Last data update: Dec 02, 2024. (Total: 48272 publications since 2009)
Records 1-15 (of 15 Records) |
Query Trace: Suraratdecha C[original query] |
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HIV self-testing, PrEP, and drug resistance: some insights
Ochieng W , Suraratdecha C . Lancet HIV 2024 |
Cost-outcome analysis of HIV testing and counseling, linkage, and defaulter tracing services in Bukoba, Tanzania
Suraratdecha C , MacKellar D , Steiner C , Rwabiyago OE , Cham HJ , Msumi O , Maruyama H , Kundi G , Byrd J , Weber R , Mkemwa G , Kazaura K , Justman J , Rwebembera A . AIDS Care 2023 1-8 Effective services along the HIV continuum of care from HIV testing and counseling to linkage, and from linkage to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and retention, are key to improved health outcomes of persons living with HIV. A comprehensive analysis of the costs and outcomes of cascade services is needed to help allocate and prioritize resources to achieve UNAIDS targets. We evaluated the costs and population-level impact of a community-wide, integrated scale-up of testing, linkage, and defaulter-tracing programs implemented in Bukoba Municipal Council, Tanzania. Costs per identified HIV-positive client for provider-initiated, and home- and venue-based testing and counseling were $92.64 United States dollars (USD), $256.33 USD, and $281.57 USD, respectively. Costs per patient linked to HIV care and ART were $47.69 USD and $74.12 USD, respectively, during all ART-eligibility periods combined. Costs per defaulter traced and returned to HIV care were $47.56 USD and $206.77 USD, respectively. The provider-initiated testing and counseling was the most cost-effective modality. Testing approaches targeted to populations groups and geographic location with high testing positivity rates may improve the overall efficiency of testing services. The expansion of ART eligibility criteria and high linkage rate also result in efficiency gains and economies of scale of linkage services. |
Evaluation of community-based, mobile HIV-care, peer-delivered linkage case management in Manzini Region, Eswatini
Suraratdecha C , MacKellar D , Hlophe T , Dlamini M , Ujamaa D , Pals S , Dube L , Williams D , Byrd J , Mndzebele P , Behel S , Pathmanathan I , Mazibuko S , Tilahun E , Ryan C . Int J Environ Res Public Health 2022 20 (1) The success of antiretroviral therapy (ART) requires continuous engagement in care and optimal levels of adherence to achieve sustained HIV viral suppression. We evaluated HIV-care cascade costs and outcomes of a community-based, mobile HIV-care, peer-delivered linkage case-management program (CommLink) implemented in Manzini region, Eswatini. Abstraction teams visited referral facilities during July 2019-April 2020 to locate, match, and abstract the clinical data of CommLink clients diagnosed between March 2016 and March 2018. An ingredients-based costing approach was used to assess economic costs associated with CommLink. The estimated total CommLink costs were $2 million. Personnel costs were the dominant component, followed by travel, commodities and supplies, and training. Costs per client tested positive were $499. Costs per client initiated on ART within 7, 30, and 90 days of diagnosis were $2114, $1634, and $1480, respectively. Costs per client initiated and retained on ART 6, 12, and 18 months after diagnosis were $2343, $2378, and $2462, respectively. CommLink outcomes and costs can help inform community-based HIV testing, linkage, and retention programs in other settings to strengthen effectiveness and improve efficiency. |
Maximizing the impact of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention in Zambia by targeting high-risk men: A pre/post program evaluation
Lukobo-Durrell M , Aladesanmi L , Suraratdecha C , Laube C , Grund J , Mohan D , Kabila M , Kaira F , Habel M , Hines JZ , Mtonga H , Chituwo O , Conkling M , Chipimo PJ , Kachimba J , Toledo C . AIDS Behav 2022 26 (11) 3597-3606 A well-documented barrier to voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is financial loss due to the missed opportunity to work while undergoing and recovering from VMMC. We implemented a 2-phased outcome evaluation to explore how enhanced demand creation and financial compensation equivalent to 3 days of missed work influence uptake of VMMC among men at high risk of HIV exposure in Zambia. In Phase 1, we implemented human-centered design-informed interpersonal communication. In Phase 2, financial compensation of ZMW 200 (~ US$17) was added. The proportion of men undergoing circumcision was significantly higher in Phase 2 compared to Phase 1 (38% vs 3%). The cost of demand creation and compensation per client circumcised was $151.54 in Phase 1 and $34.93 in Phase 2. Financial compensation is a cost-effective strategy for increasing VMMC uptake among high-risk men in Zambia, and VMMC programs may consider similar interventions suited to their context. |
