Last data update: Apr 22, 2024. (Total: 46599 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 32 Records) |
Query Trace: Young PW [original query] |
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Use of undetectable viral load to improve population-based survey estimates of known HIV-positive status and antiretroviral treatment coverage in Kenya (preprint)
Young PW , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Wamicwe J , Mukui I , Kim AA , Waruru A , Zeh C , Kretzschmar ME , De Cock KM . medRxiv 2019 19002592 Introduction Underreporting of prior HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use based on self-report is well-documented in national surveys. Antiretroviral (ARV) testing has been used to improve survey estimates, by reclassifying respondents with ARVs detected in blood as previously-diagnosed and on ART. Viral load testing, which is more affordable and more routinely available than ARV testing, is also an indicator of ART use. We examined the impact of adjusting estimated knowledge of HIV-positive status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use based on self-report with biomarkers for antiretroviral (ARV) drug detection and undetectable viral load (UVL).Methods We reclassified HIV-positive participants aged 15-64 years in the 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) that were unaware of their HIV-positive status by self-report as aware and on ART if either ARVs were detected or viral load was undetectable (<550 copies/mL) on dried blood spots. We compared self-report to adjustments for ARVs measurement, UVL, or both. We calculated measures of accuracy for UVL and UVL & ARV-adjusted versions of knowledge of status and ART use versus ARV-adjusted self-report as a reference standard.Results Among 235 of 648 HIV-positive respondents with UVL, self-reported status was: 65 unaware (28.7%), 25 aware, not on ART (9.9%) and 145 aware, on ART (61.3%). Treatment coverage among all HIV-positive respondents increased from 31.8% for self-report to 42.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 37.4-47.8] based on ARV detection alone, to 42.8% (95% CI 37.9-47.8) when ARV-adjusted, 46.2% (95% CI 41.3-51.1) when UVL-adjusted and 48.8% (95% CI 43.9-53.8) when adjusted for ARV and UVL. Awareness of positive status increased from 46.9% for self-report to 56.2% (95% CI 50.7-61.6) when ARV-adjusted, 57.5% (95% CI 51.9-63.0) when UVL-adjusted, and 59.8% (95% CI 54.2-65.1) when adjusted for ARV and UVL. Sensitivity and specificity of UVL-adjusted known HIV-positive status were 95.8% and 91.3%, and of UVL-adjusted ART use were 93.0% and 88.8% respectively, versus ARV-adjusted self-report.Conclusions Undetectable viral load may be a useful adjunct or alternative to ARV detection for adjusting knowledge of status and ART use indicators in population-based surveys.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThe 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey has been supported by the President?s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) under the terms of #PS001805, GH000069, and PS001814. The survey was also funded in part by support from the Global Fund, World Bank, and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS.Author DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesAny clinical trials involved have been registered with an ICMJE-approved registry such as ClinicalTrials.gov and the trial ID is included in the manuscript.Not ApplicableI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant Equator, ICMJE or other checklist(s) as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData for KAIS 2012 are available upon request from NASCOP by emailing head@nascop.or.ke, or from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics by requesting at http://statistics.knbs.or.ke/nada/index.php |
%svy_freqs: A Generic SAS Macro for Creating Publication-Quality Three-Way Cross-Tabulations
Muthusi J , Young PW , Mwalili S . J Open Res Softw 2021 9 (1) Cross-tabulations are a simple but important tool for understanding the distribution of socio-demographic characteristics among participants in epidemiological studies. We developed a generic SAS macro, %svy_freqs, to create publication-quality tables from cross-tabulations between a factor and a by-group variable given a third variable using survey or non-survey data. The macro also performs two-way cross-tabulations and provides extra features not available in existing procedures such as ability to incorporate parameters for survey design and replication-based variance estimation methods, performing validation checks for input parameters, transparently formatting variable values from character into numeric and allowing for generalizability. We demonstrate the macro using the 2013-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a complex survey designed to assess the health and nutritional status of adults and children in the United States. |
Measuring the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection among persons living with HIV and healthcare workers and its impact on service delivery in Mozambique: protocol of a prospective cohort study
De Schacht C , Nhacule E , Belo C , Young PW , Bhatt N , Júnior F , Pimentel De Gusmão E , Muquingue H , Muteerwa A , Bila D , Ouenzar MA , Madede T , Cumbane R , Amorim G , Viegas E . BMJ Open 2023 13 (6) e068988 INTRODUCTION: As COVID-19 continues to spread globally and within Mozambique, its impact among immunosuppressed persons, specifically persons living with HIV (PLHIV), and on the health system is unknown in the country. The 'COVid and hIV' (COVIV) study aims to investigate: (1) the seroprevalence and seroincidence of SARS-CoV-2 among PLHIV and healthcare workers providing HIV services; (2) knowledge, attitudes, practices and perceptions regarding SARS-CoV-2 infection; (3) the pandemic's impact on HIV care continuum outcomes and (4) facility level compliance with national COVID-19 guidelines. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A multimethod study will be conducted in a maximum of 11 health facilities across Mozambique, comprising four components: (1) a cohort study among PLHIV and healthcare workers providing HIV services to determine the seroprevalence and seroincidence of SARS-CoV-2, (2) a structured survey to assess knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and practices regarding COVID-19 disease, (3) analysis of aggregated patient data to evaluate retention in HIV services among PLHIV, (4) an assessment of facility implementation of infection prevention and control measures. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the National Health Bioethics Committee, and institutional review boards of implementing partners. Study findings will be discussed with local and national health authorities and key stakeholders and will be disseminated in clinical and scientific forums. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05022407. |
Estimation of HIV-1 incidence using a testing history-based method; analysis from the population-based HIV impact assessment survey data in 12 African countries
Gurley SA , Stupp PW , Fellows IE , Parekh BS , Young PW , Shiraishi RW , Sullivan PS , Voetsch AC . J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2023 92 (3) 189-196 BACKGROUND: Estimating HIV incidence is essential to monitoring progress in sub-Saharan African nations toward global epidemic control. One method for incidence estimation is to test nationally representative samples using laboratory-based incidence assays. An alternative method based on reported HIV testing history and the proportion of undiagnosed infections has recently been described. METHODS: We applied an HIV incidence estimation method which uses history of testing to nationally representative cross-sectional survey data from 12 sub-Saharan African nations with varying country-specific HIV prevalence. We compared these estimates with those derived from laboratory-based incidence assays. Participants were tested for HIV using the national rapid test algorithm and asked about prior HIV testing, date and result of their most recent test, and date of antiretroviral therapy initiation. RESULTS: The testing history-based method consistently produced results that are comparable and strongly correlated with estimates produced using a laboratory-based HIV incidence assay (ρ = 0.85). The testing history-based method produced incidence estimates that were more precise compared with the biomarker-based method. The testing history-based method identified sex-, age-, and geographic location-specific differences in incidence that were not detected using the biomarker-based method. CONCLUSIONS: The testing history-based method estimates are more precise and can produce age-specific and sex-specific incidence estimates that are informative for programmatic decisions. The method also allows for comparisons of the HIV transmission rate and other components of HIV incidence among and within countries. The testing history-based method is a useful tool for estimating and validating HIV incidence from cross-sectional survey data. |
