Last data update: Apr 22, 2024. (Total: 46599 publications since 2009)
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Pregnancy and infant outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy during Delta variant predominance - surveillance for emerging threats to pregnant people and infants: Pregnancy and infant outcomes during SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant predominance
Reeves EL , Neelam V , Carlson JM , Olsen EO , Fox CJ , Woodworth KR , Nestoridi E , Mobley E , Montero Castro S , Dzimira P , Sokale A , Sizemore L , Hall AJ , Ellington S , Cohn A , Gilboa SM , Tong VT . Am J Obstet Gynecol MFM 2023 6 (2) 101265 BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of adverse birth outcomes such as preterm birth, stillbirth, and maternal and infant complications. Previous research suggests an increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness and stillbirth in pregnant people during delta variant predominance in 2021; however, those studies did not assess timing of infection during pregnancy, and few of them described COVID-19 vaccination status. OBJECTIVE: Using a large population-based cohort, this study compared pregnancy and infant outcomes and described demographic and clinical characteristics of pregnant people with SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to and during the delta variant period. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective cohort analysis included persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy from 6 US jurisdictions reporting to the Surveillance for Emerging Threats to Pregnant People and Infants Network. Data were collected through case reports of polymerase chain reaction-positive pregnant persons and linkages to birth certificates, fetal death records, and immunization records. We described clinical characteristics and compared frequency of spontaneous abortion (<20 weeks of gestation), stillbirth (≥20 weeks), preterm birth (<37 weeks), small for gestational age, and term infant neonatal intensive care unit admission between the time periods of pre-delta and delta variant predominance. Study time periods were determined by when variants constituted more than 50% of sequences isolated according to regional SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance data, with time periods defined for pre-delta (March 3, 2020-June 25, 2021) and Delta (June 26, 2021-December 25, 2021). Adjusted prevalence ratios were estimated for each outcome measure using Poisson regression and were adjusted for continuous maternal age, race and ethnicity, and insurance status at delivery. RESULTS: Among 57,563 pregnancy outcomes, 57,188 (99.3%) were liveborn infants, 65 (0.1%) were spontaneous abortions, and 310 (0.5%) were stillbirths. Most pregnant persons were unvaccinated at the time of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with a higher proportion in pre-delta (99.4%) than in the delta period (78.4%). Of those with infections during delta and who were previously vaccinated, the timing from last vaccination to infection was a median of 183 days. Compared to pre-delta, infections during delta were associated with a higher frequency of stillbirths (0.7% vs 0.4%; adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-2.09) and preterm births (12.8% vs 11.9%; adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.20). The delta period was associated with a lower frequency of neonatal intensive care unit admission (adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.82) than in the pre-delta period. During the delta period, infection during the third trimester was associated with a higher frequency of preterm birth (adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-1.56) and neonatal intensive care unit admission (adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.45) compared to the first and second trimester combined. CONCLUSION: In this US-based cohort of persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy, the majority were unvaccinated, and frequencies of stillbirth and preterm birth were higher during the delta variant predominance period than in the pre-delta period. During the delta period, frequency of preterm birth and neonatal intensive care unit admission was higher among infections occurring in the third trimester vs those earlier in pregnancy. These findings demonstrate population-level increases of adverse fetal and infant outcomes, specifically in the presence of a COVID-19 variant with more severe presentation. |
Geospatial analysis of Plasmodium falciparum serological indicators: school versus community sampling in a low-transmission malaria setting
Jaramillo-Underwood A , Herman C , Jean SE , Nace D , Elder ES , Robinson K , Knipes A , Worrell CM , Fox LM , Desir L , Fayette C , Javel A , Monestime F , Mace KE , Udhayakumar V , Won KY , Chang MA , Lemoine JF , Rogier E . BMC Med 2024 22 (1) 31 BACKGROUND: Due to low numbers of active infections and persons presenting to health facilities for malaria treatment, case-based surveillance is inefficient for understanding the remaining disease burden in low malaria transmission settings. Serological data through the detection of IgG antibodies from previous malaria parasite exposure can fill this gap by providing a nuanced picture of where sustained transmission remains. Study enrollment at sites of gathering provides a potential approach to spatially estimate malaria exposure and could preclude the need for more intensive community-based sampling. METHODS: This study compared spatial estimates of malaria exposure from cross-sectional school- and community-based sampling in Haiti. A total of 52,405 blood samples were collected from 2012 to 2017. Multiplex bead assays (MBAs) tested IgG against P. falciparum liver stage antigen-1 (LSA-1), apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1), and merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP1). Predictive geospatial models of seropositivity adjusted for environmental covariates, and results were compared using correlations by coordinate points and communes across Haiti. RESULTS: Consistent directional associations were observed between seroprevalence and environmental covariates for elevation (negative), air temperature (negative), and travel time to urban centers (positive). Spearman's rank correlation for predicted seroprevalence at coordinate points was lowest for LSA-1 (ρ = 0.10, 95% CI: 0.09-0.11), but improved for AMA1 (ρ = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.35-0.37) and MSP1 (ρ = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.47-0.49). CONCLUSIONS: In settings approaching P. falciparum elimination, case-based prevalence data does not provide a resolution of ongoing malaria transmission in the population. Immunogenic antigen targets (e.g., AMA1, MSP1) that give higher population rates of seropositivity provide moderate correlation to gold standard community sampling designs and are a feasible approach to discern foci of residual P. falciparum transmission in an area. |
Early serial echocardiographic and ultrasonographic findings in critically ill patients with COVID-19
Lanspa MJ , Dugar SP , Prigmore HL , Boyd JS , Rupp JD , Lindsell CJ , Rice TW , Qadir N , Lim GW , Shiloh AL , Dieiev V , Gong MN , Fox SW , Hirshberg EL , Khan A , Kornfield J , Schoeneck JH , Macklin N , Files DC , Gibbs KW , Prekker ME , Parsons-Moss D , Bown M , Olsen TD , Knox DB , Cirulis MM , Mehkri O , Duggal A , Tenforde MW , Patel MM , Self WH , Brown SM . CHEST Crit Care 2023 1 (1) 100002 BACKGROUND: Cardiac function of critically ill patients with COVID-19 generally has been reported from clinically obtained data. Echocardiographic deformation imaging can identify ventricular dysfunction missed by traditional echocardiographic assessment. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the prevalence of ventricular dysfunction and what are its implications for the natural history of critical COVID-19? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This is a multicenter prospective cohort of critically ill patients with COVID-19. We performed serial echocardiography and lower extremity vascular ultrasound on hospitalization days 1, 3, and 8. We defined left ventricular (LV) dysfunction as the absolute value of longitudinal strain of < 17% or left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) of < 50%. Primary clinical outcome was inpatient survival. RESULTS: We enrolled 110 patients. Thirty-nine (35.5%) died before hospital discharge. LV dysfunction was present at admission in 38 patients (34.5%) and in 21 patients (36.2%) on day 8 (P = .59). Median baseline LVEF was 62% (interquartile range [IQR], 52%-69%), whereas median absolute value of baseline LV strain was 16% (IQR, 14%-19%). Survivors and nonsurvivors did not differ statistically significantly with respect to day 1 LV strain (17.9% vs 14.4%; P = .12) or day 1 LVEF (60.5% vs 65%; P = .06). Nonsurvivors showed worse day 1 right ventricle (RV) strain than survivors (16.3% vs 21.2%; P = .04). INTERPRETATION: Among patients with critical COVID-19, LV and RV dysfunction is common, frequently identified only through deformation imaging, and early (day 1) RV dysfunction may be associated with clinical outcome. |