Antiretroviral therapy initiation and retention among clients who received peer-delivered linkage case management and standard linkage services, Eswatini, 2016-2020: retrospective comparative cohort study
MacKellar D , Hlophe T , Ujamaa D , Pals S , Dlamini M , Dube L , Suraratdecha C , Williams D , Byrd J , Tobias J , Mndzebele P , Behel S , Pathmanathan I , Mazibuko S , Tilahun E , Ryan C . Arch Public Health 2022 80 (1) 74 BACKGROUND: Persons living with HIV infection (PLHIV) who are diagnosed in community settings in sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to barriers to care that prevent or delay many from obtaining antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to assess if a package of peer-delivered linkage case management and treatment navigation services (CommLink) was more effective than peer-delivered counseling, referral, and telephone follow-up (standard linkage services, SLS) in initiating and retaining PLHIV on ART after diagnosis in community settings in Eswatini. HIV-test records of 773 CommLink and 769 SLS clients aged15years diagnosed between March 2016 and March 2018, matched by urban and rural settings of diagnosis, were selected for the study. CommLink counselors recorded resolved and unresolved barriers to care (e.g., perceived wellbeing, fear of partner response, stigmatization) during a median of 52days (interquartile range: 35-69) of case management. RESULTS: Twice as many CommLink than SLS clients initiated ART by 90days of diagnosis overall (88.4% vs. 37.9%, adjusted relative risk (aRR): 2.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.97, 2.77) and during test and treat when all PLHIV were eligible for ART (96.2% vs. 37.1%, aRR: 2.59, 95% CI: 2.20, 3.04). By 18months of diagnosis, 54% more CommLink than SLS clients were initiated and retained on ART (76.3% vs. 49.5%, aRR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.33, 1.79). Peer counselors helped resolve 896 (65%) of 1372 identified barriers of CommLink clients. Compared with clients with3 unresolved barriers to care, 42% (aRR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.68) more clients with 1-2 unresolved barriers, 44% (aRR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.66) more clients with all barriers resolved, and 54% (aRR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.30, 1.81) more clients who had no identified barriers were initiated and retained on ART by 18months of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: To improve early ART initiation and retention among PLHIV diagnosed in community settings, HIV prevention programs should consider providing a package of peer-delivered linkage case management and treatment navigation services. Clients with multiple unresolved barriers to care measured as part of that package should be triaged for differentiated linkage and retention services. |
Patient costs for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission and antiretroviral therapy services in public health facilities in Zimbabwe
Balachandra S , Suraratdecha C , Rogers JH , Ruangtragool L , Gonese E . PLoS One 2021 16 (8) e0256291 Zimbabwe has made large strides in addressing HIV. To ensure a continued robust response, a clear understanding of costs associated with its HIV program is critical. We conducted a cross-sectional evaluation in 2017 to estimate the annual average patient cost for accessing Prevention of Mother-To-Child Transmission (PMTCT) services (through antenatal care) and Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) services in Zimbabwe. Twenty sites representing different types of public health facilities in Zimbabwe were included. Data on patient costs were collected through in-person interviews with 414 ART and 424 PMTCT adult patients and through telephone interviews with 38 ART and 47 PMTCT adult patients who had missed their last appointment. The mean and median annual patient costs were examined overall and by service type for all participants and for those who paid any cost. Potential patient costs related to time lost were calculated by multiplying the total time to access services (travel time, waiting time, and clinic visit duration) by potential earnings (US$75 per month assuming 8 hours per day and 5 days per week). Mean annual patient costs for accessing services for the participants was US$20.00 [standard deviation (SD) = US$80.42, median = US$6.00, range = US$0.00-US$12,18.00] for PMTCT and US$18.73 (SD = US$58.54, median = US$8.00, range = US$0.00-US$ 908.00) for ART patients. The mean annual direct medical costs for PMTCT and ART were US$9.78 (SD = US$78.58, median = US$0.00, range = US$0.00-US$ 90) and US$7.49 (SD = US$60.00, median = US$0.00) while mean annual direct non-medical cost for US$10.23 (SD = US$17.35, median = US$4.00) and US$11.23 (SD = US$25.22, median = US$6.00, range = US$0.00-US$ 360.00). The PMTCT and ART costs per visit based on time lost were US$3.53 (US$1.13 to US$8.69) and US$3.43 (US$1.14 to US$8.53), respectively. The mean annual patient costs per person for PMTCT and ART in this evaluation will impact household income since PMTCT and ART services in Zimbabwe are supposed to be free. |
