INTRODUCTION: in 2016, a switch from trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) (containing serotypes 1,2,3) to bivalent OPV (types 1,3) was implemented globally. We assessed the seroprevalence of poliovirus antibody levels in selected Nigerian states, before and after the switch, documented poliovirus type2 outbreak responses conducted and ascertained factors associated with immunity gaps based on seroprevalence rates. METHODS: we conducted a secondary analysis of stored serum samples from the 2018 Nigeria National HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey. Serum from 1,185 children aged 0-119 months residing in one southern and four northern states were tested for serotype-specific PV neutralizing antibodies; seropositivity was a reciprocal titer ≥8. We conducted regression analysis to determine sociodemographic risk factors associated with low seroprevalence using SAS 9.4. RESULTS: children aged 24-119 months (pre-switch cohort) had seroprevalence against PV1, PV2, and PV3, of 97.3% (95% CI:96.4-98.2), 93.8% (95% CI:92.2-95.5), and 91.3% (95% CI:89.2-93.4), while children aged <24 months (post-switch) had seroprevalence of 86.0% (95% CI:81.2-90.8), 55.6% (95% CI: 47.7-63.4), and 77.2% (95% CI:71.0-83.4) respectively. Regression analysis showed age <24 months was associated with lower seroprevalence against all PV serotypes, (p<0.0001); females had lower seroprevalence against PV1 (p=0.0184) and PV2 (p=0.0354); northern states lower seroprevalence against PV1 (p=0.0039), while well-water source lower seroprevalence against PV3 (p=0.0288). CONCLUSION: this study showed high seroprevalence rates against PV 1, 2, and 3 in pre-switch children (aged 24-119 months). However, post-switch children (<24 months) had low immunity against PV2 despite outbreak responses. Strategies to increase routine immunization coverage and high-quality polio campaigns can increase immunity against polio virus.

The Nigeria Polio Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) was established in October 2012 to strengthen coordination, provide strategic direction based on real-time data analysis, and manage all operational aspects of the polio eradication program. The establishment of seven state-level polio EOCs followed. With success achieved in the interruption of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission as certified in 2020, the future direction of the polio EOC is under consideration. This paper describes the role of the polio EOC in other emergencies and perspectives on future disease control initiatives. A description of the functionality and operations of the polio EOC and a review of documentation of non-polio activities supported by the EOC was done. Key informant insights of national and state-level stakeholders were collected through an electronic questionnaire to determine their perspectives on the polio EOC's contributions and its future role in other public health interventions. The polio EOC structure is based on an incident management system with clear terms of reference and accountability and with full partner coordination. A decline in WPV1 cases was observed from 122 cases in 2012 to 0 in 2015; previously undetected transmission of WPV1 was confirmed in 2016 and all transmission was interrupted under the coordination of the EOCs at national and state levels. During 2014-2019, the polio EOC infrastructure and staff expertise were used to investigate and respond to outbreaks of Ebola, measles, yellow fever, and meningitis and to oversee maternal and neonatal tetanus elimination campaigns. The EOC structure at the national and state levels has contributed to the positive achievements in the polio eradication program in Nigeria and further in the coordination of other disease control and emergency response activities. The transition of the polio EOCs and their capacities to support other non-polio programs will contribute to harnessing the country's capacity for effective coordination of public health initiatives and disease outbreaks.

From May 2022 through the end of January 2023, approximately 30,000 cases of monkeypox (mpox) have been reported in the United States and >86,000 cases reported internationally.* JYNNEOS (Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine, Bavarian Nordic) is recommended for subcutaneous administration to persons at increased risk for mpox (1,2) and has been demonstrated to provide protection against infection (3-5). To increase the total number of vaccine doses available, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) on August 9, 2022, recommending administration of the vaccine intradermally (0.1 mL per dose) for persons aged ≥18 years who are recommended to receive it (6); intradermal administration can generate an equivalent immune response to that achieved through subcutaneous injection using approximately one fifth the subcutaneous dose (7). CDC analyzed JYNNEOS vaccine administration data submitted to CDC from jurisdictional immunization information systems (IIS)(†) to assess the impact of the EUA and to estimate vaccination coverage among the population at risk for mpox. During May 22, 2022-January 31, 2023, a total of 1,189,651 JYNNEOS doses (734,510 first doses and 452,884 second doses)(§) were administered. Through the week of August 20, 2022, the predominant route of administration was subcutaneous, after which intradermal administration became predominant, in accordance with FDA guidance. As of January 31, 2023, 1-dose and 2-dose (full vaccination) coverage among persons at risk for mpox is estimated to have reached 36.7% and 22.7%, respectively. Despite a steady decline in mpox cases from a 7-day daily average of more than 400 cases on August 1, 2022, to five cases on January 31, 2023, vaccination for persons at risk for mpox continues to be recommended (1). Targeted outreach and continued access to and availability of mpox vaccines to persons at risk are important to help prevent and minimize the impact of a resurgence of mpox.

