Studies consistently demonstrate that physical activity is inversely associated with postmenopausal breast cancer. Whether this association is stronger among non-hormone users or former users of menopausal hormone therapy (HT) is of interest given the marked decline in HT use since 2002. The Women's Contraceptive and Reproductive Experiences Study, a population-based case-control study of invasive breast cancer, recruited white women and black women ages 35-64 years and collected histories of lifetime recreational physical activity and HT use including estrogen-alone therapy (ET) and estrogen plus progestin therapy (EPT). Among postmenopausal women (1,908 cases, 2,013 control participants), breast cancer risk declined with increasing levels of lifetime physical activity among never HT users; among short-term HT users (fewer than 5 years); and among current ET users; P (trend) values ranged from 0.004 to 0.016. In contrast, physical activity had no significant association with risk among long-term and past HT users and among current EPT users. No statistical evidence of heterogeneity was demonstrated for duration or currency of HT use. Breast cancer risk decreases with increasing lifetime physical activity levels among postmenopausal women who have not used HT, have used HT for less than 5 years, or are current ET users, yet this study was unable to demonstrate statistically that HT use modifies the relationship between physical activity and breast cancer. With profound changes in HT use occurring since 2002, it will be important in future studies to learn whether or not any association between physical activity and breast cancer among former HT users is a function of time since last HT use.

INTRODUCTION: The association of breast cancer patients’ mortality with estrogen receptor (ER) status (ER + versus ER-) has been well studied. However, little attention has been paid to the relationship between the quantitative measures of ER expression and mortality. METHODS: We evaluated the association between semi-quantitative, immunohistochemical staining of ER in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded breast carcinomas and breast cancer-specific mortality risk in an observational cohort of invasive breast cancer in 681 white women and 523 black women ages 35-64 years at first diagnosis of invasive breast cancer, who were followed for a median of 10 years. The quantitative measures of ER examined here included the percentage of tumor cell nuclei positively stained for ER, ER Histo (H)-score, and a score based on an adaptation of an equation presented by Cuzick and colleagues, which combines weighted values of ER H-score, percentage of tumor cell nuclei positively stained for the progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) results. This is referred to as the ER/PR/HER2 score. RESULTS: After controlling for age at diagnosis, race, study site, tumor stage, and histologic grade in multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, both percentage of tumor cell nuclei positively stained for ER (Ptrend = 0.0003) and the ER H-score (Ptrend = 0.0004) were inversely associated with breast cancer-specific mortality risk. The ER/PR/HER2 score was positively associated with breast cancer-specific mortality risk in women with ER + tumor (Ptrend = 0.001). Analyses by race revealed that ER positivity was associated with reduced risk of breast cancer-specific mortality in white women and black women. The two quantitative measures for ER alone provided additional discrimination in breast cancer-specific mortality risk only among white women with ER + tumors (both Ptrend ≤ 0.01) while the ER/PR/HER2 score provided additional discrimination for both white women (Ptrend = 0.01) and black women (Ptrend = 0.03) with ER + tumors. CONCLUSIONS: Our data support quantitative immunohistochemical measures of ER, especially the ER/PR/HER2 score, as a more precise predictor for breast cancer-specific mortality risk than a simple determination of ER positivity.

The effort to eradicate Dracunculus medinensis, the etiologic agent of dracunculiasis, or Guinea worm disease, began at CDC in 1980. In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million global cases in 20 African and Asian countries, the World Health Assembly called for dracunculiasis elimination. The Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP) was established to help countries with endemic dracunculiasis reach this goal. GWEP is led by The Carter Center and supported by partners, including the countries with endemic disease, CDC, UNICEF, and the World Health Organization. Since 2012, infections in dogs, cats, and baboons have posed a new challenge for GWEP, as have ongoing civil unrest and insecurity in some areas. As of June 2024, dracunculiasis remained endemic in five countries (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan). Fourteen human cases and 886 animal infections occurred, including 407 dogs in Chad and 248 dogs in Cameroon, reported in 2023, and three human cases and 297 animal infections reported during January-June 2024. Animal infections, primarily in dogs in Cameroon and Chad, and impeded access due to civil unrest and insecurity in Mali, threaten the near-term possibility of global eradication. Nevertheless, countries appear poised to reach zero cases.

CONTEXT: Multisector community partnerships play a pivotal role in public health strategy for understanding and addressing social determinants of health (SDOH) and promoting health equity. The work of these partnerships is well aligned with building community resilience. PROGRAM: The Year 2 Improving Social Determinants of Health-Getting Further Faster (GFF) retrospective evaluation was designed to gather practice-based evidence that can inform future community-driven partnerships to improve chronic disease outcomes and advance health equity by addressing social determinants of health (SDOH). IMPLEMENTATION: This paper sought to determine how the efforts of multisector community partnerships could also support community resilience. Guided by CDC's Framework for Program Evaluation in Public Health and health equity principles, the GFF evaluation engaged 14 Multisector Community Partnerships to better understand how their SDOH interventions contribute to community changes that improve chronic diseases and advance health equity. Data collection included qualitative discussions along with additional quantitative analyses of SDOH outcomes, costs, and prevention impacts. This paper focuses on insights gathered from qualitative discussions (2 virtual 60-minute discussions with members of each of the 14 Partnerships) around community resilience. EVALUATION: Results from qualitative discussions demonstrate how Partnerships' SDOH efforts created parallel opportunities for nurturing community resilience. For example, Partnerships engaged community members in the design and implementation of SDOH interventions in ways that nurtured a sense of belonging and empowerment to shape their community. To further build community resilience, Partnerships mentioned the importance of sustained and flexible funding, help building stronger partnerships, and a shared goal to build resilience and engage community members. DISCUSSION: Findings indicate that community partnerships working to address SDOH can drive reciprocal improvements in community resilience-contributions that are critical for advancing health equity. Partnerships suggested that health departments may have opportunities to enhance community resilience through their role as funder, facilitator, and convener.

