SARS-CoV-2 has undergone repeated and rapid evolution to circumvent host immunity. However, outside of prolonged infections in immunocompromised hosts, within-host positive selection has rarely been detected. Here we combine daily longitudinal sampling of individuals with replicate sequencing to increase the accuracy of and lower the threshold for variant calling. We sequenced 577 specimens from 105 individuals in a household cohort during the BA.1/BA.2 variant period. Individuals exhibited extremely low viral diversity, and we estimated a low within-host evolutionary rate. Within-host dynamics were dominated by genetic drift and purifying selection. Positive selection was rare but highly concentrated in spike. A Wright Fisher Approximate Bayesian Computational model identified positive selection at 14 loci with 7 in spike, including S:448 and S:339. This detectable immune-mediated selection is unusual in acute respiratory infections and may be caused by the relatively narrow antibody repertoire in individuals during the early Omicron phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) burden is difficult to quantify with cases missed by surveillance systems. During COVID-19 Delta and Omicron BA.1-5 periods, we assessed the COVID-19 burden in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, from May 2021-July 2022 using a participatory surveillance system of self-reported respiratory disease and a database of people seeking healthcare. METHODS: To estimate community illness burden, we adjusted the NSW age-stratified non-case population by reported severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) percent positive and acute respiratory illness (ARI) rates. Hospitalization and death burden were estimated by adjusting reported rates to the NSW population and by the proportion of COVID-19 admissions attributable to COVID-19 illness. Burden estimates were compared to reported case counts. RESULTS: From May 2021-July 2022, an estimated 3,450,516 (95%CI: 2,847,355-4,119,472) symptomatic community ARI illnesses, 24,684 (95%CI: 20,714-29,144) hospitalizations, and 4,638 (95% CI: 3,263-6,049) deaths were attributable to COVID-19 in NSW. Reported cases (3,039,239) were 14% lower than the estimated symptomatic community illness burden but within the estimate's 95% confidence interval. Overall, 0.7% of symptomatic community illnesses resulted in hospitalization and 0.1% resulted in death. CONCLUSIONS: Estimated symptomatic case hospitalization and fatality risk could be used for COVID-19 modelling and forecasting.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and risk factors for ongoing symptoms following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [SCV2]) or influenza infection are not well characterized. We conducted a prospective cohort study of households wherein ≥1 individual was infected with SCV2 or influenza to evaluate prevalence of and factors associated with ongoing symptoms at 90 days. METHODS: Index cases and their household contacts provided baseline health and sociodemographic information and collected daily respiratory specimens for 10 days following enrollment. Participants completed a follow-up survey 90 days after enrollment to characterize ongoing symptoms. RESULTS: We analyzed 1967 participants enrolled between December 2021 and May 2023. The risk of ongoing symptoms did not differ by infection status in SCV2 (SCV2-positive: 15.6%; SCV2-negative: 13.9%; odds ratio [OR]: 1.14; 95% CI: .7-1.69) or influenza (influenza-positive: 8.8%; influenza-negative: 10.0%; OR: .87; 95% CI: .45-1.72) households. However, among study participants with a documented infection, SCV2-positive participants had nearly twice the odds of ongoing symptoms as influenza-positive participants (OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.27-2.97). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that SCV2 households have a significantly higher prevalence of ongoing symptoms compared with influenza households (OR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.28-2.47). Among participants with SCV2 infection, underlying conditions (adjusted OR [aOR]: 2.65; 95% CI: 1.80-3.90) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-like symptoms (aOR: 2.92; 95% CI: 1.15-7.43) during acute infection increased odds of ongoing symptoms at 90 days, whereas hybrid immunity reduced the odds of ongoing symptoms (aOR: 0.44; 95% CI: .22-.90).

Introduction: COVID-19 surveillance in congregate settings is important to mitigating disease, but the health and economic impact of testing remains unclear. Methods: The authors developed a Markov model to project the cost-utility of COVID-19 testing strategies in homeless shelters from the healthcare payer and societal perspective over 1 year. Model inputs utilized data from residents aged ≥18 years across 23 Seattle shelters from January 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021. No in-shelter surveillance was compared with scenarios of 2 COVID-19 testing strategies implemented monthly: polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing and rapid antigen testing; scenarios in which only PCR testing was available were also evaluated. The primary health outcome was quality-adjusted life years. Interventions were considered cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was ≤$150,000 per quality-adjusted life year and dominant if they saved costs and provided health effects. Results: When assuming the availability of both antigen and PCR tests, most rapid antigen testing strategies were cost-effective, whereas PCR testing was dominated by antigen testing. Compared with no in-shelter surveillance, antigen testing increased mean quality-adjusted life years by 0.0009 (0.03% infections averted) at an incremental cost of $97/resident from the healthcare perspective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio=$112,352/quality-adjusted life year gained) and $8/resident from the societal perspective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio=$9,627/quality-adjusted life year gained) at 75% vaccination coverage. PCR testing was not cost-effective when antigen testing was available but was cost-effective compared with no surveillance at low vaccination coverage levels (<30% coverage from the healthcare perspective and ≤48% coverage from the societal perspective). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that antigen testing was cost-effective in 62% and 86% of simulations from the healthcare and societal perspectives, respectively. Conclusions: Modeled findings show that COVID-19 testing in shelters can be a cost-effective pandemic response. Antigen testing remained cost-effective at high vaccination levels, whereas PCR testing was most effective at low vaccination levels if antigen testing was not available. © 2024 The Author(s)

