BACKGROUND: The introduction of universal test and treat (UTT) strategy has demonstrated a reduction in attrition in some low-resource settings. UTT was introduced in Ethiopia in 2016. However, there is a paucity of information regarding the magnitude and predictors of attrition from HIV treatment in Ethiopia. This study aims to assess the incidence and predictors of attrition from HIV treatment among adults living with HIV (PLHIV) in high-caseload facilities following the implementation of universal test and treat strategy in Ethiopia from March 2019 to June 2020. METHODS: A prospective cohort of individuals in HIV care from 39 high-caseload facilities in Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa regions of Ethiopia was conducted for 12 months. Participants were adults aged 15 year and older who were first testers recruited for 3 months from March to June 2019. Subsequent follow-up was for 12 months, with data collected on sociodemographic and clinical conditions at baseline, 6 and 12 months and attrition at 6 and 12 months. We defined attrition as discontinuation from follow-up care due to loss to follow-up, dropout or death. Data were collected using Open Data Kit at field level and aggregated centrally. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was employed to assess survival probability to the time of attrition from treatment. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to measure association of baseline predictor variables with the proportion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients retained in ART during the follow up period. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate for attrition from HIV treatment among the study participants during 12 months of follow-up was 5.02 cases per 1000 person-weeks [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.44-5.68 per 1000 person-weeks]. Study participants from health facilities in Oromia and Addis Ababa/Dire Dawa had 68% and 51% higher risk of attrition from HIV treatment compared with participants from the Amhara region, respectively [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.22-2.32 and AHR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.05-2.17, respectively]. Participants who did not have a child had a 44% higher risk of attrition compared with those who had a child (AHR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.12-1.85). Individuals who did not own mobile phone had a 37% higher risk of attrition than those who owned a mobile phone (AHR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.02-1.83). Ambulatory/bedridden functional status at the time of diagnosis had a 44% higher risk of attrition compared with participants with a working functional status (AHR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.08-1.92) at any time during the follow-up period. CONCLUSION: The overall incidence of attrition among people living with HIV enrolled into HIV treatment was not as high as what was reported by other studies. Independent predictors of attrition were administrative regions in Ethiopia where health facilities are located, not having a child, not owning a mobile phone and being ambulatory/bedridden functional status at the time of diagnosis. Concerted efforts should be taken to reduce the magnitude of attrition from HIV treatment and address its drivers.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most devastating public health emergencies of international concern to have occurred in the past century. To ensure a safe, scalable, and sustainable response, it is imperative to understand the burden of disease, epidemiological trends, and responses to activities that have already been implemented. We aimed to analyze how COVID-19 tests, cases, and deaths varied by time and region in the general population and healthcare workers (HCWs) in Ethiopia. METHODS: COVID-19 data were captured between October 01, 2021, and September 30, 2022, in 64 systematically selected health facilities throughout Ethiopia. The number of health facilities included in the study was proportionally allocated to the regional states of Ethiopia. Data were captured by standardized tools and formats. Analysis of COVID-19 testing performed, cases detected, and deaths registered by region and time was carried out. RESULTS: We analyzed 215,024 individuals' data that were captured through COVID-19 surveillance in Ethiopia. Of the 215,024 total tests, 18,964 COVID-19 cases (8.8%, 95% CI: 8.7%- 9.0%) were identified and 534 (2.8%, 95% CI: 2.6%- 3.1%) were deceased. The positivity rate ranged from 1% in the Afar region to 15% in the Sidama region. Eight (1.2%, 95% CI: 0.4%- 2.0%) HCWs died out of 664 infected HCWs, of which 81.5% were from Addis Ababa. Three waves of outbreaks were detected during the analysis period, with the highest positivity rate of 35% during the Omicron period and the highest rate of ICU beds and mechanical ventilators (38%) occupied by COVID-19 patients during the Delta period. CONCLUSIONS: The temporal and regional variations in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Ethiopia underscore the need for concerted efforts to address the disparities in the COVID-19 surveillance and response system. These lessons should be critically considered during the integration of the COVID-19 surveillance system into the routine surveillance system.

Antimicrobial resistance in healthcare-associated bacterial pathogens and the infections they cause are major public health threats affecting nearly all healthcare facilities. Antimicrobial-resistant bacterial infections can occur when colonizing pathogenic bacteria that normally make up a small fraction of the human microbiota increase in number in response to clinical perturbations. Such infections are especially likely when pathogens are resistant to the collateral effects of antimicrobial agents that disrupt the human microbiome, resulting in loss of colonization resistance, a key host defense. Pathogen reduction is an emerging strategy to prevent transmission of, and infection with, antimicrobial-resistant healthcare-associated pathogens. We describe the basis for pathogen reduction as an overall prevention strategy, the evidence for its effectiveness, and the role of the human microbiome in colonization resistance that also reduces the risk for infection once colonized. In addition, we explore ideal attributes of current and future pathogen-reducing approaches.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the immune response kinetics to SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination is important in nursing home (NH) residents, a high-risk population. METHODS: An observational longitudinal evaluation of 37 consenting vaccinated NH residents with/without SARS-CoV-2 infection from October 2020 to July 2022 was conducted to characterize the immune response to spike protein due to infection and/or mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Antibodies (IgG) to SARS-CoV-2 full-length spike, nucleocapsid, and receptor binding domain protein antigens were measured, and surrogate virus neutralization capacity was assessed using Meso Scale Discovery immunoassays. The participant's spike exposure status varied depending on the acquisition of infection or receipt of a vaccine dose. Longitudinal linear mixed effects modeling was used to describe trajectories based on the participant's last infection or vaccination; the primary series mRNA COVID-19 vaccine was considered two spike exposures. Mean antibody titer values from participants who developed an infection post receipt of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine were compared with those who did not. In a subset of participants (n = 15), memory B cell (MBC) S-specific IgG (%S IgG) responses were assessed using an ELISPOT assay. RESULTS: The median age of the 37 participants at enrollment was 70.5 years; 30 (81%) had prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 76% received Pfizer-BioNTech and 24% Moderna homologous vaccines. After an observed augmented effect with each spike exposure, a decline in the immune response, including %S IgG MBCs, was observed over time; the percent decline decreased with increasing spike exposures. Participants who developed an infection at least two weeks post-receipt of a vaccine were observed to have lower humoral antibody levels than those who did not develop an infection post-receipt. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that understanding the durability of immune responses in this vulnerable NH population can help inform public health policy regarding the timing of booster vaccinations as new variants display immune escape.

