Structural firefighters are exposed to an array of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as a result of incomplete combustion of both synthetic and natural materials. PAHs are found in both the particulate and vapor phases in the firefighting environment and are significantly associated with acute and chronic diseases, including cancer. Using a fireground exposure simulator (FES) and standing mannequins dressed in four different firefighter personal protective equipment (PPE) conditions, each with varying levels of protective hood interface and particulate-blocking features, the efficacy of the hoods was assessed against the ingress of PAHs (specifically, naphthalene). The authors also explored the effectiveness of a 100% cotton turtleneck at further attenuating the amount of naphthalene reaching the surface of the mannequin's neck. Air samples were collected at the breathing zone, abdomen, and thigh heights from the 6 ft-2 in mannequins used in this study. Naphthalene was the most abundant PAH (55% of the total PAH concentrations) in the FES and existed primarily in the vapor phase (92% vapor in the breathing zone). Additionally, bulk base layer and under the base layer polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) filter samples (used as skin surrogates) were collected from the neck region of the mannequins and analyzed for PAHs. A larger percentage of naphthalene was collected on the filter under the traditional knit hoods than on the cotton base layer, suggesting a small protective effect of the base layer against solid-phase naphthalene. Previous studies investigating naphthalene by employing air sampling under PPE have found a larger protective effect of base layers against the ingress of naphthalene vapor. PAHs that exist primarily as particulate in the fire environment were largely not detected on the base layers or PTFE filters under the gear. Further research is needed that involves more sensitive methods and non-static human subjects.

BACKGROUND: On 20 September 2022, the Ugandan Ministry of Health declared an outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Sudan ebolavirus. METHODS: From 6 October 2022 to 10 January 2023, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) staff conducted public health assessments at five US ports of entry for travellers identified as having been in Uganda in the past 21 days. CDC also recommended that state, local and territorial health departments ('health departments') conduct post-arrival monitoring of these travellers. CDC provided traveller contact information, daily to 58 health departments, and collected health department data regarding monitoring outcomes. RESULTS: Among 11 583 travellers screened, 132 (1%) required additional assessment due to potential exposures or symptoms of concern. Fifty-three (91%) health departments reported receiving traveller data from CDC for 10 114 (87%) travellers, of whom 8499 (84%) were contacted for monitoring, 1547 (15%) could not be contacted and 68 (1%) had no reported outcomes. No travellers with high-risk exposures or Ebola disease were identified. CONCLUSION: Entry risk assessment and post-arrival monitoring of travellers are resource-intensive activities that had low demonstrated yield during this and previous outbreaks. The efficiency of future responses could be improved by incorporating an assessment of risk of importation of disease, accounting for individual travellers' potential for exposure, and expanded use of methods that reduce burden to federal agencies, health departments, and travellers.

BACKGROUND: Current evidence linking long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) exposure and mortality is primarily based on persons that live in the same residence, city and/or country throughout the study, with few residential moves or relocations. We propose a novel method to quantify the health impacts of PM(2.5) for United States (US) diplomats who regularly relocate to international cities with different PM(2.5) levels. METHODS: Life table methods were applied at an individual-level to US mortality statistics using the World Health Organization's database of city-specific PM(2.5) annual mean concentrations. Global Burden of Disease concentration-response (C-R) functions were used to estimate cause-specific mortality and days of life lost (DLL) for a range of illustrative 20-year diplomatic assignments for three age groups. Time lags between exposure and exposure-related mortality risks were applied. Sensitivity analysis of baseline mortality, exposure level, C-R functions and lags was conducted. The effect of mitigation measures, including the addition of air purifiers, was examined. RESULTS: DLL due to PM(2.5) exposure for a standard 20-year assignment ranged from 0.3 days for diplomats' children to 84.1 days for older diplomats. DLL decreased when assignments in high PM(2.5) cities were followed by assignments in low PM(2.5) cities: 162.5 DLL when spending 20 years in high PM(2.5) cities compared to 62.6 DLL when spending one of every four years (5 years total) in a high PM(2.5) city for older male diplomats. Use of air purifiers and improved home tightness in polluted cities may halve DLL due to PM(2.5) exposure. The results were highly sensitive to lag assumptions: DLL increased by 68% without inception lags and decreased by 59% without cessation lags for older male diplomats. CONCLUSION: We developed a model to quantify health impacts of changing PM(2.5) exposure for a population with frequent relocations. Our model suggests that alternating assignments in high and low PM(2.5) cities may help reduce PM(2.5)-related mortality burdens. Adding exposure mitigation at home may help reduce PM(2.5) related mortality. Further research on outcome-specific lag structures is needed to improve the model.

Campylobacteriosis and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are global public health concerns. Africa is estimated to have the world's highest incidence of campylobacteriosis and a relatively high prevalence of AMR in Campylobacter spp. from humans and animals. Few studies have compared Campylobacter spp. isolated from humans and poultry in Africa using whole-genome sequencing and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. We explored the population structure and AMR of 178 Campylobacter isolates from East Africa, 81 from patients with diarrhea in Kenya and 97 from 56 poultry samples in Tanzania, collected during 2006-2017. Sequence type diversity was high in both poultry and human isolates, with some sequence types in common. The estimated prevalence of multidrug resistance, defined as resistance to >3 antimicrobial classes, was higher in poultry isolates (40.9%, 95% credible interval 23.6%-59.4%) than in human isolates (2.5%, 95% credible interval 0.3%-6.8%), underlining the importance of antimicrobial stewardship in livestock systems.