COVID-19 vaccines mitigate severe disease, yet uptake remains low among people experiencing homelessness (PEH) despite the risk of transmission in congregate settings like homeless shelters. This study evaluated retrospective COVID-19 vaccination intent and decision-making between March 2020-October 2021 to identify modifiable factors to improve vaccine acceptance among PEH. We conducted 31 semi-structured interviews and eight focus group discussions across six homeless shelters in Seattle-King County, Washington. Residents and staff aged >= 18 years were recruited through purposive sampling for interviews and convenience sampling for focus groups. Thematic analysis was conducted. Participants reported that too much contradictory and changing information about COVID-19 vaccines led to confusion. Information deemed trustworthy contributed to individual's knowledge and in some cases changed their vaccination intent. While many intended to get vaccinated without external motivators, others were motivated by incentives and requirements. Despite intention to vaccinate, participants reported barriers to COVID-19 vaccine access including availability of vaccine doses, timely eligibility for vaccination, and availability of appointments. Participants presented recommendations to improve COVID-19 information content and dissemination, access, and use of incentives in shelter settings. Future research should test recommended vaccination strategies rooted in the voices and experiences of PEH to determine feasibility and effectiveness in shelter settings. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved)

The generation time, representing the interval between infections in primary and secondary cases, is essential for understanding and predicting the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza, including the real-time effective reproduction number (Rt). However, comprehensive generation time estimates for seasonal influenza, especially since the 2009 influenza pandemic, are lacking. We estimated the generation time utilizing data from a 7-site case-ascertained household study in the United States over two influenza seasons, 2021/2022 and 2022/2023. More than 200 individuals who tested positive for influenza and their household contacts were enrolled within 7 days of the first illness in the household. All participants were prospectively followed for 10 days, completing daily symptom diaries and collecting nasal swabs, which were then tested for influenza via RT-PCR. We analyzed these data by modifying a previously published Bayesian data augmentation approach that imputes infection times of cases to obtain both intrinsic (assuming no susceptible depletion) and realized (observed within household) generation times. We assessed the robustness of the generation time estimate by varying the incubation period, and generated estimates of the proportion of transmission occurring before symptomatic onset, the infectious period, and the latent period. We estimated a mean intrinsic generation time of 3.2 (95 % credible interval, CrI: 2.9-3.6) days, with a realized household generation time of 2.8 (95 % CrI: 2.7-3.0) days. The generation time exhibited limited sensitivity to incubation period variation. Estimates of the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset, the infectious period, and the latent period were sensitive to variations in the incubation period. Our study contributes to the ongoing efforts to refine estimates of the generation time for influenza. Our estimates, derived from recent data following the COVID-19 pandemic, are consistent with previous pre-pandemic estimates, and will be incorporated into real-time Rt estimation efforts.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how symptoms are associated with SARS-CoV-2 culture positivity is important for isolation and transmission control guidelines. METHODS: Individuals acutely infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Tennessee and their household contacts were recruited into a prospective study. All participants self-collected nasal swabs daily for 14 days and completed symptom diaries from the day of illness onset through day 14 postenrollment. Nasal specimens were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR. Positive specimens with cycle threshold values < 40 were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for viral culture. First, we modeled the association between symptoms and the risk of culture positivity using an age-adjusted generalized additive model (GAM) accounting for repeated measurements within participants and a symptom-day spline. Next, we investigated how timing of symptom resolution was associated with the timing of culture resolution. RESULTS: In a GAM restricted to follow-up days after symptoms began, the odds of a specimen being culture positive was significantly increased on days when wheezing, loss of taste or smell, runny nose, nasal congestion, sore throat, fever, or any symptom were reported. For all symptoms except sore throat, it was more common for participants to have culture resolution before symptom resolution than for culture to resolve after or on the same day as symptom resolution. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, symptomatic individuals were more likely to be SARS-CoV-2 viral culture positive. For most symptoms, culture positivity was more likely to end before symptoms resolved. However, a proportion of individuals remained culture positive after symptom resolved, across all symptoms.

