Use of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Kenya has led to substantial reductions in vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease. However, analysis of recent surveillance data indicates an outbreak of vaccine-type serotype 1 in 2023 in Kibera, Kenya. Continued monitoring of invasive pneumococcal disease in Kenya is warranted.

BACKGROUND: Spatial repellent products are used for prevention of insect bites, and a body of evidence exists on spatial repellent entomological efficacy. A new option for vector control, spatial repellent products are designed to release active ingredient into the air for disruption of human-vector contact thereby reducing human exposure to mosquito-borne pathogens. Clinical trials have shown spatial repellent epidemiological efficacy against Aedes-borne viruses but inconclusive outcomes against malaria. We aimed to show and quantify the protective efficacy of spatial repellents in reducing malaria infection incidence in Busia County, Kenya. METHODS: A prospective, cluster-randomised, controlled trial in Busia County, western Kenya was done to quantify the efficacy of a transfluthrin-based spatial repellent against human malaria infection following mass distribution of insecticide treated nets. Investigators, staff, and study participants were masked to cluster allocation. Infection incidence was measured by microscopy in children aged 6 months to younger than 10 years during a 4-month baseline (March-July 2021) and 24-month follow-up period with intervention (October, 2021-October, 2023). From 58 clusters (29 intervention, 29 placebo), a total of 1526 and 1546 participants from two consecutive, 12-month cohorts were assessed for first-time malaria infection (primary endpoint) by survival analysis at interim and end-of-trial timepoints, respectively. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04766879 and is complete. FINDINGS: The outcome of the primary endpoint indicated that spatial repellents significantly reduced the hazard rate of first-time malaria infection by 33·4% (95% CI 11·1-50·1; p=0·0058) and the hazard rate of overall new malaria infections by 32·1% (15·9-45·2; p=0·0004). No reported adverse events and serious adverse events were deemed to be associated with the spatial repellent. INTERPRETATION: Our trial provides the first evidence of a demonstrative spatial repellent protective efficacy in reducing risk of malaria infection in an African setting characterised by high malaria transmission, pyrethroid resistant malaria vectors, and high coverage of insecticide treated nets. Results support spatial repellent products as a beneficial component of malaria prevention. FUNDING: This study was funded by Unitaid to the University of Notre Dame.

BACKGROUND: Pyrethroid-chlorfenapyr nets have shown significant epidemiological impact over pyrethroid-only and pyrethroid plus piperonyl-butoxide (PBO) in Africa. A non-inferiority evaluation of PermaNet(®) Dual, a new chlorfenapyr plus deltamethrin net, compared to Interceptor(®) G2, was conducted in experimental huts in Siaya, Kenya against free-flying pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles funestus. METHODS: This study was an experimental hut trial, following a 7 by 7 Latin Square design. Seven treatments and seven sleepers were deployed in the experimental huts daily and rotated weekly and daily, respectively. Mosquitoes were collected every morning between 06:30 h and 08:30 h and were assessed for blood feeding and then monitored for immediate knockdown 1-h post collection and delayed mortality after 72 h. Differences in proportional outcomes were analysed using the blocked logistic regression model, while differences in numerical outcomes were analysed using the negative binomial regression model. Non-inferiority determination was performed based on World Health Organization (WHO) protocol. RESULTS: Mortality at 72 h was 30.2% for PermaNet 3.0, 44.4% for the Interceptor(®) G2 and 49.2% for the PermaNet(®) Dual. Blood feeding was highest with PermaNet(®) Dual at 15%, and least with PermaNet(®) 3.0 at 10%. PermaNet(®) Dual and Interceptor(®) G2 had no significant differences in mortality (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.00-1.20) or blood feeding (OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.33) and the lower confidence bounds were within the non-inferiority margins but for blood feeding, non-inferiority was relatively high to the upper 95% confidence bound. PermaNet(®) Dual was non-inferior to the Interceptor(®) G2 and superior to the PermaNet(®) 3.0 nets in causing mortality but inferior to PermaNet (®)3.0 in blood feeding inhibition of the vectors. CONCLUSION: PermaNet(®) Dual met the WHO criteria for non-inferiority to Interceptor(®) G2 and may be considered for deployment for public health use against pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles vectors of malaria.

BACKGROUND: Kenya introduced Synflorix™ (GlaxoSmithKline, PCV10-GSK), a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, in 2011, using three primary doses and, in select areas, catch-up campaigns. Surveys conducted 1-2 years post-introduction showed a stable prevalence of pneumococcal colonization, with declines in vaccine-type carriage. However, little is known about the long-term impact of PCV10-GSK in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of pneumococcal carriage among children aged <5 years in November-December 2017 in Kibera (Nairobi informal settlement, no catch-up) and Asembo (rural western Kenya, 2-dose catch-up for children 1-4 years), using the same methods and settings as prior annual surveys from 2009 to 2013. Participants were randomly selected from an ongoing population-based surveillance platform. Nasopharyngeal swabs were frozen in skim milk-tryptone-glucose-glycerin media within 4 h and underwent culture with broth enrichment for pneumococcus. Isolates were serotyped by polymerase chain reaction and Quellung. RESULTS: We enrolled 504 children, including 252 from each site; >90 % of participants had received 3 doses of PCV10-GSK. Pneumococcal colonization was detected in 210 (83.3 %) participants in Kibera and 149 (59.1 %) in Asembo, which was significantly lower than the prevalence observed in 2013 (92.9 % and 85.7 %, respectively). PCV10-GSK serotypes were detected in 35/252 (13.9 %) participants in Kibera and 23/252 (9.1 %) in Asembo, respectively; these prevalences were lower, but not statistically different, from vaccine-type carriage prevalences in 2013 (17.3 % and 13.3 %, respectively). In 2017 in both sites, serotypes 3, 6A, 19A, 19F, and 35B were among the most common serotypes. CONCLUSION: Six years post-PCV10-GSK introduction, the prevalence of pneumococcal carriage among children has decreased, and the impact of PCV10-GSK on vaccine-type carriage has plateaued. Kenya recently changed from PCV10-GSK to Pneumosil™ (Serum Institute of India), a 10-valent PCV that includes serotypes 6A and 19A; these data provide historical context for interpreting changes in vaccine-type carriage following the PCV formulation switch.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread changes and disruptions to healthcare seeking behavior. There are limited studies on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare seeking patterns in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), especially in settings with inequitable access to healthcare in rural and urban informal settlements. We investigated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported healthcare seeking at health facilities and chemists using morbidity data from participants in an ongoing population-based infectious disease surveillance platform in Asembo in Siaya County, a rural setting in western Kenya and Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi County. We described healthcare seeking patterns before (from 1st January 2016 to 12th March 2020) and during the pandemic (from 13th March 2020 to 31st August 2022) by gender and age for any reported illness and select clinical syndromes using frequencies and percentages. We used a generalized estimating equation with an exchangeable correlation structure to assess the effect of the pandemic on healthcare seeking adjusting for gender and age. Overall, there was a 19% (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 0.81; 95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.79-0.83) decline in odds of seeking healthcare at health facilities for any illness in Asembo during the pandemic, and a 30% (aOR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67-0.73) decline in Kibera. Similarly, there was a decline in seeking healthcare by clinical syndromes, e.g., for ARI, aOR: 0.76; 95% CI:0.73-0.79 in Asembo, and aOR: 0.68; 95% CI:0.64-0.72 in Kibera. The pandemic resulted in increased healthcare seeking at chemists (aOR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.20-1.27 in Asembo, and aOR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.35-1.46 in Kibera). This study highlights interruptions to healthcare seeking in resource-limited settings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic resulted in a substantial decline in seeking care at health facilities, and an increase of the same at chemists.

