BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) preventive treatment (TPT) is critical to the end TB strategy. There is limited evidence on its long-term protective effect among people living with HIV (PLWH) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-burden programmatic settings. METHODS: This observational cohort study included PLWH who initiated a single TPT course from March 2017 to September 2018 at 14 ART centres in Andhra Pradesh, India (TB prevalence: 274/100,000). We followed PLWH for 6 years and censored person-time at TB diagnosis, loss to follow-up, or death. We calculated TB incidence rates (IR) and mortality rates (MR) per 100 person-years (PY) stratified by TPT completion and effective ART (viral load<1000 copies/ml). Cox-proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence limits (95% CL) for TB and mortality. FINDINGS: We followed 4,706 PLWH for 23,414 PY. TB was diagnosed in 135 PLWH (2.9%)-122 among 4,454 PLWH who completed TPT (IR: 0.55/100PY, 95% CL: 0.46-0.66), and 13 among 252 PLWH who did not (IR: 1.06/100PY, 95% CL: 0.56-1.81). There were 553 all-cause deaths (11.8%)-MR: 2.2/100PY (95% CL: 2.0-2.4) among those who completed TPT compared to 13.5/100PY (95% CL: 11.1-16.3) among those who did not. TPT, combined with effective ART, was associated with an 87% reduction in TB (aHR: 0.13; 95% CL: 0.05-0.37) and a 94% reduction in all-cause mortality (aHR: 0.06; 95% CL: 0.04-0.10). CONCLUSION: A single TPT course combined with effective ART conferred durable protection against TB and significantly reduced mortality among PLWH in a high-burden TB setting.

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the infectious diseases of public health concern globally. Kenya is ranked 15th among the 22 high TB burden countries worldwide, which collectively contribute to 80% of the world's TB cases. TB Treatment failure is one of the threats to the control of TB. The research aimed at determining affordable predictors of TB treatment failure in a resource limited setting to inform policy in designing public health interventions that are best suited to the country's needs. To determine the predictors of treatment failure among patients with sputum smear positive pulmonary TB attending selected public health facilities in Nairobi Count. Data was abstracted and summarized from both patients and their medical records, focusing on socio-demographic, behavioral, and clinical exposure data. Data was collected from 4 Sub-counties, a total of 21 public health facilities with high case load of pulmonary TB were reached. Utilizing an unmatched case-control design, the study enrolled 81 patients diagnosed with TB treatment failure (cases) and 162 patients who were declared cured after completing their anti-TB treatment (controls. Strengthen contact tracing, screening, and documentation of TB treatment failure cases. Conduct further studies to elucidate the association between HIV and TB treatment failure. The factors significantly associated with treatment failure in this study encompassed prior exposure to first-line anti-Tuberculosis drugs, positive sputum smear at 2 months of treatment, and suboptimal adherence to anti-TB treatment. These findings contribute valuable insights into the identification of simple predictors of TB treatment failure such as utilizing sputum microscopy or gene expert testing at 2 months of treatment to detect individuals at risk and strengthen the implementation of DOT and TB treatment failure contact tracing protocol.

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccine effectiveness can be reduced in older adults and among repeatedly vaccinated groups. Results from year 1 of "PIVOT," a randomized trial among adults aged ≥65 years in Hong Kong, showed that adjuvanted (Adj), high-dose (HD), and recombinant hemagglutinin (rHA) vaccines induced greater antibody responses against vaccine viruses than standard-dose (SD) influenza vaccine. Here, we examine the breadth of A(H3N2)-reactive antibodies induced during the first 2 study years (2017/2018, 2018/2019), and compare participants who received influenza vaccination annually, or not at all, for 5 years preceding enrollment. METHODS: 14-20 PIVOT participants per vaccine and prior vaccination group (0/5 or 5/5 prior years) who provided sera on days 0, 30, and 182 in year 1 and days 0 and 30 in year 2 were assessed. Hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibody titers were measured against 30 viruses spanning 1968 to 2018. RESULTS: In year 1, rHA and Adj but not HD vaccines induced titers ≥40 and titer rises ≥4-fold (seroconversion) against significantly more strains than SD vaccine among participants vaccinated 0/5 prior years. Only rHA and Adj vaccines induced titers ≥40 against post-vaccine strains. Antibody responses were poor among participants vaccinated 5/5 compared with 0/5 prior years and only rHA increased the breadth of seroconversion compared with the SD vaccine in this group. Antibody responses were weaker across groups in year 2. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that Adj and particularly rHA vaccines may improve the breadth of protection against A(H3N2) viruses but may not overcome attenuating effects of repeated vaccination in older adults. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03330132.