HIV incidence, recent HIV infection, and associated factors, Kenya, 2007-2018
Young PW , Musingila P , Kingwara L , Voetsch D , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Bulterys M , Kim AA , Bronson MA , Parekh B , Dobbs T , Patel H , Reid G , Achia T , Keter A , Mwalili S , Ogollah FM , Ondondo R , Longwe H , Chege D , Bowen N , Umuro M , Ngugi C , Justman J , Cherutich P , De Cock KM . AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses 2022 39 (2) 57-67 BACKGROUND: Nationally-representative surveys provide an opportunity to assess trends in recent HIV infection based on assays for recent HIV infection. METHODS: We assessed HIV incidence in Kenya in 2018 and trends in recent HIV infection among adolescents and adults in Kenya using nationally representative household surveys conducted in 2007, 2012 and 2018. To assess trends, we defined a recent HIV infection testing algorithm (RITA) that classified as recently infected (<12 months) those HIV-positive participants that were recent on the HIV-1 limiting antigen (LAg)-avidity assay without evidence of antiretroviral use. We assessed factors associated with recent and long-term (≥12 months) HIV infection versus no infection using a multinomial logit model while accounting for complex survey design. FINDINGS: Of 1,523 HIV-positive participants in 2018, 11 were classified as recent. Annual HIV incidence was 0.14% in 2018 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.057-0.23), representing 35,900 (95% CI 16,300-55,600) new infections per year in Kenya among persons aged 15-64 years. The percentage of HIV infections that were determined to be recent was similar in 2007 and 2012 but fell significantly from 2012 to 2018 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=0.31, p<0.001). Compared to no HIV infection, being aged 25-34 versus 35-64 years (aOR=4.2, 95% CI 1.4-13), having more lifetime sex partners (aOR=5.2, 95% CI 1.6-17 for 2-3 partners and aOR=8.6, 95% CI 2.8-26 for ≥4 partners versus 0-1 partners), and never having tested for HIV (aOR=4.1, 95% CI 1.5-11) were independently associated with recent HIV infection. INTERPRETATION: Though HIV remains a public health priority in Kenya, HIV incidence estimates and trends in recent HIV infection support a significant decrease in new HIV infections from 2012 to 2018, a period of rapid expansion in HIV diagnosis, prevention, and treatment. |
All-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for Kisumu County: a comparison with Kenya, low-and middle-income countries
Waruiru W , Oramisi V , Sila A , Onyango D , Waruru A , Mwangome MN , Young PW , Muuo S , Nyagah LM , Ollongo J , Ngugi C , Rutherford GW . BMC Public Health 2022 22 (1) 1828 BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude and causes of mortality at national and sub-national levels for countries is critical in facilitating evidence-based prioritization of public health response. We provide comparable cause of death data from Kisumu County, a high HIV and malaria-endemic county in Kenya, and compared them with Kenya and low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We analyzed data from a mortuary-based study at two of the largest hospital mortuaries in Kisumu. Mortality data through 2019 for Kenya and all LMICs were downloaded from the Global Health Data Exchange. We provided age-standardized rates for comparisons of all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates, and distribution of deaths by demographics and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) classifications. RESULTS: The all-cause age-standardized mortality rate (SMR) was significantly higher in Kisumu compared to Kenya and LMICs (1118 vs. 659 vs. 547 per 100,000 population, respectively). Among women, the all-cause SMR in Kisumu was almost twice that of Kenya and double the LMICs rate (1150 vs. 606 vs. 518 per 100,000 population respectively). Among men, the all-cause SMR in Kisumu was approximately one and a half times higher than in Kenya and nearly double that of LMICs (1089 vs. 713 vs. 574 per 100,000 population). In Kisumu and LMICs non-communicable diseases accounted for most (48.0 and 58.1% respectively) deaths, while in Kenya infectious diseases accounted for the majority (49.9%) of deaths. From age 10, mortality rates increased with age across all geographies. The age-specific mortality rate among those under 1 in Kisumu was nearly twice that of Kenya and LMICs (6058 vs. 3157 and 3485 per 100,000 population, respectively). Mortality from injuries among men was at least one and half times that of women in all geographies. CONCLUSION: There is a notable difference in the patterns of mortality rates across the three geographical areas. The double burden of mortality from GBD Group I and Group II diseases with high infant mortality in Kisumu can guide prioritization of public health interventions in the county. This study demonstrates the importance of establishing reliable vital registry systems at sub-national levels as the mortality dynamics and trends are not homogeneous. |
Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the Mozambican population: a cross-sectional Serologic study in three cities, July-August 2020.
Arnaldo P , Mabunda N , Young PW , Tran T , Sitoe N , Chelene I , Nhanombe A , Isamael N , Júnior A , Cubula B , Inlamea OF , Gudo E , Jani IV . Clin Infect Dis 2022 75 S285-S293 BACKGROUND: The extent of population exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was uncertain in many African countries during the onset of the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study and randomly selected and surveyed general population and occupational groups from July 6 to August 24, 2020, in three cities in Mozambique. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 specific immunoglobulins M and G antibodies were measured using a point-of-care rapid test. The prevalence was weighted for population (by age, sex, and city) and adjusted for test sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: A total of 21,183 participants, including 11,143 from the general population and 10,040 from occupational groups, were included across all three cities. General population seropositivity (immunoglobulins M or G) prevalence was 3.0% (95% CI, 1.0-6.6) in Pemba, 2.1% (95% CI, 1.2-3.3) in Maputo City, and 0.9% (95% CI, 0.1-1.9) in Quelimane. The prevalence in occupational groups ranged from 2.8% (95% CI, 1.3-5.2) to 5.9% (95% CI, 4.3-8.0) in Pemba, 0.3% (95% CI, 0.0-2.2) to 4.0% (95% CI, 2.6-5.7) in Maputo City, 0.0% (95% CI, 0.0-0.7) to 6.6% (95% CI, 3.8-10.5) in Quelimane, and showed variations between the groups tested. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 was extensive during the first pandemic wave, and transmission may have been more intense among occupational groups. These data have been of utmost importance to inform public health intervention to control and respond to pandemic in Mozambique. PREVIOUS PRESENTATIONS OF FINDINGS: Results from this study were presented (in Portuguese) at the Mozambican Jornadas Nacionais de Saúde in Maputo, Mozambique on Aug 10, 2021 (abstract #108, title, Prevalência da exposição ao novo coronavírus em três cidades de Moçambique, Julho-Agosto de 2020). |
Evaluation of the performance of Oraquick Rapid HIV-1/2 test among decedents in Kisumu, Kenya
