Introduction: The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2020–2025 recommends non-drinking or no more than 2 drinks for men or 1 drink for women in a day. However, even at lower levels, alcohol use increases the risk for certain cancers. This study estimated mean annual alcohol-attributable cancer deaths and the number of cancer deaths that could potentially be prevented if all U.S. adults who drank in excess of the Dietary Guidelines had instead consumed alcohol to correspond with typical consumption of those who drink within the recommended limits. Methods: Among U.S. residents aged ≥20 years, mean annual alcohol-attributable cancer deaths during 2020–2021 that could have been prevented with hypothetical reductions in alcohol use were estimated. Mean daily alcohol consumption prevalence estimates from the 2020–2021 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, adjusted to per capita alcohol sales to address underreporting of drinking, were applied to relative risks to calculate population-attributable fractions for cancers that can occur from drinking alcohol. Analyses were conducted during February–April 2023. Results: In the U.S., an estimated 20,216 cancer deaths were alcohol-attributable/year during 2020–2021 (men: 14,562 [72.0%]; women: 5,654 [28.0%]). Approximately 16,800 deaths (83% of alcohol-attributable cancer deaths, 2.8% of all cancer deaths) could have been prevented/year if adults who drank alcohol in excess of the Dietary Guidelines had instead reduced their consumption to ≤2 drinks/day for men or ≤1 drink/day for women. Approximately 650 additional deaths could have been prevented annually if men consumed 1 drink/day, instead of 2. Conclusions: Implementing evidence-based alcohol policies (e.g., increasing alcohol taxes, regulating alcohol outlet density) to decrease drinking could reduce alcohol-attributable cancers, complementing clinical interventions. © 2023

Deaths from causes fully attributable to alcohol use have increased during the past 2 decades in the United States, particularly from 2019 to 2020, concurrent with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, previous studies of trends have not assessed underlying causes of deaths that are partially attributable to alcohol use, such as injuries or certain types of cancer. CDC's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application was used to estimate the average annual number and age-standardized rate of deaths from excessive alcohol use in the United States based on 58 alcohol-related causes of death during three periods (2016-2017, 2018-2019, and 2020-2021). Average annual number of deaths from excessive alcohol use increased 29.3%, from 137,927 during 2016-2017 to 178,307 during 2020-2021; age-standardized alcohol-related death rates increased from 38.1 to 47.6 per 100,000 population. During this time, deaths from excessive alcohol use among males increased 26.8%, from 94,362 per year to 119,606, and among females increased 34.7%, from 43,565 per year to 58,701. Implementation of evidence-based policies that reduce the availability and accessibility of alcohol and increase its price (e.g., policies that reduce the number and concentration of places selling alcohol and increase alcohol taxes) could reduce excessive alcohol use and alcohol-related deaths.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Injuries often involve alcohol, but determining the proportion caused by alcohol is difficult. Several approaches have been used to determine the causal role of alcohol, but these methods have not been compared directly with one another. Such a comparison would be useful for understanding the strengths and comparability of different approaches. This study compared estimates of average annual alcohol-attributable deaths in the United States from injuries during 2015-19 using a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) method compared with a population attributable fraction (PAF) approach. METHODS: For the BAC method, we used a direct method involving the proportion of decedents with a high blood alcohol concentration (BAC; e.g. ≥ 0.10%). For the PAF approach, we compared the use of unadjusted survey data with average consumption data adjusted using alcohol sales data to account for underreporting and also accounting for the underreporting of binge drinking. Survey data were from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and mortality data were from the National Vital Statistics System. RESULTS: The number of alcohol-attributable injury deaths using the direct method (48 516 deaths annually) was similar to that using PAF methods (47 879 deaths annually), but only when alcohol use measures were adjusted using alcohol sales data. Furthermore, estimates were similar for cause-specific categories of deaths, including non-motor vehicle unintentional injuries and motor vehicle crashes. Among PAF methods, excessive drinking accounted for 38.3% of injury deaths using unadjusted survey data, but 64.8% of injury deaths using adjusted data. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of alcohol-attributable injury deaths from a direct method and from a population attributable fraction method that adjusts for alcohol use based on alcohol sales data appear to be comparable.

