BACKGROUND: In June 2021, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended use of either 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) alone or 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15) in series with 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) for all PCV-unvaccinated adults aged ≥65 years (age-based) and for adults aged 19-64 years with conditions that increase the risk for pneumococcal disease (risk-based). This recommendation replaced a previous recommendation for PPSV23 with or without 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) for these groups. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of age-based and risk-based use of either PCV15 in series with PPSV23 or PCV20 alone when compared to previous recommendations. METHODS: We utilized probabilistic cohort models of all 65-year-olds (age-based) and 19-year-olds (risk-based through age 64 years and age-based at age 65 years). A spreadsheet-based Monte Carlo simulation software was used to estimate immunization costs, medical costs, non-medical costs, and overall disease burden under different vaccine strategies. The model tracked inpatient invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and non-bacteremic pneumonia (NBP) in inpatient and outpatient settings. One-way sensitivity analyses incorporated indirect effects of prospective pediatric vaccination with PCV15 and PCV20 on adult IPD and NBP incidence. Costs were reported in 2021 US dollars. All future costs and outcomes were discounted at 3 % per year. RESULTS: Age-based use of either PCV20 alone or PCV15 in series with PPSV23 at age 65 years were both shown to be cost-saving (improved health outcomes and saved costs). Combined cost-effectiveness of risk-based (19-64 years) plus age-based (65 years) (risk-and-age-based) use of PCV20 alone was cost-saving, whereas use of PCV15 in series with PPSV23 increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) but cost $412,111 (95 % CI: 270,295, 694,869) per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: In U.S. adults, replacing the previous recommendations with PCV20 alone or PCV15 in series with PPSV23 improved health outcomes. Except for risk-and-age-based use of PCV15 in series with PPSV23 that resulted in increased cost per QALY gained, the interventions also reduced costs.

BACKGROUND: Although use of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) among children has reduced incidence of pneumococcal disease, a considerable burden of disease remains. PCV15 is a new vaccine that contains pneumococcal serotypes 22F and 33F in addition to serotypes contained in PCV13. To inform deliberations by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on recommendations for PCV15 use among U.S. children, we estimated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of replacing PCV13 with PCV15 within the routine infant immunization program in the United States. We also assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of a supplementary PCV15 dose among children aged 2-5 years who have already received a full PCV13 series. METHODS: We estimated the incremental number of pneumococcal disease events and deaths averted, costs per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and costs per life-year gained under different vaccination strategies using a probabilistic model following a single birth cohort of 3.9 million individuals (based on 2020 U.S. birth cohort). We assumed that vaccine effectiveness (VE) of PCV15 against the two additional serotypes was the same as the VE of PCV13. The cost of PCV15 use among children was informed from costs of PCV15 use among adults and from discussions with the manufacturer. RESULTS: Our base case results found that replacing PCV13 with PCV15 prevented 92,290 additional pneumococcal disease events and 22 associated deaths, while also saving $147 million in costs. A supplementary PCV15 dose among children aged 2-5 years who were fully vaccinated with PCV13 prevented further pneumococcal disease events and associated deaths but at a cost of more than $2.5 million per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: A further decrease in pneumococcal disease in conjunction with considerable societal cost savings could be expected from replacing PCV13 with PCV15 within the routine infant immunization program in the United States.

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are often prepared to quantify the expected economic value of potential vaccination strategies. Estimated outcomes and costs of vaccination strategies depend on numerous data inputs or assumptions, including estimates of vaccine efficacy and disease incidence in the absence of vaccination. Limitations in epidemiologic data can meaningfully affect both CEA estimates and the interpretation of those results by groups involved in vaccination policy decisions. Developers of CEAs should be transparent with regard to the ambiguity and uncertainty associated with epidemiologic information that is incorporated into their models. We describe selected data-related challenges to conducting CEAs for vaccination strategies, including generalizability of estimates of vaccine effectiveness, duration and functional form of vaccine protection that can change over time, indirect (herd) protection, and serotype replacement. We illustrate how CEA estimates can be sensitive to variations in specific epidemiologic assumptions, with examples from CEAs conducted for the USA that assessed vaccinations against human papillomavirus and pneumococcal disease. These challenges are certainly not limited to these two case studies and may be relevant to other vaccines.