In April 2023, an outbreak of acute hepatitis was reported in the Nazareth internally displaced persons camp in South Sudan. IgM serology-based screening suggested the likely etiologic agent to be Hepatitis E virus (HEV). In this study, plasma specimens collected from anti-HEV IgM-positive cases were subjected to additional RT-qPCR testing and sequencing of extracted nucleic acids, resulting in the recovery of five full and eight partial HEV genomes. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic reconstruction confirmed the genomes belong to HEV genotype 1. Using distance-based methods, we show that genotype 1 is best split into three sub-genotypes instead of the previously proposed seven, and that these sub-genotypes are geographically restricted. The South Sudanese sequences confidently cluster within sub-genotype 1e, endemic to northeast, central, and east Africa. Bayesian Inference of phylogeny incorporating sampling dates shows that this new outbreak is not directly descended from other recent local outbreaks for which sequence data is available. However, the analysis suggests that sub-genotype 1e has been consistently and cryptically circulating locally for at least the past half century and that the known outbreaks are often not directly descended from one another. The ongoing presence of HEV, combined with poor sanitation and hygiene in the conflict-affected areas in the region, place vulnerable populations at risk for infection and its more serious effects, including progression to fulminant hepatitis.

A comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution and correlates of infection are key for the planning of disease control programs and assessing the feasibility of elimination and/or eradication. In this work, we used species distribution modeling to predict the environmental suitability of the Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) and identify important climatic and sociodemographic risk factors. Using Guinea worm surveillance data collected by the Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) from 2010 to 2022 in combination with remotely sensed climate and sociodemographic correlates of infection within an ensemble machine learning framework, we mapped the environmental suitability of Guinea worm infection in Chad. The same analytical framework was also used to ascertain the contribution and influence of the identified climatic risk factors. Spatial distribution maps showed predominant clustering around the southern regions and along the Chari River. We also identified areas predicted to be environmentally suitable for infection. Of note are districts near the western border with Cameroon and southeastern border with Central African Republic. Key environmental correlates of infection as identified by the model were proximity to permanent rivers and inland lakes, farmlands, land surface temperature, and precipitation. This work provides a comprehensive model of the spatial distribution of Guinea worm infections in Chad 2010-2022 and sheds light on potential environmental correlates of infection. As the CGWEP moves toward elimination, the methods and results in this study will inform surveillance activities and help optimize the allocation of intervention resources.

Dracunculiasis, also known as Guinea worm disease, is targeted to become the second human disease and first parasitic infection to be eradicated. The global Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP), through community-based interventions, reduced the burden of disease from an estimated 3.5 million cases per year in 1986 to only 13 human cases in 2022. Despite progress, in 2012 Guinea worm disease was detected in domesticated dogs and later in domesticated cats and baboons. Without previous development of any Guinea worm therapeutics, diagnostic tests to detect pre-patent Guinea worm infection, or environmental surveillance tools, the emergence of Guinea worm disease in animal hosts-a threat to eradication-motivated an assessment of evidence gaps and research opportunities. This gap analysis informed the refinement of a robust research agenda intended to generate new evidence and identify additional tools for national GWEPs and to better align the global GWEP with a 2030 Guinea worm eradication certification target. This paper outlines the rationale for the development and expansion of the global GWEP Research Agenda and summarizes the results of the gap analysis that was conducted to identify Guinea worm-related research needs and opportunities. We describe five work streams informed by the research gap analysis that underpin the GWEP Research Agenda and address eradication endgame challenges through the employment of a systems-informed One Health approach. We also discuss the infrastructure in place to disseminate new evidence and monitor research results as well as plans for the continual review of evidence and research priorities.

