The emerging field of outbreak analytics calls attention to the need for data from multiple sources to inform evidence-based decision making in managing infectious diseases outbreaks. To date, these approaches have not systematically integrated evidence from social and behavioural sciences. During the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, an innovative solution to systematic and timely generation of integrated and actionable social science evidence emerged in the form of the Cellulle d'Analyse en Sciences Sociales (Social Sciences Analytics Cell) (CASS), a social science analytical cell. CASS worked closely with data scientists and epidemiologists operating under the Epidemiological Cell to produce integrated outbreak analytics (IOA), where quantitative epidemiological analyses were complemented by behavioural field studies and social science analyses to help better explain and understand drivers and barriers to outbreak dynamics. The primary activity of the CASS was to conduct operational social science analyses that were useful to decision makers. This included ensuring that research questions were relevant, driven by epidemiological data from the field, that research could be conducted rapidly (ie, often within days), that findings were regularly and systematically presented to partners and that recommendations were co-developed with response actors. The implementation of the recommendations based on CASS analytics was also monitored over time, to measure their impact on response operations. This practice paper presents the CASS logic model, developed through a field-based externally led consultation, and documents key factors contributing to the usefulness and adaption of CASS and IOA to guide replication for future outbreaks.

Early changes in nutritional status may be predictive of subsequent HIV disease progression in people living with HIV (PLHIV). In addition to conventional anthropometric assessment using body mass index (BMI) and mid-upper arm circumferences (MUAC), measures of strength and fatigability may detect earlier changes in nutrition status which predict HIV disease progression. This study aims to examine the association between various nutritional metrics relevant in resource-scarce setting and HIV disease progression. The HIV disease progression outcome was defined as any occurrence of an incident AIDS-defining illnesses (ADI) among antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naive PLHIV. From 2008-2009, HIV+ Zambian adult men and non-pregnant women were followed for 9 months at a Doctors without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontiers, MSF) HIV clinic in Kapiri Mposhi, Zambia. Since the study was conducted in the time period when former WHO recommendations on ART (i.e., </=200 CD4 cell count as opposed to treating all individuals regardless of CD4 cell count or disease stage) were followed, caution should be applied when considering the implications from this study's results to improve HIV case management under current clinical guidelines, or when comparing findings from this study with studies conducted in recent years. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the associations between baseline nutritional measurements and the outcome of incident ADI. Self-reported loss of appetite study (AOR 1.90, 95% CI 1.04, 3.45, P = 0.036) and moderate wasting based on MUAC classification (AOR 2.40, 95% CI 1.13, 5.10, P = 0.022) were independently associated with increased odds of developing incident ADI within 9 months, while continuous increments (in psi) of median handgrip strength (AOR 0.74, 95%CI 0.60, 0.91, P = 0.004) was independently associated with decreased odds of incident ADI only among women. The association between low BMI and the short-term outcome of ADI was attenuated after controlling for these nutritional indicators. These findings warrant further research to validate the consistency of these observed associations among larger ART-naive HIV-infected populations, as well as to develop nutritional assessment tools for identifying disease progression risk among ART-naive PLHIV.

The 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa highlighted challenges faced by the global response to a large public health emergency. Consequently, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention established the Global Rapid Response Team (GRRT) to strengthen emergency response capacity to global health threats, thereby ensuring global health security. Dedicated GRRT staff can be rapidly mobilized for extended missions, improving partner coordination and the continuity of response operations. A large, agencywide roster of surge staff enables rapid mobilization of qualified responders with wide-ranging experience and expertise. Team members are offered emergency response training, technical training, foreign language training, and responder readiness support. Recent response missions illustrate the breadth of support the team provides. GRRT serves as a model for other countries and is committed to strengthening emergency response capacity to respond to outbreaks and emergencies worldwide, thereby enhancing global health security.