Making voluntary medical male circumcision services sustainable: Findings from Kenya's pilot models, baseline and year 1
Davis SM , Owuor N , Odoyo-June E , Wambua J , Omanga E , Lukobo M , Laube C , Mwandi Z , Suraratdecha C , Kioko UM , Rotich W , Kataka J , Ng'eno C , Mohan D , Toledo C , Aoko A , Anyango J , Oneya D , Orenjuro K , Mgamb E , Serrem K , Juma A . PLoS One 2021 16 (6) e0252725 Voluntary medical male circumcision is a crucial HIV prevention program for men in sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya is one of the first countries to achieve high population coverage and seek to transition the program to a more sustainable structure designed to maintain coverage while making all aspects of service provision domestically owned and implemented. Using pre-defined metrics, we created and evaluated three models of circumcision service delivery (static, mobile and mixed) to identify which had potential for sustaining high circumcision coverage among 10-14-year-olds group, a historically high-demand and accessible age group, at the lowest possible cost. We implemented each model in two distinct geographic areas, one in Siaya and the other in Migori county, and assessed multiple aspects of each model's sustainability. These included numerical achievements against targets designed to reach 80% coverage over two years; quantitative expenditure outcomes including unit expenditure plus its primary drivers; and qualitative community perception of program quality and sustainability based on Likert scale. Outcome values at baseline were compared with those for year one of model implementation using bivariate linear regression, unpaired t-tests and Wilcoxon rank tests as appropriate. Across models, numerical target achievement ranged from 45-140%, with the mixed models performing best in both counties. Unit expenditures varied from approximately $57 in both countries at baseline to $44-$124 in year 1, with the lowest values in the mixed and static models. Mean key informant perception scores generally rose significantly from baseline to year 1, with a notable drop in the area of community engagement. Consistently low scores were in the aspects of domestic financing for service provision. Sustainability-focused circumcision service delivery models can successfully achieve target volumes at lower unit expenditures than existing models, but strategies for domestic financing remain a crucial challenge to address for long-term maintenance of the program. |
Costs of providing HIV care and optimal allocation of HIV resources in Guyana
Suraratdecha C , Stuart RM , Edwards M , Moore R , Liu N , Wilson DP , Albalak R . PLoS One 2020 15 (10) e0238499 INTRODUCTION: Great strides in responding to the HIV epidemic have led to improved access to and uptake of HIV services in Guyana, a lower-middle-income country with a generalized HIV epidemic. Despite efforts to scale up HIV treatment and adopt the test and start strategy, little is known about costs of HIV services across the care cascade. METHODS: We collected cost data from the national laboratory and nine selected treatment facilities in five of the country's ten Regions, and estimated the costs associated with HIV testing and services (HTS) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) from a provider perspective from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016. We then used the unit costs to construct four resource allocation scenarios. In the first two scenarios, we calculated how close Guyana would currently be to its 2020 targets if the allocation of funding across programs and regions over 2017-2020 had (a) remained unchanged from latest-reported levels, or (b) been optimally distributed to minimize incidence and deaths. In the next two, we estimated the resources that would have been required to meet the 2020 targets if those resources had been distributed (a) according to latest-reported patterns, or (b) optimally to minimize incidence and deaths. RESULTS: The mean cost per test was US$15 and the mean cost per person tested positive was US$796. The mean annual cost per of maintaining established adult and pediatric patients on ART were US$428 and US$410, respectively. The mean annual cost of maintaining virally suppressed patients was