BACKGROUND: Progress toward measles and rubella (MR) elimination has stagnated as countries are unable to reach the required 95% vaccine coverage. Microarray patches (MAPs) are anticipated to offer significant programmatic advantages to needle and syringe (N/S) presentation and increase MR vaccination coverage. A demand forecast analysis of the programmatic doses required (PDR) could accelerate MR-MAP development by informing the size and return of the investment required to manufacture MAPs. METHODS: Unconstrained global MR-MAP demand for 2030-2040 was estimated for three scenarios, for groups of countries with similar characteristics (archetypes), and four types of uses of MR-MAPs (use cases). The base scenario 1 assumed that MR-MAPs would replace a share of MR doses delivered by N/S, and that MAPs can reach a proportion of previously unimmunised populations. Scenario 2 assumed that MR-MAPs would be piloted in selected countries in each region of the World Health Organization (WHO); and scenario 3 explored introduction of MR-MAPs earlier in countries with the lowest measles vaccine coverage and highest MR disease burden. We conducted sensitivity analyses to measure the impact of data uncertainty. RESULTS: For the base scenario (1), the estimated global PDR for MR-MAPs was forecasted at 30 million doses in 2030 and increased to 220 million doses by 2040. Compared to scenario 1, scenario 2 resulted in an overall decrease in PDR of 18%, and scenario 3 resulted in a 21% increase in PDR between 2030 and 2040. Sensitivity analyses revealed that assumptions around the anticipated reach or coverage of MR-MAPs, particularly in the hard-to-reach and MOV populations, and the market penetration of MR-MAPs significantly impacted the estimated PDR. CONCLUSIONS: Significant demand is expected for MR-MAPs between 2030 and 2040, however, efforts are required to address remaining data quality, uncertainties and gaps that underpin the assumptions in this analysis.

The fourth United Nations Millennium Development Goal, adopted in 2000, set a target to reduce child mortality by two thirds by 2015. One indicator of progress toward this target was measles vaccination coverage (1). In 2010, the World Health Assembly (WHA) set three milestones for measles control by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of a measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) among children aged 1 year to ≥90% at the national level and to ≥80% in every district; 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to <5 cases per million population; and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate (2).* In 2012, WHA endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan,dagger with the objective of eliminating measles in four World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2015 and in five regions by 2020. Countries in all six WHO regions have adopted goals for measles elimination by or before 2020. Measles elimination is defined as the absence of endemic measles virus transmission in a region or other defined geographic area for ≥12 months, in the presence of a high quality surveillance system that meets targets of key performance indicators. This report updates a previous report (3) and describes progress toward global measles control milestones and regional measles elimination goals during 2000-2016. During this period, annual reported measles incidence decreased 87%, from 145 to 19 cases per million persons, and annual estimated measles deaths decreased 84%, from 550,100 to 89,780; measles vaccination prevented an estimated 20.4 million deaths. However, the 2015 milestones have not yet been met; only one WHO region has been verified as having eliminated measles. Improved implementation of elimination strategies by countries and their partners is needed, with focus on increasing vaccination coverage through substantial and sustained additional investments in health systems, strengthening surveillance systems, using surveillance data to drive programmatic actions, securing political commitment, and raising the visibility of measles elimination goals.

Background. A measles outbreak in Pohnpei State, Federated States of Micronesia in 2014 affected many persons who had received ≥1 dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV). A mass vaccination campaign targeted persons aged 6 months to 49 years, regardless of prior vaccination. Methods. We evaluated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of MCV by comparing secondary attack rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated contacts after household exposure to measles. Results. Among 318 contacts, VE for precampaign MCV was 23.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], -425 to 87.3) for 1 dose, 63.4% (95% CI, -103 to 90.6) for 2 doses, and 95.9% (95% CI, 45.0 to 100) for 3 doses. Vaccine effectiveness was 78.7% (95% CI, 10.1 to 97.7) for campaign doses received ≥5 days before rash onset in the primary case and 50.4% (95% CI, -52.1 to 87.9) for doses received 4 days before to 3 days after rash onset in the primary case. Vaccine effectiveness for most recent doses received before 2010 ranged from 51% to 57%, but it increased to 84% for second doses received in 2010 or later. Conclusions. Low VE was a major source of measles susceptibility in this outbreak; potential reasons include historical cold chain inadequacies or waning of immunity. Vaccine effectiveness of campaign doses supports rapid implementation of vaccination campaigns in outbreak settings.

IMPORTANCE: To verify the elimination of endemic measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) from the Western hemisphere, the Pan American Health Organization requested each member country to compile a national elimination report. The United States documented the elimination of endemic measles in 2000 and of endemic rubella and CRS in 2004. In December 2011, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened an external expert panel to review the evidence and determine whether elimination of endemic measles, rubella, and CRS had been sustained. OBJECTIVE: To review the evidence for sustained elimination of endemic measles, rubella, and CRS from the United States through 2011. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Review of data for measles from 2001 to 2011 and for rubella and CRS from 2004 to 2011 covering the US resident population and international visitors, including disease epidemiology, importation status of cases, molecular epidemiology, adequacy of surveillance, and population immunity as estimated by national vaccination coverage and serologic surveys. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Annual numbers of measles, rubella, and CRS cases, by importation status, outbreak size, and distribution; proportions of US population seropositive for measles and rubella; and measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage levels. RESULTS: Since 2001, US reported measles incidence has remained below 1 case per 1 000 000 population. Since 2004, rubella incidence has been below 1 case per 10 000 000 population, and CRS incidence has been below 1 case per 5 000 000 births. Eighty-eight percent of measles cases and 54% of rubella cases were internationally imported or epidemiologically or virologically linked to importation. The few cases not linked to importation were insufficient to represent endemic transmission. Molecular epidemiology indicated no endemic genotypes. The US surveillance system is adequate to detect endemic measles or rubella. Seroprevalence and vaccination coverage data indicate high levels of population immunity to measles and rubella. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The external expert panel concluded that the elimination of endemic measles, rubella, and CRS from the United States was sustained through 2011. However, international importation continues, and health care providers should suspect measles or rubella in patients with febrile rash illness, especially when associated with international travel or international visitors, and should report suspected cases to the local health department.