IMPORTANCE: Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is commonly assessed against prevention of illness that requires medical attention. Few studies have evaluated VE against secondary influenza infections. OBJECTIVE: To determine the estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing secondary infections after influenza was introduced into households. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: During 3 consecutive influenza seasons (2017-2020), primary cases (the first household members with laboratory-confirmed influenza) and their household contacts in Tennessee and Wisconsin were enrolled into a prospective case-ascertained household transmission cohort study. Participants collected daily symptom diaries and nasal swabs for up to 7 days. Data were analyzed from September 2022 to February 2024. EXPOSURES: Vaccination history, self-reported and verified through review of medical and registry records. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Specimens were tested using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction to determine influenza infection. Longitudinal chain binomial models were used to estimate secondary infection risk and the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing infection among household contacts overall and by virus type and subtype and/or lineage. RESULTS: The analysis included 699 primary cases and 1581 household contacts. The median (IQR) age of the primary cases was 13 (7-38) years, 381 (54.5%) were female, 60 (8.6%) were Hispanic, 46 (6.6%) were non-Hispanic Black, 553 (79.1%) were Non-Hispanic White, and 343 (49.1%) were vaccinated. Among household contacts, the median age was 31 (10-41) years, 833 (52.7%) were female, 116 (7.3%) were Hispanic, 78 (4.9%) were non-Hispanic Black, 1283 (81.2%) were non-Hispanic White, 792 (50.1%) were vaccinated, and 356 (22.5%) had laboratory-confirmed influenza during follow-up. The overall secondary infection risk of influenza among household contacts was 18.8% (95% CI, 15.9% to 22.0%). The risk was highest among children and was 20.3% (95% CI, 16.4% to 24.9%) for influenza A and 15.9% (95% CI, 11.8% to 21.0%) for influenza B. The overall estimated VE for preventing secondary infections among unvaccinated household contacts was 21.0% (95% CI, 1.4% to 36.7%) and varied by type; estimated VE against influenza A was 5.0% (95% CI, -22.3% to 26.3%) and 56.4% (95% CI, 30.1% to 72.8%) against influenza B. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: After influenza was introduced into households, the risk of secondary influenza among unvaccinated household contacts was approximately 15% to 20%, and highest among children. Estimated VE varied by influenza type, with demonstrated protection against influenza B virus infection.

Congregate homeless shelters are disproportionately affected by infectious disease outbreaks. We describe enterovirus epidemiology across 23 adult and family shelters in King County, Washington, USA, during October 2019-May 2021, by using repeated cross-sectional respiratory illness and environmental surveillance and viral genome sequencing. Among 3,281 participants >3 months of age, we identified coxsackievirus A21 (CVA21) in 39 adult residents (3.0% [95% CI 1.9%-4.8%] detection) across 7 shelters during October 2019-February 2020. We identified enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 5 adult residents in 2 shelters during October-November 2019. Of 812 environmental samples, 1 was EV-D68-positive and 5 were CVA21-positive. Other enteroviruses detected among residents, but not in environmental samples, included coxsackievirus A6/A4 in 3 children. No enteroviruses were detected during April 2020-May 2021. Phylogenetically clustered CVA21 and EV-D68 cases occurred in some shelters. Some shelters also hosted multiple CVA21 lineages.

In Kenya, influenza virus circulates year-round, raising questions about optimum strategies for vaccination. Given national interest in introducing influenza vaccination for young children 6-23 months of age, we modeled total influenza-associated illnesses (inclusive of hospitalizations, outpatient illnesses, and non‒medically attended illnesses) averted by multiple potential vaccination strategies: year-round versus seasonal-campaign vaccination, and vaccination starting in April (Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine availability) versus October (Northern Hemisphere availability). We modeled average vaccine effectiveness of 50% and annual vaccination coverage of 60%. In the introduction year, year-round vaccination averted 6,410 total illnesses when introduced in October and 7,202 illnesses when introduced in April, whereas seasonal-campaign vaccination averted 10,236 (October) to 11,612 (April) illnesses. In the year after introduction, both strategies averted comparable numbers of illnesses (10,831-10,868 for year-round, 10,175-11,282 for campaign). Campaign-style vaccination would likely have a greater effect during initial pediatric influenza vaccine introduction in Kenya; however, either strategy could achieve similar longer-term effects.

While influenza A virus (IAV) antigenic drift has been documented globally, in experimental animal infections, and in immunocompromised hosts, positive selection has generally not been detected in acute infections. This is likely due to challenges in distinguishing selected rare mutations from sequencing error, a reliance on cross-sectional sampling, and/or the lack of formal tests of selection for individual sites. Here, we sequenced IAV populations from 346 serial, daily nasal swabs from 143 individuals collected over three influenza seasons in a household cohort. Viruses were sequenced in duplicate, and intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) were identified at a 0.5% frequency threshold. Within-host populations exhibited low diversity, with >75% mutations present at <2% frequency. Children (0-5 years) had marginally higher within-host evolutionary rates than adolescents (6-18 years) and adults (>18 years, 4.4 × 10(-6) vs. 9.42 × 10(-7) and 3.45 × 10(-6), P < .001). Forty-five iSNVs had evidence of parallel evolution but were not over-represented in HA and NA. Several increased from minority to consensus level, with strong linkage among iSNVs across segments. A Wright-Fisher approximate Bayesian computational model identified positive selection at 23/256 loci (9%) in A(H3N2) specimens and 19/176 loci (11%) in A(H1N1)pdm09 specimens, and these were infrequently found in circulation. Overall, we found that within-host IAV populations were subject to genetic drift and purifying selection, with only subtle differences across seasons, subtypes, and age strata. Positive selection was rare and inconsistently detected.

