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One Health assessment of persistent organic chemicals and PFAS for consumption of restored anadromous fish
Melnyk LJ , Lazorchak JM , Kusnierz DH , Perlman GD , Lin J , Venkatapathy R , Sundaravadivelu D , Thorn J , Durant J , Pugh K , Stover MA . J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 2023 BACKGROUND: Restoration efforts have led to the return of anadromous fish, potential source of food for the Penobscot Indian Nation, to the previously dammed Penobscot River, Maine. OBJECTIVE: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Penobscot Indian Nation's Department of Natural Resources (PINDNR), and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), measured contaminants in six species of anadromous fish. Fish tissue concentrations were then used, along with exposure parameters, to evaluate potential human and aquatic-dependent wildlife risk. METHODS: PINDNR collected, filleted, froze, and shipped fish for analysis of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), dioxins/furans, and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Contaminant levels were compared to reference doses (where possible) and wildlife values (WVs). RESULTS: Chemical concentrations ranged from 6.37 nanogram per gram (ng/g) wet weight (ww) in American Shad roe to 100 ng/g ww in Striped Bass for total PCBs; 0.851 ng/g ww in American Shad roe to 5.92 ng/g ww in large Rainbow Smelt for total PBDEs; and 0.037 ng/g ww in American Shad roe to 0.221 ng/g ww in Striped Bass for total dioxin/furans. PFAS concentrations ranged between 0.38 ng/g ww of PFBA in Alewife to 7.86 ng/g ww of PFUnA in Sea Lamprey. Dioxin/furans and PFOS levels indicated that there are potential human health risks. The WV for mink for total PCBs (72 ng/g) was exceeded in Striped Bass and the WV for Kestrel for PBDEs (8.7 ng/g) was exceeded in large Rainbow Smelt. Mammalian wildlife consuming Blueback Herring, Striped Bass, and Sea Lamprey may be at risk based on PFOS WVs from Canada. IMPACT: Anadromous fish returning to the Penobscot River potentially could represent the restoration of a major component of tribal traditional diet. However, information about contaminant levels in these fish is needed to guide the tribe about consumption safety. Analysis of select species of fish and risk calculations demonstrated the need for a protective approach to consumption for both humans and wildlife. This project demonstrates that wildlife can also be impacted by contamination of fish and their risks can be as great or greater than those of humans. A One Health approach addresses this discrepancy and will lead to a healthier ecosystem. |
Self-Reported Mask Use among Persons with or without SARS CoV-2 Vaccination -United States, December 2020-August 2021 (preprint)
Calamari LE , Weintraub WS , Santos R , Gibbs M , Bertoni AG , Ward LM , Saydah S , Plumb ID , Runyon MS , Wierzba TF , Sanders JW , Herrington D , Espeland MA , Williamson J , Mongraw-Chaffin M , Bertoni A , Alexander-Miller MA , Castri P , Mathews A , Munawar I , Seals AL , Ostasiewski B , Ballard CAP , Gurcan M , Ivanov A , Zapata GM , Westcott M , Blinson K , Blinson L , Mistysyn M , Davis D , Doomy L , Henderson P , Jessup A , Lane K , Levine B , McCanless J , McDaniel S , Melius K , O'Neill C , Pack A , Rathee R , Rushing S , Sheets J , Soots S , Wall M , Wheeler S , White J , Wilkerson L , Wilson R , Wilson K , Burcombe D , Saylor G , Lunn M , Ordonez K , O'Steen A , Wagner L , McCurdy LH , Gibbs MA , Taylor YJ , Calamari L , Tapp H , Ahmed A , Brennan M , Munn L , Dantuluri KL , Hetherington T , Lu LC , Dunn C , Hogg M , Price A , Leonidas M , Manning M , Rossman W , Gohs FX , Harris A , Priem JS , Tochiki P , Wellinsky N , Silva C , Ludden T , Hernandez J , Spencer K , McAlister L , Weintraub W , Miller K , Washington C , Moses A , Dolman S , Zelaya-Portillo J , Erkus J , Blumenthal J , Romero Barrientos RE , Bennett S , Shah S , Mathur S , Boxley C , Kolm P , Franklin E , Ahmed N , Larsen M , Oberhelman R , Keating J , Kissinger P , Schieffelin J , Yukich J , Beron A , Teigen J , Kotloff K , Chen WH , Friedman-Klabanoff D , Berry AA , Powell H , Roane L , Datar R , Correa A , Navalkele B , Min YI , Castillo A , Ward L , Santos RP , Anugu P , Gao Y , Green J , Sandlin R , Moore D , Drake L , Horton D , Johnson KL , Stover M , Lagarde WH , Daniel L , Maguire PD , Hanlon CL , McFayden L , Rigo I , Hines K , Smith L , Harris M , Lissor B , Cook V , Eversole M , Herrin T , Murphy D , Kinney L , Diehl P , Abromitis N , Pierre TSt , Heckman B , Evans D , March J , Whitlock B , Moore W , Arthur S , Conway J , Gallaher TR , Johanson M , Brown S , Dixon T , Reavis M , Henderson S , Zimmer M , Oliver D , Jackson K , Menon M , Bishop B , Roeth R , King-Thiele R , Hamrick TS , Ihmeidan A , Hinkelman A , Okafor C , Bray Brown RB , Brewster A , Bouyi D , Lamont K , Yoshinaga K , Vinod P , Peela AS , Denbel G , Lo J , Mayet-Khan M , Mittal A , Motwani R , Raafat M , Schultz E , Joseph A , Parkeh A , Patel D , Afridi B , Uschner D , Edelstein SL , Santacatterina M , Strylewicz G , Burke B , Gunaratne M , Turney M , Zhou SQ , Tjaden AH , Fette L , Buahin A , Bott M , Graziani S , Soni A , Mores C , Porzucek A , Laborde R , Acharya P , Guill L , Lamphier D , Schaefer A , Satterwhite WM , McKeague A , Ward J , Naranjo DP , Darko N , Castellon K , Brink R , Shehzad H , Kuprianov D , McGlasson D , Hayes D , Edwards S , Daphnis S , Todd B , Goodwin A , Berkelman R , Hanson K , Zeger S , Hopkins J , Reilly C , Edwards K , Gayle H , Redd S . medRxiv 2022 10 Wearing a facemask can help to decrease the transmission of COVID-19. We investigated self-reported mask use among subjects aged 18 years and older participating in the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership (CRP), a prospective longitudinal COVID-19 surveillance study in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States. We included those participants who completed >=5 daily surveys each month from December 1, 2020 through August 31, 2021. Mask use was defined as self-reported use of a face mask or face covering on every interaction with others outside the household within a distance of less than 6 feet. Participants were considered vaccinated if they reported receiving >=1 COVID-19 vaccine dose. Participants (n=17,522) were 91% non-Hispanic White, 68% female, median age 57 years, 26% healthcare workers, with 95% self-reported receiving >=1 COVID-19 vaccine dose through August; mean daily survey response was 85%. Mask use was higher among vaccinated than unvaccinated participants across the study period, regardless of the month of the first dose. Mask use remained relatively stable from December 2020 through April (range 71-80% unvaccinated; 86-93% vaccinated) and declined in both groups beginning in mid-May 2021 to 34% and 42% respectively in June 2021; mask use has increased again since July 2021. Mask use by all was lower during weekends and on Christmas and Easter, regardless of vaccination status. Independent predictors of higher mask use were vaccination, age >=65 years, female sex, racial or ethnic minority group, and healthcare worker occupation, whereas a history of self-reported prior COVID-19 illness was associated with lower use. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license. |
Cost-effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention across sub-Saharan Africa: results from five independent models