Opollo V , Nyakeriga E , Kingwara L , Sila A , Oguta M , Oyaro B , Onyango D , Mboya FO , Waruru A , Musingila P , Mwangome M , Nyagah LM , Ngugi C , Sava S , Waruiru W , Young PW , Junghae M . J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2022 89 (3) 282-287 BACKGROUND: Estimating cause-related mortality among the dead is not common, yet for clinical and public health purposes, a lot can be learnt from the dead. HIV/AIDS accounted for the third most frequent cause of deaths in Kenya; 39.7 deaths per 100,000 population in 2019. OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 has previously been validated on oral fluid and implemented as a screening assay for HIV self-testing in Kenya among living subjects. We assessed the feasibility and diagnostic accuracy of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 for HIV screening among decedents. METHODS: Trained morticians collected oral fluid from 132 preembalmed and postembalmed decedents aged >18 months at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Teaching and Referral Hospital mortuary in western Kenya and tested for HIV using OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2. Test results were compared with those obtained using the national HIV Testing Services algorithm on matched preembalming whole blood specimens as a gold standard (Determine HIV and First Response HIV 1-2-O). We calculated positive predictive values, negative predictive values, area under the curve, and sensitivity and specificity of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 compared with the national HTS algorithm. RESULTS: OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 had similar sensitivity of 92.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 75.7 to 99.1] on preembalmed and postembalmed samples compared with the gold standard. Specificity was 97.1% (95% CI: 91.9 to 99.4) and 95.2% (95% CI: 89.2 to 98.4) preembalming and postembalming, respectively. Preembalming and postembalming positive predictive value was 89.3% (95% CI: 71.8 to 97.7) and 83.3% (95% CI: 65.3 to 94.4), respectively. The area under the curve preembalming and postembalming was 94.9% (95% CI: 89.6 to 100) and 93.9% (95% CI: 88.5 to 99.4), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed a relatively high-performance sensitivity and specificity of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 test among decedents, similar to those observed among living subjects. OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 presents a convenient and less invasive screening test for surveillance of HIV among decedents within a mortuary setting. |
Leading causes of death and high mortality rates in an HIV endemic setting (Kisumu county, Kenya, 2019)
Waruru A , Onyango D , Nyagah L , Sila A , Waruiru W , Sava S , Oele E , Nyakeriga E , Muuo SW , Kiboye J , Musingila PK , van der Sande MAB , Massawa T , Rogena EA , DeCock KM , Young PW . PLoS One 2022 17 (1) e0261162 BACKGROUND: In resource-limited settings, underlying causes of death (UCOD) often are not ascertained systematically, leading to unreliable mortality statistics. We reviewed medical charts to establish UCOD for decedents at two high volume mortuaries in Kisumu County, Kenya, and compared ascertained UCOD to those notified to the civil registry. METHODS: Medical experts trained in COD certification examined medical charts and ascertained causes of death for 456 decedents admitted to the mortuaries from April 16 through July 12, 2019. Decedents with unknown HIV status or who had tested HIV-negative >90 days before the date of death were tested for HIV. We calculated annualized all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates grouped according to global burden of disease (GBD) categories and separately for deaths due to HIV/AIDS and expressed estimated deaths per 100,000 population. We compared notified to ascertained UCOD using Cohen's Kappa (κ) and assessed for the independence of proportions using Pearson's chi-squared test. FINDINGS: The four leading UCOD were HIV/AIDS (102/442 [23.1%]), hypertensive disease (41/442 [9.3%]), other cardiovascular diseases (23/442 [5.2%]), and cancer (20/442 [4.5%]). The all-cause mortality rate was 1,086/100,000 population. The highest cause-specific mortality was in GBD category II (noncommunicable diseases; 516/100,000), followed by GBD I (communicable, perinatal, maternal, and nutritional; 513/100,000), and III (injuries; 56/100,000). The HIV/AIDS mortality rate was 251/100,000 population. The proportion of deaths due to GBD II causes was higher among females (51.9%) than male decedents (42.1%; p = 0.039). Conversely, more men/boys (8.6%) than women/girls (2.1%) died of GBD III causes (p = 0.002). Most of the records with available recorded and ascertained UCOD (n = 236), 167 (70.8%) had incorrectly recorded UCOD, and agreement between notified and ascertained UCOD was poor (29.2%; κ = 0.26). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from infectious diseases, especially HIV/AIDS, is high in Kisumu County, but there is a shift toward higher mortality from noncommunicable diseases, possibly reflecting an epidemiologic transition and improving HIV outcomes. The epidemiologic transition suggests the need for increased focus on controlling noncommunicable conditions despite the high communicable disease burden. The weak agreement between notified and ascertained UCOD could lead to substantial inaccuracies in mortality statistics, which wholly depend on death notifications. |
Causes of death in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected children in the child health and mortality prevention surveillance study-Kenya
Onyango DO , Akelo V , van der Sande MAB , Ridzon R , Were JA , Agaya JA , Oele EA , Wandiga S , Igunza AK , Young PW , Blau DM , Joseph RH , Yuen CM , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Tippet-Barr BA . AIDS 2021 36 (1) 59-68 OBJECTIVES: Describe the causes of death among infants and children <5 years stratified by HIV status. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of causes of death ascertained through minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) in the Kenya Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance site. METHODS: We included decedents aged 28 days to <5 years, whose death was reported within 36 hours, underwent MITS, and had HIV test results and causes of death determined. MITS specimens were tested using Taqman Array Cards, culture, cytology, histopathology and immunohistochemistry and HIV polymerase chain reaction. A panel evaluated epidemiologic, clinical, verbal autopsy and laboratory data to assign causes of death using ICD10 guidelines. Causes of death and etiological agents were stratified by HIV status. RESULTS: Of 176 included decedents, 14% (n = 25) were HIV-infected, median viral load was 112,205 copies per milliliter (interquartile range [IQR] = 9,349-2,670,143). HIV-disease (96%; n = 24) and malnutrition (23%; n = 34) were the leading underlying causes of death in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected decedents, respectively. Malnutrition was more frequent in the causal chain of HIV-infected (56%; n = 14) than HIV-uninfected decedents (31%; n = 49) (p-value = 0.03). Viral pneumonia was twice as common in HIV-infected (50%; n = 9) than HIV-uninfected decedents (22%; n = 7) (p-value = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Nearly all HIV-infected decedents' underlying cause of death was HIV disease which was associated with malnutrition. Our findings underscore the need for strengthening early identification and management of HIV-infected children. Prevention, early diagnosis and treatment of malnutrition could be instrumental in improving the survival of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected children. |
High HIV prevalence among decedents received by two high-volume mortuaries in Kisumu, western Kenya, 2019
Onyango DO , van der Sande MAB , Musingila P , Kinywa E , Opollo V , Oyaro B , Nyakeriga E , Waruru A , Waruiru W , Mwangome M , Macharia T , Young PW , Junghae M , Ngugi C , De Cock KM , Rutherford GW . PLoS One 2021 16 (7) e0253516 BACKGROUND: Accurate data on HIV-related mortality are necessary to evaluate the impact of HIV interventions. In low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), mortality data obtained through civil registration are often of poor quality. Though not commonly conducted, mortuary surveillance is a potential complementary source of data on HIV-associated mortality. METHODS: During April-July 2019, we assessed HIV prevalence, the attributable fraction among the exposed, and the population attributable fraction among decedents received by two high-volume mortuaries in Kisumu County, Kenya, where HIV prevalence in the adult population was estimated at 18% in 2019 with high ART coverage (76%). Stillbirths were excluded. The two mortuaries receive 70% of deaths notified to the Kisumu East civil death registry; this registry captures 45% of deaths notified in Kisumu County. We conducted hospital chart reviews to determine the HIV status of decedents. Decedents without documented HIV status, including those dead on arrival, were tested using HIV antibody tests or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) consistent with national HIV testing guidelines. Decedents aged less than 15 years were defined as children. We estimated annual county deaths by applying weights that incorporated the study period, coverage of deaths, and mortality rates observed in the study. RESULTS: The two mortuaries received a total of 1,004 decedents during the study period, of which 95.1% (955/1004) were available for study; 89.1% (851/955) of available decedents were enrolled of whom 99.4% (846/851) had their HIV status available from medical records and post-mortem testing. The overall population-based, age- and sex-adjusted mortality rate was 12.4 per 1,000 population. The unadjusted HIV prevalence among decedents was 28.