US$648. Cost variation across sites may suggest opportunities for improvements in efficiency, or may reflect variation in facility type and patient volume. There may also be scope for improvements in allocative efficiency; we estimated a 28% reduction in the total resources required to meet Guyana's 2020 targets if funds had been optimally distributed to minimize infections and deaths. CONCLUSIONS: We provide the first estimates of costs along the HIV cascade in the Caribbean and assessed efficiencies using novel context-specific data on the costs associated with diagnostic, treatment, and viral suppression. The findings call for better targeting of services, and efficient service delivery models and resource allocation, while scaling up HIV services to maximize investment impact. |
Methods, outcomes, and costs of a 2.5 year comprehensive facility-and community-based HIV testing intervention in Bukoba Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2014-2017
Cham HJ , MacKellar D , Maruyama H , Rwabiyago OE , Msumi O , Steiner C , Kundi G , Weber R , Byrd J , Suraratdecha C , Mengistu T , Churi E , Pals S , Madevu-Matson C , Alexander G , Porter S , Kazaura K , Mbilinyi D , Morales F , Rutachunzibwa T , Justman J , Rwebembera A . PLoS One 2019 14 (5) e0215654 To diagnose >/=90% HIV-infected residents (diagnostic coverage), the Bukoba Combination Prevention Evaluation (BCPE) implemented provider-initiated (PITC), home- (HBHTC), and venue-based (VBHTC) HIV testing and counseling (HTC) intervention in Bukoba Municipal Council, a mixed urban and rural lake zone community of 150,000 residents in Tanzania. This paper describes the methods, outcomes, and incremental costs of these HTC interventions. PITC was implemented in outpatient department clinics in all eight public and three faith-based health facilities. In clinics, lay counselors routinely screened and referred eligible patients for HIV testing conducted by HTC-dedicated healthcare workers. In all 14 wards, community teams offered HTC to eligible persons encountered at 31,293 home visits and at 79 male- and youth-frequented venues. HTC was recommended for persons who were not in HIV care or had not tested in the prior 90 days. BCPE conducted 133,695 HIV tests during the 2.5 year intervention (PITC: 88,813, 66%; HBHTC: 27,407, 21%; VBHTC: 17,475, 13%). Compared with other strategies, PITC conducted proportionally more tests among females (65%), and VBHTC conducted proportionally more tests among males (69%) and young-adults aged 15-24 years (42%). Of 5,550 (4.2% of all tests) HIV-positive tests, 4,143 (75%) clients were newly HIV diagnosed, including 1,583 males and 881 young adults aged 15-24 years. Of HIV tests conducted 3.7%, 1.8%, and 2.1% of PITC, HBHTC, and VBHTC clients, respectively, were newly HIV diagnosed; PITC accounted for 79% of all new diagnoses. Cost per test (per new diagnosis) was $4.55 ($123.66), $6.45 ($354.44), and $7.98 ($372.67) for PITC, HBHTC, and VBHTC, respectively. In a task-shifting analysis in which lay counselors replaced healthcare workers, estimated costs per test (per new diagnosis) would have been $3.06 ($83.15), $ 4.81 ($264.04), and $5.45 ($254.52), for PITC, HBHTC, and VBHTC, respectively. BCPE models reached different target groups, including men and young adults, two groups with consistently low coverage. Implementation of multiple models is likely necessary to achieve >/=90% diagnostic coverage. |
Cost of community-based hiv testing activities to reach saturation in Botswana
Lasry A , Bachanas P , Suraratdecha C , Alwano MG , Behel S , Pals S , Block L , Moore J . AIDS Behav 2019 23 (4) 875-882 In Botswana, 85% of persons living with HIV are aware of their status. We performed an economic analysis of HIV testing activities implemented during intensive campaigns, in 11 communities, between April 2015 and March 2016, through the Botswana Combination Prevention Project. The total cost was $1,098,312, or $99,847 per community, with 60% attributable to home-based testing and 40% attributable to mobile testing. The cost per person tested was $44, and $671 per person testing positive (2017 USD). Labor costs comprised 64% of total costs. In areas of high HIV prevalence and treatment coverage, the cost of untargeted home-based testing may be inflated by the efforts required to assess the testing eligibility of clients who are HIV-positive and on ART. Home-based and mobile testing delivered though an intensive community-based campaign allowed the identification of HIV positive persons, who may not access health facilities, at a cost comparable to other studies. |
Implementing the package of CDC and WHO recommended linkage services: Methods, outcomes, and costs of the Bukoba Tanzania Combination Prevention Evaluation peer-delivered, linkage case management program, 2014-2017
