BACKGROUND: Experimental studies have shown associations between gestational phthalate exposure and behavioral problems among offspring; however, epidemiological evidence is still mixed. This study aims to investigate whether gestational phthalate exposure is associated with behavioral problems in preschool-aged children. METHODS: Participants include 178 mother-child pairs from MARBLES (Markers of Autism Risk in Babies - Learning Early Signs), a cohort with high familial likelihood of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We quantified 14 phthalate metabolites in multiple maternal urine samples collected during the 2nd and 3rd trimesters. Preschool behavior problems were assessed using the Child Behavioral Checklist (CBCL), a standardized instrument for evaluating behavior problems of children aged 1.5-5 years. To examine associations of CBCL scores with both individual phthalate biomarker concentrations and their mixture, we used negative binomial regression and weighted quantile sum regression. RESULTS: Overall, maternal phthalate biomarker concentrations were not associated with child behavior problems. Monoisobutyl phthalate (MiBP) concentrations were inversely associated with child anxious/depressed symptoms and somatic complaints. Mono-hydroxy-isobutyl phthalate (MHiBP) and monobenzyl phthalate (MBzP) were also inversely associated with somatic complaints. When assessing trimester-specific associations, more behavior problems were associated with the 2nd trimester biomarker concentrations: mono(3-carboxypropyl) phthalate (MCPP) and monocarboxyisononyl phthalate (MCNP) were positively associated with somatic complaints. All associations became non-significant after false discovery rate correction. No association between a mixture of phthalates and CBCL scores was found. CONCLUSIONS: Our study observed no clear evidence of gestational phthalate exposure on child behavior problems. However, our findings based on the biomonitoring assessment of multiple samples per participant could improve our understanding of gestational phthalate exposure in association with behavior problems in preschool-aged children.

BACKGROUND: Drinking water at US Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, was contaminated with trichloroethylene and other industrial solvents from 1953 to 1985. METHODS: A cohort cancer incidence study was conducted of Marines/Navy personnel who began service and were stationed at Camp Lejeune (N = 154,821) or Camp Pendleton, California (N = 163,484) between 1975 and 1985 and civilian workers employed at Camp Lejeune (N = 6,494) or Camp Pendleton (N = 5,797) between October 1972 and December 1985. Camp Pendleton's drinking water was not contaminated with industrial solvents. Individual-level information on primary invasive cancers and in situ bladder cancer diagnosed between 1996 and 2017 was obtained from 54 US cancer registries. Proportional hazards regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) comparing cancer incidence between the Camp Lejeune and Camp Pendleton cohorts, adjusted for sex, race, education, and rank (or blue-collar work), with age as the time variable. Precision of aHRs was evaluated using the 95% confidence interval (CI) ratio (CIR). RESULTS: Cancers among Camp Lejeune Marines/Navy personnel and civilian workers totaled 12,083 and 1,563, respectively. Cancers among Camp Pendleton Marines/Navy personnel and civilian workers totaled 12,144 and 1,416, respectively. Compared with Camp Pendleton, Camp Lejeune Marines/Navy personnel had aHRs  ≥ 1.20 with CIRs  ≤ 3 for all myeloid cancers (HR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.49), acute myeloid leukemia (HR = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.85), myelodysplastic and myeloproliferative syndromes (HR = 1.68; 95% CI: 1.07, 2.62), polycythemia vera (HR = 1.41; 95% CI: 0.94, 2.11), and cancers of the esophagus (HR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.56), larynx (HR = 1.21; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.50), soft tissue (HR = 1.21; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.59), and thyroid (HR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.45). Lymphoma subtypes mantle cell and marginal zone B-cell and lung cancer subtypes adenocarcinoma and non-small cell lung cancer also had aHRs  ≥ 1.20 with CIRs  ≤ 3. Compared with Camp Pendleton, Camp Lejeune civilian workers had aHRs  ≥ 1.20 with CIRs  ≤ 3 for all myeloid cancers (HR = 1.40; 95% CI: 0.83, 2.36), squamous cell lung cancer (HR = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.41), and female breast (HR = 1.21; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.52) and ductal cancer (HR = 1.32; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.71). CONCLUSION: Increased risks of several cancers were observed among Marines/Navy personnel and civilian workers exposed to contaminated drinking water at Camp Lejeune compared with Camp Pendleton. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14966.

