Last data update: Jan 13, 2025. (Total: 48570 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 239 Records) |
Query Trace: Rivera A[original query] |
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Longitudinal analysis of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody durability in Puerto Rico
Madewell ZJ , Graff NE , Lopez VK , Rodriguez DM , Wong JM , Maniatis P , Medina FA , Muñoz JL , Briggs-Hagen M , Adams LE , Rivera-Amill V , Paz-Bailey G , Major CG . Sci Rep 2024 14 (1) 30743 Understanding the dynamics of antibody responses following vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection is important for informing effective vaccination strategies and other public health interventions. This study investigates SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics in a Puerto Rican cohort, analyzing how IgG levels vary by vaccination status and previous infection. We assess waning immunity and the distribution of hybrid immunity with the aim to inform public health strategies and vaccination programs in Puerto Rico and similar settings. We conducted a prospective, longitudinal cohort study to identify SARS-CoV-2 infections and related outcomes in Ponce, Puerto Rico, from June 2020-August 2022. Participants provided self-collected nasal swabs every week and serum every six months for RT-PCR and IgG testing, respectively. IgG reactivity against nucleocapsid (N) antigens, which generally indicate previous infection, and spike (S1) and receptor-binding domain (RBD) antigens, which indicate history of either infection or vaccination, was assessed using the Luminex Corporation xMAP® SARS-CoV-2 Multi-Antigen IgG Assay. Prior infection was defined by positive RT-PCRs, categorized by the predominant circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant at the event time. Demographic information, medical history, and COVID-19 vaccination history were collected through standardized questionnaires. Of 882 participants included in our analysis, 34.0% experienced at least one SARS-CoV-2 infection, with most (78.7%) occurring during the Omicron wave (December 2021 onwards). SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence increased over time, reaching 98.4% by the final serum collection, 67.0% attributable to vaccination alone, 1.6% from infection alone, and 31.4% from both. Regardless of prior infection status, RBD and S1 IgG levels gradually declined following two vaccine doses. A third dose boosted these antibody levels and showed a slower decline over time. N-antibody levels peaked during the Omicron surge and waned over time. Vaccination in individuals with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection elicited the highest and most durable antibody responses. N or S1 seropositivity was associated with lower odds of a subsequent positive PCR test during the Omicron period, with N antibodies showing a stronger association. By elucidating the differential decay of RBD and S1 antibodies following vaccination and the complexities of N-antibody response following infection, this study in a Puerto Rican cohort strengthens the foundation for developing targeted interventions and public health strategies. |
Epidemiology of Dengue - Puerto Rico, 2010-2024
Rodriguez DM , Madewell ZJ , Torres JM , Rivera A , Wong JM , Santiago GA , Rivera-Amill V , Paz-Bailey G , Marzan-Rodriguez M , Adams LE . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (49) 1112-1117 Dengue is a mosquitoborne viral illness that can cause acute febrile illness, severe disease, or death. Worldwide, the number of dengue cases is increasing. During the last dengue outbreaks in Puerto Rico throughout 2010-2013, dengue virus (DENV) serotype 1 (DENV-1) predominated, and the largest proportion of cases occurred among adolescents and young adults aged 10-19 years. Dengue case data from January 1, 2010-November 4, 2024, were obtained from the Puerto Rico Department of Health. Bivariate analyses were conducted to evaluate the distribution of cases by patient age, DENV serotype, and hospitalization status during three periods: 2010-2019, 2020-2022, and 2023-2024. During 2023-2024, the median age of dengue cases increased to 26 years (95% CI = 25-27 years) compared with that during 2020-2022 (17 years; 95% CI = 17-18 years) and 2010-2019 (19 years; 95% CI = 19-19 years). After >10 years of DENV-1 predominance, the proportions of DENV serotypes 2 (DENV-2) and 3 (DENV-3) increased significantly during 2023-2024, with DENV-3 replacing DENV-1 as the predominant serotype. In addition, the proportion of dengue patients who were hospitalized increased from 35.7% (2010-2019) to 53.5% (2023-2024). The current dengue outbreak in Puerto Rico marks a shift in serotype predominance to DENV-3 and increasing percentages of cases in older age groups (61.7% in adults aged ≥20 years), although a high proportion of cases still occur among adolescents aged 10-19 years (29.5%). The current dengue outbreak also has a higher rate of hospitalizations than those in previous years. Understanding the changing epidemiology of dengue is crucial to guiding public health strategies for dengue control, including clinical management, surveillance and health care system resilience, and public outreach and education. |
Bartonella quintana infection in kidney transplant recipients from donor experiencing homelessness, United States, 2022
Beeson AM , Rich SN , Russo ME , Bhatnagar J , Kumar RN , Ritter JM , Annambhotla P , Takeda MR , Kuhn KF , Pillai P , DeLeon-Carnes M , Scobell R , Ekambaram M , Finkel R , Reagan-Steiner S , Martines RB , Satoskar RS , Vranic GM , Mohammed R , Rivera GE , Cooper K , Abdelal H , Couturier MR , Bradley BT , Hinckley AF , Koehler JE , Mead PS , Kuehnert MJ , Ackelsberg J , Basavaraju SV , Marx GE . Emerg Infect Dis 2024 30 (12) 2467-2475 Bartonella quintana infection can cause severe disease that includes clinical manifestations such as endocarditis, chronic bacteremia, and vasoproliferative lesions of the skin and viscera. B. quintana bacteria is transmitted by the human body louse (Pediculus humanus corporis) and is associated with homelessness and limited access to hygienic services. We report B. quintana infection in 2 kidney transplant recipients in the United States from an organ donor who was experiencing homelessness. One infection manifested atypically, and the other was minimally symptomatic; with rapid detection, both recipients received timely treatment and recovered. B. quintana was identified retrospectively in an archived donor hematoma specimen, confirming the transmission link. Information about the organ donor's housing status was critical to this investigation. Evaluation for B. quintana infection should be considered for solid organ transplant recipients who receive organs from donors with a history of homelessness or of body lice infestation. |
Rocky Mountain spotted fever in Mexico: A call to action
Álvarez-Hernández G , López-Ridaura R , Cortés-Alcalá R , García Rodríguez G , Calleja-López JRT , Rivera-Rosas CN , Alomía-Zegarra JL , Brophy M , Brito-Lorán CB , Del Carmen Candia-Plata M , Ceballos-Liceaga SE , Correa-Morales F , Dzul-Rosado KR , Foley J , Galván-Moroyoqui JM , Ganta R , Gutiérrez-Cedillo V , Hernández-Milán NS , López-Pérez AM , López-Soto LF , Martínez-Soto JM , Mata-Pineda AL , Paddock CD , Ruiz-González ILJ , Salinas-Aguirre JE , Salzer JS , Sánchez-Montes S , Soto-Guzmán A , Tamez-Rivera Ó , Wagner DM , Walker DH . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2024 111 (5) 1070-1077 Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is an ongoing public health crisis in Mexico, particularly in states bordering the United States. The national highest incidence and mortality of RMSF occur in this region, resulting in a case-fatality rate that ranges annually between 10% and 50%, primarily affecting vulnerable groups such as children, elderly adults, and persons living in poverty. Multiple biological, environmental, and social determinants can explain its growing presence throughout the country and how it challenges the health system and society. It is necessary to integrate resources and capacities from health authorities, research centers, and society to succeed in dealing with this problem. Through a scientific symposium, a group of academicians, U.S. health officials, and Mexican health authorities met on November 8-10, 2023, in Hermosillo, Mexico, to discuss the current situation of RMSF across the country and the challenges associated with its occurrence. An urgent call for action to improve national capacity against RMSF in the aspects of epidemiological and acarological surveillance, diagnosis, medical care, case and outbreak prevention, health promotion, and research was urged by the experts. The One Health approach is a proven multidisciplinary strategy to integrate policies and interventions to mitigate and prevent the burden of cases, deaths, and suffering caused by RMSF in Mexico. |