Bansi-Matharu L , Mudimu E , Martin-Hughes R , Hamilton M , Johnson L , TenBrink D , Stover J , Meyer-Rath G , Kelly SL , Jamieson L , Cambiano V , Jahn A , Cowan FM , Mangenah C , Mavhu W , Chidarikire T , Toledo C , Revill P , Sundaram M , Hatzold K , Yansaneh A , Apollo T , Kalua T , Mugurungi O , Kiggundu V , Zhang S , Nyirenda R , Phillips A , Kripke K , Bershteyn A . Lancet Glob Health 2022 BACKGROUND: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been a recommended HIV prevention strategy in sub-Saharan Africa since 2007, particularly in countries with high HIV prevalence. However, given the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy programmes, it is not clear whether VMMC still represents a cost-effective use of scarce HIV programme resources. METHODS: Using five existing well described HIV mathematical models, we compared continuation of VMMC for 5 years in men aged 15 years and older to no further VMMC in South Africa, Malawi, and Zimbabwe and across a range of setting scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa. Outputs were based on a 50-year time horizon, VMMC cost was assumed to be US$90, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 was used. FINDINGS: In South Africa and Malawi, the continuation of VMMC for 5 years resulted in cost savings and health benefits (infections and disability-adjusted life-years averted) according to all models. Of the two models modelling Zimbabwe, the continuation of VMMC for 5 years resulted in cost savings and health benefits by one model but was not as cost-effective according to the other model. Continuation of VMMC was cost-effective in 68% of setting scenarios across sub-Saharan Africa. VMMC was more likely to be cost-effective in modelled settings with higher HIV incidence; VMMC was cost-effective in 62% of settings with HIV incidence of less than 01 per 100 person-years in men aged 15-49 years, increasing to 95% with HIV incidence greater than 10 per 100 person-years. INTERPRETATION: VMMC remains a cost-effective, often cost-saving, prevention intervention in sub-Saharan Africa for at least the next 5 years. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for the HIV Modelling Consortium. |
Provision of folic acid for reducing arsenic toxicity in arsenic-exposed children and adults
Bae S , Kamynina E , Guetterman HM , Farinola AF , Caudill MA , Berry RJ , Cassano PA , Stover PJ . Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2021 10 (10) Cd012649 BACKGROUND: Arsenic is a common environmental toxin. Exposure to arsenic (particularly its inorganic form) through contaminated food and drinking water is an important public health burden worldwide, and is associated with increased risk of neurotoxicity, congenital anomalies, cancer, and adverse neurodevelopment in children. Arsenic is excreted following methylation reactions, which are mediated by folate. Provision of folate through folic acid supplements could facilitate arsenic methylation and excretion, thereby reducing arsenic toxicity. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of provision of folic acid (through fortified foods or supplements), alone or in combination with other nutrients, in lessening the burden of arsenic-related health outcomes and reducing arsenic toxicity in arsenic-exposed populations. SEARCH METHODS: In September 2020, we searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, 10 other international databases, nine regional databases, and two trials registers. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs comparing the provision of folic acid (at any dose or duration), alone or in combination with other nutrients or nutrient supplements, with no intervention, placebo, unfortified food, or the same nutrient or supplements without folic acid, in arsenic-exposed populations of all ages and genders. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. MAIN RESULTS: We included two RCTs with 822 adults exposed to arsenic-contaminated drinking water in Bangladesh. The RCTs compared 400 µg/d (FA400) or 800 µg/d (FA800) folic acid supplements, given for 12 or 24 weeks, with placebo. One RCT, a multi-armed trial, compared FA400 plus creatine (3 g/d) to creatine alone. We judged both RCTs at low risk of bias in all domains. Due to differences in co-intervention, arsenic exposure, and participants' nutritional status, we could not conduct meta-analyses, and therefore, provide a narrative description of the data. Neither RCT reported on cancer, all-cause mortality, neurocognitive function, or congenital anomalies. Folic acid supplements alone versus placebo Blood arsenic. In arsenic-exposed individuals, FA likely reduces blood arsenic concentrations compared to placebo (2 studies, 536 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). For folate-deficient and folate-replete participants who received arsenic-removal water filters as a co-intervention, FA800 reduced blood arsenic levels more than placebo (percentage change (%change) in geometric mean (GM) FA800 -17.8%, 95% confidence intervals (CI) -25.0 to -9.8; placebo GM -9.5%, 95% CI -16.5 to -1.8; 1 study, 406 participants). In one study with 130 participants with low baseline plasma folate, FA400 reduced total blood arsenic (%change FA400 mean (M) -13.62%, standard error (SE) ± 2.87; placebo M -2.49%, SE ± 3.25), and monomethylarsonic acid (MMA) concentrations (%change FA400 M -22.24%, SE ± 2.86; placebo M -1.24%, SE ± 3.59) more than placebo. Inorganic arsenic (InAs) concentrations reduced in both groups (%change FA400 M -18.54%, SE ± 3.60; placebo M -10.61%, SE ± 3.38). There was little to no change in dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) in either group. Urinary arsenic. In arsenic-exposed individuals, FA likely reduces the proportion of total urinary arsenic excreted as InAs (%InAs) and MMA (%MMA) and increases the proportion excreted as DMA (%DMA) to a greater extent than placebo (2 studies, 546 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), suggesting that FA enhances arsenic methylation. In a mixed folate-deficient and folate-replete population (1 study, 352 participants) receiving arsenic-removal water filters as a co-intervention, groups receiving FA had a greater decrease in %InAs (within-person change FA400 M -0.09%, 95% CI -0.17 to -0.01; FA800 M -0.14%, 95% CI -0.21 to -0.06; placebo M 0.05%, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.10), a greater decrease in %MMA (within-person change FA400 M -1.80%, 95% CI -2.53 to -1.07; FA800 M -2.60%, 95% CI -3.35 to -1.85; placebo M 0.15%, 95% CI -0.37 to 0.68), and a greater increase in %DMA (within-person change FA400 M 3.25%, 95% CI 1.81 to 4.68; FA800 M 4.57%, 95% CI 3.20 to 5.95; placebo M -1.17%, 95% CI -2.18 to -0.17), compared to placebo. In 194 participants with low baseline plasma folate, FA reduced %InAs (%change FA400 M -0.31%, SE ± 0.04; placebo M -0.13%, SE ± 0.04) and %MMA (%change FA400 M -2.6%, SE ± 0.37; placebo M -0.71%, SE ± 0.43), and increased %DMA (%change FA400 M 5.9%, SE ± 0.82; placebo M 2.14%, SE ± 0.71), more than placebo. Plasma homocysteine: In arsenic-exposed individuals, FA400 likely reduces homocysteine concentrations to a greater extent than placebo (2 studies, 448 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), in the mixed folate-deficient and folate-replete population receiving arsenic-removal water filters as a co-intervention (%change in GM FA400 -23.4%, 95% CI -27.1 to -19.5; placebo -1.3%, 95% CI -5.3 to 3.1; 1 study, 254 participants), and participants with low baseline plasma folate (within-person change FA400 M -3.06 µmol/L, SE ± 3.51; placebo M -0.05 µmol/L, SE ± 4.31; 1 study, 194 participants). FA supplements plus other nutrient supplements versus nutrient supplements alone In arsenic-exposed individuals who received arsenic-removal water filters as a co-intervention, FA400 plus creatine may reduce blood arsenic concentrations more than creatine alone (%change in GM FA400 + creatine -14%, 95% CI -22.2 to -5.0; creatine -7.0%, 95% CI -14.8 to 1.5; 1 study, 204 participants; low-certainty evidence); may not change urinary arsenic methylation indices (FA400 + creatine: %InAs M 13.2%, SE ± 7.0; %MMA M 10.8, SE ± 4.1; %DMA M 76, SE ± 7.8; creatine: %InAs M 14.8, SE ± 5.5; %MMA M 12.8, SE ± 4.0; %DMA M 72.4, SE ±7.6; 1 study, 190 participants; low-certainty evidence); and may reduce homocysteine concentrations to a greater extent (%change in GM FA400 + creatinine -21%, 95% CI -25.2 to -16.4; creatine -4.3%, 95% CI -9.0 to 0.7; 1 study, 204 participants; low-certainty evidence) than creatine alone. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate-certainty evidence that FA supplements may benefit blood arsenic concentration, urinary arsenic methylation profiles, and plasma homocysteine concentration versus placebo. There is low-certainty evidence that FA supplements plus other nutrients may benefit blood arsenic and plasma homocysteine concentrations versus nutrients alone. No studies reported on cancer, all-cause mortality, neurocognitive function, or congenital anomalies. Given the limited number of RCTs, more studies conducted in diverse settings are needed to assess the effects of FA on arsenic-related health outcomes and arsenic toxicity in arsenic-exposed adults and children. |
