , Rice W , Paul DA , Maxwell JR , Fung CM , Wright T , Ross J , McAllister JM , Crowley M , Shaikh SK , Christ L , Brown J , Riccio J , Wong Ramsey K , Braswell EF , Tucker L , McAlmon K , Dummula K , Weiner J , White JR , Newman S , Snowden JN , Young LW . JAMA Pediatr 2024 IMPORTANCE: The function-based eat, sleep, console (ESC) care approach substantially reduces the proportion of infants who receive pharmacologic treatment for neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome (NOWS). This reduction has led to concerns for increased postnatal opioid exposure in infants who receive pharmacologic treatment. However, the effect of the ESC care approach on hospital outcomes for infants pharmacologically treated for NOWS is currently unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate differences in opioid exposure and total length of hospital stay (LOS) for pharmacologically treated infants managed with the ESC care approach vs usual care with the Finnegan tool. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This post hoc subgroup analysis involved infants pharmacologically treated in ESC-NOW, a stepped-wedge cluster randomized clinical trial conducted at 26 US hospitals. Hospitals maintained pretrial practices for pharmacologic treatment, including opioid type, scheduled opioid dosing, and use of adjuvant medications. Infants were born at 36 weeks' gestation or later, had evidence of antenatal opioid exposure, and received opioid treatment for NOWS between September 2020 and March 2022. Data were analyzed from November 2022 to January 2024. EXPOSURE: Opioid treatment for NOWS and the ESC care approach. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: For each outcome (total opioid exposure, peak opioid dose, time from birth to initiation of first opioid dose, length of opioid treatment, and LOS), we used generalized linear mixed models to adjust for the stepped-wedge design and maternal and infant characteristics. RESULTS: In the ESC-NOW trial, 463 of 1305 infants were pharmacologically treated (143/603 [23.7%] in the ESC care approach group and 320/702 [45.6%] in the usual care group). Mean total opioid exposure was lower in the ESC care approach group with an absolute difference of 4.1 morphine milligram equivalents per kilogram (MME/kg) (95% CI, 1.3-7.0) when compared with usual care (4.8 MME/kg vs 8.9 MME/kg, respectively; P = .001). Mean time from birth to initiation of pharmacologic treatment was 22.4 hours (95% CI, 7.1-37.7) longer with the ESC care approach vs usual care (75.4 vs 53.0 hours, respectively; P = .002). No significant difference in mean peak opioid dose was observed between groups (ESC care approach, 0.147 MME/kg, vs usual care, 0.126 MME/kg). The mean length of treatment was 6.3 days shorter (95% CI, 3.0-9.6) in the ESC care approach group vs usual care group (11.8 vs 18.1 days, respectively; P < .001), and mean LOS was 6.2 days shorter (95% CI, 3.0-9.4) with the ESC care approach than with usual care (16.7 vs 22.9 days, respectively; P < .001). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: When compared with usual care, the ESC care approach was associated with less opioid exposure and shorter LOS for infants pharmacologically treated for NOWS. The ESC care approach was not associated with a higher peak opioid dose, although pharmacologic treatment was typically initiated later. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04057820. |
HIV preexposure prophylaxis with emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate among cisgender women
Marrazzo J , Tao L , Becker M , Leech AA , Taylor AW , Ussery F , Kiragu M , Reza-Paul S , Myers J , Bekker LG , Yang J , Carter C , de Boer M , Das M , Baeten JM , Celum C . Jama 2024 IMPORTANCE: Emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (F/TDF) for HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective in cisgender men who have sex with men (MSM) when adherence is high (>4 doses/week). Real-world effectiveness and adherence with F/TDF for PrEP in cisgender women is less well characterized. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the effectiveness of F/TDF for PrEP and its relationship with adherence in cisgender women. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were pooled from 11 F/TDF PrEP postapproval studies conducted in 6 countries that included 6296 cisgender women aged 15 to 69 years conducted from 2012 to 2020. HIV incidence was evaluated according to adherence level measured objectively (tenofovir diphosphate concentration in dried blood spots or tenofovir concentration in plasma; n = 288) and subjectively (electronic pill cap monitoring, pill counts, self-report, and study-reported adherence scale; n = 2954) using group-based trajectory modeling. EXPOSURES: F/TDF prescribed orally once a day. HIV incidence was analyzed in subgroups based on adherence trajectory. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: HIV incidence. RESULTS: Of the 6296 participants, 46% were from Kenya, 28% were from South Africa, 21% were from India, 2.9% were from Uganda, 1.6% were from Botswana, and 0.8% were from the US. The mean (SD) age at PrEP initiation across all studies was 25 (7) years, with 61% of participants being younger than 25 years. The overall HIV incidence was 0.72 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 0.51-1.01; 32 incident HIV diagnoses among 6296 participants). Four distinct groups of adherence trajectories were identified: consistently daily (7 doses/week), consistently high (4-6 doses/week), high but declining (from a mean of 4-6 doses/week and then declining), and consistently low (less than 2 doses/week). None of the 498 women with consistently daily adherence acquired HIV. Only 1 of the 658 women with consistently high adherence acquired HIV (incidence rate, 0.13/100 person-years [95% CI, 0.02-0.92]). The incidence rate was 0.49 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 0.22-1.08) in the high but declining adherence group (n = 1166) and 1.27 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 0.53-3.04) in the consistently low adherence group (n = 632). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a pooled analysis of 11 postapproval studies of F/TDF for PrEP among cisgender women, overall HIV incidence was 0.72 per 100 person-years; individuals with consistently daily or consistently high adherence (4-6 doses/week) to PrEP experienced very low HIV incidence. |
Introduction and spread of Dengue virus 3, Florida, USA, May 2022-April 2023
Jones FK , Morrison AM , Santiago GA , Rysava K , Zimler RA , Heberlein LA , Kopp E , Saunders KE , Baudin S , Rico E , Mejía-Echeverri Á , Taylor-Salmon E , Hill V , Breban MI , Vogels CBF , Grubaugh ND , Paul LM , Michael SF , Johansson MA , Adams LE , Munoz-Jordan J , Paz-Bailey G , Stanek DR . Emerg Infect Dis 2024 30 (2) 376-379 During May 2022-April 2023, dengue virus serotype 3 was identified among 601 travel-associated and 61 locally acquired dengue cases in Florida, USA. All 203 sequenced genomes belonged to the same genotype III lineage and revealed potential transmission chains in which most locally acquired cases occurred shortly after introduction, with little sustained transmission. |
Factors affecting maternal participation in the genetic component of the National Birth Defects Prevention Study-United States, 1997-2007.
