Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2(nd) most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5(th) most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

BACKGROUND: Diversity is a key component of diet quality and health, but no indicator exists for adolescents under the age of 15 years. OBJECTIVE: To establish a dichotomous indicator for population-level assessment of adolescent dietary diversity as a proxy for micronutrient adequacy. METHODS: We used the probability approach to construct mean probability of adequacy (MPA) of 11 micronutrients from 2 days of 24-hour dietary recall data from NHANES, 2007-2018. For each micronutrient, probability of adequacy was calculated using the best linear unbiased predictor of usual intake. Adolescent dietary diversity score (ADDS) was derived with a maximum score of 10 food groups. Generalized linear mixed models were used to examine associations between ADDS and MPA. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to establish a cutoff for minimum dietary diversity for adolescents (MDD-A), using an energy-adjusted logistic model with ADDS predicting MPA > 0.6. RESULTS: Probability of adequacy was greater than 80% for all nutrients except vitamin C (42.1%), folate (65.7%), and calcium (23.8%). Population MPA was 79.4%, and nearly 92% of adolescents had an MPA > 0.6. ADDS was positively associated with MPA, and energy was a significant confounder. Area under the curve was > 0.8 on both days with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 0.71-0.80. The MDD-A cutoff was calculated as 5.12 and 5.10 food groups on day 1 and 2, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In U.S. adolescents, the best cutoff for a dichotomous indicator of dietary diversity as a proxy for micronutrient adequacy is 6 food groups in a given day. Future research could validate MDD-A and its associated cutoff for use across country contexts.

OBJECTIVES: To examine US in-hospital exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) and the associations with Baby-Friendly designation and neighborhood sociodemographic factors. METHODS: Hospital data from the 2018 Maternity Practices in Infant Nutrition and Care survey were linked to hospital zip code tabulation area (ZCTA) sociodemographic data from the 2014-2018 American Community Survey (n = 2,024). The percentages of residents in the hospital ZCTA were dichotomized based on the relative mean percentage of the hospital's metropolitan area, which were exposure variables (high/low Black hospitals, high/low poverty hospitals, high/low educational attainment hospitals) along with Baby-Friendly designation. Using linear regression, we examined the associations and effect measure modification between Baby-Friendly designation and hospital sociodemographic factors with in-hospital EBF prevalence. RESULTS: US mean in-hospital EBF prevalence was 55.1%. Baby-Friendly designation was associated with 9.1% points higher in-hospital EBF prevalence compared to non-designated hospitals [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.0, 11.2]. High Black hospitals and high poverty hospitals were associated with lower EBF prevalence (difference= -3.3; 95% CI: -5.1, -1.4 and - 3.8; 95% CI: -5.7, -1.8). High educational attainment hospitals were associated with higher EBF prevalence (difference = 6.7; 95% CI: 4.1, 9.4). Baby-Friendly designation was associated with significant effect measure modification of the in-hospital EBF disparity attributed to neighborhood level poverty (4.0% points higher in high poverty/Baby-Friendly designated hospitals than high poverty/non-Baby-Friendly designated hospitals).

In October 2020, the CDC's Vaccinate with Confidence strategy specific to COVID-19 vaccines rollout was published. Adapted from an existing vaccine confidence framework for childhood immunization, the Vaccinate with Confidence strategy for COVID-19 aimed to improve vaccine confidence, demand, and uptake of COVID-19 vaccines in the US. The objectives for COVID-19 were to 1. build trust, 2. empower healthcare personnel, and 3. engage communities and individuals. This strategy was implemented through a dedicated unit, the Vaccine Confidence and Demand (VCD) team, which collected behavioral insights; developed and disseminated toolkits and best practices in collaboration with partners; and collaborated with health departments and community-based organizations to engage communities and individuals in behavioral interventions to strengthen vaccine demand and increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake. The VCD team collected and used social and behavioral data through establishing the Insights Unit, implementing rapid community assessments, and conducting national surveys. To strengthen capacity at state and local levels, the VCD utilized "Bootcamps," a rapid training of trainers on vaccine confidence and demand, "Confidence Consults", where local leaders could request tailored advice to address local vaccine confidence challenges from subject matter experts, and utilized surge staffing to embed "Vaccine Demand Strategists" in state and local public health agencies. In addition, collaborations with Prevention Research Centers, the Institute of Museum and Library Services, and the American Psychological Association furthered work in behavioral science, community engagement, and health equity. The VCD team operationalized CDC's COVID-19 Vaccine with Confidence strategy through behavioral insights, capacity building opportunities, and collaborations to improve COVID-19 vaccine confidence, demand, and uptake in the US. The inclusion of applied behavioral science approaches were a critical component of the COVID-19 vaccination program and provides lessons learned for how behavioral science can be integrated in future emergency responses.