In June 2019, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) changed the recommendation for routine 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) use in immunocompetent adults aged ≥65 years, including those with select chronic medical conditions (CMC). ACIP now recommends PCV13 for this group of adults based on shared clinical decision-making. Because adults with CMC continue to be at increased risk for pneumococcal disease, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of administering PCV13 in series with the recommended 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) for adults aged ≥19 years with CMC. We used a probabilistic model following a cohort of 19-year-old adults. We used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the impact on program, medical, and non-medical costs (in 2017 U.S. dollars [$], societal perspective), and pneumococcal disease burden when administering PCV13 in series with PPSV23. We used PCV13 efficacy and post-licensure vaccine effectiveness (VE) data to estimate VE against PCV13 type disease (separately for disease by serotype 3 [ST3], the most common PCV13 type, and all other PCV13 serotypes). We considered a range of estimates for sensitivity analyses. Analyses were performed in 2019. In the base case, assuming no PCV13 effectiveness against ST3 disease, adding a dose of PCV13 upon CMC diagnosis cost $689,299 per QALY gained. This declined to $79,416 per QALY if VE against ST3 was estimated to be equivalent to other PCV13-types. Administering PCV13 in series with the recommended PPSV23 for adults with CMC was not cost saving. Results were sensitive to estimated PCV13 VE against ST3 disease.

Data on the detailed clinical progression of COVID-19 in conjunction with epidemiological and virological characteristics are limited. In this case series, we describe the first 12 US patients confirmed to have COVID-19 from 20 January to 5 February 2020, including 4 patients described previously(1-3). Respiratory, stool, serum and urine specimens were submitted for SARS-CoV-2 real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing, viral culture and whole genome sequencing. Median age was 53 years (range: 21-68); 8 patients were male. Common symptoms at illness onset were cough (n = 8) and fever (n = 7). Patients had mild to moderately severe illness; seven were hospitalized and demonstrated clinical or laboratory signs of worsening during the second week of illness. No patients required mechanical ventilation and all recovered. All had SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected in respiratory specimens, typically for 2-3 weeks after illness onset. Lowest real-time PCR with reverse transcription cycle threshold values in the upper respiratory tract were often detected in the first week and SARS-CoV-2 was cultured from early respiratory specimens. These data provide insight into the natural history of SARS-CoV-2. Although infectiousness is unclear, highest viral RNA levels were identified in the first week of illness. Clinicians should anticipate that some patients may worsen in the second week of illness.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), first detected in China in December, 2019. In January, 2020, state, local, and federal public health agencies investigated the first case of COVID-19 in Illinois, USA. METHODS: Patients with confirmed COVID-19 were defined as those with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Contacts were people with exposure to a patient with COVID-19 on or after the patient's symptom onset date. Contacts underwent active symptom monitoring for 14 days following their last exposure. Contacts who developed fever, cough, or shortness of breath became persons under investigation and were tested for SARS-CoV-2. A convenience sample of 32 asymptomatic health-care personnel contacts were also tested. FINDINGS: Patient 1-a woman in her 60s-returned from China in mid-January, 2020. One week later, she was hospitalised with pneumonia and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Her husband (Patient 2) did not travel but had frequent close contact with his wife. He was admitted 8 days later and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 372 contacts of both cases were identified; 347 underwent active symptom monitoring, including 152 community contacts and 195 health-care personnel. Of monitored contacts, 43 became persons under investigation, in addition to Patient 2. These 43 persons under investigation and all 32 asymptomatic health-care personnel tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. INTERPRETATION: Person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 occurred between two people with prolonged, unprotected exposure while Patient 1 was symptomatic. Despite active symptom monitoring and testing of symptomatic and some asymptomatic contacts, no further transmission was detected. FUNDING: None.