A scoping review to determine if adverse human health effects are associated with use of organophosphates for mosquito control
Tai Z , Connelly CR , Kuczynski Lange S , Foley N , De Leon Rivera J , Lozano S , Nett RJ . J Med Entomol 2024 Organophosphate insecticides are widely used for adult mosquito control. Although proven effective in reducing mosquito populations and limiting arbovirus transmission, public concern exists regarding potential human health effects associated with organophosphate exposure. The aim of this scoping review was to describe any reported human health conditions associated with organophosphates during their use for adult mosquito control in the United States and Canada. Original peer-reviewed articles published in English language journals from 1 January 2000 to 22 May 2024, were obtained by searching from the databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection, CAB Abstracts, and Scopus. The search identified 6,154 screened articles. Following an independent review, 10 studies were identified that described human health conditions associated with organophosphate exposure during adult mosquito control applications. Of the 10 included studies, only two articles were published within the last 11 years (2013 to 22 May 2024). Three types of study design were represented in the included studies: cohort (n = 5), case study (n = 1), and risk assessment (n = 4). The included studies could not determine causality between exposure to adulticides and development of illness or adverse impacts. Exposure to organophosphates did not contribute to an observed increase in metabolic toxicity, hospitalization rates, or self-reported symptoms and exposure. The available and limited evidence indicates that organophosphates can be used safely to control nuisance mosquitoes or mosquitoes that transmit arboviruses. Continued research regarding the human health effects associated with organophosphate applications for adult mosquito control could help evaluate the basis of the public's concerns and inform public health decision-making. |
Assessment of clarity of images in COVID-19 health education materials among diverse communities in the United States
Pinto SJ , Rubio B , Blackmun Elsberry L , Rivera C , Rodriguez Lainz A . Health Commun 2024 1-12 Given the need to provide clear communication to diverse audiences in the United States during public health emergencies, this assessment of images in COVID-19 communication materials identified ways to improve visual communication design. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 74 participants from various racial and ethnic backgrounds to gauge the clarity of images without associated text used in two infographics. Most images were understood by participants, but for each image at least some participants had an interpretation different from intended or only captured a portion of the message. Some images were interpreted by most or all participants as representing something other than intended. Participant recommendations were used to develop seven practical ways to improve image clarity: realistic graphics, exaggerated body position and actions, details to show image context and background, icons to encourage or discourage actions, symbols to show movement, consistency in recommended behavior in each image, and closely matching image to associated text. These elements can be applied in combination with existing health equity guiding principles for creating visual communication products before testing and validating products with intended audiences of different sociodemographic and cultural background to ensure appropriateness and clarity of images. |
Comparison of the sensitivity and specificity of commercial anti-dengue virus IgG tests to identify persons eligible for dengue vaccination
Medina FA , Vila F , Adams LE , Cardona J , Carrion J , Lamirande E , Acosta LN , De León-Rodríguez CM , Beltran M , Grau D , Rivera-Amill V , Balmaseda A , Harris E , Madewell ZJ , Waterman SH , Paz-Bailey G , Whitehead S , Muñoz-Jordán JL . J Clin Microbiol 2024 e0059324 The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that dengue pre-vaccination screening tests for Dengvaxia administration have at least 98% specificity and 75% sensitivity. This study evaluates the performance of commercial anti-DENV IgG tests to identify tests that could be used for pre-vaccination screening. First, for seven tests, we evaluated sensitivity and specificity in early convalescent dengue virus (DENV) infection, using 44 samples collected 7-30 days after symptom onset and confirmed by RT-PCR. Next, for the five best-performing tests and two additional tests (with and without an external test reader) that became available later, we evaluated performance to detect past dengue infection among a panel of 44 specimens collected in 2018-2019 from healthy 9- to 16-year-old children from Puerto Rico. Finally, a full-scale evaluation was done with the four best-performing tests using 400 specimens from the same population. We used virus focus reduction neutralization test and an in-house DENV IgG ELISA as reference standards. Of seven tests, five showed ≥75% sensitivity in detecting anti-DENV IgG in early convalescent specimens with low cross-reactivity to the Zika virus. For the detection of previous DENV infections, the tests with the highest performance were the Euroimmun NS1 IgG ELISA (sensitivity 84.5%, specificity 97.1%) and CTK Dengue IgG rapid test R0065C with the test reader (sensitivity 76.2% specificity 98.1%). There are IgG tests available that can be used to accurately classify individuals with previous DENV infection as eligible for dengue vaccination to support safe vaccine implementation. IMPORTANCE: The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) has set forth recommendations that dengue pre-vaccination screening tests must exhibit at least 98% specificity and 75% sensitivity. Our research rigorously assesses the performance of various commercial tests against these benchmarks using well-characterized specimens from Puerto Rico. The findings from our study are particularly relevant given FDA approval and ACIP recommendation of Sanofi Pasteur's Dengvaxia vaccine, highlighting the need for accurate pre-vaccination screening tools. |
Diagnostic accuracy of the Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19 antigen card test, Puerto Rico