INTRODUCTION: Exposure to unfavorable environmental conditions during pregnancy, such as extreme heat and air pollution, has been linked to increased risk of stillbirth, defined as fetal mortality at or after 20 weeks' gestation, however no studies have examined its association with social vulnerability. We examined associations between county-level stillbirth rates, environmental risk factors for stillbirth, and social vulnerability in the United States. METHODS: This ecologic study linked county-level data from three nationwide datasets on stillbirths (National Vital Statistics System), environmental conditions (North American Land Data Assimilation System and Environmental Protection Agency), and social vulnerability (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry Social Vulnerability Index). Poisson and negative binomial models were fit to the variables and produced rate ratios to estimate associations among stillbirth rates, environmental risk factors, and social vulnerability. RESULTS: Social vulnerability was positively associated withn stillbirth rates, annual average number of extreme heat days, and ambient concentration of particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5). The average number of days that ozone and PM2.5 each exceeded regulatory standards were not associated with stillbirth rates or social vulnerability. A positive association between average annual PM2.5 concentration and stillbirth rates was detected; no other significant associations between environmental risk factors and stillbirth rates were observed. DISCUSSION: We found evidence of associations between social vulnerability and stillbirth rates, and between social vulnerability and environmental risk factors for stillbirth at the county level. Further research could inform understanding of how social vulnerability impacts the relationship between environmental exposures and stillbirth risk.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Wastewater surveillance is a valuable tool that can be used to track infectious diseases in a community. In September 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) established the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) to coordinate and build the nation's capacity to detect and quantify concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in U.S. wastewater. This is the first surveillance summary of NWSS, covering September 1, 2020 to December 31, 2022. Through partnerships with state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments, NWSS became a national surveillance platform that can be readily expanded and adapted to meet changing public health needs. Beginning with 209 sampling sites in September 2020, NWSS rapidly expanded to >1500 sites by December 2022, covering ≈47 % of the U.S. population. As of December 2022, >152,000 unique wastewater samples have been collected by NWSS partners, primarily from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). WWTPs participating in NWSS tend to be larger than the average U.S. WWTP and serve more populated communities. In December 2022, ≈8 % of the nearly 16,000 U.S. WWTPs were participating in NWSS. NWSS partners used a variety of methods for sampling and testing wastewater samples; however, progress is being made to standardize these methods. In July 2021, NWSS partners started submitting SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing data to NWSS. In October 2022, NWSS expanded to monkeypox virus testing, with plans to include additional infectious disease targets in the future. Through the rapid implementation and expansion of NWSS, important lessons have been learned. Wastewater surveillance programs should consider both surge and long-term capacities when developing an implementation plan, and early standardization of sampling and testing methods is important to facilitate data comparisons across sites. NWSS has proven to be a flexible and sustainable surveillance system that will continue to be a useful complement to case-based surveillance for guiding public health action.

Young children may experience higher per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure than adults due to breastfeeding, higher dust ingestion rates, and frequent hand-to-mouth activities. We explored temporal trends and determinants of child serum PFAS concentrations and their correlations with paired maternal PFAS concentrations. From 2009 to 2017, we collected one blood sample from each of 541 children aged 2-5 years participating in the Childhood Autism Risks from Genetics and Environment (CHARGE) study and quantified 14 PFAS in serum. For nine frequently detected PFAS (>65% of samples), we performed multiple regression adjusting for potential determinants to estimate mean percent concentration changes. For a subset of 327 children, we also quantified nine PFAS in their mother's serum collected at the same visit and computed Spearman correlation coefficients (r(sp)) between maternal and child PFAS concentrations. During 2009-2017, child serum concentrations of all nine PFAS decreased by 6-25% annually. Several PFAS concentrations were higher among non-Hispanic white children and those with highly educated parents. Most maternal and child PFAS concentrations were moderately correlated (r(sp) = 0.13-0.39), with a strong correlation for N-methyl perfluorooctane sulfonamido acetic acid (r(sp) = 0.68). Breastfeeding duration appeared to contribute to higher child and lower maternal PFAS concentrations, resulting in relatively weak correlations between maternal and child PFAS concentrations for samples collected in early childhood. Considering that more than half of our study children had neurodevelopmental concerns, the generalizability of our findings might be limited.