MacKellar D , Maruyama H , Rwabiyago OE , Steiner C , Cham H , Msumi O , Weber R , Kundi G , Suraratdecha C , Mengistu T , Byrd J , Pals S , Churi E , Madevu-Matson C , Kazaura K , Morales F , Rutachunzibwa T , Justman J , Rwebembera A . PLoS One 2018 13 (12) e0208919 Although several studies have evaluated one or more linkage services to improve early enrollment in HIV care in Tanzania, none have evaluated the package of linkage services recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO). We describe the uptake of each component of the CDC/WHO recommended package of linkage services, and early enrollment in HIV care and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation among persons with HIV who participated in a peer-delivered, linkage case management (LCM) program implemented in Bukoba, Tanzania, October 2014 -May 2017. Of 4206 participants (88% newly HIV diagnosed), most received recommended services including counseling on the importance of early enrollment in care and ART (100%); escort by foot or car to an HIV care and treatment clinic (CTC) (83%); treatment navigation at a CTC (94%); telephone support and appointment reminders (77% among clients with cellphones); and counseling on HIV-status disclosure and partner/family testing (77%), and on barriers to care (69%). During three periods with different ART-eligibility thresholds [CD4<350 (Oct 2014 -Dec 2015, n = 2233), CD4</=500 (Jan 2016 -Sept 2016, n = 1221), and Test & Start (Oct 2016 -May 2017, n = 752)], 90%, 96%, and 97% of clients enrolled in HIV care, and 47%, 67%, and 86% of clients initiated ART, respectively, within three months of diagnosis. Of 463 LCM clients who participated in the last three months of the rollout of Test & Start, 91% initiated ART. Estimated per-client cost was $44 United States dollars (USD) for delivering LCM services in communities and facilities overall, and $18 USD for a facility-only model with task shifting. Well accepted by persons with HIV, peer-delivered LCM services recommended by CDC and WHO can achieve near universal early ART initiation in the Test & Start era at modest cost and should be considered for implementation in facilities and communities experiencing <90% early enrollment in ART care. |
Cost and cost-effectiveness analysis of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in two hospitals in Thailand
Suraratdecha C , Stuart RM , Manopaiboon C , Green D , Lertpiriyasuwat C , Wilson DP , Pavaputanon P , Visavakum P , Monkongdee P , Khawcharoenporn T , Tharee P , Kittinunvorakoon C , Martin M . J Int AIDS Soc 2018 21 Suppl 5 e25129 INTRODUCTION: In 2014, the Government of Thailand recommended pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as an additional HIV prevention programme within Thailand's National Guidelines on HIV/AIDS Treatment Prevention. However, to date implementation and uptake of PrEP programmes have been limited, and evidence on the costs and the epidemiological and economic impact is not available. METHODS: We estimated the costs associated with PrEP provision among men having sex with men (MSM) participating in a facility-based, prospective observational cohort study: the Test, Treat and Prevent HIV Programme in Thailand. We created a suite of scenarios to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PrEP and sensitivity of the results to the model input parameters, including PrEP programme effectiveness, PrEP uptake among high-risk and low-risk MSM, baseline and future antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, condom use, unit cost of delivering PrEP, and the discount rate. RESULTS: Drug costs accounted for 82.5% of the total cost of providing PrEP, followed by lab testing (8.2%) and personnel costs (7.8%). The estimated costs of providing the PrEP package in accordance with the national recommendation ranges from US$223 to US$311 per person per year. Based on our modelling results, we estimate that PrEP would be cost-effective when provided to either high-risk or all MSM. However, we found that the programme would be approximately 32% more cost-effective if offered to high-risk MSM than it would be if offered to all MSM, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$4,836 per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted and US$7,089 per DALY averted respectively. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves demonstrate that 80% of scenarios would be cost-effective when PrEP is provided solely to higher-risk MSM. CONCLUSION: We provide the first estimates on cost and cost-effectiveness of PrEP in the Asia-Pacific region, and offer insights on how to deliver PrEP in combination with ART. While the high drug cost poses a budgeting challenge, incorporating PrEP delivery into an existing ART programme could be a cost-effective strategy to prevent HIV infections among MSM in Thailand. |
