Key populations (KP), such as female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM) can engage in multiple behaviors associated with HIV risk, but they are typically categorized by a single defining behavior, i.e., selling sex and sex with a man, respectively. We estimated the prevalence of engaging in multiple KP defining behaviors such as buying/selling sex, receptive anal sex, and injection drug use (IDU) among KP in Uganda. Data were collected at survey offices in four sites (Kampala, Jinja, Mbarara, and Masaka) through respondent-driven sampling. Data across multiple sites were combined and reweighted based on the combined sample size for each population. We fitted weighted multinomial logistic models for additional KP defining behaviors using demographics as predictors, and the simplest plausible model was identified for each KP using the Bayesian Information Criterion. Among FSW and sexually exploited minors under 18 years of age, 21.8% (CI: 20.1-23.5%) ever engaged in anal sex and 12.0% (CI: 10.6-13.3%) ever engaged in IDU in our model. Among MSM, 54.8% (CI: 52.0-57.7%) ever engaged in buying/selling sex and 11.0% (CI: 9.3-12.8%) ever engaged in IDU in the model. While KP are generally viewed as independent groups, our findings demonstrate that KP defining behaviors such as buying/selling sex, anal sex with a man, and IDU are shared across populations, with buying/selling sex particularly common among MSM. Consideration of comprehensive behaviors by outreach and service providers may better inform HIV risk reduction and prevention services for key populations.

Antimalarial therapeutic efficacy studies are vital for monitoring drug efficacy in malaria-endemic regions. The WHO recommends genotyping polymorphic markers including msp-1, msp-2, and glurp for distinguishing recrudescences from reinfections. Recently, WHO proposed replacing glurp with microsatellites (Poly-α, PfPK2, TA1). However, suitable combinations with msp-1 and msp-2, as well as the performance of different algorithms for classifying recrudescence, have not been systematically assessed. This study investigated various microsatellites alongside msp-1 and msp-2 for molecular correction and compared different genotyping algorithms across three sites in Uganda. Microsatellites 313, Poly-α, and 383 exhibited the highest diversity, while PfPK2 and Poly-α revealed elevated multiplicity of infection (MOI) across all sites. The 3/3 match-counting algorithm classified significantly fewer recrudescences than both the ≥ 2/3 and Bayesian algorithms at probability cutoffs of ≥ 0.7 and ≥ 0.8 (P < 0.05). The msp-1/msp-2/2490 combination identified more recrudescences using the ≥ 2/3 and 3/3 algorithms in the artemether-lumefantrine (AL) treatment arm, while msp-1/msp-2/glurp combination classified more cases of recrudescence using the ≥ 2/3 in the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) arm. Microsatellites PfPK2 and Poly-α, potentially sensitive to detecting minority clones, are promising replacements for glurp. Discrepancies in recrudescence classification between match-counting and Bayesian algorithms highlight the need for standardized PCR correction practices.

During population-based HIV impact assessments (PHIAs), some participants who self-reported testing HIV-positive (PSRP) tested negative in one or more subsequent survey HIV tests. These unexpected discrepancies between their self-reported results and the survey results draw into question the validity of either the self-reported status or the test results. We analyzed PSRP with negative test results aged 15-59 years old using data collected from 2015 to 2021 in 13 countries, assessing prevalence, self-report status, survey HIV status, viral load, rapid tests and confirmatory tests, and answers to follow-up questions (such as years on treatment). Across these surveys, 19,026 participants were PSRP, and 256 (1.3%) of these were concluded to be HIV-negative after additional survey-based testing and review. PSRP determined to be HIV-negative trended higher in countries with a higher HIV prevalence, but their number was small enough that accepting self-reported HIV-positive status without testing would not have significantly affected the prevalence estimates for HIV or viral load suppression. Additionally, using more detailed information for Uganda, we examined 107 PSRP with any negative test results and found no significant correlation with years on treatment or age. Using these details, we examined support for the possible reasons for these discrepancies beyond misdiagnosis and false reporting. These findings suggest that those conducting surveys would benefit from a nuanced understanding of HIV testing among PSRP to conduct surveys ethically and produce high-quality results.