Madewell ZJ , Major CG , Graff N , Adams C , Rodriguez DM , Morales T , Medina Lopes NA , Tosado R , Sánchez-González L , Perez-Padilla J , Volkman HR , Bertrán-Pasarell J , Sainz de la Peña D , Munoz-Jordan J , Santiago GA , Lorenzi O , Rivera-Amill V , Rolfes MA , Paz-Bailey G , Adams LE , Wong JM . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2024 18 (7) e13305 BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the need for rapid and accurate diagnostic tools. In August 2020, the Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19 Antigen Card test became available as a timely and affordable alternative for SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing, but its performance may vary due to factors including timing and symptomatology. This study evaluates BinaxNOW diagnostic performance in diverse epidemiological contexts. METHODS: Using RT-PCR as reference, we assessed performance of the BinaxNOW COVID-19 test for SARS-CoV-2 detection in anterior nasal swabs from participants of two studies in Puerto Rico from December 2020 to May 2023. Test performance was assessed by days post symptom onset, collection strategy, vaccination status, symptomatology, repeated testing, and RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values. RESULTS: BinaxNOW demonstrated an overall sensitivity of 84.1% and specificity of 98.8%. Sensitivity peaked within 1-6 days after symptom onset (93.2%) and was higher for symptomatic (86.3%) than asymptomatic (67.3%) participants. Sensitivity declined over the course of infection, dropping from 96.3% in the initial test to 48.4% in testing performed 7-14 days later. BinaxNOW showed 99.5% sensitivity in participants with low Ct values (≤ 25) but lower sensitivity (18.2%) for participants with higher Cts (36-40). CONCLUSIONS: BinaxNOW demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity, particularly in early-stage infections and symptomatic participants. In situations where test sensitivity is crucial for clinical decision-making, nucleic acid amplification tests are preferred. These findings highlight the importance of considering clinical and epidemiological context when interpreting test results and emphasize the need for ongoing research to adapt testing strategies to emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. |
Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a neglected tropical disease in Latin America
Álvarez-Hernández G , Paddock CD , Walker DH , Valenzuela JG , Calleja-López JRT , Rivera-Rosas CN , Sotelo-Mundo RR . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024 18 (7) e0012276 Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF), a severe and extraordinarily lethal infectious disease, has emerged as a widespread public health crisis among predominantly vulnerable populations in several countries of Latin America, particularly evident in northern Mexico. Historically, RMSF has gained less attention than many other tropical infectious diseases, resulting in insufficient allocations of resources and development of capabilities for its prevention and control in endemic regions. We argue that RMSF fulfills accepted criteria for a neglected tropical disease (NTD). The relative neglect of RMSF in most Latin American countries contributes to disparities in morbidity and mortality witnessed in this region. By recognizing RMSF as an NTD, an increased public policy interest, equitable and more appropriate allocation of resources, scientific interest, and social participation can ameliorate the impact of this potentially treatable disease, particularly in vulnerable populations. |
Reported xylazine use among adults aged ≥18 years evaluated for substance use treatment - United States, July 2022-September 2023
Jiang X , Connolly S , Strahan AE , Rivera Blanco L , Mikosz CA , Guy GP Jr , Dowell D . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (26) 594-599 Xylazine has been increasingly detected in illegally manufactured fentanyl (IMF) products and overdose deaths in the United States; most xylazine-involved overdose deaths involve IMF. A convenience sample of U.S. adults aged ≥18 years was identified from those evaluated for substance use treatment during July 2022-September 2023. Data were collected using the Addiction Severity Index-Multimedia Version clinical assessment tool. Among 43,947 adults, 6,415 (14.6%) reported IMF or heroin as their primary lifetime substance-use problem; 5,344 (12.2%) reported recent (i.e., past-30-day) IMF or heroin use. Among adults reporting IMF or heroin as their primary lifetime substance-use problem, 817 (12.7%) reported ever using xylazine. Among adults reporting recent IMF or heroin use, 443 (8.3%) reported recent xylazine use. Among adults reporting IMF or heroin use recently or as their primary lifetime substance-use problem, those reporting xylazine use reported a median of two past nonfatal overdoses from any drug compared with a median of one overdose among those who did not report xylazine use; as well, higher percentages of persons who reported xylazine use reported other recent substance use and polysubstance use. Provision of nonjudgmental care and services, including naloxone, wound care, and linkage to and retention of persons in effective substance use treatment, might reduce harms including overdose among persons reporting xylazine use. |
Rocky Mountain spotted fever mimicking multisystem inflammatory syndrome in hospitalized children, Sonora, Mexico
Álvarez-Hernández G , Rivera-Rosas CN , Calleja-López JRT , McCormick DW , Paddock CD , Álvarez-Meza JB , Correa-Morales F . Emerg Infect Dis 2024 30 (7) We describe 5 children who had Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) and manifested clinical symptoms similar to multisystem inflammatory syndrome in Sonora, Mexico, where RMSF is hyperendemic. Physicians should consider RMSF in differential diagnoses of hospitalized patients with multisystem inflammatory syndrome to prevent illness and death caused by rickettsial disease. |
Insecticide susceptibility status of Anopheles albimanus populations in historical malaria foci in Quintana Roo, Mexico
Escobar D , González-Olvera G , Gómez-Rivera Á S , Navarrete-Carballo J , Mis-Ávila P , Baack-Valle R , Escalante G , Reyes-Cabrera G , Correa-Morales F , Che-Mendoza A , Vazquez-Prokopec G , Lenhart A , Manrique-Saide P . Malar J 2024 23 (1) 165 BACKGROUND: Mexico has experienced a significant reduction in malaria cases over the past two decades. Certification of localities as malaria-free areas (MFAs) has been proposed as a steppingstone before elimination is achieved throughout the country. The Mexican state of Quintana Roo is a candidate for MFA certification. Monitoring the status of insecticide susceptibility of major vectors is crucial for MFA certification. This study describes the susceptibility status of Anopheles albimanus, main malaria vector, from historically important malaria foci in Quintana Roo, using both phenotypic and genotypic approaches. METHODS: Adult mosquito collections were carried out at three localities: Palmar (Municipality of Othon P. Blanco), Buenavista (Bacalar) and Puerto Morelos (Puerto Morelos). Outdoor human-landing catches were performed by pairs of trained staff from 18:00 to 22:00 during 3-night periods at each locality during the rainy season of 2022. Wild-caught female mosquitoes were exposed to diagnostic doses of deltamethrin, permethrin, malathion, pirimiphos-methyl or bendiocarb using CDC bottle bioassays. Mortality was registered at the diagnostic time and recovery was assessed 24 h after exposure. Molecular analyses targeting the Voltage-Gated Sodium Channel (vgsc) gene and acetylcholinesterase (ace-1) gene were used to screen for target site polymorphisms. An SNP analysis was carried out to identify mutations at position 995 in the vgsc gene and at position 280 in the ace-1 gene. RESULTS: A total of 2828 anophelines were collected. The main species identified were Anopheles albimanus (82%) and Anopheles vestitipennis (16%). Mortalities in the CDC bottle bioassay ranged from 99% to 100% for all the insecticides and mosquito species. Sequence analysis was performed on 35 An. albimanus across the three localities; of those, 25 were analysed for vgsc and 10 for ace-1 mutations. All individuals showed wild type alleles. CONCLUSION: The results demonstrated that An. albimanus populations from historical malaria foci in Quintana Roo are susceptible to the main insecticides used by the Ministry of Health. |
Sentinel enhanced dengue surveillance system - Puerto Rico, 2012-2022