Multiple imputation (MI) is a widely used approach to address missing data issues in surveys. Variables included in MI can have various distributional forms with different degrees of missingness. However, when variables with missing data contain skip patterns (i.e. questions not applicable to some survey participants are thus skipped), implementation of MI may not be straightforward. In this research, we compare two approaches for MI when skip-pattern covariates with missing values exist. One approach imputes missing values in the skip-pattern variables only among applicable subjects (denoted as imputation among applicable cases (IAAC)). The second approach imputes skip-pattern covariates among all subjects while using different recoding methods on the skip-pattern variables (denoted as imputation with recoded non-applicable cases (IWRNC)). A simulation study is conducted to compare these methods. Both approaches are applied to the 2015 and 2016 Research and Development Survey data from the National Center for Health Statistics. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Early detection of pulmonary responses to silica aerosol exposure, such as lung inflammation as well as early identification of silicosis initiation, is of great importance in disease prevention of workers. In this study, to early screen the health condition of the workers who are exposed to respirable silica dusts, an immunoassay lab on a chip (LOC) was designed, developed and fully characterized for analyzing Clara cell protein 16 (CC16) in serum which has been considered as one of the potential biomarkers of lung inflammation or lung damage due to the respirable silica dusts. Sandwich immunoassay of CC16 was performed on the LOC developed with a custom-designed portable analyzer using artificial serums spiked with CC16 protein first and then human serums obtained from the coal mine workers exposed to the respirable silica-containing dusts. The dynamic range of CC16 assay performed on the LOC was in a range of 0.625–20 ng/mL, and the achieved limit of detection (LOD) was around 0.35 ng/mL. The assay results of CC16 achieved from both the developed LOC and the conventional 96 well plate showed a reasonable corelation. The correlation between the conventional reader and the developed portable analyzer was found to be reasonable, resulting in R 2 ~ 0.93. This study shows that the LOC developed for the early detection of CC16 can be potentially applied for the development of a field-deployable point-of-care testing (POCT) for the early monitoring of the field workers who are exposed to silica aerosol. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

Patients with inborn errors of immunity (IEI) may develop granulomas in multiple organ systems including the skin. Vaccine strain rubella virus (RuV), part of the live attenuated measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, has been identified within these granulomas. RuV is typically found in macrophages; however, recently neutrophils have been identified as a novel cell type infected. Here, we present a case of RuV-associated cutaneous granuloma with RuV localized to neutrophils. A 46-year-old female with common variable immunodeficiency presented with verrucous papules and crusted plaques from the right knee to the distal shin of 20 years duration, associated with prior physical trauma. Biopsy specimen showed palisaded granulomas surrounding central necrosis with scattered aggregates of neutrophils. Vaccine-derived RuV was detected by molecular sequencing in lesional skin. Fluorescent immunohistochemistry with CD206, myeloperoxidase (MPO), and RV capsid (RVC) antibodies demonstrated that RuV localized to neutrophils but not macrophages. The clinical presentation, cutaneous findings, and likely presence of RVC-positive granulocytes in bone marrow provide potential support to the evolving hypothesis of persistent RuV within neutrophils contributing to chronic granulomatous inflammation in a milieu of immune dysregulation.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC? The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT? Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE? Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen.

Introduction. Combining genomic and geospatial data can be useful for understanding Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in high tuberculosis burden settings. Methods. We performed whole genome sequencing (WGS) on Mtb DNA extracted from sputum cultures from a population-based tuberculosis study conducted in 2012-2016 in Gaborone, Botswana. We used kernel density estimation, spatial K-functions, and created spatial distributions of phylogenetic trees. WGS-based clusters of isolates <5 single nucleotide polymorphisms were considered recent transmission, and large WGS-based clusters (>10 members) were considered outbreaks. Results. We analyzed data from 1449 participants with culture-confirmed TB. Among these, 946 (65%) participants had both molecular and geospatial data. A total of 62 belonged to five large outbreaks (10-19 participants each). Geospatial clustering was detected in two of the five large outbreaks, suggesting heterogeneous spatial patterns within the community. Conclusions. Integration of genomic and geospatial data identified distinct patterns of tuberculosis transmission in a high-tuberculosis burden setting. Targeted interventions in these smaller geographies may interrupt on-going transmission. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Background SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches. Findings Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts. Conclusions Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.