BACKGROUND: Vector surveillance is among the World Health Organization global vector control response (2017-2030) pillars. Human landing catches are a gold standard but difficult to implement and potentially expose collectors to malaria infection. Other methods like light traps, pyrethrum spray catches and aspiration are less expensive and less risky to collectors. METHODS: Three mosquito sampling methods (UV light traps, CDC light traps and Prokopack aspiration) were evaluated against human landing catches (HLC) in two villages of Rarieda sub-county, Siaya County, Kenya. UV-LTs, CDC-LTs and HLCs were conducted hourly between 17:00 and 07:00. Aspiration was done indoors and outdoors between 07:00 and 11:00 a.m. Analyses of mosquito densities, species abundance and sporozoite infectivity were performed across all sampling methods. Species identification PCR and ELISAs were done for Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus complexes and data analysis was done in R. RESULTS: Anopheles mosquitoes sampled from 608 trapping efforts were 5,370 constituting 70.3% Anopheles funestus sensu lato (s.l.), 19.7% Anopheles coustani and 7.2% An. gambiae s.l. 93.8% of An. funestus s.l. were An. funestus sensu stricto (s.s.) and 97.8% of An. gambiae s.l. were Anopheles arabiensis. Only An. funestus were sporozoite positive with 3.1% infection prevalence. Indoors, aspiration captured higher An. funestus (mean = 6.74; RR = 8.83, P < 0.001) then UV-LT (mean = 3.70; RR = 3.97, P < 0.001) and CDC-LT (mean = 1.74; RR = 1.89, P = 0.03) compared to HLC. UV-LT and CDC-LT indoors captured averagely 0.18 An. arabiensis RR = 5.75, P = 0.028 and RR = 5.87, P = 0.028 respectively. Outdoors, UV-LT collected significantly higher Anopheles mosquitoes compared to HLC (An. funestus: RR = 5.18, P < 0.001; An. arabiensis: RR = 15.64, P = 0.009; An. coustani: RR = 11.65, P < 0.001). Anopheles funestus hourly biting indoors in UV-LT and CDC-LT indicated different peaks compared to HLC. CONCLUSIONS: Anopheles funestus remains the predominant mosquito species. More mosquitoes were collected using aspiration, CDC-LTs and UV-LTs indoors and UV-LTs and CD-LTs outdoors compared to HLCs. UV-LTs collected more mosquitoes than CDC-LTs. The varied trends observed at different times of the night suggest that these methods collect mosquitoes with diverse activities and care must be taken when interpreting the results.

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal diseases continue to contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality in infants and young children in developing countries. There is an urgent need to better understand the contributions of novel, potentially uncultured, diarrheal pathogens to severe diarrheal disease, as well as distortions in normal gut microbiota composition that might facilitate severe disease. RESULTS: We use high throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing to compare fecal microbiota composition in children under five years of age who have been diagnosed with moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) with the microbiota from diarrhea-free controls. Our study includes 992 children from four low-income countries in West and East Africa, and Southeast Asia. Known pathogens, as well as bacteria currently not considered as important diarrhea-causing pathogens, are positively associated with MSD, and these include Escherichia/Shigella, and Granulicatella species, and Streptococcus mitis/pneumoniae groups. In both cases and controls, there tend to be distinct negative correlations between facultative anaerobic lineages and obligate anaerobic lineages. Overall genus-level microbiota composition exhibit a shift in controls from low to high levels of Prevotella and in MSD cases from high to low levels of Escherichia/Shigella in younger versus older children; however, there was significant variation among many genera by both site and age. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings expand the current understanding of microbiota-associated diarrhea pathogenicity in young children from developing countries. Our findings are necessarily based on correlative analyses and must be further validated through epidemiological and molecular techniques.

Advanced HIV disease (AHD) remains a significant burden, despite the widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs. Individuals with AHD are at a high risk of death even after starting ART. We characterized treatment naïve and treatment experienced clients presenting with AHD in western Kenya to inform service delivery and program improvement. We conducted a retrospective study using routinely collected program data from October 2016 to September 2019 for AHD clients in eight facilities in Homa Bay County, Kenya. Demographic and clinical data were abstracted from the medical records of AHD clients, defined as HIV-positive clients aged ≥ 5 years with documented CD4 count < 200 cells/mm3 and/or WHO clinical stage II/IV. Associations were assessed using Pearson's chi-square and Mann-Whitney Rank-Sum tests at 5% level of significance. Of the 19,427 HIV clients at the eight facilities, 6649 (34%) had a CD4 count < 200 cells/mm3 or a WHO III/IV stage. Of these, 1845 were randomly selected for analysis. Over half (991) of participants were aged 45 + years and 1040 (56%) were female. The median age was 46.0 years (interquartile range: 39.2-54.5); 1553 (84%) were in care at county and sub-county hospitals; and 1460 (79%) were WHO stage III/IV at enrollment. At ART initiation, 241 (13%) had tuberculosis, 192 (10%) had chronic diarrhea, and 94 (5%) had Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia. At the time of data collection, 89 (5%) participants had died and 140 (8%) were lost to follow-up. Eighteen percent (330) of participants were ART-experienced (on ART for ≥ 3 months). The proportions of ART-experienced and -naïve clients regarding age, sex and marital status were similar. However, a higher proportion of ART-experienced clients received care at primary care facilities, (93(28%) vs. 199 (13%); P < .001); were WHO stage 3/4 at AHD diagnosis, 273 (84%) vs. 1187 (79%) (P = .041); and had died or been LTFU, (124 (38%) vs. 105 (7%); P < .001). With increasing prevalence of patients on ART, the proportion of AHD treatment-experienced clients may increase without effective interventions to ensure that these patients remain in care.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 has extensively spread in cities and rural communities, and studies are needed to quantify exposure in the population. We report seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in two well-characterized populations in Kenya at two time points. These data inform the design and delivery of public health mitigation measures. METHODS: Leveraging on existing population based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) in two demographically diverse settings, a rural site in western Kenya in Asembo, Siaya County, and an urban informal settlement in Kibera, Nairobi County, we set up a longitudinal cohort of randomly selected households with serial sampling of all consenting household members in March and June/July 2021. Both sites included 1,794 and 1,638 participants in the March and June/July 2021, respectively. Individual seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was expressed as a percentage of the seropositive among the individuals tested, accounting for household clustering and weighted by the PBIDS age and sex distribution. RESULTS: Overall weighted individual seroprevalence increased from 56.2% (95%CI: 52.1, 60.2%) in March 2021 to 63.9% (95%CI: 59.5, 68.0%) in June 2021 in Kibera. For Asembo, the seroprevalence almost doubled from 26.0% (95%CI: 22.4, 30.0%) in March 2021 to 48.7% (95%CI: 44.3, 53.2%) in July 2021. Seroprevalence was highly heterogeneous by age and geography in these populations-higher seroprevalence was observed in the urban informal settlement (compared to the rural setting), and children aged <10 years had the lowest seroprevalence in both sites. Only 1.2% and 1.6% of the study participants reported receipt of at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the second round of serosurvey-none by the first round. CONCLUSIONS: In these two populations, SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased in the first 16 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. It is important to prioritize additional mitigation measures, such as vaccine distribution, in crowded and low socioeconomic settings.