On January 28, 2003, the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the largest commitment by any nation to address a single disease in history, was announced.* In April 2004, the first person in the world to receive PEPFAR-supported antiretroviral therapy (ART) was a man aged 34 years in Uganda. Effective ART reduces morbidity and mortality among persons with HIV infection (1) and prevents both mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) (2) and sexual transmission once viral load is suppressed to undetectable levels (<200 viral copies/mL) (3). By September 2022, more than 1.3 million persons with HIV infection in Uganda were receiving PEPFAR-supported ART, an increase of approximately 5,000% from September 2004. As indicators of the ART program's effectiveness, a proxy MTCT rate decreased 77%, from 6.4% in 2010 to 1.5% in 2022, and the viral load suppression rate (<1,000 viral copies/mL) increased 3%, from 91% in 2016 to 94% in September 2022. During 2004-2022, ART scale-up helped avert nearly 500,000 HIV infections, including more than 230,000 infections among HIV-exposed infants, and approximately 600,000 HIV-related deaths. Going forward, efforts will focus on identifying all persons with HIV infection and rapidly linking them to effective ART. PEPFAR remains committed to continued strong partnership with the Government of Uganda, civil society, and other development partners toward sustainable solutions aligned with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) fast-track strategy to ending the global AIDS epidemic by 2030(†) and safeguarding impact achieved in the long term.

INTRODUCTION: Achieving optimal HIV outcomes, as measured by global 90-90-90 targets, that is awareness of HIV-positive status, receipt of antiretroviral (ARV) therapy among aware and viral load (VL) suppression among those on ARVs, respectively, is critical. However, few data from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are available on older people (50+) living with HIV (OPLWH). We examined 90-90-90 progress by age, 15-49 (as a comparison) and 50+ years, with further analyses among 50+ (55-59, 60-64, 65+ vs. 50-54), in 13 countries (Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). METHODS: Using data from nationally representative Population-based HIV Impact Assessments, conducted between 2015and 2019, participants from randomly selected households provided demographic and clinical information and whole blood specimens for HIV serology, VL and ARV testing. Survey weighted outcomes were estimated for 90-90-90 targets. Country-specific Poisson regression models examined 90-90-90 variation among OPLWH age strata. RESULTS: Analyses included 24,826 HIV-positive individuals (15-49 years: 20,170; 50+ years: 4656). The first, second and third 90 outcomes were achieved in 1, 10 and 5 countries, respectively, by those aged 15-49, while OPLWH achieved outcomes in 3, 13 and 12 countries, respectively. Among those aged 15-49, women were more likely to achieve 90-90-90 targets than men; however, among OPLWH, men were more likely to achieve first and third 90 targets than women, with second 90 achievement being equivalent. Country-specific 90-90-90 regression models among OPLWH demonstrated minimal variation by age stratum across 13 countries. Among OLPWH, no first 90 target differences were noted by age strata; three countries varied in the second 90 by older age strata but not in a consistent direction; one country showed higher achievement of the third 90 in an older age stratum. CONCLUSIONS: While OPLWH in these 13 countries were slightly more likely than younger people to be aware of their HIV-positive status (first 90), this target was not achieved in most countries. However, OPLWH achieved treatment (second 90) and VL suppression (third 90) targets in more countries than PLWH <50. Findings support expanded HIV testing, prevention and treatment services to meet ongoing OPLWH health needs in SSA.

BACKGROUND: Female sex workers are vulnerable to HIV, sexually transmitted diseases, and unintended pregnancies; however, the literature on female sex workers (FSW) focuses primarily on HIV and is limited regarding these other health issues. METHODS: We conducted a respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey during April-December 2012 to characterize the reproductive health of and access to contraceptives FSW in Kampala, Uganda. Eligibility criteria included age15years, residence in greater Kampala, and having sold sex to men in6months. Data were analyzed using RDS-Analyst. Survey logistic regression was used in SAS. RESULTS: We enrolled 1,497 FSW with a median age of 27years. Almost all FSW had been pregnant at least once. An estimated 33.8% of FSW were currently not using any form of family planning (FP) to prevent pregnancy; 52.7% used at least moderately effective FP. Among those using FP methods, injectable contraception was the most common form of FP used (55.4%), followed by condoms (19.7%), oral contraception (18.1%), and implants (3.7%). HIV prevalence was 31.4%, syphilis prevalence was 6.2%, and 89.8% had at least one symptom of a sexually transmitted disease in the last six months. Using at least a moderately effective method of FP was associated with accessing sexually transmitted disease treatment in a stigma-free environment in the last six months (aOR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1-2.4), giving birth to 2-3 children (aOR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.4-4.8) or 4-5 children (aOR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.4-5.9). It is plausible that those living with HIV are also less likely than those without it to be using a moderately effective method of FP (aOR: 0.7, 95% CI: 0.5-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: The provision of integrated HIV and sexual and reproductive health services in a non-stigmatizing environment has the potential to facilitate increased health service uptake by FSW and decrease missed opportunities for service provision.