Multiple factors may influence parental vaccine hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and routine childhood immunizations (RCIs). Using the United States National Immunization Survey-Child COVID Module data collected from parents/guardians of children aged 5-11 years, this cross-sectional study (1) identified the trends and prevalence estimates of parental hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and RCIs, (2) examined the relationship between hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and RCIs, and (3) assessed trends in parental hesitancy towards RCIs by sociodemographic characteristics and behavioral and social drivers of COVID-19 vaccination. From November 2021 to July 2022, 54,329 parents or guardians were interviewed. During this 9-month period, the proportion of parents hesitant about pediatric COVID-19 vaccines increased by 15.8 percentage points (24.8% to 40.6%). Additionally, the proportion of parents who reported RCIs hesitancy increased by 4.7 percentage points from November 2021 to May 2022 but returned to baseline by July 2022. Over nine months, parents' concerns about pediatric COVID-19 infections declined; however, parents were increasingly worried about pediatric COVID-19 vaccine safety and overall importance. Furthermore, pediatric COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was more prevalent among parents of children who were White (43.2%) versus Black (29.3%) or Hispanic (26.9%) and those residing in rural (51.3%) compared to urban (28.9%) areas. In contrast, RCIs hesitancy was higher among parents of children who were Black (32.0%) versus Hispanic (24.5%) or White (23.6%). Pediatric COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was 2-6 times as prevalent among parents who were RCIs hesitant compared to those who were RCIs non-hesitant. This positive correlation between parental hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and RCIs was observed for all demographic and psychosocial factors for unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios. Parent-provider interactions should increase vaccine confidence, shape social norms, and facilitate behavior change to promote pediatric vaccination rates.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) received surveillance data on how many people tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, but there was little information about what individuals did to mitigate transmission. To fill the information gap, we conducted an online, probability-based survey among a nationally representative panel of adults living in the United States to better understand the behaviors of individuals following a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. Given the low response rates commonly associated with panel surveys, we assessed how well the survey data aligned with CDC surveillance data from March, 2020 to March, 2022. We used CDC surveillance data to calculate monthly aggregated COVID-19 case counts and compared these to monthly COVID-19 case counts captured by our survey during the same period. We found high correlation between our overall survey data estimates and monthly case counts reported to the CDC during the analytic period (r: +0.94; p < 0.05). When stratified according to demographic characteristics, correlations remained high. These correlations strengthened our confidence that the panel survey participants were reflective of the cases reported to CDC and demonstrated the potential value of panel surveys to inform decision making.

In a recent article, Gebre1 suggests that endemic countries should lead in deciding on disease eradication initiatives and asserts that ‘elimination as a public health problem’ is the preferred option because eradication occurs at the expense of other health programs and weakens fragile health systems. The author's primary example is dracunculiasis (Guinea worm) eradication, but he fails to take into account that vertical disease elimination and eradication programs also strengthen health systems overall. Eradication means permanent reduction to an incidence of zero of a disease worldwide, while elimination as a public health problem means minimal disease incidence but control measures are still necessary.

BACKGROUND: In low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), neonatal healthcare-associated infections (HAI) are associated with increased morbidity, mortality, hospital stay, and costs. When resources are limited, addressing HAI through infection prevention and control (IPC) requires prioritizing interventions to maximize impact. However, little is known about the gaps in LMIC that contribute most to HAI. METHODS: A literature review was conducted to identify the leading IPC gaps contributing to neonatal HAIs in intensive care units and specialty care wards in LMIC. Additionally, a panel of 21 global experts in neonatology and IPC participated in an in-person modified Delphi process to achieve consensus on the relative importance of these gaps as contributors to HAI. RESULTS: Thirteen IPC gaps were identified and summarized into four main categories: facility policies such as prioritizing a patient safety culture and maintaining facility capacity, general healthcare worker behaviors such as hand hygiene and proper device insertion and maintenance, specialty healthcare worker behaviors such as cleaning and reprocessing of medical equipment, and infrastructural considerations such as adequate medical equipment and hand hygiene supplies. CONCLUSIONS: Through a modified Delphi process, we identified the leading IPC gaps contributing to neonatal HAIs; this information can assist policymakers, public health officials, researchers, and clinicians to prioritize areas for further study or intervention.

During the COVID-19 vaccination rollout from March 2021- December 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funded 110 primary and 1051 subrecipient partners at the national, state, local, and community-based level to improve COVID-19 vaccination access, confidence, demand, delivery, and equity in the United States. The partners implemented evidence-based strategies among racial and ethnic minority populations, rural populations, older adults, people with disabilities, people with chronic illness, people experiencing homelessness, and other groups disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. CDC also expanded existing partnerships with healthcare professional societies and other core public health partners, as well as developed innovative partnerships with organizations new to vaccination, including museums and libraries. Partners brought COVID-19 vaccine education into farm fields, local fairs, churches, community centers, barber and beauty shops, and, when possible, partnered with local healthcare providers to administer COVID-19 vaccines. Inclusive, hyper-localized outreach through partnerships with community-based organizations, faith-based organizations, vaccination providers, and local health departments was critical to increasing COVID-19 vaccine access and building a broad network of trusted messengers that promoted vaccine confidence. Data from monthly and quarterly REDCap reports and monthly partner calls showed that through these partnerships, more than 295,000 community-level spokespersons were trained as trusted messengers and more than 2.1 million COVID-19 vaccinations were administered at new or existing vaccination sites. More than 535,035 healthcare personnel were reached through outreach strategies. Quality improvement interventions were implemented in healthcare systems, long-term care settings, and community health centers resulting in changes to the clinical workflow to incorporate COVID-19 vaccine assessments, recommendations, and administration or referrals into routine office visits. Funded partners' activities improved COVID-19 vaccine access and addressed community concerns among racial and ethnic minority groups, as well as among people with barriers to vaccination due to chronic illness or disability, older age, lower income, or other factors.