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.5-31.6). The age- and sex-adjusted mortality rate in the HIV-infected population (40.7/1000 population) was four times higher than in the HIV-uninfected population (10.2/1000 population). Overall, the attributable fraction among the HIV-exposed was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.66-0.76) while the HIV population attributable fraction was 0.17 (95% CI: 0.14-0.20). In children the attributable fraction among the exposed and population attributable fraction were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89-0.94) and 0.11 (95% CI: 0.08-0.15), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Over one quarter (28.5%) of decedents received by high-volume mortuaries in western Kenya were HIV-positive; overall, HIV was considered the cause of death in 17% of the population (19% of adults and 11% of children). Despite substantial scale-up of HIV services, HIV disease remains a leading cause of death in western Kenya. Despite progress, increased efforts remain necessary to prevent and treat HIV infection and disease. |
Prevalence of male circumcision in four culturally non-circumcising counties in western Kenya after 10 years of program implementation from 2008 to 2019
Odoyo-June E , Davis S , Owuor N , Laube C , Wambua J , Musingila P , Young PW , Aoko A , Agot K , Joseph R , Mwandi Z , Ojiambo V , Lucas T , Toledo C , Wanyonyi A . PLoS One 2021 16 (7) e0254140 INTRODUCTION: Kenya started implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention in 2008 and adopted the use of decision makers program planning tool version 2 (DMPPT2) in 2016, to model the impact of circumcisions performed annually on the population prevalence of male circumcision (MC) in the subsequent years. Results of initial DMPPT2 modeling included implausible MC prevalence estimates, of up to 100%, for age bands whose sustained high uptake of VMMC pointed to unmet needs. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional survey among adolescents and men aged 10-29 years to determine the population level MC prevalence, guide target setting for achieving the goal of 80% MC prevalence and for validating DMPPT2 modelled estimates. METHODS: Beginning July to September 2019, a total of 3,569 adolescents and men aged 10-29 years from households in Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori Counties were interviewed and examined to establish the proportion already circumcised medically or non-medically. We measured agreement between self-reported and physically verified circumcision status and computed circumcision prevalence by age band and County. All statistical were test done at 5% level of significance. RESULTS: The observed MC prevalence for 15-29-year-old men was above 75% in all four counties; Homa Bay 75.6% (95% CI [69.0-81.2]), Kisumu 77.9% (95% CI [73.1-82.1]), Siaya 80.3% (95% CI [73.7-85.5]), and Migori 85.3% (95% CI [75.3-91.7]) but were 0.9-12.4% lower than DMPPT2-modelled estimates. For young adolescents 10-14 years, the observed prevalence ranged from 55.3% (95% CI [40.2-69.5]) in Migori to 74.9% (95% CI [68.8-80.2]) in Siaya and were 25.1-32.9% lower than DMMPT 2 estimates. Nearly all respondents (95.5%) consented to physical verification of their circumcision status with an agreement rate of 99.2% between self-reported and physically verified MC status (kappa agreement p-value<0.0001). CONCLUSION: This survey revealed overestimation of MC prevalence from DMPPT2-model compared to the observed population MC prevalence and provided new reference data for setting realistic program targets and re-calibrating inputs into DMPPT2. Periodic population-based MC prevalence surveys, especially for established programs, can help reconcile inconsistencies between VMMC program uptake data and modeled MC prevalence estimates which are based on the number of procedures reported in the program annually. |
Where Are the Newly Diagnosed HIV Positives in Kenya Time to Consider Geo-Spatially Guided Targeting at a Finer Scale to Reach the "First 90"
Waruru A , Wamicwe J , Mwangi J , Achia TNO , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Ng'ang'a L , Miruka F , Yegon P , Kimanga D , Tobias JL , Young PW , De Cock KM , Tylleskär T . Front Public Health 2021 9 503555 Background: The UNAIDS 90-90-90 Fast-Track targets provide a framework for assessing coverage of HIV testing services (HTS) and awareness of HIV status - the "first 90." In Kenya, the bulk of HIV testing targets are aligned to the five highest HIV-burden counties. However, we do not know if most of the new HIV diagnoses are in these five highest-burden counties or elsewhere. Methods: We analyzed facility-level HTS data in Kenya from 1 October 2015 to 30 September 2016 to assess the spatial distribution of newly diagnosed HIV-positives. We used the Moran's Index (Moran's I) to assess global and local spatial auto-correlation of newly diagnosed HIV-positive tests and Kulldorff spatial scan statistics to detect hotspots of newly diagnosed HIV-positive tests. For aggregated data, we used Kruskal-Wallis equality-of-populations non-parametric rank test to compare absolute numbers across classes. Results: Out of 4,021 HTS sites, 3,969 (98.7%) had geocodes available. Most facilities (3,034, 76.4%), were not spatially autocorrelated for the number of newly diagnosed HIV-positives. For the rest, clustering occurred as follows; 438 (11.0%) were HH, 66 (1.7%) HL, 275 (6.9%) LH, and 156 (3.9%) LL. Of the HH sites, 301 (68.7%) were in high HIV-burden counties. Over half of 123 clusters with a significantly high number of newly diagnosed HIV-infected persons, 73(59.3%) were not in the five highest HIV-burden counties. Clusters with a high number of newly diagnosed persons had twice the number of positives per 1,000,000 tests than clusters with lower numbers (29,856 vs. 14,172). Conclusions: Although high HIV-burden counties contain clusters of sites with a high number of newly diagnosed HIV-infected persons, we detected many such clusters in low-burden counties as well. To expand HTS where most needed and reach the "first 90" targets, geospatial analyses and mapping make it easier to identify and describe localized epidemic patterns in a spatially dispersed epidemic like Kenya's, and consequently, reorient and prioritize HTS strategies. |
A new method for estimating HIV incidence from a single cross-sectional survey
Fellows IE , Shiraishi RW , Cherutich P , Achia T , Young PW , Kim AA . PLoS One 2020 15 (8) e0237221 Estimating incidence from cross-sectional data sources is both important to the understanding of the HIV epidemic and challenging from a methodological standpoint. We develop a new incidence estimator that measures the size of the undiagnosed population and the amount of time spent undiagnosed in order to infer incidence and transmission rates. The estimator is calculated using commonly collected information on testing history and HIV status and, thus, can be deployed in many HIV surveys without additional cost. If ART biomarker status and/or viral load information is available, the estimator can be adjusted for biases in self-reported testing history. The performance of the estimator is explored in two large surveys in Kenya, where we find our point estimates to be consistent with assay-derived estimates, with much smaller standard errors. |
A review of completeness, correctness, and order of cause of death statements among decedents with documented causes of death and HIV status at two major mortuaries in Kenya, 2015