CONTEXT: Public health programs promote numerous tickborne disease (TBD) prevention measures. However, measures are not frequently or consistently performed. OBJECTIVE: Describe barriers to consistent use of 4 commonly promoted TBD prevention measures. DESIGN: We conducted an online survey (n = 1883) evaluating behaviors regarding TBD prevention measures including conducting tick checks, applying insect repellents, showering/bathing, and applying chemical or natural pesticides to residential yards. Respondents could select reasons for never, rarely, or sometimes performing these measures. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression modeling evaluated associations between the 3 most cited barriers for each measure and select demographic variables. SETTING: The survey was administered to residents in high Lyme disease incidence counties of Connecticut and Maryland, 2016-2017. RESULTS: For tick checks (n = 800), the most cited barriers were forgetting (63%), not spending time in tick habitat (28%), and too much trouble (11%). For applying insect repellents (n = 1303), the most cited barriers were forgetting (38%), personal safety concerns (24%), and too much trouble (19%). For showering/bathing 2 hours after outdoor activity in tick habitat (n = 1080), the most cited barriers were being unaware of the prevention measure (51%), too much trouble (18%), and forgetting (18%). For applying chemical pesticides to yards (n = 1320), the most cited barriers were having environmental (45%), pet safety (31%), and personal safety concerns (28%). Lastly, for applying natural pesticides to yards (n = 1357), the most cited barriers were being unaware of natural pesticides (31%), having cost concerns (23%), and not being concerned about ticks on property (16%). CONCLUSIONS: Forgetting, too much trouble, unawareness, and safety concerns were primary barriers to using several TBD prevention measures. Education regarding effectiveness, safety, and timing may increase uptake of certain measures. These challenges can be difficult to address, highlighting the need for passive TBD prevention measures, such as a Lyme disease vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Although guidelines recommend risk assessment for hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) to inform prophylaxis decisions, studies demonstrate inappropriate utilization of pharmacoprophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients. Predictors of pharmacoprophylaxis initiation in medical inpatients remain largely unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine factors associated with HA-VTE pharmacoprophylaxis initiation in adults hospitalized on medical services. DESIGN: Cohort study using electronic health record data from adult patients hospitalized on medical services at four academic medical centers between 2016 and 2019. PARTICIPANTS: Among 111,550 admissions not on intermediate or full-dose anticoagulation, 48,520 (43.5%) received HA-VTE pharmacoprophylaxis on the day of or the day after admission. MAIN MEASURES: Candidate predictors of HA-VTE pharmacoprophylaxis initiation, including known HA-VTE risk factors, predicted HA-VTE risk, and bleeding diagnoses present on admission. KEY RESULTS: After adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and study site, the strongest clinical predictors of HA-VTE pharmacoprophylaxis initiation were malnutrition and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Thrombocytopenia and history of gastrointestinal bleeding were associated with decreased odds of HA-VTE pharmacoprophylaxis initiation. Patients in the highest two tertiles of predicted HA-VTE risk were less likely to receive HA-VTE pharmacoprophylaxis than patients in the lowest (1(st)) tertile (OR 0.84, 95% CI [0.81, 0.86] for 2(nd) tertile, OR 0.95, 95% CI [0.92, 0.98] for 3(rd) tertile). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients not already receiving anticoagulants, HA-VTE pharmacoprophylaxis initiation during the first two hospital days was lower in patients with higher predicted HA-VTE risk and those with risk factors for bleeding. Reasons for not initiating pharmacoprophylaxis in those with higher predicted risk could not be assessed.

Previously established World Health Organization (WHO) International Standards (IS) for anti-HPV16 and HPV18 antibodies are used to harmonize results across human papillomavirus (HPV) serology assays. Here, we present an international collaborative study to establish ISs for antibodies against HPV6 (NIBSC code 19/298), HPV11 (20/174), HPV31 (20/176), HPV33 (19/290), HPV45 (20/178), HPV52 (19/296) and HPV58 (19/300). The candidate standards were prepared using sera from naturally infected individuals. Each candidate was shown to be monospecific for reactivity against its indicated HPV type except for the HPV11 candidate, which was also reactive against other types. Expression of antibody levels relative to the relevant candidate IS reduced inter-laboratory variation allowing greater comparability between laboratories. Based on these results, the WHO Expert Committee on Biological Standardization established each of the 7 candidates as the 1st IS for antiserum to its indicated HPV type for use in the standardization of HPV pseudovirion-based neutralization and antibody-binding assays.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that HIV treatment scale-up is accompanied by a robust assessment of drug resistance emergence and transmission. The WHO HIV Drug Resistance (HIVDR) monitoring and surveillance strategy includes HIVDR testing in adults both initiating and receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Due to limited information about HIVDR in Mozambique, we conducted two nationally representative surveys of adults initiating and receiving first-line ART regimes to better inform the HIV program. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional study between March 2017 and December 2019. Adults (older than 15 years) living with HIV (PLHIV) initiating ART or receiving first-line ART for between 9-15 months at 25 health facilities across all eleven provinces in Mozambique were included. Genotypic HIVDR was assessed on dried blood spots (DBS) when viral loads were  ≥ 1000 copies/ml. Genotypic resistance for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs) was determined using the Stanford HIV database algorithm 9.5 and calibrated population resistance tool 8.1. RESULTS: Of 828 participants -enrolled, viral load (VL) testing was performed on 408 initiators and 409 ART experienced. Unsuppressed VL was found in 68.1% 419 initiators and 18.8% (77/409) of the ART experienced. Of the 278 initiators and 70 ART experienced who underwent sequencing, 51.7% (144/278) and 75.7% (53/70) were sequenced successfully. Among the new initiators, pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) for NNRTI and PI was found in 16.0% (23/144) and 1.4% (2/144) of the participants, respectively. Acquired drug resistance (ADR) was found in 56.5% (30/53) of the ART-experienced participants of whom 24.5% (13/53) were resistant to both NRTI and NNRTI. CONCLUSION: High rates of PDR and ADR for NNRTI and ADR for NRTI were observed in our study. These findings support the replacement of NNRTIs with dolutegravir (DTG) but high levels of NRTI resistance in highly treatment-experienced individuals still require attention when transitioning to new regimens. Moreover, the study underlines the need for routine VL testing and HIVDR surveillance to improve treatment management strategies.