The effort to eradicate Dracunculus medinensis, the etiologic agent of dracunculiasis, or Guinea worm disease, commenced at CDC in 1980. In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million cases worldwide in 20 African and Asian countries, the World Health Assembly called for dracunculiasis elimination. The Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP) was established to help countries with endemic dracunculiasis reach this goal. GWEP is led by The Carter Center and supported by partners that include the World Health Organization, UNICEF, and CDC. In 2012, D. medinensis infections were unexpectedly confirmed in Chadian dogs, and since then, infections in dogs, cats, and baboons have posed a new challenge for GWEP, as have ongoing civil unrest and insecurity in some areas. By 2022, dracunculiasis was endemic in five countries (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan), with only 13 human cases identified, the lowest yearly total ever reported. Animal infections, however, were not declining at the same rate: 686 animal infections were reported in 2022, including 606 (88%) in dogs in Chad. Despite these unanticipated challenges as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, countries appear close to reaching the eradication goal. GWEP will continue working with country programs to address animal infections, civil unrest, and insecurity, that challenge the eradication of Guinea worm.

OBJECTIVES: To develop, evaluate, and explore the use of a pediatric ordinal score as a potential clinical trial outcome metric in children hospitalized with acute hypoxic respiratory failure caused by viral respiratory infections. DESIGN: We modified the World Health Organization Clinical Progression Scale for pediatric patients (CPS-Ped) and assigned CPS-Ped at admission, days 2-4, 7, and 14. We identified predictors of clinical improvement (day 14 CPS-Ped ≤ 2 or a three-point decrease) using competing risks regression and compared clinical improvement to hospital length of stay (LOS) and ventilator-free days. We estimated sample sizes (80% power) to detect a 15% clinical improvement. SETTING: North American pediatric hospitals. PATIENTS: Three cohorts of pediatric patients with acute hypoxic respiratory failure receiving intensive care: two influenza (pediatric intensive care influenza [PICFLU], n = 263, 31 sites; PICFLU vaccine effectiveness [PICFLU-VE], n = 143, 17 sites) and one COVID-19 (n = 237, 47 sites). INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Invasive mechanical ventilation rates were 71.4%, 32.9%, and 37.1% for PICFLU, PICFLU-VE, and COVID-19 with less than 5% mortality for all three cohorts. Maximum CPS-Ped (0 = home at respiratory baseline to 8 = death) was positively associated with hospital LOS (p < 0.001, all cohorts). Across the three cohorts, many patients' CPS-Ped worsened after admission (39%, 18%, and 49%), with some patients progressing to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (19%, 11%, and 17%). Despite this, greater than 76% of patients across cohorts clinically improved by day 14. Estimated sample sizes per group using CPS-Ped to detect a percentage increase in clinical improvement were feasible (influenza 15%, n = 142; 10%, n = 225; COVID-19, 15% n = 208) compared with mortality (n > 21,000, all), and ventilator-free days (influenza 15%, n = 167). CONCLUSIONS: The CPS-Ped can be used to describe the time course of illness and threshold for clinical improvement in hospitalized children and adolescents with acute respiratory failure from viral infections. This outcome measure could feasibly be used in clinical trials to evaluate in-hospital recovery.

When new pathogens emerge, numerous questions arise about their future spread, some of which can be addressed with probabilistic forecasts. The many uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among model structures and assumptions, however. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance of a suite of 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about the role of human mobility in driving transmission, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of times the virus was introduced. All models used the same core transmission model and the same iterative data assimilation algorithm to generate forecasts. By assessing forecast performance through time using logarithmic scoring with ensemble weighting, we found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. In particular, spatially coupled models had higher ensemble weights in the early and late phases of the epidemic, whereas non-spatial models had higher ensemble weights at the peak of the epidemic. We compared forecast performance of the equally-weighted ensemble model to each individual model and identified a trade-off whereby certain individual models outperformed the ensemble model early in the epidemic but the ensemble model outperformed all individual models on average. On balance, our results suggest that suites of models that span uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts in the context of emerging infectious diseases.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementRJO acknowledges support from an Eck Institute for Global Health Fellowship, GLOBES grant, Arthur J. Schmitt Fellowship, and the UNICEF Office of Innovation. MUGK is supported by The Branco Weiss Fellowship - Society in Science, administered by the ETH Zurich and acknowledges funding from the Oxford Martin School and the European Union Horizon 2020 project MOOD (\#874850). SCH is supported by the Wellcome Trust (220414/Z/20/Z).Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:No IRB approvals were necessary.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesThe mobile phone data set used in this study is proprietary and subject to strict privacy regulations. The access to this data set was granted after reaching a non-disclosure agreement with the proprietor, who anonymized and aggregated the original data before giving access to the authors. The mobile phone is available on request after negotiation of a non-disclosure agreement with the company. The contact person is Enrique Frias-Martinez (efm{at}tid.es). Epidemiological, meteorological, and demographic data are available from Siraj et al.2018 and additionally available on https://github.com/roidtman/eid_ensemble_forecasting. https://www.github.com/roidtman/eid_ensemble_forecasting