Madewell ZJ , Hernandez-Romieu AC , Wong JM , Zambrano LD , Volkman HR , Perez-Padilla J , Rodriguez DM , Lorenzi O , Espinet C , Munoz-Jordan J , Frasqueri-Quintana VM , Rivera-Amill V , Alvarado-Domenech LI , Sainz D , Bertran J , Paz-Bailey G , Adams LE . MMWR Surveill Summ 2024 73 (3) 1-29 PROBLEM/CONDITION: Dengue is the most prevalent mosquitoborne viral illness worldwide and is endemic in Puerto Rico. Dengue's clinical spectrum can range from mild, undifferentiated febrile illness to hemorrhagic manifestations, shock, multiorgan failure, and death in severe cases. The disease presentation is nonspecific; therefore, various other illnesses (e.g., arboviral and respiratory pathogens) can cause similar clinical symptoms. Enhanced surveillance is necessary to determine disease prevalence, to characterize the epidemiology of severe disease, and to evaluate diagnostic and treatment practices to improve patient outcomes. The Sentinel Enhanced Dengue Surveillance System (SEDSS) was established to monitor trends of dengue and dengue-like acute febrile illnesses (AFIs), characterize the clinical course of disease, and serve as an early warning system for viral infections with epidemic potential. REPORTING PERIOD: May 2012-December 2022. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: SEDSS conducts enhanced surveillance for dengue and other relevant AFIs in Puerto Rico. This report includes aggregated data collected from May 2012 through December 2022. SEDSS was launched in May 2012 with patients with AFIs from five health care facilities enrolled. The facilities included two emergency departments in tertiary acute care hospitals in the San Juan-Caguas-Guaynabo metropolitan area and Ponce, two secondary acute care hospitals in Carolina and Guayama, and one outpatient acute care clinic in Ponce. Patients arriving at any SEDSS site were eligible for enrollment if they reported having fever within the past 7 days. During the Zika epidemic (June 2016-June 2018), patients were eligible for enrollment if they had either rash and conjunctivitis, rash and arthralgia, or fever. Eligibility was expanded in April 2020 to include reported cough or shortness of breath within the past 14 days. Blood, urine, nasopharyngeal, and oropharyngeal specimens were collected at enrollment from all participants who consented. Diagnostic testing for dengue virus (DENV) serotypes 1-4, chikungunya virus, Zika virus, influenza A and B viruses, SARS-CoV-2, and five other respiratory viruses was performed by the CDC laboratory in San Juan. RESULTS: During May 2012-December 2022, a total of 43,608 participants with diagnosed AFI were enrolled in SEDSS; a majority of participants (45.0%) were from Ponce. During the surveillance period, there were 1,432 confirmed or probable cases of dengue, 2,293 confirmed or probable cases of chikungunya, and 1,918 confirmed or probable cases of Zika. The epidemic curves of the three arboviruses indicate dengue is endemic; outbreaks of chikungunya and Zika were sporadic, with case counts peaking in late 2014 and 2016, respectively. The majority of commonly identified respiratory pathogens were influenza A virus (3,756), SARS-CoV-2 (1,586), human adenovirus (1,550), respiratory syncytial virus (1,489), influenza B virus (1,430), and human parainfluenza virus type 1 or 3 (1,401). A total of 5,502 participants had confirmed or probable arbovirus infection, 11,922 had confirmed respiratory virus infection, and 26,503 had AFI without any of the arboviruses or respiratory viruses examined. INTERPRETATION: Dengue is endemic in Puerto Rico; however, incidence rates varied widely during the reporting period, with the last notable outbreak occurring during 2012-2013. DENV-1 was the predominant virus during the surveillance period; sporadic cases of DENV-4 also were reported. Puerto Rico experienced large outbreaks of chikungunya that peaked in 2014 and of Zika that peaked in 2016; few cases of both viruses have been reported since. Influenza A and respiratory syncytial virus seasonality patterns are distinct, with respiratory syncytial virus incidence typically reaching its annual peak a few weeks before influenza A. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 led to a reduction in the circulation of other acute respiratory viruses. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION: SEDSS is the only site-based enhanced surveillance system designed to gather information on AFI cases in Puerto Rico. This report illustrates that SEDSS can be adapted to detect dengue, Zika, chikungunya, COVID-19, and influenza outbreaks, along with other seasonal acute respiratory viruses, underscoring the importance of recognizing signs and symptoms of relevant diseases and understanding transmission dynamics among these viruses. This report also describes fluctuations in disease incidence, highlighting the value of active surveillance, testing for a panel of acute respiratory viruses, and the importance of flexible and responsive surveillance systems in addressing evolving public health challenges. Various vector control strategies and vaccines are being considered or implemented in Puerto Rico, and data from ongoing trials and SEDSS might be integrated to better understand epidemiologic factors underlying transmission and risk mitigation approaches. Data from SEDSS might guide sampling strategies and implementation of future trials to prevent arbovirus transmission, particularly during the expansion of SEDSS throughout the island to improve geographic representation. |
Measles outbreak associated with a migrant shelter - Chicago, Illinois, February-May 2024
Gressick K , Nham A , Filardo TD , Anderson K , Black SR , Boss K , Chavez-Torres M , Daniel-Wayman S , Dejonge P , Faherty E , Funk M , Kerins J , Kim DY , Kittner A , Korban C , Pacilli M , Schultz A , Sloboda A , Zelencik S , Barnes A , Geltz JJ , Morgan J , Quinlan K , Reid H , Chatham-Stephens K , Lanzieri TM , Leung J , Lutz CS , Nyika P , Raines K , Ramachandran S , Rivera MI , Singleton J , Wang D , Rota PA , Sugerman D , Gretsch S , Borah BF . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (19) 424-429 Measles, a highly contagious respiratory virus with the potential to cause severe complications, hospitalization, and death, was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000; however, with ongoing global transmission, infections in the United States still occur. On March 7, 2024, the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) confirmed a case of measles in a male aged 1 year residing in a temporary shelter for migrants in Chicago. Given the congregate nature of the setting, high transmissibility of measles, and low measles vaccination coverage among shelter residents, measles virus had the potential to spread rapidly among approximately 2,100 presumed exposed shelter residents. CDPH immediately instituted outbreak investigation and response activities in collaboration with state and local health departments, health care facilities, city agencies, and shelters. On March 8, CDPH implemented active case-finding and coordinated a mass vaccination campaign at the affected shelter (shelter A), including vaccinating 882 residents and verifying previous vaccination for 784 residents over 3 days. These activities resulted in 93% measles vaccination coverage (defined as receipt of ≥1 recorded measles vaccine dose) by March 11. By May 13, a total of 57 confirmed measles cases associated with residing in or having contact with persons from shelter A had been reported. Most cases (41; 72%) were among persons who did not have documentation of measles vaccination and were considered unvaccinated. In addition, 16 cases of measles occurred among persons who had received ≥1 measles vaccine dose ≥21 days before first known exposure. This outbreak underscores the need to ensure high vaccination coverage among communities residing in congregate settings. |
Investigating SARS-CoV-2 incidence and morbidity in Ponce, Puerto Rico: Protocol and baseline results from a community cohort study