Practitioners in health departments, university extension programs, and nonprofit organizations working in public health face varied challenges to publishing in the peer-reviewed literature. These practitioners may lack time, support, skills, and efficacy needed for manuscript submission, which keeps them from sharing their wisdom and experience-based evidence. This exclusion can contribute to literature gaps, a failure of evidence-based practice to inform future research, reduced ability to educate partners, and delays in advancing public health practice. Our article describes the writing workshops offered to Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity (DNPAO), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded programs in 2021. This project consisted of three 60-minute introductory writing webinars open to all recipients, followed by a Writing for Publications workshop, an 8- to 9-week virtual learning/writing intensive for selected writing team applicants. The Society for Public Health Education staff, consultants, and CDC/DNPAO staff developed, refined, and presented the curriculum. The workshop for public health practitioner writing teams was offered to two cohorts and included extensive coaching and focused on potential submission to a Health Promotion Practice supplement, "Reducing Chronic Disease through Physical Activity and Nutrition: Public Health Practice in the Field" (see Supplemental Material), which was supported by CDC/DNPAO. We describe the webinars, the workshop design, modifications, evaluation methods and results.

IMPORTANCE: Steps per day is a meaningful metric for physical activity promotion in clinical and population settings. To guide promotion strategies of step goals, it is important to understand the association of steps with clinical end points, including mortality. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association of steps per day with premature (age 41-65 years) all-cause mortality among Black and White men and women. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective cohort study was part of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study. Participants were aged 38 to 50 years and wore an accelerometer from 2005 to 2006. Participants were followed for a mean (SD) of 10.8 (0.9) years. Data were analyzed in 2020 and 2021. EXPOSURE: Daily steps volume, classified as low (<7000 steps/d), moderate (7000-9999 steps/d), and high (≥10 000 steps/d) and stepping intensity, classified as peak 30-minute stepping rate and time spent at 100 steps/min or more. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 2110 participants from the CARDIA study were included, with a mean (SD) age of 45.2 (3.6) years, 1205 (57.1%) women, 888 (42.1%) Black participants, and a median (interquartile range [IQR]) of 9146 (7307-11 162) steps/d. During 22 845 person years of follow-up, 72 participants (3.4%) died. Using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, compared with participants in the low step group, there was significantly lower risk of mortality in the moderate (hazard ratio [HR], 0.28 [95% CI, 0.15-0.54]; risk difference [RD], 53 [95% CI, 27-78] events per 1000 people) and high (HR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.25-0.81]; RD, 41 [95% CI, 15-68] events per 1000 people) step groups. Compared with the low step group, moderate/high step rate was associated with reduced risk of mortality in Black participants (HR, 0.30 [95% CI, 0.14-0.63]) and in White participants (HR, 0.37 [95% CI, 0.17-0.81]). Similarly, compared with the low step group, moderate/high step rate was associated with reduce risk of mortality in women (HR, 0.28 [95% CI, 0.12-0.63]) and men (HR, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.20-0.88]). There was no significant association between peak 30-minute intensity (lowest vs highest tertile: HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.54-1.77]) or time at 100 steps/min or more (lowest vs highest tertile: HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 0.73-2.61]) with risk of mortality. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This cohort study found that among Black and White men and women in middle adulthood, participants who took approximately 7000 steps/d or more experienced lower mortality rates compared with participants taking fewer than 7000 steps/d. There was no association of step intensity with mortality.

Currently, the whole world is facing a COVID-19 pandemic. As of now, approximately 0.15 million people around the globe are infected with the novel coronavirus. In the last decade, two strains of the coronavirus family, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV also resulted in epidemics in south Asian and the Middle Eastern countries with high mortality rate. This scenario demands the development of a putative vaccine which may provide immunity against all current and new evolving coronavirus strains. In this study, we design an epitope-based vaccine using an immunoinformatic approach. This vaccine may protect against all coronavirus strains. The vaccine is developed by considering the geographical distribution of coronavirus strains and host genetics (Chinese population). Nine experimentally validated epitopes sequences from coronavirus strains were used to derive the variants considering the conservancy in all strains. Further, the binding affinities of all derived variants were checked with most abundant HLA alleles in the Chinese population. Three MHC class-I epitopes from Spike glycoprotein and Nucleoprotein showed sufficient binding while one MHC class-II epitope from Spike glycoprotein found to be an effective binder. A cocktail of these epitopes gave more than 95% population coverage in the Chinese population. Moreover, MD simulation also supported the above-mentioned predictions. Further, in vivo studies are needed to confirm the immunogenic potential of these vaccines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