Background Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) was detected in Chad in 2010 after a supposed ten year absence, posing a challenge to the global eradication effort. Initiation of a village-based surveillance system in 2012 revealed a substantial number of dogs infected with Guinea worm, raising questions about paratenic hosts and cross-species transmission.Methodology/Principal Findings We coupled genomic and surveillance data from 2012-2018 cases to investigate the modes of transmission between hosts and the geographic connectivity for genetically similar worm populations. Eighty-six variants across three loci on the mitochondrial genome identified 41 genetically distinct worm genotypes. Spatiotemporal modeling reveals genetically identical worms are within a median range of 18.6 kilometers of each other, but largely within approximately 50 kilometers. Genetically identical worms vary in their degree of spatial clustering, suggesting there may be different factors that favor or constrain transmission. Each worm is surrounded by five to ten genetically distinct worms within a 50 kilometer radius. In an independent population, we show that more variants revealed in whole mitochondrial genome data improved the discrimination between worm pairs.Conclusions/Significance In the largest study linking genetic and surveillance data to date of Guinea worm cases in Chad, we show genetic similarity and modeling can contribute to understanding local transmission. The overlap of genetically distinct worms in quantitatively identified transmission ranges highlights the necessity for genomic tools to link cases. The improved discrimination between worm pairs from variants identified across the complete mitochondrial genome indicates expanding genomic markers could link cases at a finer scale. These results suggest that scaling up genomic surveillance for Guinea worm may provide additional value for programmatic decision-making critical for monitoring cases and intervention efficacy to achieve elimination.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementJR, GCC, HL, and JLP would like to thank Bill and Melinda Gates for their active support of the Institute for Disease Modeling and their sponsorship through the Global Good Fund. JAC was supported by funding from The Carter Center and Wellcome, via their core support for the Wellcome Sanger Institute (grant WT206194).Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:N/A; Worm collection and associated metadata are routine in country surveillance efforts.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesGenomic data and source code will be made available upon publication. Requests for epidemiological data that includes case coordinates must be submitted to and approved by the Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program.

Background HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) could reduce the disparities in HIV incidence among black men who have sex with men (BMSM) compared to white MSM (WMSM), but this may depend on progression through the PrEP care continuum.Methods We expanded our network-based mathematical model of HIV transmission for MSM, which simulates PrEP based on CDC’s clinical practice guidelines, to include race-stratified transitions through the PrEP continuum steps of awareness, access, prescription, adherence, and retention. Continuum parameters were estimated based on published incidence cohorts and PrEP open-label studies. Counterfactuals included a no-PrEP reference scenario, and intervention scenarios in which the BMSM continuum step parameters were modified.Results Implementing PrEP according to the observed BMSM continuum was projected to result in 8.4% of all BMSM on PrEP at year 10, yielding a 23% decline in incidence (HR = 0.77). On an absolute scale, the racial disparity in incidence in this scenario was 4.95 per 100 person-years at risk (PYAR), a 19% decline from the 6.08 per 100 PYAR disparity in the reference scenario. If BMSM continuum parameters were equal to WMSM values, 17.7% of BMSM would be on PrEP, yielding a 47% decline in incidence (HR = 0.53) and a disparity of 3.30 per 100 PYAR (a 46% decline in the disparity).Conclusions PrEP could lower HIV incidence overall and reduce absolute racial disparities between BMSM and WMSM. Interventions addressing the racial gaps in the PrEP continuum will be needed to further decrease these HIV disparities.

The impact of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness is not well understood. We compared longitudinal viral shedding dynamics in unvaccinated and fully vaccinated adults. SARS-CoV-2-infected adults were enrolled within 5 days of symptom onset and nasal specimens were self-collected daily for two weeks and intermittently for an additional two weeks. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load and infectious virus were analyzed relative to symptom onset stratified by vaccination status. We tested 1080 nasal specimens from 52 unvaccinated adults enrolled in the pre-Delta period and 32 fully vaccinated adults with predominantly Delta infections. While we observed no differences by vaccination status in maximum RNA levels, maximum infectious titers and the median duration of viral RNA shedding, the rate of decay from the maximum RNA load was faster among vaccinated; maximum infectious titers and maximum RNA levels were highly correlated. Furthermore, amongst participants with infectious virus, median duration of infectious virus detection was reduced from 7.5 days (IQR: 6.0-9.0) in unvaccinated participants to 6 days (IQR: 5.0-8.0) in those vaccinated (P=0.02). Accordingly, the odds of shedding infectious virus from days 6 to 12 post-onset were lower among vaccinated participants than unvaccinated participants (OR 0.42 95% CI 0.19-0.89). These results indicate that vaccination had reduced the probability of shedding infectious virus after 5 days from symptom onset. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Background Belief in immunity from prior infection and concern that vaccines might not protect against new variants are contributors to vaccine hesitancy. We assessed effectiveness of full and partial COVID-19 vaccination against reinfection when Delta was the predominant variant in New York City. Methods We conducted a case-control study in which case-patients with reinfection during June 15-August 31, 2021 and control subjects with no reinfection were matched (1:3) on age, sex, timing of initial positive test in 2020, and neighborhood poverty level. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate matched odds ratios (mOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Of 349,598 adult residents who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020, did not test positive again >90 days after initial positive test through June 15, 2021, and did not die before June 15, 2021, 1,067 were reinfected during June 15-August 31, 2021. Of 1,048 with complete matching criteria data, 499 (47.6%) were known to be symptomatic for COVID-19-like-illness, and 75 (7.2%) were hospitalized. Unvaccinated individuals, compared with fully vaccinated individuals, had elevated odds of reinfection (mOR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.90, 2.61), of symptomatic reinfection (mOR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.72, 2.74), and of reinfection with hospitalization (mOR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.43, 4.69). Partially versus fully vaccinated individuals had 1.58 (95% CI: 1.22, 2.06) times the odds of reinfection. All three vaccines authorized or approved for use in the U.S. were similarly effective. Conclusion Among adults with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, vaccination reduced odds of reinfections when the Delta variant predominated. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