OBJECTIVES: To assess postmortem vitamin A (VA) concentrations in children under 5 years of age and evaluate the association between vitamin A deficiency (VAD) and infectious causes of death (CoD). STUDY DESIGN: In this cross-sectional study from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network, liver biopsies collected within 72 hours of death were analyzed from 405 stillbirths and children under 5 years in Kenya and South Africa. Total liver vitamin A (VA) concentrations were quantified using ultra-performance liquid chromatography, and cutoffs of ≤0.1 μmol/g, >0.1 to <0.7 μmol/g, ≥0.7 to <1.0 μmol/g, and ≥1.0 μmol/g were used to define VAD, adequate VA status, high VA, and hypervitaminosis A, respectively. Causes of death (CoD) were determined by expert panel review. RESULTS: Among 366 liver samples with viable extraction, pooled prevalences of VAD, adequacy, high VA, and hypervitaminosis were 34.2%, 51.1%, 6.0%, and 8.7%, respectively. VAD was more common among neonates compared with stillbirths, infants, or children, and among those with low birthweight, underweight, or stunting (p<0.05). When adjusting for site, age, and sex, there was no significant association of VAD with increased infectious CoD (OR 1.9, 95%CI 0.9, 3.8, p=0.073). In stratified analyses, VA deficient boys, but not girls, had an increased risk of infectious CoD (OR 3.4, 95%CI 1.3, 10.3, p=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Definitive post-mortem assessment of VA status identified both VAD and VA excess among children under 5 years of age in Kenya and South Africa. VAD in boys was associated with increased risk of infectious mortality. Our findings may inform a transition from universal VA supplementation to targeted strategies in certain countries.

Objective: The aim of this study is to examine in-hospital exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) and its association with sociodemographic factors, medical factors, breastfeeding intentions, and health care system breastfeeding support. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study using medical records from 2015 to 2019 of healthy term infants without breastfeeding contraindications at a public teaching hospital serving a racially and ethnically diverse patient population. Using multivariable regression analysis, we examined the associations between in-hospital EBF and sociodemographic factors, medical factors, breastfeeding intentions, and health care system breastfeeding support (in-hospital breastfeeding education and lactation support). Results: The prevalence of in-hospital EBF was 29.0%. The statistically significant findings from our fully adjusted regression analysis include that there was a higher prevalence of in-hospital EBF among adult mothers (prevalence ratio [PR]: range 1.78-1.96), married mothers (PR: 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-1.44), and mothers who were White (PR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.20-1.66, compared with Black). Factors associated with a lower prevalence of in-hospital EBF were maternal diabetes (PR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.70-0.95), pre-eclampsia/eclampsia (PR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.71-0.95), cesarean delivery (PR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.77-0.92), neonatal hypoglycemia (PR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.36-0.59), and intention in the prenatal period to formula feed only (PR: 0.15, 95% CI: 0.10-0.22). In-hospital lactation support was associated with higher prevalence of in-hospital EBF (PR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.16-1.33). Conclusions: Prioritizing lactation support for Black mothers, adolescent mothers, those intending in the prenatal period to formula feed only, and mother-infant dyads with certain medical factors could improve in-hospital EBF.

INTRODUCTION: Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is a significant cause of maternal mortality worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. It is essential to develop effective prediction models to identify women at risk of PPH and implement appropriate interventions to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. This study aims to predict the occurrence of postpartum hemorrhage using machine learning models based on antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal visit data obtained from the Kenya Antenatal and Postnatal Care Research Collective cohort. METHOD: Four machine learning models - logistic regression, naïve Bayes, decision tree, and random forest - were constructed using 67% training data (1,056/1,576). The training data was further split into 67% for model building and 33% cross validation. Once the models are built, the remaining 33% (520/1,576) independent test data was used for external validation to confirm the models' performance. Models were fine-tuned using feature selection through extra tree classifier technique. Model performance was assessed using accuracy, sensitivity, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. RESULT: The naïve Bayes model performed best with 0.95 accuracy, 0.97 specificity, and 0.76 AUC. Seven factors (anemia, limited prenatal care, hemoglobin concentrations, signs of pallor at intrapartum, intrapartum systolic blood pressure, intrapartum diastolic blood pressure, and intrapartum respiratory rate) were associated with PPH prediction in Kenyan population. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrates the potential of machine learning models in predicting PPH in the Kenyan population. Future studies with larger datasets and more PPH cases should be conducted to improve prediction performance of machine learning model. Such prediction algorithms would immensely help to construct a personalized obstetric path for each pregnant patient, improve resource allocation, and reduce maternal mortality and morbidity.

BACKGROUND: Although the importance of adolescent nutrition has gained attention in the global nutrition community, there is a gap in research focused on adolescent dietary diversity and food group consumption. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to characterize population-level food group consumption patterns and quantify the extent of dietary diversity among United States adolescents using a large nationally representative sample of adolescents aged 10-19 y. METHODS: We used 24-h dietary recall data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2007 to 2018 to construct the 10 food groups comprising the minimum dietary diversity for women (MDD-W) indicator and estimated the prevalence of intake of each food group. A composite metric adolescent dietary diversity score (ADDS) was derived for each adolescent where 1 point was awarded per food group. Both population scores and the distribution of individual scores were estimated. Differences in proportions of food groups consumed across sociodemographic categories were tested using the Rao-Scott χ(2) test, and pairwise comparisons were expressed as population prevalence differences and prevalence ratios. RESULTS: Food group consumption patterns were very similar across 2 d of dietary recall but varied significantly by sex, race/ethnicity, and income status. The food groups with the highest prevalence of consumption were grains, white, roots, and tubers (∼99%), milk products (∼92%), and meat, poultry, and fish (∼85%), whereas <15% of adolescents consumed key micronutrient-dense foods, such as vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables and dark green vegetables. The mean ADDS was 4.69, with modest variation across strata. CONCLUSIONS: On average, United States youth consumed fewer than 5 food groups on a given day. The lack of dietary variety and relatively low prevalence of consumption of several micronutrient-rich plant-based foods could pose a risk for adolescents' ability to achieve micronutrient adequacy in the United States.