Disease progression and mortality with untreated HIV infection: evidence synthesis of HIV seroconverter cohorts, antiretroviral treatment clinical cohorts and population-based survey data
Glaubius R , Kothegal N , Birhanu S , Jonnalagadda S , Mahiane SG , Johnson LF , Brown T , Stover J , Mangal TD , Pantazis N , Eaton JW . J Int AIDS Soc 2021 24 Suppl 5 e25784 INTRODUCTION: Model-based estimates of key HIV indicators depend on past epidemic trends that are derived based on assumptions about HIV disease progression and mortality in the absence of antiretroviral treatment (ART). Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) household surveys conducted between 2015 and 2018 found substantial numbers of respondents living with untreated HIV infection. CD4 cell counts measured in these individuals provide novel information to estimate HIV disease progression and mortality rates off ART. METHODS: We used Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis to combine data on (1) cross-sectional CD4 cell counts among untreated adults living with HIV from 10 PHIA surveys, (2) survival after HIV seroconversion in East African seroconverter cohorts, (3) post-seroconversion CD4 counts and (4) mortality rates by CD4 count predominantly from European, North American and Australian seroconverter cohorts. We used incremental mixture importance sampling to estimate HIV natural history and ART uptake parameters used in the Spectrum software. We validated modelled trends in CD4 count at ART initiation against ART initiator cohorts in sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Median untreated HIV survival decreased with increasing age at seroconversion, from 12.5 years [95% credible interval (CrI): 12.1-12.7] at ages 15-24 to 7.2 years (95% CrI: 7.1-7.7) at ages 45-54. Older age was associated with lower initial CD4 counts, faster CD4 count decline and higher HIV-related mortality rates. Our estimates suggested a weaker association between ART uptake and HIV-related mortality rates than previously assumed in Spectrum. Modelled CD4 counts in untreated people living with HIV matched recent household survey data well, though some intercountry variation in frequencies of CD4 counts above 500 cells/mm(3) was not explained. Trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation were comparable to data from ART initiator cohorts. An alternate model that stratified progression and mortality rates by sex did not improve model fit appreciably. CONCLUSIONS: Synthesis of multiple data sources results in similar overall survival as previous Spectrum parameter assumptions but implies more rapid progression and longer survival in lower CD4 categories. New natural history parameter values improve consistency of model estimates with recent cross-sectional CD4 data and trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation. |
Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub-Saharan Africa.
Eaton JW , Dwyer-Lindgren L , Gutreuter S , O'Driscoll M , Stevens O , Bajaj S , Ashton R , Hill A , Russell E , Esra R , Dolan N , Anifowoshe YO , Woodbridge M , Fellows I , Glaubius R , Haeuser E , Okonek T , Stover J , Thomas ML , Wakefield J , Wolock TM , Berry J , Sabala T , Heard N , Delgado S , Jahn A , Kalua T , Chimpandule T , Auld A , Kim E , Payne D , Johnson LF , FitzJohn RG , Wanyeki I , Mahy MI , Shiraishi RW . J Int AIDS Soc 2021 24 Suppl 5 e25788 INTRODUCTION: HIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small-area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five-year age groups. METHODS: Small-area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART. Incidence was modelled by district-level HIV prevalence and ART coverage. Model outputs of counts and rates for each indicator were aggregated to multiple geographic and demographic stratifications of interest. The model was estimated in an empirical Bayes framework, furnishing probabilistic uncertainty ranges for all output indicators. Example results were presented using data from Malawi during 2016-2018. RESULTS: Adult HIV prevalence in September 2018 ranged from 3.2% to 17.1% across Malawi's districts and was higher in southern districts and in metropolitan areas. ART coverage was more homogenous, ranging from 75% to 82%. The largest number of PLHIV was among ages 35 to 39 for both women and men, while the most untreated PLHIV were among ages 25 to 29 for women and 30 to 34 for men. Relative uncertainty was larger for the untreated PLHIV than the number on ART or total PLHIV. Among clients receiving ART at facilities in Lilongwe city, an estimated 71% (95% CI, 61% to 79%) resided in Lilongwe city, 20% (14% to 27%) in Lilongwe district outside the metropolis, and 9% (6% to 12%) in neighbouring Dowa district. Thirty-eight percent (26% to 50%) of Lilongwe rural residents and 39% (27% to 50%) of Dowa residents received treatment at facilities in Lilongwe city. CONCLUSIONS: The Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data. |
Risks from mercury in anadromous fish collected from Penobscot River, Maine
Melnyk LJ , Lin J , Kusnierz DH , Pugh K , Durant JT , Suarez-Soto RJ , Venkatapathy R , Sundaravadivelu D , Morris A , Lazorchak JM , Perlman G , Stover MA . Sci Total Environ 2021 781 146691 Levels of total mercury were measured in tissue of six species of migratory fish (alewife, American shad, blueback herring, rainbow smelt, striped bass, and sea lamprey), and in roe of American shad for two consecutive years collected from the Penobscot River or its estuary. The resultant mercury levels were compared to reference doses as established in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System and wildlife values. Mercury concentrations ranged from 4 μg/kg ww in roe to 1040 μg/kg ww in sea lamprey. Sea lamprey contained the highest amounts of mercury for both seasons of sampling. Current health advisories are set at sufficient levels to protect fishers from harmful consumption of the fish for mercury alone, except for sea lamprey. Based upon published wildlife values for mink, otter, and eagle, consumption of rainbow smelt, striped bass, or sea lamprey poses a risk to mink; striped bass and sea lamprey to otter; and sea lamprey to eagle. For future consideration, the resultant data may serve as a reference point for both human health and wildlife risk assessments for the consumption of anadromous fish. U.S. EPA works with federally recognized Tribes across the nation greatly impacted by restrictions on sustenance fishing, to develop culturally sensitive risk assessments. |
Coronavirus Disease among Workers in Food Processing, Food Manufacturing, and Agriculture Workplaces.