The National Center for Health Statistics is assessing the usefulness of recruited web panels in multiple research areas. One research area examines the use of close-ended probe questions and split-panel experiments for evaluating question-response patterns. Another research area is the development of statistical methodology to leverage the strength of national survey data to evaluate, and possibly improve, health estimates from recruited panels. Recruited web panels, with their lower cost and faster production cycle, in combination with established population health surveys, may be useful for some purposes for statistical agencies. Our initial results indicate that web survey data from a recruited panel can be used for question evaluation studies without affecting other survey content. However, the success of these data to provide estimates that align with those from large national surveys will depend on many factors, including further understanding of design features of the recruited panel (e.g. coverage and mode effects), the statistical methods and covariates used to obtain the original and adjusted weights, and the health outcomes of interest.

While web surveys have become increasingly popular as a method of data collection, there is concern that estimates obtained from web surveys may not reflect the target population of interest. Web survey estimates can be calibrated to existing national surveys using a propensity score adjustment, although requirements for the size and collection timeline of the reference data set have not been investigated. We evaluate health outcomes estimates from the National Center for Health Statistics' Research and Development web survey. In our study, the 2016 National Health Interview Survey as well as its quarterly subsets are considered as reference datasets for the web data. It is demonstrated that the calibrated health estimates overall vary little when using the quarterly or yearly data, suggesting that there is flexibility in selecting the reference dataset. This finding has many practical implications for constructing reference data, including the reduced cost and burden of a smaller sample size and a more flexible timeline.

Combining genomic and geospatial data can be useful for understanding Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in high-burden tuberculosis (TB) settings. We performed whole-genome sequencing on M. tuberculosis DNA extracted from sputum cultures from a population-based TB study conducted in Gaborone, Botswana, during 2012-2016. We determined spatial distribution of cases on the basis of shared genotypes among isolates. We considered clusters of isolates with ≤5 single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified by whole-genome sequencing to indicate recent transmission and clusters of ≥10 persons to be outbreaks. We obtained both molecular and geospatial data for 946/1,449 (65%) participants with culture-confirmed TB; 62 persons belonged to 5 outbreaks of 10-19 persons each. We detected geospatial clustering in just 2 of those 5 outbreaks, suggesting heterogeneous spatial patterns. Our findings indicate that targeted interventions applied in smaller geographic areas of high-burden TB identified using integrated genomic and geospatial data might help interrupt TB transmission during outbreaks.

INTRODUCTION: Among individuals with chronic respiratory conditions, transitions between patterns of tobacco product use are not well understood. This study examines how transitions, including quitting altogether, differ over time between those who do and do not have chronic respiratory conditions. METHODS: Data from youth and adult participants of the longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (2013-2018) were analyzed. Youth aged 12-17 years were included if they had aged into the adult sample by Wave 4. Stratified polytomous regression models built under a first-order Markov assumption modeled the probability of transitioning between different states/patterns of tobacco product use (exclusive current E-cigarette use, exclusive current combustible tobacco product use, current dual use of combustible products and E-cigarettes, and no current tobacco product use) at each wave. Marginal transition probabilities were computed as a function of ever or past-year diagnosis of a respiratory condition (separately for asthma and a composite variable representing chronic bronchitis, emphysema, and/or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). Analyses were conducted in 2020-2021. RESULTS: Most individuals, regardless of respiratory condition, maintained the same pattern of tobacco use between waves. Exclusive combustible tobacco product users, including those with or without a respiratory condition, were not likely to become exclusive E-cigarette users or to quit using tobacco entirely. CONCLUSIONS: Although combustible tobacco use negatively impacts the management and prognosis of respiratory illnesses, combustible tobacco users who were recently diagnosed with a chronic respiratory condition were not likely to quit using tobacco. Efforts to encourage and support cessation in this medically vulnerable population should be increased.