Isolation of symptomatic infectious persons can reduce influenza transmission. However, virus shedding that occurs without symptoms will be unaffected by such measures. Identifying effective isolation strategies for influenza requires understanding the interplay between individual virus shedding and symptom presentation. From 2017 to 2020, we conducted a case-ascertained household transmission study using influenza real-time RT-qPCR testing of nasal swabs and daily symptom diary reporting for up to 7 days after enrolment (≤14 days after index onset). We assumed real-time RT-qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were indicators of quantitative virus shedding and used symptom diaries to create a score that tracked influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms (fever, cough, or sore throat). We fit phenomenological nonlinear mixed-effects models stratified by age and vaccination status and estimated two quantities influencing isolation effectiveness: shedding before symptom onset and shedding that might occur once isolation ends. We considered different isolation end points (including 24 h after fever resolution or 5 days after symptom onset) and assumptions about the infectiousness of Ct shedding trajectories. Of the 116 household contacts with ≥2 positive tests for longitudinal analyses, 105 (91%) experienced ≥1 ILI symptom. On average, children <5 years experienced greater peak shedding, longer durations of shedding, and elevated ILI symptom scores compared with other age groups. Most individuals (63/105) shed <10% of their total shed virus before symptom onset, and shedding after isolation varied substantially across individuals, isolation end points, and infectiousness assumptions. Our results can inform strategies to reduce transmission from symptomatic individuals infected with influenza.

Households are a primary setting for transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We examined the role of prior SARS-CoV-2 immunity on the risk of infection in household close contacts. Households in the United States with an individual who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during September 2021-May 2023 were enrolled if the index case's illness began ≤6 days prior. Household members had daily self-collected nasal swabs tested by RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2. The effects of prior SARS-CoV-2 immunity (vaccination, prior infection, or hybrid immunity) on SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among household contacts were assessed by robust, clustered multivariable Poisson regression. Of 1,532 contacts (905 households), 8% had immunity from prior infection alone, 51% from vaccination alone, 29% hybrid immunity, and 11% had no prior immunity. Sixty percent of contacts tested SARS-CoV-2-positive during follow-up. The adjusted risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection was lowest among contacts with vaccination and prior infection (aRR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.93, compared with contacts with no prior immunity) and was lowest when the last immunizing event occurred ≤6 months before COVID-19 affected the household (aRR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.83). In high-transmission settings like households, immunity from COVID-19 vaccination and prior infection was synergistic in protecting household contacts from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Asymptomatic influenza virus infection occurs but may vary by factors such as age, influenza vaccination status, or influenza season. We examined the frequency of influenza virus infection and associated symptoms using data from two case-ascertained household transmission studies (conducted from 2017-2023) with prospective, systematic collection of respiratory specimens and symptoms. From the 426 influenza virus infected household contacts that met our inclusion criteria, 8% were asymptomatic, 6% had non-respiratory symptoms, 23% had acute respiratory symptoms, and 62% had influenza-like illness symptoms. Understanding the prevalence of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic influenza cases is important for implementing effective influenza prevention strategies and enhancing the effectiveness of symptom-based surveillance systems.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the need for rapid and accurate diagnostic tools. In August 2020, the Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19 Antigen Card test became available as a timely and affordable alternative for SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing, but its performance may vary due to factors including timing and symptomatology. This study evaluates BinaxNOW diagnostic performance in diverse epidemiological contexts. METHODS: Using RT-PCR as reference, we assessed performance of the BinaxNOW COVID-19 test for SARS-CoV-2 detection in anterior nasal swabs from participants of two studies in Puerto Rico from December 2020 to May 2023. Test performance was assessed by days post symptom onset, collection strategy, vaccination status, symptomatology, repeated testing, and RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values. RESULTS: BinaxNOW demonstrated an overall sensitivity of 84.1% and specificity of 98.8%. Sensitivity peaked within 1-6 days after symptom onset (93.2%) and was higher for symptomatic (86.3%) than asymptomatic (67.3%) participants. Sensitivity declined over the course of infection, dropping from 96.3% in the initial test to 48.4% in testing performed 7-14 days later. BinaxNOW showed 99.5% sensitivity in participants with low Ct values (≤ 25) but lower sensitivity (18.2%) for participants with higher Cts (36-40). CONCLUSIONS: BinaxNOW demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity, particularly in early-stage infections and symptomatic participants. In situations where test sensitivity is crucial for clinical decision-making, nucleic acid amplification tests are preferred. These findings highlight the importance of considering clinical and epidemiological context when interpreting test results and emphasize the need for ongoing research to adapt testing strategies to emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Introduction: Longitudinal data on how acute respiratory illness (ARI) affects behavior, namely school or work participation, and nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) usage before and during the COVID-19 pandemic is limited. The authors assessed how ARIs and specific symptoms affected school, work, and health-related behaviors over time. Methods: From November 2019 to June 2021, participating households with children in King County, Washington, were remotely monitored for ARI symptoms weekly. Following ARIs, participants reported illness-related effects on school, work, and NPI use. Using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations, the authors examined associations between symptoms and behaviors. Results: Of 1,861 participants, 581 (31%) from 293 households reported 884 ARIs and completed one-week follow-up surveys. Compared with the prepandemic period, during the period of the pandemic pre–COVID-19 vaccine, ARI-related school (56% vs 10%, p<0.001) absenteeism decreased and masking increased (3% vs 28%, p<0.001). After vaccine authorization in December 2020, more ARIs resulted in masking (3% vs 48%, p<0.001), avoiding contact with non-household members (26% vs 58%, p<0.001), and staying home (37% vs 69%, p<0.001) compared with the prepandemic period. Constitutional symptoms such as fever were associated with work disruptions (OR=1.91; 95% CI=1.06, 3.43), staying home (OR=1.55; 95% CI=1.06, 2.27), and decreased contact with non-household members (OR=1.58; 95% CI=1.05, 2.36). Conclusions: This remote household study permitted uninterrupted tracking of behavioral changes in families with children before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying increased use of some NPIs when ill but no additional illness-associated work or school disruptions. © 2024 The Authors