Major CG , Rodríguez DM , Sánchez-González L , Rodríguez-Estrada V , Morales-Ortíz T , Torres C , Pérez-Rodríguez NM , Medina-Lópes NA , Alexander N , Mabey D , Ryff K , Tosado-Acevedo R , Muñoz-Jordán J , Adams LE , Rivera-Amill V , Rolfes M , Paz-Bailey G . JMIR Res Protoc 2024 13 e53837 BACKGROUND: A better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among Hispanic and Latino populations and in low-resource settings in the United States is needed to inform control efforts and strategies to improve health equity. Puerto Rico has a high poverty rate and other population characteristics associated with increased vulnerability to COVID-19, and there are limited data to date to determine community incidence. OBJECTIVE: This study describes the protocol and baseline seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective community-based cohort study (COPA COVID-19 [COCOVID] study) to investigate SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence and morbidity in Ponce, Puerto Rico. METHODS: In June 2020, we implemented the COCOVID study within the Communities Organized to Prevent Arboviruses project platform among residents of 15 communities in Ponce, Puerto Rico, aged 1 year or older. Weekly, participants answered questionnaires on acute symptoms and preventive behaviors and provided anterior nasal swab samples for SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction testing; additional anterior nasal swabs were collected for expedited polymerase chain reaction testing from participants that reported 1 or more COVID-19-like symptoms. At enrollment and every 6 months during follow-up, participants answered more comprehensive questionnaires and provided venous blood samples for multiantigen SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G antibody testing (an indicator of seroprevalence). Weekly follow-up activities concluded in April 2022 and 6-month follow-up visits concluded in August 2022. Primary study outcome measures include SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence and seroprevalence, relative risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection by participant characteristics, SARS-CoV-2 household attack rate, and COVID-19 illness characteristics and outcomes. In this study, we describe the characteristics of COCOVID participants overall and by SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence status at baseline. RESULTS: We enrolled a total of 1030 participants from 388 households. Relative to the general populations of Ponce and Puerto Rico, our cohort overrepresented middle-income households, employed and middle-aged adults, and older children (P<.001). Almost all participants (1021/1025, 99.61%) identified as Latino/a, 17.07% (175/1025) had annual household incomes less than US $10,000, and 45.66% (463/1014) reported 1 or more chronic medical conditions. Baseline SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was low (16/1030, 1.55%) overall and increased significantly with later study enrollment time (P=.003). CONCLUSIONS: The COCOVID study will provide a valuable opportunity to better estimate the burden of SARS-CoV-2 and associated risk factors in a primarily Hispanic or Latino population, assess the limitations of surveillance, and inform mitigation measures in Puerto Rico and other similar populations. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/53837. |
Perceptions of Dengue risk and acceptability of a dengue vaccine in residents of Puerto Rico
Rosado-Santiago C , Pérez-Guerra CL , Vélez-Agosto NM , Colón-Burgos C , Marrero-Santos KM , Partridge SK , Lockwood AE , Young C , Waterman SH , Paz-Bailey G , Cardona-Gerena I , Rivera A , Adams LE , Wong JM . Hum Vaccin Immunother 2024 20 (1) 2323264 Dengvaxia is the first dengue vaccine recommended in the United States (U.S.). It is recommended for children aged 9-16 y with laboratory-confirmed previous dengue infection and living in areas where dengue is endemic. We conducted focus groups with parents and in-depth interviews with key informants (i.e. practicing pediatricians, physicians from immunization clinics, university researchers, and school officials) in Puerto Rico (P.R.) to examine acceptability, barriers, and motivators to vaccinate with Dengvaxia. We also carried out informal meetings and semi-structured interviews to evaluate key messages and educational materials with pediatricians and parents. Barriers to vaccination included lack of information, distrust toward new vaccines, vaccine side effects and risks, and high cost of/lack of insurance coverage for laboratory tests and vaccines. Motivators included clear information about the vaccine, a desire to prevent future dengue infections, the experience of a previous dengue infection or awareness of dengue fatality, vaccine and laboratory tests covered by health insurance, availability of rapid test results and vaccine appointments. School officials and parents agreed parents would pay a deductible of $5-20 for Dengvaxia. For vaccine information dissemination, parents preferred an educational campaign through traditional media and social media, and one-on-one counseling of parents by healthcare providers. Education about this vaccine to healthcare providers will help them answer parents' questions. Dengvaxia acceptability in P.R. will increase by addressing motivators and barriers to vaccination and by disseminating vaccine information in plain language through spokespersons from health institutions in P.R. |
Acceptability of emergent Aedes aegypti vector control methods in Ponce, Puerto Rico: A qualitative assessment
Pérez-Guerra CL , Rosado-Santiago C , Ramos SA , Marrero-Santos KM , González-Zeno G , Partridge SK , Rivera-Amill V , Paz-Bailey G , Sánchez-González L , Hayden MH . PLOS Glob Public Health 2024 4 (3) e0002744 Aedes aegypti control has been fraught with challenges in Puerto Rico. The government has implemented commonly used vector control methods, but arboviral epidemics still occur. It is necessary to explore new Ae. aegypti control methods. This study aimed to understand the perceptions of community members in Ponce, Puerto Rico about emergent and traditional Ae. aegypti vector control methods and determine their acceptability and support for these methods. We identified the type of information needed to increase support for emergent vector control methods, and the preferred strategies to disseminate this information. Four group discussions were conducted with a total of 32 participants representing eight of the 14 clusters participating in the Communities Organized for the Prevention of Arboviruses (COPA), a project designed to mobilize communities in Ponce, Puerto Rico to prevent diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. Group discussions began with an overview of different methods used for controlling Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. These overviews facilitated participant understanding of the mosquito control methods presented. Use of source reduction, autocidal gravid ovitraps (AGO), and manual application of larvicide for arboviral mosquito control received support from almost all participants. Vector control methods that use more familiar techniques in Puerto Rico such as truck-mounted larvicide spraying (TMLS) and insecticide residual spraying received support from most participants. More than half of participants supported the use of emergent mosquito control methods including Wolbachia suppression, Wolbachia replacement, or genetically modified mosquitoes (GMM). Participants preferred to receive vector control information through house-to-house visits with the distribution of written materials, followed by dissemination of information through traditional (i.e., radio, television) and social media. The detailed information resulting from this study was used to develop messages for a communications campaign to garner future community support. Community acceptance and support are critical for the success of vector control programs using emergent mosquito control methods. |
Evaluation of a dried blood and plasma collection device, SampleTanker(®), for HIV type 1 drug resistance genotyping in patients receiving antiretroviral therapy.