IMPORTANCE: Alcohol consumption is a leading preventable cause of death in the US, and death rates from fully alcohol-attributable causes (eg, alcoholic liver disease) have increased in the past decade, including among adults aged 20 to 64 years. However, a comprehensive assessment of alcohol-attributable deaths among this population, including from partially alcohol-attributable causes, is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the mean annual number of deaths from excessive alcohol use relative to total deaths among adults aged 20 to 64 years overall; by sex, age group, and state; and as a proportion of total deaths. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based cross-sectional study of mean annual alcohol-attributable deaths among US residents between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2019, used population-attributable fractions. Data were analyzed from January 6, 2021, to May 2, 2022. EXPOSURES: Mean daily alcohol consumption among the 2 089 287 respondents to the 2015-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was adjusted using national per capita alcohol sales to correct for underreporting. Adjusted mean daily alcohol consumption prevalence estimates were applied to relative risks to generate alcohol-attributable fractions for chronic partially alcohol-attributable conditions. Alcohol-attributable fractions based on blood alcohol concentrations were used to assess acute partially alcohol-attributable deaths. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Alcohol-attributable deaths for 58 causes of death, as defined in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application. Mortality data were from the National Vital Statistics System. RESULTS: During the 2015-2019 study period, of 694 660 mean deaths per year among adults aged 20 to 64 years (men: 432 575 [66.3%]; women: 262 085 [37.7%]), an estimated 12.9% (89 697 per year) were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption. This percentage was higher among men (15.0%) than women (9.4%). By state, alcohol-attributable deaths ranged from 9.3% of total deaths in Mississippi to 21.7% in New Mexico. Among adults aged 20 to 49 years, alcohol-attributable deaths (44 981 mean annual deaths) accounted for an estimated 20.3% of total deaths. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that an estimated 1 in 8 total deaths among US adults aged 20 to 64 years were attributable to excessive alcohol use, including 1 in 5 deaths among adults aged 20 to 49 years. The number of premature deaths could be reduced with increased implementation of evidenced-based, population-level alcohol policies, such as increasing alcohol taxes or regulating alcohol outlet density.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol is a leading contributor to liver disease, however, estimating the proportion of liver disease deaths attributable to alcohol use can be methodologically challenging. METHODS: We compared three approaches for estimating alcohol-attributable liver disease deaths (AALDD), using the USA as an example. One involved summing deaths from alcoholic liver disease and a proportion from unspecified cirrhosis (direct method); two used population attributable fraction (PAF) methodology, including one that adjusted for per capita alcohol sales. For PAFs, the 2011-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and per capita sales from the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System were used to derive alcohol consumption prevalence estimates at various levels (excessive alcohol use was defined by medium and high consumption levels). Prevalence estimates were used with relative risks from two meta-analyses, and PAFs were applied to the 2011-2015 average annual number of deaths from alcoholic cirrhosis and unspecified cirrhosis (using National Vital Statistics System data) to estimate AALDD. RESULTS: The number of AALDD was higher using the direct method (28 345 annually) than the PAF methods, but similar when alcohol prevalence was adjusted using per capita sales and all alcohol consumption levels were considered (e.g. 25 145 AALDD). Using the PAF method, disaggregating non-drinkers into lifetime abstainers and former drinkers to incorporate relative risks for former drinkers yielded higher AALDD estimates (e.g. 27 686) than methods with all non-drinkers combined. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Using PAF methods that adjust for per capita sales and model risks for former drinkers yield more complete and possibly more valid AALDD estimates.