BACKGROUND: To generate COVID-19 vaccine safety data in Nigeria, passive reporting was supplemented with cohort event monitoring (CEM), an active surveillance system. We described reactogenicity within 7 days and adverse events up to 3 months after each AstraZeneca or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine dose while assessing the feasibility of implementing CEM in a low- to middle-income country (LMIC) during a mass vaccination campaign. METHODS: Participants were aged ≥18 years with access to mobile phones who received the first dose of an authorized COVID-19 vaccine from participating health facilities in 6 states of Nigeria during September and October 2021. Data collectors interviewed participants via phone on days 0, 3, 7, and thereafter every 7 days for 3 months. The same schedule was restarted if a participant received a second vaccine dose. Proportions of participant-reported adverse events following COVID-19 vaccine receipt were calculated. Investigation and causality assessment were conducted on deaths using the World Health Organization causality guidelines. RESULTS: We enrolled 12,317 participants (AstraZeneca 6990; Moderna 5327); 6167/6990 (88.2 %) AstraZeneca and 4879/5327 (91.6 %) Moderna recipients completed a follow-up interview days 0-7 after the first dose; among them, 2685/6167 (43.5 %) AstraZeneca and 3533/4879 (72.4 %) Moderna recipients reported local reactions and 2456/6167 (39.8 %) AstraZeneca and 2087/4879 (42.8 %) Moderna recipients reported systemic reactions. Overall, 3891/6990 (55.7 %) AstraZeneca and 3978/5327 (72.8 %) Moderna recipients received a second dose of COVID-19 vaccine, among whom 897/3891 (23 %) AstraZeneca and 1979/3978 (49.7 %) Moderna recipients reported local reactions and 727/3891 (18.7 %) AstraZeneca and 1680/3978 (42.2 %) Moderna recipients reported systemic reactions. Among all enrolled, 11 died; there was no evidence to suggest any deaths were vaccine-related. CONCLUSIONS: No unexpected patterns of adverse events were detected, providing additional data on the safety of these COVID-19 vaccines in Nigerian adults. We demonstrated that implementing CEM was feasible and may be valuable for safety monitoring of vaccines introduced in LMICs.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) introduced in childhood national immunization programs lowered vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), but replacement with non-vaccine-types persisted throughout the PCV10/13 follow-up period. We assessed PCV10/13 impact on pneumococcal meningitis incidence globally. METHODS: The number of cases with serotyped pneumococci detected in cerebrospinal fluid and population denominators were obtained from surveillance sites globally. Site-specific meningitis incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing pre-PCV incidence to each year post-PCV10/13 were estimated by age (<5, 5-17 and ≥18 years) using Bayesian multi-level mixed effects Poisson regression, accounting for pre-PCV trends. All-site weighted average IRRs were estimated using linear mixed-effects regression stratified by age, product (PCV10 or PCV13) and prior PCV7 impact (none, moderate, or substantial). Changes in pneumococcal meningitis incidence were estimated overall and for product-specific vaccine-types and non-PCV13-types. RESULTS: Analyses included 10,168 cases <5 y from PCV13 sites and 2849 from PCV10 sites, 3711 and 1549 for 5-17 y and 29,187 and 5653 for ≥18 y from 42 surveillance sites (30 PCV13, 12 PCV10, 2 PCV10/13) in 30 countries, primarily high-income (84%). Six years after PCV10/PCV13 introduction, pneumococcal meningitis declined 48-74% across products and PCV7 impact strata for children <5 y, 35-62% for 5-17 y and 0-36% for ≥18 y. Impact against PCV10-types at PCV10 sites, and PCV13-types at PCV13 sites was high for all age groups (<5 y: 96-100%; 5-17 y: 77-85%; ≥18 y: 73-85%). After switching from PCV7 to PCV10/13, increases in non-PCV13-types were generally low to none for all age groups. CONCLUSION: Pneumococcal meningitis declined in all age groups following PCV10/PCV13 introduction. Plateaus in non-PCV13-type meningitis suggest less replacement than for all IPD. Data from meningitis belt and high-burden settings were limited.

BACKGROUND: Gestational exposure to non-persistent endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) may be associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. While many EDCs affect the endocrine system, their effects on endocrine-related metabolic pathways remain unclear. This study aims to explore the global metabolome changes associated with EDC biomarkers at delivery. METHODS: This study included 75 pregnant individuals who delivered at the University of Cincinnati Hospital from 2014 to 2017. We measured maternal urinary biomarkers of paraben/phenol (12), phthalate (13), and phthalate replacements (4) from the samples collected during the delivery visit. Global serum metabolome profiles were analyzed from maternal blood (n = 72) and newborn (n = 63) cord blood samples collected at delivery. Fifteen of the 29 urinary biomarkers were excluded due to low detection frequency or potential exposures during hospital stay. We assessed metabolome-wide associations between 14 maternal urinary biomarkers and maternal/newborn metabolome profiles. Additionally, performed enrichment analysis to identify potential alterations in metabolic pathways. RESULTS: We observed metabolome-wide associations between maternal urinary concentrations of phthalate metabolites (mono-isobutyl phthalate), phthalate replacements (mono-2-ethyl-5-carboxypentyl terephthalate, mono-2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl terephthalate) and phenols (bisphenol-A, bisphenol-S) and maternal serum metabolome, using q-value < 0.2 as a threshold. Additionally, associations of phthalate metabolites (mono-n-butyl phthalate, monobenzyl phthalate) and phenols (2,5-dichlorophenol, BPA) with the newborn metabolome were noted. Enrichment analyses revealed associations (p-gamma < 0.05) with amino acid, carbohydrate, lipid, glycan, vitamin, and other cofactor metabolism pathways. CONCLUSION: Maternal paraben, phenol, phthalate, and phthalate replacement biomarker concentrations at delivery were associated with maternal and newborn serum global metabolome.