BACKGROUND: In-hospital exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) is associated with longer breastfeeding durations, yet only 64% of US newborns are EBF for 7 days. The Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding (Ten Steps) are a set of evidenced-based maternity practices shown to improve breastfeeding outcomes; these were updated in 2018. METHODS: Using hospital-level data from the 2018 Maternity Practices in Infant Nutrition and Care Survey (n = 2045 hospitals), we examined the prevalence of implementation of Ten Steps indicators (each step and total number of steps implemented). Using linear regression, we also examined the association between the steps and EBF prevalence adjusted for hospital characteristics and all other steps. Discharge support was not included in the models since it primarily occurs after hospital discharge. RESULTS: The most frequently implemented step was the provision of prenatal breastfeeding education (95.6%). Steps with low implementation included rooming-in (18.9%), facility policies supportive of breastfeeding (23.4%), and limited formula supplementation (28.2%). After adjusting for hospital characteristics and all other steps, limited formula supplementation (difference = 14.4: 95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.6, 16.1), prenatal breastfeeding education (difference = 7.0; 95% CI: 3.3, 10.8), responsive feeding (difference = 6.3; 95% CI: 3.7, 9.0), care right after birth (skin-to-skin; difference = 5.8; 95% CI: 4.2, 7.4), and rooming-in (difference = 2.4; 95% CI: 0.4, 4.6) were associated with higher in-hospital EBF prevalence. We found a dose-response relationship between the number of steps implemented and in-hospital EBF prevalence. CONCLUSION: Increased implementation of the updated Ten Steps may improve EBF and infant and maternal health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Stunting affects >20% of children <5 years old worldwide and disproportionately impacts underserved communities. The Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study examined the association between an episode of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and the risk of subsequent stunting in children <5 years living in 3 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: In this prospective, matched, case-control study among children <5 years, data were collected over 36 months from 2 groups. "Children with MSD" visited a health center within 7 days of illness onset experiencing ≥3 loose stools/day plus sunken eyes, poor skin turgor, dysentery, intravenous rehydration, or hospitalization. "Children without MSD" were enrolled from the community within 14 days of the index MSD child; they were diarrhea-free during the previous 7 days and were matched to the index case by age, sex, and residence. Using generalized linear mixed-effects models, we estimated the effect of an MSD episode on odds of being stunted, defined as height-for-age z-scores <-2, at a follow-up visit 2-3 months post-enrollment. RESULTS: The proportion of stunting at enrollment was similar when 4603 children with MSD and 5976 children without MSD were compared (21.8% vs 21.3%; P = .504). Among children not stunted at enrollment, those with MSD had 30% higher odds of being stunted at follow-up than children without MSD after controlling for age, sex, study site, and socioeconomic status (adjusted OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.05-1.62: P = .018). CONCLUSIONS: Children <5 years in sub-Saharan Africa without stunting experienced an increased likelihood of stunting during 2-3 months following an episode of MSD. Strategies for control of early childhood diarrhea should be integrated into programs intended to reduce childhood stunting.

BACKGROUND: Studies conducted before rotavirus vaccine introduction found that moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children aged <5 years was associated with stunting at follow-up. It is unknown whether the reduction in rotavirus-associated MSD following vaccine introduction decreased the risk of stunting. METHODS: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) and the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) study, two comparable matched case-control studies, were conducted during 2007-2011 and 2015-2018, respectively. We analyzed data from 3 African sites where rotavirus vaccine was introduced after GEMS and before starting VIDA. Children with acute MSD (<7 days onset) were enrolled from a health center and children without MSD (diarrhea-free for ≥7 days) were enrolled at home within 14 days of the index MSD case. The odds of being stunted at a follow-up visit 2-3 months after enrollment for an episode of MSD was compared between GEMS and VIDA using mixed-effects logistic regression models controlling for age, sex, study site, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 8808 children from GEMS and 10 579 from VIDA. Among those who were not stunted at enrollment in GEMS, 8.6% with MSD and 6.4% without MSD became stunted during the follow-up period. In VIDA, 8.0% with MSD and 5.5% children without MSD developed stunting. An episode of MSD was associated with higher odds of being stunted at follow-up compared with children without MSD in both studies (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.64 in GEMS and aOR, 1.30; 95% CI: 1.04-1.61 in VIDA). However, the magnitude of association was not significantly different between GEMS and VIDA (P = .965). CONCLUSIONS: The association of MSD with subsequent stunting among children aged <5 years in sub-Saharan Africa did not change after rotavirus vaccine introduction. Focused strategies are needed for prevention of specific diarrheal pathogens that cause childhood stunting.