Background: Understanding how symptoms are associated with SARS-CoV-2 culture positivity is important for isolation and transmission control guidelines. Methods: Individuals acutely infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Tennessee and their household contacts were recruited into a prospective study. All participants self-collected nasal swabs daily for 14 days and completed symptom diaries from the day of illness onset through day 14 postenrollment. Nasal specimens were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR. Positive specimens with cycle threshold values < 40 were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for viral culture. First, we modeled the association between symptoms and the risk of culture positivity using an age-adjusted generalized additive model (GAM) accounting for repeated measurements within participants and a symptom-day spline. Next, we investigated how timing of symptom resolution was associated with the timing of culture resolution. Results: In a GAM restricted to follow-up days after symptoms began, the odds of a specimen being culture positive was significantly increased on days when wheezing, loss of taste or smell, runny nose, nasal congestion, sore throat, fever, or any symptom were reported. For all symptoms except sore throat, it was more common for participants to have culture resolution before symptom resolution than for culture to resolve after or on the same day as symptom resolution. Conclusions: Overall, symptomatic individuals were more likely to be SARS-CoV-2 viral culture positive. For most symptoms, culture positivity was more likely to end before symptoms resolved. However, a proportion of individuals remained culture positive after symptom resolved, across all symptoms. © 2024 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Studies of SARS-CoV-2 incidence are important for response to continued transmission and future pandemics. We followed a rural community cohort with broad age representation with active surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 identification from November 2020 through July 2022. Participants provided serum specimens at regular intervals and following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. We estimated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection identified by study RT-PCR, electronic health record documentation or self-report of a positive test, or serology. We also estimated the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid antibodies measured by ELISA. Overall, 65% of the cohort had ≥1 SARS-CoV-2 infection by July 2022, and 19% of those with primary infection were reinfected. Infection and vaccination contributed to high seroprevalence, 98% (95% CI: 95%, 99%) of participants were spike or nucleocapsid seropositive at the end of follow-up. Among those seropositive, 82% were vaccinated. Participants were more likely to be seropositive to spike than nucleocapsid following infection. Infection among seropositive individuals could be identified by increases in nucleocapsid, but not spike, ELISA optical density values. Nucleocapsid antibodies waned more quickly after infection than spike antibodies. High levels of SARS-CoV-2 population immunity, as found in this study, are leading to changing epidemiology necessitating ongoing surveillance and policy evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (N/R) reduces severe outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); however, rebound after treatment has been reported. We compared symptom and viral dynamics in individuals with COVID-19 who completed N/R treatment and similar untreated individuals. METHODS: We identified symptomatic participants who tested severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-positive and were N/R eligible from a COVID-19 household transmission study. Index cases from ambulatory settings and their households contacts were enrolled. We collected daily symptoms, medication use, and respiratory specimens for quantitative polymerase chain reaction for 10 days during March 2022-May 2023. Participants who completed N/R treatment (treated) were propensity score matched to untreated participants. We compared symptom rebound, viral load (VL) rebound, average daily symptoms, and average daily VL by treatment status measured after N/R treatment completion or 7 days after symptom onset if untreated. RESULTS: Treated (n = 130) and untreated participants (n = 241) had similar baseline characteristics. After treatment completion, treated participants had greater occurrence of symptom rebound (32% vs 20%; P = .009) and VL rebound (27% vs 7%; P < .001). Average daily symptoms were lower among treated participants without symptom rebound (1.0 vs 1.6; P < .01) but not statistically lower with symptom rebound (3.0 vs 3.4; P = .5). Treated participants had lower average daily VLs without VL rebound (0.9 vs 2.6; P < .01) but not statistically lower with VL rebound (4.8 vs 5.1; P = .7). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who completed N/R treatment experienced fewer symptoms and lower VL but rebound occured more often compared with untreated individuals. Providers should prescribe N/R, when indicated, and communicate rebound risk to patients.