Robust data on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Africa are relatively scarce. Using data from two well-characterized populations in Kenya we aimed to estimate excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The mortality data arise from an ongoing population-based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) platform, which has been operational since 2006 in rural western Kenya (Asembo, Siaya County) and an urban informal settlement (Kibera, Nairobi County), Kenya. PBIDS participants were regularly visited at home (2-3 times a year) by field workers who collected demographic data, including deaths. In addition, verbal autopsy (VA) interviews for all identified deaths are conducted. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates before and during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we compared associated mortality rates between the periods using incidence rate ratios. Excess deaths during the COVID-19 period were also estimated by modelling expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19 by applying a negative binomial regression model on historical mortality data from January 2016. Overall and monthly excess deaths were determined using the P-score metric. Spearman correlation was used to assess whether there is a relationship between the generated P-score and COVID-19 positivity rate. The all-cause mortality rate was higher during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period in Asembo [9.1 (95% CI, 8.2-10.0) vs. 7.8 (95% CI, 7.3-8.3) per 1000 person-years of observation, pyo]. In Kibera, the all-cause mortality rate was slightly lower during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period [2.6 (95% CI, 2.2-3.2 per 1000 pyo) vs. 3.1; 95% CI, 2.7-3.4 per 1000 pyo)]. An increase in all-cause mortality was observed (incidence rate ratio, IRR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04-1.31) in Asembo, unlike in Kibera (IRR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.71-1.09). The notable increase in mortality rate in Asembo was observed among persons aged 50 to 64 years (IRR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.95-3.52), persons aged 65 years and above (5.47; 95% CI, 4.60-6.50) and among females (IRR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.07-1.46). These age and gender differences were not observed in Kibera. We observed an increase in the mortality rate due to acute respiratory infection, including pneumonia (IRR, 1.45;95% CI, 1.03-2.04), and a reduction in the mortality rate due to pulmonary tuberculosis (IRR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.05-0.87) among older children and adults in Asembo. There was no statistically significant change in mortality rates due to leading specific causes of death in Kibera. Overall, during the COVID-19 period observed deaths were higher than expected deaths in Asembo (P-score = 6.0%) and lower than expected in Kibera (P-score = -22.3%).Using well-characterized populations in the two diverse geographic locations, we demonstrate a heterogenous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in Kenya. We observed more deaths than expected during the COVID-19 period in our rural site in western Kenya contrary to the urban site in Nairobi, the capital city in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is a significant cause of maternal mortality worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. It is essential to develop effective prediction models to identify women at risk of PPH and implement appropriate interventions to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. This study aims to predict the occurrence of postpartum hemorrhage using machine learning models based on antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal visit data obtained from the Kenya Antenatal and Postnatal Care Research Collective cohort. METHOD: Four machine learning models - logistic regression, naïve Bayes, decision tree, and random forest - were constructed using 67% training data (1,056/1,576). The training data was further split into 67% for model building and 33% cross validation. Once the models are built, the remaining 33% (520/1,576) independent test data was used for external validation to confirm the models' performance. Models were fine-tuned using feature selection through extra tree classifier technique. Model performance was assessed using accuracy, sensitivity, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. RESULT: The naïve Bayes model performed best with 0.95 accuracy, 0.97 specificity, and 0.76 AUC. Seven factors (anemia, limited prenatal care, hemoglobin concentrations, signs of pallor at intrapartum, intrapartum systolic blood pressure, intrapartum diastolic blood pressure, and intrapartum respiratory rate) were associated with PPH prediction in Kenyan population. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrates the potential of machine learning models in predicting PPH in the Kenyan population. Future studies with larger datasets and more PPH cases should be conducted to improve prediction performance of machine learning model. Such prediction algorithms would immensely help to construct a personalized obstetric path for each pregnant patient, improve resource allocation, and reduce maternal mortality and morbidity.

Introduction The main objective of this study is to conduct an individual patient data meta-analysis with collaborators from various countries to identify SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern associated with adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Methods Eligible studies included registries and single- or multi-site cohort studies that recruited pregnant and recently postpartum women with confirmed COVID-19. Studies must have enrolled at least 25 women within a defined catchment area. Studies also had to have data that overlapped more than a single COVID-19 variant time period. We invited principal investigators already participating in an ongoing sequential, prospective meta-analysis of perinatal COVID-19. Investigators shared individual patient data (IPD) with the technical team for review and analysis. We examined 31 outcomes related to: i) COVID-19 severity (n=5); ii) maternal morbidities including adverse birth outcomes (n=14); iii) fetal and neonatal morbidity and mortality (n=5) and iv) adverse birth outcomes (n=8). SARS-CoV-2 strains that have been identified as variants of concern (VOC) by the WHO were analyzed using the publicly available strain frequency data by Nextstrain.org and strains were classified as dominant when they were more than half of sequences in a given geographic area. We applied a 2-stage IPD meta-analytic framework to generate pooled relative risks, with 95% CI for each dominant variant and outcome pair when there were one or more studies with available data. Results Our data show that the Delta wave, compared to Omicron, was associated with a higher risk of all adverse COVID-19 severity outcomes in pregnancy including risk of hospitalization [RR 4.02 (95% CI 1.10, 14.69), n=1 study], risk of ICU admissions [RR 2.59 (95% CI 1.26, 5.30, n=3 studies], risk of critical care admission [RR 2.52 (95% CI 1.25, 5.08, n=3 studies], risk of needing ventilation [RR 3.96 (95% CI 1.47, 10.71), n=3 studies] and risk of pneumonia [RR 6.73 (95% CI 2.17, 20.90), n=3 studies]. The majority of maternal morbidity and mortality indicators were not at increased risk during any of the COVID-19 variant waves except hemorrhage, any Cesarean section, intrapartum Cesarean section and maternal composite outcome, although data was limited. Risk of fetal and neonatal morbidity and mortality did not show significant increases in risks during any of the COVID-19 waves except stillbirth and perinatal death during the Delta wave ([RR 4.84 (95% CI 1.37, 17.05, n=3 studies], [RR 6.03 (95%CI 1.63, 22.34), n=3 studies], respectively) when compared to the Pre-alpha wave. Adverse birth outcomes including very low birthweight and very preterm birth also showed increased risks during the Delta wave compared to the Pre-alpha wave. Discussion During periods of Delta strain predominance, all COVID-19 severity outcomes were more severe among pregnant women, compared to periods when other COVID-19 strains predominated. In addition, there are limited data comparing the impact of different variants on pregnancy outcomes. This highlights the importance of ongoing genomic surveillance among special populations. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