Structural firefighters are exposed to a complex set of contaminants and combustion byproducts, including volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Additionally, recent studies have found structural firefighters' skin may be exposed to multiple chemical compounds via permeation or penetration of chemical byproducts through or around personal protective equipment (PPE). This mannequin-based study evaluated the effectiveness of four different PPE conditions with varying contamination control measures (incorporating PPE interface design features and particulate blocking materials) to protect against ingress of several VOCs in a smoke exposure chamber. We also investigated the effectiveness of long-sleeve base layer clothing to provide additional protection against skin contamination. Outside gear air concentrations were measured from within the smoke exposure chamber at the breathing zone, abdomen, and thigh heights. Personal air concentrations were collected from mannequins under PPE at the same general heights and under the base layer at abdomen and thigh heights. Sampled contaminants included benzene, toluene, styrene, and naphthalene. Results suggest that VOCs can readily penetrate the ensembles. Workplace protection factors (WPFs) were near one for benzene and toluene and increased with increasing molecular weight of the contaminants. WPFs were generally lower under hoods and jackets compared to under pants. For all PPE conditions, the pants appeared to provide the greatest overall protection against ingress of VOCs, but this may be due in part to the lower air concentrations toward the floor (and cuffs of pants) relative to the thigh-height outside gear concentrations used in calculating the WPFs. Providing added interface control measures and adding particulate-blocking materials appeared to provide a protective benefit against less-volatile chemicals, like naphthalene and styrene.

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in children is highly prevalent but its acute and chronic implications have been minimally described. METHODS: In this controlled case-ascertained household transmission study, we recruited asymptomatic children <18 years with SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid testing performed at 12 tertiary care pediatric institutions in Canada and the United States. We attempted to recruit all test-positive children and 1 to 3 test-negative, site-matched controls. After 14 days' follow-up we assessed the clinical (ie, symptomatic) and combined (ie, test-positive, or symptomatic) secondary attack rates (SARs) among household contacts. Additionally, post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) was assessed in SARS-CoV-2-positive participating children after 90 days' follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 111 test-positive and 256 SARS-CoV-2 test-negative asymptomatic children were enrolled between January 2021 and April 2022. After 14 days, excluding households with co-primary cases, the clinical SAR among household contacts of SARS-CoV-2-positive and -negative index children was 10.6% (19/179; 95% CI: 6.5%-16.1%) and 2.0% (13/663; 95% CI: 1.0%-3.3%), respectively (relative risk = 5.4; 95% CI: 2.7-10.7). In households with a SARS-CoV-2-positive index child, age <5 years, being pre-symptomatic (ie, developed symptoms after test), and testing positive during Omicron and Delta circulation periods (vs earlier) were associated with increased clinical and combined SARs among household contacts. Among 77 asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children with 90-day follow-up, 6 (7.8%; 95% CI: 2.9%-16.2%) reported PCC. CONCLUSIONS: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children, especially those <5 years, are important contributors to household transmission, with 1 in 10 exposed household contacts developing symptomatic illness within 14 days. Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children may develop PCC.

BACKGROUND: Regulatory organizations recommend assessing hospital-acquired (HA) venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk for medical inpatients. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a risk assessment model (RAM) for HA-VTE in medical inpatients using objective and assessable risk factors knowable at admission. PATIENTS/METHODS: The development cohort included people admitted to medical services at the University of Vermont Medical Center (Burlington, VT, USA) between 2010-19 and the validation cohorts people admitted to Hennepin County Medical Center (Minneapolis, MN, USA), University of Michigan Medical Center (Ann Arbor, MI, USA), and Harris Health Systems (Houston, TX, USA). Individuals with VTE at admission, <18-years old, and admitted for <1 midnight were excluded. We used a Bayesian penalized regression technique to selected candidate HA-VTE risk factors for final inclusion in the RAM. RESULTS: The development cohort included 60,633 admissions and 227 HA-VTE and the validation cohorts 111,269 admissions and 651 HA-VTE. Seven HA-VTE risk factors with t-statistics ≥1.5 were included in the RAM: prior history of VTE, low hemoglobin, elevated creatinine, active cancer, hyponatremia, elevated red cell distribution width, and malnutrition. The AUC and calibration slope were 0.72 and 1.10. The AUC and calibration slopes were 0.70 and 0.93 at Hennepin County Medical Center, 0.70 and 0.87 at the University of Michigan Medical Center, and 0.71 and 1.00 at Harris Health Systems. The RAM performed well stratified by age, sex, and race. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a RAM for HA-VTE in medical inpatients. By quantifying risk, clinicians can determine the potential benefits of measures to reduce HA-VTE.