Electronic viral load (VL) Test Ordering and Result Reporting System (ETORRS) was introduced to create data exchange between the existing VL database and the electronic medical record (EMR) system, with the aim of reducing laboratory test results turnaround time (TAT), improving data quality, and supporting timely clinical response for patients with high VL. This use case is an illustrative example of initiating and adopting the principles of health information exchange for a priority health program.

Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Certain areas, particularly in Africa, pose persistent challenges to elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. Efficiently identifying communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0-5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment to 29% by month 36. At baseline, correlation between seroprevalence and Ct infection was stronger among children 0-5 years old (ρ = 0.77) than children 6-9 years old (ρ = 0.48), and stronger than the correlation between clinical trachoma and Ct infection (0-5y ρ = 0.56; 6-9y ρ = 0.40). Seroprevalence was the strongest concurrent predictor of infection prevalence at month 36 among children 0-5 years old (cross-validated R2 = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58-0.85), though predictive performance declined substantially with increasing temporal lag between predictor and outcome measurements. Geospatial variables, a spatial Gaussian process, and stacked ensemble machine learning did not meaningfully improve predictions. Serological markers among children 0-5 years old may be an objective, programmatic tool for identifying communities with high levels of active ocular Ct infections, but accurate, future prediction in the context of changing transmission remains an open challenge.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Trachoma is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. District-level estimates of clinical disease among children 1-9 years old are currently used to guide control programs and assess elimination. However, clinical trachoma is a subjective indicator. Serological markers present an objective, scalable alternative that could be measured in integrated platforms. In a hyperendemic region, community-level seroprevalence aligned more closely with concurrent infection prevalence than clinical trachoma. The correlation between seroprevalence and infection prevalence was stronger among 0–5-year-olds compared to 6–9-year-olds and was consistent over a three-year period of increasing transmission. Serosurveillance among children 0-5 years old may be a promising monitoring strategy to identify communities with the highest burdens of ocular chlamydial infection.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Clinical TrialNCT02754583Funding StatementWe would like to thank the WUHA study participants and field team without whom this research would not be possible. This work was supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R03 AI147128 to BFA) and the National Eye Institute (U10 EY023939 to JDK). This work was also made possible in part by an Unrestricted Grant from Research to Prevent Blindness. We would also like to thank Abbott for its donation of the m2000 RealTime molecular diagnostics system and consumables.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:Approval for the study was obtained from the University of California, San Francisco Institutional Review Board (14-14004).All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesDe-identified data and code to replicate this work is available on Github. https://github.com/ctedijanto/swift-spatial-prediction

Importance: There are limited data describing SARS-CoV-2-specific immune responses and their durability following infection and vaccination in nursing home residents. Objective(s): To evaluate the quantitative titers and durability of binding antibodies detected after SARSCoV-2 infection and subsequent COVID-19 vaccination. Design(s): A prospective longitudinal evaluation included nine visits over 150 days; visits included questionnaire administration, blood collection for serology, and paired anterior nasal specimen collection for testing by BinaxNOWTM COVID-19 Ag Card (BinaxNOW), reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and viral culture. Setting(s): A nursing home during and after a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Participant(s): 11 consenting SARS-CoV-2-positive nursing home residents. Main Outcomes and Measures: SARS-CoV-2 testing (BinaxNOWTM, RT-PCR, viral culture); quantitative titers of binding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies post-infection and post-vaccination (beginning after the first dose of the primary series). Result(s): Of 10 participants with post-infection serology results, 9 (90%) had detectable Pan-Ig, IgG, and IgA antibodies and 8 (80%) had detectable IgM antibodies. At first antibody detection post-infection, two-thirds (6/9, 67%) of participants were RT-PCR-positive but none were culture positive. Ten participants received vaccination; all had detectable Pan-Ig, IgG, and IgA antibodies through their final observation <=90 days post-first dose. Post-vaccination geometric means of IgG titers were 10-200-fold higher than post-infection. Conclusions and Relevance: Nursing home residents in this cohort mounted robust immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 post-infection and post-vaccination. The augmented antibody responses post-vaccination are potential indicators of enhanced protection that vaccination may confer on previously infected nursing home residents. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

Early during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) leveraged an existing surveillance system infrastructure to monitor COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States. Given the time needed to report individual-level (also called line-level) COVID-19 case and death data containing detailed information from individual case reports, CDC designed and implemented a new aggregate case surveillance system to inform emergency response decisions more efficiently, with timelier indicators of emerging areas of concern. We describe the processes implemented by CDC to operationalize this novel, multifaceted aggregate surveillance system for collecting COVID-19 case and death data to track the spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus at national, state, and county levels. We also review the processes established to acquire, process, and validate the aggregate number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States at the county and jurisdiction levels during the pandemic. These processes include time-saving tools and strategies implemented to collect and validate authoritative COVID-19 case and death data from jurisdictions, such as web scraping to automate data collection and algorithms to identify and correct data anomalies. This topical review highlights the need to prepare for future emergencies, such as novel disease outbreaks, by having an event-agnostic aggregate surveillance system infrastructure in place to supplement line-level case reporting for near-real-time situational awareness and timely data.