The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official positon of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. BACKGROUND: Continued indirect effects provided by the childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine [PCV13]) program in the United States have decreased disease in the adult population, reducing the potential direct effects of vaccinating older adults. OBJECTIVE: We examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of continuing to recommend PCV13 in series with 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) at age 65 compared to a strategy that only included a recommendation for PPSV23 at age 65. METHODS: We used a probabilistic model following a cohort of 65 year olds in 2019. We used vaccination coverage and disease incidence estimates for healthy adults and adults with chronic medical conditions. We incorporated continued indirect effects from the childhood PCV13 program on adult disease incidence. RESULTS: In the base case scenario, continuing to recommend PCV13 at age 65 cost $561,682 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. In a scenario where PPSV23 provided modest protection against non-invasive pneumococcal pneumonia, costs increased to $2.3 million per QALY. These estimates are larger than our prior estimates for cost-effectiveness of this recommendation in the context of predicted indirect effects due to new data indicating PCV13 provided limited impact on serotype 3, the major cause of the remaining PCV13-type disease. Under our prior assumptions about PCV13 effectiveness against serotype 3 disease, the cost of continuing the recommendation is $207,607 per QALY. CONCLUSION: Indirect effects from the childhood PCV13 program have dramatically increased the cost per QALY of continuing to recommend PCV13 at age 65 after only a few years.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women and infants are at increased risk of severe disease from influenza. Antenatal influenza vaccination is safe and can reduce the risk of illness for women and their infants. We evaluated for South Africa the health effects of antenatal influenza vaccination among pregnant women and their infants aged <6 months old and assessed its cost-effectiveness. METHODS: We constructed a decision tree model to simulate the population of pregnant women and infants aged <6 months in South Africa using TreeAge Pro Suite 2015. The model evaluated the change in societal costs and outcomes associated with a vaccination campaign that prioritized HIV-infected over HIV-uninfected pregnant women compared with no vaccination. We also examined the impacts of a campaign without prioritization. Upper and lower 90% uncertainty intervals (90% UI) were generated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis on 10000 Monte Carlo simulations. The cost-effectiveness threshold was set to the 2015 per capita gross domestic product of South Africa, US$5724. RESULTS: Antenatal vaccination with prioritization averted 9070 (90% UI: 7407-11217) total cases of influenza among pregnant women and infants, including 411 (90% UI: 305-546) hospitalizations and 30 (90% UI: 22-40) deaths. This corresponds to an averted fraction of 13.5% (90% UI: 9.0-20.5%). Vaccinating without prioritization averted 7801 (90% UI: 6465-9527) cases of influenza, including 335 (90% UI: 254-440) hospitalizations and 24 (90% UI: 18-31) deaths. This corresponds to an averted fraction of 11.6% (90% UI: 7.8-17.4%). Vaccinating the cohort of pregnant women with prioritization had societal cost of $4689 (90% UI: $3128-$7294) per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained while vaccinating without prioritization had a cost of $5924 (90% UI: $3992-$9056) per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Antenatal influenza vaccination campaigns in South Africa would reduce the impact of influenza and could be cost-effective.