Waltenburg MA , Rose CE , Victoroff T , Butterfield M , Dillaha JA , Heinzerling A , Chuey M , Fierro M , Jervis RH , Fedak KM , Leapley A , Gabel JA , Feldpausch A , Dunne EM , Austin C , Pedati CS , Ahmed FS , Tubach S , Rhea C , Tonzel J , Krueger A , Crum DA , Vostok J , Moore MJ , Kempher H , Scheftel J , Turabelidze G , Stover D , Donahue M , Thomas D , Edge K , Gutierrez B , Berl E , McLafferty M , Kline KE , Martz N , Rajotte JC , Julian E , Diedhiou A , Radcliffe R , Clayton JL , Ortbahn D , Cummins J , Barbeau B , Carpenter S , Pringle JC , Murphy J , Darby B , Graff NR , Dostal TKH , Pray IW , Tillman C , Rose DA , Honein MA . Emerg Infect Dis 2020 27 (1) 243-9 We describe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among US food manufacturing and agriculture workers and provide updated information on meat and poultry processing workers. Among 742 food and agriculture workplaces in 30 states, 8,978 workers had confirmed COVID-19; 55 workers died. Racial and ethnic minority workers could be disproportionately affected by COVID-19. |
Knowledge gaps in understanding the metabolic and clinical effects of excess folates/folic acid: a summary, and perspectives, from an NIH workshop
Maruvada P , Stover PJ , Mason JB , Bailey RL , Davis CD , Field MS , Finnell RH , Garza C , Green R , Gueant JL , Jacques PF , Klurfeld DM , Lamers Y , MacFarlane AJ , Miller JW , Molloy AM , O'Connor DL , Pfeiffer CM , Potischman NA , Rodricks JV , Rosenberg IH , Ross SA , Shane B , Selhub J , Stabler SP , Trasler J , Yamini S , Zappalà G . Am J Clin Nutr 2020 112 (5) 1390-1403 Folate, an essential nutrient found naturally in foods in a reduced form, is present in dietary supplements and fortified foods in an oxidized synthetic form (folic acid). There is widespread agreement that maintaining adequate folate status is critical to prevent diseases due to folate inadequacy (e.g., anemia, birth defects, and cancer). However, there are concerns of potential adverse effects of excess folic acid intake and/or elevated folate status, with the original concern focused on exacerbation of clinical effects of vitamin B-12 deficiency and its role in neurocognitive health. More recently, animal and observational studies have suggested potential adverse effects on cancer risk, birth outcomes, and other diseases. Observations indicating adverse effects from excess folic acid intake, elevated folate status, and unmetabolized folic acid (UMFA) remain inconclusive; the data do not provide the evidence needed to affect public health recommendations. Moreover, strong biological and mechanistic premises connecting elevated folic acid intake, UMFA, and/or high folate status to adverse health outcomes are lacking. However, the body of evidence on potential adverse health outcomes indicates the need for comprehensive research to clarify these issues and bridge knowledge gaps. Three key research questions encompass the additional research needed to establish whether high folic acid or total folate intake contributes to disease risk. 1) Does UMFA affect biological pathways leading to adverse health effects? 2) Does elevated folate status resulting from any form of folate intake affect vitamin B-12 function and its roles in sustaining health? 3) Does elevated folate intake, regardless of form, affect biological pathways leading to adverse health effects other than those linked to vitamin B-12 function? This article summarizes the proceedings of an August 2019 NIH expert workshop focused on addressing these research areas. |
Notes from the Field: Characteristics of Meat Processing Facility Workers with Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Infection - Nebraska, April-May 2020.
Donahue M , Sreenivasan N , Stover D , Rajasingham A , Watson J , Bealle A , Ritchison N , Safranek T , Waltenburg MA , Buss B , Reefhuis J . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020 69 (31) 1020-1022 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been reported nationwide among meat processing facility workers (1). In late April 2020, through flyers and text messages, workers at a Nebraska meat processing facility were invited by the facility, in partnership with the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services, to be tested for current SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, at their worksite, free of charge. Specimens were analyzed using reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) by a contracting laboratory. This investigation was determined by CDC to be public health surveillance.* Among 1,216 Nebraska-resident meat processing facility workers tested, 375 (31%) had positive results. During May 8–25, case investigators attempted to interview the 349 workers who had positive test results and available phone numbers; five refused, 99 were not reached after five attempts, and four did not report symptom status, leaving 241 (69%) of the attempted interviews for analysis. |
Update: COVID-19 Among Workers in Meat and Poultry Processing Facilities - United States, April-May 2020.
Waltenburg MA , Victoroff T , Rose CE , Butterfield M , Jervis RH , Fedak KM , Gabel JA , Feldpausch A , Dunne EM , Austin C , Ahmed FS , Tubach S , Rhea C , Krueger A , Crum DA , Vostok J , Moore MJ , Turabelidze G , Stover D , Donahue M , Edge K , Gutierrez B , Kline KE , Martz N , Rajotte JC , Julian E , Diedhiou A , Radcliffe R , Clayton JL , Ortbahn D , Cummins J , Barbeau B , Murphy J , Darby B , Graff NR , Dostal TKH , Pray IW , Tillman C , Dittrich MM , Burns-Grant G , Lee S , Spieckerman A , Iqbal K , Griffing SM , Lawson A , Mainzer HM , Bealle AE , Edding E , Arnold KE , Rodriguez T , Merkle S , Pettrone K , Schlanger K , LaBar K , Hendricks K , Lasry A , Krishnasamy V , Walke HT , Rose DA , Honein MA . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020 69 (27) 887-892 Meat and poultry processing facilities face distinctive challenges in the control of infectious diseases, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (1). COVID-19 outbreaks among meat and poultry processing facility workers can rapidly affect large numbers of persons. Assessment of COVID-19 cases among workers in 115 meat and poultry processing facilities through April 27, 2020, documented 4,913 cases and 20 deaths reported by 19 states (1). This report provides updated aggregate data from states regarding the number of meat and poultry processing facilities affected by COVID-19, the number and demographic characteristics of affected workers, and the number of COVID-19-associated deaths among workers, as well as descriptions of interventions and prevention efforts at these facilities. Aggregate data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths among workers identified and reported through May 31, 2020, were obtained from 239 affected facilities (those with a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case in one or more workers) in 23 states.* COVID-19 was confirmed in 16,233 workers, including 86 COVID-19-related deaths. Among 14 states reporting the total number of workers in affected meat and poultry processing facilities (112,616), COVID-19 was diagnosed in 9.1% of workers. Among 9,919 (61%) cases in 21 states with reported race/ethnicity, 87% occurred among racial and ethnic minority workers. Commonly reported interventions and prevention efforts at facilities included implementing worker temperature or symptom screening and COVID-19 education, mandating face coverings, adding hand hygiene stations, and adding physical barriers between workers. Targeted workplace interventions and prevention efforts that are appropriately tailored to the groups most affected by COVID-19 are critical to reducing both COVID-19-associated occupational risk and health disparities among vulnerable populations. Implementation of these interventions and prevention efforts(dagger) across meat and poultry processing facilities nationally could help protect workers in this critical infrastructure industry. |
COVID-19 Among Workers in Meat and Poultry Processing Facilities - 19 States, April 2020.