BACKGROUND: The functional survival time of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), which varies across different field contexts, is critical for the successful prevention of malaria transmission. However, there is limited data on LLIN durability in field settings in Ethiopia. METHODS: A three-year longitudinal study was conducted to monitor attrition, physical integrity, and bio-efficacy and residual chemical concentration of LLINs in four regions in Ethiopia. World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines were used to determine sample size, measure physical integrity, and calculate attrition rates, and functional survival time. Yearly bio-efficacy testing was done on randomly selected LLINs. An excel tool developed by vector works project was used to calculate the median functional survival time of the LLINs. Predictors of functional survival were identified by fitting binary and multivariate cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: A total of 3,396 LLINs were included in the analysis. A total of 3,396 LLINs were included in the analysis. By the end of 36 months, the proportion of LLINs functionally surviving was 12.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.5, 15.6], the rates of attrition due to physical damage and repurposing were 48.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 45.0, 52.6] and 13.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 11.6, 14.6], respectively. The estimated median functional survival time was 19 months (95%CI 17, 21). Factors associated with shorter functional survival time include being in a low malaria transmission setting [Adjusted Hazards Ratio (AHR) (95%CI) 1.77 (1.22, 2.55)], rural locations [AHR (95%CI) 1.83 (1.17, 2.84)], and in a room where cooking occurs [AHR (95%CI) 1.28 (1.05, 1.55)]. Bioassay tests revealed that 95.3% (95%CI 86.4, 98.5) of the LLINs met the WHO criteria of bio-efficacy after 24 months of distribution. CONCLUSION: The LLIN survival time was shorter than the expected three years due to high attrition rates and rapid loss of physical integrity. National malaria programmes may consider, procuring more durable LLINs, educating communities on how to prevent damage of LLINs, and revising the current three-year LLIN distribution schedule to ensure sufficient protection is provided by LLINs against malaria transmission. While this paper contributes to the understanding of determinants impacting functional survival, further research is needed to understand factors for the rapid attrition rates and loss of physical integrity of LLINs in field settings.

Case investigation and contact tracing (CI/CT) is a critical part of the public health response to COVID-19. Individuals' experiences with CI/CT for COVID-19 varied based on geographic location, changes in knowledge and guidelines, access to testing and vaccination, as well as demographic characteristics including age, race, ethnicity, income, and political ideology. In this paper, we explore the experiences and behaviors of adults with positive SARS-CoV-2 test results, or who were exposed to a person with COVID-19, to understand their knowledge, motivations, and facilitators and barriers to their actions. We conducted focus groups and one-on-one interviews with 94 cases and 90 contacts from across the United States. We found that participants were concerned about infecting or exposing others, which motivated them to isolate or quarantine, notify contacts, and get tested. Although most cases and contacts were not contacted by CI/CT professionals, those who were reported a positive experience and received helpful information. Many cases and contacts reported seeking information from family, friends, health care providers, as well as television news and Internet sources. Although participants reported similar perspectives and experiences across demographic characteristics, some highlighted inequities in receiving COVID-19 information and resources.

Since 2013, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has offered the Public Health Emergency Management Fellowship to health professionals from around the world. The goal of this program is to build an international workforce to establish public health emergency management programs and operations centers in participating countries. In March 2021, all 141 graduates of the fellowship program were invited to complete a web survey designed to examine their job roles and functions, assess their contributions to their country's COVID-19 response, and identify needs for technical assistance to strengthen national preparedness and response systems. Of 141 fellows, 89 successfully completed the survey. Findings showed that fellowship graduates served key roles in COVID-19 response in many countries, used skills they gained from the fellowship, and desired continuing engagement between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and fellowship alumni to strengthen the community of practice for international public health emergency management.

BACKGROUND: Routine monitoring of anti-malarial drugs is recommended for early detection of drug resistance and to inform national malaria treatment guidelines. In Ethiopia, the national treatment guidelines employ a species-specific approach. Artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and chloroquine (CQ) are the first-line schizonticidal treatments for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively. The National Malaria Control and Elimination Programme in Ethiopia is considering dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA/PPQ) as an alternative regimen for P. falciparum and P. vivax. METHODS: The study assessed the clinical and parasitological efficacy of AL, CQ, and DHA/PPQ in four arms. Patients over 6 months and less than 18 years of age with uncomplicated malaria mono-infection were recruited and allocated to AL against P. falciparum and CQ against P. vivax. Patients 18 years or older with uncomplicated malaria mono-infection were recruited and randomized to AL or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA/PPQ) against P. falciparum and CQ or DHA/PPQ for P. vivax. Patients were followed up for 28 (for CQ and AL) or 42 days (for DHA/PPQ) according to the WHO recommendations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-corrected and uncorrected estimates were analysed by Kaplan Meier survival analysis and per protocol methods. RESULTS: A total of 379 patients were enroled in four arms (n = 106, AL-P. falciparum; n = 75, DHA/PPQ- P. falciparum; n = 142, CQ-P. vivax; n = 56, DHA/PPQ-P. vivax). High PCR-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) rates were observed at the primary end points of 28 days for AL and CQ and 42 days for DHA/PPQ. ACPR rates were 100% in AL-Pf (95% CI: 96-100), 98% in CQ-P. vivax (95% CI: 95-100) at 28 days, and 100% in the DHA/PPQ arms for both P. falciparum and P. vivax at 42 days. For secondary endpoints, by day three 99% of AL-P. falciparum patients (n = 101) cleared parasites and 100% were afebrile. For all other arms, 100% of patients cleared parasites and were afebrile by day three. No serious adverse events were reported. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated high therapeutic efficacy for the anti-malarial drugs currently used by the malaria control programme in Ethiopia and provides information on the efficacy of DHA/PPQ for the treatment of P. falciparum and P. vivax as an alternative option.