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Howerton E , Contamin L , Mullany LC , Qin M , Reich NG , Bents S , Borchering RK , Jung SM , Loo SL , Smith CP , Levander J , Kerr J , Espino J , van Panhuis WG , Hochheiser H , Galanti M , Yamana T , Pei S , Shaman J , Rainwater-Lovett K , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Shin L , Lemaitre JC , Kaminsky J , Hulse JD , Lee EC , McKee CD , Hill A , Karlen D , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Rosenstrom ET , Ivy JS , Mayorga ME , Swann JL , España G , Cavany S , Moore S , Perkins A , Hladish T , Pillai A , Ben Toh K , Longini I Jr , Chen S , Paul R , Janies D , Thill JC , Bouchnita A , Bi K , Lachmann M , Fox SJ , Meyers LA , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Hurt B , Chen J , Mortveit H , Wilson A , Marathe M , Hoops S , Bhattacharya P , Machi D , Cadwell BL , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Truelove S , Runge MC , Shea K , Viboud C , Lessler J . Nat Commun 2023 14 (1) 7260 Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections. |
Vital signs for pediatric health: High school graduation
Hoagwood K , Walker DK , Edwards A , Kaminski JW , Kelleher KJ , Spandorfer J , Fox EG . NAM Perspect 2023 2023 In 2015, the Institute of Medicine (now the National Academy of Medicine) released the report Vital Signs: Core Metrics for Health and Health Care Progress as a “basic, minimum slate of core metrics for use as sentinel indices of performance at various levels with respect to the key elements of health and health care progress” (IOM, 2015). Although indicators of pediatric health were included in that report as key elements of healthy behaviors, healthy communities, and preventive services, the core measures in the report emphasized indicators of adult health. This series of papers, “Vital Signs for Pediatric Health”, describes four metrics across the pediatric life course, each measuring how well the health care system is building the physical, cognitive, and socio-emotional health of the pediatric population, thereby laying the foundation for life-long health and well-being. The metrics—infant mortality, school readiness, chronic absenteeism, and high school graduation—were selected to focus on four different developmental stages of growth. A standardized set of core metrics to assess pediatric health could provide data to support health systems in identifying important areas for attention among their pediatric population and enable them to respond in a timely way. This rapid response is especially important in pediatric health systems as children undergo rapid development within a short time span. | | This paper discusses one of those four measures—high school graduation—as a pediatric vital sign because it reflects more than a number. Successful completion of high school also reflects the degree to which healthy growth and development has been supported throughout childhood. Earning a high school diploma is a predictor of adult success, including better employment outcomes, better adult physical and mental health, and decreased likelihood of involvement with the criminal justice system (NCES, 2021b; Blackwell et al., 2014; Lochner and Moretti, 2004). Those who do not graduate from high school face a greater likelihood of health risks as adults, including lower life expectancy, limited employment prospects, lower lifetime wages, and increased risk of incarceration (APHA, 2018). | | The remainder of this paper defines high school graduation rate, the selection of the specific measure that can assess high school graduation, and the technical integrity of the measure. The paper also describes disparities by state, race and ethnicity, and socio-economic status and delineates the importance of a high school diploma, including impacts on employment, future earnings, and individual health. It is important to note that the General Equivalency Diploma (GED) is not considered in this paper. Research shows that adults with GEDs have health outcomes more similar to high school dropouts than to graduates and perform at the level of dropouts in the labor market (Zajacova, 2012; Heckman and LaFontaine, 2007). Finally, the paper lays out the challenges in linking education data with health systems data to help communities have a broader impact on improving the health and well-being of their populations, implementation challenges more broadly, and potential ways to improve use of this metric to increase high school graduation rates. |
Vital signs for pediatric health: Chronic absenteeism
Johnson SB , Edwards A , Cheng T , Kelleher KJ , Kaminski J , Fox EG . NAM Perspect 2023 2023 In 2015, the Institute of Medicine (now the National Academy of Medicine) released the report Vital Signs: Core Metrics for Health and Health Care Progress as a “basic, minimum slate of core metrics for use as sentinel indices of performance at various levels with respect to the key elements of health and health care progress” (IOM, 2015). Although indicators of pediatric health were included in that report as key elements of healthy behaviors, healthy communities, and preventive services, the core measures in the report emphasized indicators of adult health. This series of papers, “Vital Signs for Pediatric Health”, describes four metrics across the pediatric life course, each measuring how well the health care system is building the physical, cognitive, and socio-emotional health of the pediatric population, thereby laying the foundation for life-long health and well-being. The metrics—infant mortality, school readiness, chronic absenteeism, and high school graduation—were selected to focus on four different developmental stages of growth. A standardized set of core metrics to assess pediatric health could provide data to support health systems in identifying important areas for attention among their pediatric population and enable them to respond in a timely way. This rapid response is especially important in pediatric health systems as children undergo rapid development within a short time span. | | This paper discusses one of those four measures—chronic absenteeism in middle school—as a developmental target for middle childhood. Middle school may include grades 5 to 9 or a subset of these grades; typically, this includes children who are approximately 10–15 years old. While chronic absenteeism—typically defined as missing 10% or more of enrolled school days—has potential utility as a measure from the time children enter formal schooling in pre-kindergarten through grade 12, measuring chronic absenteeism in middle childhood provides critical information about health and well-being between two key developmental stages captured by other vital signs: early childhood, captured by school readiness, and adolescence, captured by high school graduation. | | Health and educational success are intertwined, as more education has been linked to better health outcomes across the life course (Basch, 2011; Cutler and Lleras-Muney, 2006). Therefore, participation in education is crucial for both developmental and educational progress. Research has documented associations of chronic absenteeism with both acute (e.g., influenza infection, fractures) and chronic (e.g., asthma, type 1 diabetes mellitus) physical health conditions, as well as with mental health disorders and substance use (Allison et al., 