Last data update: Sep 16, 2024. (Total: 47680 publications since 2009)
Records 1-12 (of 12 Records) |
Query Trace: Simonsen L [original query] |
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Estimates of mortality associated with seasonal influenza for the European Union from the GLaMOR project
Paget J , Iuliano A Danielle , Taylor RJ , Simonsen L , Viboud C , Spreeuwenberg P . Vaccine 2022 40 (9) 1361-1369 BACKGROUND: The European Centres for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) estimates that seasonal influenzacauses 4-50 million symptomatic infections in the EU/EEA each year and 15,000-70,000 European citizens die of causes associated with influenza. We used modelling methods to estimate influenza-associated mortality for the European Union by age group and country. METHODS: We compiled influenza-associated respiratory mortality estimates for 31 countries around the world (11 countries in the EU) during 2002-2011 (excluding the 2009 pandemic). From these we extrapolated the influenza mortality burden for all 193 countries of the world, including the 28 countries of the EU, using a multiple imputation approach. To study the effect of vaccination programs, we obtained data from the EU-funded VENICE project regarding the percentage of persons over 65 who were vaccinated in each country; the data ranged from 2% to 82% between the 21 countries which provided estimates for the 2006/07 reference season. RESULTS: We estimated that an average of 27,600 (range 16,200-39,000) respiratory deaths were associated with seasonal influenza in the 28 EU countries per winter; 88% were among people 65 years and older, and the rates of mortality in this age group were roughly 35 times higher compared with those < 65 years. Estimates varied considerably across the EU; for example, rates in the elderly ranged from 21.6 (12.5-35.1) per 100,000 in Portugal to 36.5 (16.4-62.5) in Luxembourg, a difference of nearly 70%. We were unable to find a negative correlation between vaccination coverage rates and influenza-associated mortality estimates in the elderly. CONCLUSION: Our EU estimate of influenza-associated respiratory mortality is broadly consistent with the ECDC estimate. More research is needed to explain the observed variation in mortality across the EU, and on possible bias that could explain the unexpected lack of mortality benefits associated with European elderly influenza vaccination programs. |
Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City
Olson DR , Lopman BA , Konty KJ , Mathes RW , Papadouka V , Ternier A , Zucker JR , Simonsen L , Grenfell BT , Pitzer VE . Sci Adv 2020 6 (9) eaax0586 Prediction skill is a key test of models for epidemic dynamics. However, future validation of models against out-of-sample data is rare, partly because of a lack of timely surveillance data. We address this gap by analyzing the response of rotavirus dynamics to infant vaccination. Syndromic surveillance of emergency department visits for diarrhea in New York City reveals a marked decline in diarrheal incidence among infants and young children, in line with data on rotavirus-coded hospitalizations and laboratory-confirmed cases, and a shift from annual to biennial epidemics increasingly affecting older children and adults. A published mechanistic model qualitatively predicted these patterns more than 2 years in advance. Future efforts to increase vaccination coverage may disrupt these patterns and lead to further declines in the incidence of rotavirus-attributable gastroenteritis. |
Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project
Paget J , Spreeuwenberg P , Charu V , Taylor RJ , Iuliano AD , Bresee J , Simonsen L , Viboud C . J Glob Health 2019 9 (2) 020421 Background: Until recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the annual mortality burden of influenza to be 250 000 to 500 000 all-cause deaths globally; however, a 2017 study indicated a substantially higher mortality burden, at 290 000-650 000 influenza-associated deaths from respiratory causes alone, and a 2019 study estimated 99 000-200 000 deaths from lower respiratory tract infections directly caused by influenza. Here we revisit global and regional estimates of influenza mortality burden and explore mortality trends over time and geography. Methods: We compiled influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates for 31 countries representing 5 WHO regions during 2002-2011. From these we extrapolated the influenza burden for all 193 countries of the world using a multiple imputation approach. We then used mixed linear regression models to identify factors associated with high seasonal influenza mortality burden, including influenza types and subtypes, health care and socio-demographic development indicators, and baseline mortality levels. Results: We estimated an average of 389 000 (uncertainty range 294 000-518 000) respiratory deaths were associated with influenza globally each year during the study period, corresponding to ~ 2% of all annual respiratory deaths. Of these, 67% were among people 65 years and older. Global burden estimates were robust to the choice of countries included in the extrapolation model. For people <65 years, higher baseline respiratory mortality, lower level of access to health care and seasons dominated by the A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype were associated with higher influenza-associated mortality, while lower level of socio-demographic development and A(H3N2) dominance was associated with higher influenza mortality in adults >/=65 years. Conclusions: Our global estimate of influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality is consistent with the 2017 estimate, despite a different modelling strategy, and the lower 2019 estimate which only captured deaths directly caused by influenza. Our finding that baseline respiratory mortality and access to health care are associated with influenza-related mortality in persons <65 years suggests that health care improvements in low and middle-income countries might substantially reduce seasonal influenza mortality. Our estimates add to the body of evidence on the variation in influenza burden over time and geography, and begin to address the relationship between influenza-associated mortality, health and development. |