Dyal JW , Grant MP , Broadwater K , Bjork A , Waltenburg MA , Gibbins JD , Hale C , Silver M , Fischer M , Steinberg J , Basler CA , Jacobs JR , Kennedy ED , Tomasi S , Trout D , Hornsby-Myers J , Oussayef NL , Delaney LJ , Patel K , Shetty V , Kline KE , Schroeder B , Herlihy RK , House J , Jervis R , Clayton JL , Ortbahn D , Austin C , Berl E , Moore Z , Buss BF , Stover D , Westergaard R , Pray I , DeBolt M , Person A , Gabel J , Kittle TS , Hendren P , Rhea C , Holsinger C , Dunn J , Turabelidze G , Ahmed FS , deFijter S , Pedati CS , Rattay K , Smith EE , Luna-Pinto C , Cooley LA , Saydah S , Preacely ND , Maddox RA , Lundeen E , Goodwin B , Karpathy SE , Griffing S , Jenkins MM , Lowry G , Schwarz RD , Yoder J , Peacock G , Walke HT , Rose DA , Honein MA . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020 69 (18) Congregate work and residential locations are at increased risk for infectious disease transmission including respiratory illness outbreaks. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is primarily spread person to person through respiratory droplets. Nationwide, the meat and poultry processing industry, an essential component of the U.S. food infrastructure, employs approximately 500,000 persons, many of whom work in proximity to other workers (1). Because of reports of initial cases of COVID-19, in some meat processing facilities, states were asked to provide aggregated data concerning the number of meat and poultry processing facilities affected by COVID-19 and the number of workers with COVID-19 in these facilities, including COVID-19-related deaths. Qualitative data gathered by CDC during on-site and remote assessments were analyzed and summarized. During April 9-27, aggregate data on COVID-19 cases among 115 meat or poultry processing facilities in 19 states were reported to CDC. Among these facilities, COVID-19 was diagnosed in 4,913 (approximately 3%) workers, and 20 COVID-19-related deaths were reported. Facility barriers to effective prevention and control of COVID-19 included difficulty distancing workers at least 6 feet (2 meters) from one another (2) and in implementing COVID-19-specific disinfection guidelines.* Among workers, socioeconomic challenges might contribute to working while feeling ill, particularly if there are management practices such as bonuses that incentivize attendance. Methods to decrease transmission within the facility include worker symptom screening programs, policies to discourage working while experiencing symptoms compatible with COVID-19, and social distancing by workers. Source control measures (e.g., the use of cloth face covers) as well as increased disinfection of high-touch surfaces are also important means of preventing SARS-CoV-2 exposure. Mitigation efforts to reduce transmission in the community should also be considered. Many of these measures might also reduce asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission (3). Implementation of these public health strategies will help protect workers from COVID-19 in this industry and assist in preserving the critical meat and poultry production infrastructure (4). |
Forecasting the global demand for HIV monitoring and diagnostic tests: A 2016-2021 analysis
Habiyambere V , Dongmo Nguimfack B , Vojnov L , Ford N , Stover J , Hasek L , Maggiore P , Low-Beer D , Perez Gonzalez M , Edgil D , Williams J , Kuritsky J , Hargreaves S , NeSmith T . PLoS One 2018 13 (9) e0201341 INTRODUCTION: Despite considerable progress, just over half of the 37 million people eligible to start antiretroviral therapy (ART) have accessed treatment and millions of HIV-positive people still do not know their status. With demand for ART continuing to grow, meeting the ambitious 90-90-90 HIV treatment targets will depend on improved access to high-quality diagnostics to both diagnose infection and monitor treatment adherence in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Robust projections of future demand for CD4, viral load (VL), HIV early-infant-diagnosis (EID) tests and HIV rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are needed as scale-up continues. METHODS: We estimate the current coverage for HIV diagnostics and project future demand to 2021 using a consolidated forecast using data on past coverage and current demand from a number of sources, from 130 predominantly LMIC countries. RESULTS: We forecast that the overall number of CD4 tests is expected to decline between now and 2021 as more countries adopt test-and-treat and shift to VL testing for patient monitoring. Our consolidated forecast projects a gradual decline in demand for CD4 tests to 16.6 million by 2021. We anticipate that demand for VL tests will increase to 28.5 million by 2021, reflecting the increasing number of people who will receive ART and the adoption of VL testing for patient monitoring. We expect that the demand for EID tests will grow more rapidly than in past years, driven by the implementation of testing at birth in programmes globally, in line with WHO guideline recommendations, doubling to 2.1 million tests by 2021. Demand for rapid diagnostic tests is also likely to increase, reaching 509 million tests by 2021. DISCUSSION: In order to achieve the ambitious 90-90-90 targets, it will be essential to maintain and improve access to CD4, VL, EID tests and RDTs. These projections provide insight into the global demand we can expect to see for these HIV monitoring and diagnostic tests, both in relation to historical trends, and the 90-90-90 targets. Our projections will better enable producers to ensure adequate supply, and to support procurement organisations in planning future funding and purchase plans to meet the anticipated demand. The findings highlight the ongoing need for governments and international funding bodies to prioritise improving capacity and access to HIV diagnostic and monitoring technologies in line with demand. |
Conducting a large public health data collection project in Uganda: Methods, tools, and lessons learned
Stover B , Lubega F , Namubiru A , Bakengesa E , Luboga SA , Makumbi F , Kiwanuka N , Ndizihiwe A , Mukooyo E , Hurley E , Lim T , Borse NN , Bernhardt J , Wood A , Sheppard L , Barnhart S , Hagopian A . J Res Pract 2018 14 (1) We report on the implementation experience of carrying out data collection and other activities for a public health evaluation study on whether U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) investment improved utilization of health services and health system strengthening in Uganda. The retrospective study period focused on the PEPFAR scale-up, from mid-2005 through mid-2011, a period of expansion of PEPFAR programing and health services. We visited 315 health care facilities in Uganda in 2011 and 2012 to collect routine health management information system data forms, as well as to conduct interviews with health system leaders. An earlier phase of this research project collected data from all 112 health district headquarters, reported elsewhere. This article describes the lessons learned from collecting data from health care facilities, project management, useful technologies, and mistakes. We used several new technologies to facilitate data collection, including portable document scanners, smartphones, and web-based data collection, along with older but reliable technologies such as car batteries for power, folding tables to create space, and letters of introduction from appropriate authorities to create entrée. Research in limited-resource settings requires an approach that values the skills and talents of local people, institutions and government agencies, and a tolerance for the unexpected. The development of personal relationships was key to the success of the project. We observed that capacity building activities were repaid many fold, especially in data management and technology. |
Acute illnesses and injuries related to total release foggers - 10 States, 2007-2015
Liu R , Alarcon WA , Calvert GM , Aubin KG , Beckman J , Cummings KR , Graham LS , Higgins SA , Mulay P , Patel K , Prado JB , Schwartz A , Stover D , Waltz J . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2018 67 (4) 125-130 Total release foggers (TRFs) (also known as "bug bombs") are pesticide products often used indoors to kill insects. After an earlier report found that TRFs pose a risk for acute illness (1), the Environmental Protection Agency required improved labels on TRFs manufactured after September 2012 (2). To examine the early impact of relabeling, the magnitude and characteristics of acute TRF-related illness were evaluated for the period 2007-2015. A total of 3,222 TRF-related illnesses were identified in 10 participating states, based on three data sources: Sentinel Event Notification System for Occupational Risk-Pesticides (SENSOR) programs, the California Department of Pesticide Regulation (CDPR) program, and poison control centers (PCCs) in Florida, Texas, and Washington. No statistically significant decline in the overall TRF-illness incidence rate was found. Failure to vacate treated premises during application was the most commonly reported cause of exposure. To reduce TRF-related illness, integrated pest management strategies (3) need to be adopted, as well as better communication about the hazards and proper uses of TRFs. Redesigning TRFs to prevent sudden, unexpected activation might also be useful. |
District Health Officer Perceptions of PEPFAR's Influence on the Health System in Uganda, 2005-2011