Diallo K , Lehotzky E , Zhang J , Zhou Z , de Rivera IL , Murillo WE , Nkengasong J , Sabatier J , Zhang G , Yang C . AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses 2014 30 (1) 67-73 Whatman 903 filter paper is the only filter paper that has been used for HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) genotyping in resource-limited settings. In this study, we evaluated another dried blood specimen collection device, termed SampleTanker(®) (ST), for HIVDR genotyping. Blood specimens from 123 antiretroviral therapy (ART)-experienced patients were used to prepare ST whole blood and ST plasma specimens; they were then stored at ambient temperature for 2 or 4 weeks. The remaining plasma specimens were stored at -80°C and used as frozen plasma controls. Frozen plasma viral load (VL) was determined using the Roche Amplicor HIV-1 Monitor test, v.1.5 and 50 specimens with VL ≥3.00 log10 copies/ml were genotyped using the broadly sensitive genotyping assay. The medium VL for the 50 frozen plasma specimens with VL ≥3.00 log10 was 3.58 log10 copies/ml (IQR: 3.32-4.11) and 96.0% (48/50) of them were genotyped. Comparing to frozen plasma specimens, significantly lower genotyping rates were obtained from ST whole blood (48.98% and 42.85%) and ST plasma specimens (36.0% and 36.0%) stored at ambient temperature for 2 and 4 weeks, respectively (p<0.001). Nucleotide sequence identity and resistance profile analyses between the matched frozen plasma and ST whole blood or ST plasma specimens revealed high nucleotide sequence identities and concordant resistance profiles (98.1% and 99.0%, and 96.6% and 98.9%, respectively). Our results indicate that with the current design, the ST may not be the ideal dried blood specimen collection device for HIVDR monitoring for ART patients in resource-limited settings. |
Assessing the living environment of persons displaced following a strong earthquake sequence in Puerto Rico, 2020
Cruz MA , Garfield R , Irizarry J , Torres-Delgado NI , Rodriguez-Rivera MZ , Montoya-Zavala M , Cortes LM , Algarín G , Bayleyegn T , Funk RH , Rodriguez-Orengo JF , Zavala DE . J Emerg Manag 2023 21 (6) 487-495 In the public health portfolio of disaster tools, rapid needs assessments are essential intelligence data mining resources that can assess immediate needs in almost all hazard scenarios. Following prolonged and unusual seismic activity that caused significant structural damage, mainly in the southwest part of the island of Puerto Rico, thousands of area residents were forced to leave their homes and establish improvised camps. The austere environmental exposure and limited access to safety and hygiene services prompted public health authorities to request assistance with conducting a rapid needs assessment of those encampments. This report summarizes the design, organization, and execution of a rapid needs assessment of improvised camps following a strong sequence of earthquakes in Puerto Rico. |
Safety and immunogenicity of shorter interval schedules of the novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 in infants: a phase 3, randomised, controlled, non-inferiority study in the Dominican Republic
Rivera Mejía L , Peña Méndez L , Bandyopadhyay AS , Gast C , Mazara S , Rodriguez K , Rosario N , Zhang Y , Mainou BA , Jimeno J , Aguirre G , Rüttimann R . Lancet Infect Dis 2023 BACKGROUND: The novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) is now authorised by a WHO emergency use listing and widely distributed to interrupt outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2. As protection of vulnerable populations, particularly young infants, could be facilitated by shorter intervals between the two recommended doses, we aimed to assess safety and non-inferiority of immunogenicity of nOPV2 in 1-week, 2-week, and 4-week schedules. METHODS: In this phase 3, open-label, randomised trial, healthy, full-term, infants aged 6-8 weeks from a hospital or a clinic in the Dominican Republic were randomly allocated (1:1:1 ratio) using a pre-prepared, computer-generated randomisation schedule to three groups to receive two doses of nOPV2 immunisations with a 1-week interval (group A), 2-week interval (group B), or 4-week interval (group C). The nOPV2 vaccine was given at a 0·1 mL dose and contained at least 10(5) 50% cell culture infective dose. Neutralising antibodies against poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 were measured before each immunisation and 4 weeks after the second dose. The primary outcome was the type 2 seroconversion rate 28 days after the second dose, and the non-inferiority margin was defined as a lower bound 95% CI of greater than -10%. Safety and reactogenicity were assessed through diary cards completed by the parent or guardian. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05033561. FINDINGS: We enrolled 905 infants between Dec 16, 2021, and March 28, 2022. 872 infants were included in the per-protocol analyses: 289 in group A, 293 in group B, and 290 in group C. Type 2 seroconversion rates were 87·5% (95% CI 83·2 to 91·1) in group A (253 of 289 participants), 91·8% (88·1 to 94·7) in group B (269 of 293 participants), and 95·5% (92·5 to 97·6) in group C (277 of 290 participants). Non-inferiority was shown for group B compared with group C (difference in rates -3·7; 95% CI -7·9 to 0·3), but not for group A compared with group C (-8·0; -12·7 to -3·6). 4 weeks after the second nOPV2 dose, type 2 neutralising antibodies increased in all three groups such that over 95% of each group was seroprotected against polio type 2, although final geometric mean titres tended to be highest with longer intervals between doses. Immunisation with nOPV2 was well tolerated with no causal association to vaccination of any severe or serious adverse event; one death from septic shock during the study was unrelated to the vaccine. INTERPRETATION: Two nOPV2 doses administered 1 week or 2 weeks apart from age 6 weeks to 8 weeks were safe and immunogenic. Immune responses after a 2-week interval were non-inferior to those after the standard 4-week interval, but marked responses after a 1-week interval suggest that schedules with an over 1-week interval can be used to provide flexibility to campaigns to improve coverage and hasten protection during circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Quantifying the relationship between arboviral infection prevalence and human mobility patterns among participants of the Communities Organized to Prevent Arboviruses cohort (COPA) in southern Puerto Rico
Phillips MT , Sánchez-González L , Shragai T , Rodriguez DM , Major CG , Johansson MA , Rivera-Amill V , Paz-Bailey G , Adams LE . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023 17 (12) e0011840 Human movement is increasingly being recognized as a major driver of arbovirus risk and dissemination. The Communities Organized to Prevent Arboviruses (COPA) study is a cohort in southern Puerto Rico to measure arboviral prevalence, evaluate interventions, and collect mobility data. To quantify the relationship between arboviral prevalence and human mobility patterns, we fit multilevel logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios for mobility-related predictors of positive chikungunya IgG or Zika IgM test results collected from COPA, assuming mobility data does not change substantially from year to year. From May 8, 2018-June 8, 2019, 39% of the 1,845 active participants during the study period had a positive arboviral seroprevalence result. Most (74%) participants reported spending five or more weekly hours outside of their home. A 1% increase in weekly hours spent outside the home was associated with a 4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2-7%) decrease in the odds of testing positive for arbovirus. After adjusting for age and whether a person had air conditioning (AC) at home, any time spent in a work location was protective against arbovirus infection (32% decrease, CI: 9-49%). In fact, there was a general decreased prevalence for individuals who visited locations that were inside and had AC or screens, regardless of the type of location (32% decrease, CI: 12-47%). In this population, the protective characteristics of locations visited appear to be the most important driver of the relationship between mobility and arboviral prevalence. This relationship indicates that not all mobility is the same, with elements like screens and AC providing protection in some locations. These findings highlight the general importance of AC and screens, which are known to be protective against mosquitoes and mosquito-transmitted diseases. |
One-year association of drug possession law change with fatal drug overdose in Oregon and Washington