Pyrazinamide (PZA) is a key first-line antituberculosis drug that plays an important role in eradicating persister Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) bacilli and shortening the duration of tuberculosis treatment. However, PZA-resistance is on the rise, particularly among persons with multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis. This nationwide study was conducted to explore the prevalence of mutations conferring PZA resistance, catalogue mutation diversity, investigate the associations of PZA resistance with specific lineages, examine co-resistance to 13 first- and second-line drugs, and evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of sequencing pncA and panD genes for predicting PZA resistance. Whole genome sequencing was performed on 2,207 M. tuberculosis isolates from 25 States and 4 Union Territories of India. The majority of phenotypically PZA-resistant isolates (77%) harbored 171 distinct mutations in pncA; however, a small number of mutations in panD, rpsA and clpC1 were also observed. A set of novel mutations associated PZA resistance was uncovered, along with an additional 143 PZA resistance-conferring mutations in pncA based on application of WHO-endorsed grading rules. PZA resistance was predominately observed in Lineage 2 and eight lineage-specific resistance markers were identified. Mutations distributed across pncA correlate to 94% of PZA resistance and were the predominant drivers of phenotypic resistance; evidence generated herein substantiates sequencing the entire gene and promoter for comprehensive genotypic-based prediction of PZA resistance. This work provides key insights into the scope of PZA-resistance in India, a high drug-resistant TB burden country, and can support the effectiveness of TB prevention and control efforts.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) that are ten-valent (PCV10) and 13-valent (PCV13) became available in 2010. We evaluated their global impact on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence in all ages. METHODS: Serotype-specific IPD cases and population denominators were obtained directly from surveillance sites using PCV10 or PCV13 in their national immunisation programmes and with a primary series uptake of at least 50%. Annual incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated comparing the incidence before any PCV with each year post-PCV10 or post-PCV13 introduction using Bayesian multi-level, mixed-effects Poisson regressions, by site and age group. All site-weighted average IRRs were estimated using linear mixed-effects regression, stratified by product and previous seven-valent PCV (PCV7) effect (none, moderate, or substantial). FINDINGS: Analyses included 32 PCV13 sites (488 758 cases) and 15 PCV10 sites (46 386 cases) in 30 countries, primarily high income (39 sites), using booster dose schedules (41 sites). By 6 years after PCV10 or PCV13 introduction, IPD due to PCV10-type serotypes and PCV10-related serotype 6A declined substantially for both products (age <5 years: 83-99% decline; ≥65 years: 54-96% decline). PCV7-related serotype 19A increases before PCV10 or PCV13 introduction were reversed at PCV13 sites (age <5 years: 61-79% decline relative to before any PCV; age ≥65 years: 7-26% decline) but increased at PCV10 sites (age <5 years: 1·6-2·3-fold; age ≥65 years: 3·6-4·9-fold). Serotype 3 IRRs had no consistent trends for either product or age group. Non-PCV13-type IPD increased similarly for both products (age <5 years: 2·3-3·3-fold; age ≥65 years: 1·7-2·3-fold). Despite different serotype 19A trends, all-serotype IPD declined similarly between products among children younger than 5 years (58-74%); among adults aged 65 years or older, declines were greater at PCV13 (25-29%) than PCV10 (4-14%) sites, but other differences between sites precluded attribution to product. INTERPRETATION: Long-term use of PCV10 or PCV13 reduced IPD substantially in young children and more moderately in older ages. Non-vaccine-type serotypes increased approximately two-fold to three-fold by 6 years after introduction of PCV10 or PCV13. Continuing serotype 19A increases at PCV10 sites and declines at PCV13 sites suggest that PCV13 use would further reduce IPD at PCV10 sites. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as part of the WHO Pneumococcal Vaccines Technical Coordination Project.

BACKGROUND: Widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has reduced vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). We describe the serotype distribution of IPD after extensive use of ten-valent PCV (PCV10; Synflorix, GSK) and 13-valent PCV (PCV13; Prevenar 13, Pfizer) globally. METHODS: IPD data were obtained from surveillance sites participating in the WHO-commissioned Pneumococcal Serotype Replacement and Distribution Estimation (PSERENADE) project that exclusively used PCV10 or PCV13 (hereafter PCV10 and PCV13 sites, respectively) in their national immunisation programmes and had primary series uptake of at least 70%. Serotype distribution was estimated for IPD cases occurring 5 years or more after PCV10 or PCV13 introduction (ie, the mature period when the serotype distribution had stabilised) using multinomial Dirichlet regression, stratified by PCV product and age group (<5 years, 5-17 years, 18-49 years, and ≥50 years). FINDINGS: The analysis included cases occurring primarily between 2015 and 2018 from 42 PCV13 sites (63 362 cases) and 12 PCV10 sites (6806 cases) in 41 countries. Sites were mostly high income (36 [67%] of 54) and used three-dose or four-dose booster schedules (44 [81%]). At PCV10 sites, PCV10 serotypes caused 10·0% (95% CI 6·3-12·9) of IPD cases in children younger than 5 years and 15·5% (13·4-19·3) of cases in adults aged 50 years or older, while PCV13 serotypes caused 52·1% (49·2-65·4) and 45·6% (40·0-50·0), respectively. At PCV13 sites, PCV13 serotypes caused 26·4% (21·3-30·0) of IPD cases in children younger than 5 years and 29·5% (27·5-33·0) of cases in adults aged 50 years or older. The leading serotype at PCV10 sites was 19A in children younger than 5 years (30·6% [95% CI 18·2-43·1]) and adults aged 50 years or older (14·8% [11·9-17·8]). Serotype 3 was a top-ranked serotype, causing about 9% of cases in children younger than 5 years and 14% in adults aged 50 years or older at both PCV10 and PCV13 sites. Across all age and PCV10 or PCV13 strata, the proportion of IPD targeted by higher-valency PCVs beyond PCV13 was 4·1-9·7% for PCV15, 13·5-36·0% for PCV20, 29·9-53·8% for PCV21, 15·6-42·0% for PCV24, and 31·5-50·1% for PCV25. All top-ten ranked non-PCV13 serotypes are included in at least one higher-valency PCV. INTERPRETATION: The proportion of IPD due to serotypes included in PCVs in use was low in mature PCV10 and PCV13 settings. Serotype distribution differed between PCV10 and PCV13 sites and age groups. Higher-valency PCVs target most remaining IPD and are expected to extend impact. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as part of the WHO Pneumococcal Vaccines Technical Coordination Project.

Thirty-four per cent of deaths among Americans aged 1-46 are due to injury, and many of these deaths could be prevented if all hospitals performed as well as the highest-performing hospitals. The Institute of Medicine and the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine have called for learning health systems, with emphasis on clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) as a means of limiting preventable deaths. Reduction in mortality has been demonstrated when evidence-based trauma CPGs are adhered to; however, guidelines are variably updated, redundant, absent, inaccessible, or perceived as irrelevant. Ultimately, these barriers result in poor guideline implementation and preventable patient deaths. This multidisciplinary group of injury providers, clinical guidance developers and end users, public health and health policy experts and implementation scientists propose key areas for consideration in the definition of an ideal future state for clinical guidance development and dissemination. Suggestions include (1): professional societies collaborate rather than compete for guideline development.(2) Design primary clinical research for implementation, and where relevant, with guideline development in mind.(3) Select clinical topics for guideline development through systematic prioritization, with an emphasis on patient-centered outcomes.(4) Develop guideline authorship groups with a focus on transparency, equity of opportunity and diversity of representation.(5) Establish a plan for regular review and updating and provide the date the guideline was last updated for transparency.(6) Integrate options for adapting the guideline to local resources and needs at the time of development.(7) Make guidelines available on a platform that allows for open feedback and utilization tracking.(8) Improve discoverability of guidelines.(9) Optimize user-experience with a focus on inclusion of bedside-ready, mobile-friendly infographics, tables or algorithms when feasible.(10) Use open access and open licenses.(11) Disseminate clinical guidance via comprehensive and equitable communication channels. Guidelines are key to improve patient outcomes. The proposed focus to ensure trauma guidelines are equitably and effectively developed and disseminated globally.