In areas of moderate to intense Plasmodium falciparum transmission, malaria in pregnancy remains a significant cause of low birth weight, stillbirth, and severe anaemia. Previously, fetal sex has been identified to modify the risks of maternal asthma, pre-eclampsia, and gestational diabetes. One study demonstrated increased risk of placental malaria in women carrying a female fetus. We investigated the association between fetal sex and malaria in pregnancy in 11 pregnancy studies conducted in sub-Saharan African countries and Papua New Guinea through meta-analysis using log binomial regression fitted to a random-effects model. Malaria infection during pregnancy and delivery was assessed using light microscopy, polymerase chain reaction, and histology. Five studies were observational studies and six were randomised controlled trials. Studies varied in terms of gravidity, gestational age at antenatal enrolment and bed net use. Presence of a female fetus was associated with malaria infection at enrolment by light microscopy (risk ratio 1.14 [95% confidence interval 1.04, 1.24]; P = 0.003; n = 11,729). Fetal sex did not associate with malaria infection when other time points or diagnostic methods were used. There is limited evidence that fetal sex influences the risk of malaria infection in pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Reliable mortality data are important for evaluating the impact of health interventions. However, data on mortality patterns among populations living in urban informal settlements are limited. OBJECTIVES: To examine the mortality patterns and trends in an urban informal settlement in Kibera, Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: Using data from a population-based surveillance platform we estimated overall and cause-specific mortality rates for all age groups using person-year-observation (pyo) denominators and using Poisson regression tested for trends in mortality rates over time. We compared associated mortality rates across groups using incidence rate ratios (IRR). Assignment of probable cause(s) of death was done using the InterVA-4 model. RESULTS: We registered 1134 deaths from 2009 to 2018, yielding a crude mortality rate of 4.4 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]4.2-4.7) per 1,000 pyo. Males had higher overall mortality rates than females (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.28-1.62). The highest mortality rate was observed among children aged < 12 months (41.5 per 1,000 pyo; 95% CI 36.6-46.9). All-cause mortality rates among children < 12 months were higher than that of children aged 1-4 years (IRR, 8.5; 95% CI, 6.95-10.35). The overall mortality rate significantly declined over the period, from 6.7 per 1,000 pyo (95% CI, 5.7-7.8) in 2009 to 2.7 (95% CI, 2.0-3.4) per 1,000 pyo in 2018. The most common cause of death was acute respiratory infections (ARI)/pneumonia (18.1%). Among children < 5 years, the ARI/pneumonia deaths rate declined significantly over the study period (5.06 per 1,000 pyo in 2009 to 0.61 per 1,000 pyo in 2018; p = 0.004). Similarly, death due to pulmonary tuberculosis among persons 5 years and above significantly declined (0.98 per 1,000 pyo in 2009 to 0.25 per 1,000 pyo in 2018; p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Overall and some cause-specific mortality rates declined over time, representing important public health successes among this population.

INTRODUCTION: Globally, many young women face the overlapping burden of HIV infection and unintended pregnancy. Protection against both may benefit from safe and effective multipurpose prevention technologies. METHODS: Healthy women ages 18-34 years, not pregnant, seronegative for HIV and hepatitis B surface antigen, not using hormonal contraception, and at low risk for HIV were randomized 2:2:1 to continuous use of a tenofovir/levonorgestrel (TFV/LNG), TFV, or placebo intravaginal ring (IVR). In addition to assessing genital and systemic safety, we determined TFV concentrations in plasma and cervicovaginal fluid (CVF) and LNG levels in serum using tandem liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. We further evaluated TFV pharmacodynamics (PD) through ex vivo CVF activity against both human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 and herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2, and LNG PD using cervical mucus quality markers and serum progesterone for ovulation inhibition. RESULTS: Among 312 women screened, 27 were randomized to use one of the following IVRs: TFV/LNG (n = 11); TFV-only (n = 11); or placebo (n = 5). Most screening failures were due to vaginal infections. The median days of IVR use was 68 [interquartile range (IQR), 36-90]. Adverse events (AEs) were distributed similarly among the three arms. There were two non-product related AEs graded >2. No visible genital lesions were observed. Steady state geometric mean amount (ssGMA) of vaginal TFV was comparable in the TFV/LNG and TFV IVR groups, 43,988 ng/swab (95% CI, 31,232, 61,954) and 30337 ng/swab (95% CI, 18,152, 50,702), respectively. Plasma TFV steady state geometric mean concentration (ssGMC) was <10 ng/ml for both TFV IVRs. In vitro, CVF anti-HIV-1 activity showed increased HIV inhibition over baseline following TFV-eluting IVR use, from a median of 7.1% to 84.4% in TFV/LNG, 15.0% to 89.5% in TFV-only, and -27.1% to -20.1% in placebo participants. Similarly, anti-HSV-2 activity in CVF increased >50 fold after use of TFV-containing IVRs. LNG serum ssGMC was 241 pg/ml (95% CI 185, 314) with rapid rise after TFV/LNG IVR insertion and decline 24-hours post-removal (586 pg/ml [95% CI 473, 726] and 87 pg/ml [95% CI 64, 119], respectively). CONCLUSION: TFV/LNG and TFV-only IVRs were safe and well tolerated among Kenyan women. Pharmacokinetics and markers of protection against HIV-1, HSV-2, and unintended pregnancy suggest the potential for clinical efficacy of the multipurpose TFV/LNG IVR. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03762382 [https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03762382].