Glidewell J , Reefhuis J , Rasmussen SA , Woomert A , Hobbs C , Romitti PA , Crider KS . Genet Med 2014 16 (4) 329-37 PURPOSE: As epidemiological studies expand to examine gene-environment interaction effects, it is important to identify factors associated with participation in genetic studies. The National Birth Defects Prevention Study is a multisite case-control study designed to investigate environmental and genetic risk factors for major birth defects. The National Birth Defects Prevention Study includes maternal telephone interviews and mailed buccal cell self-collection kits. Because subjects can participate in the interview, independent of buccal cell collection, detailed analysis of factors associated with participation in buccal cell collection was possible. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify the factors associated with participation in the genetic component of the study. RESULTS: Buccal cell participation rates varied by race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic whites, 66.9%; Hispanics, 60.4%; and non-Hispanic blacks, 47.3%) and study site (50.2-74.2%). Additional monetary incentive following return of buccal cell kit and shorter interval between infant's estimated date of delivery and interview were associated with increased participation across all racial/ethnic groups. Higher education and delivering an infant with a birth defect were associated with increased participation among non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics. CONCLUSION: Factors associated with participation varied by race/ethnicity. Improved understanding of factors associated with participation may facilitate strategies to increase participation, thereby improving generalizability of study findings. |
Phenylketonuria Scientific Review Conference: state of the science and future research needs.
Camp KM , Parisi MA , Acosta PB , Berry GT , Bilder DA , Blau N , Bodamer OA , Brosco JP , Brown CS , Burlina AB , Burton BK , Chang CS , Coates PM , Cunningham AC , Dobrowolski SF , Ferguson JH , Franklin TD , Frazier DM , Grange DK , Greene CL , Groft SC , Harding CO , Howell RR , Huntington KL , Hyatt-Knorr HD , Jevaji IP , Levy HL , Lichter-Konecki U , Lindegren ML , Lloyd-Puryear MA , Matalon K , MacDonald A , McPheeters ML , Mitchell JJ , Mofidi S , Moseley KD , Mueller CM , Mulberg AE , Nerurkar LS , Ogata BN , Pariser AR , Prasad S , Pridjian G , Rasmussen SA , Reddy UM , Rohr FJ , Singh RH , Sirrs SM , Stremer SE , Tagle DA , Thompson SM , Urv TK , Utz JR , van Spronsen F , Vockley J , Waisbren SE , Weglicki LS , White DA , Whitley CB , Wilfond BS , Yannicelli S , Young JM . Mol Genet Metab 2014 112 (2) 87-122 New developments in the treatment and management of phenylketonuria (PKU) as well as advances in molecular testing have emerged since the National Institutes of Health 2000 PKU Consensus Statement was released. An NIH State-of-the-Science Conference was convened in 2012 to address new findings, particularly the use of the medication sapropterin to treat some individuals with PKU, and to develop a research agenda. Prior to the 2012 conference, five working groups of experts and public members met over a 1-year period. The working groups addressed the following: long-term outcomes and management across the lifespan; PKU and pregnancy; diet control and management; pharmacologic interventions; and molecular testing, new technologies, and epidemiologic considerations. In a parallel and independent activity, an Evidence-based Practice Center supported by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality conducted a systematic review of adjuvant treatments for PKU; its conclusions were presented at the conference. The conference included the findings of the working groups, panel discussions from industry and international perspectives, and presentations on topics such as emerging treatments for PKU, transitioning to adult care, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulatory perspective. Over 85 experts participated in the conference through information gathering and/or as presenters during the conference, and they reached several important conclusions. The most serious neurological impairments in PKU are preventable with current dietary treatment approaches. However, a variety of more subtle physical, cognitive, and behavioral consequences of even well-controlled PKU are now recognized. The best outcomes in maternal PKU occur when blood phenylalanine (Phe) concentrations are maintained between 120 and 360 μmol/L before and during pregnancy. The dietary management treatment goal for individuals with PKU is a blood Phe concentration between 120 and 360 μmol/L. The use of genotype information in the newborn period may yield valuable insights about the severity of the condition for infants diagnosed before maximal Phe levels are achieved. While emerging and established genotype-phenotype correlations may transform our understanding of PKU, establishing correlations with intellectual outcomes is more challenging. Regarding the use of sapropterin in PKU, there are significant gaps in predicting response to treatment; at least half of those with PKU will have either minimal or no response. A coordinated approach to PKU treatment improves long-term outcomes for those with PKU and facilitates the conduct of research to improve diagnosis and treatment. New drugs that are safe, efficacious, and impact a larger proportion of individuals with PKU are needed. However, it is imperative that treatment guidelines and the decision processes for determining access to treatments be tied to a solid evidence base with rigorous standards for robust and consistent data collection. The process that preceded the PKU State-of-the-Science Conference, the conference itself, and the identification of a research agenda have facilitated the development of clinical practice guidelines by professional organizations and serve as a model for other inborn errors of metabolism. |
Rapid outbreak sequencing of Ebola virus in Sierra Leone identifies transmission chains linked to sporadic cases.
Arias A , Watson SJ , Asogun D , Tobin EA , Lu J , Phan MVT , Jah U , Wadoum REG , Meredith L , Thorne L , Caddy S , Tarawalie A , Langat P , Dudas G , Faria NR , Dellicour S , Kamara A , Kargbo B , Kamara BO , Gevao S , Cooper D , Newport M , Horby P , Dunning J , Sahr F , Brooks T , Simpson AJH , Groppelli E , Liu G , Mulakken N , Rhodes K , Akpablie J , Yoti Z , Lamunu M , Vitto E , Otim P , Owilli C , Boateng I , Okoror L , Omomoh E , Oyakhilome J , Omiunu R , Yemisis I , Adomeh D , Ehikhiametalor S , Akhilomen P , Aire C , Kurth A , Cook N , Baumann J , Gabriel M , Wölfel R , Di Caro A , Carroll MW , Günther S , Redd J , Naidoo D , Pybus OG , Rambaut A , Kellam P , Goodfellow I , Cotten M . Virus Evol 2016 2 (1) vew016 To end the largest known outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa and to prevent new transmissions, rapid epidemiological tracing of cases and contacts was required. The ability to quickly identify unknown sources and chains of transmission is key to ending the EVD epidemic and of even greater importance in the context of recent reports of Ebola virus (EBOV) persistence in survivors. Phylogenetic analysis of complete EBOV genomes can provide important information on the source of any new infection. A local deep sequencing facility was established at the Mateneh Ebola Treatment Centre in central Sierra Leone. The facility included all wetlab and computational resources to rapidly process EBOV diagnostic samples into full genome sequences. We produced 554 EBOV genomes from EVD cases across Sierra Leone. These genomes provided a detailed description of EBOV evolution and facilitated phylogenetic tracking of new EVD cases. Importantly, we show that linked genomic and epidemiological data can not only support contact tracing but also identify unconventional transmission chains involving body fluids, including semen. Rapid EBOV genome sequencing, when linked to epidemiological information and a comprehensive database of virus sequences across the outbreak, provided a powerful tool for public health epidemic control efforts. |
Molecular epidemiology: linking molecular scale insights to population impacts.