BACKGROUND: A better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among Hispanic and Latino populations and in low-resource settings in the United States is needed to inform control efforts and strategies to improve health equity. Puerto Rico has a high poverty rate and other population characteristics associated with increased vulnerability to COVID-19, and there are limited data to date to determine community incidence. OBJECTIVE: This study describes the protocol and baseline seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective community-based cohort study (COPA COVID-19 [COCOVID] study) to investigate SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence and morbidity in Ponce, Puerto Rico. METHODS: In June 2020, we implemented the COCOVID study within the Communities Organized to Prevent Arboviruses project platform among residents of 15 communities in Ponce, Puerto Rico, aged 1 year or older. Weekly, participants answered questionnaires on acute symptoms and preventive behaviors and provided anterior nasal swab samples for SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction testing; additional anterior nasal swabs were collected for expedited polymerase chain reaction testing from participants that reported 1 or more COVID-19-like symptoms. At enrollment and every 6 months during follow-up, participants answered more comprehensive questionnaires and provided venous blood samples for multiantigen SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G antibody testing (an indicator of seroprevalence). Weekly follow-up activities concluded in April 2022 and 6-month follow-up visits concluded in August 2022. Primary study outcome measures include SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence and seroprevalence, relative risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection by participant characteristics, SARS-CoV-2 household attack rate, and COVID-19 illness characteristics and outcomes. In this study, we describe the characteristics of COCOVID participants overall and by SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence status at baseline. RESULTS: We enrolled a total of 1030 participants from 388 households. Relative to the general populations of Ponce and Puerto Rico, our cohort overrepresented middle-income households, employed and middle-aged adults, and older children (P<.001). Almost all participants (1021/1025, 99.61%) identified as Latino/a, 17.07% (175/1025) had annual household incomes less than US $10,000, and 45.66% (463/1014) reported 1 or more chronic medical conditions. Baseline SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was low (16/1030, 1.55%) overall and increased significantly with later study enrollment time (P=.003). CONCLUSIONS: The COCOVID study will provide a valuable opportunity to better estimate the burden of SARS-CoV-2 and associated risk factors in a primarily Hispanic or Latino population, assess the limitations of surveillance, and inform mitigation measures in Puerto Rico and other similar populations. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/53837.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the burden of disease averted by vaccination can assist policymakers to implement, adjust, and communicate the value of vaccination programs. Demonstrating the use of a newly available modeling tool, we estimated the burden of influenza illnesses averted by seasonal influenza vaccination in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru during 2011-2017 among two influenza vaccine target populations: children aged 6-23 months and pregnant women. METHODS: We derived model inputs, including incidence, vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness, and multipliers from publicly available country-level influenza surveillance data and cohort studies. We also estimated changes in illnesses averted when countries' vaccine coverage was achieved using four different vaccine deployment strategies. RESULTS: Among children aged 6-23 months, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 2,161 hospitalizations, 81,907 medically-attended illnesses, and 126,987 overall illnesses during the study period, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.3 % to 12.5 %. Among pregnant women, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 173 hospitalizations, 6,122 medically attended illnesses, and 16,412 overall illnesses, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.2 % to 10.9 %. Compared to an influenza vaccine campaign with equal vaccine distribution during March-June, scenarios in which total cumulative coverage was achieved in March and April consistently resulted in the greatest increase in averted illness (23 %-3,129 % increase among young children and 22 %-3,260 % increase among pregnant women). DISCUSSION: Influenza vaccination campaigns in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru conducted between 2011 and 2018 prevented hundreds to thousands of influenza-associated hospitalizations and illnesses in young children and pregnant women. Existing vaccination programs could prevent additional illnesses, using the same number of vaccines, by achieving the highest possible coverage within the first two months of an influenza vaccine campaign.