BACKGROUND: Coverage levels for many recommended adult vaccinations are low. The cost-effectiveness research literature on adult vaccinations has not been synthesized in recent years, which may contribute to low awareness of the value of adult vaccinations and to their under-utilization. We assessed research literature since 1980 to summarize economic evidence for adult vaccinations included on the adult immunization schedule. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, EconLit, and Cochrane Library from 1980 to 2016 and identified economic evaluation or cost-effectiveness analysis for vaccinations targeting persons aged >/=18years in the U.S. or Canada. After excluding records based on title and abstract reviews, the remaining publications had a full-text review from two independent reviewers, who extracted economic values that compared vaccination to "no vaccination" scenarios. RESULTS: The systematic searches yielded 1688 publications. After removing duplicates, off-topic publications, and publications without a "no vaccination" comparison, 78 publications were included in the final analysis (influenza=25, pneumococcal=18, human papillomavirus=9, herpes zoster=7, tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis=9, hepatitis B=9, and multiple vaccines=1). Among outcomes assessing age-based vaccinations, the percent indicating cost-savings was 56% for influenza, 31% for pneumococcal, and 23% for tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccinations. Among age-based vaccination outcomes reporting $/QALY, the percent of outcomes indicating a cost per QALY of </=$100,000 was 100% for influenza, 100% for pneumococcal, 69% for human papillomavirus, 71% for herpes zoster, and 50% for tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccinations. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of published studies report favorable cost-effectiveness profiles for adult vaccinations, which supports efforts to improve the implementation of adult vaccination recommendations.

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.

Prior research indicates that cost-sharing and lack of insurance coverage reduce preventive services use among low-income persons. State Medicaid policy may affect the uptake of recommended adult vaccinations. We examined the impact of three aspects of Medicaid benefit design (coverage for vaccines, prohibiting cost-sharing, and copayment amounts) on vaccine uptake in the fee-for-service Medicaid population 19-64 years old. We combined previously published reports to obtain state Medicaid policy information from 2003 and 2012. Data on influenza vaccination uptake were taken from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We used a differences-in-differences framework, controlling for national trends and state differences, to estimate the effect of each benefit design factor on vaccination uptake in different Medicaid-eligible populations. Each additional dollar of copayment for vaccination decreased influenza vaccination coverage 1-6 percentage points. The effects of covering vaccines or prohibiting cost-sharing were mixed. Imposing copayments for vaccination is associated with lower vaccination coverage. These findings have implications for the implementation of Medicaid expansion in states that currently impose copayments.

BACKGROUND: Recently released results from a randomized controlled trial have shown that 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is efficacious against vaccine-type nonbacteremic pneumonia in adults. OBJECTIVE: We examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of adding PCV13 to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) adult immunization schedule. METHODS: We used a probabilistic model following cohorts of 50-, 60-, or 65-year-olds. We used separate vaccination coverage and disease incidence data for healthy and high-risk adults. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were determined for each potential vaccination strategy. RESULTS: In the base case scenario, our model indicated that adding PCV13 at age 65 or replacing 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) at age 65 with PCV13 provided more value for money than adding PCV13 at ages 50 or 60. After projections of six additional years of herd protection from the childhood immunization program were incorporated, we found adding PCV13 dominated replacing PPSV23. For a cohort of 65-year-olds in 2013, the cost of adding PCV13 at age 65 to the schedule was $62,065 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, which rose to $272,621 after 6 years of projected herd protection. CONCLUSION: The addition of one dose of PCV13 for adults appears to have a cost-effectiveness ratio comparable to other vaccination interventions in the short run, though anticipated herd protection from the childhood immunization program may dramatically increase the cost per QALY after only a few years.

Lofa County has one of the highest cumulative incidences of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in Liberia. Recent situation reports from the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MoHSW) have indicated a decrease in new cases of Ebola in Lofa County. In October 2014, the Liberian MoHSW requested the assistance of CDC to further characterize recent trends in Ebola in Lofa County. Data collected during June 8-November 1, 2014 from three sources were analyzed: 1) aggregate data for newly reported cases, 2) case-based data for persons admitted to the dedicated Ebola treatment unit (ETU) for the county, and 3) test results for community decedents evaluated for Ebola. Trends from all three sources suggest that transmission of Ebola virus decreased as early as August 17, 2014, following rapid scale-up of response activities in Lofa County after a resurgence of Ebola in early June 2014. The comprehensive response strategy developed with participation from the local population in Lofa County might serve as a model to implement in other affected areas to accelerate control of Ebola.