Schulte PA , Rothman N , Hainaut P , Smith MT , Boffetta P , Perera FP . IARC Sci Publ 2011 (163) 1-7 In a broad sense, molecular epidemiology is the axis that unites insights at the molecular level and understanding of disease at the population level. It is also a partnership between epidemiologists and laboratory scientists in which investigations are conducted using the principles of both disciplines. A key trait of molecular epidemiology is to evaluate and establish the relationship between a biomarker and important exogenous and endogenous exposures, susceptibility, or disease, providing understanding that can be used in future research and public health and clinical practice. When potential solutions or interventions are identified, molecular epidemiology is also useful in developing and conducting clinical and intervention trials. It can then contribute to the translation of biomedical research into practical public health and clinical applications by addressing the medical and population implications of molecular phenomena in terms of reducing risk of disease. This chapter summarizes the contributions and research endeavours of molecular epidemiology and how they link with public health initiatives and clinical practice. |
Epidemiologic and genetic characteristics of mumps viruses isolated in China from 1995 to 2010.
Cui A , Zhu Z , Chen M , Zheng H , Liu L , Wang Y , Ma Y , Wang C , Fang X , Li P , Guan R , Wang S , Zhou J , Zheng L , Gao H , Ding Z , Li L , Bo F , Sun Z , Zhang Z , Feng D , He J , Chen H , Jin L , Rota PA , Xu W . Infect Genet Evol 2014 21 384-90 The epidemiologic and genetic characteristics of mumps viruses detected in China from 1995 to 2010 were analyzed in this study. Mumps remains endemic in China with a high overall incidence rate. The incidence of mumps in Western China was higher than that in other regions of the country. Each year, most of mumps cases occurred between April and July, but a small peak also occurred in November and December. Mumps cases primarily affected the under 15 year old age group. Virologic data demonstrated that genotype F was the predominant circulating genotype throughout China for at least 15 years and no other genotype was detected between 1995 and 2010. Analysis of sequence data from the small hydrophobic (SH) gene indicated that multiple transmission chains of genotype F were found in various provinces of China, with no apparent chronologic and geographic restriction. This is the first report describing the epidemiology of mumps and genetic characterization of mumps viruses at the national level in China. |
Sex-specific racial and ethnic variations in short-term outcomes among patients with first or recurrent ischemic stroke: Paul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Program, 2016-2020
Asaithambi G , George MG , Tong X , Lakshminarayan K . J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis 2024 107560 BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To understand the association of sex-specific race and ethnicity on the short-term outcomes of initial and recurrent ischemic stroke events. METHODS: Using the Paul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Program from 2016-2020, we examined 426,062 ischemic stroke admissions from 629 hospitals limited to non-Hispanic White (NHW), non-Hispanic Black (NHB), and Hispanic patients. We performed multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess the combined effects of sex-specific race and ethnicity on short-term outcomes for acute ischemic stroke patients presenting with initial or recurrent stroke events. Outcomes assessed include rates of in-hospital death, discharge to home, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after reperfusion treatment. RESULTS: Among studied patients, the likelihood of developing sICH after reperfusion treatment for initial ischemic stroke was not significantly different. The likelihood of experiencing in-hospital death among patients presenting with initial stroke was notably higher among NHW males (AOR 1.59 [95% CI 1.46, 1.73]), NHW females (AOR 1.34 [95% CI 1.23, 1.45]), and Hispanic males (AOR 1.57 [95% CI 1.36, 1.81]) when compared to NHB females. Hispanic females were more likely to be discharged home when compared to NHB females after initial stroke event (AOR 1.32 [95% CI 1.23, 1.41]). NHB males (AOR 0.90 [95% CI 0.87, 0.94]) and NHW females (AOR 0.89 [95% CI 0.86, 0.92]) were less likely to be discharged to home. All groups with recurrent ischemic strokes experienced higher likelihood of in-hospital death when compared to NHB females with the highest likelihood among NHW males (AOR 2.13 [95% CI 1.87, 2.43]). Hispanic females had a higher likelihood of discharging home when compared to NHB females hospitalized for recurrent ischemic stroke, while NHB males and NHW females with recurrent ischemic stroke hospitalizations were less likely to discharge home. CONCLUSIONS: Sex-specific race and ethnic disparities remain for short-term outcomes in both initial and recurrent ischemic stroke hospitalizations. Further studies are needed to address disparities among recurrent ischemic stroke hospitalizations. |
Modeling the impacts of antiviral prophylaxis strategies in mitigating seasonal influenza outbreaks in nursing homes
Morris SE , Zipfel CM , Peer K , Madewell ZJ , Brenner S , Garg S , Paul P , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M . Clin Infect Dis 2023 BACKGROUND: Antiviral chemoprophylaxis is recommended for use during influenza outbreaks in nursing homes to prevent transmission and severe disease among non-ill residents. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance recommends prophylaxis be initiated for all non-ill residents once an influenza outbreak is detected and be continued for at least 14 days and until seven days after the last laboratory-confirmed influenza case is identified. However, not all facilities strictly adhere to this guidance and the impact of such partial adherence is not fully understood. METHODS: We developed a stochastic compartmental framework to model influenza transmission within an average-sized U.S. nursing home. We compared the number of symptomatic illnesses and hospitalizations under varying prophylaxis implementation strategies, in addition to different levels of prophylaxis uptake and adherence by residents and healthcare personnel (HCP). RESULTS: Prophylaxis implemented according to current guidance reduced total symptomatic illnesses and hospitalizations among residents by an average of 12% and 36%, respectively, compared with no prophylaxis. We did not find evidence that alternative implementations of prophylaxis were more effective: compared to full adoption of current guidance, partial adoption resulted in increased symptomatic illnesses and/or hospitalizations, and longer or earlier adoption offered no additional improvements. In addition, increasing uptake and adherence among nursing home residents was effective in reducing resident illnesses and hospitalizations, but increasing HCP uptake had minimal indirect impacts for residents. CONCLUSIONS: The greatest benefits of influenza prophylaxis during nursing home outbreaks will likely be achieved through increasing uptake and adherence among residents and following current CDC guidance. |
Incidence of hyperlipidemia among adults initiating antiretroviral therapy in the HIV Outpatient Study (HOPS), USA, 2007-2021
Li J , Agbobli-Nuwoaty S , Palella FJ , Novak RM , Tedaldi E , Mayer C , Mahnken JD , Hou Q , Carlson K , Thompson-Paul AM , Durham MD , Buchacz K . AIDS Res Treat 2023 2023 4423132 Current U.S. guidelines recommend integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) as initial treatment for people with HIV (PWH). We assessed long-term effects of INSTI use on lipid profiles in routine HIV care. We analyzed medical record data from the HIV Outpatient Study's participants in care from 2007 to 2021. Hyperlipidemia was defined based on clinical diagnoses, treatments, and laboratory results. We calculated hyperlipidemia incidence rates and rate ratios (RRs) during initial ART and assessed predictors of incident hyperlipidemia by using Poisson regression. Among 349 eligible ART-naïve PWH, 168 were prescribed INSTI-based ART (36 raltegravir (RAL), 51 dolutegravir (DTG), and 81 INSTI-others (elvitegravir and bictegravir)) and 181 non-INSTI-based ART, including 68 protease inhibitor (PI)-based ART. During a median follow-up of 1.4 years, hyperlipidemia rates were 12.8, 22.3, 22.7, 17.4, and 12.6 per 100 person years for RAL-, DTG-, INSTI-others-, non-INSTI-PI-, and non-INSTI-non-PI-based ART, respectively. In multivariable analysis, compared with the RAL group, hyperlipidemia rates were higher in INSTI-others (RR = 2.25; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-3.93) and non-INSTI-PI groups (RR = 1.89; CI: 1.12-3.19) but not statistically higher for the DTG (RR = 1.73; CI: 0.95-3.17) and non-INSTI-non-PI groups (RR = 1.55; CI: 0.92-2.62). Other factors independently associated with hyperlipidemia included older age, non-Hispanic White race/ethnicity, and ART without tenofovir disoproxil fumarate. PWH using RAL-based regimens had lower rates of incident hyperlipidemia than PWH receiving non-INSTI-PI-based ART but had similar rates as those receiving DTG-based ART, supporting federal recommendations for using DTG-based regimens as the initial therapy for ART-naïve PWH. |