BACKGROUND: Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection that poses a serious risk when transmitted through organ transplantation. We analyzed cases reported to the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network ad hoc Disease Transmission Advisory Committee from 2013 to 2022. METHODS: Donors and/or recipients who had positive Coccidioides immitis/posadasii serology, pathology, and/or culture were included in this study. Cases adjudicated as 'proven' or 'probable' were analyzed for donor infection risk factors, the timing of infection, transmission by organ type, clinical manifestations, and recipient outcomes. Patient and facility identifiers were removed prior to review. RESULTS: During this time period, 73 potential instances of Coccidioides donor disease transmission events were reported. Among them, infection was transmitted from seven deceased donors to eight recipients. All seven deceased donors had prior infection or exposure to regions where coccidioidomycosis is endemic. Of 20 individuals receiving organs from these donors, eight developed infection, resulting in a 40% transmission rate. The median time to diagnosis post-transplant was 39 days. Disseminated disease occurred in six recipients, five of whom died from the infection. Notably, none of the recipients who received prophylactic antifungal treatment died from the infection. CONCLUSION: Despite its rarity, donor-derived Coccidioides infection is a serious concern, particularly due to the high mortality rate in the early post-transplant period. To mitigate these risks, a thorough assessment of donor exposure history, coupled with donor serology and bronchoalveolar lavage cultures, can effectively guide post-transplant antifungal prophylaxis. Prompt reporting is crucial to prevent Coccidioides infections among other recipients.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae), Haemophilus influenzae (H. influenzae), and Neisseria meningitidis (N. meningitidis) are leading causes of childhood bacterial meningitis and preventable by vaccines. The aim of this hospital-based sentinel surveillance is to describe the epidemiological characteristics of pneumococcal meningitis, including disease burden, and to provide baseline data on pneumococcal serotype distribution to support decision making for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction in Vietnam. METHODS: Surveillance for probable bacterial meningitis in children 1-59 months of age is conducted in three tertiary level pediatric hospitals: one in Hanoi and two in Ho Chi Minh City. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens were collected via lumbar puncture from children with suspected meningitis. Specimens were transferred immediately to the laboratory department of the respective hospital for cytology, biochemistry, and microbiology testing, including culture. PCR testing was conducted on CSF specimens for bacterial detection (S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae, and N. meningitidis) and pneumococcal serotyping. RESULTS: During 2015-2018, a total of 1,803 children with probable bacterial meningitis were detected; 1,780 had CSF specimens available for testing. Of 245 laboratory-confirmed positive cases, the majority were caused by S. pneumoniae (229,93.5%). Of those with S. pneumoniae detected, over 70% were caused by serotypes included in currently available PCV products; serotypes 6 A/6B (27.1%), 14 (19.7%), and 23 F (16.2%) were the most common serotypes. Children with laboratory-confirmed pneumococcal meningitis were more likely to live in Hanoi (p < 0.0001) and children 12-23 months of age were at greater odds (OR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.11, 2.43; p = 0.006) of having confirmed pneumococcal meningitis compared to children < 12 months of age when compared to those without laboratory-confirmed bacterial meningitis. Additionally, children with confirmed pneumococcal meningitis were more likely to exhibit signs and symptoms consistent with clinical meningitis compared to negative laboratory-confirmed meningitis cases (p < 0.0001) and had a greater odds of death (OR = 6.18, 95% CI: 2.98, 12.86; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Pneumococcal meningitis contributes to a large burden of bacterial meningitis in Vietnamese children. A large proportion are caused by serotypes covered by PCVs currently available. Introduction of PCV into the routine immunization program could reduce the burden of pneumococcal meningitis in Viet Nam.

BACKGROUND: Mumbai is one of the most densely populated areas in the world and is a major contributor to the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic in India. A test and treat approach for TB infection (TBI) amongst household contacts (HHC) is part of the national policy for TB preventive treatment (TPT). However, in practice, the use of interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) tests for infection are limited, and prevalence of TBI in Mumbai is not known. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among HHCs exposed to persons with microbiologically-confirmed, drug-susceptible pulmonary TB that were notified for antituberculosis treatment in Mumbai, India during September-December, 2021. Community-based field workers made home visits and offered IGRA (QuantiFERON-TB(®) Gold In-Tube Plus) tests to HHC aged 5 years and older. After ruling out active TB disease, HHC with IGRA-positive test results were referred for TPT. All HHC were monitored for at least 24 months for progression to active TB disease. RESULTS: Among 502 HHCs tested, 273 (54%) had IGRA-positive results. A total of 254 (93%) were classified as TBI and were eligible for TPT, of which 215 (85%) initiated TPT, and 194 (90%) completed TPT successfully. There was substantial variation in rates of TBI per household. In 32% of households, all HHC (100%) were IGRA positive and in 64% of households >50% of HHC were infected. In all, 22 HHCs (4%; 22/558) were diagnosed with TB disease; of these, five HHC were diagnosed during follow up, of which three were IGRA positive and had no evidence of disease at initial screening but chose not to initiate TPT. CONCLUSION: A test and treat strategy for HHC resulted in the detection of a substantial proportion of TBI and secondary TB cases. Home-based IGRA testing led to high participation rates, clinical evaluations, TPT initiation, and early diagnoses of additional secondary cases. A community-focused, test and treat approach was feasible in this population and could be considered for broader implementation.