In January 2016, the Angola Ministry of Health reported an outbreak of yellow fever, a vaccine-preventable disease caused by a flavivirus transmitted through the bite of Aedes or Haemagogus species mosquitoes (1,2). Although endemic in rural areas of Angola, the last outbreak was in 1988 when 37 cases and 14 deaths were reported (3). Large yellow fever outbreaks occur when the virus is introduced by an infected person to an urban area with a high density of mosquitoes and a large, crowded population with little or no immunity (2). By May 8, a total of 2,267 suspected cases were reported nationally, of which 696 (31%) were laboratory confirmed; 293 (13%) persons died (4). Most (n = 445, 64%) confirmed cases lived in Luanda Province. As part of the public health response that included strengthened surveillance, vector control, case management, and social mobilization (1), mass vaccination campaigns were implemented in Luanda during February 2–April 16. Despite >90% administrative vaccination coverage (the number of vaccine doses administered divided by the most recent census estimates for the target population), the province continued to report cases (4). Field teams reported low numbers of men being vaccinated, which was a concern because of a preliminary analysis that indicated approximately 70% of confirmed yellow fever cases occurred in males. A rapid assessment to identify and address potential barriers to vaccination among men was designed, using a knowledge, attitudes, and practices survey. | During April 23–25, 2016, a knowledge, attitudes, and practices rapid assessment was administered to men at 10 sites in the four municipalities of Luanda with the greatest number of confirmed cases: Viana, Kilamba Kiaxi, Cacuaco, and Cazenga. The range for administrative vaccination coverage was 22%–137%. Survey sites included public transportation stops, public markets, main streets, and town squares. Interviewers consecutively sampled men of working age while walking in separate trajectories from the site center until the interviewers reached a target of 30 interviews. The questionnaire consisted of multiple choice and open-ended questions on demographics, disease knowledge, vaccination status, vaccination practices, and reasons for nonvaccination, as appropriate.

The treatment of uncomplicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) requires substantial amounts of ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF). In 2009, Action Contre la Faim anticipated a shortfall of RUTF for their nutrition programme in Myanmar. A low-dose RUTF protocol to treat children with uncomplicated SAM was adopted. In this protocol, RUTF was dosed according to beneficiary's body weight, until the child reached a Weight-for-Height z-score of ≥-3 and mid-upper arm circumference ≥110 mm. From this point, the child received a fixed quantity of RUTF per day, independent of body weight until discharge. Specific measures were implemented as part of this low-dose RUTF protocol in order to improve service quality and beneficiary support. We analysed individual records of 3083 children treated from July 2009 to January 2010. Up to 90.2% of children recovered, 2.0% defaulted and 0.9% were classified as non-responders. No deaths were recorded. Among children who recovered, median [IQR] length of stay and weight gain were 42 days [28; 56] and 4.0 g kg-1 day-1 [3.0; 5.7], respectively. Multivariable logistic regression showed that children older than 48 months had higher odds of non-response to treatment than younger children (adjusted odds ratio: 3.51, 95% CI: 1.67-7.42). Our results indicate that a low-dose RUTF protocol, combined with specific measures to ensure good service quality and beneficiary support, was successful in treating uncomplicated SAM in this setting. This programmatic experience should be validated by randomised studies aiming to test, quantify and attribute the effect of the protocol adaptation and programme improvements presented here.

Given the growing scale and complexity of responses to humanitarian crises, it is important to develop a stronger evidence base for health interventions in such contexts. Humanitarian crises present unique challenges to rigorous and effective research, but there are substantial opportunities for scientific advance. Studies need to focus where the translation of evidence from noncrisis scenarios is not viable and on ethical ways of determining what happens in the absence of an intervention. Robust methodologies suited to crisis settings have to be developed and used to assess interventions with potential for delivery at scale. Strengthening research capacity in the low- to middle-income countries that are vulnerable to crises is also crucial.