BACKGROUND: More than 700,000 ethnic Rohingya have crossed the border from Rakhine State, Myanmar to Cox's Bazar District, Bangladesh, following escalated violence by Myanmar security forces. The majority of these displaced Rohingya settled in informal sites on previously forested land, in areas without basic infrastructure or access to services. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Three cross-sectional population-representative cluster surveys were conducted, including all informal settlements of Rohingya refugees in the Ukhia and Teknaf Upazilas of Cox's Bazar District. The first survey was conducted during the acute phase of the humanitarian response (October-November 2017), and the second and third surveys were conducted 6 (April-May 2018) and 12 (October-November 2018) months later. Anthropometric indices (weight, height, mid-upper arm circumference [MUAC], oedema) and haemoglobin (Hb) were measured in children aged 6-59 months following standard procedures. Final samples for survey rounds 1, 2, and 3 (R1, R2, and R3) included 1,113, 628, and 683 children, respectively, of which approximately half were male (50.7%-53.5% per round) and a third were 6-23 months of age (32.4%-33.3% per round). Prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) as assessed by weight for height in R2 (12.1%, 95% CI: 9.6-15.1) and R3 (11.0%, 95% CI: 8.4-14.2) represent a significant decline from the observed prevalence in R1 (19.4%, 95% CI: 16.8-22.3) (p < 0.001 for both comparisons). Overall, the prevalence of anaemia significantly declined (p < 0.001) between the first 2 rounds (47.9%, 95% CI: 44.1-51.7 and 32.3%, 95% CI: 27.8-37.1, respectively); prevalence increased significantly (p = 0.04) to 39.8% (95% CI, 34.1-45.4) during R3 but remained below R1 levels. Reported receipt of both fortified blended foods (12.8%) and micronutrient powders (10.3%) were low during R1 but increased significantly (p < 0.001 for both) within the first 6 months to 49.8% and 29.9%, respectively. Although findings demonstrate improvement in anthropometric indicators during a period in which nutrition programme coverage increased, causation cannot be determined from the cross-sectional design. CONCLUSIONS: These data document significant improvements in both acute and micronutrient malnutrition among Rohingya children in makeshift settlements. These declines coincide with a scaleup of services aimed at prevention and treatment of malnutrition. Ongoing activities to improve access to nutritional services may facilitate further reductions in malnutrition levels to sustained below-crisis levels.

The number of wild poliovirus (WPV) cases in Nigeria decreased from 1,122 in 2006 to six WPV type 1 (WPV1) in 2014 (1). During August 2014-July 2016, no WPV cases were detected; during August-September 2016, four cases were reported in Borno State. An insurgency in northeastern Nigeria had resulted in 468,800 children aged <5 years deprived of health services in Borno by 2016. Military activities in mid-2016 freed isolated families to travel to camps, where the four WPV1 cases were detected. Oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) campaigns were intensified during August 2016-December 2017; since October 2016, no WPV has been detected (2). Vaccination activities in insurgent-held areas are conducted by security forces; however, 60,000 unvaccinated children remain in unreached settlements. Since 2018, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) has emerged and spread from Nigeria to Niger and Cameroon; outbreak responses to date have not interrupted transmission. This report describes progress in Nigeria polio eradication activities during January 2018-May 2019 and updates the previous report (2). Interruption of cVDPV2 transmission in Nigeria will need increased efforts to improve campaign quality and include insurgent-held areas. Progress in surveillance and immunization activities will continue to be reviewed, potentially allowing certification of interruption of WPV transmission in Africa in 2020.

This paper investigates different approaches for causal estimation under multiple concurrent medications. Our parameter of interest is the marginal mean counterfactual outcome under different combinations of medications. We explore parametric and non-parametric methods to estimate the generalized propensity score. We then apply three causal estimation approaches (inverse probability of treatment weighting, propensity score adjustment, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation) to estimate the causal parameter of interest. Focusing on the estimation of the expected outcome under the most prevalent regimens, we compare the results obtained using these methods in a simulation study with four potentially concurrent medications. We perform a second simulation study in which some combinations of medications may occur rarely or not occur at all in the dataset. Finally, we apply the methods explored to contrast the probability of patient treatment success for the most prevalent regimens of antimicrobial agents for patients with multidrug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis.