OBJECTIVE: Self-reported alcohol consumption in U.S. public health surveys covers only 30%-60% of per capita alcohol sales, based on tax and shipment data. To estimate alcohol-attributable harms using alcohol-attributable fractions, accurate measures of total population consumption and the distribution of this drinking are needed. This study compared methodological approaches of adjusting self-reported survey data on alcohol consumption to better reflect sales and assessed the impact of these adjustments on the distribution of average daily consumption (ADC) levels and the number of alcohol-attributable deaths. METHOD: Prevalence estimates of ADC levels (i.e., low, medium, and high) among U.S. adults who responded to the 2011-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS; N = 2,198,089) were estimated using six methods. BRFSS ADC estimates were adjusted using the National Alcohol Survey, per capita alcohol sales data (from the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System), or both. Prevalence estimates for the six methods were used to estimate average annual alcohol-attributable deaths, using a population-attributable fraction approach. RESULTS: Self-reported ADC in the BRFSS accounted for 31.3% coverage of per capita alcohol sales without adjustments, 36.1% using indexed-BRFSS data, and 44.3% with National Alcohol Survey adjustments. Per capita sales adjustments decreased low ADC prevalence estimates and increased medium and high ADC prevalence estimates. Estimated alcohol-attributable deaths ranged from approximately 91,200 per year (BRFSS unadjusted; Method 1) to 125,200 per year (100% of per capita sales adjustment; Method 6). CONCLUSIONS: Adjusting ADC to reflect total U.S. alcohol consumption (e.g., adjusting to 73% of per capita sales) has implications for assessing the impact of excessive drinking on health outcomes, including alcohol-attributable death estimates.

Excessive alcohol use is a leading cause of preventable death in the United States (1) and costs associated with it, such as those from losses in workplace productivity, health care expenditures, and criminal justice, were $249 billion in 2010 (2). CDC used the Alcohol-Related Disease Impact (ARDI) application* to estimate national and state average annual alcohol-attributable deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) during 2011-2015, including deaths from one's own excessive drinking (e.g., liver disease) and from others' drinking (e.g., passengers killed in alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes). This study found an average of 95,158 alcohol-attributable deaths (261 deaths per day) and 2.8 million YPLL (29 years of life lost per death, on average) in the United States each year. Of all alcohol-attributable deaths, 51,078 (53.7%) were caused by chronic conditions, and 52,921 (55.6%) involved adults aged 35-64 years. Age-adjusted alcohol-attributable deaths per 100,000 population ranged from 20.8 in New York to 53.1 in New Mexico. YPLL per 100,000 population ranged from 631.9 in New York to 1,683.5 in New Mexico. Implementation of effective strategies for preventing excessive drinking, including those recommended by the Community Preventive Services Task Force (e.g., increasing alcohol taxes and regulating the number and concentration of alcohol outlets), could reduce alcohol-attributable deaths and YPLL.(†).

INTRODUCTION: Estimates of alcohol consumption in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System are generally lower than those in other surveys of U.S. adults. This study compares the estimates of adults' drinking patterns and the distribution of drinks consumed by average daily alcohol consumption from 2 nationwide telephone surveys. METHODS: The 2014-2015 National Alcohol Survey (n=7,067) and the 2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n=408,069) were used to assess alcohol consumption among adults (≥18 years), analyzed in 2019. The weighted prevalence of binge-level drinking and the distribution of drinks consumed by average daily alcohol consumption (low, medium, high) were assessed for the previous 12 months using the National Alcohol Survey and the previous 30 days using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, stratified by respondents' characteristics. RESULTS: The prevalence of binge-level drinking in a day was 26.1% for the National Alcohol Survey; the binge drinking prevalence was 17.4% for the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. The prevalence of high average daily alcohol consumption among current drinkers was 8.2% for the National Alcohol Survey, accounting for 51.0% of total drinks consumed, and 3.3% for the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, accounting for 27.7% of total drinks consumed. CONCLUSIONS: National Alcohol Survey yearly prevalence estimates of binge-level drinking in a day and high average daily consumption were consistently greater than Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System monthly binge drinking and high average daily consumption prevalence estimates. When planning and evaluating prevention strategies, the impact of different survey designs and methods on estimates of excessive drinking and related harms is important to consider.