INTRODUCTION: An error grid compares measured versus reference glucose concentrations to assign clinical risk values to observed errors. Widely used error grids for blood glucose monitors (BGMs) have limited value because they do not also reflect clinical accuracy of continuous glucose monitors (CGMs). METHODS: Diabetes Technology Society (DTS) convened 89 international experts in glucose monitoring to (1) smooth the borders of the Surveillance Error Grid (SEG) zones and create a user-friendly tool-the DTS Error Grid; (2) define five risk zones of clinical point accuracy (A-E) to be identical for BGMs and CGMs; (3) determine a relationship between DTS Error Grid percent in Zone A and mean absolute relative difference (MARD) from analyzing 22 BGM and nine CGM accuracy studies; and (4) create trend risk categories (1-5) for CGM trend accuracy. RESULTS: The DTS Error Grid for point accuracy contains five risk zones (A-E) with straight-line borders that can be applied to both BGM and CGM accuracy data. In a data set combining point accuracy data from 18 BGMs, 2.6% of total data pairs equally moved from Zones A to B and vice versa (SEG compared with DTS Error Grid). For every 1% increase in percent data in Zone A, the MARD decreased by approximately 0.33%. We also created a DTS Trend Accuracy Matrix with five trend risk categories (1-5) for CGM-reported trend indicators compared with reference trends calculated from reference glucose. CONCLUSION: The DTS Error Grid combines contemporary clinician input regarding clinical point accuracy for BGMs and CGMs. The DTS Trend Accuracy Matrix assesses accuracy of CGM trend indicators.

The early period of the COVID-19 pandemic limited access to HIV services for children and adolescents living with HIV (C/ALHIV). To determine progress in providing care and treatment services, we describe viral load coverage (VLC) and suppression (VLS) (<1000 copies/ mL) rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in 12 United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)-supported countries. Data for children (0-9 years) and adolescents (10-19 years) on VLC and VLS were analyzed for 12 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries between 2019 (pre-COVID-19) and 2020 (during COVID-19). We report the number of viral load (VL) tests, and percent change in VLC and VLS for patients on ART. For 12 countries, 181,192 children had a VL test during the pre-COVID-19 period compared with 177,683 December 2020 during COVID-19. VLC decreased from 68.8% to 68.3% overall. However, 9 countries experienced an increase ranging from a 0.7%-point increase for Tanzania and Zimbabwe to a 15.3%-point increase for Nigeria. VLS increased for all countries from 71.2% to 77.7%. For adolescents the number with a VL test increased from 377,342 to 402,792. VLC decreased from 77.4% to 77.1%. However, 7 countries experienced an increase ranging from 1.8% for Mozambique to 13.8% for Cameroon. VLS increased for all countries from 76.8% to 83.8%. This analysis shows variation in HIV VLC across 12 SSA countries. VLS consistently improved across all countries demonstrating resilience of countries during 2020. Countries should continue to improve clinical outcomes from C/ALHIV despite service disruptions that may occur during pandemic response.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to environmental chemicals such as phthalates, phenols, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during pregnancy can increase the risk of adverse newborn outcomes. We explored the associations between maternal exposure to select environmental chemicals and DNA methylation in cord blood mononuclear cells (CBMC) and placental tissue (maternal and fetal sides) to identify potential mechanisms underlying these associations. METHOD: This study included 75 pregnant individuals who planned to give birth at the University of Cincinnati Hospital between 2014 and 2017. Maternal urine samples during the delivery visit were collected and analyzed for 37 biomarkers of phenols (12), phthalates (13), phthalate replacements (4), and PAHs (8). Cord blood and placenta tissue (maternal and fetal sides) were also collected to measure the DNA methylation intensities using the Infinium HumanMethylation450K BeadChip. We used linear regression, adjusting for potential confounders, to assess CpG-specific methylation changes in CBMC (n = 54) and placenta [fetal (n = 67) and maternal (n = 68) sides] associated with gestational chemical exposures (29 of 37 biomarkers measured in this study). To account for multiple testing, we used a false discovery rate q-values < 0.05 and presented results by limiting results with a genomic inflation factor of 1±0.5. Additionally, gene set enrichment analysis was conducted using the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomics pathways. RESULTS: Among the 29 chemical biomarkers assessed for differential methylation, maternal concentrations of PAH metabolites (1-hydroxynaphthalene, 2-hydroxyfluorene, 4-hydroxyphenanthrene, 1-hydroxypyrene), monocarboxyisononyl phthalate, mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate, and bisphenol A were associated with altered methylation in placenta (maternal or fetal side). Among exposure biomarkers associated with epigenetic changes, 1-hydroxynaphthalene, and mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate were consistently associated with differential CpG methylation in the placenta. Gene enrichment analysis indicated that maternal 1-hydroxynaphthalene was associated with lipid metabolism and cellular processes of the placenta. Additionally, mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate was associated with organismal systems and genetic information processing of the placenta. CONCLUSION: Among the 29 chemical biomarkers assessed during delivery, 1-hydroxynaphthalene and mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate were associated with DNA methylation in the placenta. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s43682-024-00027-7.

BACKGROUND: Unintentional injuries disproportionately impact American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations. Developing effective and culturally tailored data collection and intervention programs requires an understanding of past prevention efforts in AI/AN communities, but limited peer-reviewed literature on the topic is available. This scoping review aims to summarize efforts that have been published in the Primary Care Provider newsletter, a source of gray literature available through the Indian Health Service. METHODS: The research team obtained all injury related articles in the Provider newsletter and excluded those that did not describe an unintentional injury prevention effort. Included articles were organized chronologically and by topic, and outcomes were described in a data abstraction form. RESULTS: A total of 247 articles from the Provider newsletter were screened, and 68 were included in this review. The most number of articles were published in 2007 (n = 15). Many focused not specifically on one tribal community but on the AI/AN community as a whole (n = 27), while others reported that certain tribes were the focus of study but did not identify tribes by name (n = 24). The following is a list of 14 tribal communities explicitly mentioned: Omaha, Cherokee, Ute, Yakama, Chippewa, Apache, Ho-Chunk, The Crow Tribe, Tohono O'odham Nation, Fort Mojave Tribe, Chemehuevi Tribe, The Rosebud Tribe, Navajo, and The Pueblo of Jemez. Published unintentional injury prevention efforts have covered the following 7 topics in AI/AN communities: falls, motor vehicle crashes, poisonings, improving data, burns, children, and other. CONCLUSION: This scoping review makes available and searchable information on injury prevention work conducted in and for AI/AN communities that is not currently found in the peer-reviewed literature.