INTRODUCTION: Focusing on subpopulations that express the intention to receive a COVID-19 vaccination but are unvaccinated may improve the yield of COVID-19 vaccination efforts. METHODS: A nationally representative sample of 789,658 U.S. adults aged 18 years participated in the National Immunization Survey Adult COVID Module from May 2021 to April 2022. The survey assessed respondents' COVID-19 vaccination status and intent by demographic characteristics (age, urbanicity, educational attainment, region, insurance, income, and race/ethnicity). This study compared composition and within-group estimates of those who responded that they definitely or probably will get vaccinated or are unsure (moveable middle) from the first and last month of data collection. RESULTS: Because vaccination uptake increased over the study period, the moveable middle declined among persons aged 18 years. Adults aged 18-39 years and suburban residents comprised most of the moveable middle in April 2022. Groups with the largest moveable middles in April 2022 included persons with no insurance (10%), those aged 18-29 years (8%), and those with incomes below poverty (8%), followed by non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (7%), non-Hispanic multiple or other race (6%), non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons (6%), non-Hispanic Black or African American persons (6%), those with below high school education (6%), those with high school education (5%), and those aged 30-39 years (5%). CONCLUSIONS: A sizable percentage of adults open to receiving COVID-19 vaccination remain in several demographic groups. Emphasizing engagement of persons who are unvaccinated in some racial/ethnic groups, aged 18-39 years, without health insurance, or with lower income may reach more persons open to vaccination.

In Reply We welcome the opportunity to discuss the interpretation of safety monitoring data regarding COVID-19 mRNA vaccine–associated myocarditis in the US. | | VAERS, which accepts reports of adverse events from clinicians, vaccine manufacturers, and the general public, is used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to investigate adverse events nationally. The large population of vaccinated persons in the US permits early detection of safety signals and estimation of adverse event reporting rates when data on vaccine doses administered are available, as is the case for COVID-19 vaccines. Thus, in our recent study1 we were able to report overall and stratified reporting rates, but not incidence rates. That is, we presented numbers of myocarditis cases reported to VAERS divided by vaccine doses administered. Clinicians are required to report serious adverse events, including hospitalizations. If all new cases are reported, then reporting rates can approximate incidence rates. Furthermore, if a reporting rate exceeds expected background incidence, it is reasonable to conclude that there is an increased risk, particularly if a reporting rate is substantially higher than a background rate. However, as Dr Weiss correctly points out, VAERS is a passive surveillance system dependent on spontaneous reporting, with both overreporting and underreporting possible. To minimize possible overreporting bias, CDC scientists reviewed available medical records and attempted to interview treating physicians for each potential case. Furthermore, given that our reporting rates were similar to incidence rates for vaccine-associated myocarditis reported in Israeli studies, it is unlikely that there was substantial underreporting.2,3 Some of the differences in rates from our study compared with Israeli studies might be explained by differing demographics or our use of a 7-day postvaccination period to detect cases vs a 21-day period used in the Israeli studies.

Background: The objective of this study was to document the worldwide decline of dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease, GWD) burden, expressed as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from 1990 to 2016, as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study 2016 (GBD 2016). While the annual number of cases of GWD have been consistently reported by WHO since the 1990s, the burden of disability due to GWD has not previously been quantified in GBD. Methods: The incidence of GWD was modeled for each endemic country using annual national case reports. A literature search was conducted to characterize the presentation of GWD, translate the clinical symptoms into health sequelae, and then assign an average duration to the infection. Prevalence measures by sequelae were multiplied by disability weights to estimate DALYs. Results: The total DALYs attributed to GWD across all endemic countries (n=21) in 1990 was 50,725 (95% UI: 35,265-69,197) and decreased to 0.9 (95% UI: 0.5-1.4) in 2016. A cumulative total of 12,900 DALYs were attributable to GWD from 1990 to 2016. Conclusions: Using 1990 estimates of burden propagated forward, this analysis suggests that between 990,000 to 1.9 million DALYs have been averted as a result of the eradication program over the past 27 years.

The COVID-19 pandemic, a first in many generations disaster, has highlighted gaps globally among graduated social work providers. This qualitative study of (N = 12) inpatient social workers who provided care during the pandemic, strives to suggest specific disaster-related content to inform the MSW curricula. Thematic analysis suggested including: 1) self-care in a prolonged disaster; 2) responding to nuances of the job; 3) expansion and integration of practicum specialties; 4) preparing for the effects of another pandemic; 5) advocating for yourself; and 6) the public’s view of social workers. Findings could potentially inform the content that is taught to MSW students post-pandemic. © 2023 Taylor & Francis.