INTRODUCTION: Few studies have examined trends in over-the-counter U.S. Food and Drug Administration‒approved nicotine replacement therapy sales data and consumer preferences for nicotine replacement therapy attributes (e.g., flavor). Examination of consumer preferences may inform both public health smoking cessation programs as well as subsequent research on consumer preferences for potentially reduced-risk tobacco products U.S. Food and Drug Administration may authorize. METHODS: NielsenIQ Retail Measurement Service data were used to examine national trends in over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy dollar sales from 2017 to 2020 and dollar sales by retail channel and product attributes for the most recent year available at the time of analysis (2020). RESULTS: Over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy sales totaled about $1 billion annually between 2017 and 2020. Across the 4-year period, sales of gum and patches decreased, whereas lozenge sales increased (p<0.05 for all). In 2020, gum accounted for 52.7% ($511 million), lozenges accounted for 33.3% ($322 million), and patches accounted for 14.1% ($137 million) of over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy sales. Drug stores were the retail channel accounting for the largest percentage of total over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy sales (42.9%). Three leading brands-private label or store brands (62.8%), Nicorette (30.7%,), and NicoDerm CQ (5.7%)-accounted for 99.2% of the total over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy market. Mint was the most common flavor, representing 41.2% of total gum and 73.6% of total lozenge sales. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy sales sheds light on consumer preferences for attributes that can inform efforts to facilitate smoking cessation and research on preferences related to potentially reduced-risk tobacco products.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducts case surveillance through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS). This study aimed to provide surveillance report of unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning across multiple data sources to provide baseline data for the new NNDSS carbon monoxide poisoning surveillance. METHODS: For the period 2005 to 2018, we used 4 data sources to describe unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning: exposures reported by poison centers, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and deaths. We conducted descriptive analyses by the cause of exposure (fire, nonfire, or unknown), age, sex, season, and US census region. Additional analyses were conducted using poison center exposure case data focusing on the reported signs and symptoms, management site, and medical outcome. RESULTS: Annually, we observed 39.5 poison center exposure calls (per 1 million, nationally), 56.5 ED visits (per 1 million, across 17 states), 7.3 hospitalizations (per 1 million, in 26 states), and 3.3 deaths (per 1 million, nationally) due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning. For 2005 to 2018, there was a decrease in the crude rate for non-fire-related carbon monoxide poisonings from hospital, and death data. Non-fire-related cases comprised 74.0% of ED visits data, 60.1% of hospitalizations, and 40.9% of deaths compared with other unintentional causes. Across all data sources, unintentional carbon monoxide poisonings were most often reported during the winter season, notably in January and December. Children aged 0 to 9 years had the highest reported rates in poison center exposure case data and ED visits (54.1 and 70.5 per 1 million, respectively); adults older than 80 years had the highest rates of hospitalization and deaths (20.2 and 9.9 per 1 million, respectively); and deaths occurred more often among men and in the Midwest region. Poison center exposure call data revealed that 45.9% of persons were treated at a health care facility. Headaches, nausea, and dizziness/vertigo were the most reported symptoms. CONCLUSION: The crude rates in non-fire-related carbon monoxide poisonings from hospitalizations, and mortality significantly decreased over the study period (ie, 2005 to 2018). This surveillance report provides trends and characteristics of unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning and the baseline morbidities and mortality data for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention national surveillance system of carbon monoxide poisoning.

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality, with an estimated 10.6 million new cases and 1.6 million deaths globally in 2021 (1). Nosocomial transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the etiologic agent responsible for TB disease, is a major public health concern. This is particularly true for high-prevalence, low-resource settings where the majority of the global TB burden exists (2–6). Interventions to reduce nosocomial transmission require a clear understanding of where TB spreads in health-care facilities.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. METHODS: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. FINDINGS: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. INTERPRETATION: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. FUNDING: Various (see acknowledgments).