Lohman N , Hagopian A , Luboga SA , Stover B , Lim T , Makumbi F , Kiwanuka N , Lubega F , Ndizihiwe A , Mukooyo E , Barnhart S , Pfeiffer J . Int J Health Policy Manag 2017 6 (2) 83-95 BACKGROUND: Vertically oriented global health initiatives (GHIs) addressing the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), have successfully contributed to reducing HIV/AIDS related morbidity and mortality. However, there is still debate about whether these disease-specific programs have improved or harmed health systems overall, especially with respect to non-HIV health needs. METHODS: As part of a larger evaluation of PEPFAR's effects on the health system between 2005-2011, we collected qualitative and quantitative data through semi-structured interviews with District Health Officers (DHOs) from all 112 districts in Uganda. We asked DHOs to share their perceptions about the ways in which HIV programs (largely PEPFAR in the Ugandan context) had helped and harmed the health system. We then identified key themes among their responses using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: Ugandan DHOs said PEPFAR had generally helped the health system by improving training, integrating HIV and non-HIV care, and directly providing resources. To a lesser extent, DHOs said PEPFAR caused the health system to focus too narrowly on HIV/AIDS, increased workload for already overburdened staff, and encouraged doctors to leave public sector jobs for higher-paid positions with HIV/AIDS programs. CONCLUSION: Health system leaders in Uganda at the district level were appreciative of resources aimed at HIV they could often apply for broader purposes. As HIV infection becomes a chronic disease requiring strong health systems to manage sustained patient care over time, Uganda's weak health systems will require broad infrastructure improvements inconsistent with narrow vertical health programming. |
Sustained progress, but no room for complacency: Results of 2015 HIV estimations in India
Pandey A , Dhingra N , Kumar P , Sahu D , Reddy DCS , Narayan P , Raj Y , Sangal B , Chandra N , Nair S , Singh J , Chavan L , Srivastava DJ , Jha UM , Verma V , Kant S , Bhattacharya M , Swain P , Haldar P , Singh L , Bakkali T , Stover J , Ammassari S . Indian J Med Res 2017 146 (1) 83-96 BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Evidence-based planning has been the cornerstone of India's response to HIV/AIDS. Here we describe the process, method and tools used for generating the 2015 HIV estimates and provide a summary of the main results. METHODS: Spectrum software supported by the UNAIDS was used to produce HIV estimates for India as a whole and its States/Union Territories. This tool takes into consideration the size and HIV prevalence of defined population groups and programme data to estimate HIV prevalence, incidence and mortality over time as well as treatment needs. RESULTS: India's national adult prevalence of HIV was 0.26 per cent in 2015. Of the 2.1 million people living with HIV/AIDS, the largest numbers were in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. New HIV infections were an estimated 86,000 in 2015, reflecting a decline by around 32 per cent from 2007. The declining trend in incidence was mirrored in most States, though an increasing trend was detected in Assam, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Sikkim, Tripura and Uttar Pradesh. AIDS-related deaths were estimated to be 67,600 in 2015, reflecting a 54 per cent decline from 2007. There were variations in the rate and trend of decline across India for this indicator also. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS: While key indicators measured through Spectrum modelling confirm success of the National AIDS Control Programme, there is no room for complacency as rising incidence trends in some geographical areas and population pockets remain the cause of concern. Progress achieved so far in responding to HIV/AIDS needs to be sustained to end the HIV epidemic. |
Occupational animal exposure among persons with campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis - Nebraska, 2005-2015
Su CP , Stover DT , Buss BF , Carlson AV , Luckhaupt SE . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2017 66 (36) 955-958 Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium are two common causes of gastroenteritis in the United States. National incidence rates measured for these pathogens in 2015 were 17.7 and 3.0 per 100,000 population, respectively; Nebraska was among the states with the highest incidence for both campylobacteriosis (26.6) and cryptosporidiosis (≥6.01) (1). Although campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis are primarily transmitted via consumption of contaminated food or water, they can also be acquired through contact with live animals or animal products, including through occupational exposure (2). This exposure route is of particular interest in Nebraska, where animal agriculture and associated industries are an important part of the state's economy. To estimate the percentage of disease that might be related to occupational animal exposure in Nebraska, the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services (NDHHS) and CDC reviewed deidentified investigation reports from 2005 to 2015 of cases of campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis among Nebraska residents aged ≥14 years. Case investigation notes were searched for evidence of occupational animal exposures, which were classified into discrete categories based on industry, animal/meat, and specific work activity/exposure. Occupational animal exposure was identified in 16.6% of 3,352 campylobacteriosis and 8.7% of 1,070 cryptosporidiosis cases, among which animal production (e.g., farming or ranching) was the most commonly mentioned industry type (68.2% and 78.5%, respectively), followed by employment in animal slaughter and processing facilities (16.3% and 5.4%, respectively). Among animal/meat occupational exposures, cattle/beef was most commonly mentioned, with exposure to feedlots (concentrated animal feeding operations in which animals are fed on stored feeds) reported in 29.9% of campylobacteriosis and 7.9% of cryptosporidiosis cases. Close contact with animals and manure in feedlots and other farm settings might place workers in these areas at increased risk for infection. It is important to educate workers with occupational animal exposure about the symptoms of enteric diseases and prevention measures. Targeting prevention strategies to high-risk workplaces and activities could help reduce disease. |
The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance
Bennani A , El-Kettani A , Hancali A , El-Rhilani H , Alami K , Youbi M , Rowley J , Abu-Raddad L , Smolak A , Taylor M , Mahiane G , Stover J , Korenromp EL . PLoS One 2017 12 (8) e0181498 BACKGROUND: Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. METHODS: Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. RESULTS: In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. CONCLUSIONS: Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re-calibrate next trend estimations. |
HIV-associated mortality in the era of antiretroviral therapy scale-up - Nairobi, Kenya, 2015.
Young PW , Kim AA , Wamicwe J , Nyagah L , Kiama C , Stover J , Oduor J , Rogena EA , Walong E , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Imbwaga A , Sirengo M , Kellogg TA , De Cock KM . PLoS One 2017 12 (8) e0181837 BACKGROUND: Declines in HIV prevalence and increases in antiretroviral treatment coverage have been documented in Kenya, but population-level mortality associated with HIV has not been directly measured. In urban areas where a majority of deaths pass through mortuaries, mortuary-based studies have the potential to contribute to our understanding of excess mortality among HIV-infected persons. We used results from a cross-sectional mortuary-based HIV surveillance study to estimate the association between HIV and mortality for Nairobi, the capital city of Kenya. METHODS AND FINDINGS: HIV seropositivity in cadavers measured at the two largest mortuaries in Nairobi was used to estimate HIV prevalence in adult deaths. Model-based estimates of the HIV-infected and uninfected population for Nairobi were used to calculate a standardized mortality ratio and population-attributable fraction for mortality among the infected versus uninfected population. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess sensitivity to epidemiological assumptions. When standardized to the age and sex distribution of expected deaths, the estimated HIV positivity among adult deaths aged 15 years and above in Nairobi was 20.9% (95% CI 17.7-24.6%). The standardized mortality ratio of deaths among HIV-infected versus uninfected adults was 4.35 (95% CI 3.67-5.15), while the risk difference was 0.016 (95% CI 0.013-0.019). The HIV population attributable mortality fraction was 0.161 (95% CI 0.131-0.190). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated robustness of results. CONCLUSIONS: Although 73.6% of adult PLHIV receive antiretrovirals in Nairobi, their risk of death is four-fold greater than in the uninfected, while 16.1% of all adult deaths in the city can be attributed to HIV infection. In order to further reduce HIV-associated mortality, high-burden countries may need to reach very high levels of diagnosis, treatment coverage, retention in care, and viral suppression. |
Empirical validation of the UNAIDS Spectrum model for subnational HIV estimates: case-study of children and adults in Manicaland, Zimbabwe