There are limited data describing SARS-CoV-2-specific immune responses and their durability following infection and vaccination in nursing home residents. We conducted a prospective longitudinal evaluation of 11 consenting SARS-CoV-2-positive nursing home residents to evaluate the quantitative titers and durability of binding antibodies detected after SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent COVID-19 vaccination. The evaluation included nine visits over 150 days from October 25, 2020, through April 1, 2021. Visits included questionnaire administration, blood collection for serology, and paired anterior nasal specimen collection for testing by BinaxNOW™ COVID-19 Ag Card (BinaxNOW), reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and viral culture. We evaluated quantitative titers of binding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies post-infection and post-vaccination (beginning after the first dose of the primary series). The median age among participants was 74 years; one participant was immunocompromised. Of 10 participants with post-infection serology results, 9 (90%) had detectable Pan-Ig, IgG, and IgA antibodies, and 8 (80%) had detectable IgM antibodies. At first antibody detection post-infection, two-thirds (6/9, 67%) of participants were RT-PCR-positive, but none were culture- positive. Ten participants received vaccination; all had detectable Pan-Ig, IgG, and IgA antibodies through their final observation ≤90 days post-first dose. Post-vaccination geometric means of IgG titers were 10-200-fold higher than post-infection. Nursing home residents in this cohort mounted robust immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 post-infection and post-vaccination. The augmented antibody responses post-vaccination are potential indicators of enhanced protection that vaccination may confer on previously infected nursing home residents.

Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Efficient identification of communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia to assess this hypothesis. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0-5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment, in the context of recent mass drug administration (MDA), to 29% by month 36, following three years without MDA. At baseline, correlation between seroprevalence and Ct infection was stronger among children 0-5 years old (ρ = 0.77) than children 6-9 years old (ρ = 0.48), and stronger than the correlation between active trachoma and Ct infection (0-5y ρ = 0.56; 6-9y ρ = 0.40). Seroprevalence was the strongest concurrent predictor of infection prevalence at month 36 among children 0-5 years old (cross-validated R2 = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58-0.85), though predictive performance declined substantially with increasing temporal lag between predictor and outcome measurements. Geospatial variables, a spatial Gaussian process, and stacked ensemble machine learning did not meaningfully improve predictions. Serological markers among children 0-5 years old may be an objective tool for identifying communities with high levels of ocular Ct infections, but accurate, future prediction in the context of changing transmission remains an open challenge.

BACKGROUND: Reactive and proactive case detection measures are widely implemented by national malaria elimination programs globally. Ethiopia decided to include Reactive Case Detection (RCD) and targeted Mass Drug Administration (tMDA) approaches as part of their elimination strategy along with rigorous evaluation. The purpose of this study is to compare the impact of RCD and tMDA on malaria elimination over the 2-year study period, by looking at the annual parasite incidence before and after the intervention. METHODS: The study will be conducted in the East Hararghe zone of Ethiopia. Malaria transmission in the area is low to moderate. This study will deploy a community-based, three-arm, cluster-randomized control trial implemented over 2 years. Forty-eight clusters (16 clusters per arm) will be selected based on the annual number of confirmed malaria cases seen in the cluster. All clusters will receive the current standard of care in terms of malaria elimination interventions provided by the national malaria control program. In addition, following the identification of malaria parasite infection, individuals who reside within a 100-m radius of the index case will receive a diagnosis for malaria and treatment if positive in the RCD arm or presumptive treatment in the tMDA arm. The primary effectiveness endpoint will be measured at baseline and endline for each intervention arm and compared to the control arm using a difference in difference approach. DISCUSSION: This randomized controlled trial will provide evidence of the impact of the proposed intervention approaches for malaria elimination. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04241705 . Registration date: January 27, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are widely used for malaria diagnosis of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. Although RDTs are a reliable and practical diagnostic tool, the sensitivity of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2)-based RDTs can be reduced if pfhrp2 or pfhrp3 (pfhrp2/3) gene deletions exist in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite population. This study evaluated dried blood spot (DBS) samples collected from a national household survey to investigate the presence of pfhrp2/3 deletions and the performance of the RDT used in the cross-sectional survey in a low transmission setting. METHODS: The 2015 Ethiopia Malaria Indicator Survey tested household members by RDT and collected DBS samples. DBS (n = 2648) from three regions in northern Ethiopia were tested by multiplex bead-based antigen detection assay after completion of the survey. The multiplex assay detected pan-Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), pAldolase, and HRP2 antigens in samples. Samples suspected for pfhrp2/3 gene deletions (pLDH and/or pAldolase positive but low or absent HRP2) were further investigated by molecular assays for gene deletions. Antigen results were also compared to each individual's RDT results. Dose-response logistic regression models were fit to estimate RDT level of detection (LOD) antigen concentrations at which 50, 75, 90, and 95% of the RDTs returned a positive result during this survey. RESULTS: Out of 2,648 samples assayed, 29 were positive for pLDH or pAldolase antigens but low or absent for HRP2 signal, and 15 of these samples (51.7%) were successfully genotyped for pfhrp2/3. Of these 15 P. falciparum infections, eight showed single deletions in pfhrp3, one showed a single pfhrp2 deletion, and six were pfhrp2/3 double-deletions. Six pfhrp2 deletions were observed in Tigray and one in Amhara. Twenty-five were positive for HRP2 by the survey RDT while the more sensitive bead assay detected 30 HRP2-positive samples. A lower concentration of HRP2 antigen generated a positive test result by RDT compared to pLDH (95% LOD: 16.9 ng/mL vs. 319.2 ng/mL, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence of dual pfhrp2/3 gene deletions in the Tigray and Amhara regions of Ethiopia in 2015. As the prevalence of malaria was very low (< 2%), it is difficult to make strong conclusions on RDT performance, but these results challenge the utility of biomarkers in household surveys in very low transmission settings.