2019). Research has also linked chronic absenteeism to poorer educational performance and attainment (Allison et al., 2019). Chronic absenteeism is robustly inversely associated with on-time high school graduation (BERC, 2011). For more information on the importance of high school graduation, refer to “Vital Signs for Pediatric Health: High School Graduation” (Hoagwood et al., 2023). | | Given the links between educational attainment and health, measuring students' chronic absenteeism in middle school may provide a window into physical and mental health in middle childhood and early adolescence, socio-emotional functioning, readiness to learn, family risk and resilience, and potential threats to current and long-term health and well-being (RWJF, 2016). School-level chronic absenteeism, as well as aggregations of multiple schools, such as those served by a particular health system, may also provide an indicator of the adequacy of interventions to promote health and educational equity at the population level. As such, chronic absenteeism could be a vital sign to measure health systems' performance. | | The remainder of this paper defines the chronic absenteeism measure, the selection of the specific measure that assesses chronic absenteeism, and the technical integrity of the measure. The paper also makes clear the links between school attendance and individual health outcomes. The shifting landscape of chronic absenteeism in the COVID-19 global pandemic and its anticipated aftermath are also considered. |
Vital signs for pediatric health: School readiness
Kaminski JW , Barrueco S , Kelleher KJ , Hoagwood K , Edwards A , Fox EG . NAM Perspect 2023 2023 In 2015, the Institute of Medicine (now the National Academy of Medicine) released the report Vital Signs: Core Metrics for Health and Health Care Progress as a “basic, minimum slate of core metrics for use as sentinel indices of performance at various levels with respect to the key elements of health and health care progress” (IOM, 2015). Although indicators of pediatric health were included in that report as key elements of healthy behaviors, healthy communities, and preventive services, the core measures in the report emphasized indicators of adult health. This series of papers, “Vital Signs for Pediatric Health”, describes four metrics across the pediatric life course, each measuring how well the health care system is building the physical, cognitive, and socio-emotional health of the pediatric population, thereby laying the foundation for life-long health and well-being. The metrics—infant mortality, school readiness, chronic absenteeism, and high school graduation—were selected to focus on four different developmental stages of growth. A standardized set of core metrics to assess pediatric health could provide data to support health systems in identifying important areas for attention among their pediatric population and enable them to respond in a timely way. This rapid response is especially important in pediatric health systems as children undergo rapid development within a short time span. | | This paper discusses one of those four measures—school readiness—as a developmental target for early childhood (ages 0 to 5). School readiness could serve as a comprehensive lens for the early development of children across various domains: physical, socio-emotional, language, knowledge, cognition (including early literacy and math), and approaches to learning. Systemic measurement of young children’s school readiness plays a critical role at multiple levels of health and educational systems. At the individual level, comprehensive assessment in early childhood facilitates the early identification of children who would benefit from preventive and intervention services to support their growth and development. At the district level, aggregate indicators can identify where to target resources and interventions within local health and educational systems. At the systems level, understanding current trends in school readiness data can facilitate the development of effective state and federal performance indicators. Ultimately, longitudinal tracking of school readiness could monitor strengths, risks, and the effects of practice and policy changes on meeting the needs of young children over time across districts, states, and the country (Williams et al., 2019). Together, the role of school readiness in the broader picture of child health and development, as well as the identified roles for communities and systems to track school readiness data and intervene with programs and polices when indicated, support the utilization of school readiness as a pediatric vital sign. | | This paper outlines the authors’ definition of school readiness and describes why it is a promising pediatric vital sign. The paper also outlines the importance of school readiness and its impacts on individual health, as well as how a lack of school readiness can lead to health disparities. Finally, the paper lays out the challenges in linking data across health and educational systems to further the capability of communities in improving the health and well-being of their populations. |
Vital signs for pediatric health: Infant mortality
Kelleher KJ , Hoagwood K , Walker DK , Kaminski JW , Gardner W , Fox EG . NAM Perspect 2023 2023 In 2015, the Institute of Medicine (now the National Academy of Medicine) released the report Vital Signs: Core Metrics for Health and Health Care Progress as a “basic, minimum slate of core metrics for use as sentinel indices of performance at various levels with respect to the key elements of health and health care progress” (IOM, 2015). Although indicators of pediatric health were included in that report as key elements of healthy behaviors, healthy communities, and preventive services, the core measures in the report emphasized indicators of adult health. This series of papers, “Vital Signs for Pediatric Health”, describes four metrics across the pediatric life course, each measuring how well the health care system is building the physical, cognitive, and socio-emotional health of the pediatric population, thereby laying the foundation for life-long health and well-being. The metrics—infant mortality, school readiness, chronic absenteeism, and high school graduation—were selected to focus on four different developmental stages of growth. A standardized set of core metrics to assess pediatric health could provide data to support health systems in identifying important areas for attention among their pediatric population and enable them to respond in a timely way. This rapid response is especially important in pediatric health systems as children undergo rapid development within a short time span. | | This paper discusses one of those four measures—infant mortality rate (IMR)—as a measure of the early period of life. IMR is used globally as a key indicator of child survival. As a measure, it is sensitive to improvements in care for both women and children, is associated with other well-being indicators in communities, and reflects health inequities in the community (ChildStats, 2021; Ely et al., 2017). | | This paper defines IMR and describes why it is a critical pediatric vital sign, then articulates the value of reducing disparities in IMR. Finally, the paper lays out the challenges to using IMR as an indicator for health system accountability. |
Pathogenic Leptospira are widespread in the urban wildlife of southern California