Infection prevention and control measures and tools for the prevention of entry of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae into healthcare settings: guidance from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Magiorakos AP , Burns K , Rodriguez Bano J , Borg M , Daikos G , Dumpis U , Lucet JC , Moro ML , Tacconelli E , Simonsen GS , Szilagyi E , Voss A , Weber JT . Antimicrob Resist Infect Control 2017 6 113 Background: Infections with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are increasingly being reported from patients in healthcare settings. They are associated with high patient morbidity, attributable mortality and hospital costs. Patients who are "at-risk" may be carriers of these multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (MDR-E).The purpose of this guidance is to raise awareness and identify the "at-risk" patient when admitted to a healthcare setting and to outline effective infection prevention and control measures to halt the entry and spread of CRE. Methods: The guidance was created by a group of experts who were functioning independently of their organisations, during two meetings hosted by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. A list of epidemiological risk factors placing patients "at-risk" for carriage with CRE was created by the experts. The conclusions of a systematic review on the prevention of spread of CRE, with the addition of expert opinion, were used to construct lists of core and supplemental infection prevention and control measures to be implemented for "at-risk" patients upon admission to healthcare settings. Results: Individuals with the following profile are "at-risk" for carriage of CRE: a) a history of an overnight stay in a healthcare setting in the last 12 months, b) dialysis-dependent or cancer chemotherapy in the last 12 months, c) known previous carriage of CRE in the last 12 months and d) epidemiological linkage to a known carrier of a CRE.Core infection prevention and control measures that should be considered for all patients in healthcare settings were compiled. Preliminary supplemental measures to be implemented for "at-risk" patients on admission are: pre-emptive isolation, active screening for CRE, and contact precautions. Patients who are confirmed positive for CRE will need additional supplemental measures. Conclusions: Strengthening the microbiological capacity, surveillance and reporting of new cases of CRE in healthcare settings and countries is necessary to monitor the epidemiological situation so that, if necessary, the implemented CRE prevention strategies can be refined in a timely manner. Creating a large communication network to exchange this information would be helpful to understand the extent of the CRE reservoir and to prevent infections in healthcare settings, by applying the principles outlined here.This guidance document offers suggestions for best practices, but is in no way prescriptive for all healthcare settings and all countries. Successful implementation will result if there is local commitment and accountability. The options for intervention can be adopted or adapted to local needs, depending on the availability of financial and structural resources. |
Impacts of chemical modification on the toxicity of diverse nanocellulose materials to developing zebrafish
Harper BJ , Clendaniel A , Sinche F , Way D , Hughes M , Schardt J , Simonsen J , Stefaniak AB , Harper SL . Cellulose (Lond) 2016 23 (3) 1763-1775 Cellulose is an abundant and renewable resource currently being investigated for utility in nanomaterial form for various promising applications ranging from medical and pharmaceutical uses to mechanical reinforcement and biofuels. The utility of nanocellulose and wide implementation ensures increasing exposure to humans and the environment as nanocellulose-based technologies advance. Here, we investigate how differences in aspect ratio and changes to surface chemistry, as well as synthesis methods, influence the biocompatibility of nanocellulose materials using the embryonic zebrafish. Investigations into the toxicity of neutral, cationic and anionic surface functionalities revealed that surface chemistry had a minimal influence on the overall toxicity of nanocellulose materials. Higher aspect ratio cellulose nanofibers produced by mechanical homogenization were, in some cases, more toxic than other cellulose-based nanofibers or nanocrystals produced by chemical synthesis methods. Using fluorescently labeled nanocellulose we were able to show that nanocellulose uptake did occur in embryonic zebrafish during development. We conclude that the benign nature of nanocellulose materials makes them an ideal platform to systematically investigate the inherent surface features driving nanomaterial toxicity in order to create safer design principles for engineered nanoparticles. © 2016 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht |
Challenges to global pandemic mortality estimation