The economic burden of childhood pneumococcal diseases in the Gambia
Usuf E , Mackenzie G , Sambou S , Atherly D , Suraratdecha C . Cost Eff Resour Alloc 2016 14 4 BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae is a common cause of child death. However, the economic burden of pneumococcal disease in low-income countries is poorly described. We aimed to estimate from a societal perspective, the costs incurred by health providers and families of children with pneumococcal diseases. METHODS: We recruited children less than 5 years of age with outpatient pneumonia, inpatient pneumonia, pneumococcal sepsis and bacterial meningitis at facilities in rural and urban Gambia. We collected provider costs, out of pocket costs and productivity loss for the families of children. For each disease diagnostic category, costs were collected before, during, and for 1 week after discharge from hospital or outpatient visit. RESULTS: A total of 340 children were enrolled; 100 outpatient pneumonia, 175 inpatient pneumonia 36 pneumococcal sepsis, and 29 bacterial meningitis cases. The mean provider costs per patient for treating outpatient pneumonia, inpatient pneumonia, pneumococcal sepsis and meningitis were US$8, US$64, US$87 and US$124 respectively and the mean out of pocket costs per patient were US$6, US$31, US$44 and US$34 respectively. The economic burden of outpatient pneumonia, inpatient pneumonia, pneumococcal sepsis and meningitis increased to US$15, US$109, US$144 and US$170 respectively when family members' time loss from work was taken into account. CONCLUSION: The economic burden of pneumococcal disease in The Gambia is substantial, costs to families was approximately one-third to a half of the provider costs, and accounted for up to 30 % of total societal costs. The introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has the potential to significantly reduce this economic burden in this society. |
The impact of social services interventions in developing countries: a review of the evidence of impact on clinical outcomes in people living with HIV
Bateganya MH , Dong M , Oguntomilade J , Suraratdecha C . J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2015 68 Suppl 3 S357-67 BACKGROUND: Social service interventions have been implemented in many countries to help people living with HIV (PLHIV) and household members cope with economic burden as a result of reduced earning or increased spending on health care. However, the evidence for specific interventions-economic strengthening and legal services-on key health outcomes has not been appraised. METHODS: We searched electronic databases from January 1995 to May 2014 and reviewed relevant literature from resource-limited settings on the impact of social service interventions on mortality, morbidity, retention in HIV care, quality of life, and ongoing HIV transmission and their cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Of 1685 citations, 8 articles reported the health impact of economic strengthening interventions among PLHIV in resource-limited settings. None reported on legal services. Six of the 8 studies were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa: 1 reported on all 5 outcomes and 2 reported on 4 and 2 outcomes, respectively. The remaining 5 reported on 1 outcome each. Seven studies reported on quality of life. Although all studies reported some association between economic strengthening interventions and HIV care outcomes, the quality of evidence was rated fair or poor because studies were of low research rigor (observational or qualitative), had small sample size, or had other limitations. The expected impact of economic strengthening interventions was rated as high for quality of life but uncertain for all the other outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of economic strengthening interventions is expected to have a high impact on the quality of life for PLHIV but uncertain impact on mortality, morbidity, retention in care, and HIV transmission. More rigorous research is needed to explore the impact of more targeted intervention components on health outcomes. |
The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance
Lee LA , Franzel L , Atwell J , Datta SD , Friberg IK , Goldie SJ , Reef SE , Schwalbe N , Simons E , Strebel PM , Sweet S , Suraratdecha C , Tam Y , Vynnycky E , Walker N , Walker DG , Hansen PM . Vaccine 2013 31 Suppl 2 B61-72 INTRODUCTION: From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. METHODS: The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. RESULTS: By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. CONCLUSION: Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits. |
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