Life expectancy is an important measure for health research and policymaking. Linking individual survey records to mortality data can overcome limitations in vital statistics data used to examine differential mortality by permitting the construction of death rates based on information collected from respondents at the time of interview and facilitating estimation of life expectancies for subgroups of interest. However, use of complex survey data linked to mortality data can complicate the estimation of standard errors. This paper presents a case study of approaches to variance estimation for life expectancies based on life tables, using the National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files. The approaches considered include application of Chiang's traditional method, which is straightforward but does not account for the complex design features of the data; balanced repeated replication (BRR), which is more complicated but accounts more fully for the design features; and compromise, 'hybrid' approaches, which can be less difficult to implement than BRR but still account partially for the design features. Two tentative conclusions are drawn. First, it is important to account for the effects of the complex sample design, at least within life-table age intervals. Second, accounting for the effects within age intervals but not across age intervals, as is done by the hybrid methods, can yield reasonably accurate estimates of standard errors, especially for subgroups of interest with more homogeneous characteristics among their members. Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

BACKGROUND: Higher educational attainment is associated with better health status and longer life. PURPOSE: This analysis estimates the annual dollar value of the benefits that would accrue to less-educated American adults if they experienced the lower mortality rates and better health of those with a college education. METHODS: Using estimates of differences in mortality among adults aged ≥ 25 years by educational attainment from the National Longitudinal Mortality Survey and of education-based differentials in health status from published studies based on the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, combined with existing estimates of the economic value of a healthy life year, the economic value of raising the health of individuals with less than a college education to the health of the college educated is estimated. RESULTS: The annual economic value that would accrue to disadvantaged (less-educated) Americans if their health and longevity improved to that of college-educated Americans is $1.02 trillion. CONCLUSIONS: This modeling exercise does not fully account for the social costs and benefits of particular policies and programs to reduce health disparities; rather, it provides a sense of the magnitude of the economic value lost in health disparities to compare with other social issues vying for attention. The aggregate economic gains from interventions that improve the health of disadvantaged Americans are potentially large.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of adult obesity has increased in recent decades. It is important to predict the long-term effect of body weight, and changes in body weight, in middle age on longevity and Medicare costs in older ages. METHODS: The relationships between individuals' characteristics in middle age and subsequent Medicare costs and mortality were estimated from the linkage of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study to Medicare administrative records (1991-2000) and mortality information (1971-2000). We predicted longevity and lifetime Medicare costs via simulation for 45-year-old persons by body weight in 1973 and changes in body weight between 1973 and 1983. RESULTS: Obese 45-year-olds had a smaller chance of surviving to age 65 and, if they did, incurred significantly higher average lifetime Medicare costs than normal-weight 45-year-olds ($163,000 compared with $117,000). Those who remained obese between ages 45 and 55 in 1973 to 1983 incurred significantly higher lifetime Medicare costs than those who maintained normal weight. Other weight change categories did not differ significantly from those who maintained normal weight in terms of life expectancy at age 65, but overweight and obese people who lost weight had less chance of surviving to age 65 and the lowest estimated life expectancies thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic obesity in middle age increases lifetime Medicare costs relative to those who remained normal weight. As the survival of obese persons improves, it is possible that Medicare costs may rise substantially in the future to meet the health care needs of today's obese middle-aged population. Thus, active engagement by both the private and public sectors to prevent and to reduce obesity are critically needed.