Last data update: Jun 03, 2024. (Total: 46935 publications since 2009)
Records 1-4 (of 4 Records) |
Query Trace: Morris SE [original query] |
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Detection of novel influenza viruses through community and healthcare testing: Implications for surveillance efforts in the United States
Morris SE , Gilmer M , Threlkel R , Brammer L , Budd AP , Iuliano AD , Reed C , Biggerstaff M . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2024 18 (5) e13315 BACKGROUND: Novel influenza viruses pose a potential pandemic risk, and rapid detection of infections in humans is critical to characterizing the virus and facilitating the implementation of public health response measures. METHODS: We use a probabilistic framework to estimate the likelihood that novel influenza virus cases would be detected through testing in different community and healthcare settings (urgent care, emergency department, hospital, and intensive care unit [ICU]) while at low frequencies in the United States. Parameters were informed by data on seasonal influenza virus activity and existing testing practices. RESULTS: In a baseline scenario reflecting the presence of 100 novel virus infections with similar severity to seasonal influenza viruses, the median probability of detecting at least one infection per month was highest in urgent care settings (72%) and when community testing was conducted at random among the general population (77%). However, urgent care testing was over 15 times more efficient (estimated as the number of cases detected per 100,000 tests) due to the larger number of tests required for community testing. In scenarios that assumed increased clinical severity of novel virus infection, median detection probabilities increased across all healthcare settings, particularly in hospitals and ICUs (up to 100%) where testing also became more efficient. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that novel influenza virus circulation is likely to be detected through existing healthcare surveillance, with the most efficient testing setting impacted by the disease severity profile. These analyses can help inform future testing strategies to maximize the likelihood of novel influenza detection. |
The role of asymptomatic infections in influenza transmission: what do we really know
Montgomery MP , Morris SE , Rolfes MA , Kittikraisak W , Samuels AM , Biggerstaff M , Davis WW , Reed C , Olsen SJ . Lancet Infect Dis 2023 Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in influenza transmission was uncertain. However, the importance of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 for onward transmission of COVID-19 has led experts to question whether the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in transmission had been underappreciated. We discuss the existing evidence on the frequency of asymptomatic influenza virus infections, the extent to which they contribute to infection transmission, and remaining knowledge gaps. We propose priority areas for further evaluation, study designs, and case definitions to address existing knowledge gaps. |
Modeling the impacts of antiviral prophylaxis strategies in mitigating seasonal influenza outbreaks in nursing homes
Morris SE , Zipfel CM , Peer K , Madewell ZJ , Brenner S , Garg S , Paul P , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M . Clin Infect Dis 2023 BACKGROUND: Antiviral chemoprophylaxis is recommended for use during influenza outbreaks in nursing homes to prevent transmission and severe disease among non-ill residents. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance recommends prophylaxis be initiated for all non-ill residents once an influenza outbreak is detected and be continued for at least 14 days and until seven days after the last laboratory-confirmed influenza case is identified. However, not all facilities strictly adhere to this guidance and the impact of such partial adherence is not fully understood. METHODS: We developed a stochastic compartmental framework to model influenza transmission within an average-sized U.S. nursing home. We compared the number of symptomatic illnesses and hospitalizations under varying prophylaxis implementation strategies, in addition to different levels of prophylaxis uptake and adherence by residents and healthcare personnel (HCP). RESULTS: Prophylaxis implemented according to current guidance reduced total symptomatic illnesses and hospitalizations among residents by an average of 12% and 36%, respectively, compared with no prophylaxis. We did not find evidence that alternative implementations of prophylaxis were more effective: compared to full adoption of current guidance, partial adoption resulted in increased symptomatic illnesses and/or hospitalizations, and longer or earlier adoption offered no additional improvements. In addition, increasing uptake and adherence among nursing home residents was effective in reducing resident illnesses and hospitalizations, but increasing HCP uptake had minimal indirect impacts for residents. CONCLUSIONS: The greatest benefits of influenza prophylaxis during nursing home outbreaks will likely be achieved through increasing uptake and adherence among residents and following current CDC guidance. |
Evaluating potential impacts of a preferential vaccine recommendation for adults aged 65 and older on United States influenza burden
Morris SE , Grohskopf LA , Ferdinands JM , Reed C , Biggerstaff M . Epidemiology 2023 34 (3) 345-352 BACKGROUND: High-dose, adjuvanted, and recombinant influenza vaccines may offer improved effectiveness among older adults compared to standard-dose, unadjuvanted, inactivated vaccines. However, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) only recently recommended preferential use of these 'higher-dose or adjuvanted' vaccines. One concern was that individuals might delay or decline vaccination if a preferred vaccine is not readily available. METHODS: We mathematically model how a recommendation for preferential use of higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines in adults ≥65 years might impact influenza burden in the United States during exemplar 'high-' and 'low-' severity seasons. We assume higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines are more effective than standard vaccines and that such a recommendation would increase uptake of the former but could cause (i) delays in administration of additional higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines relative to standard vaccines and/or (ii) reductions in overall coverage if individuals only offered standard vaccines forego vaccination. RESULTS: In a best-case scenario, assuming no delay or coverage reduction, a new recommendation could decrease hospitalizations and deaths in adults ≥65 years by 0-4% compared with current uptake. However, intermediate and worst-case scenarios, with assumed delays of 3 or 6 weeks and/or 10 or 20% reductions in coverage, included projections in which hospitalizations and deaths increased by over 7%. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that increased use of higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines could decrease influenza burden in adults ≥65 in the United States provided there is timely and adequate access to these vaccines, and that standard vaccines are administered when they are unavailable. |
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