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted health security program implementation and incremental gains achieved after the West African Ebola outbreak in 2016 across Africa. Following cancellation of in-person events, a multi-faceted intervention program was established in May 2020 by Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), the World Health Organisation, and partners to strengthen national COVID-19 response coordination through public health emergency operations centres (PHEOC) utilizing continuous learning, mentorship, and networking. We present the lessons learned and reflection points. A multi-partner program coordination group was established to facilitate interventions' delivery including webinars and virtual community of practice (COP). We retrieved data from Africa CDC's program repository, synthesised major findings and describe these per thematic area. The virtual COP recorded 1,968 members and approximately 300 engagements in its initial three months. Fifty-six webinar sessions were held, providing 97 cumulative learning hours to 12,715 unique participants. Zoom data showed a return rate of 85%; 67% of webinar attendees were from Africa, and about 26 interactions occurred between participants and facilitators per session. Of 4,084 (44%) participants responding to post-session surveys, over 95% rated the topics as being relevant to their work and contributing to improving their understanding of PHEOC operationalisation. In addition, 95% agreed that the simplicity of the training delivery encouraged a greater number of public health staff to participate and spread lessons from it to their own networks. This just-in-time, progressively adaptive multi-faceted learning and knowledge management approach in Africa, with a consequential global audience at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, served its intended audience, had a high number of participants from Africa and received greatly satisfactory feedback.

Typhoid fever burden can vary over time. Long-term data can inform prevention strategies; however, such data are lacking in many African settings. We reexamined typhoid fever incidence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) over a 10-year period in Kibera, a densely populated urban informal settlement where a high burden has been previously described. We used data from the Population Based Infectious Diseases Surveillance platform to estimate crude and adjusted incidence rates and prevalence of AMR in nearly 26,000 individuals of all ages. Demographic and healthcare-seeking information was collected through household visits. Blood cultures were processed for patients with acute fever or lower respiratory infection. Between 2010 and 2019, 16,437 participants were eligible for blood culture and 11,848 (72.1%) had a culture performed. Among 11,417 noncontaminated cultures (96.4%), 237 grew Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (2.1%). Overall crude and adjusted incidences were 95 and 188 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation (pyo), respectively. Annual crude incidence varied from 144 to 233 between 2010 and 2012 and from 9 to 55 between 2013 and 2018 and reached 130 per 100,000 pyo in 2019. Children 5-9 years old had the highest overall incidence (crude, 208; adjusted, 359 per 100,000 pyo). Among isolates tested, 156 of 217 were multidrug resistant (resistant to chloramphenicol, ampicillin, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole [71.9%]) and 6 of 223 were resistant to ciprofloxacin (2.7%). Typhoid fever incidence resurged in 2019 after a prolonged period of low rates, with the highest incidence among children. Typhoid fever control measures, including vaccines, could reduce morbidity in this setting.

Introduction: Urban informal settlements may be disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic due to overcrowding and other socioeconomic challenges that make adoption and implementation of public health mitigation measures difficult. We conducted a seroprevalence survey in the Kibera informal settlement, Nairobi, Kenya, to determine the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: Members of randomly selected households from an existing population-based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) provided blood specimens between 27 (th) November and 5 (th) December 2020. The specimens were tested for antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Seroprevalence estimates were weighted by age and sex distribution of the PBIDS population and accounted for household clustering. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for individual seropositivity.   Results: Consent was obtained from 523 individuals in 175 households, yielding 511 serum specimens that were tested. The overall weighted seroprevalence was 43.3% (95% CI, 37.4 - 49.5%) and did not vary by sex. Of the sampled households, 122(69.7%) had at least one seropositive individual. The individual seroprevalence increased by age from 7.6% (95% CI, 2.4 - 21.3%) among children (<5 years), 32.7% (95% CI, 22.9 - 44.4%) among children 5 - 9 years, 41.8% (95% CI, 33.0 - 51.1%) for those 10-19 years, and 54.9%(46.2 - 63.3%) for adults (≥20 years). Relative to those from medium-sized households (3 and 4 individuals), participants from large (≥5 persons) households had significantly increased odds of being seropositive, aOR, 1.98(95% CI, 1.17 - 1.58), while those from small-sized households (≤2 individuals) had increased odds but not statistically significant, aOR, 2.31 (95% CI, 0.93 - 5.74).  Conclusion: In densely populated urban settings, close to half of the individuals had an infection to SARS-CoV-2 after eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. This highlights the importance to prioritize mitigation measures, including COVID-19 vaccine distribution, in the crowded, low socioeconomic settings.

Despite large numbers of patients accessing antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Kenya, few studies have explored factors associated with virologic failure in Western Kenya, specifically. We undertook a study in Homa Bay County, Kenya to assess the extent of virologic treatment failure and factors associated with it. This was an observational retrospective study conducted from September 2020 to January 2021. Data were abstracted from the records of patients who had been on ART for at least six months at the time of data collection after systematic sampling stratified by age group at ART initiation (0-14 and 15+ years), using probability proportion to the numbers of patients attending the facility. Confirmed viral treatment failure was defined as viral load ≥1000 copies/ml based on two consecutive viral load measurements after at least three months of enhanced adherence counseling. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Cox regression modeling. Of the 2,007 patients sampled, 160 (8.0%) had confirmed virologic treatment failure. Significantly higher virologic treatment failure rates were identified among male patients 78/830 (9.4%) and children 115/782 (14.7%). Factors associated with virologic treatment failure (VTF), were age 0-14 years, adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 4.42, (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 3.12, 6.32), experience of treatment side effects AHD: 2.43, (95% CI, 1.76, 3.37), attending level 2/3 health facility, AHR: 1.87, (95% CI: 1.29, 2,72), and history of opportunistic infections (OIs), AHR: 1.81, (95% CI, 1.76, 3.37). Children, attendees of level 2/3 health facilities, patients with a history of OIs, and those experiencing treatment side-effects are at risk of VTF. Increased focus on children and adolescents on screening for drug resistance, administration of and adherence to medication, and on effective information and education on side-effects is critical. Additionally, there is need for increased training and support for health care workers at primary level care facilities.