On August 13, 2014, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended routine use of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13 [Prevnar 13, Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a subsidiary of Pfizer Inc.]) among adults aged ≥65 years. PCV13 should be administered in series with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23 [Pneumovax23, Merck & Co., Inc.]), the vaccine currently recommended for adults aged ≥65 years. PCV13 was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in late 2011 for use among adults aged ≥50 years. In June 2014, the results of a randomized placebo-controlled trial evaluating efficacy of PCV13 for preventing community-acquired pneumonia among approximately 85,000 adults aged ≥65 years with no prior pneumococcal vaccination history (CAPiTA trial) became available and were presented to ACIP. The evidence supporting PCV13 vaccination of adults was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework and determined to be type 2 (moderate level of evidence); the recommendation was categorized as a Category A recommendation. This report outlines the new recommendations for PCV13 use, provides guidance for use of PCV13 and PPSV23 among adults aged ≥65 years, and summarizes the evidence considered by ACIP to make this recommendation.

BACKGROUND: In June, 2012 a single dose of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was added to the recommendation for immunocompromised adults who were previously recommended to receive only 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23). PCV13 may be more effective, though it covers fewer disease-causing strains. OBJECTIVE: We examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of adding one dose of PCV13 to the pre-2012 recommendation of PPSV23 for adults with 4 immunocompromising conditions who are at increased risk of pneumococcal disease: HIV/AIDS, hematologic cancer, solid organ transplants, and end stage renal disease. METHODS: We used a probabilistic model following a single cohort of 302,397 immunocompromised adults. We used vaccination coverage and disease incidence data specific to each immunocompromising condition. Assumptions about PPSV23 and PCV13 vaccine effectiveness were based on two randomized controlled trials and several observational studies conducted among HIV-infected adults. Because no such studies have been conducted among other immunocompromised populations, we made further assumptions about the relative vaccine effectiveness in those groups. Cost-effectiveness ratios were determined for each condition and for all 4 groups in total. RESULTS: Our model indicated that adding one dose of PCV13 to adults in the United States with 4 immunocompromising conditions would cost $16 million (in 2009$) but provide off-setting savings of $21 million per cohort from the societal perspective. These savings come largely from decreased medical costs among adults with end stage renal disease. This dose of PCV13 would prevent 57 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease, 619 cases of hospitalized all-cause pneumonia, avert 93 deaths, and save 1360 quality adjusted life years per cohort. CONCLUSION: The addition of one dose of PCV13 to the previously recommended PPSV23 doses for adults with selected immunocompromised conditions potentially reduces both disease and costs.

BACKGROUND: Seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV7) has been shown to reduce rates of otitis media (OM) when given as a 2- or 3-dose primary series followed by a booster dose. However, data on the 2- or 3-dose primary series' relative effectiveness against OM is very limited. Using data from the United States after the 2000 introduction of PCV7, we compared the effectiveness of a 2- versus a 3-dose primary series against acute otitis media (AOM). METHODS: We examined the 2002 birth cohort from the Medstat MarketScan insurance claims database and compared the incidence of AOM in children that received two or three doses in the primary PCV7 series using propensity score matching. We assessed AOM rates after completion of the primary series and before the booster dose, and after the booster dose until four years of age. RESULTS: Among the 2002 birth cohort captured by MarketScan, we identified 38,786 children we could match with immunization data; of these 8515 (22%) received a 2-dose primary series and 10,152 (26%) received a 3-dose primary series. After matching, cumulative AOM incidence between 6 and 12 months among children who did not receive a PCV7 dose between the primary series and the booster dose was 37.6% for the 2-dose series and 35.0% for the 3-dose series. This difference was not statistically significant (p=0.22). Cumulative AOM incidence between one and four years, i.e., after the booster dose, was 104.4% for the 2-dose primary series and 102.5% for the 3-dose primary series and was also statistically insignificant (p=0.87). CONCLUSION: In a population of highly-insured children, a 2-dose primary series of PCV7 appears to provide similar protection against AOM as a 3-dose primary series. These data have important implications for national immunization programs where AOM is an important driver of cost-effectiveness.