Joshi S , Rivera BD , Cerdá M , Guy GP Jr , Strahan A , Wheelock H , Davis CS . JAMA Psychiatry 2023 IMPORTANCE: Two states modified laws to remove or substantially reduce criminal penalties for any drug possession. The hypothesis was that removing criminal penalties for drug possession may reduce fatal drug overdoses due to reduced incarceration and increased calls for help at the scene of an overdose. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether decriminalization of drug possession in Oregon and Washington was associated with changes in either direction in fatal drug overdose rates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study used a synthetic control method approach to examine whether there were changes in drug possession laws and fatal drug overdose rates in Oregon and Washington in the postpolicy period (February 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, in Oregon and March 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, in Washington). A counterfactual comparison group (synthetic controls) was created for Oregon and Washington, using 48 states and the District of Columbia, that did not implement similar policies during the study period (January 1, 2018, to March 31, 2022). For 2018-2021, final multiple cause-of-death data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) were used. For 2022, provisional NVSS data were used. Drug overdose deaths were identified using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision underlying cause-of-death codes X40-X44, X60-X64, X85, and Y10-Y14. EXPOSURES: In Oregon, Measure 110 went into effect on February 1, 2021. In Washington, the Washington Supreme Court decision in State v Blake occurred on February 25, 2021. MAIN OUTCOME: Monthly fatal drug overdose rates. RESULTS: Following the implementation of Measure 110, absolute monthly rate differences between Oregon and its synthetic control were not statistically significant (probability = 0.26). The average rate difference post Measure 110 was 0.268 fatal drug overdoses per 100 000 state population. Following the implementation of the policy change in Washington, the absolute monthly rate differences between Washington and synthetic Washington were not statistically significant (probability = 0.06). The average rate difference post Blake was 0.112 fatal drug overdoses per 100 000 state population. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study found no evidence of an association between legal changes that removed or substantially reduced criminal penalties for drug possession in Oregon and Washington and fatal drug overdose rates. Additional research could examine potential other outcomes as well as longer-term associations with fatal drug overdose overall and across racial and ethnic groups. |
The effect of age on Dengue presentation and the diagnostic accuracy of the 2015 Pan American Health Organization case criteria in a Puerto Rican cohort
Odio CD , Sánchez-González L , Delorey M , Adams LE , Jones ES , Lorenzi O , Munoz-Jordan J , Rivera-Amill V , Paz-Bailey G . Open Forum Infect Dis 2023 10 (8) ofad373 BACKGROUND: We evaluated dengue presentation by age, the performance of the 2015 Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) case criteria in identifying dengue cases, and variables to improve specificity. METHODS: Patients with fever ≤7 days (N = 10 408) were recruited from 2 emergency departments from May 2012 through December 2015. Serum samples were tested for dengue, chikungunya, and nasopharyngeal swabs for respiratory viruses. Smoothing splines assessed differences in the frequencies of signs/symptoms by age. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regressions identified the variables that best predicted dengue. RESULTS: Among 985 dengue cases, children aged <5 years were least likely to have leukopenia, but most likely to have rash and petechiae. Adults had the highest odds of aches/pains and headaches/retro-orbital pain. The 2015 PAHO criteria had sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 25%. Specificity could be improved by requiring at least 2 of the following criteria: vomiting/nausea, petechiae, rash, or leukopenia (specificity 68%, sensitivity 71%) or by using 2015 PAHO criteria plus either (1) aspartate aminotransferase >50 IU/L or platelet count <100 000 platelets/μL (specificity 81%, sensitivity 56%) or (2) itchy skin or absence of rhinorrhea or cough (specificity 51%, sensitivity 82%). CONCLUSIONS: The 2015 PAHO dengue case criteria had excellent sensitivity but poor specificity. This can be improved by adding signs/symptoms associated with dengue diagnosis. |
Travel-associated Dengue cases - United States, 2010-2021
Wong JM , Rivera A , Volkman HR , Torres-Velasquez B , Rodriguez DM , Paz-Bailey G , Adams LE . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (30) 821-826 Dengue, the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, can be fatal without appropriate treatment. Among 7,528 confirmed or probable travel-associated U.S. dengue cases reported during 2010-2021, one in five (1,474, 20%) was reported in 2019. This is 168% higher than the annual average number of cases reported during 2010-2018 and 2020-2021 (approximately 550 per year) and 61% higher than the 913 cases reported in 2016, the second highest year on record. The number of cases as a fraction of air traffic volume to international destinations outside North America or Europe was also highest in 2019, with 41.9 cases per million trips, compared with 21.0 per million in other years during 2010-2021. This report compares the number and characteristics of travel-associated dengue cases reported to national surveillance in the United States in 2019 with cases reported during 2010-2018 and 2020-2021. Areas with conditions suitable for dengue transmission as well as the population at risk for dengue are expected to increase, placing U.S. travelers at higher risk for infection. Health care providers should be aware that dengue is a common cause of fever in the returning traveler and be familiar with its signs and symptoms, testing, and management. Dengue vaccines are not currently recommended for U.S. travelers; therefore, persons should review areas of dengue risk and follow guidance for preventing mosquito bites. |
Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease (preprint)
Oidtman RJ , Omodei E , Kraemer MUG , Castañeda-Orjuela CA , Cruz-Rivera E , Misnaza-Castrillón S , Cifuentes MP , Rincon LE , Cañon V , Alarcon P , España G , Huber JH , Hill SC , Barker CM , Johansson MA , Manore CA , Reiner RC Jr , Rodriguez-Barraquer I , Siraj AS , Frias-Martinez E , García-Herranz M , Perkins TA . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.25.21252363 When new pathogens emerge, numerous questions arise about their future spread, some of which can be addressed with probabilistic forecasts. The many uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among model structures and assumptions, however. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance of a suite of 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about the role of human mobility in driving transmission, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of times the virus was introduced. All models used the same core transmission model and the same iterative data assimilation algorithm to generate forecasts. By assessing forecast performance through time using logarithmic scoring with ensemble weighting, we found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. In particular, spatially coupled models had higher ensemble weights in the early and late phases of the epidemic, whereas non-spatial models had higher ensemble weights at the peak of the epidemic. We compared forecast performance of the equally-weighted ensemble model to each individual model and identified a trade-off whereby certain individual models outperformed the ensemble model early in the epidemic but the ensemble model outperformed all individual models on average. On balance, our results suggest that suites of models that span uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts in the context of emerging infectious diseases.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementRJO acknowledges support from an Eck Institute for Global Health Fellowship, GLOBES grant, Arthur J. Schmitt Fellowship, and the UNICEF Office of Innovation. MUGK is supported by The Branco Weiss Fellowship - Society in Science, administered by the ETH Zurich and acknowledges funding from the Oxford Martin School and the European Union Horizon 2020 project MOOD (\#874850). SCH is supported by the Wellcome Trust (220414/Z/20/Z).Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:No IRB approvals were necessary.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesThe mobile phone data set used in this study is proprietary and subject to strict privacy regulations. The access to this data set was granted after reaching a non-disclosure agreement with the proprietor, who anonymized and aggregated the original data before giving access to the authors. The mobile phone is available on request after negotiation of a non-disclosure agreement with the company. The contact person is Enrique Frias-Martinez (efm{at}tid.es). Epidemiological, meteorological, and demographic data are available from Siraj et al.2018 and additionally available on https://github.com/roidtman/eid_ensemble_forecasting. https://www.github.com/roidtman/eid_ensemble_forecasting |
Divergent lineages of pathogenic Leptospira species are widespread and persisting in the environment in Puerto Rico, USA (preprint)