Silhol R , Gregson S , Nyamukapa C , Mhangara M , Dzangare J , Gonese E , Eaton JW , Case KK , Mahy M , Stover J , Mugurungi O . AIDS 2017 31 Suppl 1 S41-s50 BACKGROUND: More cost-effective HIV control may be achieved by targeting geographical areas with high infection rates. The AIDS Impact model of Spectrum - used routinely to produce national HIV estimates - could provide the required subnational estimates but is rarely validated with empirical data, even at a national level. DESIGN: The validity of the Spectrum model estimates were compared with empirical estimates. METHODS: Antenatal surveillance and population survey data from a population HIV cohort study in Manicaland, East Zimbabwe, were input into Spectrum 5.441 to create a simulation representative of the cohort population. Model and empirical estimates were compared for key demographic and epidemiological outcomes. Alternative scenarios for data availability were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted for model assumptions considered important for subnational estimates. RESULTS: Spectrum estimates generally agreed with observed data but HIV incidence estimates were higher than empirical estimates, whereas estimates of early age all-cause adult mortality were lower. Child HIV prevalence estimates matched well with the survey prevalence among children. Estimated paternal orphanhood was lower than empirical estimates. Including observations from earlier in the epidemic did not improve the HIV incidence model fit. Migration had little effect on observed discrepancies - possibly because the model ignores differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents. CONCLUSION: The Spectrum model, using subnational surveillance and population data, provided reasonable subnational estimates although some discrepancies were noted. Differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents may need to be captured in the model if applied to subnational epidemics. |
Acute occupational pesticide-related illness and injury -United States, 2007-2011
Calvert GM , Beckman J , Prado JB , Bojes H , Schwartz A , Mulay P , Leinenkugel K , Higgins S , Lackovic M , Waltz J , Stover D , Moraga-McHaley S . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2016 63 (55) 11-16 CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) collects data on acute pesticide-related illness and injury reported by 12 states (California, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Texas, and Washington). This report summarizes the data on illnesses and injuries arising from occupational exposure to conventional pesticides from 2007 through 2011. This report is a part of the Summary of Notifiable Noninfectious Conditions and Disease Outbreaks - United States, which encompasses various surveillance years but is being published in 2016. The Summary of Notifiable Noninfectious Conditions and Disease Outbreaks appears in the same volume of MMWR as the annual Summary of Notifiable Infectious Diseases. In a separate report, data on illnesses and injuries from nonoccupational exposure to pesticides during 2007-2011 are summarized. |
Time to think about nutrient needs in chronic disease
Stover PJ , Berry RJ , Field MS . JAMA Intern Med 2016 176 (10) 1451-1452 There is renewed interest in health benefits of folic acid supplementation since the China Stroke Prevention Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT) showed the potential benefits of folic acid in preventing stroke in Chinese adults with hypertension.1 It has long been known that folic acid prevents neural tube defects, which are among the most severe and debilitating congenital birth defects worldwide. The CSPPT was terminated early when 800 μg of folic acid in combination with 10 mg of enalapril significantly reduced primary stroke incidence compared with the enalapril alone treatment arm. This finding was unexpected as other studies had failed to find a preventive effect of folic acid supplementation on cardiovascular events.2 In this issue of JAMA Internal Medicine, Xu et al3 report findings from a prespecified CSPPT substudy that demonstrated that the folic acid–enalapril combination was more effective than enalapril alone in the secondary prevention of renal function decline among Chinese adults with hypertension across a spectrum of mild to moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD). | Folic acid is commonly administered to treat hyperhomocysteinemia, but the benefits of homocysteine lowering on the prevention or management of most chronic diseases associated with hyperhomocysteinemia remains unproven.2 In the renal substudy of the CSPPT,3 Xu and colleagues report that 42% of participants with CKD exhibited hyperhomocysteinemia (serum homocysteine ≥15 μM) and 24% had diabetes, compared with only 26% with hyperhomocysteinemia and 12% with diabetes in those without CKD. Individuals who were homozygous for the MTHFR C677T polymorphism, a genetic variant that expresses an enzyme with reduced 5-methyltetra-hydrofolate synthesis activity, exhibited the greatest reduction in serum homocysteine following folic acid–enalapril treatment because their baseline levels of circulating homocysteine were higher. This finding is consistent with other studies suggesting that the current recommended dietary intake for folate may not be adequate for individuals homozygous for the MTHFR 677T variant when homocysteine lowering is used as the functional biomarker to assess folate status.4 |
Modelling and estimation of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India, 2010-2011
Raj Y , Sahu D , Pandey A , Venkatesh S , Reddy D , Bakkali T , Das C , Singh KJ , Kant S , Bhattacharya M , Stover J , Jha UM , Kumar P , Mishra RM , Chandra N , Gulati BK , Mathur S , Joshi D , Chavan L . Int J STD AIDS 2015 27 (14) 1257-1266 This paper provides HIV estimation methodology used in India and key HIV estimates for 2010-2011. We used a modified version of the Spectrum tool that included Estimation and Projection Package as part of its AIDS Impact Module. Inputs related to population size, age-specific pattern of fertility, sex-ratio at birth, age and sex-specific pattern of mortality, and volume and age-sex distribution of net migration were derived from census records, Sample Registration System and large-scale demographic health surveys. Epidemiological and programmatic data were derived from HIV sentinel surveillance, large-scale epidemiological surveys and the programme management information system. Estimated adult HIV prevalence retained a declining trend in India, following its peak in 2002 at a level of 0.41% (within bounds 0.35-0.47%). By 2010 and 2011, it levelled at estimates of 0.28% (0.24-0.34%) and 0.27% (0.22-0.33%), respectively. The estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) reduced by 8% between 2007 and 2011. While children accounted for approximately 6.3% of total HIV infections in 2007, this proportion increased to about 7% in 2011. With changing priorities and epidemic patterns, the programme has to customise its strategies to effectively address the emerging vulnerabilities and adapt them to suit the requirements of different geographical regions. |
Biomarkers of nutrition for development - folate review
Bailey LB , Stover PJ , McNulty H , Fenech MF , Gregory JF 3rd , Mills JL , Pfeiffer CM , Fazili Z , Zhang M , Ueland PM , Molloy AM , Caudill MA , Shane B , Berry RJ , Bailey RL , Hausman DB , Raghavan R , Raiten DJ . J Nutr 2015 145 (7) 1636S-80S The Biomarkers of Nutrition for Development (BOND) project is designed to provide evidence-based advice to anyone with an interest in the role of nutrition in health. Specifically, the BOND program provides state-of-the-art information and service with regard to selection, use, and interpretation of biomarkers of nutrient exposure, status, function, and effect. To accomplish this objective, expert panels are recruited to evaluate the literature and to draft comprehensive reports on the current state of the art with regard to specific nutrient biology and available biomarkers for assessing nutrients in body tissues at the individual and population level. Phase I of the BOND project includes the evaluation of biomarkers for 6 nutrients: iodine, iron, zinc, folate, vitamin A, and vitamin B-12. This review represents the second in the series of reviews and covers all relevant aspects of folate biology and biomarkers. The article is organized to provide the reader with a full appreciation of folate's history as a public health issue, its biology, and an overview of available biomarkers (serum folate, RBC folate, and plasma homocysteine concentrations) and their interpretation across a range of clinical and population-based uses. The article also includes a list of priority research needs for advancing the area of folate biomarkers related to nutritional health status and development. |
A comparison of South African national HIV incidence estimates: a critical appraisal of different methods
Rehle T , Johnson L , Hallett T , Mahy M , Kim A , Odido H , Onoya D , Jooste S , Shisana O , Puren A , Parekh B , Stover J . PLoS One 2015 10 (7) e0133255 BACKGROUND: The interpretation of HIV prevalence trends is increasingly difficult as antiretroviral treatment programs expand. Reliable HIV incidence estimates are critical to monitoring transmission trends and guiding an effective national response to the epidemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a range of methods to estimate HIV incidence in South Africa: (i) an incidence testing algorithm applying the Limiting-Antigen Avidity Assay (LAg-Avidity EIA) in combination with antiretroviral drug and HIV viral load testing; (ii) a modelling technique based on the synthetic cohort principle; and (iii) two dynamic mathematical models, the EPP/Spectrum model package and the Thembisa model. Overall, the different incidence estimation methods were in broad agreement on HIV incidence estimates among persons aged 15-49 years in 2012. The assay-based method produced slightly higher estimates of incidence, 1.72% (95% CI 1.38 - 2.06), compared with the mathematical models, 1.47% (95% CI 1.23 - 1.72) in Thembisa and 1.52% (95% CI 1.43 - 1.62) in EPP/Spectrum, and slightly lower estimates of incidence compared to the synthetic cohort, 1.9% (95% CI 0.8 - 3.1) over the period from 2008 to 2012. Among youth aged 15-24 years, a declining trend in HIV incidence was estimated by all three mathematical estimation methods. CONCLUSIONS: The multi-method comparison showed similar levels and trends in HIV incidence and validated the estimates provided by the assay-based incidence testing algorithm. Our results confirm that South Africa is the country with the largest number of new HIV infections in the world, with about 1 000 new infections occurring each day among adults aged 15-49 years in 2012. |