Rogena EA , Waruru A , Young PW , Abade P , Nyagah LM , Walong EO . J Forensic Leg Med 2020 73 101993 Background: The cause of death (COD) statement is a vital statistic that refers to the disease(s) and process(es) that lead to death. Obtaining accurate COD is valuable for mortality prevention priorities. The statements are formulated using International Classification of Diseases and related health problems, version 10 (ICD-10) system. However, physicians may be unfamiliar with these standards or fail to use them and instead refer to mechanisms or manner of death when stating COD. We present results of an of assessment of quality of COD statements in decedent cases reviewed during a one-month mortuary-based surveillance at Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH) and the City mortuaries in Nairobi, Kenya in 2015. Methods: Quality elements reviewed were completeness, correctness and order of stating the immediate (ICOD), antecedent, underlying (UCOD), and other significant causes (OSCs) as per the ICD 10 standards, in all deaths reported among adolescents and adults aged 15 years or older at the two mortuaries. COD were assessed for correct sequencing from immediate, antecedent, to underlying compared with autopsy pathology and clinical findings where available. Errors in COD statements were classified as missing or containing incomplete information such as: lack of underlying cause of an injury; incorrect words or statements; presence of more than one competing COD; use of the mechanism of death or anatomic and physiologic processes or signs and symptoms, and or laboratory results as CODs. Pearson's χ-squared test was used to compare proportions. Results: Out of 810, 610 (75.3%) deaths having HIV statuses were abstracted and 356 had at least one COD documented; 114 (32%) females and 242 (68%) males; 239 (67.1%) from KNH and 117 (32.9%) City mortuary. The cases from City mortuary had higher rates of correct statements on 116 (99.1%) ICOD, 90 (89.1%) UCOD, and 40 (81.6%) OSCs, compared to KNH Mortuary; 50 (20.9%), 200 (90.1%) and 62 (76.5%) respectively, p < 0.001. The most common type of errors was incomplete information and citing mechanisms of death as the COD. Conclusions: In addition to revising national forms to conform to ICD-10, there is a need for periodic training of individuals responsible for completing death certificates. This will improve correctness and completeness of COD in order to provide reliable mortality data in Kenya. |
Use of viral load to improve survey estimates of known HIV-positive status and antiretroviral treatment coverage
Young PW , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Wamicwe J , Mukui I , Kim AA , Waruru A , Zeh C , Kretzschmar ME , De Cock KM . AIDS 2019 34 (4) 631-636 OBJECTIVE: To compare alternative methods of adjusting self-reported knowledge of HIV-positive status and antiretroviral (ARV) therapy use based on undetectable viral load (UVL) and ARV detection in blood. DESIGN: Post hoc analysis of nationally representative household survey to compare alternative biomarker-based adjustments to population HIV indicators. METHODS: We reclassified HIV-positive participants aged 15-64 years in the 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) that were unaware of their HIV-positive status by self-report as aware and on antiretroviral treatment if either ARVs were detected or viral load was undetectable (<550 copies/ml) on dried blood spots. We compared self-report to adjustments for ARV measurement, UVL, or both. RESULTS: Treatment coverage among all HIV-positive respondents increased from 31.8% for self-report to 42.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 37.4-47.8] based on ARV detection alone, to 42.8% (95% CI 37.9-47.8) when ARV-adjusted, 46.2% (95% CI 41.3-51.1) when UVL-adjusted and 48.8% (95% CI 43.9-53.8) when adjusted for either ARV or UVL. Awareness of positive status increased from 46.9% for self-report to 56.2% (95% CI 50.7-61.6) when ARV-adjusted, 57.5% (95% CI 51.9-63.0) when UVL-adjusted, and 59.8% (95% CI 54.2-65.1) when adjusted for either ARV or UVL. CONCLUSION: Undetectable viral load, which is routinely measured in surveys, may be a useful adjunct or alternative to ARV detection for adjusting survey estimates of knowledge of HIV status and antiretroviral treatment coverage. |
HIV-related deaths in Nairobi, Kenya: Results from a HIV mortuary surveillance study, 2015
Nyagah LM , Young PW , Kim AA , Wamicwe J , Kimani M , Waruiru W , Rogena E , Oduor J , Walong E , Waruru A , Oyugi J , Downer M , De Cock KM , Sirengo M . J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2019 81 (1) 18-23 BACKGROUND: Death is an important but often unmeasured endpoint in public health HIV surveillance. We sought to describe HIV among deaths using a novel mortuary-based approach in Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: Cadavers aged 15 years and older at death at Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH) and City Mortuaries were screened consecutively from January 29 to March 3, 2015. Cause of death was abstracted from medical files and death notification forms. Cardiac blood was drawn and tested for HIV infection using the national HIV testing algorithm followed by viral load testing of HIV-positive samples. RESULTS: Of 807 eligible cadavers, 610 (75.6%) had an HIV test result available. Cadavers from KNH had significantly higher HIV positivity at 23.2% (95% CI: 19.3 to 27.7) compared with City Mortuary at 12.6% (95% CI: 8.8 to 17.8), P < 0.001. HIV prevalence was significantly higher among women than men at both City (33.3% vs. 9.2%, P = 0.008) and KNH Mortuary (28.8% vs. 19.0%, P = 0.025). Half (53.3%) of HIV-infected cadavers had no diagnosis before death, and an additional 22.2% were only diagnosed during hospitalization leading to death. Although not statistically significant, 61.9% of males had no previous diagnosis compared with 45.8% of females (P = 0.144). Half (52.3%) of 44 cadavers at KNH with HIV diagnosis before death were on treatment, and 1 in 5 (22.7%) with a previous diagnosis had achieved viral suppression. CONCLUSIONS: HIV prevalence was high among deaths in Nairobi, especially among women, and previous diagnosis among cadavers was low. Establishing routine mortuary surveillance can contribute to monitoring HIV-associated deaths among cadavers sent to mortuaries. |
Evaluation of an HIV-related mortuary surveillance system - Nairobi, Kenya, two sites, 2015
Ali H , Kiama C , Muthoni L , Waruru A , Young PW , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Waruiru W , Hark Lerode R , Kim AA , Swaminathan M , De Cock KM , Wamicwe J . MMWR Surveill Summ 2018 67 (14) 1-12 PROBLEM/CONDITION: Use of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-mortality surveillance data can help public health officials monitor, evaluate, and improve HIV treatment programs. Many high-income countries have high-coverage civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems linked to case-based HIV surveillance on which to base HIV mortality estimates. However, in the absence of comprehensive CRVS systems in low- and medium-income countries, such as Kenya, mortuary surveillance can be used to understand the occurrence of HIV infection among cadavers. In 2015, a pilot HIV-related mortuary surveillance system was implemented in the two largest mortuaries in Nairobi, Kenya. CDC conducted an evaluation to assess performance attributes and identify strengths and weaknesses of the surveillance system pilot. PERIOD COVERED: Data collection: January 29-March 3, 2015; evaluation: November 2015. DESCRIPTION OF THE SYSTEM: The surveillance system objectives were to determine HIV positivity among cadavers at two mortuary sites in Nairobi, Kenya, and to determine annual cause-specific and HIV-specific mortality rates among the cadavers. Cadavers of persons aged >/=15 years at death admitted to either mortuary during a 33-day period were included. Demographic information and place and time of death were entered into a surveillance register. Cardiac blood was collected using transthoracic aspiration, and blood specimens were tested for HIV in a central laboratory. Causes of death were abstracted from mortuary and hospital records. Of the 807 cadavers brought to the mortuaries, 610 (75.6%) had an HIV test result available. The overall unadjusted HIV-positivity rate was 19.5% (119/610), which differed significantly by sex (14.6% among men versus 29.5% among women). EVALUATION: The evaluation was conducted using CDC guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems. The attributes of simplicity, flexibility, data quality (completeness and validity), acceptability, sensitivity, predictive value positive, representativeness, timeliness, and stability were examined. The evaluation steps included review of the surveillance system documents, in-depth interviews with 20 key informants (surveillance system staff, including mortuary and laboratory staff, and stakeholders involved in funding or implementation), and review of the surveillance database. RESULTS AND INTERPRETATION: Implementation of the pilot mortuary surveillance system was complex because of extensive paperwork and the need to collect and process specimens outside of business hours. However, the flexibility of the system accommodated multiple changes during implementation, including changes in specimen collection techniques and data collection tools. Acceptability was initially low among the mortuary staff but increased after concerns regarding workload were resolved. Timeliness of specimen collection could not be measured because time of death was rarely documented. Completeness of data available from the system was generally high except for cause of death (46.5%). Although the two largest mortuaries in Nairobi were included, the surveillance system might not be representative of the Nairobi population. One of the mortuaries was affiliated with the national referral hospital and included cadavers of admitted patients, some deaths might have occurred outside Nairobi, and data were collected for only 1 month. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTIONS: Mortuary surveillance can provide data on HIV positivity among cadavers and HIV-related mortality, which are not available from other sources in most sub-Saharan African countries. Availability of these mortality data will help describe a country's progress toward achieving epidemic control and achieving Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 targets. To understand HIV mortality in high-prevalence regions, the mortuary surveillance system is being replicated in Western Kenya. Although a low-cost system, its sustainability depends on external funding because mortuary surveillance is not yet incorporated into the national AIDS strategic framework in Kenya. |
Where No Universal Health Care Identifier Exists: Comparison and Determination of the Utility of Score-Based Persons Matching Algorithms Using Demographic Data
Waruru A , Natukunda A , Nyagah LM , Kellogg TA , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Waruiru W , Masamaro K , Harklerode R , Odhiambo J , Manders EJ , Young PW . JMIR Public Health Surveill 2018 4 (4) e10436 BACKGROUND: A universal health care identifier (UHID) facilitates the development of longitudinal medical records in health care settings where follow up and tracking of persons across health care sectors are needed. HIV case-based surveillance (CBS) entails longitudinal follow up of HIV cases from diagnosis, linkage to care and treatment, and is recommended for second generation HIV surveillance. In the absence of a UHID, records matching, linking, and deduplication may be done using score-based persons matching algorithms. We present a stepwise process of score-based persons matching algorithms based on demographic data to improve HIV CBS and other longitudinal data systems. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to compare deterministic and score-based persons matching algorithms in records linkage and matching using demographic data in settings without a UHID. METHODS: We used HIV CBS pilot data from 124 facilities in 2 high HIV-burden counties (Siaya and Kisumu) in western Kenya. For efficient processing, data were grouped into 3 scenarios within (1) HIV testing services (HTS), (2) HTS-care, and (3) within care. In deterministic matching, we directly compared identifiers and pseudo-identifiers from medical records to determine matches. We used R stringdist package for Jaro, Jaro-Winkler score-based matching and Levenshtein, and Damerau-Levenshtein string edit distance calculation methods. For the Jaro-Winkler method, we used a penalty (р)=0.1 and applied 4 weights (ω) to Levenshtein and Damerau-Levenshtein: deletion ω=0.8, insertion ω=0.8, substitutions ω=1, and transposition ω=0.5. RESULTS: We abstracted 12,157 cases of which 4073/12,157 (33.5%) were from HTS, 1091/12,157 (9.0%) from HTS-care, and 6993/12,157 (57.5%) within care. Using the deterministic process 435/12,157 (3.6%) duplicate records were identified, yielding 96.4% (11,722/12,157) unique cases. Overall, of the score-based methods, Jaro-Winkler yielded the most duplicate records (686/12,157, 5.6%) while Jaro yielded the least duplicates (546/12,157, 4.5%), and Levenshtein and Damerau-Levenshtein yielded 4.6% (563/12,157) duplicates. Specifically, duplicate records yielded by method were: (1) Jaro 5.7% (234/4073) within HTS, 0.4% (4/1091) in HTS-care, and 4.4% (308/6993) within care, (2) Jaro-Winkler 7.4% (302/4073) within HTS, 0.5% (6/1091) in HTS-care, and 5.4% (378/6993) within care, (3) Levenshtein 6.4% (262/4073) within HTS, 0.4% (4/1091) in HTS-care, and 4.2% (297/6993) within care, and (4) Damerau-Levenshtein 6.4% (262/4073) within HTS, 0.4% (4/1091) in HTS-care, and 4.2% (297/6993) within care. CONCLUSIONS: Without deduplication, over reporting occurs across the care and treatment cascade. Jaro-Winkler score-based matching performed the best in identifying matches. A pragmatic estimate of duplicates in health care settings can provide a corrective factor for modeled estimates, for targeting and program planning. We propose that even without a UHID, standard national deduplication and persons-matching algorithm that utilizes demographic data would improve accuracy in monitoring HIV care clinical cascades. |
Equity of antiretroviral treatment use in high HIV burden countries: Analyses of data from nationally-representative surveys in Kenya and South Africa
Moyo S , Young PW , Gouws E , Naidoo I , Wamicwe J , Mukui I , Marsh K , Igumbor EU , Kim AA , Rehle T . PLoS One 2018 13 (8) e0201899 OBJECTIVE: To assess changes and equity in antiretroviral therapy (ART) use in Kenya and South Africa. METHODS: We analysed national population-based household surveys conducted in Kenya and South Africa between 2007 and 2012 for factors associated with lack of ART use among people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged 15-64 years. We considered ART use to be inequitable if significant differences in use were found between groups of PLHIV (e.g. by sex). FINDINGS: ART use among PLHIV increased from 29.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.8-35.8) to 42.5% (95%CI: 37.4-47.7) from 2007 to 2012 in Kenya and 17.4% (95%CI: 14.2-20.9) to 30.3% (95%CI: 27.2-33.6) from 2008 to 2012 in South Africa. In 2012, factors independently associated with lack of ART use among adult Kenyan PLHIV were rural residency (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.98, 95%CI: 1.23-3.18), younger age (15-24 years: aOR 4.25, 95%CI: 1.7-10.63, and 25-34 years: aOR 5.16, 95%CI: 2.73-9.74 versus 50-64 years), nondisclosure of HIV status to most recent sex partner (aOR 2.41, 95%CI: 1.27-4.57) and recent recreational drug use (aOR 2.50, 95%CI: 1.09-5.77). Among South African PLHIV in 2012, lack of ART use was significantly associated with younger age (15-24 years: aOR 4.23, 95%CI: 2.56-6.70, and 25-34 years: aOR 2.84, 95%CI: 1.73-4.67, versus 50-64 years), employment status (aOR 1.61, 95%CI: 1.16-2.23 in students versus unemployed), and recent recreational drug use (aOR 4.56, 95%CI: 1.79-11.57). CONCLUSION: Although we found substantial increases in ART use in both countries over time, we identified areas needing improvement including among rural Kenyans, students in South Africa, and among young people and drug users in both countries. |
HIV incidence in western Kenya during scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and voluntary medical male circumcision: a population-based cohort analysis