We estimated the prevalence of extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales (ESCrE), carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in communities and hospitals in Kenya to identify human colonization with multidrug-resistant bacteria. Nasal and fecal specimen were collected from inpatients and community residents in Nairobi (urban) and Siaya (rural) counties. Swabs were plated on chromogenic agar to presumptively identify ESCrE, CRE and MRSA isolates. Confirmatory identification and antibiotic susceptibility testing were done using the VITEK®2 instrument. A total of 1999 community residents and 1023 inpatients were enrolled between January 2019 and March 2020. ESCrE colonization was higher in urban than rural communities (52 vs. 45%; P = 0.013) and in urban than rural hospitals (70 vs. 63%; P = 0.032). Overall, ESCrE colonization was ~ 18% higher in hospitals than in corresponding communities. CRE colonization was higher in hospital than community settings (rural: 7 vs. 1%; urban: 17 vs. 1%; with non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals), while MRSA was rarely detected (≤ 3% overall). Human colonization with ESCrE and CRE was common, particularly in hospitals and urban settings. MRSA colonization was uncommon. Evaluation of risk factors and genetic mechanisms of resistance can guide prevention and control efforts tailored to different environments.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is among the top causes of death in adolescent girls (10 to 19 years) globally. Adolescent motherhood is associated with increased risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. The interaction of malaria, adolescence, and pregnancy is especially relevant in malaria endemic areas, where rates of adolescent pregnancy are high. However, data on burden of malaria among adolescent girls are limited. This study aimed at investigating whether adolescent girls were at a greater risk of experiencing malaria-related outcomes in pregnancy-parasitaemia and clinical disease-than adult women. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An individual secondary participant-level meta-analysis was conducted using data from 5,804 pregnant women participating in 2 malaria prevention clinical trials in Benin, Gabon, Kenya, Mozambique, and Tanzania between 2009 and 2014. Of the sample, 1,201 participants were adolescent girls with a mean age of 17.5 years (standard deviation (SD) 1.3) and 886 (73.8%) of them primigravidae. Among the 4,603 adult women with mean age of 27.0 years (SD 5.4), 595 (12.9%) were primigravidae. Mean gestational age at enrolment was 20.2 weeks (SD 5.2) and 1,069 (18.4%) participants were HIV-infected. Women were followed monthly until the postpartum visit (1 month to 6 weeks after delivery). This study considered outcomes including clinical episodes during pregnancy, peripheral parasitaemia at delivery, and placental malaria. A 2-stage meta-analysis approach was followed by pooling single multivariable regression results into standard DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models. Adolescent girls were more likely than adult women to present with clinical malaria during pregnancy (incidence risk ratio (IRR) 1.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20; 2.39, p-value = 0.003, I2 = 0.0%, N = 4,092), peripheral parasitaemia at delivery (odds ratio (OR) 2.28, 95% CI 1.46; 3.55, p-value < 0.001, I2 = 0.0%, N = 3,977), and placental infection (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.31; 2.98, p-value = 0.001, I2 = 1.4%, N = 4,797). Similar associations were observed among the subgroup of HIV-uninfected participants: IRR 1.72 (95% CI 1.22; 2.45, p-value = 0.002, I2 = 0.0%, N = 3,531) for clinical malaria episodes, OR 2.39 (95% CI 1.49; 3.86, p-value < 0.001, I2 = 0.0%, N = 3,053) for peripheral parasitaemia, and OR 1.88 (95% CI 1.06 to 3.33, p-value = 0.03, I2 = 34.9%, N = 3,847) for placental malaria. Among HIV-infected subgroups statistically significant associations were not observed. Similar associations were found in the subgroup analysis by gravidity. The small sample size and outcome prevalence in specific countries limited the inclusion of some countries in the meta-analysis. Furthermore, peripheral parasitaemia and placental malaria presented a considerable level of missing data-12.6% and 18.2% of participants had missing data on those outcomes, respectively. Given the original scope of the clinical trials, asymptomatic malaria infection was only assessed at the end of pregnancy through peripheral and placental parasitaemia. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that adolescent girls in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are more prone to experience clinical malaria episodes during pregnancy and have peripheral malaria and placental infection at delivery than adult women. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, for the first time this study disaggregates figures and stratifies analyses by HIV infection. Similar associations were found for both HIV-infected and uninfected women, although those for HIV-infected participants were not statistically significant. Our finding suggests that adolescent girls may benefit from targeted malaria prevention strategies even before they become pregnant.

A high burden of Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) bacteremia has been reported from urban informal settlements in sub-Saharan Africa, yet little is known about the introduction of these strains to the region. Understanding regional differences in the predominant strains of S. Typhi can provide insight into the genomic epidemiology. We genetically characterized 310 S. Typhi isolates from typhoid fever surveillance conducted over a 12-year period (2007-2019) in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya, to assess the circulating strains, their antimicrobial resistance attributes, and how they relate to global S. Typhi isolates. Whole genome multi-locus sequence typing (wgMLST) identified 4 clades, with up to 303 pairwise allelic differences. The identified genotypes correlated with wgMLST clades. The predominant clade contained 290 (93.5%) isolates with a median of 14 allele differences (range 0-52) and consisted entirely of genotypes 4.3.1.1 and 4.3.1.2. Resistance determinants were identified exclusively in the predominant clade. Determinants associated with resistance to aminoglycosides were observed in 245 isolates (79.0%), sulphonamide in 243 isolates (78.4%), trimethoprim in 247 isolates (79.7%), tetracycline in 224 isolates (72.3%), chloramphenicol in 247 isolates (79.6%), β-lactams in 239 isolates (77.1%) and quinolones in 62 isolates (20.0%). Multidrug resistance (MDR) determinants (defined as determinants conferring resistance to ampicillin, chloramphenicol and cotrimoxazole) were found in 235 (75.8%) isolates. The prevalence of MDR associated genes was similar throughout the study period (2007-2012: 203, 76.3% vs 2013-2019: 32, 72.7%; Fisher's Exact Test: P = 0.5478, while the proportion of isolates harboring quinolone resistance determinants increased (2007-2012: 42, 15.8% and 2013-2019: 20, 45.5%; Fisher's Exact Test: P<0.0001) following a decline in S. Typhi in Kibera. Some isolates (49, 15.8%) harbored both MDR and quinolone resistance determinants. There were no determinants associated with resistance to cephalosporins or azithromycin detected among the isolates sequenced in this study. Plasmid markers were only identified in the main clade including IncHI1A and IncHI1B(R27) in 226 (72.9%) isolates, and IncQ1 in 238 (76.8%) isolates. Molecular clock analysis of global typhoid isolates and isolates from Kibera suggests that genotype 4.3.1 has been introduced multiple times in Kibera. Several genomes from Kibera formed a clade with genomes from Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Tanzania. The most recent common ancestor (MRCA) for these isolates was from around 1997. Another isolate from Kibera grouped with several isolates from Uganda, sharing a common ancestor from around 2009. In summary, S. Typhi in Kibera belong to four wgMLST clades one of which is frequently associated with MDR genes and this poses a challenge in treatment and control.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV) experience higher mortality and are more likely to have poor antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and unsuppressed viral load (VL) compared to adults. Enhanced adherence counseling (EAC) is a client-centered counseling strategy that aims to identify and address barriers to optimal ART use and can be tailored to the unique needs of adolescents. This study aimed to better understand adherence barriers among ALHIV with suspected treatment failure and their experience with EAC to inform future programming. METHODS: A qualitative study was conducted in Homa Bay and Turkana counties, Kenya in 2019 with adolescents and caregivers of children and adolescents living with HIV with suspected treatment failure after 6months on ART and who had received 1 EAC sessions. Sixteen focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted; five FGDs each were held with adolescents 12-14years (n=48) and 15-19years (n=36). Caregivers (n=52) participated in six FGDs. Additionally, 17 healthcare workers providing pediatric/adolescent HIV services participated in in-depth interviews. Audio recordings were transcribed and translated from Kiswahili or Dholuo into English and coded using MAXQDA software. Data were thematically analyzed by participant group. RESULTS: Participants identified adolescents' fear of being stigmatized due to their HIV status and their relationship with and level of support provided by caregivers. This underpinned and often undermined adolescents' ART-taking behavior and progress towards more independent medication management. Adolescents were generally satisfied with EAC and perceived it to be important in improving adherence and reducing VL. However, problems were noted with facility-based, individual EAC counseling, including judgmental attitudes of providers and difficulties traveling to and keeping EAC clinic appointments. Participant-suggested improvements to EAC included peer support groups in addition to individual counseling, allowing for greater flexibility in the timing and location of sessions and greater caregiver involvement. CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide opportunities to better tailor EAC interventions to promote improved ALHIV adherence and caregiver-supported disease management. Multi-prong EAC interventions that include peer-led and community approaches and target adolescent and caregiver treatment literacy may improve EAC delivery, address issues contributing to poor adherence, and position adolescents to achieve viral suppression. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT04915469.