Stone NE , Hall CM , Ortiz M , Hutton S , Santana-Propper E , Celona KR , Williamson CHD , Bratsch N , Fernandes LGV , Busch JD , Pearson T , Rivera-Garcia S , Soltero F , Galloway R , Sahl JW , Nally JE , Wagner DM . medRxiv 2021 11 Background: Leptospirosis, caused by Leptospira bacteria, is a common zoonosis worldwide more prevalent in the tropics. Reservoir species and risk factors have been identified but surveys for environmental sources of leptospirosis are rare. Furthermore, understanding of environmental Leptospira containing pathogenic genes and possibly capable of causing disease is incomplete and could result in some pathogenic strains evading detection, thereby convoluting diagnosis, prevention, and epidemiology. Methodology/Principal Findings: We collected environmental samples from 22 sites in Puerto Rico during three sampling periods over 14-months (Dec 2018-Feb 2020); 10 water and 10 soil samples were collected at each site. Samples were screened for pathogenic Leptospira DNA using the lipL32 PCR assay and positive samples were sequenced to assess genetic diversity. One urban site in San Juan was sampled three times over 14 months to assess persistence in soil; live leptospires were obtained during the last sampling period. Isolates were whole genome sequenced and LipL32 expression was assessed in vitro. We detected pathogenic Leptospira DNA at 15/22 sites; both soil and water were positive at 5/15 sites. We recovered lipL32 sequences from 83/86 positive samples (15/15 positive sites) and secY sequences from 32/86 (10/15 sites); multiple genotypes were identified at 12 sites. These sequences revealed significant diversity across samples, including four novel lipL32 phylogenetic clades. Most samples from the serially sampled site were lipL32 positive at each time point. We sequenced the genomes of six saprophytic and two pathogenic Leptospira isolates; the latter represent a novel pathogenic Leptospira species likely belonging to a new serogroup. Conclusions/Significance: Diverse and novel pathogenic Leptospira are widespread in the environment in Puerto Rico. The disease potential of the novel lineages is unknown but several persisted for >1 year in soil, which could contaminate water. This work increases understanding of environmental Leptospira and should improve leptospirosis surveillance and diagnostics. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. |
SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity in households highlights the challenges of sequence-based transmission inference (preprint)
Bendall E , Paz-Bailey G , Santiago GA , Porucznik CA , Stanford JB , Stockwell MS , Duque J , Jeddy Z , Veguilla V , Major C , Rivera-Amill V , Rolfes MA , Dawood FS , Lauring AS . medRxiv 2022 10 (6) e0040022 Background: The reliability of sequence-based inference of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is not clear. Sequence data from infections among household members can define the expected genomic diversity of a virus along a defined transmission chain. Method(s): SARS-CoV-2 cases were identified prospectively among 2,369 participants in 706 households. Specimens with an RT-PCR cycle threshold <=30 underwent whole genome sequencing. Intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNV) were identified at >=5% frequency. Phylogenetic trees were used to evaluate the relationship of household and community sequences. Result(s): There were 178 SARS-CoV-2 cases in 706 households. Among 147 specimens sequenced, 106 yielded a whole genome consensus with coverage suitable for identifying iSNV. Twenty-six households had sequences from multiple cases within 14 days. Consensus sequences were indistinguishable among cases in 15 households, while 11 had >1 consensus that differed by 1-2 mutations. Sequences from households and the community were often interspersed on phylogenetic trees. Identification of iSNV improved inference in 2 of 15 households with indistinguishable consensus sequences and 6 of 11 with distinct ones. Conclusion(s): In multiple infection households, whole genome consensus sequences differed by 0-1 mutations. Identification of shared iSNV occasionally resolved linkage, but the low genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 limits the utility of "sequence-only" transmission inference. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. |
Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Puerto Rico reveals emergence of an autochthonous lineage and early detection of variants (preprint)
Santiago GA , Flores B , Gonzalez GL , Charriez KN , Cora-Huertas L , Volkman HR , Van Belleghem S , Rivera-Amill V , Adams LE , Marzan M , Hernandez L , Cardona I , O'Neill E , Paz-Bailey G , Papa R , Munoz-Jordan JL . Res Sq 2022 Puerto Rico has experienced the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was first detected on the island in March of 2020, it spread rapidly though the island’s population and became a critical threat to public health. We conducted a genomic surveillance study through a partnership with health agencies and academic institutions to understand the emergence and molecular epidemiology of the virus on the island. We sampled COVID-19 cases monthly over 19 months and sequenced a total of 753 SARS-CoV-2 genomes between March 2020 and September 2021 to reconstruct the local epidemic in a regional context using phylogenetic inference. Our analyses revealed that multiple importation events propelled the emergence and spread of the virus throughout the study period, including the introduction and spread of most SARS-CoV-2 variants detected world-wide. Lineage turnover cycles through various phases of the local epidemic were observed, where the predominant lineage was replaced by the next competing lineage or variant after approximately 4 months of circulation locally. We also identified the emergence of lineage B.1.588, an autochthonous lineage that predominated circulation in Puerto Rico from September to December 2020 and subsequently spread to the United States. The results of this collaborative approach highlight the importance of timely collection and analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance data to inform public health responses. |
Addressing the challenges of implementing evidence-based prioritisation in global health
Hayman DTS , Barraclough RK , Muglia LJ , McGovern V , Afolabi MO , N'Jai AU , Ambe JR , Atim C , McClelland A , Paterson B , Ijaz K , Lasley J , Ahsan Q , Garfield R , Chittenden K , Phelan AL , Lopez Rivera A . BMJ Glob Health 2023 8 (6) Global health requires evidence-based approaches to improve health and decrease inequalities. In a roundtable discussion between health practitioners, funders, academics and policy-makers, we recognised key areas for improvement to deliver better-informed, sustainable and equitable global health practices. These focus on considering information-sharing mechanisms and developing evidence-based frameworks that take an adaptive function-based approach, grounded in the ability to perform and respond to prioritised needs. Increasing social engagement as well as sector and participant diversity in whole-of-society decision-making, and collaborating with and optimising on hyperlocal and global regional entities, will improve prioritisation of global health capabilities. Since the skills required to navigate drivers of pandemics, and the challenges in prioritising, capacity building and response do not sit squarely in the health sector, it is essential to integrate expertise from a broad range of fields to maximise on available knowledge during decision-making and system development. Here, we review the current assessment tools and provide seven discussion points for how improvements to implementation of evidence-based prioritisation can improve global health. |
Previous dengue infection among children in Puerto Rico and implications for Dengue vaccine implementation
Adams LE , Hitchings MDT , Medina FA , Rodriguez DM , Sánchez-González L , Moore H , Whitehead SS , Muñoz-Jordán JL , Rivera-Amill V , Paz-Bailey G . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2023 109 (2) 413-419 Limited dengue virus (DENV) seroprevalence estimates are available for Puerto Rico, which are needed to inform the potential use and cost-effectiveness of DENV vaccines. The Communities Organized to Prevent Arboviruses (COPA) is a cohort study initiated in 2018 in Ponce, Puerto Rico, to assess arboviral disease risk and provide a platform to evaluate interventions. We recruited participants from households in 38 study clusters, who were interviewed and provided a serum specimen. Specimens from 713 children aged 1 to 16 years during the first year of COPA were tested for the four DENV serotypes and ZIKV using a focus reduction neutralization assay. We assessed the seroprevalence of DENV and ZIKV by age and developed a catalytic model from seroprevalence and dengue surveillance data to estimate the force of infection for DENV during 2003-2018. Overall, 37% (n = 267) were seropositive for DENV; seroprevalence was 9% (11/128) among children aged 1 to 8 years and 44% (256/585) among children aged 9 to 16 years, exceeding the threshold over which DENV vaccination is deemed cost-effective. A total of 33% were seropositive for ZIKV, including 15% among children aged 0 to 8 years and 37% among children aged 9 to 16 years. The highest force of infection occurred in 2007, 2010, and 2012-2013, with low levels of transmission from 2016 to 2018. A higher proportion of children had evidence of multitypic DENV infection than expected, suggesting high heterogeneity in DENV risk in this setting. |
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