BACKGROUND: WHO promotes the SAFE strategy for the elimination of trachoma as a public health programme, which promotes surgery for trichiasis (ie, the S component), antibiotics to clear the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma (the A component), facial cleanliness to prevent transmission of secretions (the F component), and environmental improvements to provide water for washing and sanitation facilities (the E component). However, little evidence is available from randomised trials to support the efficacy of interventions targeting the F and E components of the strategy. We aimed to determine whether an integrated water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) intervention prevents the transmission of trachoma. METHODS: The WASH Upgrades for Health in Amhara (WUHA) was a two-arm, parallel-group, cluster-randomised trial in 40 rural communities in Wag Hemra Zone (Amhara Region, Ethiopia) that had been treated with 7 years of annual mass azithromycin distributions. The randomisation unit was the school catchment area. All households within a 1·5 km radius of a potential water point within the catchment area (as determined by the investigators) were eligible for inclusion. Clusters were randomly assigned (at a 1:1 ratio) to receive a WASH intervention either immediately (intervention) or delayed until the conclusion of the trial (control), in the absence of concurrent antibiotic distributions. Given the nature of the intervention, participants and field workers could not be masked, but laboratory personnel were masked to treatment allocation. The WASH intervention consisted of both hygiene infrastructure improvements (namely, construction of a community water point) and hygiene promotion by government, school, and community leaders, which were implemented at the household, school, and community levels. Hygiene promotion focused on two simple messages: to use soap and water to wash your or your child's face, and to always use a latrine for defecation. The primary outcome was the cluster-level prevalence of ocular chlamydia, measured annually using conjunctival swabs in a random sample of children aged 0-5 years from each cluster at 12, 24, and 36 month timepoints. Analyses were done in an intention-to-treat manner. This trial is ongoing and is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02754583. FINDINGS: Between Nov 9, 2015, and March 5, 2019, 40 of 44 clusters assessed for eligibility were enrolled and randomly allocated to the trial groups (20 clusters each, with 7636 people from 1751 households in the intervention group and 9821 people from 2211 households in the control group at baseline). At baseline, ocular chlamydia prevalence among children aged 0-5 years was 11% (95% CI 6 to 16) in the WASH group and 11% (5 to 18) in the control group. At month 36, ocular chlamydia prevalence had increased in both groups, to 32% (24 to 41) in the WASH group and 31% (21 to 41) in the control group (risk difference across three annual monitoring visits, after adjustment for prevalence at baseline: 3·7 percentage points; 95% CI -4·9 to 12·4; p=0·40). No adverse events were reported in either group. INTERPRETATION: An integrated WASH intervention addressing the F and E components of the SAFE strategy did not prevent an increase in prevalence of ocular chlamydia following cessation of antibiotics in an area with hyperendemic trachoma. The impact of WASH in the presence of annual mass azithromycin distributions is currently being studied in a follow-up trial of the 40 study clusters. Continued antibiotic distributions will probably be important in areas with persistent trachoma. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health-National Eye Institute. TRANSLATION: For the Amharic translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, despite improvements in coverage and access, utilization of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) remains a challenge. Different household-level factors have been identified as associated with LLIN use. However, the contribution of LLIN physical integrity to their utilization is not well investigated and documented. This study aimed to assess the association between the physical integrity of LLINs and their use. METHODS: This study employed a nested case-control design using secondary data from the Ethiopian LLIN durability monitoring study conducted from May 2015 to June 2018. LLINs not used the night before the survey were identified as cases, while those used the previous night were categorized as controls. The physical integrity of LLINs was classified as no holes, good, acceptable, and torn using the proportionate hole index (pHI). A Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) model was used to assess and quantify the association between LLIN physical integrity and use. The model specifications included binomial probabilistic distribution, logit link, exchangeable correlation matrix structure, and robust standard errors. The factors included in the model were selected first by fitting binary regression, and then by including all factors that showed statistical significance at P-value less than 0.25 and conceptually relevant variables into the multivariate regression model. RESULTS: A total of 5277 observations fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Out of these 1767 observations were cases while the remaining 3510 were controls. LLINs that were in torn physical condition had higher odds (AOR [95% CI] = 1.76 [1.41, 2.19]) of not being used compared to LLINs with no holes. Other factors that showed significant association included the age of the LLIN, sleeping place type, washing status of LLINs, perceptions towards net care and repair, LLIN to people ratio, economic status, and study site. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: LLINs that have some level of physical damage have a relatively higher likelihood of not being used. Community members need to be educated about proper care and prevention of LLIN damage to delay the development of holes as long as possible and use available LLINs regularly.