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Howerton E , Contamin L , Mullany LC , Qin M , Reich NG , Bents S , Borchering RK , Jung SM , Loo SL , Smith CP , Levander J , Kerr J , Espino J , van Panhuis WG , Hochheiser H , Galanti M , Yamana T , Pei S , Shaman J , Rainwater-Lovett K , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Shin L , Lemaitre JC , Kaminsky J , Hulse JD , Lee EC , McKee CD , Hill A , Karlen D , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Rosenstrom ET , Ivy JS , Mayorga ME , Swann JL , España G , Cavany S , Moore S , Perkins A , Hladish T , Pillai A , Ben Toh K , Longini I Jr , Chen S , Paul R , Janies D , Thill JC , Bouchnita A , Bi K , Lachmann M , Fox SJ , Meyers LA , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Hurt B , Chen J , Mortveit H , Wilson A , Marathe M , Hoops S , Bhattacharya P , Machi D , Cadwell BL , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Truelove S , Runge MC , Shea K , Viboud C , Lessler J . Nat Commun 2023 14 (1) 7260 Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections. |
Effectiveness of self-collected, ambient temperature-preserved nasal swabs compared to samples collected by trained staff for genotyping of respiratory viruses by shotgun RNA sequencing: Comparative study
Soto R , Paul L , Porucznik CA , Xie H , Stinnett RC , Briggs B , Biggerstaff M , Stanford J , Schlaberg R . JMIR Form Res 2023 7 e32848 BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has underscored the need for field specimen collection and transport to diagnostic and public health laboratories. Self-collected nasal swabs transported without dependency on a cold chain have the potential to remove critical barriers to testing, expand testing capacity, and reduce opportunities for exposure of health professionals in the context of a pandemic. OBJECTIVE: We compared nasal swab collection by study participants from themselves and their children at home to collection by trained research staff. METHODS: Each adult participant collected 1 nasal swab, sampling both nares with the single swab, after which they collected 1 nasal swab from 1 child. After all the participant samples were collected for the household, the research staff member collected a separate single duplicate sample from each individual. Immediately after the sample collection, the adult participants completed a questionnaire about the acceptability of the sampling procedures. Swabs were placed in temperature-stable preservative and respiratory viruses were detected by shotgun RNA sequencing, enabling viral genome analysis. RESULTS: In total, 21 households participated in the study, each with 1 adult and 1 child, yielding 42 individuals with paired samples. Study participants reported that self-collection was acceptable. Agreement between identified respiratory viruses in both swabs by RNA sequencing demonstrated that adequate collection technique was achieved by brief instructions. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the feasibility of a scalable and convenient means for the identification of respiratory viruses and implementation in pandemic preparedness for novel respiratory pathogens. |
Hypertension prevalence and control among U.S. Women of reproductive age
Weng X , Woodruff RC , Park S , Thompson-Paul AM , He S , Hayes D , Kuklina E , Therrien NL , Jackson SL . Am J Prev Med 2023 INTRODUCTION: Hypertension is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, a leading cause of death among women of reproductive age (WRA, women aged 18-44 years). This study estimated hypertension prevalence and control among WRA at the national and state levels using electronic health record (EHR) data. METHODS: Non-pregnant WRA were included in this cross-sectional study using 2019 IQVIA™ Ambulatory Electronic Medical Records - US national data (analyzed in 2023). Suspected hypertension was identified using any of these criteria: ≥1 hypertension diagnosis code, ≥2 blood pressure (BP) readings ≥140/90 mmHg on separate days, or ≥1 antihypertensive medication. Among WRA with hypertension, the latest BP in 2019 was used to identify hypertension control (BP <140/90 mmHg). Estimates were age standardized and stratified by race or Hispanic ethnicity, region, and states with sufficient data. Tukey tests compared estimates by race or Hispanic ethnicity, region, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Among 2,125,084 WRA (62.1% White, 8.8% Black, and 29.1% other [including Hispanic, Asian, other, or unknown]) with a mean age of 31.7 years, hypertension prevalence was 14.5%. Of those with hypertension, 71.9% had controlled BP. Black WRA had a higher hypertension prevalence (22.3% vs. 14.4%, p<0.05) but lower control (60.6% vs. 73.9%, p<0.05) than White WRA. State-level hypertension prevalence ranged from 13.7% (Massachusetts) to 36% (Alabama), and control ranged from 82.9% (Kansas) to 59.2% (the District of Columbia). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first state-level estimates of hypertension control among WRA. EHR data complements traditional hypertension surveillance data and provides further information for efforts to prevent and manage hypertension among WRA. |
Changes in provider perceptions and practices regarding dosing units for oral liquid medications
Lind JN , Lovegrove MC , Paul IM , Shonna Yin H , Budnitz DS . Acad Pediatr 2023 OBJECTIVE: A 2015 survey of primary care providers (PCPs) found that while many believed that milliliter (mL)-only dosing was safest for oral liquid medications, few would use mL alone in dosing instructions. Since 2015, many recommendations have promoted "mL-only" dosing. In 2019, a follow-up survey was conducted to assess if PCP perceptions and practices have changed. METHODS: Pediatricians, family medicine physicians, nurse practitioners, and internists participating in the 2015 and 2019 DocStyles cross-sectional, web-based surveys were asked about their perceptions and practices regarding dosing units for oral liquid medications. RESULTS: In 2019, among 1392 respondents, the proportion of PCPs who reported they believed using mL-only is the safest dosing instruction ranged from 55.1% of internists to 80.8% of pediatricians. While fewer PCPs believed patients/caregivers prefer dosing instructions in mL-only (23.9% of nurse practitioners to 48.4% of pediatricians), more held this belief in 2019 compared to 2015; pediatricians had the greatest absolute increase (+14.4%) and family medicine physicians had the smallest increase (+1.3%). While 61.6% of pediatricians reported they would use mL-only dosing, only 36.0% of internists, 36.6% of nurse practitioners, and 42.5% of family medicine physicians reported they would do so. After controlling for age, gender, region, and specialty, 2019 PCP survey participants were more likely to report that they would use mL-only dosing compared to 2015 participants (adjusted odds ratio 1.51, 95% confidence interval 1.29-1.77). CONCLUSIONS: Broader educational efforts may be necessary to reach non-pediatricians, to encourage prescribing and communication with patients/caregivers using mL-only dosing. |
Measles virus transmission patterns and public health responses during Operation Allies Welcome: a descriptive epidemiological study