BACKGROUND: Early during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was important to better understand transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Household contacts of infected individuals are particularly at risk for infection, but delays in contact tracing, delays in testing contacts, and isolation and quarantine posed challenges to accurately capturing secondary household cases. METHODS: In this study, 346 households in the Seattle region were provided with respiratory specimen collection kits and remotely monitored using web-based surveys for respiratory illness symptoms weekly between October 1, 2020, and June 20, 2021. Symptomatic participants collected respiratory specimens at symptom onset and mailed specimens to the central laboratory in Seattle. Specimens were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR with whole genome sequencing attempted when positive. SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals were notified, and their household contacts submitted specimens every 2 days for 14 days. RESULTS: In total, 1371 participants collected 2029 specimens that were tested; 16 individuals (1.2%) within 6 households tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the study period. Full genome sequences were generated from 11 individuals within 4 households. Very little genetic variation was found among SARS-CoV-2 viruses sequenced from different individuals in the same household, supporting transmission within the household. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates web-based surveillance of respiratory symptoms, combined with rapid and longitudinal specimen collection and remote contact tracing, provides a viable strategy to monitor households and detect household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. TRIAL REGISTRATION IDENTIFIER: NCT04141930, Date of registration 28/10/2019.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has led to hundreds of millions of infections worldwide. Although differences in COVID-19 hospitalization rates between males and females have been described, many infections in the general population have been mild, and the severity of symptoms during the course of COVID-19 in non-hospitalized males and females is not well understood. METHODS: We conducted a case-ascertained study to examine household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Nashville, Tennessee, between April 2020 and April 2021. Among enrolled ambulatory adult participants with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections, we assessed the presence and severity of symptoms (total, systemic, and respiratory) daily using a symptoms severity questionnaire, from illness onset and throughout the 2-week follow-up period. We compared the mean daily symptom severity scores (0-3: none, mild, moderate, and severe) and change in symptoms between males and females using a multivariable linear mixed effects regression model. RESULTS: The analysis included 223 enrolled adults with SARS-CoV-2 infection (58% females, mostly white, non-Hispanic) from 146 households with 2917 total daily symptom reports. The overall mean severity of total symptoms reported over the illness period was 1.04 and 0.90 for females and males, respectively. Mean systemic and respiratory scores were higher for females than for males (p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, females reported more severe total and systemic symptoms during the illness period compared with males. However, no significant differences in reported respiratory symptoms were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that among ambulatory adults with SARS-CoV-2 infections, females reported slightly higher symptom severity during their illness compared with males.

We assessed serum neutralization of Omicron BA.5 in children following SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Delta or Omicron BA.1/BA.2 variant period. Convalescent BA.5 titers were higher following infections during the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 vs Delta variant period, and in vaccinated vs unvaccinated children. Titers against BA.5 did not differ by age group.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in influenza transmission was uncertain. However, the importance of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 for onward transmission of COVID-19 has led experts to question whether the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in transmission had been underappreciated. We discuss the existing evidence on the frequency of asymptomatic influenza virus infections, the extent to which they contribute to infection transmission, and remaining knowledge gaps. We propose priority areas for further evaluation, study designs, and case definitions to address existing knowledge gaps.

BACKGROUND: Influenza burden varies across seasons, partly due to differences in circulating influenza virus types or subtypes. Using data from the US population-based surveillance system, Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET), we aimed to assess the severity of influenza-associated outcomes in individuals hospitalised with laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections during the 2010-11 to 2018-19 influenza seasons. METHODS: To evaluate the association between influenza virus type or subtype causing the infection (influenza A H3N2, A H1N1pdm09, and B viruses) and in-hospital severity outcomes (intensive care unit [ICU] admission, use of mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [ECMO], and death), we used FluSurv-NET to capture data for laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalisations from the 2010-11 to 2018-19 influenza seasons for individuals of all ages living in select counties in 13 US states. All individuals had to have an influenza virus test within 14 days before or during their hospital stay and an admission date between Oct 1 and April 30 of an influenza season. Exclusion criteria were individuals who did not have a complete chart review; cases from sites that contributed data for three or fewer seasons; hospital-onset cases; cases with unidentified influenza type; cases of multiple influenza virus type or subtype co-infection; or individuals younger than 6 months and ineligible for the influenza vaccine. Logistic regression models adjusted for influenza season, influenza vaccination status, age, and FluSurv-NET site compared odds of in-hospital severity by virus type or subtype. When missing, influenza A subtypes were imputed using chained equations of known subtypes by season. FINDINGS: Data for 122 941 individuals hospitalised with influenza were captured in FluSurv-NET from the 2010-11 to 2018-19 seasons; after exclusions were applied, 107 941 individuals remained and underwent influenza A virus imputation when missing A subtype (43·4%). After imputation, data for 104 969 remained and were included in the final analytic sample. Averaging across imputed datasets, 57·7% (weighted percentage) had influenza A H3N2, 24·6% had influenza A H1N1pdm09, and 17·7% had influenza B virus infections; 16·7% required ICU admission, 6·5% received mechanical ventilation or ECMO, and 3·0% died (95% CIs had a range of less than 0·1% and are not displayed). Individuals with A H1N1pdm09 had higher odds of in-hospital severe outcomes than those with A H3N2: adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for A H1N1pdm09 versus A H3N2 were 1·42 (95% CI 1·32-1·52) for ICU admission; 1·79 (1·60-2·00) for mechanical ventilation or ECMO use; and 1·25 (1·07-1·46) for death. The adjusted ORs for individuals infected with influenza B versus influenza A H3N2 were 1·06 (95% CI 1·01-1·12) for ICU admission, 1·14 (1·05-1·24) for mechanical ventilation or ECMO use, and 1·18 (1·07-1·31) for death. INTERPRETATION: Despite a higher burden of hospitalisations with influenza A H3N2, we found an increased likelihood of in-hospital severe outcomes in individuals hospitalised with influenza A H1N1pdm09 or influenza B virus. Thus, it is important for individuals to receive an annual influenza vaccine and for health-care providers to provide early antiviral treatment for patients with suspected influenza who are at increased risk of severe outcomes, not only when there is high influenza A H3N2 virus circulation but also when influenza A H1N1pdm09 and influenza B viruses are circulating. FUNDING: The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of respiratory viral infections is complex. How infection with one respiratory virus affects risk of subsequent infection with the same or another respiratory virus is not well described. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from a longitudinal household cohort study from October 2019-June 2021. Enrolled households completed active surveillance for acute respiratory illness (ARI), and participants with ARI self-collected nasal swabs; after April 2020, participants with ARI or laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and their household members self-collected nasal swabs. Specimens were tested via multiplex RT-PCR for respiratory viruses. A Cox regression model with a time-dependent covariate examined risk of subsequent detections following a specific primary viral detection. RESULTS: Rhinovirus was the most frequently detected pathogen in study specimens (n=406, 9.5%). Among 51 participants with multiple viral detections, rhinovirus to seasonal coronavirus (8, 14.8%) was the most common viral detection pairing. Relative to no primary detection, there was a 1.03-2.06-fold increase in risk of subsequent virus detection in the 90 days following primary detection; risk varied by primary virus: parainfluenza, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Primary virus detection was associated with higher risk of subsequent virus detection within the first 90 days after primary detection.