Multiplex bead assays (MBAs) for serologic testing have become more prevalent in public health surveys, but few studies have assessed their test performance. As part of a trachoma study conducted in a rural part of Ethiopia in 2016, dried blood spots (DBS) were collected from a random sample of 393 children aged 0 to 9 years, with at least two separate 6-mm DBS collected on a filter card. Samples eluted from DBS were processed using an MBA on the Luminex platform for antibodies against 13 antigens of nine infectious organisms: Chlamydia trachomatis, Vibrio cholera, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Cryptosporidium parvum, Entamoeba histolytica, Camplyobacter jejuni, Salmonella typhimurium Group B, Salmonella enteritidis Group D, and Giardia lamblia. Two separate DBS from each child were processed. The first DBS was run a single time, with the MBA set to read 100 beads per well. The second DBS was run twice, first at 100 beads per well and then at 50 beads per well. Results were expressed as the median fluorescence intensity minus background (MFI-BG), and classified as seropositive or seronegative according to external standards. Agreement between the three runs was high, with intraclass correlation coefficients of > 0.85 for the two Salmonella antibody responses and > 0.95 for the other 11 antibody responses. Agreement was also high for the dichotomous seropositivity indicators, with Cohen's kappa statistics exceeding 0.87 for each antibody assay. These results suggest that serologic testing on the Luminex platform had strong test performance characteristics for analyzing antibodies using DBS.

BACKGROUND: Sixty percent of the Ethiopia population is at risk of malaria, with the highest prevalence reported in Gambella (6%) and Benishangul-Gumuz (3%) regions. Within these regions are large agricultural developments with high numbers of seasonal migrant workers. The migrant workers are believed to be at increased risk for malaria infection due to their poor living conditions and outdoor activities, but there is little information on their specific behaviours and health risks. This study was conducted to address this gap. METHODS: Quantitative observations were conducted from September to December 2017 in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region. The nightly routines of mobile migrant workers were observed every month for 4 consecutive months. The study team collected quantitative data including nocturnal behavioural observations of worker living conditions, malaria prevention efforts, and work activities and surveys of worker representatives. Qualitative data was collected from migrant workers, farm managers and local health providers using focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews. RESULTS: Migrant workers arrived in the study area during the peak malaria transmission season and the workers in focus groups reported repeated cases of malaria during their stay on the farms. Overall, less than a quarter of the migrant workers were sleeping under a mosquito net by midnight in all 4 observation months. Some work activities also took place outdoors at night. The study additionally found a lack of access to malaria prevention and treatment at the farms and challenges in utilizing local public health facilities. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need to better address malaria prevention and treatment needs among migrant workers in Ethiopia through outreach from existing healthcare infrastructure and within the farms themselves. This will help prevent malaria transmission both within this population and prevent transmission of malaria back to home communities in lower burden areas in Ethiopia.

Stress is a common belief among breast cancer patients and the public to explain variation in breast cancer incidence. Epidemiological studies interrogating the relationship between stress and cancer have reported mixed results. The impact of the topic and the lack of consensus has sparked this review of the literature to investigate gaps in knowledge and identify areas of research. We first present a brief summary of the biopsychosocial model generally used to conduct research on stress. We then divide the overview of the literature into areas of research focus. These include the role of distressing life events in breast cancer incidence, the role of adverse childhood events in later breast cancer incidence, the importance of race and socioeconomic status (SES) as social determinants of breast cancer incidence, and the specific role of chronic stress in relation to breast cancer. For each topic, we discuss the potential of stress as a risk factor and possible intervention strategies that could reduce the effects of stress. We then identify further research questions to be probed to fill the gaps in knowledge. We conclude with a discussion of future research directions for stress research as it relates to breast cancer incidence.

BACKGROUND: Canine rabies is endemic in Ethiopia and presents a significant burden for both animal and human health. We investigate barriers to dog vaccination in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. These results can be utilized to improve and target future rabies control efforts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: During May of 2017, dog owners were surveyed during a free canine rabies vaccination programs that utilized both door-to-door (DtD) and central point (CP) vaccination methods. Surveys collected information on preferences for rabies vaccine delivery and were administered in Amharic. A total of 1057 surveys were completed. Of those surveyed, 62.4 % indicated that their dogs had been vaccinated against rabies within the last year. Commonly reported barriers to vaccination were a lack of awareness that dogs required rabies vaccines (18.1 %) and lack of knowledge about where to find vaccine (15.0 %). The median price owners were willing to pay for vaccination was 25 birr ($0.91 USD) and the median distance willing to travel was 1.0 km; however, 48.9 % of those surveyed during DtD were unwilling to travel at all. We identified 3 classes of respondents who were grouped due to their responses by latent class analysis: 'the Unaware', 'the Vaccinators', and 'the Multiple Barriers'. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although many respondents were willing to pay for rabies vaccine (94.0 %); the preferred cost (median) was less than the actual cost of providing the vaccine. This supports the need for reduced-cost or free vaccine to achieve and sustain the 70 % vaccine coverage target threshold for canine rabies elimination. Additionally, a significant portion (41.5 %) of those surveyed indicated that they were unwilling to travel in order to have their dog vaccinated. The latent class analysis provides useful guidance on how to reach target vaccination. Owners from 'the Unaware' group made up 18.1 % of respondents and their high rate of allowing their dogs to roam identifies them as a prime target for canine health and behavior education. 'The Multiple Barriers' owners reported lower degrees of dog roaming and were substantially more likely to be found by DtD campaigns, possibly because they have limited ability/interest in handling their dogs. These results demonstrate the importance of incorporating DtD vaccination as well as subsidies to maximize vaccine coverage in Addis Ababa.