Masters NB , Beck AS , Mathis AD , Leung J , Raines K , Paul P , Stanley SE , Weg AL , Pieracci EG , Gearhart S , Jumabaeva M , Bankamp B , Rota PA , Sugerman DE , Gastañaduy PA . Lancet Public Health 2023 8 (8) e618-e628 BACKGROUND: On Aug 29, 2021, Operation Allies Welcome (OAW) was established to support the resettlement of more than 80 000 Afghan evacuees in the USA. After identification of measles among evacuees, incoming evacuee flights were temporarily paused, and mass measles vaccination of evacuees aged 6 months or older was introduced domestically and overseas, with a 21-day quarantine period after vaccination. We aimed to evaluate patterns of measles virus transmission during this outbreak and the impact of control measures. METHODS: We conducted a measles outbreak investigation among Afghan evacuees who were resettled in the USA as part of OAW. Patients with measles were defined as individuals with an acute febrile rash illness between Aug 29, 2021, and Nov 26, 2021, and either laboratory confirmation of infection or epidemiological link to a patient with measles with laboratory confirmation. We analysed the demographics and clinical characteristics of patients with measles and used epidemiological information and whole-genome sequencing to track transmission pathways. A transmission model was used to evaluate the effects of vaccination and other interventions. FINDINGS: 47 people with measles (attack rate: 0·65 per 1000 evacuees) were reported in six US locations housing evacuees in four states. The median age of patients was 1 year (range 0-26); 33 (70%) were younger than 5 years. The age distribution shifted during the outbreak towards infants younger than 12 months. 20 (43%) patients with wild-type measles virus had rash onset after vaccination. No fatalities or community spread were identified, nor further importations after flight resumption. In a non-intervention scenario, transmission models estimated that a median of 5506 cases (IQR 10-5626) could have occurred. Infection clusters based on epidemiological criteria could be delineated into smaller clusters using phylogenetic analyses; however, sequences with few substitution count differences did not always indicate single lines of transmission. INTERPRETATION: Implementation of control measures limited measles transmission during OAW. Our findings highlight the importance of integration between epidemiological and genetic information in discerning between individual lines of transmission in an elimination setting. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. |
The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset (preprint)
Cramer EY , Huang Y , Wang Y , Ray EL , Cornell M , Bracher J , Brennen A , Rivadeneira AJC , Gerding A , House K , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mody V , Mody V , Niemi J , Stark A , Shah A , Wattanchit N , Zorn MW , Reich NG , US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium , Lopez VK , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M . medRxiv 2021 2021.11.04.21265886 Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident hospitalizations, incident cases, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at national, state, and county levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work. Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below: AIpert-pwllnod: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Caltech-CS156: Gary Clinard Innovation Fund; CEID-Walk: University of Georgia; CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook; COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health; Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information & Data Science Pilot Project; Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation; DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699; epiforecasts-ensemble1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) FDANIHASU: supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH/NIDDK; GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowment, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines, CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement; IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096); Imperial-ensemble1: SB acknowledges funding from the Wellcome Trust (219415); Institute of Business Forecasting: IBF; IowaStateLW-STEM: NSF DMS-1916204, Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics; IUPUI CIS: NSF; JHU_CSSE-DECOM: JHU CSSE: National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Real-time Forecasting of COVID-19 risk in the USA. 2021-2022. Award ID: 2108526. National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Development of an interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real-time. 2020. Award ID: 2028604; JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant); JHU_UNC_GAS-StatMechP ol: NIH NIGMS: R01GM140564; JHUAPL-Bucky: US Dept of Health and Human Services; KITmetricslab-select_ensemble: Daniel Wolffram gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER; MIT-Cassandra: MIT Quest for Intelligence; MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01; CA NU38OT000297 from the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE); NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; NotreDame-mobility: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; PSI-DRAFT: NSF RAPID Grant # 2031536; QJHong-Encounter: NSF DMR-2001411 and DMR-1835939; SDSC_ISG-TrendModel: The development of the dashboard was partly funded by the Fondation Privee des Hopitaux Universitaires de Geneve; UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401; UChicagoCHATTOPADHYAY-UnIT: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) #HR00111890043/P00004 (I. Chattopadhyay, University of Chicago); UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626; UCSD_NEU-DeepGLEAM: Google Faculty Award, W31P4Q-21-C-0014; UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS #R35GM119582, NSF #1749854, NIGMS #R35GM119582; UMich-RidgeTfReg: This project is funded by the University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research; UVA-Ensemble: National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141; Wadnwani_AI-BayesOpt: This study is made possible by the generous support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The work described in this article was implemented under the TRACETB Project, managed by WIAI under the terms of Cooperative Agreement Number 72038620CA00006. The contents of this manuscript are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government; WalmartLabsML-LogForecasting: Team acknowledges Walmart to support this study Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesI confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data produced are available online at https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub |
Modeling effectiveness of testing strategies to prevent COVID-19 in nursing homes —United States, 2020 (preprint)
See I , Paul P , Slayton RB , Steele MK , Stuckey MJ , Duca L , Srinivasan A , Stone N , Jernigan JA , Reddy SC . medRxiv 2021 2020.12.18.20248255 Background SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in nursing homes can be large with high case fatality. Identifying asymptomatic individuals early through serial testing is recommended to control COVID-19 in nursing homes, both in response to an outbreak (“outbreak testing” of residents and healthcare personnel) and in facilities without outbreaks (“non-outbreak testing” of healthcare personnel). The effectiveness of outbreak testing and isolation with or without non-outbreak testing was evaluated.Methods Using published SARS-CoV-2 transmission parameters, the fraction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions prevented through serial testing (weekly, every three days, or daily) and isolation of asymptomatic persons compared to symptom-based testing and isolation was evaluated through mathematical modeling using a Reed-Frost model to estimate the percentage of cases prevented (i.e., “effectiveness”) through either outbreak testing alone or outbreak plus non-outbreak testing. The potential effect of simultaneous decreases (by 10%) in the effectiveness of isolating infected individuals when instituting testing strategies was also evaluated.Results Modeling suggests that outbreak testing could prevent 54% (weekly testing with 48-hour test turnaround) to 92% (daily testing with immediate results and 50% relative sensitivity) of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Adding non-outbreak testing could prevent up to an additional 8% of SARS-CoV-2 infections (depending on test frequency and turnaround time). However, added benefits of non-outbreak testing were mostly negated if accompanied by decreases in infection control practice.Conclusions When combined with high-quality infection control practices, outbreak testing could be an effective approach to preventing COVID-19 in nursing homes, particularly if optimized through increased test frequency and use of tests with rapid turnaround.Summary Mathematical modeling evaluated the effectiveness of serially testing asymptomatic persons in a nursing home in response to a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak with or without serial testing of asymptomatic staff in the absence of known SARS-CoV-2 infections.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementNo external funding was received. All work was conducted as part of government duties.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:This activity was reviewed by CDC and was conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy (see e.g., 45 C.F.R. part 46, 21 C.F.R. part 56; 42 U.S.C. 241(d); 5 U.S.C 552a; 44 U.S.C. 351 et seq.).All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData provided in supplemental materials or publicly available through links in the manuscript. https://github.com/cdcepi/Nursing-home-SARS-CoV-2-testing-model/ |