Widdowson MA , Iuliano AD , Dawood FS . Lancet Infect Dis 2014 14 (8) 670-2 In May 2012, we published estimates of global mortality associated with influenza A H1N1 pandemic 2009 (H1N1pdm09) virus infection during the first year of virus circulation in each country.1 In November, 2013, Simonsen and colleagues2 also presented estimates of global H1N1pdm09-associated mortality during April, 2009, to December, 2009. Although different methods were used, the two studies reached reassuringly similar conclusions. We estimated 201 000 respiratory deaths, and Simonsen and colleagues estimated 188 000 respiratory deaths; most estimated deaths in both studies were in people younger than 65 years; and in four of the six WHO regions (European, Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asian, and Western Pacific), the confidence limits of each study's point estimate overlap substantially. Although both studies estimated H1N1pdm09-associated deaths due to respiratory causes, our study also estimated deaths due to cardiovascular causes, which precludes direct comparison of the total mortality estimates from each study (table). |
Transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to define endpoints for lymphatic filariasis mass drug administration: a multicenter evaluation
Chu BK , Deming M , Biritwum NK , Bougma WR , Dorkenoo AM , El-Setouhy M , Fischer PU , Gass K , Gonzalez de Pena M , Mercado-Hernandez L , Kyelem D , Lammie PJ , Flueckiger RM , Mwingira UJ , Noordin R , Offei Owusu I , Ottesen EA , Pavluck A , Pilotte N , Rao RU , Samarasekera D , Schmaedick MA , Settinayake S , Simonsen PE , Supali T , Taleo F , Torres M , Weil GJ , Won KY . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2013 7 (12) e2584 BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is targeted for global elimination through treatment of entire at-risk populations with repeated annual mass drug administration (MDA). Essential for program success is defining and confirming the appropriate endpoint for MDA when transmission is presumed to have reached a level low enough that it cannot be sustained even in the absence of drug intervention. Guidelines advanced by WHO call for a transmission assessment survey (TAS) to determine if MDA can be stopped within an LF evaluation unit (EU) after at least five effective rounds of annual treatment. To test the value and practicality of these guidelines, a multicenter operational research trial was undertaken in 11 countries covering various geographic and epidemiological settings. METHODOLOGY: The TAS was conducted twice in each EU with TAS-1 and TAS-2 approximately 24 months apart. Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) formed the basis of the TAS survey design but specific EU characteristics defined the survey site (school or community), eligible population (6-7 year olds or 1(st)-2(nd) graders), survey type (systematic or cluster-sampling), target sample size, and critical cutoff (a statistically powered threshold below which transmission is expected to be no longer sustainable). The primary diagnostic tools were the immunochromatographic (ICT) test for W. bancrofti EUs and the BmR1 test (Brugia Rapid or PanLF) for Brugia spp. EUs. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS/CONCLUSIONS: In 10 of 11 EUs, the number of TAS-1 positive cases was below the critical cutoff, indicating that MDA could be stopped. The same results were found in the follow-up TAS-2, therefore, confirming the previous decision outcome. Sample sizes were highly sex and age-representative and closely matched the target value after factoring in estimates of non-participation. The TAS was determined to be a practical and effective evaluation tool for stopping MDA although its validity for longer-term post-MDA surveillance requires further investigation. |
Influenza-related mortality among adults aged 25-54 years with AIDS in South Africa and the United States of America
Cohen C , Simonsen L , Sample J , Kang JW , Miller M , Madhi SA , Campsmith M , Viboud C . Clin Infect Dis 2012 55 (7) 996-1003 BACKGROUND: Data are limited on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated influenza burden in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We compared influenza-related mortality in adults with AIDS in South Africa and the United States in the pre-HAART era and evaluated mortality trends after HAART introduction in the United States. METHODS: Monthly all-cause and pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality rates were compiled for adults with AIDS aged 25-54 years in South Africa (1998-2005) and the United States (pre-HAART era, 1987-1994; HAART era, 1997-2005). We estimated influenza-related deaths as excess mortality above a model baseline during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza-related mortality rates in adults with AIDS were compared with rates for age peers in the general population and adults ≥65 years old. RESULTS: In the United States before HAART, influenza-related mortality rates in adults with AIDS were 150 (95% confidence interval [CI], 49-460) and 208 (95% CI, 74-583) times greater than in the general population for all-cause and P&I deaths, respectively, and 2.5 (95% CI, 0.9-7.2) and 4.1 (95% CI, 1.4-13) times higher than in elderly adults. After HAART introduction , influenza-related mortality in adults with AIDS dropped 3-6-fold but remained elevated compared with the general population (all-cause relative risk [RR], 44 [95% CI, 16-121]); P&I RR, 73 [95% CI, 47-113]). Influenza-related mortality in South African adults with AIDS in recent years was similar to that in the United States in the pre-HAART era. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with AIDS experience substantially elevated influenza-associated mortality, which declines with widespread HAART introduction but does not disappear. These data support increased access to HAART and influenza vaccination for HIV-infected adults. |
Antigenemia, RNAemia, and innate immunity in children with acute rotavirus diarrhea