The Trachoma Control Program in Amhara region, Ethiopia, scaled up the surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement (SAFE) strategy in all districts starting in 2007. Despite these efforts, many districts still require additional years of SAFE. In 2017, four districts were selected for the assessment of antibody responses against Chlamydia trachomatis antigens and C. trachomatis infection to better understand transmission. Districts with differing endemicity were chosen, whereby one had a previous trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence of > 30% (Andabet), one had a prevalence between 10% and 29.9% (Dera), one had a prevalence between 5% and 10% (Woreta town), and one had a previous TF prevalence of < 5% (Alefa) and had not received antibiotic intervention for 2 years. Survey teams assessed trachoma clinical signs and took conjunctival swabs and dried blood spots (DBS) to measure infection and antibody responses. Trachomatous inflammation-follicular prevalence among children aged 1-9 years was 37.0% (95% CI: 31.1-43.3) for Andabet, 14.7% (95% CI: 10.0-20.5) for Dera, and < 5% for Woreta town and Alefa. Chlamydia trachomatis infection was only detected in Andabet (11.3%). Within these districts, 2,195 children provided DBS. The prevalence of antibody responses to the antigen Pgp3 was 36.9% (95% CI: 29.0-45.6%) for Andabet, 11.3% (95% CI: 5.9-20.6%) for Dera, and < 5% for Woreta town and Alefa. Seroconversion rate for Pgp3 in Andabet was 0.094 (95% CI: 0.069-0.128) events per year. In Andabet district, where SAFE implementation has occurred for 11 years, the antibody data support the finding of persistently high levels of trachoma transmission.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has set a goal for malaria elimination by 2030. Low parasite density infections may go undetected by conventional diagnostic methods (microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests) and their contribution to malaria transmission varies by transmission settings. This study quantified the burden of subpatent infections from samples collected from three regions of northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: Sub-samples of dried blood spots from the Ethiopian Malaria Indicator Survey 2015 (EMIS-2015) were tested and compared using microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR) to determine the prevalence of subpatent infection. Paired seroprevalence results previously reported along with gender, age, and elevation of residence were explored as risk factors for Plasmodium infection. RESULTS: Of the 2608 samples collected, the highest positive rate for Plasmodium infection was found with nPCR 3.3% (95% CI 2.7-4.1) compared with RDT 2.8% (95% CI 2.2-3.5) and microscopy 1.2% (95% CI 0.8-1.7). Of the nPCR positive cases, Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 3.1% (95% CI 2.5-3.8), Plasmodium vivax 0.4% (95% CI 0.2-0.7), mixed P. falciparum and P. vivax 0.1% (95% CI 0.0-0.4), and mixed P. falciparum and Plasmodium malariae 0.1% (95% CI 0.0-0.3). nPCR detected an additional 30 samples that had not been detected by conventional methods. The majority of the nPCR positive cases (61% (53/87)) were from the Benishangul-Gumuz Region. Malaria seropositivity had significant association with nPCR positivity [adjusted OR 10.0 (95% CI 3.2-29.4), P < 0.001]. CONCLUSION: Using nPCR the detection rate of malaria parasites increased by nearly threefold over rates based on microscopy in samples collected during a national cross-sectional survey in 2015 in Ethiopia. Such subpatent infections might contribute to malaria transmission. In addition to strengthening routine surveillance systems, malaria programmes may need to consider low-density, subpatent infections in order to accelerate malaria elimination efforts.

BACKGROUND: Planning and monitoring vaccine introduction and effectiveness relies on strong vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) surveillance. In low and middle-income countries (LMICs) especially, cost is a commonly reported barrier to VPD surveillance system maintenance and performance; however, it is rarely calculated or assessed. This review describes and compares studies on the availability of cost information for VPD surveillance systems in LMICs to facilitate the design of future cost studies of VPD surveillance. METHODS: PubMed, Web of Science, and EconLit were used to identify peer-reviewed articles and Google was searched for relevant grey literature. Studies selected described characteristics and results of VPD surveillance systems cost studies performed in LMICs. Studies were categorized according to the type of VPD surveillance system, study aim, the annual cost of the system, and per capita costs. RESULTS: Eleven studies were identified that assessed the cost of VPD surveillance systems. The studies assessed systems from six low-income countries, two low-middle-income countries, and three middle-income countries. The majority of the studies (n=7) were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa and fifteen distinct VPD surveillance systems were assessed across the studies. Most studies aimed to estimate incremental costs of additional surveillance components and presented VPD surveillance system costs as mean annual costs per resource category, health structure level, and by VPD surveillance activity. Staff time/personnel cost represents the largest cost driver, ranging from 21% to 61% of total VPD surveillance system costs across nine studies identifying a cost driver. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides a starting point to guide LMICs to invest and advocate for more robust VPD surveillance systems. Critical gaps were identified including limited information on the cost of laboratory surveillance, challenges with costing shared resources, and missing data on capital costs. Appropriate guidance is needed to guide LMICs conducting studies on VPD surveillance system costs.