BACKGROUND: Anthrax is endemic to many countries, including the United States. The causative agent, Bacillus anthracis, poses a global bioterrorism threat. Without effective antimicrobial postexposure prophylaxis (PEPAbx) and treatment, the mortality of systemic anthrax is high. To inform clinical guidelines for PEPAbx and treatment of B. anthracis infections in humans, we systematically evaluated animal anthrax treatment model studies. METHODS: We searched for survival outcome data in 9 scientific search engines for articles describing antimicrobial PEPAbx or treatment of anthrax in animals in any language through February 2019. We performed meta-analyses of efficacy of antimicrobial PEPAbx and treatment for each drug or drug combination using random-effects models. Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic relationships were developed for 5 antimicrobials with available pharmacokinetic data. Monte Carlo simulations were used to predict unbound drug exposures in humans. RESULTS: We synthesized data from 34 peer-reviewed studies with 3262 animals. For PEPAbx and treatment of infection by susceptible B. anthracis, effective monotherapy can be accomplished with fluoroquinolones, tetracyclines, β-lactams (including penicillin, amoxicillin-clavulanate, and imipenem-cilastatin), and lipopeptides or glycopeptides. For naturally occurring strains, unbound drug exposures in humans were predicted to adequately cover the minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs; those required to inhibit the growth of 50% or 90% of organisms [MIC50 or MIC90]) for ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, and doxycycline for both the PEPAbx and treatment targets. Dalbavancin covered its MIC50 for PEPAbx. CONCLUSIONS: These animal studies show many reviewed antimicrobials are good choices for PEPAbx or treatment of susceptible B. anthracis strains, and some are also promising options for combating resistant strains. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that oral ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, and doxycycline are particularly robust choices for PEPAbx or treatment.

Exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) during pregnancy and lactation is of increasing public health concern, but little is known about longitudinal changes in maternal PFAS concentrations from pregnancy to a few years postpartum. We quantified 11 PFAS in 251 serum samples prospectively collected from 42 Northern California mothers during the first, second, and third trimesters of pregnancy and at 3, 6, and 24 months after delivery over 2009-2017. We fit separate linear mixed models during pregnancy, early postpartum, and late postpartum to estimate percent changes of PFAS for each subperiod. Among five PFAS detected in more than 99% of samples, linear and branched perfluorooctanesulfonate (n- and Sm-PFOS), linear perfluorooctanoate (n-PFOA), and perfluorononanoate (PFNA) concentrations changed -4% to -3% per month during pregnancy. During early postpartum, perfluorohexanesulfonate (PFHxS) and n-PFOA concentrations changed -6% and -5%, respectively, per month, and Sm-PFOS and PFNA concentrations changed -1% per month. During late postpartum, n-PFOS, Sm-PFOS, and PFNA concentrations changed -1% per month. Breastfeeding duration was the primary determinant of n-PFOA and PFNA concentrations during late postpartum, showing negative associations. Our findings might be useful for reconstructing reliable prenatal or early life PFAS exposures for offspring.

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-10 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced six-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, though may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.

SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

BACKGROUND: Emergency Department (ED) visits are common among adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD). However, little is known about how ED use has varied over time in this population, or how it has been affected by recent Medicaid policy changes. OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in ED use among adult Medicaid members with IDD in eight states that ranged in the extent to which they had implemented state-level Medicaid policy changes that might affect ED use. METHODS: We conducted repeated cross-sectional analyses of 2010-2016 Medicaid claims data. Quarterly analyses included adults ages 18-64 years with IDD (identified by diagnosis codes) who were continuously enrolled in Medicaid for the past 12 months. We assessed change in number of ED visits per 1000 member months from 2010 to 2016 overall and interacted with state level policy changes such as Medicaid expansion. RESULTS: States with no Medicaid expansion experienced an increase in ED visits (linear trend coefficient: 1.13, p < 0.01), while states operating expansion via waiver had a much smaller (non-significant) increase, and states with ACA-governed expansion had a decrease in ED visits (linear trend coefficient: 1.17, p < 0.01). Other policy changes had limited or no association with ED visits. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid expansion was associated with modest reduction or limited increase in ED visits compared to no expansion. We found no consistent decrease in ED visits in association with other Medicaid policy changes.