Helman SK , Tokuyama AFN , Mummah RO , Stone NE , Gamble MW , Snedden CE , Borremans B , Gomez ACR , Cox C , Nussbaum J , Tweedt I , Haake DA , Galloway RL , Monzón J , Riley SPD , Sikich JA , Brown J , Friscia A , Sahl JW , Wagner DM , Lynch JW , Prager KC , Lloyd-Smith JO . Sci Rep 2023 13 (1) 14368 Leptospirosis, the most widespread zoonotic disease in the world, is broadly understudied in multi-host wildlife systems. Knowledge gaps regarding Leptospira circulation in wildlife, particularly in densely populated areas, contribute to frequent misdiagnoses in humans and domestic animals. We assessed Leptospira prevalence levels and risk factors in five target wildlife species across the greater Los Angeles region: striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), raccoons (Procyon lotor), coyotes (Canis latrans), Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana), and fox squirrels (Sciurus niger). We sampled more than 960 individual animals, including over 700 from target species in the greater Los Angeles region, and an additional 266 sampled opportunistically from other California regions and species. In the five target species seroprevalences ranged from 5 to 60%, and infection prevalences ranged from 0.8 to 15.2% in all except fox squirrels (0%). Leptospira phylogenomics and patterns of serologic reactivity suggest that mainland terrestrial wildlife, particularly mesocarnivores, could be the source of repeated observed introductions of Leptospira into local marine and island ecosystems. Overall, we found evidence of widespread Leptospira exposure in wildlife across Los Angeles and surrounding regions. This indicates exposure risk for humans and domestic animals and highlights that this pathogen can circulate endemically in many wildlife species even in densely populated urban areas. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Forecasting seasonal influenza in the U.S.: A collaborative multi-year, multi-model assessment of forecast performance (preprint)
Reich NG , Brooks LC , Fox SJ , Kandula S , McGowan CJ , Moore E , Osthus D , Ray EL , Tushar A , Yamana TK , Biggerstaff M , Johansson MA , Rosenfeld R , Shaman J . bioRxiv 2018 397190 Influenza infects an estimated 9 to 35 million individuals each year in the United States and is a contributing cause for between 12,000 and 56,000 deaths annually. Seasonal outbreaks of influenza are common in temperate regions of the world, with highest incidence typically occurring in colder and drier months of the year. Real-time forecasts of influenza transmission can inform public health response to outbreaks. We present the results of a multi-institution collaborative effort to standardize the collection and evaluation of forecasting models for influenza in the US for the 2010/2011 through 2016/2017 influenza seasons. For these seven seasons, we assembled weekly real-time forecasts of 7 targets of public health interest from 22 different models. We compared forecast accuracy of each model relative to a historical baseline seasonal average. Across all regions of the US, over half of the models showed consistently better performance than the historical baseline when forecasting incidence of influenza-like illness 1, 2 and 3 weeks ahead of available data and when forecasting the timing and magnitude of the seasonal peak. In some regions, delays in data reporting were strongly and negatively associated with forecast accuracy. More timely reporting and an improved overall accessibility to novel and traditional data sources are needed to improve forecasting accuracy and its integration with real-time public health decision-making. |
Downgrading disease transmission risk estimates using terminal importations (preprint)
Fox SJ , Bellan SE , Perkins TA , Johansson MA , Meyers LA . bioRxiv 2018 265942 As emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases like dengue, Ebola, chikungunya, and Zika threaten new populations worldwide, officials scramble to assess local severity and transmissibility, with little to no epidemiological history to draw upon. Standard methods for assessing autochthonous (local) transmission risk make either indirect estimates based on ecological suitability or direct estimates only after local cases accumulate. However, an overlooked source of epidemiological data that can meaningfully inform risk assessments prior to outbreak emergence is the absence of transmission by imported cases. Here, we present a method for updating a priori ecological estimates of transmission risk using real-time importation data. We demonstrate our method using Zika importation and transmission data from Texas in 2016, a high-risk region in the southern United States. Our updated risk estimates are lower than previously reported, with only six counties in Texas likely to sustain a Zika epidemic, and consistent with the number of autochthonous cases detected in 2017. Importation events can thereby provide critical, early insight into local transmission risks as infectious diseases expand their global reach. |
Pathogenic Leptospira are widespread in the urban wildlife of southern California (preprint)
Helman SK , Tokuyama AFN , Mummah RO , Gamble MW , Snedden CE , Borremans B , Gomez ACR , Cox C , Nussbaum J , Tweedt I , Haake DA , Galloway RL , Monzon J , Riley SPD , Sikich JA , Brown J , Friscia A , Lynch JW , Prager KC , Lloyd-Smith JO . bioRxiv 2023 15 Leptospirosis is the most widespread zoonotic disease in the world, yet it is broadly understudied in multi-host wildlife systems. Knowledge gaps regarding Leptospira circulation in wildlife, particularly in densely populated areas, contribute to frequent misdiagnoses in humans and domestic animals. We assessed Leptospira prevalence levels and risk factors in five target wildlife species across the greater Los Angeles region: striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), Northern raccoons (Procyon lotor), coyotes (Canis latrans), Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana), and fox squirrels (Sciurus niger). We sampled more than 960 individual animals, including over 700 from target species in the greater Los Angeles region, and an additional 260 sampled opportunistically from other regions and species. In the five target species, seroprevalences ranged from 5-60% and active infection prevalences ranged from 0.8-15.2% in all except fox squirrels (0%). Patterns of serologic reactivity suggest that mainland terrestrial wildlife, particularly mesocarnivores, could be the source of repeated observed introductions of Leptospira into local marine and island ecosystems. Overall, we found evidence of widespread Leptospira exposure in wildlife across Los Angeles and surrounding regions. This indicates exposure risk for humans and domestic animals and highlights that this pathogen can circulate endemically in many wildlife species even in densely populated urban areas. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. |
High subtelomeric GC content in the genome of a zoonotic Cryptosporidium species
Li J , Li N , Roellig DM , Zhao W , Guo Y , Feng Y , Xiao L . Microb Genom 2023 9 (7) Cryptosporidium canis is a zoonotic species causing cryptosporidiosis in humans in addition to its natural hosts dogs and other fur animals. To understand the genetic basis for host adaptation, we sequenced the genomes of C. canis from dogs, minks, and foxes and conducted a comparative genomics analysis. While the genomes of C. canis have similar gene contents and organisations, they (~41.0 %) and C. felis (39.6 %) have GC content much higher than other Cryptosporidium spp. (24.3-32.9 %) sequenced to date. The high GC content is mostly restricted to subtelomeric regions of the eight chromosomes. Most of these GC-balanced genes encode Cryptosporidium-specific proteins that have intrinsically disordered regions and are involved in host-parasite interactions. Natural selection appears to play a more important role in the evolution of codon usage in GC-balanced C. canis, and most of the GC-balanced genes have undergone positive selection. While the identity in whole genome sequences between the mink- and dog-derived isolates is 99.9 % (9365 SNVs), it is only 96.0 % (362 894 SNVs) between them and the fox-derived isolate. In agreement with this, the fox-derived isolate possesses more subtelomeric genes encoding invasion-related protein families. Therefore, the change in subtelomeric GC content appears to be responsible for the more GC-balanced C. canis genomes, and the fox-derived isolate could represent a new Cryptosporidium species. |
Prevalence of disability by occupation group - United States, 2016-2020