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first identified in Wuhan, China and has since become pandemic. As part of initial response activities in the United States, enhanced contact investigations were conducted to enable early identification and isolation of additional cases and to learn more about risk factors for transmission.Methods Close contacts of nine early travel-related cases in the United States were identified. Close contacts meeting criteria for active monitoring were followed, and selected individuals were targeted for collection of additional exposure details and respiratory samples. Respiratory samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Results There were 404 close contacts who underwent active monitoring in the response jurisdictions; 338 had at least basic exposure data, of whom 159 had ≥1 set of respiratory samples collected and tested. Across all known close contacts under monitoring, two additional cases were identified; both secondary cases were in spouses of travel-associated case patients. The secondary attack rate among household members, all of whom had ≥1 respiratory sample tested, was 13% (95% CI: 4 – 38%).Conclusions The enhanced contact tracing investigations undertaken around nine early travel-related cases of COVID-19 in the United States identified two cases of secondary transmission, both spouses. Rapid detection and isolation of the travel-associated case patients, enabled by public awareness of COVID-19 among travelers from China, may have mitigated transmission risk among close contacts of these cases.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementNo external funding was sought or received.Author DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData may be available upon reasonable request.

Homeless shelter residents and staff may be at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, | 34 SARS-CoV-2 infection estimates in this population have been reliant on cross-sectional or | 35 outbreak investigation data. We conducted routine surveillance and outbreak testing in 23 | 36 homeless shelters in King County, Washington to estimate the occurrence of laboratory37 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk factors during 1/1/2020 -5/31/2021. Symptom surveys | 38 and nasal swabs were collected for SARS-CoV-2 testing by RT-PCR for residents aged ≥3 | 39 months and staff. We collected 12,915 specimens from 2,930 unique participants. We identified | 40 4.74 (95% CI 4.00 – 5.58) SARS-CoV-2 infections per 100 individuals (residents: 4.96, 95% CI | 41 4.12 – 5.91; staff: 3.86, 95% CI 2.43 – 5.79). Most infections were asymptomatic at time of | 42 detection (74%) and detected during routine surveillance (73%). Outbreak testing yielded higher | 43 test positivity compared to routine surveillance (2.7% vs. 0.9%). Among those infected, | 44 residents were less likely to report symptoms than staff. Participants who were vaccinated | 45 against seasonal influenza and were current smokers had lower odds of having an infection | 46 detected. Active surveillance that includes SARS-CoV-2 testing of all persons is essential in | 47 ascertaining the true burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections among residents and staff of congregate | 48 settings.

Homeless shelter residents and staff may be at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, SARS-CoV-2 infection estimates in this population have been reliant on cross-sectional or outbreak investigation data. We conducted routine surveillance and outbreak testing in 23 homeless shelters in King County, Washington to estimate the occurrence of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk factors during 1/1/2020 -5/31/2021. Symptom surveys and nasal swabs were collected for SARS-CoV-2 testing by RT-PCR for residents aged >=3 months and staff. We collected 12,915 specimens from 2,930 unique participants. We identified 4.74 (95% CI 4.00 - 5.58) SARS-CoV-2 infections per 100 individuals (residents: 4.96, 95% CI 4.12 - 5.91; staff: 3.86, 95% CI 2.43 - 5.79). Most infections were asymptomatic at time of detection (74%) and detected during routine surveillance (73%). Outbreak testing yielded higher test positivity compared to routine surveillance (2.7% vs. 0.9%). Among those infected, residents were less likely to report symptoms than staff. Participants who were vaccinated against seasonal influenza and were current smokers had lower odds of having an infection detected. Active surveillance that includes SARS-CoV-2 testing of all persons is essential in ascertaining the true burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections among residents and staff of congregate settings. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.