OBJECTIVE: Kenya ART guidelines recommend three sessions of enhanced adherence counselling (EAC) following detectable viral load (VL). The objective of this study was to assess completion of EAC sessions and factors associated with viral re-suppression amongst adolescents and young persons (AYPs) with persistent viremia in Western Kenya. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of routinely collected data abstracted from VL registers was done. AYP with persistent viremia (consecutive VL ≥ 1,000 copies/ml) between October 2017 to September 2019 were followed for 12 months; those with >1 follow-up VL results were analyzed. EAC was satisfactory if ≥3 sessions attended, barriers identified and addressed. Morisky scores 0 and ≥1 indicated optimal and sub-optimal adherence respectively. Logistic regression models were used to assess predictors of viral load suppression (VLS). RESULTS: Of 124 AYPs with persistent viremia, 118(95.2%) had documented follow up VL results and 119(96.0%) completed three EAC sessions. Overall, 55(47%) clients re-suppressed during the study period. AYPs who had satisfactory EAC sessions had higher odds of achieving VLS (odds ratio [OR] = 3.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-8.1). Similarly, AYPs with an optimal adherence had eight times (OR = 8.1, 95%CI: 3.5-18.5) higher odds of achieving VLS, and those who were suppressed at 6 months post ART initiation had higher odds of achieving VLS at 12-months (OR = 2.5, 95%CI:1.1-5.8). CONCLUSION: Satisfactory EAC sessions and optimal ART adherence was strongly associated with viral re-suppression among AYPs with persistent viremia. Continued support to EAC intervention is critical to improve treatment outcome among AYP living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for older adults but repeated vaccination with standard-dose influenza vaccine has been linked to reduced immunogenicity and effectiveness, especially against A(H3N2) viruses. METHODS: Community-dwelling Hong Kong adults aged 65-82 years were randomly allocated to receive 2017-2018 standard-dose quadrivalent, MF59-adjuvanted trivalent, high-dose trivalent, and recombinant-HA quadrivalent vaccination. Antibody response to unchanged A(H3N2) vaccine antigen was compared among participants with and without self-reported prior year (2016-2017) standard-dose vaccination. RESULTS: Mean fold rise (MFR) in antibody titers from day 0 to day 30 by hemagglutination inhibition and virus microneutralization assays were lower among 2017-2018 standard-dose and enhanced vaccine recipients with (range, 1.7-3.0) versus without (range, 4.3-14.3) prior 2016-2017 vaccination. MFR was significantly reduced by about one-half to four-fifths for previously vaccinated recipients of standard-dose and all 3 enhanced vaccines (β range, .21-.48). Among prior-year vaccinated older adults, enhanced vaccines induced higher 1.43 to 2.39-fold geometric mean titers and 1.28 to 1.74-fold MFR versus standard-dose vaccine by microneutralization assay. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of unchanged A(H3N2) vaccine strain, prior-year vaccination was associated with reduced antibody response among both standard-dose and enhanced influenza vaccine recipients. Enhanced vaccines improved antibody response among older adults with prior-year standard-dose vaccination.

INTRODUCTION: We assessed trends in HIV and syphilis prevalence, HIV incidence, related risk factors, and preventive behaviors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Vietnam from 2015 to 2020. METHODS: Data originated from the HIV Sentinel Surveillance Plus system, which sampled MSM at venues and hotspots in seven of Vietnam's 63 provinces in 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2020 (N = 1100-1445 per year; ∼150-300 per province per year). RESULTS: HIV prevalence estimates increased from 6.6% (95% CI 4.5-9.6) in 2015 to 13.8% (95% CI 10.5-18.2, p = .001 for trend) in 2020 overall, and separately in An Giang, Can Tho, Hai Phong, and Khanh Hoa provinces but not in Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, or Kien Giang. Syphilis prevalence increased from 2.7% (95% CI 1.4-5.1) in 2015 to 12.6% (95% CI 8.7-18.0) in 2020 overall (p < .001 for trend), and separately in An Giang, Can Tho, and Hai Phong provinces but not in Ho Chi Minh City or Kien Giang. We calculated time-at-risk from first anal sex to first HIV-positive or last HIV-negative test to estimate HIV incidence. Estimated HIV incidence suggested increasing rates of seroconversion from 1.36 per 100 person-years experienced by participants in 2015 to 2.61 per 100 person-years among participants in 2020 (hazard ratio per year 1.13, 95% CI 1.08-1.18, p < .001). There was a statistically significant increase in HIV testing, STI testing, and receipt of free condoms over the period (p < .05 for trend), and a statistically significant decrease in amphetamine use (p = .043 for trend). CONCLUSIONS: Despite prevention efforts and improvements in some risk indicators, consecutive cross-sectional sampling results provide evidence of increasing incidence of HIV and syphilis among MSM in Vietnam, especially outside the major cities. Aggressive HIV prevention and treatment services can be expanded while conducting deeper investigations into the causes of these increases.