Shockey TM , Fox K , Zhao G , Hollis N . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (20) 540-546 In 2020, approximately 21.5 million employed U.S. adults aged 18-64 years had some form of disability. Although 75.8% of noninstitutionalized persons without disability aged 18-64 were employed, only 38.4% of their counterparts with disability were employed (1). Persons with disability have job preferences similar to persons without disability but might encounter barriers (e.g., lower average training or education levels, discrimination, or limited transportation options) that affect the types of jobs they hold (2,3). CDC analyzed 2016-2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from 35 states and Guam to estimate disability prevalences, by type and occupation group, among currently employed U.S. adults aged 18-64 years. The highest adjusted disability prevalences were among workers in three of the 22 major occupation groups: food preparation and serving-related (19.9%); personal care and service (19.4%); and arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media (17.7%). Occupation groups with the lowest adjusted disability prevalences were business and financial operations (11.3%), health care practitioners and technicians (11.1%), and architecture and engineering (11.0%). The distributions of persons with and without disability differ across occupations. Workplace programs that address the training, education, and workplace needs of employees with disability might improve workers' ability to enter, thrive in, and advance in a wider range of occupations. |
Multinational outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes infections linked to enoki mushrooms imported from The Republic of Korea 2016-2020
Pereira E , Conrad A , Tesfai A , Palacios A , Kandar R , Kearney A , Locas A , Jamieson F , Elliot E , Otto M , Kurdilla K , Tijerina M , Son I , Pettengill JB , Chen Y , Fox T , Lane C , Aguillon R , Huffman J , Sheau Fong Low M , Wise M , Edwards L , Bidol S , Blankenship HM , Rosen HE , Leclercq A , Lecuit M , Tourdjman M , Herber H , Singleton LS , Viazis S , Bazaco MC . J Food Prot 2023 86 (7) 100101 Keeping the global food supply safe necessitates international collaborations between countries. Health and regulatory agencies routinely communicate during foodborne illness outbreaks, allowing partners to share investigational evidence. A 2016-2020 outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes infections linked to imported enoki mushrooms required a multinational collaborative investigation among the United States, Canada, Australia, and France. Ultimately, this outbreak included 48 ill people, 36 in the United States and 12 in Canada, and was linked to enoki mushrooms sourced from one manufacturer located in the Republic of Korea. Epidemiologic, laboratory, and traceback evidence led to multiple regulatory actions, including extensive voluntary recalls by three firms in the United States and one firm in Canada. In the United States and Canada, the Korean manufacturer was placed on import alert while other international partners provided information about their respective investigations and advised the public not to eat the recalled enoki mushrooms. The breadth of the geographic distribution of this outbreak emphasizes the global reach of the food industry. This investigation provides a powerful example of the impact of national and international coordination of efforts to respond to foodborne illness outbreaks and protect consumers. It also demonstrates the importance of fast international data sharing and collaboration in identifying and stopping foodborne outbreaks in the global community. Additionally, it is a meaningful example of the importance of food sampling, testing, and integration of sequencing results into surveillance databases. |
Evaluation of public health contact tracing for mpox among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men-10 US jurisdictions, May 17-July 31, 2022
Cope AB , Kirkcaldy RD , Weidle PJ , Jackson DA , Laramee N , Weber R , Rowse J , Mangla A , Fox B , Saunders KE , Taniguchi K , Usagawa L , Cahill ME , Harrington P , Ricketts EK , Harbi K , Malec L , Templin TG , Drociuk D , Hannibal T , Klos R , Bernstein KT . Am J Public Health 2023 113 (7) e1-e4 Objectives. To examine the potential impact of contact tracing to identify contacts and prevent mpox transmission among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) as the outbreak expanded. Methods. We assessed contact tracing outcomes from 10 US jurisdictions before and after access to the mpox vaccine was expanded from postexposure prophylaxis for persons with known exposure to include persons at high risk for acquisition (May 17-June 30, 2022, and July 1-31, 2022, respectively). Results. Overall, 1986 mpox cases were reported in MSM from included jurisdictions (240 before expanded vaccine access; 1746 after expanded vaccine access). Most MSM with mpox were interviewed (95.0% before vaccine expansion and 97.0% after vaccine expansion); the proportion who named at least 1 contact decreased during the 2 time periods (74.6% to 38.9%). Conclusions. During the period when mpox cases among MSM increased and vaccine access expanded, contact tracing became less efficient at identifying exposed contacts. Public Health Implications. Contact tracing was more effective at identifying persons exposed to mpox in MSM sexual and social networks when case numbers were low, and it could be used to facilitate vaccine access. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print May 4, 2023:e1-e4. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307301). |
Health Care Transition Experiences of Males with Childhood-onset Duchenne and Becker Muscular Dystrophy: Findings from the Muscular Dystrophy Surveillance Tracking and Research Network (MD STARnet) Health Care Transitions and Other Life Experiences Survey
Paramsothy P , Herron AR , Lamb M , Kinnett K , Wolff J , Yang Ml , Oleszek J , Pandya S , Kennedy A , Cooney D , Fox D , Sheehan D . PLoS Curr 2018 10 Introduction: As the proportion of males with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) surviving into adulthood increases, more information is needed regarding their health care transition planning, an essential process for adolescents and young adults with DMD. The objective of this study was to describe the health care transition experiences of a population of males living with Duchenne or Becker muscular dystrophy (DBMD). Methods: The eligible participants, identified through the Muscular Dystrophy Surveillance Tracking and Research Network (MD STARnet) surveillance project, were 16-31 years old and lived in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, or western New York (n=258). The MD STARnet Health Care Transitions and Other Life Experiences Survey was conducted in 2013 and administered online or in a telephone interview. Sixty-five males (25%) completed the survey. Among non-ambulatory males, response differences were compared by age group. Statistical comparisons were conducted using Fisher's exact test, or when appropriate, the Chisquare test. Results: Twenty-one percent of non-ambulatory males aged 16-18 years, 28% of non-ambulatory males aged 19-23 years, 25% of non-ambulatory males aged 24-30 years, and 18 ambulatory males had a written transition plan. Nineteen percent of non-ambulatory males aged 24-30 years had delayed or gone without needed health care in the past 12 months. Among non-ambulatory males aged 24-30 years, 75% had cardiology providers and 69% had pulmonology providers involved in their care in the past 12 months. Twentyeight percent of non-ambulatory males aged 19-23 years and 25% of non-ambulatory males aged 24-30 years reported that they did not receive health care or other services at least once because they were unable to leave their home. Non-ambulatory males aged 16-18 years (29%) were less likely to have ever discussed how to obtain or keep health insurance as they get older compared to non-ambulatory males aged 24-30 years (69%) (p <0.01). Discussion: This study identified potential barriers to the successful health care transition of males with DBMD. The results of this study may indicate a lack of targeted informational resources and education focused on supporting the transition of young men with DBMD as they age from adolescence into adulthood within the healthcare system. Future studies could determine the reasons for the potential barriers to health care and identify the optimal transition programs for males with DBMD. There are a few online resources on transition available to adolescents and young adults with special health care needs. |
Initial public health response and interim clinical guidance for the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak - United States, December 31, 2019-February 4, 2020.