Preventing zoonotic diseases requires coordinated actions by government authorities responsible for human and animal health. Constructing the frameworks needed to foster intersectoral collaboration can be approached in many ways. We highlight 3 examples of approaches to implement zoonotic disease prevention and control programs. The first, rabies control in Ethiopia, was implemented using an umbrella approach: a comprehensive program designed for accelerated impact. The second, a monkeypox program in Democratic Republic of the Congo, was implemented in a stepwise manner, whereby incremental improvements and activities were incorporated into the program. The third approach, a pathogen discovery program, applied in the country of Georgia, was designed to characterize and understand the ecology, epidemiology, and pathogenesis of a new zoonotic pathogen. No one approach is superior, but various factors should be taken into account during design, planning, and implementation.

Background Ethiopia has the second largest human population in Africa and the largest livestock population on the continent. About 80% of Ethiopians are dependent on agriculture and have direct contact with livestock or other domestic animals. As a result, the country is vulnerable to the spread of zoonotic diseases. As the first step of the country's engagement in the Global Health Security Agenda, a zoonotic disease prioritization workshop was held to identify significant zoonotic diseases of mutual concern for animal and human health agencies. Methods A semi-quantitative tool developed by the US CDC was used for prioritization of zoonotic diseases. Workshop participants representing human, animal, and environmental health ministries were selected as core decision-making participants. Over 300 articles describing the zoonotic diseases considered at the workshop were reviewed for disease specific information on prevalence, morbidity, mortality, and DALYs for Ethiopia or the East Africa region. Committee members individually ranked the importance of each criterion to generate a final group weight for each criterion. Results Forty-three zoonotic diseases were evaluated. Criteria selected in order of importance were: 1)severity of disease in humans, 2)proportion of human disease attributed to animal exposure, 3)burden of animal disease, 4)availability of interventions, and 5)existing inter-sectoral collaboration. Based on the results from the decision tree analysis and subsequent discussion, participants identified the following five priority zoonotic diseases: rabies, anthrax, brucellosis, leptospirosis, and echinococcosis. Discussion Multi-sectoral collaborations strengthen disease surveillance system development in humans and animals, enhance laboratory capacity, and support implementation of prevention and control strategies. To facilitate this, the creation of a One Health-focused Zoonotic Disease Unit is recommended. Enhancement of public health and veterinary laboratories, joint outbreak and surveillance activities, and intersectoral linkages created to tackle the prioritized zoonotic diseases will undoubtedly prepare the country to effectively address newly emerging zoonotic diseases.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of mortality among children is still very huge though its trend has started declining following the improvements in the living standard. It presents serious challenges to the well-being of children in many African countries. Today, Sub-Saharan Africa alone accounts for about 50% of global child mortality. The overall objective of this study was to determine the magnitude and distribution of causes of death among children aged 5 to 14 year olds in the population of Kersa HDSS using verbal autopsy method for the period 2008 to 2013. METHODS: Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System(Kersa HDSS) was established in September 2007. The center consists of 10 rural and 2 urban kebeles which were selected randomly from 38 kebeles in the district. Thus this study was conducted in Kersa HDSS and data was taken from Kersa HDSS database. The study population included all children aged 5 to 14 years registered during the period of 2008 to 2013 in Kersa HDSS using age specific VA questionnaires. Data were extracted from SPSS database and analyzed using STATA. RESULTS: A total of 229 deaths were recorded over the period of six years with a crude death rate of 219.6 per 100,000 population of this age group over the study period. This death rate was 217.5 and 221.5 per 100,000 populations for females and males, respectively. 75% of deaths took place at home. The study identified severe malnutrition(33.9%), intestinal infectious diseases(13.8%) and acute lower respiratory infections(9.2%) to be the three most leading causes of death. In broad causes of death classification, injuries have been found to be the second most cause of death next to communicable diseases(56.3%) attributing to 13.1% of the total deaths. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: In specific causes of death classification severe malnutrition, intestinal infectious diseases and acute lower respiratory infections were the three leading causes of death where, in broad causes of death communicable diseases and injuries were among the leading causes of death. Hence, concerned bodies should take measures to avert the situation of mortality from these causes of death and further inferential analysis into the prevention and management of infectious diseases should also be taken.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has made large-scale healthcare investments to improve child health and survival. However, there is insufficient population level data on the current estimates of infant mortality rate (IMR) in the country. The aim of this study was to measure infant mortality rate, investigate risk factors for infant deaths and identify causes of death in a rural population of northern Ethiopia. METHODS: Live births to a cohort of mothers under the Kilite Awlaelo Health and Demographic Surveillance System were followed up to their first birthday or death, between September 11, 2009 and September 10, 2013. Maternal and infant characteristics were collected at baseline and during the regular follow-up visit. Multiple-Cox regression was used to investigate risk factors for infant death. Causes of infant death were identified using physician review verbal autopsy method. RESULTS: Of the total 3684 infants followed, 174 of them died before their first birthday, yielding an IMR of 47 per 1000 live births (95 % CI: 41, 54) over the four years of follow-up. About 96 % of infants survived up to their first birthday, and 56 % of infant deaths occurred during the neonatal period. Infants born to mothers aged 15-19 years old had higher risk of death (HR = 2.68, 95 % CI: 1. 74, 4.87) than those born to 25-29 years old. Infants of mothers who attained a secondary school and above had 56 % lower risk of death (HR = 0.44, 95 % CI: 0.24, 0.81) compared to those whose mothers did not attend formal education. Sepsis, prematurity and asphyxia and acute lower respiratory tract infections were the commonest causes of death. CONCLUSION: The IMR for the four-year period was lower than the national and regional estimates. Our findings suggest the need to improve the newborn care, and empower teenagers to delay teenage pregnancy and attain higher levels of education.