INTRODUCTION: External Quality Assessment (EQA) schemes are designed to provide a snapshot of laboratory proficiency, identifying issues and providing feedback to improve laboratory performance and inter-laboratory agreement in testing. Currently there are no international EQA schemes for seasonal influenza serology testing. Here we present a feasibility study for conducting an EQA scheme for influenza serology methods. METHODS: We invited participant laboratories from industry, contract research organizations (CROs), academia and public health institutions who regularly conduct hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and microneutralization (MN) assays and have an interest in serology standardization. In total 16 laboratories returned data including 19 data sets for HAI assays and 9 data sets for MN assays. RESULTS: Within run analysis demonstrated good laboratory performance for HAI, with intrinsically higher levels of intra-assay variation for MN assays. Between run analysis showed laboratory and strain specific issues, particularly with B strains for HAI, whilst MN testing was consistently good across labs and strains. Inter-laboratory variability was higher for MN assays than HAI, however both assays showed a significant reduction in inter-laboratory variation when a human sera pool is used as a standard for normalization. DISCUSSION: This study has received positive feedback from participants, highlighting the benefit such an EQA scheme would have on improving laboratory performance, reducing inter laboratory variation and raising awareness of both harmonized protocol use and the benefit of biological standards for seasonal influenza serology testing.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 vaccines are safe, effective, and widely available, but many adults in the U.S. have not been vaccinated for COVID-19. This study examined the associations between behavioral and social drivers of vaccination with COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the U.S. adults and their prevalence by region. METHODS: A nationally representative sample of U.S. adults participated in a cross-sectional telephone survey in August-November 2021; the analysis was conducted in January 2022. Survey questions assessed self-reported COVID-19 vaccine initiation, demographics, and behavioral and social drivers of vaccination. RESULTS: Among the 255,763 respondents, 76% received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine. Vaccine uptake was higher among respondents aged ≥75 years (94%), females (78%), and Asian non-Hispanic people (94%). The drivers of vaccination most strongly associated with uptake included higher anticipated regret from nonvaccination, risk perception, and confidence in vaccine safety and importance, followed by work- or school-related vaccination requirements, social norms, and provider recommendation (all p<0.05). The direction of association with uptake varied by reported level of difficulty in accessing vaccines. The prevalence of all of these behavioral and social drivers of vaccination was highest in the Northeast region and lowest in the Midwest and South. CONCLUSIONS: This nationally representative survey found that COVID-19 vaccine uptake was most strongly associated with greater anticipated regret, risk perception, and confidence in vaccine safety and importance, followed by vaccination requirements and social norms. Interventions that leverage these social and behavioral drivers of vaccination have the potential to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake and could be considered for other vaccine introductions.