Patel A , Jernigan DB , 2019-nCOV CDC Response Team , Abdirizak Fatuma , Abedi Glen , Aggarwal Sharad , Albina Denise , Allen Elizabeth , Andersen Lauren , Anderson Jade , Anderson Megan , Anderson Tara , Anderson Kayla , Bardossy Ana Cecilia , Barry Vaughn , Beer Karlyn , Bell Michael , Berger Sherri , Bertulfo Joseph , Biggs Holly , Bornemann Jennifer , Bornstein Josh , Bower Willie , Bresee Joseph , Brown Clive , Budd Alicia , Buigut Jennifer , Burke Stephen , Burke Rachel , Burns Erin , Butler Jay , Cantrell Russell , Cardemil Cristina , Cates Jordan , Cetron Marty , Chatham-Stephens Kevin , Chatham-Stevens Kevin , Chea Nora , Christensen Bryan , Chu Victoria , Clarke Kevin , Cleveland Angela , Cohen Nicole , Cohen Max , Cohn Amanda , Collins Jennifer , Conners Erin , Curns Aaron , Dahl Rebecca , Daley Walter , Dasari Vishal , Davlantes Elizabeth , Dawson Patrick , Delaney Lisa , Donahue Matthew , Dowell Chad , Dyal Jonathan , Edens William , Eidex Rachel , Epstein Lauren , Evans Mary , Fagan Ryan , Farris Kevin , Feldstein Leora , Fox LeAnne , Frank Mark , Freeman Brandi , Fry Alicia , Fuller James , Galang Romeo , Gerber Sue , Gokhale Runa , Goldstein Sue , Gorman Sue , Gregg William , Greim William , Grube Steven , Hall Aron , Haynes Amber , Hill Sherrasa , Hornsby-Myers Jennifer , Hunter Jennifer , Ionta Christopher , Isenhour Cheryl , Jacobs Max , Jacobs Slifka Kara , Jernigan Daniel , Jhung Michael , Jones-Wormley Jamie , Kambhampati Anita , Kamili Shifaq , Kennedy Pamela , Kent Charlotte , Killerby Marie , Kim Lindsay , Kirking Hannah , Koonin Lisa , Koppaka Ram , Kosmos Christine , Kuhar David , Kuhnert-Tallman Wendi , Kujawski Stephanie , Kumar Archana , Landon Alexander , Lee Leslie , Leung Jessica , Lindstrom Stephen , Link-Gelles Ruth , Lively Joana , Lu Xiaoyan , Lynch Brian , Malapati Lakshmi , Mandel Samantha , Manns Brian , Marano Nina , Marlow Mariel , Marston Barbara , McClung Nancy , McClure Liz , McDonald Emily , McGovern Oliva , Messonnier Nancy , Midgley Claire , Moulia Danielle , Murray Janna , Noelte Kate , Noonan-Smith Michelle , Nordlund Kristen , Norton Emily , Oliver Sara , Pallansch Mark , Parashar Umesh , Patel Anita , Patel Manisha , Pettrone Kristen , Pierce Taran , Pietz Harald , Pillai Satish , Radonovich Lewis , Reagan-Steiner Sarah , Reel Amy , Reese Heather , Rha Brian , Ricks Philip , Rolfes Melissa , Roohi Shahrokh , Roper Lauren , Rotz Lisa , Routh Janell , Sakthivel Senthil Kumar Sarmiento Luisa , Schindelar Jessica , Schneider Eileen , Schuchat Anne , Scott Sarah , Shetty Varun , Shockey Caitlin , Shugart Jill , Stenger Mark , Stuckey Matthew , Sunshine Brittany , Sykes Tamara , Trapp Jonathan , Uyeki Timothy , Vahey Grace , Valderrama Amy , Villanueva Julie , Walker Tunicia , Wallace Megan , Wang Lijuan , Watson John , Weber Angie , Weinbaum Cindy , Weldon William , Westnedge Caroline , Whitaker Brett , Whitaker Michael , Williams Alcia , Williams Holly , Willams Ian , Wong Karen , Xie Amy , Yousef Anna . Am J Transplant 2020 20 (3) 889-895 This article summarizes what is currently known about the 2019 novel coronavirus and offers interim guidance. |
An external quality assessment feasibility study; cross laboratory comparison of haemagglutination inhibition assay and microneutralization assay performance for seasonal influenza serology testing: A FLUCOP study
Waldock J , Weiss CD , Wang W , Levine MZ , Jefferson SN , Ho S , Hoschler K , Londt BZ , Masat E , Carolan L , Sánchez-Ovando S , Fox A , Watanabe S , Akimoto M , Sato A , Kishida N , Buys A , Maake L , Fourie C , Caillet C , Raynaud S , Webby RJ , DeBeauchamp J , Cox RJ , Lartey SL , Trombetta CM , Marchi S , Montomoli E , Sanz-Muñoz I , Eiros JM , Sánchez-Martínez J , Duijsings D , Engelhardt OG . Front Immunol 2023 14 1129765 INTRODUCTION: External Quality Assessment (EQA) schemes are designed to provide a snapshot of laboratory proficiency, identifying issues and providing feedback to improve laboratory performance and inter-laboratory agreement in testing. Currently there are no international EQA schemes for seasonal influenza serology testing. Here we present a feasibility study for conducting an EQA scheme for influenza serology methods. METHODS: We invited participant laboratories from industry, contract research organizations (CROs), academia and public health institutions who regularly conduct hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and microneutralization (MN) assays and have an interest in serology standardization. In total 16 laboratories returned data including 19 data sets for HAI assays and 9 data sets for MN assays. RESULTS: Within run analysis demonstrated good laboratory performance for HAI, with intrinsically higher levels of intra-assay variation for MN assays. Between run analysis showed laboratory and strain specific issues, particularly with B strains for HAI, whilst MN testing was consistently good across labs and strains. Inter-laboratory variability was higher for MN assays than HAI, however both assays showed a significant reduction in inter-laboratory variation when a human sera pool is used as a standard for normalization. DISCUSSION: This study has received positive feedback from participants, highlighting the benefit such an EQA scheme would have on improving laboratory performance, reducing inter laboratory variation and raising awareness of both harmonized protocol use and the benefit of biological standards for seasonal influenza serology testing. |
HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis services for black and hispanic or latino gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men and transgender women in THRIVE, 2015-2020
Tanner MR , Zhu W , Iqbal K , Dominguez KL , Yu L , Hayes T , Wiener J , Koenig LJ , Batey S , Burgess S , Elamin F , Fox A , Price A , Wood L , Hoover KW . J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2022 92 (4) 286-292 BACKGROUND: AND SETTING: From 2015-2020 the THRIVE project supported seven U.S. health departments to improve HIV prevention services for Black or African American (Black) and Hispanic or Latino gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) and transgender women (TGW). METHODS: We described services provided in the THRIVE PrEP continuum. Using Poisson regression models we estimated associations between race or ethnicity and age and PrEP screening, linkage, and prescription. We examined associations between co-location of services and PrEP linkage and prescription for two sites. RESULTS: THRIVE served 12,972 GBM without HIV; 37% of PrEP-eligible GBM were prescribed PrEP. THRIVE served 1,185 TGW without HIV; 45% of PrEP-eligible TGW were prescribed PrEP. Black and Hispanic or Latino GBM were 29% (RR=0.71, 95% CI 0.66-0.77) and 19% (RR=0.81, 95% CI 0.75-0.87) less likely, respectively, to be prescribed PrEP than White GBM. GBM 18-24 years and ≥55 years were 19% (RR=0.81, 95% CI 0.75-0.87) and 22% (RR=0.78, 95% CI 0.67-0.9) less likely, respectively, to be prescribed PrEP compared to those 35-44 years. Co-located services were associated with a 54% (RR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.44-1.64) and a 31% (RR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.19-1.43) greater likelihood of PrEP linkage and prescription respectively compared to services at different locations. CONCLUSIONS: THRIVE provided PrEP to higher proportions of PrEP-eligible persons than current national estimates, however PrEP use disparities persist. Co-location of services may be a useful component of jurisdictional strategies to increase PrEP coverage. |