Missing covariates often occur in biomedical studies with survival outcomes. Multiple imputation via chained equations (MICE) is a semi-parametric and flexible approach that imputes multivariate data by a series of conditional models, one for each incomplete variable. When applying MICE, practitioners tend to specify the conditional models in a simple fashion largely dictated by the software, which could lead to suboptimal results. Practical guidelines for specifying appropriate conditional models in MICE are lacking. Motivated by a study of time to hip fractures in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study using accelerated failure time models, we propose and experiment with some rationales leading to appropriate MICE specifications. This strategy starts with specifying a joint model for the variables involved. We first derive the conditional distribution of each variable under the joint model, then approximate these conditional distributions to the extent which can be characterized by commonly used regression models. We propose to fit separate models to impute incomplete variables by the failure status, which is key to generating appropriate MICE specifications for survival outcomes. The proposed strategy can be conveniently implemented with all available imputation software that uses fully conditional specifications. Our simulation results show that some commonly used simple MICE specifications can produce suboptimal results, while those based on the proposed strategy appear to perform well and be robust toward model misspecifications. Hence, we warn against a mechanical use of MICE and suggest careful modeling of the conditional distributions of variables to ensure proper performance.

Nearly three decades after the World Health Assembly launched the Global Polio Eradication Initiative in 1988, four of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions have been certified polio-free (1). Nigeria is one of three countries, including Pakistan and Afghanistan, where wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission has never been interrupted. In September 2015, after >1 year without any reported WPV cases, Nigeria was removed from WHO's list of countries with endemic WPV transmission (2); however, during August and September 2016, four type 1 WPV (WPV1) cases were reported from Borno State, a state in northeastern Nigeria experiencing a violent insurgency (3). The Nigerian government, in collaboration with partners, launched a large-scale coordinated response to the outbreak (3). This report describes progress in polio eradication activities in Nigeria during January-December 2017 and updates previous reports (3-5). No WPV cases have been reported in Nigeria since September 2016; the latest case had onset of paralysis on August 21, 2016 (3). However, polio surveillance has not been feasible in insurgent-controlled areas of Borno State. Implementation of new strategies has helped mitigate the challenges of reaching and vaccinating children living in security-compromised areas, and other strategies are planned. Despite these initiatives, however, approximately 130,000-210,000 (28%-45%) of the estimated 469,000 eligible children living in inaccessible areas in 2016 have not been vaccinated. Sustained efforts to optimize surveillance and improve immunization coverage, especially among children in inaccessible areas, are needed.

Nine polio areas of expertise were applied to broader immunization and mother, newborn and child health goals in ten focus countries of the Polio Eradication Endgame Strategic Plan: policy & strategy development, planning, management and oversight (accountability framework), implementation & service delivery, monitoring, communications & community engagement, disease surveillance & data analysis, technical quality & capacity building, and partnerships. Although coverage improvements depend on multiple factors and increased coverage cannot be attributed to the use of polio assets alone, 6 out of the 10 focus countries improved coverage in three doses of diphtheria tetanus pertussis containing vaccine between 2013 and 2015. Government leadership, evidence-based programming, country-driven comprehensive operational annual plans, community partnership and strong accountability systems are critical for all programs and polio eradication has illustrated these can be leveraged to increase immunization coverage and equity and enhance global health security in the focus countries.

On August 10, 2016, 2 years after the most recent wild poliovirus (WPV) case was reported in Nigeria (in July 2014), two WPV cases were reported in the northeastern state of Borno, which has been severely affected by insurgency-related insecurity since 2013. On September 9 and 26, 2016, two additional WPV cases were reported in Borno in children whose families migrated from security-compromised, inaccessible areas of the state. All four cases were WPV serotype 1 (WPV1), with genetic differences indicating prolonged undetected transmission. A large-scale emergency response plan was developed and implemented. The plan initially called for vaccination of 815,791 children during August 15-18 in five local government areas (LGAs) in the immediate vicinity of the first two WPV cases. Subsequently, the plan was expanded to regionally synchronized supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), conducted during August 27-December 6 in five Lake Chad basin countries at increased risk for national and regional WPV1 transmission (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria). In addition, retrospective searches for missed cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), enhanced environmental surveillance for polioviruses, and polio surveillance system reviews were conducted. Prolonged undetected WPV1 transmission in Borno State is a consequence of low population immunity and severe surveillance limitations associated with insurgency-related insecurity and highlights the risk for local and international WPV spread. Increasing polio vaccination coverage and implementing high-quality polio surveillance, especially among populations in newly secured and difficult-to-access areas in Borno and other Lake Chad basin areas are urgently needed.