Borgdorff MW , Kwaro D , Obor D , Otieno G , Kamire V , Odongo F , Owuor P , Muthusi J , Mills LA , Joseph R , Schmitz ME , Young PW , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , De Cock KM . Lancet HIV 2018 5 (5) e241-e249 BACKGROUND: In Kenya, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people with HIV infection has increased from 7% in 2006, to 57% in 2016; and, in western Kenya, coverage of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) increased from 45% in 2008, to 72% in 2014. We investigated trends in HIV prevalence and incidence in a high burden area in western Kenya in 2011-16. METHODS: In 2011, 2012, and 2016, population-based surveys were done via a health and demographic surveillance system and home-based counselling and testing in Gem, Siaya County, Kenya, including 28 688, 17 021, and 16 772 individuals aged 15-64 years. Data on demographic variables, self-reported HIV status, and risk factors were collected. Rapid HIV testing was offered to survey participants. Participants were tracked between surveys by use of health and demographic surveillance system identification numbers. HIV prevalence was calculated as a proportion, and HIV incidence was expressed as number of new infections per 1000 person-years of follow-up. FINDINGS: HIV prevalence was stable in participants aged 15-64 years: 15% (4300/28 532) in 2011, 12% (2051/16 875) in 2012, and 15% (2312/15 626) in 2016. Crude prevalences in participants aged 15-34 years were 11% (1893/17 197) in 2011, 10% (1015/10 118) in 2012, and 9% (848/9125) in 2016; adjusted for age and sex these prevalences were 11%, 9%, and 8%. 12 606 (41%) of the 30 520 non-HIV-infected individuals enrolled were seen again in at least one more survey round, and were included in the analysis of HIV incidence. HIV incidence was 11.1 (95% CI 9.1-13.1) per 1000 person-years from 2011 to 2012, and 5.7 (4.6-6.9) per 1000 person-years from 2012 to 2016. INTERPRETATION: With increasing coverage of ART and VMMC, HIV incidence declined substantially in Siaya County between 2011 and 2016. VMMC, but not ART, was suggested to have a direct protective effect, presumably because ART tended to be given to individuals with advanced HIV infection. HIV incidence is still high and not close to the elimination target of one per 1000 person-years. The effect of further scale-up of ART and VMMC needs to be monitored. FUNDING: Data were collected under Cooperative Agreements with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with funding from the President's Emergency Fund for AIDS Relief. |
Spatial-temporal trend for mother-to-child transmission of HIV up to infancy and during pre-Option B+ in western Kenya, 2007-13
Waruru A , Achia TNO , Muttai H , Ng'ang'a L , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Ochanda B , Katana A , Young PW , Tobias JL , Juma P , De Cock KM , Tylleskär T . PeerJ 2018 2018 (3) e4427 Introduction: Using spatial-temporal analyses to understand coverage and trends in elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (e-MTCT) efforts may be helpful in ensuring timely services are delivered to the right place. We present spatial-temporal analysis of seven years of HIV early infant diagnosis (EID) data collected from 12 districts in western Kenya from January 2007 to November 2013, during pre-Option B+ use. Methods: We included in the analysis infants up to one year old. We performed trend analysis using extended Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel stratified test and logistic regression models to examine trends and associations of infant HIV status at first diagnosis with: early diagnosis ( < 8 weeks after birth), age at specimen collection, infant ever having breastfed, use of single dose nevirapine, and maternal antiretroviral therapy status. We examined these covariates and fitted spatial and spatial-temporal semiparametric Poisson regression models to explain HIVinfection rates using R-integrated nested Laplace approximation package. We calculated new infections per 100,000 live births and used Quantum GIS to map fitted MTCT estimates for each district in Nyanza region. Results: Median age was two months, interquartile range 1.5-5.8 months. Unadjusted pooled positive rate was 11.8% in the seven-years period and declined from 19.7% in 2007 to 7.0% in 2013, p < 0.01. Uptake of testing ≤ 8 weeks after birth was under 50% in 2007 and increased to 64.1% by 2013, p < 0.01. By 2013, the overall standardized MTCTrate was 447 infections per 100,000 live births. Based on Bayesian deviance information criterion comparisons, the spatial-temporal model with maternal and infant covariates was best in explaining geographical variation in MTCT. Discussion: Improved EID uptake and reduced MTCT rates are indicators of progress towards e-MTCT. Cojoined analysis of time and covariates in a spatial context provides a robust approach for explaining differences in programmatic impact over time. Conclusion: During this pre-Option B+ period, the prevention of mother to child transmission program in this region has not achieved e-MTCT target of ≤ 50 infections per 100,000 live births. Geographical disparities in program achievements may signify gaps in spatial distribution of e-MTCT efforts and could indicate areas needing further resources and interventions. |
Bisexual and bidirectional: Assessing the potential for HIV bridging in Mozambique
Cummings B , Horth R , McFarland W , Lane T , Young PW , Nala R , Rutherford G , Raymond HF . AIDS Behav 2017 22 (7) 2189-2198 African men who have sex with men (MSM) frequently, and often concurrently, have female partners, raising concerns about HIV sexual bridging. We explored potential HIV transmission in Mozambique from and to female partners of MSM focusing on preferred anal sex role and circumcision status. Data collected in a respondent-driven sampling study of MSM in 2011 in Maputo and Beira. Men who had oral or anal sex with other men 12 months prior completed a questionnaire and consented for HIV testing. Statistical analysis explored demographic/risk characteristics and associations among circumcision status, anal sex with men, sexual positions during anal sex with men and vaginal or anal sex with women. We identified 326 MSM in Maputo and 237 in Beira with both male and female partners 3 months before the study. Of these, 20.8% in Maputo and 36.0% in Beira had any receptive anal sex with men 12 months prior, including 895 unprotected sexual acts with males in Maputo and 692 in Beira. Uncircumcised and exclusively insertive males, 27.7% of the sample in Maputo and 33.6% in Beira, had the most unprotected sex with females: 1159 total acts in Maputo and 600 in Beira. Sexual bridging between MSM and women likely varies geographically and is probably bi-directional, occurring within a generalized epidemic where HIV prevalence is higher among reproductive-age women than MSM. Prevention strategies emphasizing correct and consistent condom use for all partners and circumcision for bisexual men should be considered. |
HIV-associated mortality in the era of antiretroviral therapy scale-up - Nairobi, Kenya, 2015.
Young PW , Kim AA , Wamicwe J , Nyagah L , Kiama C , Stover J , Oduor J , Rogena EA , Walong E , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Imbwaga A , Sirengo M , Kellogg TA , De Cock KM . PLoS One 2017 12 (8) e0181837 BACKGROUND: Declines in HIV prevalence and increases in antiretroviral treatment coverage have been documented in Kenya, but population-level mortality associated with HIV has not been directly measured. In urban areas where a majority of deaths pass through mortuaries, mortuary-based studies have the potential to contribute to our understanding of excess mortality among HIV-infected persons. We used results from a cross-sectional mortuary-based HIV surveillance study to estimate the association between HIV and mortality for Nairobi, the capital city of Kenya. METHODS AND FINDINGS: HIV seropositivity in cadavers measured at the two largest mortuaries in Nairobi was used to estimate HIV prevalence in adult deaths. Model-based estimates of the HIV-infected and uninfected population for Nairobi were used to calculate a standardized mortality ratio and population-attributable fraction for mortality among the infected versus uninfected population. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess sensitivity to epidemiological assumptions. When standardized to the age and sex distribution of expected deaths, the estimated HIV positivity among adult deaths aged 15 years and above in Nairobi was 20.9% (95% CI 17.7-24.6%). The standardized mortality ratio of deaths among HIV-infected versus uninfected adults was 4.35 (95% CI 3.67-5.15), while the risk difference was 0.016 (95% CI 0.013-0.019). The HIV population attributable mortality fraction was 0.161 (95% CI 0.131-0.190). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated robustness of results. CONCLUSIONS: Although 73.6% of adult PLHIV receive antiretrovirals in Nairobi, their risk of death is four-fold greater than in the uninfected, while 16.1% of all adult deaths in the city can be attributed to HIV infection. In order to further reduce HIV-associated mortality, high-burden countries may need to reach very high levels of diagnosis, treatment coverage, retention in care, and viral suppression. |
Undisclosed HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy use in the Kenya AIDS indicator survey 2012: relevance to national targets for HIV diagnosis and treatment