By the end of 2021, approximately 15% of U.S. adults remained unvaccinated against COVID-19, and vaccination initiation rates had stagnated. We used unsupervised machine learning (K-means clustering) to identify clusters of unvaccinated respondents based on Behavioral and Social Drivers (BeSD) of COVID-19 vaccination and compared these clusters to vaccinated participants to better understand social/behavioral factors of non-vaccination. The National Immunization Survey Adult COVID Module collects data on U.S. adults from September 26-December 31,2021 (=187,756). Among all participants, 51.6% were male, with a mean age of 61years, and the majority were non-Hispanic White (62.2%), followed by Hispanic (17.2%), Black (11.9%), and others (8.7%). K-means clustering procedure was used to classify unvaccinated participants into three clusters based on 9 survey BeSD items, including items assessing COVID-19 risk perception, social norms, vaccine confidence, and practical issues. Among unvaccinated adults (N=23,397), 3 clusters were identified: the "Reachable" (23%), "Less reachable" (27%), and the "Least reachable" (50%). The least reachable cluster reported the lowest concern about COVID-19, mask-wearing behavior, perceived vaccine confidence, and were more likely to be male, non-Hispanic White, with no health conditions, from rural counties, have previously had COVID-19, and have not received a COVID-19 vaccine recommendation from a healthcare provider. This study identified, described, and compared the characteristics of the three unvaccinated subgroups. Public health practitioners, healthcare providers and community leaders can use these characteristics to better tailor messaging for each sub-population. Our findings may also help inform decisionmakers exploring possible policy interventions.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the benefit of frozen vs. fresh elective single embryo transfer using traditional and novel methods of controlling for confounding. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using data from the National Assisted Reproductive Technology Surveillance System. SETTING: Not applicable. PATIENT(S): A total of 44,750 women aged 20-35 years undergoing their first lifetime oocyte retrieval and embryo transfer in 2016-2017, who had ≥4 embryos cryopreserved. INTERVENTION(S): Fresh elective single embryo transfer and frozen elective single embryo transfer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): The primary outcome was a singleton live birth. Secondary outcomes included rates of total live birth (singleton plus multiple gestations), twin live birth, clinical intrauterine gestation, total pregnancy loss, biochemical pregnancy, and ectopic pregnancy. Outcomes for infants included gestational age at delivery, birth weight, and being small for gestational age. RESULT(S): The eligibility criteria were met by 6,324 fresh and 2,318 frozen cycles. Patients undergoing fresh and frozen transfer had comparable mean age (30.69 [standard deviation {SD} 0.08] years vs. 31.06 [SD 0.08] years) and body mass index (24.76 [SD 0.20] vs. 25.65 [SD 0.15]); however, women in the frozen cohort created more embryos (8.1 [SD 0.12] vs. 6.8 [SD 0.08]). Singleton live birth rates in the fresh vs. frozen groups were 51.4% vs. 48.8% (risk ratio 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.10). After adjustment with a log-linear regression model and propensity score analysis, the difference in singleton live birth rates remained nonsignificant (adjusted risk ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.97-1.14 and 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96-1.08, respectively). A novel dynamical model confirmed inherent fertility (probability of ever achieving a pregnancy) was balanced between groups (odds ratio, 1.23; 95% CI 0.78-1.95]). The per-cycle probability of singleton live birth was not different between groups (odds ratio 1.11 [95% CI 0.94-1.3]). CONCLUSION(S): In this retrospective cohort study of fresh vs. frozen elective single embryo transfer, there was no statistically significant difference in singleton live birth rate after adjustment using log-linear models and propensity score analysis. The successful application of a novel dynamical model, which incorporates multiple assisted reproductive technology cycles from the same woman as a surrogate for inherent fertility, offers a novel and complementary perspective for assessing interventions using national surveillance data.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about how the drivers of COVID-19 vaccination vary across the U.S. To inform vaccination outreach efforts, this study explores geographic variation in correlates of COVID-19 nonvaccination among adults. METHODS: Participants were a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults identified through random-digit dialing for the National Immunization Survey-Adult COVID Module. Analyses examined the geographic and temporal landscape of constructs in the Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination Framework among unvaccinated respondents from May 2021 to December 2021 (n=531,798) and sociodemographic and geographic disparities and Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination predictors of COVID-19 nonvaccination from October 2021 to December 2021 (n=187,756). RESULTS: National coverage with at least 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine was 79.3% by December 2021, with substantial geographic heterogeneity. Regions with the largest proportion of unvaccinated persons who would probably get a COVID-19 vaccine or were unsure resided in the Southeast and Midwest (Health and Human Services Regions 4 and 5). Both regions had similar temporal trends regarding concerns about COVID-19 and confidence in vaccine importance, although the Southeast had especially low confidence in vaccine safety in December 2021, lowest in Florida (5.5%) and highest in North Carolina (18.0%). The strongest Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination correlate of not receiving a COVID-19 vaccination was lower confidence in COVID-19 vaccine importance (adjusted prevalence ratio=5.19, 95% CI=4.93, 5.47; strongest in the Northeast, Southwest, and Mountain West and weakest in the Southeast and Midwest). Other Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination correlates also varied by region. CONCLUSIONS: Contributors to nonvaccination showed substantial geographic heterogeneity. Strategies to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake may need to be tailored regionally.

Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease), caused by the parasite Dracunculus medinensis, is acquired by drinking water containing small crustacean copepods (water fleas) infected with D. medinensis larvae. Recent evidence suggests that the parasite also appears to be transmitted by eating fish or other aquatic animals. About 1 year after infection, the worm typically emerges through the skin on a lower limb of the host, causing pain and disability (1). No vaccine or medicine is available to prevent or treat dracunculiasis. Eradication relies on case containment* to prevent water contamination and other interventions to prevent infection, including health education, water filtration, treatment of unsafe water with temephos (an organophosphate larvicide), and provision of safe drinking water (1,2). CDC began worldwide eradication efforts in October 1980, and in 1984 was designated by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the technical monitor of the Dracunculiasis Eradication Program (1). In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million cases(†) occurring annually in 20 African and Asian countries(§) (3), the World Health Assembly called for dracunculiasis elimination. The Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP),(¶) led by The Carter Center and supported by partners that include WHO, UNICEF, and CDC, began assisting ministries of health in countries with endemic disease. In 2021, a total of 15 human cases were identified and three were identified during January-June 2022. As of November 2022, dracunculiasis remained endemic in five countries (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan); cases reported in Cameroon were likely imported from Chad. Eradication efforts in these countries are challenged by infection in animals, the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest, and insecurity. Animal infections, mostly in domestic dogs, some domestic cats, and in Ethiopia, a few baboons, have now surpassed human cases, with 863 reported animal infections in 2021 and 296 during January-June 2022. During the COVID-19 pandemic all national GWEPs remained fully operational, implementing precautions to ensure safety of program staff members and community members. In addition, the progress toward eradication and effectiveness of interventions were reviewed at the 2021 and 2022 annual meetings of GWEP program managers, and the 2021 meeting of WHO's International Commission for the Certification of Dracunculiasis Eradication. With only 15 human cases identified in 2021 and three during January-June 2022, program efforts appear to be closer to reaching the goal of eradication. However, dog infections and impeded access because of civil unrest and insecurity in Mali and South Sudan continue to be the greatest challenges for the program. This report describes progress during January 2021-June 2022 and updates previous reports (2,4).