BACKGROUND: To inform response strategies, we examined type 1 humoral and intestinal immunity induced by 1) one fractional inactivated poliovirus vaccine (fIPV) dose given with monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV1), and 2) mOPV1 versus bivalent OPV (bOPV). METHODS: We conducted a randomized, controlled, open-label trial in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Healthy infants aged 5 weeks were block randomized to one of four arms: mOPV1 at age 6-10-14 weeks/fIPV at 6 weeks (A); mOPV1 at 6-10-14 weeks/fIPV at 10 weeks (B); mOPV1 at 6-10-14 weeks (C); and bOPV at 6-10-14 weeks (D). Immune response at 10 weeks and cumulative response at 14 weeks was assessed among the modified intention-to-treat population, defined as seroconversion from seronegative (<1:8 titers) to seropositive (≥1:8) or a four-fold titer rise among seropositive participants sustained to age 18 weeks. We examined virus shedding after two doses of mOPV1 with and without fIPV, and after the first mOPV1 or bOPV dose. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03722004). FINDINGS: During 18 December 2018 - 23 November 2019, 1,192 infants were enrolled (arms A:301; B:295; C:298; D:298). Immune responses at 14 weeks did not differ after two mOPV1 doses alone (94% [95% CI: 91-97%]) versus two mOPV1 doses with fIPV at 6 weeks (96% [93-98%]) or 10 weeks (96% [93-98%]). Participants who received mOPV1 and fIPV at 10 weeks had significantly lower shedding (p < 0·001) one- and two-weeks later compared with mOPV1 alone. Response to one mOPV1 dose was significantly higher than one bOPV dose (79% versus 67%; p < 0·001) and shedding two-weeks later was significantly higher after mOPV1 (76% versus 56%; p < 0·001) indicating improved vaccine replication. Ninety-nine adverse events were reported, 29 serious including two deaths; none were attributed to study vaccines. INTERPRETATION: Given with the second mOPV1 dose, fIPV improved intestinal immunity but not humoral immunity. One mOPV1 dose induced higher humoral and intestinal immunity than bOPV. FUNDING: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information&amp; Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. &amp; Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia &amp; Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, &amp; Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44

Firefighters are at an increased risk of cancer due to their occupational exposure to combustion byproducts, especially when those compounds penetrate the firefighter personal protective equipment (PPE) ensemble. This has led to questions about the impact of base layers (i.e., shorts vs. pants) under PPE ensembles. This study asked 23 firefighters to perform firefighting activities while wearing one of three different PPE ensembles with varying degrees of protection. Additionally, half of the firefighters unzipped their jackets after the scenario while the other half kept their jackets zipped for five additional minutes. Several volatile organic compound (VOC) and naphthalene air concentrations outside and inside of hoods, turnout jackets, and turnout pants were evaluated; biological (urinary and exhaled breath) samples were also collected. VOCs and naphthalene penetrated the three sampling areas (hoods, jackets, pants). Significant (p-value < 0.05) increases from pre- to post-fire for some metabolites of VOCs (e.g., benzene, toluene) and naphthalene were found. Firefighters wearing shorts and short sleeves absorbed higher amounts of certain compounds (p-value < 0.05), and the PPE designed with enhanced interface control features appeared to provide more protection from some compounds. These results suggest that firefighters can dermally absorb VOCs and naphthalene that penetrate the PPE ensemble.

Since the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established in 1988, the number of wild poliovirus (WPV) cases has declined by >99.9%, and WPV serotypes 2 and 3 have been declared eradicated (1). By the end of 2022, WPV type 1 (WPV1) transmission remained endemic only in Afghanistan and Pakistan (2,3). However, during 2021-2022, Malawi and Mozambique reported nine WPV1 cases that were genetically linked to Pakistan (4,5), and circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks were detected in 42 countries (6). cVDPVs are oral poliovirus vaccine-derived viruses that can emerge after prolonged circulation in populations with low immunity allowing reversion to neurovirulence and can cause paralysis. Polioviruses are detected primarily through surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), and poliovirus is confirmed through stool specimen testing. Environmental surveillance, the systematic sampling of sewage and testing for the presence of poliovirus, supplements AFP surveillance. Both surveillance systems were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic's effects on public health activities during 2020 (7,8) but improved in 2021 (9). This report updates previous reports (7,9) to describe surveillance performance during 2021-2022 in 34 priority countries.* In 2022, a total of 26 (76.5%) priority countries met the two key AFP surveillance performance indicator targets nationally compared with 24 (70.6%) countries in 2021; however, substantial gaps remain in subnational areas. Environmental surveillance expanded to 725 sites in priority countries, a 31.1% increase from the 553 sites reported in 2021. High-quality surveillance is critical to rapidly detect poliovirus transmission and enable prompt poliovirus outbreak response to stop circulation. Frequent monitoring of surveillance guides improvements to achieve progress toward polio eradication.