Kim AA , Mukui I , Young PW , Mirjahangir J , Mwanyumba S , Wamicwe J , Bowen N , Wiesner L , Ng'ang'a L , De Cock KM . AIDS 2016 30 (17) 2685-2695 OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of undisclosed HIV infection and antiretroviral (ARV) therapy (ART) on national estimates of diagnosed HIV and ART coverage in Kenya. METHODS: HIV-positive dried blood spot samples from Kenya's second AIDS Indicator Survey were tested for an ARV biomarker by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Estimates of diagnosed HIV and ART use based on self-report were compared with those corrected for undisclosed HIV infection and ART use based on ARV testing. Multivariate analysis determined factors associated with undisclosed HIV infection and ART use among persons on ART. RESULTS: Among 559 HIV-positive samples, the ARV biomarker was detected in 42.5% (CI 37.4-47.7). ARV drugs were present in 90.7% (CI 86.1-95.2) reporting HIV-positive status and receiving ART, 66.7% (CI 59.9-73.4) reporting HIV-positive status irrespective of ART use, 21.0% (CI 13.4-28.6) reporting HIV-negative status, and 19.3% (CI 9.0-29.5) reporting no previous HIV test. After correcting for undisclosed HIV infection and ART use, diagnosed HIV increased from 46.9% to 57.2% and ART coverage increased from 31.8% to 42.8%. Undisclosed HIV infection on ART was associated with being aged 25-39 years and not visiting a health provider in the past year, while younger age and higher wealth was associated with undisclosed ART use. CONCLUSION: Substantial levels of undisclosed HIV infection and ART use while on ART were observed, resulting in diagnosed HIV underestimated by 112,000 persons and ART coverage by 131,000 persons. Supplementing self-reported ART status with objective measures of ART use in national population-based sero-surveys can improve monitoring of treatment targets in countries. |
Prevalence of HIV and associated risk factors among long distance truck drivers in Inchope, Mozambique, 2012
Botao C , Horth RZ , Frank H , Cummings B , Inguane C , Sathane I , McFarland W , Fisher Raymond H , Young PW . AIDS Behav 2015 20 (4) 811-20 This is the first integrated biological and behavioral surveillance survey among long-distance truck drivers (LDTD) in Mozambique. Using modified time-location sampling in 2012 at a key transportation junction (Inchope), we enrolled 327 male LDTD. HIV prevalence was 15.4 % (95 % confidence interval : 11.4-19.4 %, n = 318 tested). Among HIV-positive LDTD, 83.7 % did not know their status. One-third of LDTD had never tested for HIV and three-quarters had not received free condoms, lubricants or HIV literature in the past 12 months. In that same period, 61.4 % of LDTD had at least four sexual partners and 27.1 % paid for sex. Among sexually-active LDTD, 76.5 % did not use a condom at last sex. HIV was associated (p < 0.05) with primary education or lower (AOR 2.1), residence in Mozambique (AOR 2.3) and never having tested for HIV (AOR 2.2). Our findings reveal that broader coverage of HIV prevention and comprehensive care services for LDTD are urgently needed. |
High burden of HIV infection and risk behaviors among female sex workers in three main urban areas of Mozambique
Augusto AD , Young PW , Horth RZ , Inguane C , Sathane I , Ngale K , Benedetti M , Cummings B , Botao CF , Baltazar CA , Frank H , Fagan J , Fisher Raymond H , McFarland W . AIDS Behav 2015 20 (4) 799-810 This is the first integrated biological and behavioral survey among female sex workers (FSW) in Mozambique. Using respondent-driven sampling, 400, 411 and 429 FSW were enrolled respectively in Maputo, Beira and Nampula in 2011-2012. Estimates were produced using RDSAT 7.1. HIV prevalence was 31.2, 23.6, and 17.8 % in each location respectively. Among HIV-positive FSW, 48.1, 79.8 and 89.6 % in each city, were unaware of their serostatus. Condom use at last sex with a client was 85.8, 73.4 and 62.8 % among FSW, respectively. HIV was associated with current age, age of first sex for money, low educational level, and having had a genital ulcer in the last 6 months. Results suggest the urgent need to increase behavioral and structural interventions in this key population. |
Correlates of HIV testing among men who have sex with men in three urban areas of Mozambique: missed opportunities for prevention
Horth RZ , Cummings B , Young PW , Mirjahangir J , Sathane I , Nala R , Lane T , Raymond HF . AIDS Behav 2015 19 (11) 1978-89 This is the first study to identify levels of recent HIV testing and associated factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Mozambique. Using data from Maputo (n = 493), Beira (n = 572), and Nampula/Nacala (n = 347), collected via respondent-driven sampling in 2011, and excluding those with prior known infection, we found that 30.4 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 25.0-36.3 %], 42.1 % (95 % CI 36.8-47.3 %) and 29.8 % (95 % CI 22.9-36.9 %), respectively, had recently tested for HIV (≤12 months), while between three and five out of 10 MSM had never tested. A range of factors was associated with recent HIV testing such as familiarity with the modes of transmission, knowledge of antiretroviral treatment for HIV, contact with peer educators and awareness of partner serostatus; yet, surprisingly recent healthcare utilization was not associated with recent testing. Findings provide evidence that structural and behavioral interventions among MSM may play an important role in increasing HIV testing. |
Socio-demographic, behavioral and health characteristics of underage female sex workers in Mozambique: the need to protect a generation from HIV risk
Inguane C , Horth RZ , Miranda AE , Young PW , Sathane I , Cummings BE , Augusto A , Raymond HF , McFarland W . AIDS Behav 2015 19 (12) 2184-93 Characteristics, HIV risk, and program coverage for underage female sex workers (FSW) are rarely systematically described worldwide. We compared characteristics of underage (15-17 years old) and adult (≥18 years old) FSW in three main urban areas of Mozambique (Maputo, Beira and Nampula) using data from three respondent-driven sampling surveys implemented in 2011-2012. Among survey participants, 9.8 % (39/400) in Maputo, 17.0 % (70/411) in Beira and 25.6 % (110/429) in Nampula were underage. Over half reported performing sex work to afford daily living, and 29.7-50.0 % had unprotected sex with their last client. The proportion of underage FSW having accessed care and prevention services was lower compared to adult FSW. While HIV prevalence among underage FSW was lower than in adults, it increased markedly with age. Our results point to the urgency of expanding prevention and care programs geared towards underage FSW. |
HIV prevalence and risk behaviors among Mozambicans working in South African mines
Baltazar CS , Horth R , Inguane C , Sathane I , Cesar F , Ricardo H , Botao C , Augusto A , Cooley L , Cummings B , Raymond HF , Young PW . AIDS Behav 2015 19 Suppl 1 59-67 Mineworkers are considered a population at risk for HIV due to risk behaviors associated with migratory work patterns. This was the first study in Mozambique to determine the prevalence of HIV and associated demographic and risk behaviors, and assess use and access to prevention and healthcare services among Mozambicans working in South African mines. Men who had worked in a South African mine in the past 12 months were recruited between February and May 2012 using time location sampling (TLS) at the Ressano Garcia border between Mozambique and South Africa. Demographic and behavioral data were collected through a standardized questionnaire, and HIV prevalence was estimated by testing dried blood spots (DBS) with two enzyme immunoassays. In total, 432 eligible mine workers were recruited. Mean age was 43 years. Most were married or cohabitating; among them, 12.6 % had two or more wives/marital partners in Mozambique. In the 12 months preceding the survey, 24.7 % had an occasional sexual partner, and 6.6 % had at least one partner who was a female sex worker. Only one in five (18.5 %) used a condom during last sex. HIV prevalence among mineworkers was 22.3 %, and 74.6 % of those who tested positive as part of the survey did not know their status. HIV prevalence was significantly higher (p = 0.018) among those that were uncircumcised (31.2 %) than those who were circumcised (18.5 %). Multiple partners (multiple spouses, cross-border relations, and multiple occasional partnerships), inconsistent condom use, and a high proportion of infected mineworkers who do not know their HIV status increases the risk of HIV transmission in this population. Combination strategies involving the promotion of condom use, HIV testing, and male circumcision should be strengthened among mineworkers. |
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