Spatial, environmental, and individual associations with Anopheles albimanus salivary antigen IgG in Haitian children
Jaramillo-Underwood A , Herman C , Impoinvil D , Sutcliff A , Knipes A , Worrell CM , Fox LM , Desir L , Fayette C , Javel A , Monestime F , Mace KE , Chang MA , Lemoine JF , Won K , Udhayakumar V , Rogier E . Front Cell Infect Microbiol 2022 12 1033917 IgG serology can be utilized to estimate exposure to Anopheline malaria vectors and the Plasmodium species they transmit. A multiplex bead-based assay simultaneously detected IgG to Anopheles albimanus salivary gland extract (SGE) and four Plasmodium falciparum antigens (CSP, LSA-1, PfAMA1, and PfMSP1) in 11,541 children enrolled at 350 schools across Haiti in 2016. Logistic regression estimated odds of an above-median anti-SGE IgG response adjusting for individual- and environmental-level covariates. Spatial analysis detected statistically significant clusters of schools with students having high anti-SGE IgG levels, and spatial interpolation estimated anti-SGE IgG levels in unsampled locations. Boys had 11% (95% CI: 0.81, 0.98) lower odds of high anti-SGE IgG compared to girls, and children seropositive for PfMSP1 had 53% (95% CI: 1.17, 2.00) higher odds compared to PfMSP1 seronegatives. Compared to the lowest elevation, quartiles 2-4 of higher elevation were associated with successively lower odds (0.81, 0.43, and 0.34, respectively) of high anti-SGE IgG. Seven significant clusters of schools were detected in Haiti, while spatially interpolated results provided a comprehensive picture of anti-SGE IgG levels in the study area. Exposure to malaria vectors by IgG serology with SGE is a proxy to approximate vector biting in children and identify risk factors for vector exposure. |
Increased all-cause mortality following occupational injury: a comparison of two states
Boden LI , Asfaw A , Busey A , Tripodis Y , O'Leary PK , Applebaum KM , Stokes AC , Fox MP . Occup Environ Med 2022 79 (12) 816-823 OBJECTIVES: To measure the impact of lost-time occupational injuries on all-cause mortality in Washington State and, using the same data elements and study design, to determine whether the estimated impact was similar to previous estimates for New Mexico. METHODS: We linked injuries in the Washington workers' compensation system with Social Security Administration data on earnings and mortality. We estimated Cox survival models of mortality for women and men with lost-time compared with medical-only injuries, adjusting for age, pre-injury earnings and industry. We used quantitative bias analysis to account for confounding by pre-injury smoking and obesity. RESULTS: The estimated mortality HR was 1.24 for women (95% CI 1.21 to 1.28) and 1.22 for men (95% CI 1.20 to 1.24). After adjusting for unmeasured pre-injury smoking and obesity, the estimated HR for women was 1.10, 95% simulation interval (SI) 1.00 to 1.21; for men, it was 1.15, 95% SI 1.04 to 1.27. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality for Washington workers with lost-time injuries was higher than for those with medical-only injuries. Estimated HRs for Washington were consistent with those previously estimated for New Mexico, a less populous state with lower median wages and a different workers' compensation insurance mechanism. This suggests that the relationship between workplace injury and long-term mortality may be generalisable to other US states. These findings support greater efforts to enhance safety and to investigate factors that improve postinjury employment opportunities and long-term health. This association should be examined in additional locations, with different study conditions, or using additional data on pre-injury risk factors. |
Extreme heat exposure: Access and barriers to cooling centers - Maricopa and Yuma Counties, Arizona, 2010-2020
Mallen E , Roach M , Fox L , Gillespie E , Watkins L , Hondula DM , Vaidyanathan A , Manangan A , Perkins AN , Schramm PJ . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022 71 (24) 781-785 Extreme heat exposure increases the risk for heat-related illnesses (HRIs) and deaths, and comprehensive strategies to prevent HRIs are increasingly important in a warming climate (1). An estimated 702 HRI-associated deaths and 67,512 HRI-associated emergency department visits occur in the United States each year (2,3). In 2020, Phoenix and Yuma, Arizona, experienced a record 145 and 148 days, respectively, of temperatures >100°F (37.8°C), and a record 522 heat-related deaths occurred in the state. HRIs are preventable through individual and community-based strategies*(,)(†); cooling centers,(§) typically air-conditioned or cooled buildings designated as sites to provide respite and safety during extreme heat, have been established in Maricopa and Yuma counties to reduce HRIs among at-risk populations, such as older adults. This analysis examined trends in HRIs by age during 2010-2020 for Maricopa and Yuma counties and data from a survey of older adults related to cooling center availability and use in Yuma County during 2018-2019. Data from CDC's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) were also used to overlay cooling center locations with SVI scores. During 2010-2020, heat days, defined as days with an excessive heat warning issued by the National Weather Service Phoenix Office,(¶) for any part of Maricopa and Yuma counties (4), increased in both Maricopa County (1.18 days per year) and Yuma County (1.71 days per year) on average. Adults aged ≥65 years had higher rates of HRI hospitalization compared with those aged <65 years. In a survey of 39 adults aged ≥65 years in Yuma County, 44% reported recent HRI symptoms, and 18% reported electricity cost always or sometimes constrained their use of air conditioning. Barriers to cooling center access among older adults include awareness of location and transportation. Collaboration among diverse community sectors and health profession education programs is important to better prepare for rising heat exposure and HRIs. States and communities can implement adaptation and evaluation strategies to mitigate and assess heat risk, such as the use of cooling centers to protect communities disproportionately affected by HRI during periods of high temperatures. |
Role Attainment in Emerging Adulthood: Subjective Evaluation by Male Adolescents and Adults with Duchenne and Becker Muscular Dystrophy1.