BACKGROUND: The association between childhood diarrheal disease and linear growth faltering in developing countries is well described. However, the impact attributed to specific pathogens has not been elucidated, nor has the impact of recommended antibiotic treatment. METHODS: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study enrolled children with moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) seeking healthcare at 7 sites in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. At enrollment, we collected stool samples to identify enteropathogens. Length/height was measured at enrollment and follow-up, approximately 60 days later, to calculate change in height-for-age z scores (ΔHAZ). The association of pathogens with ΔHAZ was tested using linear mixed effects regression models. RESULTS: Among 8077 MSD cases analyzed, the proportion with stunting (HAZ below -1) increased from 59% at enrollment to 65% at follow-up (P < .0001). Pathogens significantly associated with linear growth decline included Cryptosporidium (P < .001), typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (P = .01), and untreated Shigella (P = .009) among infants (aged 0-11 months) and enterotoxigenic E. coli encoding heat-stable toxin (P < .001) and Cryptosporidium (P = .03) among toddlers (aged 12-23 months). Shigella-infected toddlers given antibiotics had improved linear growth (P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Linear growth faltering among children aged 0-23 months with MSD is associated with specific pathogens and can be mitigated with targeted treatment strategies, as demonstrated for Shigella.

In-hospital infant formula supplementation of breastfed infants reduces breastfeeding duration, yet little is known about common reasons for infant formula supplementation. We examined the three most common reasons for in-hospital infant formula supplementation of healthy, term, breastfed infants in the US reported by hospital staff. Hospital data were obtained from the 2018 Maternity Practices in Infant Nutrition and Care survey (n = 2045), which is completed by hospital staff. An open-ended question on the top three reasons for in-hospital infant formula supplementation was analyzed using thematic qualitative analysis and the frequencies for each reason were reported. The top three most common reasons for in-hospital infant formula supplementation reported by hospital staff included medical indications (70.0%); maternal request/preference/feelings (55.9%); lactation management-related issues (51.3%); physical but non-medically indicated reasons (36.1%); social influences (18.8%); perceived cultural/societal/demographic factors (8.2%) and medical staff/institutional practices (4.7%). These findings suggest that a variety of factors should be considered to address unnecessary infant formula supplementation. Lactation management support delivered in a timely and culturally sensitive manner and targeted to mother-infant dyads with potential medical and physical indications may reduce unnecessary in-hospital infant formula supplementation.

BACKGROUND: To address the burden of anemia in adolescent girls in Ghana, the Girls' Iron-Folate Tablet Supplementation (GIFTS) program was established in 2017. An evaluation found that although iron and folic acid (IFA) supplementation reached nearly all adolescent girls in schools during year 1, most girls received fewer than the minimum effective number of tablets over the school year. Barrier analyses highlighted schools as drivers of adherence, though information was incomplete on the reasons for the disparities among schools. Information was also lacking on the implementation of health and nutrition education. OBJECTIVES: At the start of year 3 of an integrated adolescent anemia prevention program with IFA supplementation, the present study sought to illuminate differences in program fidelity among schools and across time and potential factors that drive such differences. METHODS: After stratifying by school level, size, geographic location, and intake adherence during year 1, 16 schools were purposively selected. For each school, semistructured key informant interviews were conducted with 1 coordinator at the district level, 3 educators at the school level, and 1 parent leader. Following thematic analysis methods, recorded and transcribed interviews were coded and organized into deductive and inductive themes. RESULTS: Limited training, challenges during distribution of IFA, lack of incentives, and inconsistent health and nutrition education diminished program fidelity. Strong supply chain, widespread awareness promotion, improved acceptability, and intrinsically motivated educators improved program fidelity. After 2 y of implementation, schools had made program adaptations, and widespread changes in attitudes and beliefs about the IFA tablets had improved their acceptability. However, limitations remained related to supply chain, program ownership, communication between health and education sectors, training, motivation, and resources. CONCLUSIONS: The fidelity of Ghana's GIFTS program is strengthened by its supply chain, acceptability, and motivated stakeholders; however, training, curricula, clear communication, and incentives could improve it.