Repeated measures study of weekly and daily cytomegalovirus shedding patterns in saliva and urine of healthy cytomegalovirus-seropositive children
Cannon MJ , Stowell JD , Clark R , Dollard PR , Johnson D , Mask K , Stover C , Wu K , Amin M , Hendley W , Guo J , Schmid DS , Dollard SC . BMC Infect Dis 2014 14 (569) 569 BACKGROUND: To better understand potential transmission risks from contact with the body fluids of children, we monitored the presence and amount of CMV shedding over time in healthy CMV-seropositive children. METHODS: Through screening we identified 36 children from the Atlanta, Georgia area who were CMV-seropositive, including 23 who were shedding CMV at the time of screening. Each child received 12 weekly in-home visits at which field workers collected saliva and urine. During the final two weeks, parents also collected saliva and urine daily. RESULTS: Prevalence of shedding was highly correlated with initial shedding status: children shedding at the screening visit had CMV DNA in 84% of follow-up saliva specimens (455/543) and 28% of follow-up urine specimens (151/539); those not shedding at the screening visit had CMV DNA in 16% of follow-up saliva specimens (47/303) and 5% of follow-up urine specimens (16/305). Among positive specimens we found median viral loads of 82,900 copies/mL in saliva and 34,730 copies/mL in urine (P=0.01), while the viral load for the 75th percentile was nearly 1.5 million copies/mL for saliva compared to 86,800 copies/mL for urine. Younger age was significantly associated with higher viral loads, especially for saliva (P<0.001). Shedding prevalence and viral loads were relatively stable over time. All children who were shedding at the screening visit were still shedding at least some days during weeks 11 and 12, and median and mean viral loads did not change substantially over time. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy CMV-seropositive children can shed CMV for months at high, relatively stable levels. These data suggest that behavioral prevention messages need to address transmission via both saliva and urine, but also need to be informed by the potentially higher risks posed by saliva and by exposures to younger children. |
Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models
Eaton JW , Menzies NA , Stover J , Cambiano V , Chindelevitch L , Cori A , Hontelez JA , Humair S , Kerr CC , Klein DJ , Mishra S , Mitchell KM , Nichols BE , Vickerman P , Bakker R , Bärnighausen T , Bershteyn A , Bloom DE , Boily MC , Chang ST , Cohen T , Dodd PJ , Fraser C , Gopalappa C , Lundgren J , Martin NK , Mikkelsen E , Mountain E , Pham QD , Pickles M , Phillips A , Platt L , Pretorius C , Prudden HJ , Salomon JA , van de Vijver DA , de Vlas SJ , Wagner BG , White RG , Wilson DP , Zhang L , Blandford J , Meyer-Rath G , Remme M , Revill P , Sangrujee N , Terris-Prestholt F , Doherty M , Shaffer N , Easterbrook PJ , Hirnschall G , Hallett TB . Lancet Glob Health 2014 2 (1) e23-34 BACKGROUND: New WHO guidelines recommend initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive adults with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers have to decide whether to further expand eligibility for antiretroviral therapy accordingly. We aimed to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage. METHODS: We used several independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa (generalised epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), Zambia (generalised epidemic, high antiretroviral therapy coverage), India (concentrated epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), and Vietnam (concentrated epidemic, low antiretroviral therapy coverage)-to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy under scenarios of existing and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses assessed the extension of eligibility to include individuals with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, or all HIV-positive adults, compared with the previous (2010) recommendation of initiation with CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or less. We assessed costs from a health-system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost (in US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted to compare competing strategies. Strategies were regarded very cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than the country's 2012 per-head gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040; Zambia: $1425; India: $1489; Vietnam: $1407) and cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than three times the per-head GDP. FINDINGS: In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending eligibility for antiretroviral therapy to adult patients with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less ranged from $237 to $1691 per DALY averted compared with 2010 guidelines. In Zambia, expansion of eligibility to adults with a CD4 count threshold of 500 cells per μL ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (ie, dominating the previous guidelines) to $749 per DALY averted. In both countries results were similar for expansion of eligibility to all HIV-positive adults, and when substantially expanded treatment coverage was assumed. Expansion of treatment coverage in the general population was also cost effective. In India, the cost for extending eligibility to all HIV-positive adults ranged from $131 to $241 per DALY averted, and in Vietnam extending eligibility to patients with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less cost $290 per DALY averted. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access for key populations was also cost effective. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates suggest that earlier eligibility for antiretroviral therapy is very cost effective in low-income and middle-income settings, although these estimates should be revisited when more data become available. Scaling up antiretroviral therapy through earlier eligibility and expanded coverage should be considered alongside other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO. |
On the road to a stronger public health workforce: visual tools to address complex challenges
Drehobl P , Stover BH , Koo D . Am J Prev Med 2014 47 S280-285 The public health workforce is vital to protecting the health and safety of the public, yet for years, state and local governmental public health agencies have reported substantial workforce losses and other challenges to the workforce that threaten the public's health. These challenges are complex, often involve multiple influencing or related causal factors, and demand comprehensive solutions. However, proposed solutions often focus on selected factors and might be fragmented rather than comprehensive. This paper describes approaches to characterizing the situation more comprehensively and includes two visual tools: (1) a fishbone, or Ishikawa, diagram that depicts multiple factors affecting the public health workforce; and (2) a roadmap that displays key elements-goals and strategies-to strengthen the public health workforce, thus moving from the problems depicted in the fishbone toward solutions. The visual tools aid thinking about ways to strengthen the public health workforce through collective solutions and to help leverage resources and build on each other's work. The strategic roadmap is intended to serve as a dynamic tool for partnership, prioritization, and gap assessment. These tools reflect and support CDC's commitment to working with partners on the highest priorities for strengthening the workforce to improve the public's health. |
Would targeting increase efficiency of syphilis partner services programs? - data from New York City, Philadelphia, Texas, and Virginia
Hoots BE , Lewis FM , Anschuetz G , Schillinger JA , Blank S , Foskey T , Stover JA , Peterman TA . Sex Transm Dis 2014 41 (6) 407-12 BACKGROUND: Targeted partner notification (PN), or limiting PN to groups in which efforts are most successful, has been suggested as a potentially cost-effective alternative to providing PN for all syphilis case-patients. The purpose of this study was to identify index case characteristics associated with highest yield partner elicitation and subsequent case finding to determine whether some groups could be reasonably excluded from PN efforts. METHODS: We examined index case characteristics and PN metrics from syphilis case management records of 4 sexually transmitted disease control programs-New York City, Philadelphia, Texas, and Virginia. Partner elicitation was considered successful when a case-patient named 1 or more partners during interview. Case finding was considered successful when a case-patient had 1 or more partners who were tested and had serologic evidence of syphilis exposure. Associations between case characteristics and proportion of pursued case-patients with successful partner elicitation and case finding were evaluated using chi tests. RESULTS: Successful partner elicitation and new case finding was most likely for index case-patients who were younger and diagnosed at public sexually transmitted disease clinics. However, most characteristics of index case-patients were related to success at only a few sites, or varied in the direction of the relationship by site. Other than late latent case-patients, few demographic groups had a yield far below average. CONCLUSIONS: If implemented, targeted PN will require site-specific data. Sites may consider eliminating PN for late latent case-patients. The lack of demographic groups with a below average yield suggests that sites should not exclude other groups from PN. |
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