Bedaquiline Drug Resistance Emergence Assessment in Multidrug-resistant-tuberculosis (MDR-TB) (DREAM) was a 5-year (2015-2019) phenotypic drug-resistance surveillance study across 11 countries. DREAM assessed the susceptibility of 5036 MDR-TB isolates of bedaquiline-treatment-naïve patients to bedaquiline and other anti-tuberculosis drugs by the 7H9 broth microdilution (BMD) and 7H10/7H11 agar dilution (AD) minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) methods. Bedaquiline AD MIC quality control (QC) range for the H37Rv reference strain was unchanged, but the BMD MIC QC range (0.015-0.12 μg/ml) was adjusted compared with ranges from a multilaboratory, multicountry reproducibility study conforming to Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute Tier-2 criteria. Epidemiological cut-off values of 0.12 μg/ml by BMD and 0.25 μg/ml by AD were consistent with previous bedaquiline breakpoints. An area of technical uncertainty or Intermediate category was set at 0.25 μg/ml and 0.5 μg/ml for BMD and AD, respectively. When applied to the 5036 MDR-TB isolates, bedaquiline-susceptible, intermediate and bedaquiline-resistant rates were 97.9%, 1.5% and 0.6%, respectively, for BMD, and 98.8%, 0.8% and 0.4% for AD. Resistance rates were: ofloxacin 35.1%, levofloxacin 34.2%, moxifloxacin 33.3%, 1.5% linezolid and 2% clofazimine. Phenotypic cross resistance between bedaquiline and clofazimine was 0.4% in MDR-TB and 1% in pre-extensively drug-resistant (pre-XDR-TB)/XDR-TB populations. Co-resistance to bedaquiline and linezolid, and clofazimine and linezolid, were 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, in MDR-TB, and 0.2% and 0.4% in pre-XDR-TB/XDR-TB populations. Resistance rates to bedaquiline appear to be low in the bedaquiline-treatment-naïve population. No treatment-limiting patterns for cross-resistance and co-resistance have been identified with key TB drugs to date.

Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is highly effective in preventing disease progression of rabies when used in timely and appropriate manner. The key treatment for PEP is infiltration of rabies immune globulin (RIG) into lesion site after bite exposure, besides wound care and vaccination. Unfortunately, however, RIG is expensive and its supply is limited. Currently, several anti-rabies virus monoclonal antibody (mAb) products are under development as alternatives to RIG, and two recently received regulatory approval in India. In this study, fully human mAbs that recognize different rabies virus glycoprotein conformational antigenic site (II and III) were created from peripheral blood mononuclear cells of heathy vaccinated subjects. These mAbs neutralized a diverse range of lyssavirus types. As at least two anti-rabies virus mAbs are recommended for use in human PEP to ensure broad coverage against diverse lyssaviruses and to minimize possible escape variants, two most potent mAbs, NP-19-9 and 11B6, were selected to be used as cocktail treatment. These two mAbs were broadly reactive to different types of lyssaviruses isolates, and were shown to have no interference with each other. These results suggest that NP-19-9 and 11B6 are potent candidates to be used for PEP, suggesting further studies involving clinical studies in human.

Many children with developmental disabilities are not identified before age 3 years of age, preventing them from being able to fully benefit from early intervention services. Early childhood educators, particularly those in Early Head Start (EHS) programs, are important partners in the early identification of children with developmental delays. Learn the Signs. Act Early. (LTSAE) is a program of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that provides free developmental monitoring resources to increase the early identification of children with developmental delays and disabilities. This paper presents findings from the first evaluation of the use of LTSAE resources in EHS, which was conducted across four states and 11 EHS programs from fall 2018 through spring 2019. Surveys (n = 448) and interviews (n = 39) with EHS management, staff, and parents indicated that LTSAE resources were valued and accepted, and their use in EHS considered feasible. Importantly, families and staff reported the LTSAE materials provided shared language to help them more effectively discuss development. These findings inform EHS and other early education programs that wish to enhance developmental monitoring, screening, and referral. © 2021, This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply.