Last data update: Jun 17, 2024. (Total: 47034 publications since 2009)
Records 1-5 (of 5 Records) |
Query Trace: Patel NN [original query] |
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Kenya's experience implementing event-based surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic
Ndegwa L , Ngere P , Makayotto L , Patel NN , Nzisa L , Otieno N , Osoro E , Oreri E , Kiptoo E , Maigua S , Crawley A , Clara AW , Arunmozhi Balajee S , Munyua P , Herman-Roloff A . BMJ Glob Health 2023 8 (12) Event-based surveillance (EBS) can be implemented in most settings for the detection of potential health threats by recognition and immediate reporting of predefined signals. Such a system complements existing case-based and sentinel surveillance systems. With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the Kenya Ministry of Health (MOH) modified and expanded an EBS system in both community and health facility settings for the reporting of COVID-19-related signals. Using an electronic reporting tool, m-Dharura, MOH recorded 8790 signals reported, with 3002 (34.2%) verified as events, across both community and health facility sites from March 2020 to June 2021. A subsequent evaluation found that the EBS system was flexible enough to incorporate the addition of COVID-19-related signals during a pandemic and maintain high rates of reporting from participants. Inadequate resources for follow-up investigations to reported events, lack of supportive supervision for some community health volunteers and lack of data system interoperability were identified as challenges to be addressed as the EBS system in Kenya continues to expand to additional jurisdictions. |
Factors associated with receiving longer than recommended therapy among culture-negative pulmonary tuberculosis patients
Tsang CA , Patel NN , Stout JE , Fernando R , Pratt R , Goswami ND . Open Forum Infect Dis 2022 9 (12) ofac630 BACKGROUND: US tuberculosis (TB) guidelines recommend treatment ≥6 months with a regimen composed of multiple effective anti-TB drugs. Since 2003, a 4-month regimen for a specific subset of TB patients has also been recommended. METHODS: We used 2011-2018 US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System data to characterize factors associated with 4-month (111-140 days) therapy among adult patients who had completed treatment and were potentially eligible at that time for 4-month therapy (culture-negative pulmonary-only TB, absence of certain risk factors, and initial treatment that included pyrazinamide). We used modified Poisson regression with backward elimination of main effect variables to calculate adjusted relative risks (aRRs). RESULTS: During 2011-2018, 63 393 adults completed TB treatment: 5560 (8.8%) were potentially eligible for 4-month therapy; of these, 5560 patients (79%) received >4-month therapy (median, 193 days or ∼6 months). Patients with cavitary disease were more likely to receive >4-month therapy (aRR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.07-1.14) vs patients without cavitary disease. Patients more likely to receive 4-month therapy included patients treated by health departments vs private providers only (aRR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91-0.98), those in the South and West vs the Midwest, non-US-born persons (aRR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99) vs US-born persons, and aged 25-64 years vs 15-24 years. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients potentially eligible for 4-month therapy were treated with standard 6-month courses. Beyond clinical eligibility criteria, other patient- and program-related factors might be more critical determinants of treatment duration. |
Estimating Under-recognized COVID-19 Deaths, United States, March 2020-May 2021 using an Excess Mortality Modelling Approach.
Iuliano AD , Chang HH , Patel NN , Threlkel R , Kniss K , Reich J , Steele M , Hall AJ , Fry AM , Reed C . Lancet Reg Health Am 2021 1 100019 ![]() BACKGROUND: In the United States, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are captured through the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and death certificates reported to the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). However, not all COVID-19 deaths are recognized and reported because of limitations in testing, exacerbation of chronic health conditions that are listed as the cause of death, or delays in reporting. Estimating deaths may provide a more comprehensive understanding of total COVID-19-attributable deaths. METHODS: We estimated COVID-19 unrecognized attributable deaths, from March 2020-April 2021, using all-cause deaths reported to NVSS by week and six age groups (0-17, 18-49, 50-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years) for 50 states, New York City, and the District of Columbia using a linear time series regression model. Reported COVID-19 deaths were subtracted from all-cause deaths before applying the model. Weekly expected deaths, assuming no SARS-CoV-2 circulation and predicted all-cause deaths using SARS-CoV-2 weekly percent positive as a covariate were modelled by age group and including state as a random intercept. COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths were calculated for each state and age group by subtracting the expected all-cause deaths from the predicted deaths. FINDINGS: We estimated that 766,611 deaths attributable to COVID-19 occurred in the United States from March 8, 2020-May 29, 2021. Of these, 184,477 (24%) deaths were not documented on death certificates. Eighty-two percent of unrecognized deaths were among persons aged ≥65 years; the proportion of unrecognized deaths were 0•24-0•31 times lower among those 0-17 years relative to all other age groups. More COVID-19-attributable deaths were not captured during the early months of the pandemic (March-May 2020) and during increases in SARS-CoV-2 activity (July 2020, November 2020-February 2021). DISCUSSION: Estimating COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths provides a better understanding of the COVID-19 mortality burden and may better quantify the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. FUNDING: None. |
Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization - United States, February-September, 2020.
Reese H , Iuliano AD , Patel NN , Garg S , Kim L , Silk BJ , Hall AJ , Fry A , Reed C . Clin Infect Dis 2020 72 (12) e1010-e1017 BACKGROUND: In the United States, laboratory confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable. However, reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number of cases because detection and reporting are incomplete and can vary by disease severity, geography, and over time. METHODS: To estimate the cumulative incidence SARS-CoV-2 infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations, we adapted a simple probabilistic multiplier model. Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted for sources of under-detection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity. RESULTS: We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 2.0-3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8-9.0) non-hospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S. population from February 27-September 30, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning. |
Global seasonal influenza mortality estimates: a comparison of three different approaches
Cozza V , Campbell H , Chang HH , Iuliano AD , Paget J , Patel NN , Reiner RC , Troeger C , Viboud C , Bresee JS , Fitzner J . Am J Epidemiol 2020 190 (5) 718-727 Prior to updating global influenza-associated mortality estimates, the World Health Organization convened a consultation in July 2017 to understand differences in methodology and implications on results of three influenza mortality projects from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Netherlands Institute for Health Service Research (GLaMOR), and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The expert panel reviewed estimates and discussed differences in data sources, analysis, and modeling assumptions. We performed a comparison analysis of the estimates. Influenza-associated respiratory death counts were comparable between CDC and GLaMOR; IHME estimate was considerably lower. The greatest country-specific influenza-associated mortality rate fold differences between CDC/IHME and between GLaMOR/IHME estimates were among countries in South-East Asia and Eastern Mediterranean region. The data envelope used for the calculation was one of the major differences (CDC and GLaMOR: all respiratory deaths; IHME: low respiratory infection deaths). With the assumption that there is only one cause of death for each death, IHME estimates a fraction of the full influenza-associated respiratory mortality that is measured by the other two groups. Wide variability of parameters was observed. Continued coordination between groups could assist with better understanding of methodological differences and new approaches to estimating influenza deaths globally. |
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