BACKGROUND: Novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) was developed by modifying the Sabin strain to increase genetic stability and reduce risk of seeding new circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks. Bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (bOPV; containing Sabin types 1 and 3) is the vaccine of choice for type 1 and type 3 outbreak responses. We aimed to assess immunological interference between nOPV2 and bOPV when administered concomitantly. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, non-inferiority, randomised, controlled trial at two clinical trial sites in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Healthy infants aged 6 weeks were randomly assigned (1:1:1) using block randomisation, stratified by site, to receive nOPV2 only, nOPV2 plus bOPV, or bOPV only, at the ages of 6 weeks, 10 weeks, and 14 weeks. Eligibility criteria included singleton and full term (≥37 weeks' gestation) birth and parents intending to remain in the study area for the duration of study follow-up activities. Poliovirus neutralising antibody titres were measured at the ages of 6 weeks, 10 weeks, 14 weeks, and 18 weeks. The primary outcome was cumulative immune response for all three poliovirus types at the age of 14 weeks (after two doses) and was assessed in the modified intention-to-treat population, which was restricted to participants with adequate blood specimens from all study visits. Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of study product. A non-inferiority margin of 10% was used to compare single and concomitant administration. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04579510. FINDINGS: Between Feb 8 and Sept 26, 2021, 736 participants (244 in the nOPV2 only group, 246 in the nOPV2 plus bOPV group, and 246 in the bOPV only group) were enrolled and included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis. After two doses, 209 (86%; 95% CI 81-90) participants in the nOPV2 only group and 159 (65%; 58-70) participants in the nOPV2 plus bOPV group had a type 2 poliovirus immune response; 227 (92%; 88-95) participants in the nOPV2 plus bOPV group and 229 (93%; 89-96) participants in the bOPV only group had a type 1 response; and 216 (88%; 83-91) participants in the nOPV2 plus bOPV group and 212 (86%; 81-90) participants in the bOPV only group had a type 3 response. Co-administration was non-inferior to single administration for types 1 and 3, but not for type 2. There were 15 serious adverse events (including three deaths, one in each group, all attributable to sudden infant death syndrome); none were attributed to vaccination. INTERPRETATION: Co-administration of nOPV2 and bOPV interfered with immunogenicity for poliovirus type 2, but not for types 1 and 3. The blunted nOPV2 immunogenicity we observed would be a major drawback of using co-administration as a vaccination strategy. FUNDING: The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In this Policy Forum, Anna Grimsrud and colleagues discuss the future of HIV testing in eastern and southern Africa, using insights gleaned from a 2021 expert consultation.

Chronic health risks associated with firefighting continue to be documented and studied, however, the complexity of occupational exposures and the relationship between occupational exposure and contaminated personal protective equipment (PPE) remains unknown. Recent work has revealed that common PPE cleaning practices, which are becoming increasingly more common in the fire service, are not effective in removing certain contaminants, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), from PPE. To better understand the relationship between contaminated firefighter PPE and potential exposure to PAHs, and to gain further understanding of the efficacy of cleaning practices, we used a standardized fire exposure simulator that created repeatable conditions and measured PPE surface contamination levels via wipe sampling and filters attached to firefighter gear worn by standing mannequins. This study examined the effects of repeated (40 cycles) PPE cleaning (laundering and on-scene preliminary exposure reduction (PER) techniques) and repeated exposures on PAH concentration on different surfaces. Further exploration included examination of contamination breakthrough of turnout jackets (comparing outer shell and interior liner) and evaluation of off-gassing PAHs from used gear after different cleaning treatments. When compared by jacket closure type (zipper and hook and dee), total PAH concentration wiped from gear after exposure and cleanings showed no significant differences. Regression analysis indicated that there was no effect of repeated exposures on PAH contamination levels (all sampling sites combined; before fire 10, 20, and 40; after fire 1, 10, 20, and 40; p-value > 0.05). Both laundering and on-scene PER significantly reduced contamination levels on the exterior pants and helmets and were effective at reducing PAH contamination. The jacket outer shell had significantly higher PAH contamination than the jacket liner. Both laundering and wet soap PER methods (post-fire) are effective in reducing surface contamination and appear to prevent accumulation of contamination after repeated exposures. Semi-volatile PAHs deep within the fibers of bulky PPE are not effectively reduced via PER or machine laundering, therefore, permitting continued off-gassing of these compounds. Further research is needed to identify the most effective laundering methods for firefighter turnout gear that considers the broad spectrum of common contaminants.

Less than 99.99% of recorded cases of poliomyelitis have occurred since the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established in 1988. By the end of 2021, only Afghanistan and Pakistan will still have endemic wild poliovirus (WPV). While Malawi reported a case of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) with paralysis onset in 2021, just over a year after the WHO African Region (AFR) was proclaimed WPV-free, 31 nations reported incidences of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) between 2020 and 2021. Monitoring for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) in people under the age of 15 is the main way to identify poliovirus transmission, and confirmation comes from testing stool samples at WHO-accredited labs. In all WHO regions in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on polio vaccination and surveillance; from January to September 2020, fewer AFP cases were reported, and there was a longer delay between collecting stools and labs receiving them than there had been during the same period in 2019. A significant increase from 2020, when only 23 (53%) of the priority countries attained the national targets for the two key surveillance performance metrics, was shown in 2021. High-performance surveillance is necessary to track the spread of the poliovirus. Gaps in surveillance indicators might be found, improvements could be made, and the overall sensitivity and promptness of poliovirus detection might be enhanced in order to successfully eradicate polio. The collection of adequate stool specimens8 from AFP patients, with a target of 80% adequate stool specimens, and the nonpolio AFP (NPAFP) rate, which is a rate of 2 per 100,000 people aged 15 years and considered sufficiently sensitive for detecting circulating poliovirus, are two key performance indicators used to assess the quality of AFP surveillance. 43 priority nations experiencing or at high risk of poliovirus transmission were the subject of an analysis of surveillance indicators as of 25 March 2022.