In a phase-IIa trial, we investigated the influence of 90 days continuous-delivery tenofovir (TFV) intravaginal rings (IVRs) with/without levonorgestrel (LNG) on the genital microbiota of Kenyan women. Eligible women (n = 27; 18-34 years; negative for HIV, sexually transmitted infections, and Amsel-bacterial vaginosis) were randomized 2:2:1 to use of IVRs containing TFV, TFV/LNG, or placebo. Using vaginal wall and IVR swabs at IVR insertion and removal, the genital microbial composition was determined using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The presence of Candida spp. was determined using qPCR. The vaginal total bacterial burden appeared to decrease with TFV and TFV/LNG IVR use (log(10)0.57 and log(10)0.27 decrease respectively; p > 0.05). The TFV/LNG IVR was more 'stabilizing': 50% of the participants' microbiota community state types remained unchanged and 50% shifted towards higher Lactobacillus abundance. Specifically, TFV/LNG IVR use was accompanied by increased abundances of Lactobacillus gasseri/hominis/johnsonii/taiwanensis (16.3-fold) and L. fermentum/reuteri/vaginalis (7.0-fold; all p < 0.01). A significant shift in the overall microbial α-diversity or β-diversity was not observed for either IVR, and IVR use did not influence Candida spp. prevalence. TFV/LNG and TFV IVRs did not adversely affect the genital microbiota and are safe to use. Our findings support further studies assessing their efficacy in preventing HIV/HSV-2 and unintended pregnancies.

BACKGROUND: Spatial repellents are widely used for prevention of mosquito bites and evidence is building on their public health value, but their efficacy against malaria incidence has never been evaluated in Africa. To address this knowledge gap, a trial to evaluate the efficacy of Mosquito Shield™, a spatial repellent incorporating transfluthrin, was developed for implementation in Busia County, western Kenya where long-lasting insecticidal net coverage is high and baseline malaria transmission is moderate to high year-round. METHODS: This trial is designed as a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blinded clinical trial. Sixty clusters will be randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive spatial repellent or placebo. A total of 6120 children aged ≥6 months to 10 years of age will be randomly selected from the study clusters, enrolled into an active cohort (baseline, cohort 1, and cohort 2), and sampled monthly to determine time to first infection by smear microscopy. Each cohort following the implementation of the intervention will be split into two groups, one to estimate direct effect of the spatial repellent and the other to estimate degree of diversion of mosquitoes and malaria transmission to unprotected persons. Malaria incidence in each cohort will be estimated and compared (primary indicator) to determine benefit of using a spatial repellent in a high, year-round malaria transmission setting. Mosquitoes will be collected monthly using CDC light traps to determine if there are entomological correlates of spatial repellent efficacy that may be useful for the evaluation of new spatial repellents. Quarterly human landing catches will assess behavioral effects of the intervention. DISCUSSION: Findings will serve as the first cluster-randomized controlled trial powered to detect spatial repellent efficacy to reduce malaria in sub-Saharan Africa where transmission rates are high, insecticide-treated nets are widely deployed, and mosquitoes are resistant to insecticides. Results will be submitted to the World Health Organization Vector Control Advisory Group for assessment of public health value towards an endorsement to recommend inclusion of spatial repellents in malaria control programs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04766879 . Registered February 23, 2021.

BACKGROUND: Model-based small area estimation methods can help generate parameter estimates at the district level, where planned population survey sample sizes are not large enough to support direct estimates of HIV prevalence with adequate precision. We computed district-level HIV prevalence estimates and their 95% confidence intervals for districts in Uganda. METHODS: Our analysis used direct survey and model-based estimation methods, including Fay-Herriot (area-level) and Battese-Harter-Fuller (unit-level) small area models. We used regression analysis to assess for consistency in estimating HIV prevalence. We use a ratio analysis of the mean square error and the coefficient of variation of the estimates to evaluate precision. The models were applied to Uganda Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment 2016/2017 data with auxiliary information from the 2016 Lot Quality Assurance Sampling survey and antenatal care data from district health information system datasets for unit-level and area-level models, respectively. RESULTS: Estimates from the model-based and the direct survey methods were similar. However, direct survey estimates were unstable compared with the model-based estimates. Area-level model estimates were more stable than unit-level model estimates. The correlation between unit-level and direct survey estimates was (β1 = 0.66, r2 = 0.862), and correlation between area-level model and direct survey estimates was (β1 = 0.44, r2 = 0.698). The error associated with the estimates decreased by 37.5% and 33.1% for the unit-level and area-level models, respectively, compared to the direct survey estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Although the unit-level model estimates were less precise than the area-level model estimates, they were highly correlated with the direct survey estimates and had less standard error associated with estimates than the area-level model. Unit-level models provide more accurate and reliable data to support local decision-making when unit-level auxiliary information is available.