Moon S , Wang Y , Dennehy P , Simonsen KA , Zhang J , Jiang B . FEMS Immunol Med Microbiol 2011 64 (3) 382-91 Antigenemia is commonly detected in children with acute rotavirus diarrhea, but the prevalence of viremia has not been clearly defined. We examined antigenemia in plasma and RNAemia in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of children with acute diarrhea by EIA, RT-PCR, and Southern hybridization, using primers and a probe specific to rotavirus NSP4 gene. We detected the presence of rotavirus antigen in 33.3% and almost full-length NSP4 gene in 70.8% of the acute-phase plasma and PBMC, respectively. In contrast, antigenemia and RNAemia were detected in 0% and 4.2% of the convalescent-phase plasma and PBMC, respectively, which were similar to antigenemia (0%) and RNAemia (7.7%) in healthy controls. We demonstrated an increase in the proportions of activated mDC and activated pDC in acute-phase PBMC of patients when compared to those in convalescent-phase of patients and in PBMC of healthy controls. The activation of mDC peaked on days 2 to 4 after illness onset and the activation of acute-phase pDC appeared to correlate with levels of antigenemia. High prevalence of NSP4 gene in acute-phase PBMC indicates possible rotavirus replication in white blood cells and extraintestinal spread and the activation of DC may have implications for the prevention of rotavirus disease in children. |
Reduction in gastroenteritis in United States children and correlation with early rotavirus vaccine uptake from national medical claims databases
Cortese MM , Tate JE , Simonsen L , Edelman L , Parashar UD . Pediatr Infect Dis J 2010 29 (6) 489-94 BACKGROUND: We sought to estimate rotavirus disease reduction among children in hospital and office settings in the 4 US regions following rotavirus vaccine introduction and to estimate vaccine uptake. METHODS: Two national third-party payer medical claims databases were used to examine the number of visits for gastroenteritis per annual nongastroenteritis visits among children aged <5 years during July 2003 to June 2008 in hospital and office settings. The gastroenteritis burden attributable to rotavirus was computed as the excess of all gastroenteritis visits during rotavirus seasons above the baseline of visits during nonrotavirus periods. Rotavirus vaccine uptake was estimated by comparing claims for rotavirus vaccine with those for diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccines. RESULTS: In the South, Northeast, and Midwest, the typical winter-spring gastroenteritis peak due to rotavirus was markedly dampened in 2007-2008. Compared with the mean for 3 prevaccine seasons, the excess gastroenteritis visits that occurred during the 2007-2008 rotavirus season was reduced by >90% among infants in all care settings in 3 regions and by >70% among children aged 1 to 4 years. In the West, disease reductions were lower (53%-63% reduction among hospitalized infants). At the onset of the 2007-2008 season, coverage with ≥1 rotavirus vaccine dose was an estimated 57% among infants, 17% among children aged 1 year, and 0 among those aged 2 to 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: The rotavirus burden in 2007-2008 was markedly reduced in all US regions and exceeded that explained by only direct protection of the youngest vaccinated children. |
Preventing dental caries through school-based sealant programs: updated recommendations and reviews of evidence
Gooch BF , Griffin SO , Gray SK , Kohn WG , Rozier RG , Siegal M , Fontana M , Brunson D , Carter N , Curtis DK , Donly KJ , Haering H , Hill LF , Hinson HP , Kumar J , Lampiris L , Mallatt M , Meyer DM , Miller WR , Sanzi-Schaedel SM , Simonsen R , Truman BI , Zero DT . J Am Dent Assoc 2009 140 (11) 1356-65 BACKGROUND: School-based sealant programs (SBSPs) increase sealant use and reduce caries. Programs target schools that serve children from low-income families and focus on sealing newly erupted permanent molars. In 2004 and 2005, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, sponsored meetings of an expert work group to update recommendations for sealant use in SBSPs on the basis of available evidence regarding the effectiveness of sealants on sound and carious pit and fissure surfaces, caries assessment and selected sealant placement techniques, and the risk of caries' developing in sealed teeth among children who might be lost to follow-up. The work group also identified topics for which additional evidence review was needed. TYPES OF STUDIES REVIEWED: The work group used systematic reviews when available. Since 2005, staff members at CDC and subject-matter experts conducted several independent analyses of topics for which no reviews existed. These reviews include a systematic review of the effectiveness of sealants in managing caries. RESULTS: The evidence supports recommendations to seal sound surfaces and noncavitated lesions, to use visual assessment to detect surface cavitation, to use a toothbrush or handpiece prophylaxis to clean tooth surfaces, and to provide sealants to children even if follow-up cannot be ensured. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: These recommendations are consistent with the current state of the science and provide appropriate guidance for sealant use in SBSPs. This report also may increase practitioners' awareness of the SBSP as an important and effective public health approach that complements clinical care. |
Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics
Pitzer VE , Viboud C , Simonsen L , Steiner C , Panozzo CA , Alonso WJ , Miller MA , Glass RI , Glasser JW , Parashar UD , Grenfell BT . Science 2009 325 (5938) 290-4 Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination. |
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