BACKGROUND: In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, a pandemic. Patients with severe cases resulting in hospitalization and mechanical ventilation are at risk for COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis, an invasive fungal infection, and should be screened for aspergillosis if they have persistent hemodynamic instability and fever. Early detection and treatment of this fungal infection can significantly reduce morbidity and mortality in this population. OBJECTIVE: To develop an evidence-based care step pathway tool to help intensive care unit clinicians assess, diagnose, and treat COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis. METHODS: A panel of 18 infectious disease experts, advanced practice registered nurses, pharmacists, and clinical researchers convened in a series of meetings to develop the Care Step Pathway tool, which was modeled on a tool developed by advanced practice nurses to evaluate and manage side effects of therapies for melanoma. The Care Step Pathway tool addresses various aspects of disease management, including assessment, screening, diagnosis, antifungal treatment, pharmacological considerations, and exclusion of other invasive fungal coinfections. RESULTS: The Care Step Pathway tool was applied in the care of a patient with COVID-19-associated aspergillosis. The patient was successfully treated. CONCLUSION: The Care Step Pathway is an effective educational tool to help intensive care unit clinicians consider fungal infection when caring for COVID-19 patients receiving mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit, especially when the clinical course is deteriorating and antibiotics are ineffective.

Since the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established in 1988, the number of reported poliomyelitis cases worldwide has declined by approximately 99.99%. By the end of 2021, wild poliovirus (WPV) remained endemic in only two countries (Pakistan and Afghanistan). However, a WPV type 1 (WPV1) case with paralysis onset in 2021, was reported by Malawi a year after the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region (AFR) was certified as WPV-free and circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) cases were reported from 31 countries during 2020-2021 (1,2). cVDPVs are oral poliovirus vaccine-derived viruses that can emerge after prolonged circulation in populations with low immunity and cause paralysis. The primary means of detecting poliovirus transmission is through surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) among persons aged <15 years, with confirmation through stool specimen testing by WHO-accredited laboratories, supplemented by systematic sampling of sewage and testing for the presence of poliovirus (environmental surveillance). The COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions in polio vaccination and surveillance activities across WHO regions in 2020; during January-September 2020, the number of reported cases of AFP declined and the interval between stool collection and receipt by laboratories increased compared with the same period in 2019 (3). This report summarizes surveillance performance indicators for 2020 and 2021 in 43 priority countries* and updates previous reports (4). In 2021, a total of 32 (74%) priority countries(†) met two key surveillance performance indicator targets nationally, an improvement from 2020 when only 23 (53%) met both targets; however, substantial national and subnational gaps persist. High-performing poliovirus surveillance is critical to tracking poliovirus transmission. Frequent monitoring of surveillance indicators could help identify gaps, guide improvements, and enhance the overall sensitivity and timelines of poliovirus detection to successfully achieve polio eradication.

Background: Molecular diagnostics are considered the most promising route to achievement of rapid, universal drug susceptibility testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). We aimed to generate a WHO-endorsed catalogue of mutations to serve as a global standard for interpreting molecular information for drug resistance prediction. Methods: In this systematic analysis, we used a candidate gene approach to identify mutations associated with resistance or consistent with susceptibility for 13 WHO-endorsed antituberculosis drugs. We collected existing worldwide MTBC whole-genome sequencing data and phenotypic data from academic groups and consortia, reference laboratories, public health organisations, and published literature. We categorised phenotypes as follows: methods and critical concentrations currently endorsed by WHO (category 1); critical concentrations previously endorsed by WHO for those methods (category 2); methods or critical concentrations not currently endorsed by WHO (category 3). For each mutation, we used a contingency table of binary phenotypes and presence or absence of the mutation to compute positive predictive value, and we used Fisher's exact tests to generate odds ratios and Benjamini-Hochberg corrected p values. Mutations were graded as associated with resistance if present in at least five isolates, if the odds ratio was more than 1 with a statistically significant corrected p value, and if the lower bound of the 95% CI on the positive predictive value for phenotypic resistance was greater than 25%. A series of expert rules were applied for final confidence grading of each mutation. Findings: We analysed 41 137 MTBC isolates with phenotypic and whole-genome sequencing data from 45 countries. 38 215 MTBC isolates passed quality control steps and were included in the final analysis. 15 667 associations were computed for 13 211 unique mutations linked to one or more drugs. 1149 (73%) of 15 667 mutations were classified as associated with phenotypic resistance and 107 (07%) were deemed consistent with susceptibility. For rifampicin, isoniazid, ethambutol, fluoroquinolones, and streptomycin, the mutations' pooled sensitivity was more than 80%. Specificity was over 95% for all drugs except ethionamide (914%), moxifloxacin (916%) and ethambutol (933%). Only two resistance mutations were identified for bedaquiline, delamanid, clofazimine, and linezolid as prevalence of phenotypic resistance was low for these drugs. Interpretation: We present the first WHO-endorsed catalogue of molecular targets for MTBC drug susceptibility testing, which is intended to provide a global standard for resistance interpretation. The existence of this catalogue should encourage the implementation of molecular diagnostics by national tuberculosis programmes. Funding: Unitaid, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