BACKGROUND: In malaria endemic regions in Kenya, pregnant women are offered long-lasting insecticidal nets and intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) at antenatal care (ANC) to prevent the adverse effects of malaria. Fears of growing SP resistance have heightened the search for alternative strategies. The implementation feasibility of intermittent screening and treatment (ISTp) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) in routine ANC settings was evaluated using qualitative and quantitative methods, including the exploration of healthcare provider and pregnant women's perceptions. METHODS: Qualitative methods included data from 13 focus group discussions (FGDs) with pregnant women and 43 in-depth interviews with healthcare providers delivering ANC services. FGDs were conducted with women who had received either ISTp-DP or current policy (IPTp-SP). Thematic analysis was used to explore experiences among women and providers and findings were used to provide insights into results of the parallel quantitative study. RESULTS: Women were accepting of testing with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and receiving treatment if malaria positive. Providers perceived DP to be an effective drug and well tolerated by women. Some providers indicated a preference for test and treat strategies to reduce unnecessary exposure to medication in pregnancy, others preferred a hybrid strategy combining screening at every ANC visit followed by IPTp-SP for women who tested negative, due to the perception that RDTs missed some infections and concerns about the growing resistance to SP. Testing with RDTs during ANC was appreciated as it was perceived to reduce wait times. The positive attitude of healthcare providers towards ISTp supports findings from the quantitative study that showed a high proportion (90%) of women were tested at ANC. There were concerns about affordability of DP and the availability of sufficient RDT stocks. CONCLUSION: In ANC settings, healthcare providers and pregnant women found ISTp-DP to be an acceptable strategy for preventing malaria in pregnancy when compared with IPTp-SP. DP was considered an effective anti-malarial and a suitable alternative to IPTp-SP in the context of SP resistance. Despite providers' lack of confidence in RDT results at current levels of sensitivity and specificity, the quantitative findings show their willingness to test women routinely at ANC.

BACKGROUND: Maternal immunization is a key strategy for reducing morbidity and mortality associated with infectious diseases in mothers and their newborns. Recent developments in the science and safety of maternal vaccinations have made possible development of new maternal vaccines ready for introduction in low- and middle-income countries. Decisions at the policy level remain the entry point for maternal immunization programs. We describe the policy and decision-making process in Kenya for the introduction of new vaccines, with particular emphasis on maternal vaccines, and identify opportunities to improve vaccine policy formulation and implementation process. METHODS: We conducted 29 formal interviews with government officials and policy makers, including high-level officials at the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group, and Ministry of Health officials at national and county levels. All interviews were recorded and transcribed. We analyzed the qualitative data using NVivo 11.0 software. RESULTS: All key informants understood the vaccine policy formulation and implementation processes, although national officials appeared more informed compared to county officials. County officials reported feeling left out of policy development. The recent health system decentralization had both positive and negative impacts on the policy process; however, the negative impacts outweighed the positive impacts. Other factors outside vaccine policy environment such as rumours, sociocultural practices, and anti-vaccine campaigns influenced the policy development and implementation process. CONCLUSIONS: Public policy development process is complex and multifaceted by its nature. As Kenya prepares for introduction of other maternal vaccines, it is important that the identified policy gaps and challenges are addressed.

BACKGROUND: Although the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic progressed more slowly in Africa than the rest of the world, by December, 2020, the second wave appeared to be much more aggressive with many more cases. To date, the pandemic situation in all 55 African Union (AU) Member States has not been comprehensively reviewed. We aimed to evaluate reported COVID-19 epidemiology data to better understand the pandemic's progression in Africa. METHODS: We did a cross-sectional analysis between Feb 14 and Dec 31, 2020, using COVID-19 epidemiological, testing, and mitigation strategy data reported by AU Member States to assess trends and identify the response and mitigation efforts at the country, regional, and continent levels. We did descriptive analyses on the variables of interest including cumulative and weekly incidence rates, case fatality ratios (CFRs), tests per case ratios, growth rates, and public health and social measures in place. FINDINGS: As of Dec 31, 2020, African countries had reported 2 763 421 COVID-19 cases and 65 602 deaths, accounting for 3·4% of the 82 312 150 cases and 3·6% of the 1 798 994 deaths reported globally. Nine of the 55 countries accounted for more than 82·6% (2 283 613) of reported cases. 18 countries reported CFRs greater than the global CFR (2·2%). 17 countries reported test per case ratios less than the recommended ten to 30 tests per case ratio range. At the peak of the first wave in Africa in July, 2020, the mean daily number of new cases was 18 273. As of Dec 31, 2020, 40 (73%) countries had experienced or were experiencing their second wave of cases with the continent reporting a mean of 23 790 daily new cases for epidemiological week 53. 48 (96%) of 50 Member States had five or more stringent public health and social measures in place by April 15, 2020, but this number had decreased to 36 (72%) as of Dec 31, 2020, despite an increase in cases in the preceding month. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis showed that the African continent had a more severe second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic than the first, and highlights the importance of examining multiple epidemiological variables down to the regional and country levels over time. These country-specific and regional results informed the implementation of continent-wide initiatives and supported equitable distribution of supplies and technical assistance. Monitoring and analysis of these data over time are essential for continued situational awareness, especially as Member States attempt to balance controlling COVID-19 transmission with ensuring stable economies and livelihoods. FUNDING: None.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance varies with cultural, socio-economic, and environmental factors. We examined these relationships in Kibera, an informal settlement in Nairobi-Kenya, characterized by high population density, high burden of respiratory disease and diarrhea. METHODS: Two-hundred households were enrolled in a 5-month longitudinal study. One adult (≥ 18 years) and one child (≤ 5 years) participated per household. Biweekly interviews (n = 1516) that included questions on water, sanitation, hygiene, and antibiotic use in the previous two weeks were conducted, and 2341 stool, 2843 hand swabs and 1490 drinking water samples collected. Presumptive E. coli (n = 34,042) were isolated and tested for susceptibility to nine antibiotics. RESULTS: Eighty percent of presumptive E. coli were resistant to ≥ 3 antibiotic classes. Stool isolates were resistant to trimethoprim (mean: 81%), sulfamethoxazole (80%), ampicillin (68%), streptomycin (60%) and tetracycline (55%). Ninety-seven households reported using an antibiotic in at least one visit over the study period for a total of 144 episodes and 190 antibiotic doses. Enrolled children had five times the number of episodes reported by enrolled adults (96 vs. 19). Multivariable linear mixed-effects models indicated that children eating soil from the household yard and the presence of informal hand-washing stations were associated with increased numbers of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria (counts increasing by 0·27-0·80 log(10) and 0·22-0·51 log(10) respectively, depending on the antibiotic tested). Rainy conditions were associated with reduced carriage of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria (1·19 to 3·26 log(10) depending on the antibiotic tested). CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic use provided little explanatory power for the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance. Transmission of resistant bacteria in this setting through unsanitary living conditions likely overwhelms incremental changes in antibiotic use. Under such circumstances, sanitation, hygiene, and disease transmission are the limiting factors for reducing the prevalence of resistant bacteria.