Evaluation of Different Types of Face Masks to Limit the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 – A Modeling Study (preprint)
Gurbaxani BM , Hill AN , Paul P , Prasad PV , Slayton RB . medRxiv 2021 2021.04.21.21255889 We updated a published mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with laboratory-derived source and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face masks to estimate their impact on COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in the United States. When used at already-observed population rates of 80% for those ≥65 years and 60% for those <65 years, face masks are associated with 69% (cloth) to 78% (medical procedure mask) reductions in cumulative COVID-19 infections and 82% (cloth) to 87% (medical procedure mask) reductions in related deaths over a 6-month timeline in the model, assuming a basic reproductive number of 2.5. If cloth or medical procedure masks’ source control and wearer protection efficacies are boosted about 30% each to 84% and 60% by cloth over medical procedure masking, fitters, or braces, the COVID-19 basic reproductive number of 2.5 could be reduced to an effective reproductive number ≤ 1.0, and from 6.0 to 2.3 for a variant of concern similar to delta (B.1.617.2).Article Summary Line Adapting a published SARS-CoV-2 transmission model together with updated, laboratory-derived source control and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face coverings as well as N95 respirators, we demonstrate that community masking as currently practiced has likely reduced cases and deaths and that this benefit can be increased with wider adoption of better performing masks.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Clinical TrialThis is an epidemiological modeling study, not a clinical trialFunding StatementNo external funding was received.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:No IRB was needed as this is an epidemiological modeling study.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data/parameters used in the models are reported in the manuscript. Code is available upon request. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Reducing travel-related SARS-CoV-2 transmission with layered mitigation measures: Symptom monitoring, quarantine, and testing (preprint)
Johansson MA , Wolford H , Paul P , Diaz PS , Chen TH , Brown CM , Cetron MS , Alvarado-Ramy F . medRxiv 2020 2020.11.23.20237412 Balancing the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with the resumption of travel is a global priority. Current recommendations include mitigation measures before, during, and after travel. Pre- and post-travel strategies including symptom monitoring, testing, and quarantine can be combined in multiple ways considering different trade-offs in feasibility, adherence, effectiveness, cost and adverse consequences. Here we use a mathematical model to analyze the expected effectiveness of symptom monitoring, testing, and quarantine under different estimates of the infectious period, test-positivity relative to time of infection, and test sensitivity to reduce the risk of transmission from infected travelers during and after travel. If infection occurs 0-7 days prior to travel, immediate isolation following symptom onset prior to or during travel reduces risk of transmission while traveling by 26-30%. Pre-departure testing can further reduce risk if testing is close to the time of departure. For example, testing on the day of departure can reduce risk while traveling by 37-61%. For transmission risk after travel with infection time up to 7 days prior to arrival at the destination, isolation based on symptom monitoring reduced introduction risk at the destination by 42-56%. A 14-day quarantine after arrival, without symptom monitoring or testing, can reduce risk by 97-100% on its own. However, a shorter quarantine of 7 days combined with symptom monitoring and a test on day 3-4 after arrival is also effective (95-99%) at reducing introduction risk and is less burdensome, which may improve adherence. To reduce the risk of introduction without quarantine, optimal test timing after arrival is close to the time of arrival; with effective quarantine after arrival, testing a few days later optimizes sensitivity to detect those infected immediately before or while traveling. These measures can complement recommendations such as social distancing, using masks, and hand hygiene, to further reduce risk during and after travel.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementNo external funding supported this research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:Centers for Disease Control and PreventionAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesOnly publicly available data informed this research. |
Probabilistic reconstruction of measles transmission clusters from routinely collected surveillance data (preprint)
Robert A , Kucharski AJ , Gastanaduy PA , Paul P , Funk S . medRxiv 2020 2020.02.13.20020891 Pockets of susceptibility resulting from spatial or social heterogeneity in vaccine coverage can drive measles outbreaks, as cases imported into such pockets are likely to cause further transmission and lead to large transmission clusters. Characterising the dynamics of transmission is essential for identifying which individuals and regions might be most at risk.As data from detailed contact tracing investigations are not available in many settings, we developed a R package called o2geosocial to reconstruct the transmission clusters and the importation status of the cases from their age, location, genotype, and onset date.We compared our inferred cluster size distributions to 737 transmission clusters identified through detailed contact-tracing in the United States between 2001 and 2016. We were able to reconstruct the importation status of the cases and found good agreement between the inferred and reference clusters. The results were improved when the contact-tracing investigations were used to set the importation status before running the model.Spatial heterogeneity in vaccine coverage is difficult to measure directly. Our approach was able to highlight areas with potential for local transmission using a minimal number of variables and could be applied to assess the intensity of ongoing transmission in a region.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementAR was supported by the Medical Research Council (MR/N013638/1). SF was supported by a Wellcome Trust Senior Research Fellowship in Basic Biomedical Science (210758/Z/18/Z). AJK was supported by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (206250/Z/17/Z).Author DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesThe package we developed is publicly available on Github (https://github.com/alxsrobert/o2geosocial), along with the code used to analyse the data and generate the figures (https://github.com/alxsrobert/datapaperMO). Combinations of variables in the surveillance data used to validate this algorithm may contain sensitive personally identifiable health information which are subject to the Privacy Act and cannot be shared publicly. A toy dataset was attached to the o2geosocial package (in o2geosocial/data). The script analysis_generated_data.R in the datapaperMO repository generates toy datasets with different parameters (distance kernel, number of cases, reproduction numbers..) and can be used to re-run the model and test its performance. https://github.com/alxsrobert/o2geosocial https://github.com/alxsrobert/datapaperMO |
Insecticide resistance status of Aedes aegypti in Bangladesh (preprint)