The wildland firefighter exposure and health effect (WFFEHE) study was a 2-year repeated-measures study to investigate occupational exposures and acute and subacute health effects among wildland firefighters. This manuscript describes the study rationale, design, methods, limitations, challenges, and lessons learned. The WFFEHE cohort included fire personnel ages 18-57 from six federal wildland firefighting crews in Colorado and Idaho during the 2018 and 2019 fire seasons. All wildland firefighters employed by the recruited crews were invited to participate in the study at preseason and postseason study intervals. In 2019, one of the crews also participated in a 3-day midseason study interval where workplace exposures and pre/postshift measurements were collected while at a wildland fire incident. Study components assessed cardiovascular health, pulmonary function and inflammation, kidney function, workplace exposures, and noise-induced hearing loss. Measurements included self-reported risk factors and symptoms collected through questionnaires; serum and urine biomarkers of exposure, effect, and inflammation; pulmonary function; platelet function and arterial stiffness; and audiometric testing. Throughout the study, 154 wildland firefighters participated in at least one study interval, while 144 participated in two or more study interval. This study was completed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health through a collaborative effort with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Department of the Interior National Park Service, and Skidmore College. Conducting research in the wildfire environment came with many challenges including collecting study data with study participants with changing work schedules and conducting study protocols safely and operating laboratory equipment in remote field locations. Forthcoming WFFEHE study results will contribute to the scientific evidence regarding occupational risk factors and exposures that can impact wildland firefighter health over a season and across two wildland fire seasons. This research is anticipated to lead to the development of preventive measures and policies aimed at reducing risk for wildland firefighters and aid in identifying future research needs for the wildland fire community.

The fire service has become more aware of the potential for adverse health outcomes due to occupational exposure to hazardous combustion byproducts. Because of these concerns, personal protective equipment (PPE) manufacturers have developed new protection concepts like particulate-blocking hoods to reduce firefighters' exposures. Additionally, fire departments have implemented exposure reduction interventions like routine laundering of PPE after fire responses. This study utilized a fireground exposure simulator (FES) with 24 firefighters performing firefighting activities on three consecutive days wearing one of three PPE ensembles (stratified by hood design and treatment of PPE): 1) new knit hood, new turnout jacket and new turnout pants 2) new particulate-blocking hood, new turnout jacket and new turnout pants or 3) laundered particulate-blocking hood, laundered turnout jacket and laundered turnout pants. As firefighters performed the firefighting activities, personal air sampling on the outside and inside the turnout jacket was conducted to quantify exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and naphthalene. Pre- and immediately post-fire exhaled breath samples were collected to characterize the absorption of VOCs. Benzene, toluene, and naphthalene were found to diffuse through and/or around the turnout jacket, as inside jacket benzene concentrations were often near levels reported outside the turnout jacket (9.7-11.7% median benzene reduction from outside the jacket to inside the jacket). The PPE ensemble did not appear to affect the level of contamination found inside the jacket for the compounds evaluated here. Benzene concentrations in exhaled breath increased significantly from pre to post-fire for all three groups (p-values < 0.05). The difference of pre-to post-fire benzene exhaled breath concentrations were positively associated with inside jacket and outside jacket benzene concentrations, even though self-contained breathing apparatus (SCBA) were worn during each response. This suggests the firefighters can absorb these compounds via the dermal route.

In 1988, when the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) began, polio paralyzed >350,000 children across 125 countries. Today, only one of three wild poliovirus serotypes, type 1 (WPV1), remains in circulation in only two countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan. This report summarizes progress toward global polio eradication during January 1, 2019-June 30, 2021 and updates previous reports (1,2). In 2020, 140 cases of WPV1 were reported, including 56 in Afghanistan (a 93% increase from 29 cases in 2019) and 84 in Pakistan (a 43% decrease from 147 cases in 2019). As GPEI focuses on the last endemic WPV reservoirs, poliomyelitis outbreaks caused by circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) have emerged as a result of attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) virus regaining neurovirulence after prolonged circulation in underimmunized populations (3). In 2020, 32 countries reported cVDPV outbreaks (four type 1 [cVDPV1], 26 type 2 [cVDPV2] and two with outbreaks of both); 13 of these countries reported new outbreaks. The updated GPEI Polio Eradication Strategy 2022-2026 (4) includes expanded use of the type 2 novel oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2) to avoid new emergences of cVDPV2 during outbreak responses (3). The new strategy deploys other tactics, such as increased national accountability, and focused investments for overcoming the remaining barriers to eradication, including program disruptions and setbacks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Nutrition surveys in many refugee settings routinely estimate anemia prevalence in high-risk population groups. Given the lack of information on anemia design effects (DEFF) observed in surveys in these settings, the goal of this paper is to better understand the magnitude and distribution of DEFFs and intracluster correlation coefficients (ICCs) in order to inform future survey design. METHODS: Two-stage cluster surveys conducted during 2013-2016 were included if they measured hemoglobin in refugee children aged 6-59 months and/or non-pregnant women aged 15-49 years. Prevalence of anemia, anemia DEFFs and ICCs, mean cluster size, number of clusters, and total sample size were calculated per-survey for non-pregnant women and children. Non-parametric tests were used to assess differences and correlations of ICC and DEFF between women and children and inter-regional differences. RESULTS: Eighty-seven unique cluster surveys from nine countries were included in this analysis. More than 90% of all surveys had ICC values for anemia below 0.10. Median ICC for children was 0.032 (IQR: 0.015-0.048), not significantly different from that observed for non-pregnant women for whom the median was 0.024 (IQR: -0.002-0.055). DEFFs were significantly higher for children [1.54 (IQR: 1.21-1.82)] versus women [1.20 (IQR: 0.99-1.46)]. Regional differences in DEFFs and ICCs were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Both ICCs and DEFF were relatively small for both non-pregnant women and preschool children and fall in a narrow range. Differences in ICCs between women and children were non-significant, suggesting similar inter-cluster distributions of anemia; significant differences in DEFF were likely attributable to differing cluster sizes. Given regional differences in both ICCs and DEFFs, location-specific values are preferred. However, in the absence of other context-specific information, we suggest using DEFFs of 1.4-1.8 if mean cluster size is around 20, and DEFFs of 1.2-1.4 if mean cluster size is around 10.

When the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established in 1988, an estimated 350,000 poliomyelitis cases were reported worldwide. In 2020, 140 wild poliovirus (WPV) cases were confirmed, representing a 99.99% reduction since 1988. WPV type 1 transmission remains endemic in only two countries (Pakistan and Afghanistan), but outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) occurred in 33 countries during 2019-2020 (1,2). Poliovirus transmission is detected primarily through syndromic surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) among children aged <15 years, with confirmation by laboratory testing of stool specimens. Environmental surveillance supplements AFP surveillance and plays an increasingly important role in detecting poliovirus transmission. Within 2 weeks of COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic (3), GPEI recommended continuing surveillance activities with caution and paused all polio supplementary immunization activities (4). This report summarizes surveillance performance indicators for 2019 and 2020 in 42 priority countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission and updates previous reports (5). In 2020, 48% of priority countries* in the African Region, 90% in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, and 40% in other regions met AFP surveillance performance indicators nationally. The number of priority countries rose from 40 in 2019 to 42 in 2020.(†) Analysis of 2019-2020 AFP surveillance data from 42 countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission indicates that national and subnational nonpolio AFP rates and stool specimen adequacy declined in many priority countries, particularly in the African Region, suggesting a decline in surveillance sensitivity and quality. The findings in this report can be used to guide improvements to restore a sensitive surveillance system that can track poliovirus transmission and provide evidence of interruption of transmission.

Firefighter hoods must provide protection from elevated temperatures and products of combustion (e.g. particulate) while simultaneously being wearable (comfortable and not interfering with firefighting activities). The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact of (1) hood design (traditional knit hood vs particulate-blocking hood), (2) repeated laundering, and (3) hood removal method (traditional vs overhead doffing) on (a) protection from soot contamination on the neck, (b) heat stress and (c) wearability measures. Using a fireground exposure simulator, 24 firefighters performed firefighting activities in realistic smoke and heat conditions using a new knit hood, new particulate-blocking hood and laundered particulate-blocking hood. Overall, soot contamination levels measured from neck skin were lower when wearing the laundered particulate-blocking hoods compared to new knit hoods, and when using the overhead hood removal process. No significant differences in skin temperature, core temperature, heart rate or wearability measures were found between the hood conditions. Practitioner Summary: The addition of a particulate-blocking layer to firefighters' traditional two-ply hood was found to reduce the PAH contamination reaching the neck but did not affect heat stress measurements or thermal perceptions. Modifying the process for hood removal resulted in a larger reduction in neck skin contamination than design modification. Abbreviations: ANOVA: analysis of variance; B: new particulate-blocking hood and PPE (PPE configuration); FES: fireground exposure simulator; GI: gastrointestinal; K: new knit hood and PPE (PPE configuration); L: laundered particulate-blocking hood and PPE (PPE configuration); LOD: limit of detection; MLE: maximum likelihood estimation; NFPA: National fire protection association; PAH: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon; PPE: personal protective equipment; SCBA: self-contained breathing apparatus; THL: total heat loss; TPP: thermal protective performance.

Delays in achieving the global eradication of wild poliovirus transmission continue to postpone subsequent cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use. Countries must stop OPV use to end all cases of poliomyelitis, including vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP) and cases caused by vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs). The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated global cessation of all type 2 OPV (OPV2) use in routine immunization in 2016 but did not successfully end the transmission of type 2 VDPVs (VDPV2s), and consequently continues to use type 2 OPV (OPV2) for outbreak response activities. Using an updated global poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model, we characterize outbreak response options for 2019-2029 related to responding to VDPV2 outbreaks with a genetically stabilized novel OPV (nOPV2) strain or with the currently licensed monovalent OPV2 (mOPV2). Given uncertainties about the properties of nOPV2, we model different assumptions that appear consistent with the evidence on nOPV2 to date. Using nOPV2 to respond to detected cases may reduce the expected VDPV and VAPP cases and the risk of needing to restart OPV2 use in routine immunization compared to mOPV2 use for outbreak response. The actual properties, availability, and use of nOPV2 will determine its effects on type 2 poliovirus transmission in populations. Even with optimal nOPV2 performance, countries and the GPEI would still likely need to restart OPV2 use in routine immunization in OPV-using countries if operational improvements in outbreak response to stop the transmission of cVDPV2s are not implemented effectively.