Peay HL , Do BT , Khosla N , Paramsothy P , Erickson SW , Lamb MM , Whitehead N , Fox DJ , Pandya S , Kinnett K , Wolff J , Howard JF . J Neuromuscul Dis 2022 9 (3) 447-456 BACKGROUND: Youth with Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy (DBMD) experience challenges in attaining adult roles, which may impact quality of life. New interventions and treatments may facilitate adult role attainment through improved function. Historical data on adult role attainment is important to assess the impact of new interventions on teens and young adults with DBMD. This study assesses medical knowledge, independence and employment, and relationships among adolescents and young adults with DBMD. METHODS: This study uses data from a 2013 Muscular Dystrophy Surveillance, Tracking, and Research Network (MD STARnet) survey on adult transition. Males with DBMD aged 16-30 years were included. RESULTS: Sixty-five of 258 eligible males participated; we report results on 60 participants with an MD STARnet case definition of DMD or BMD. Individuals with BMD reported higher rates than those with DMD of frequently staying home without supervision (50% BMD; 14% DMD), independently performing daily physical needs (93% BMD; 7% DMD) and being employed full or part time (33% BMD; 4% DMD). Most participants understood medication and physical therapy goals; less than half indicated being often or always responsible for scheduling DMBD-related management and refilling medications. Most had not been in a romantic relationship but reported desiring such relationships. CONCLUSIONS: Our data reinforce the impact of DMD (and to a lesser extent, BMD) on transition to adult roles. These results provide an important historical comparator for teen and adult patients who are trying new interventions and therapies. Such data are important for assessing the quality-of-life impact of new treatments and to inform support and training programs for people with DBMD as they transition to new adult roles and responsibilities. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022 119 (15) e2113561119 SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action. |
Policy and practice of checking vaccination status at school in 2018, a global overview
Sadigh K , Fox G , Khetsuriani N , Gao H , Shendale S , Ward K . Vaccine 2022 40 (16) 2432-2441 BACKGROUND: Checking vaccination status at school is widely recommended as a strategy to strengthen routine childhood vaccination coverage. Documentation of approaches, challenges, strengths, and impact of this strategy in a variety of contexts is key to enhancing adoption and implementation. However, there is limited information about the prevalence of policies and the implementation of checking vaccination status at school globally. METHODS: A one-time supplementary survey was circulated with the annual World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) Joint Reporting Form in 2019 to all WHO member states and non-member state reporting entities. Additional publicly available country-level data, including primary school enrollment, home-based record (HBR) ownership, and World Bank income classification were linked to the supplementary survey responses, which were descriptively analyzed. RESULTS: We received survey responses from 130 of the 194 (67%) WHO member states and 15 non-member state reporting entities. Almost half (46%) of the respondents reported having a law requiring proof of vaccination to enter at least one level of education, and 60% of the respondents reported having a law that requires checking vaccination status at school in 2018. Three-quarters of the respondents (77%) reported the practice of routinely checking vaccination status at school. Both laws and the practice of checking were more common in the WHO Region of the Americas and the WHO European Region, and in high- and upper-middle-income countries. Individual HBR was the document most frequently checked. Catch-up vaccination occurred most frequently at health centers. Evaluation of checking vaccination status at school to determine what has worked and its effect was infrequently reported. CONCLUSION: Despite widespread implementation of checking vaccination status at school in 2018, documentation of the experiences in planning and implementing this strategy, and its effects remains sparse, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. |
Time to Diagnosis of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Remains Unchanged: Findings from the Muscular Dystrophy Surveillance, Tracking, and Research Network (MD STARnet), 2000-2015.
Thomas S , Conway KM , Fapo O , Street N , Mathews KD , Mann J , Romitti PA , Soim A , Westfield C , Fox DJ , Ciafaloni E . Muscle Nerve 2022 66 (2) 193-197 INTRODUCTION/AIMS: With current and anticipated disease-modifying treatments including gene therapy, an early diagnosis for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is crucial to assure maximum benefit. In 2009 a study from the Muscular Dystrophy Surveillance, Tracking, and Research Network (MD STARnet) showed an average diagnosis age of five years among males with DMD born from 1/1/1982 to 12/31/2000. Initiatives were implemented by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and patient organizations to reduce time to diagnosis. We conducted a follow up study in a surveillance cohort born after 1/1/2000 to determine whether there has been an improvement in time to diagnosis. METHODS: We assessed the age of diagnosis among males with DMD born from 1/1/2000-12/31/2015 using data collected by six US MD STARnet surveillance sites (Colorado, Iowa, Western New York State, Piedmont region of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah). The analytic cohort included 221 males with definite or probable DMD diagnosis without a documented family history. We computed frequency counts and percentages for categorical variables; and means, medians, and standard deviations (SD) for continuous variables. RESULTS: The mean [median] ages in years of diagnostic milestones were: first signs 2.7 [2.0], first creatine kinase (CK) 4.6 [4.6], DNA/muscle biopsy testing 4.9 [4.8], and time from first signs to diagnostic confirmation 2.2 [1.4]. DISCUSSION: The time interval between first signs of DMD and diagnosis remains unchanged at 2.2 years. This results in lost opportunities for timely genetic counseling, implementation of standards of care, initiation of glucocorticoids and participation in clinical trials. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. |
Correctional-Facility-Outbreak-Associated COVID-19 Cases Among Asymptomatic Persons Identified Through Universal Testing: Vermont, 2020.
Pringle JC , Fritch WM , Boire Y , Meddaugh P , Prue T , Dunsmore B , Fox H , Reid H , Robinson ME , Kwit N . J Correct Health Care 2022 28 (3) 155-163 On April 6, 2020, a confirmed COVID-19 case in a correctional facility employee (Staff A) was reported to the Vermont Department of Health (VDH). Staff A worked in the facility while symptomatic, without reporting symptoms, for 10 days. VDH and the facility conducted two facility-wide testing events, implemented symptom monitoring, and initiated contact tracing. All 197 incarcerated persons and 115 (71%) staff were tested for SARS-CoV-2; 45 (23%) incarcerated persons and 17 (10%) staff had positive results (confirmed case), of whom 37 (82%) incarcerated persons and 1 (6%) staff had asymptomatic infections. Case detection enabled isolation of incarcerated persons and staff, work exclusion of staff with COVID-19, and quarantine of staff and incarcerated persons who had close contact with persons with COVID-19. Broad-based SARS-CoV-2 testing identified more cases than symptom monitoring. |
The impact of 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine introduction on invasive disease in Fiji
Reyburn R , Tuivaga EJ , Ratu FT , Dunne EM , Nand D , Kado J , Jenkins K , Tikoduadua L , Jenney A , Howden BP , Ballard SA , Fox K , Devi R , Satzke C , Rafai E , Kama M , Flasche S , Mulholland EK , Russell FM . Lancet Reg Health West Pac 2022 20 100352 BACKGROUND: In 2012, Fiji introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10). We assessed the impact of PCV10 on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), probable bacterial or pneumococcal meningitis (PBPM), meningitis and sepsis 3-5 years post-introduction. METHODS: Laboratory-confirmed IPD and PBPM cases were extracted from national laboratory records. ICD-10-AM coded all-cause meningitis and sepsis cases were extracted from national hospitalisation records. Incidence rate ratios were used to compare outcomes pre/post-PCV10, stratified by age groups: 1-23m, 2-4y, 5-9y, 10-19y, 20-54y, ≥55y. To account for different detection and serotyping methods in the pre-and post-PCV10 period, a Bayesian inference model estimated serotype-specific changes in IPD, using pneumococcal carriage and surveillance data. FINDINGS: There were 423 IPD, 1,029 PBPM, 1,391 all-cause meningitis and 7,611 all-cause sepsis cases. Five years post-PCV10 introduction, IPD declined by 60% (95%CI: 37%, 76%) in children 1-23m months old, and in age groups 2-4y, 5-9y, 10-19y although confidence intervals spanned zero. PBPM declined by 36% (95%CI: 21%, 48%) among children 1-23 months old, and in all other age groups, although some confidence intervals spanned zero. Among children <5y of age, PCV10-type IPD declined by 83% (95%CI; 70%, 90%) and with no evidence of change in non-PCV10-type IPD (9%, 95%CI; -69, 43%). There was no change in all-cause meningitis or sepsis. Post-PCV10, the most common serotypes in vaccine age-eligible and non-age eligible people were serotypes 8 and 23B, and 3 and 7F, respectively. INTERPRETATIONS: Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of PCV10 against IPD in a country in the Asia-Pacific of which there is a paucity of data. FUNDING: This study was support by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Australian Government and Fiji Health Sector Support Program (FHSSP). FHSSP is implemented by Abt JTA on behalf of the Australian Government. |
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