BACKGROUND: The refugee complexes of Dadaab, Kenya, and Dollo-Ado, Ethiopia, experienced measles outbreaks during June-November 2011, following a large influx of refugees from Somalia. METHODS: Line-lists from health facilities were used to describe the outbreak in terms of age, sex, vaccination status, arrival date, attack rates (ARs), and case fatality ratios (CFRs) for each camp. Vaccination data and coverage surveys were reviewed. RESULTS: In Dadaab, 1370 measles cases and 32 deaths (CFR, 2.3%) were reported. A total of 821 cases (60.1%) were aged ≥15 years, 906 (82.1%) arrived to the camps in 2011, and 1027 (79.6%) were unvaccinated. Camp-specific ARs ranged from 212 to 506 cases per 100 000 people. In Dollo-Ado, 407 cases and 23 deaths (CFR, 5.7%) were reported. Adults aged ≥15 years represented 178 cases (43.7%) and 6 deaths (26.0%). Camp-specific ARs ranged from 21 to 1100 cases per 100 000 people. Immunization activities that were part of the outbreak responses initially targeted children aged 6 months to 14 years and were later expanded to include individuals up to 30 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The target age group for outbreak response-associated immunization activities at the start of the outbreaks was inconsistent with the numbers of cases among unvaccinated adolescents and adults in the new population. In displacement of populations from areas affected by measles outbreaks, health authorities should consider vaccinating adults in routine and outbreak response activities.

BACKGROUND: Measles among displaced, malnourished populations can result in a high case fatality ratio (CFR). In 2011, a large measles outbreak occurred in Dadaab, Kenya among refugees fleeing famine and conflict in Somalia. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of measles deaths among hospitalized patients during the outbreak. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study design was used to investigate measles mortality among hospitalized measles patients with a date of rash onset during June 6-September 10, 2011. Data were abstracted from medical records and a measles case was defined as an illness with fever, maculopapular rash, and either cough, coryza or conjunctivitis. Vaccination status was determined by patient or parental recall. Independent predictors of mortality were identified using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 388 hospitalized measles patients, 188 (49%) were from hospital X, 70 (18%) from hospital Y, and 130 (34%) from hospital Z; median age was 22 years, 192 (50%) were 15-29 years of age, and 22 (6%) were vaccinated. The mean number of days from rash onset to hospitalization varied by hospital (hospital X=5, hospital Y=3, hospital Z=6 [p<0.0001]). Independent risk factors for measles mortality were neurological complications (OR=12.8, 95% CI =3.1-52.4), acute malnutrition (OR=7.6, 95% CI=1.3-44.3), and admission to hospital Z (OR=4.2, 95% CI=1.3-13.2). CONCLUSIONS: Among Somali refugees, in addition to timely vaccination at border crossing points, early detection and treatment of acute malnutrition, and proper management of measles cases may reduce measles mortality.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is transmitted through the fecal-oral route and is a common cause of viral hepatitis in developing countries. HEV outbreaks have been documented among forcibly displaced persons living in camps in East Africa, but for >10 years, no cases were documented among Somali refugees (1,2). On August 15, 2012, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Nairobi, Kenya, was notified of a cluster of acute jaundice syndrome (AJS) cases in refugee camps in Dadaab, Kenya. On September 5, a CDC epidemiologist assisted the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and its partners in assessing AJS case-patients in the camp, enhancing surveillance, and improving medical management of case-patients. We present the epidemiologic and laboratory findings for the AJS cases (defined as acute onset of scleral icterus not due to another underlying condition) identified during this outbreak. | Dadaab refugee camp is located in eastern Kenya near the border with Somalia. It has existed since 1991 and is the largest refugee camp in the world. Dadaab is composed of 5 smaller camps: Dagahaley, Hagadera, Ifo, Ifo II, and Kambioos. As of December 2012, a total of 460,000 refugees, mainly Somalians, were living in the camps; >25% were recent arrivals displaced by the mid-2011 famine in the Horn of Africa (3). Overcrowding and poor sanitation have led to outbreaks of enteric diseases, including cholera and shigellosis (4); in September 2012, an outbreak of cholera occurred simultaneously with the AJS outbreak.