IMPORTANCE: Despite modest reductions in the incidence of hospital-onset Clostridioides difficile infection (HO-CDI), CDI remains a leading cause of health care-associated infection. As no single intervention has proven highly effective on its own, a multifaceted approach to controlling HO-CDI is needed. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Strategies to Prevent Clostridioides difficile Infection in Acute Care Facilities Framework (hereafter, the Framework) in reducing HO-CDI incidence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This quality improvement study was performed within the Duke Infection Control Outreach Network from July 1, 2019, through March 31, 2022. In all, 20 hospitals in the network participated in an implementation study of the Framework recommendations, and 26 hospitals did not participate and served as controls. The Framework has 39 discrete intervention categories organized into 5 focal areas for CDI prevention: (1) isolation and contact precautions, (2) CDI confirmation, (3) environmental cleaning, (4) infrastructure development, and (5) antimicrobial stewardship engagement. EXPOSURES: Monthly teleconferences supporting Framework implementation for the participating hospitals. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcomes were HO-CDI incidence trends at participating hospitals compared with controls and postintervention HO-CDI incidence at intervention sites compared with rates during the 24 months before the intervention. RESULTS: The study sample included a total of 2184 HO-CDI cases and 7 269 429 patient-days. In the intervention cohort of 20 participating hospitals, there were 1403 HO-CDI cases and 3 513 755 patient-days, with a median (IQR) HO-CDI incidence of 2.8 (2.0-4.3) cases per 10 000 patient-days. The first analysis included an additional 3 755 674 patient-days and 781 HO-CDI cases among the 26 controls, with a median (IQR) HO-CDI incidence of 1.1 (0.7-2.7) case per 10 000 patient-days. The second analysis included an additional 2 538 874 patient-days and 1751 HO-CDI cases, with a median (IQR) HO-CDI incidence of 5.9 (2.7-8.9) cases per 10 000 patient-days, from participating hospitals 24 months before the intervention. In the first analysis, intervention sites had a steeper decline in HO-CDI incidence over time relative to controls (yearly incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.79 [95% CI, 0.67-0.94]; P = .01), but the decline was not temporally associated with study participation. In the second analysis, HO-CDI incidence was declining in participating hospitals before the intervention, and the rate of decline did not change during the intervention. The degree to which hospitals implemented the Framework was associated with steeper declines in HO-CDI incidence (yearly IRR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.90-0.99]; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this quality improvement study of a regional hospital network, implementation of the Framework was not temporally associated with declining HO-CDI incidence. Further study of the effectiveness of multimodal prevention measures for controlling HO-CDI is warranted.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to characterize the epidemiology of human seasonal coronaviruses (HCoVs) in southern Malawi. METHODS: We tested for HCoVs 229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1 using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on upper respiratory specimens from asymptomatic controls and individuals of all ages recruited through severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) surveillance at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, and a prospective influenza-like illness (ILI) observational study between 2011 and 2017. We modeled the probability of having a positive PCR for each HCoV using negative binomial models, and calculated pathogen-attributable fractions (PAFs). RESULTS: Overall, 8.8% (539/6107) of specimens were positive for ≥1 HCoV. OC43 was the most frequently detected HCoV (3.1% [191/6107]). NL63 was more frequently detected in ILI patients (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 9.60 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.25-28.30]), while 229E (aIRR, 8.99 [95% CI, 1.81-44.70]) was more frequent in SARI patients than asymptomatic controls. In adults, 229E and OC43 were associated with SARI (PAF, 86.5% and 89.4%, respectively), while NL63 was associated with ILI (PAF, 85.1%). The prevalence of HCoVs was similar between children with SARI and controls. All HCoVs had bimodal peaks but distinct seasonality. CONCLUSIONS: OC43 was the most prevalent HCoV in acute respiratory illness of all ages. Individual HCoVs had distinct seasonality that differed from temperate settings.

BACKGROUND: Neuroinvasive infection with Francisella tularensis, the causative agent of tularemia, is rare. Establishing clinical suspicion is challenging if risk factors or clinical features classically associated with tularemia are absent. Tularemia is treatable with antibiotics; however, there are limited data to inform management of potentially fatal neuroinvasive infection. METHODS: We collected epidemiologic and clinical data on 2 recent US cases of neuroinvasive F. tularensis infection, and performed a literature review of cases of neuroinvasive F. tularensis infection published after 1950. RESULTS: One patient presented with focal neurologic deficits and brain lesions; broad-range molecular testing on resected brain tissue detected F. tularensis. The other patient presented with meningeal signs; tularemia was suspected based on animal exposure, and F. tularensis grew in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture. Both patients received combination antibiotic therapy and recovered from infection. Among 16 published cases, tularemia was clinically suspected in 4 cases. CSF often displayed lymphocytic pleocytosis. Among cases with available data, CSF culture was positive in 13 of 16 cases, and F. tularensis antibodies were detected in 11 of 11 cases. Treatment typically included an aminoglycoside combined with either a tetracycline or a fluoroquinolone. Outcomes were generally favorable. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should consider neuroinvasive F. tularensis infection in patients with meningitis and signs suggestive of tularemia or compatible exposures, lymphocyte-predominant CSF, unrevealing standard microbiologic workup, or lack of response to empiric bacterial meningitis treatment. Molecular testing, culture, and serologic testing can reveal the diagnosis. Favorable outcomes can be achieved with directed antibiotic treatment.

India has the largest number of multidrug-resistant TB | (MDR-TB) cases, defined as Mycobacterium tuberculosis | resistant to at least isoniazid (INH) and rifampicin (RIF).1 | However, less than half of all persons with MDR-TB in | India successfully complete treatment.1 Although initial | end-of-treatment outcomes offer a standardised time point | to assess the effect of treatment, these tend to | underestimate the overall burden of unfavourable longterm outcomes among persons treated for TB.2,3 The longterm outcomes of persons diagnosed with MDR-TB in | India, including the proportion with recurrent TB disease | or mortality, are unknown. This analysis was conducted | under programmatic conditions in a high-burden setting, | with no regular check-ups after treatment. The results can | be used to show the burden of recurrent illness and death | following treatment, and can be used as a benchmark to | measure improvement.

BACKGROUND: We described changes in 2016─2020 carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) incidence rates in 7 US sites that conduct population-based CRE surveillance. METHODS: An incident CRE case was defined as the first isolation of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella spp., or Enterobacter spp. resistant to ≥1 carbapenem from a sterile site or urine in a surveillance area resident in a 30-day period. We reviewed medical records and classified cases as hospital-onset (HO), healthcare-associated community-onset (HACO), or community-associated (CA) CRE based on healthcare exposures and location of disease onset. We calculated incidence rates using census data. We used Poisson mixed effects regression models to perform 2016─2020 trend analyses, adjusting for sex, race/ethnicity, and age. We compared adjusted incidence rates between 2016 and subsequent years using incidence rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Of 4996 CRE cases, 62% were HACO, 21% CA, and 14% HO. The crude CRE incidence rate per 100 000 was 7.51 in 2016 and 6.08 in 2020 and was highest for HACO, followed by CA and HO. From 2016 to 2020, the adjusted overall CRE incidence rate decreased by 24% (RR, 0.76 [95% CI, .70-.83]). Significant decreases in incidence rates in 2020 were seen for HACO (RR, 0.75 [95% CI, .67-.84]) and CA (0.75 [.61-.92]) but not for HO CRE. CONCLUSIONS: Adjusted CRE incidence rates declined from 2016 to 2020, but changes over time varied by epidemiologic class. Continued surveillance and effective control strategies are needed to prevent CRE in all settings.

Objectives. To describe RDS in neonatal deaths at the CHAMPS-Kenya site between 2017 and 2021. Methods. We included 165 neonatal deaths whose their Causes of death (COD) were determined by a panel of experts using data from post-mortem conducted through minimally invasive tissue specimen testing, clinical records, and verbal autopsy. Results. Twenty-six percent (43/165) of neonatal deaths were attributable to RDS. Most cases occurred in low birthweight and preterm neonates. From these cases, less than half of the hospitalizations were diagnosed with RDS before death, and essential diagnostic tests were not performed in most cases. Most cases received suboptimal levels of supplemental oxygen, and critical interventions like surfactant replacement therapy and mechanical ventilation were not adequately utilized when available. Conclusion. The study highlights the urgent need for improved diagnosis and management of RDS, emphasizing the importance of increasing clinical suspicion and enhancing training in its clinical management to reduce mortality rates.

Measles is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable disease that requires high population immunity for transmission to be interrupted. All six World Health Organization regions have committed to eliminating measles; however, no region has achieved and sustained measles elimination. This report describes measles elimination progress during 2000-2022. During 2000-2019, estimated coverage worldwide with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) increased from 72% to 86%, then declined to 81% in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, representing the lowest coverage since 2008. In 2022, first-dose MCV coverage increased to 83%. Only one half (72) of 144 countries reporting measles cases achieved the measles surveillance indicator target of two or more discarded cases per 100,000 population in 2022. During 2021-2022, estimated measles cases increased 18%, from 7,802,000 to 9,232,300, and the number of countries experiencing large or disruptive outbreaks increased from 22 to 37. Estimated measles deaths increased 43% during 2021-2022, from 95,000 to 136,200. Nonetheless, an estimated 57 million measles deaths were averted by vaccination during 2000-2022. In 2022, measles vaccination coverage and global surveillance showed some recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic setbacks; however, coverage declined in low-income countries, and globally, years of suboptimal immunization coverage left millions of children unprotected. Urgent reversal of coverage setbacks experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic can be accomplished by renewing efforts to vaccinate all children with 2 MCV doses and strengthening surveillance, thereby preventing outbreaks and accelerating progress toward measles elimination.

This study aimed to estimate dietary sodium and potassium consumption among Jamaicans and evaluate associations with sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Jamaica Health and Lifestyle Survey 2016-2017. Participants were noninstitutionalized Jamaicans aged ≥15 years. Trained staff collected sociodemographic and health data via interviewer-administered questionnaires and spot urine samples. The Pan American Health Organization formula was used to estimate 24-hour urine sodium and potassium excretion. High sodium level was defined as ≥2000 mg/day, and low potassium levels as <3510 mg/day (World Health Organization criteria). Associations between these outcomes and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were explored using multivariable ANOVA models using log-transformed 24-hour urine sodium and potassium as outcome variables. Analyses included 1009 participants (368 males, 641 females; mean age 48.5 years). The mean sodium excretion was 3582 mg/day (males 3943 mg/day, females 3245 mg/day, P < .001). The mean potassium excretion was 2052 mg/day (males, 2210 mg/day; females, 1904 mg/day; P = .001). The prevalence of high sodium consumption was 66.6% (males 72.8%, females 60.7%, P < .001) and that of low potassium intake was 88.8% (85.1% males, 92.3% females, P < .001). Sodium consumption was inversely associated with older age, higher education, and low glomerular filtration rate but was directly associated with being male, current smoking, and obesity. Overall, males had higher sodium consumption than women, with the effect being larger among hypertensive men. Women with hypertension had lower sodium consumption than nonhypertensive women; however, hypertensive men had higher sodium consumption than nonhypertensive men. Potassium consumption was higher among men, persons with obesity, and those with high total cholesterol but was lower among men with "more than high school" education compared to men with "less than high school" education. We conclude that most Jamaican adults have diets high in sodium and low in potassium. In this study, sodium consumption was directly associated with male sex, obesity, and current smoking but was inversely associated with older age and higher education. High potassium consumption was associated with obesity and high cholesterol levels. These associations should be further explored in longitudinal studies and population-based strategies should be developed to address these cardiovascular risk factors.

Defective interfering (DI) genomes restrict viral replication and induce type-I interferon. Since DI genomes have been proposed as vaccine adjuvants or therapeutic antiviral agents, it is important to understand their generation, delineate their mechanism of action, develop robust production capacities, assess their safety and in vivo longevity and determine their long-term effects. To address this, we generated a recombinant (r) canine distemper virus (CDV) from an entirely synthetic molecular clone designed using the genomic sequence from a clinical isolate obtained from a free-ranging raccoon with distemper. rCDV was serially passaged in vitro to identify DI genomes that naturally arise during rCDV replication. Defective genomes were identified by Sanger and next-generation sequencing techniques and predominant genomes were synthetically generated and cloned into T7-driven plasmids. Fully encapsidated DI particles (DIPs) were then generated using a rationally attenuated rCDV as a producer virus to drive DI genome replication. We demonstrate these DIPs interfere with rCDV replication in a dose-dependent manner in vitro. Finally, we show sustained replication of a fluorescent DIP in experimentally infected ferrets over a period of 14 days. Most importantly, DIPs were isolated from the lymphoid tissues which are a major site of CDV replication. Our established pipeline for detection, generation and assaying DIPs is transferable to highly pathogenic paramyxoviruses and will allow qualitative and quantitative assessment of the therapeutic effects of DIP administration on disease outcome.Importance Defective interfering (DI) genomes have long been considered inconvenient artifacts that suppressed viral replication in vitro. However, advances in sequencing technologies have led to DI genomes being identified in clinical samples, implicating them in disease progression and outcome. It has been suggested that DI genomes could be harnessed therapeutically. Negative strand RNA virus research has provided a rich pool of natural DI genomes over many years and they are probably the best understood in vitro. Here, we demonstrate identification, synthesis, production and experimental inoculation of novel CDV DI genomes in highly susceptible ferrets. These results provide important evidence that rationally designed and packaged DI genomes can survive the course of a wild-type virus infection.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information&amp; Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. &amp; Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia &amp; Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, &amp; Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44