BACKGROUND: School-based iron and folic acid (IFA) supplementation is recommended for adolescent girls in countries with high burdens of anemia. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the context-specific effectiveness of a school-based, integrated anemia control program with IFA supplementation in Ghana. METHODS: Using data from a pre-post, longitudinal program evaluation, we evaluated the effectiveness of school-based weekly IFA supplementation in reducing the burden of anemia and increasing hemoglobin concentrations (Hb; primary outcomes) in 2 regions of Ghana. Generalized linear mixed effects models with schools (clusters) as random effects were used to quantify the change in the anemia prevalence and the mean Hb associated with cumulative IFA tablet consumption over 1 school year (30-36 weeks), controlling for participant-level potential confounders. A cut point for minimum effective cumulative IFA consumption that is reflective of adequate Hb was derived following logistic regression. This cut point was verified by a restricted cubic spline model of IFA consumption and Hb. RESULTS: The analytical sample included 60 schools and 1387 girls ages 10-19 years. The prevalence of anemia declined during 1 school year of the intervention, from 25.1% to 19.6% (P = 0.001). Students consumed a mean of 16.4 IFA tablets (range, 0-36). IFA consumption was positively associated with Hb and negatively associated with anemia. Each additional IFA tablet consumed over the school year was associated with a 5% (95% CI, 1-10%) reduction in the adjusted odds of anemia at follow-up, though the relationship is nonlinear. The cut point for minimum effective consumption was 26.7 tablets over a 30-36-week school year, with tablets provided weekly. CONCLUSIONS: School-based weekly IFA supplementation is effective in improving Hb and reducing the anemia prevalence among schoolgirls in Ghana, though most participants consumed fewer than the minimum effective number of IFA tablets. Increasing intake adherence may further improve anemia outcomes in this population.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is a moderate public health problem among adolescent girls in Ghana. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the barriers to and facilitators of program fidelity to a school-based anemia reduction program with weekly iron and folic acid (IFA) supplementation. METHODS: Authors analyzed directly observed weekly IFA consumption data collected longitudinally and cross-sectional data from a representative survey of 60 secondary schools and 1387 adolescent girls in the Northern and Volta regions of Ghana after 1 school year (2017-2018) of the intervention (30-36 wk). A bottleneck analysis was used to characterize the levels of IFA coverage and used adjusted generalized linear mixed-effects models to quantify the school and student drivers of IFA intake adherence. RESULTS: Of girls, 90% had ever consumed the tablet, whereas 56% had consumed ≥15 weekly tablets (mean: 16.4, range: 0-36), indicating average intake adherence was about half of the available tablets. Among ever consumers, 88% of girls liked the tablet, and 27% reported undesirable changes (primarily heavy menstrual flow). School-level factors represented 75% of the variance in IFA consumption over the school year. Total IFA tablets consumed was associated with the ability to make up missed IFA distributions (+1.4 tablets; 95% CI: +0.8, +2.0 tablets), junior compared with senior secondary school (+5.8; 95% CI: +0.1, +11.5), educators' participating in a program-related training (+7.6; 95% CI: +2.9, 12.2), and educator perceptions that implementation was difficult (-6.9; 95% CI: -12.1, -1.7) and was an excessive time burden (-4.4; 95% CI: -8.4, -0.4). CONCLUSIONS: Although the program reached Ghanaian schoolgirls, school-level factors were barriers to adherence. Modifications such as expanded training, formalized make-up IFA distributions, sensitization (awareness promotion), and additional support to senior high schools may improve adherence. Spreading the responsibility for IFA distribution to other teachers and streamlining monitoring may reduce the burden at the school level. Strengthening the health education component and improving knowledge of IFA among students may also be beneficial.

Anaemia is a public health problem in Ghana. We sought to identify factors associated with haemoglobin concentration (Hb) and anaemia among school-attending adolescents. We analysed data from 2948 adolescent girls and 609 boys (10-19 years) selected from 115 schools from regions of Ghana as a secondary analysis of baseline surveys conducted at two time-points. We measured Hb, malaria from capillary blood, anthropometry and used a modified food frequency questionnaire to assess diet. Multivariable linear and Poisson regression models were used to identify predictors of Hb and anaemia. The prevalence of anaemia, malaria and geophagy were 24, 25, and 24 %, respectively, among girls and 13, 27 and 6 %, respectively, among boys. Girls engaging in geophagy had a 53 % higher adjusted prevalence of anaemia and 0⋅39 g/dl lower Hb. There were similar results among those who tested positive for malaria (+52 % anaemia; -0⋅42 g/dl Hb). Among girls, lower anaemia prevalence and higher Hb were associated with consumption of foods rich in haeme iron (-22 %; +0⋅18 g/dl), consumption of iron-fortified cereal/beverages consumed with citrus (-50 %; +0⋅37 g/dl) and being overweight (-22 %; +0⋅22 g/dl). Age was positively associated with anaemia among girls, but negatively associated among boys. Boys who tested positive for malaria had 0⋅31 g/dl lower Hb. Boys who were overweight or had obesity and consumed flour products were also more likely to be anaemic (119 and 56 %, respectively). Factors associated with Hb and anaemia may inform anaemia reduction interventions among school-going adolescents and suggest the need to tailor them uniquely for boys and girls.

BACKGROUND: In low-resource settings, urbanization may contribute to the individual-level double burden of malnutrition (DBM), whereby under- and overnutrition co-occur within the same individuals. OBJECTIVE: We described DBM prevalence among Malawian women by urban-rural residence, examined whether urban residence was associated with DBM, and assessed whether DBM prevalence was greater than the prevalence expected by chance given population levels of under- and overnutrition, which would suggest DBM is a distinct phenomenon associated with specific factors. METHODS: We analyzed nationally representative data of 723 nonpregnant women aged 15-49 y from the 2015-2016 Malawi Micronutrient Survey. DBM was defined as co-occurring overweight or obesity (OWOB) and >/=1 micronutrient deficiency or anemia. We used Poisson regression models to examine the association between urban residence and DBM and its components. The Rao-Scott modified chi-square test compared the observed and expected DBM prevalence. RESULTS: Nationally, 10.8% (95% CI: 7.0, 14.5) of women had co-occurring OWOB and any micronutrient deficiency and 3.4% (95% CI: 1.3, 5.5) had co-occurring OWOB and anemia. The prevalence of co-occurring OWOB and any micronutrient deficiency was 2 times higher among urban women than rural women [urban 32.6 (24.1, 41.2) compared with rural 8.6 (5.2, 11.9), adjusted prevalence ratio: 2.0 (1.1, 3.5)]. Co-occurring OWOB and anemia prevalence did not significantly differ by residence [urban 6.9 (0.6, 13.2) compared with rural 3.0 (0.8, 5.3)]. There were no statistically significant differences in observed and expected prevalence estimates of DBM. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis shows that co-occurring OWOB and any micronutrient deficiency was higher among women in urban Malawi compared with rural areas. However, our finding that co-occurring OWOB and any micronutrient deficiency or anemia may be due to chance suggests that there may not be common causes driving DBM in Malawian women. Thus, there may not be a need to design and target interventions specifically for women with DBM.

BACKGROUND: For persons with HIV infection (PWH), viral load suppression is essential to maintaining health and reducing the likelihood of HIV transmission. Data to Care (D2C) is an important strategy for improving HIV outcomes but may be resource-intensive to execute. SETTING: In 2016, Michigan joined the HIV Health Improvement Affinity Group to strengthen D2C partnerships between its Medicaid and HIV program. Goals included establishing routine data sharing, matching data sources to understand health outcomes, and collaborating to turn data into action. METHODS: Michigan established data use agreements to assess gaps in care for PWH enrolled in Medicaid. The HIV Surveillance Program used Link Plus to match surveillance records on PWH to Medicaid's active beneficiary file to identify PWH who were beneficiaries as of December 31, 2015. RESULTS: Matching the 2,300,877 Michigan Medicaid beneficiaries with the 15,845 PWH in HIV surveillance yielded 4822 matched PWH enrolled in Medicaid in 2015. Of Medicaid beneficiaries with HIV, 597 had no evidence of receiving HIV care, representing 20% of all Michigan residents with HIV and not in care in 2015. CONCLUSION: D2C is an effective strategy for improving HIV care continuum outcomes but can be relatively inefficient if implementation models rely solely on public health infrastructure. Through the HIV Health Improvement Affinity Group, Michigan's Medicaid and HIV programs leveraged their combined data assets to evaluate and improve care quality and outcomes for PWH on Medicaid. Partnerships between Medicaid and public health offer attractive mechanisms for potentially increasing efficiency and effectiveness of D2C investments.

BACKGROUND: Adult and adolescent vaccination rates are far below coverage targets in the United States. Our objective was to identify the most influential factors related to vaccine uptake among adults, adolescents, and parents of adolescents (parents) in the United States. METHODS: We used a fractional factorial design to create a binary choice survey to evaluate preferences for vaccination. The national survey was fielded to a sample of adults, adolescents ages 13-17 years, and parents, using a national probability-based online research panel in November 2015. Respondents were presented with 5 profiles of a hypothetical vaccine and asked in a series of questions whether they would accept each vaccine. We analyzed the binary choice data using logistic regression in STATA v13 (College Station, TX) to calculate the odds that a participant would choose to accept the vaccine. RESULTS: We received completed responses from 334 (51%) of 652 adults, 316 (21%) of 1516 adolescents, and 339 (33%) of 1030 parents. Respondents were generally representative of the U.S. POPULATION: Vaccine effectiveness was the most influential factor in the choice to vaccinate for all groups. Other most influential factors were primary care provider (PCP) recommendation and the out-of-pocket cost of the vaccine. Other factors such as risk of illness, risk of vaccine side effects, vaccination location, and time for vaccination were not important in the decision to get vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: Adults, adolescents, and parents are most sensitive to vaccine effectiveness, PCP recommendation, and out-of-pocket cost for vaccination in their decision to get vaccinated. Strong PCP recommendations that focus on vaccine effectiveness and health care policies that minimize out-of-pocket costs for vaccinations may increase vaccine uptake by adults and adolescents.

INTRODUCTION: Experimental Ebola vaccines were introduced during the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Planning for the Sierra Leone Trial to Introduce a Vaccine against Ebola (STRIVE) was underway in late 2014. We examined hypothetical acceptability and perceptions of experimental Ebola vaccines among health care workers (HCWs), frontline workers, and the general public to guide ethical communication of risks and benefits of any experimental Ebola vaccine. METHODS: Between December 2014 and January 2015, we conducted in-depth interviews with public health leaders (N=31), focus groups with HCWs and frontline workers (N=20), and focus groups with members of the general public (N=15) in Western Area Urban, Western Area Rural, Port Loko, Bombali, and Tonkolili districts. Themes were identified using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: Across all participant groups, not knowing the immediate and long-term effects of an experimental Ebola vaccine was the most serious concern. Some respondents feared that experimental vaccines may cause Ebola, lead to death, or result in other adverse events. Among HCWs, not knowing the level of protection provided by experimental Ebola vaccines was another concern. HCWs and frontline workers were motivated to help find a vaccine for Ebola to help end the outbreak. General public participants cited positive experiences with routine childhood immunization in Sierra Leone. DISCUSSION: Our formative assessment prior to STRIVE's implementation in Sierra Leone helped identify concerns, motivations, and information gaps among potential participants of an experimental Ebola vaccine trial, at the time when an unprecedented outbreak was occurring in the country. The findings from this assessment were incorporated early in the process to guide ethical communication of risks and benefits when discussing informed consent for possible participation in the vaccine trial that was launched later in 2015.

Since 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015-2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal peak intensity and short-term forecasts, while forecast skill for timing of season onset and peak week was generally low. Higher forecast skill was associated with team participation in previous influenza forecasting challenges and utilization of ensemble forecasting techniques. The mean ensemble consistently performed well and outperformed historical trend predictions. CDC and contributing teams will continue to advance influenza forecasting and work to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts to facilitate increased incorporation into public health response efforts.

The usefulness of anthropometry to define childhood malnutrition is undermined by poor measurement quality, which led to calls for new measurement approaches. We evaluated the ability of a 3D imaging system to correctly measure child stature (length or height), head circumference and arm circumference. In 2016-7 we recruited and measured children at 20 facilities in and around metro Atlanta, Georgia, USA; including at daycare, higher education, religious, and medical facilities. We selected recruitment sites to reflect a generally representative population of Atlanta and to oversample newborns and children under two years of age. Using convenience sampling, a total of 474 children 0-5 years of age who were apparently healthy and who were present at the time of data collection were included in the analysis. Two anthropometrists each took repeated manual measures and repeated 3D scans of each child. We evaluated the reliability and accuracy of 3D scan-derived measurements against manual measurements. The mean child age was 26 months, and 48% of children were female. Based on reported race and ethnicity, the sample was 42% Black, 28% White, 8% Asian, 21% multiple races, other or race not reported; and 16% Hispanic. Measurement reliability of repeated 3D scans was within 1 mm of manual measurement reliability for stature, head circumference and arm circumference. We found systematic bias when analyzing accuracy-on average 3D imaging overestimated stature and head circumference by 6 mm and 3 mm respectively, and underestimated arm circumference by 2 mm. The 3D imaging system used in this study is reliable, low-cost, portable, and can handle movement; making it ideal for use in routine nutritional assessment. However, additional research, particularly on accuracy, and further development of the scanning and processing software is needed before making policy and clinical practice recommendations on the routine use of 3D imaging for child anthropometry.

BACKGROUND: The 2003 revision of the US Standard Certificate of Live Birth (birth certificate) and Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) are important for maternal weight research and surveillance. We examined quality of pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), gestational weight gain, and component variables from these sources. METHODS: Data are from a PRAMS data quality improvement study among a subset of New York City and Vermont respondents in 2009. We calculated mean differences comparing pre-pregnancy BMI data from the birth certificate and PRAMS (n=734), and gestational weight gain data from the birth certificate (n=678) to the medical record, considered the gold standard. We compared BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obese) and gestational weight gain categories (below, within, above recommendations), classified by different sources, using percent agreement and the simple kappa statistic. RESULTS: For most maternal weight variables, mean differences between the birth certificate or PRAMS compared to the medical record were less than 1 kg. Compared to the medical record, the birth certificate classified similar proportions into pre-pregnancy BMI categories (agreement=89%, kappa=0.83); PRAMS slightly underestimated overweight and obesity (agreement=84%, kappa=0.73). Compared to the medical record, the birth certificate overestimated gestational weight gain below recommendations and underestimated weight gain within recommendations (agreement=81%, kappa=0.69). Agreement varied by maternal and pregnancy-related characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Classification of pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational weight gain from the birth certificate or PRAMS were mostly similar to the medical record but varied by maternal and pregnancy-related characteristics. Efforts to understand how misclassification influences epidemiologic associations are needed.

3D imaging for body measurements (e.g., anthropometry) is regularly used for design of garments and ergonomic products. The development of low-cost 3D scanners provided an opportunity to extend the use of 3D imaging to the health sector. We developed and tested the AutoAnthro System, the first mobile, low-cost, full-body, 3D imaging system designed specifically for child anthropometry. This study evaluated the efficiency, invasiveness, and user experience of the newly developed 3D imaging system. We used a mixed-methods, collaborative approach that included a quantitative time-motion study and qualitative interviews of anthropometrists. The time-motion study employed continuous observation of manual measurement and scanning based on milestone timing, and we designed and analyzed the qualitative component based on grounded theory from a constructivist point of view. For cooperative children, anthropometrists considered the use of 3D imaging an easy, 'streamlined experience,' but with uncooperative children anthropometrists reported that capturing a good quality scan was out of their control. The mean time to complete a full set of scans was 68 seconds (standard deviation (SD) 29), compared to 135 seconds (SD 22) for a set of manual measurements (stature, head circumference, and arm circumference). We observed that crying was more common during manual measurement, and anthropometrist interviews confirmed that 3D imaging was less stressful for children than manual measurement. Overall, the anthropometrists were not yet ready to completely abandon traditional, manual equipment for 3D scanners. Revising the AutoAnthro System to address anthropometrists' concerns on capturing good quality scans of uncooperative children should help to facilitate widespread use of 3D imaging for child anthropometry in the health sector.

Clinical Trials Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov [NCT02378753] and Pan African Clinical Trials Registry [PACTR201502001037220].

Accurate forecasts could enable more informed public health decisions. Since 2013, CDC has worked with external researchers to improve influenza forecasts by coordinating seasonal challenges for the United States and the 10 Health and Human Service Regions. Forecasted targets for the 2014-15 challenge were the onset week, peak week, and peak intensity of the season and the weekly percent of outpatient visits due to influenza-like illness (ILI) 1-4 weeks in advance. We used a logarithmic scoring rule to score the weekly forecasts, averaged the scores over an evaluation period, and then exponentiated the resulting logarithmic score. Poor forecasts had a score near 0, and perfect forecasts a score of 1. Five teams submitted forecasts from seven different models. At the national level, the team scores for onset week ranged from <0.01 to 0.41, peak week ranged from 0.08 to 0.49, and peak intensity ranged from <0.01 to 0.17. The scores for predictions of ILI 1-4 weeks in advance ranged from 0.02-0.38 and was highest 1 week ahead. Forecast skill varied by HHS region. Forecasts can predict epidemic characteristics that inform public health actions. CDC, state and local health officials, and researchers are working together to improve forecasts.

Anthropometric data collected in clinics and surveys are often inaccurate and unreliable due to measurement error. The Body Imaging for Nutritional Assessment Study (BINA) evaluated the ability of 3D imaging to correctly measure stature, head circumference (HC) and arm circumference (MUAC) for children under five years of age. This paper describes the protocol for and the quality of manual anthropometric measurements in BINA, a study conducted in 2016-17 in Atlanta, USA. Quality was evaluated by examining digit preference, biological plausibility of z-scores, z-score standard deviations, and reliability. We calculated z-scores and analyzed plausibility based on the 2006 WHO Child Growth Standards (CGS). For reliability, we calculated intra- and inter-observer Technical Error of Measurement (TEM) and Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC). We found low digit preference; 99.6% of z-scores were biologically plausible, with z-score standard deviations ranging from 0.92 to 1.07. Total TEM was 0.40 for stature, 0.28 for HC, and 0.25 for MUAC in centimeters. ICC ranged from 0.99 to 1.00. The quality of manual measurements in BINA was high and similar to that of the anthropometric data used to develop the WHO CGS. We attributed high quality to vigorous training, motivated and competent field staff, reduction of non-measurement error through the use of technology, and reduction of measurement error through adequate monitoring and supervision. Our anthropometry measurement protocol, which builds on and improves upon the protocol used for the WHO CGS, can be used to improve anthropometric data quality. The discussion illustrates the need to standardize anthropometric data quality assessment, and we conclude that BINA can provide a valuable evaluation of 3D imaging for child anthropometry because there is comparison to gold-standard, manual measurements.

Our objective was to examine the relationship between estimated maternal exposure to pesticides in public drinking water and the risk of congenital heart defects (CHD). We used mixed-effects logistic regression to analyze data from 18,291 nonsyndromic cases with heart defects from the Texas Birth Defects Registry and 4414 randomly-selected controls delivered in Texas from 1999 through 2005. Water district-level pesticide exposure was estimated by linking each maternal residential address to the corresponding public water supply district's measured atrazine levels. We repeated analyses among independent subjects from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS) (1620 nonsyndromic cases with heart defects and 1335 controls delivered from 1999 through 2005). No positive associations were observed between high versus low atrazine level and eight CHD subtypes or all included heart defects combined. These findings should be interpreted with caution, in light of potential misclassification and relatively large proportions of subjects with missing atrazine data. Thus, more consistent and complete monitoring and reporting of drinking water contaminants will aid in better understanding the relationships between pesticide water contaminants and birth defects.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is a potentially fatal bacterial zoonosis that is endemic throughout the tropics and may be misdiagnosed as dengue. Delayed hospital admission of leptospirosis patients is associated with increased mortality. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: During a concurrent dengue/leptospirosis epidemic in Puerto Rico in 2010, suspected dengue patients that tested dengue-negative were tested for leptospirosis. Fatal and non-fatal hospitalized leptospirosis patients were matched 1:1-3 by age. Records from all medical visits were evaluated for factors associated with fatal outcome. Among 175 leptospirosis patients identified (4.7 per 100,000 residents), 26 (15%) were fatal. Most patients were older males and had illness onset during the rainy season. Fatal case patients first sought medical care earlier than non-fatal control patients (2.5 vs. 5 days post-illness onset [DPO], p < 0.01), but less frequently first sought care at a hospital (52.4% vs. 92.2%, p < 0.01). Although fatal cases were more often diagnosed with leptospirosis at first medical visit (43.9% vs. 9.6%, p = 0.01), they were admitted to the hospital no earlier than non-fatal controls (4.5 vs. 6 DPO, p = 0.31). Cases less often developed fever (p = 0.03), but more often developed jaundice, edema, leg pain, hemoptysis, and had a seizure (p ≤ 0.03). Multivariable analysis of laboratory values from first medical visit associated with fatal outcome included increased white blood cell (WBC) count with increased creatinine (p = 0.001), and decreased bicarbonate with either increased WBC count, increased creatinine, or decreased platelet count (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Patients with fatal leptospirosis sought care earlier, but were not admitted for care any earlier than non-fatal patients. Combinations of routine laboratory values predictive of fatal outcome should be considered in admission decision-making for patients with suspected leptospirosis.