Al-Amin HM , Johora FT , Irish SR , Hossainey MRH , Vizcaino L , Paul KK , Khan WA , Haque R , Alam MS , Lenhart A . bioRxiv 2020 2020.07.31.231076 Background Arboviral diseases including dengue and chikungunya are major public health concern in Bangladesh, with unprecedented levels of transmission reported in recent years. The primary approach to control these diseases is control of Aedes aegypti using pyrethroid insecticides. Although chemical control is long-practiced, no comprehensive analysis of Ae. aegypti susceptibility to insecticides has previously been conducted. This study aimed to determine the insecticide resistance status of Ae. aegypti in Bangladesh and investigate the role of detoxification enzymes and altered target site sensitivity as resistance mechanisms.Methods Aedes eggs were collected using ovitraps from five districts across the country and in eight neighborhoods of the capital city Dhaka from August to November 2017. CDC bottle bioassays were conducted for permethrin, deltamethrin, malathion, and bendiocarb using 3-5-day old F0-F2 non-blood fed female mosquitoes. Biochemical assays were conducted to detect metabolic resistance mechanisms and real-time PCR was performed to determine the frequencies of the knockdown resistance (kdr) mutations Gly1016, Cys1534, and Leu410.Results High levels of resistance to permethrin were detected in all Ae. aegypti populations, with mortality ranging from 0 – 14.8% at the diagnostic dose. Substantial resistance continued to be detected against higher (2X) doses of permethrin (5.1 – 44.4% mortality). Susceptibility to deltamethrin and malathion varied between populations while complete susceptibility to bendiocarb was observed in all populations. Significantly higher levels of esterase and oxidase activity were detected in most of the test populations as compared to the susceptible reference Rockefeller strain. A significant association was detected between permethrin resistance and the presence of Gly1016 and Cys1534 homozygotes. The frequency of kdr alleles varied across the Dhaka populations, and Leu410 was not detected in any of the tested populations.Conclusions The detection of widespread pyrethroid resistance and multiple mechanisms highlights the urgency for implementing alternate Ae. aegypti control strategies. In addition, implementing routine monitoring of insecticide resistance in Ae. aegypti in Bangladesh will lead to a greater understanding of susceptibility trends over space and time, thereby enabling the development of improved control strategies.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.AChEacetylcholine esterase;BIBreteau Index;β-ESTβ esterase;CIconfidence intervals;DDTdichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane;DTNBdithio-bis-2-nitrobenzoic acid;GSTsglutathione S-transferases;HWEHardy-Weinberg equilibrium;IRSindoor residual spraying;IACHEinsensitive acetylcholine esterase;icddr,bInternational Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh;kdrknockdown resistance:LLINslong-lasting insecticidal nets:MFOsmixed-function oxidases;ODoptical density;ROCKRockefeller;CDCU.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention;VGSCvoltage-gated sodium channel;WHOWorld Health Organization |
Quantifying the roles of vomiting, diarrhea, and residents vs. staff in norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home outbreaks (preprint)
Adams C , Young D , Gastanaduy PA , Paul P , Marsh Z , Hall AJ , Lopman BA . bioRxiv 2019 707356 The role of individual case characteristics, such as symptoms or demographics, in norovirus transmissibility is poorly understood. Six nursing home norovirus outbreaks occurring in South Carolina, U.S. from 2014 to 2016 were examined. We aimed to quantify the contribution of symptoms and other case characteristics in norovirus transmission using the reproduction number (REi) as an estimate of individual case infectivity and to examine how transmission changes over the course of an outbreak. Individual estimates of REi were calculated using a maximum likelihood procedure to infer the average number of secondary cases generated by each case. The associations between case characteristics and REi were estimated using a multivariate mixed linear model. Outbreaks began with one to three index case(s) with large estimated REi’s (range: 1.48 to 8.70) relative to subsequent cases. Of the 209 cases, 155 (75%) vomited, 164 (79%) had diarrhea, and 158 (76%) were nursing home residents (vs. staff). Cases who vomited infected 2.74 (95% CI: 1.90, 3.94) more individuals than non-vomiters, cases with diarrhea infected 1.62 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.41) more individuals than cases without diarrhea, and resident-cases infected 1.69 (95% CI: 1.18, 2.42) more individuals than staff-cases. Index cases tended to be residents (vs. staff) who vomited and infected considerably more secondary cases compared to non-index cases. Results suggest that individuals, particularly residents, who vomit are more infectious and tend to drive norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home norovirus outbreaks. While diarrhea also plays a role in norovirus transmission, it is to a lesser degree than vomiting in these settings. Results lend support for prevention and control measures that focus on cases who vomit, particularly if those cases are residents.Author summary The majority of all norovirus outbreaks reported to the CDC occur in long-term care facilities (LTCFs), including nursing homes, where older residents are at risk for more severe or prolonged infection. Because there is currently no publicly available norovirus vaccine, sound control measures are key to controlling norovirus outbreaks, but there is little evidence that standard control measures are effective in reducing the size and/or duration of LTCF norovirus outbreaks. Hence, studies leading to a better understanding of disease spread and prevention of additional cases, and thus more effective control measures, are needed. To this end, we aimed to quantify factors associated with norovirus transmission and to examine how transmission changes over the course of an outbreak. We show that vomiting and, to a lesser extent, diarrhea are critical in initiating and sustaining norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home norovirus outbreaks. We also show that nursing home residents, rather than staff, are the primary drivers of transmission. Results suggest that control measures focusing on cases who vomit, particularly if those cases are residents, would be most effective at curtailing norovirus transmission in these settings. |
Hepatitis E as a cause of adult hospitalization in Bangladesh: Results from an acute jaundice surveillance study in six tertiary hospitals, 2014-2017 (preprint)
Paul RC , Nazneen A , Banik KC , Sumon SA , Paul KK , Akram A , Uzzaman MS , Iqbal T , Tejada-Strop A , Kamili S , Luby SP , Gidding HF , Hayen A , Gurley ES . bioRxiv 2019 688721 In the absence of reliable data on the burden of hepatitis E virus (HEV) in high endemic countries, we established a hospital-based acute jaundice surveillance program in six tertiary hospitals in Bangladesh to estimate the burden of HEV infection among hospitalized acute jaundice patients aged ≥14 years, identify seasonal and geographic patterns in the prevalence of hepatitis E, and examine factors associated with death.We collected blood specimens from enrolled acute jaundice patients, defined as new onset of either yellow eyes or skin during the past three months of hospital admission, and tested for immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies against HEV, HBV and HAV. The enrolled patients were followed up three months after hospital discharge to assess their survival status; pregnant women were followed up three months after their delivery to assess pregnancy outcomes.From December’2014 to September’2017, 1925 patients with acute jaundice were enrolled; 661 (34%) had acute hepatitis E, 48 (8%) had hepatitis A, and 293 (15%) had acute hepatitis B infection. Case fatality among hepatitis E patients was 5% (28/589). Most of the hepatitis E cases were males (74%; 486/661), but case fatality was higher among females—12% (8/68) among pregnant and 8% (7/91) among non-pregnant women. Half of the patients who died with acute hepatitis E had co-infection with HAV or HBV. Of the 62 HEV infected mothers who were alive until the delivery, 9 (15%) had miscarriage/stillbirth, and of those children who were born alive, 19% (10/53) died, all within one week of birth.This study confirms that hepatitis E is the leading cause of acute jaundice, leads to hospitalizations in all regions in Bangladesh, occurs throughout the year, and is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Effective control measures should be taken to reduce the risk of HEV infections including improvements in water quality, sanitation and hygiene practices and the introduction of HEV vaccine to high-risk groups.Author summary In the absence of reliable surveillance data on the burden of hepatitis E in endemic countries, we conducted a hospital-based acute jaundice surveillance study over a two and a half year period in six tertiary hospitals in Bangladesh. The study confirms that HEV infections occur throughout the year, and is a major (34%) cause of acute jaundice in tertiary hospitals in Bangladesh. Three-quarters of the acute hepatitis E cases were male, and HEV infection was higher among patients residing in urban areas than patients in rural areas (41% vs 32%). The overall case fatality rate of acute HEV infections in hospitals was 5%, but was higher among pregnant women (12%). Hepatitis E patients who died were more likely to have co-infection with HAV or HBV than the HEV infected patients who did not die. Fifteen percent of HEV infected mothers had miscarriage/stillbirth. Of the children who were born alive, 19% died, all within one week of birth. Considering the high burden of hepatitis E among hospitalized acute jaundice patients, Bangladesh could take control measures to reduce this risk including improvements in water quality, sanitation and hygiene practices and the introduction of hepatitis E vaccine in high-risk areas. |
COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support (preprint)
Shea K , Borchering RK , Probert WJM , Howerton E , Bogich TL , Li S , van Panhuis WG , Viboud C , Aguás R , Belov A , Bhargava SH , Cavany S , Chang JC , Chen C , Chen J , Chen S , Chen Y , Childs LM , Chow CC , Crooker I , Valle SYD , España G , Fairchild G , Gerkin RC , Germann TC , Gu Q , Guan X , Guo L , Hart GR , Hladish TJ , Hupert N , Janies D , Kerr CC , Klein DJ , Klein E , Lin G , Manore C , Meyers LA , Mittler J , Mu K , Núñez RC , Oidtman R , Pasco R , Piontti APY , Paul R , Pearson CAB , Perdomo DR , Perkins TA , Pierce K , Pillai AN , Rael RC , Rosenfeld K , Ross CW , Spencer JA , Stoltzfus AB , Toh KB , Vattikuti S , Vespignani A , Wang L , White L , Xu P , Yang Y , Yogurtcu ON , Zhang W , Zhao Y , Zou D , Ferrari M , Pannell D , Tildesley M , Seifarth J , Johnson E , Biggerstaff M , Johansson M , Slayton RB , Levander J , Stazer J , Salerno J , Runge MC . medRxiv 2020 Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes. |
Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination (preprint)
Truelove S , Smith CP , Qin M , Mullany LC , Borchering RK , Lessler J , Shea K , Howerton E , Contamin L , Levander J , Salerno J , Hochheiser H , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Shin L , Rainwater-Lovett K , Lemaitre JC , Dent J , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Perez-Saez J , Hill A , Karlen D , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Piontti APY , Vespignani A , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Schlitt J , Corbett P , Telionis PA , Wang L , Peddireddy AS , Hurt B , Chen J , Vullikanti A , Marathe M , Hoops S , Bhattacharya P , Machi D , Chen S , Paul R , Janies D , Thill JC , Galanti M , Yamana T , Pei S , Shaman J , Reich NG , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M , Johansson MA , Runge MC , Viboud C . medRxiv 2021 WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC? The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT? Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE? Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen. |
Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study (preprint)
Borchering RK , Mullany LC , Howerton E , Chinazzi M , Smith CP , Qin M , Reich NG , Contamin L , Levander J , Kerr J , Espino J , Hochheiser H , Lovett K , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Shin L , Lemaitre JC , Hulse JD , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Pastore y Piontti A , Vespignani A , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Hurt B , Chen J , Mortveit H , Wilson A , Marathe M , Hoops S , Bhattacharya P , Machi D , Chen S , Paul R , Janies D , Thill JC , Galanti M , Yamana T , Pei S , Shaman J , Espana G , Cavany S , Moore S , Perkins A , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Shea K , Truelove SA , Runge MC , Viboud C , Lessler J . medRxiv 2022 10 Background SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches. Findings Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts. Conclusions Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license. |
Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and superspreading in Salt Lake County, Utah, March-May 2020
Walker J , Tran T , Lappe B , Gastanaduy P , Paul P , Kracalik IT , Fields VL , Lopez A , Schwartz A , Lewis NM , Tate JE , Kirking HL , Hall AJ , Pevzner E , Khong H , Smithee M , Lowry J , Dunn A , Kiphibane T , Tran CH . PLoS One 2023 18 (6) e0275125 BACKGROUND: Understanding the drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission can inform the development of interventions. We evaluated transmission identified by contact tracing investigations between March-May 2020 in Salt Lake County, Utah, to quantify the impact of this intervention and identify risk factors for transmission. METHODS: RT-PCR positive and untested symptomatic contacts were classified as confirmed and probable secondary case-patients, respectively. We compared the number of case-patients and close contacts generated by different groups, and used logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with transmission. RESULTS: Data were collected on 184 index case-patients and up to six generations of contacts. Of 1,499 close contacts, 374 (25%) were classified as secondary case-patients. Decreased transmission odds were observed for contacts aged <18 years (OR = 0.55 [95% CI: 0.38-0.79]), versus 18-44 years, and for workplace (OR = 0.36 [95% CI: 0.23-0.55]) and social (OR = 0.44 [95% CI: 0.28-0.66]) contacts, versus household contacts. Higher transmission odds were observed for case-patient's spouses than other household contacts (OR = 2.25 [95% CI: 1.52-3.35]). Compared to index case-patients identified in the community, secondary case-patients identified through contract-tracing generated significantly fewer close contacts and secondary case-patients of their own. Transmission was heterogeneous, with 41% of index case-patients generating 81% of directly-linked secondary case-patients. CONCLUSIONS: Given sufficient resources and complementary public health measures, contact tracing can contain known chains of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Transmission is associated with age and exposure setting, and can be highly variable, with a few infections generating a disproportionately high share of onward transmission. |
Genomic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 variants: Circulation of Omicron lineages - United States, January 2022-May 2023
Ma KC , Shirk P , Lambrou AS , Hassell N , Zheng XY , Payne AB , Ali AR , Batra D , Caravas J , Chau R , Cook PW , Howard D , Kovacs NA , Lacek KA , Lee JS , MacCannell DR , Malapati L , Mathew S , Mittal N , Nagilla RR , Parikh R , Paul P , Rambo-Martin BL , Shepard SS , Sheth M , Wentworth DE , Winn A , Hall AJ , Silk BJ , Thornburg N , Kondor R , Scobie HM , Paden CR . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (24) 651-656 CDC has used national genomic surveillance since December 2020 to monitor SARS-CoV-2 variants that have emerged throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, including the Omicron variant. This report summarizes U.S. trends in variant proportions from national genomic surveillance during January 2022-May 2023. During this period, the Omicron variant remained predominant, with various descendant lineages reaching national predominance (>50% prevalence). During the first half of 2022, BA.1.1 reached predominance by the week ending January 8, 2022, followed by BA.2 (March 26), BA.2.12.1 (May 14), and BA.5 (July 2); the predominance of each variant coincided with surges in COVID-19 cases. The latter half of 2022 was characterized by the circulation of sublineages of BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5 (e.g., BQ.1 and BQ.1.1), some of which independently acquired similar spike protein substitutions associated with immune evasion. By the end of January 2023, XBB.1.5 became predominant. As of May 13, 2023, the most common circulating lineages were XBB.1.5 (61.5%), XBB.1.9.1 (10.0%), and XBB.1.16 (9.4%); XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.16.1 (2.4%), containing the K478R substitution, and XBB.2.3 (3.2%), containing the P521S substitution, had the fastest doubling times at that point. Analytic methods for estimating variant proportions have been updated as the availability of sequencing specimens has declined. The continued evolution of Omicron lineages highlights the importance of genomic surveillance to monitor emerging variants and help guide vaccine development and use of therapeutics. |
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