Despite remarkable progress in controlling HIV and TB, Uganda is one of the 30 high-burden TB/HIV countries. Approximately 53,000 Ugandans had a new HIV diagnosis in 2019, and approximately 88,000 Ugandans had a TB diagnosis in 2020. Fellows in the Uganda Public Health Fellowship Program (UPHFP) work directly with the Ministry of Health AIDS and TB Control Programs, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UPHFP supervisors, and implementing partners to investigate and evaluate HIV-related and TB-related issues. These activities have contributed to the Uganda HIV and TB programs. UPHFP fellows complete projects in 7 competency domains, including outbreak investigations, surveillance evaluations, and data quality improvement. Priority HIV/AIDS/TB information gaps/topics are identified in consultation with key stakeholders, and fellows complete projects to guide program improvements and policy decisions. During 2015-2020, UPHFP fellows implemented 127 HIV and TB projects covering key program areas in AIDS and TB control programs, including care and treatment (16 projects), TB/HIV (18), prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (24), key and priority populations (9), pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis (7), adolescent girls and young women (6), service delivery (13), and diagnosis of TB including drug-resistant TB and TB in high-risk groups (32). These projects have helped improve retention, quality of care, and treatment outcomes for people living with HIV, HIV and TB coinfected patients, and TB patients. They have also contributed to the decrease in pediatric TB and infant HIV positivity rates and improved service delivery for key populations. UPHFP results were disseminated to relevant stakeholders such as government departments, implementing partners, districts, and the general community and guided decision making. UPHFP has significantly improved HIV and TB control in Uganda. Other countries with similar programs could benefit from this approach and utilize program fellows to support HIV and TB control.

BACKGROUND: Model-based small area estimation methods can help generate parameter estimates at the district level, where planned population survey sample sizes are not large enough to support direct estimates of HIV prevalence with adequate precision. We computed district-level HIV prevalence estimates and their 95% confidence intervals for districts in Uganda. METHODS: Our analysis used direct survey and model-based estimation methods, including Fay-Herriot (area-level) and Battese-Harter-Fuller (unit-level) small area models. We used regression analysis to assess for consistency in estimating HIV prevalence. We use a ratio analysis of the mean square error and the coefficient of variation of the estimates to evaluate precision. The models were applied to Uganda Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment 2016/2017 data with auxiliary information from the 2016 Lot Quality Assurance Sampling survey and antenatal care data from district health information system datasets for unit-level and area-level models, respectively. RESULTS: Estimates from the model-based and the direct survey methods were similar. However, direct survey estimates were unstable compared with the model-based estimates. Area-level model estimates were more stable than unit-level model estimates. The correlation between unit-level and direct survey estimates was (β1 = 0.66, r2 = 0.862), and correlation between area-level model and direct survey estimates was (β1 = 0.44, r2 = 0.698). The error associated with the estimates decreased by 37.5% and 33.1% for the unit-level and area-level models, respectively, compared to the direct survey estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Although the unit-level model estimates were less precise than the area-level model estimates, they were highly correlated with the direct survey estimates and had less standard error associated with estimates than the area-level model. Unit-level models provide more accurate and reliable data to support local decision-making when unit-level auxiliary information is available.

BACKGROUND: WHO revised their HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) monitoring strategy in 2014, enabling countries to generate nationally representative HIVDR prevalence estimates from surveys conducted using this methodology. In 2016, we adopted this strategy in Uganda and conducted an HIVDR survey among adults initiating or reinitiating ART. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of adults aged ≥18 years initiating or reinitiating ART was conducted at 23 sites using a two-stage cluster design sampling method. Participants provided written informed consent prior to enrolment. Whole blood collected in EDTA vacutainer tubes was used for preparation of dried blood spot (DBS) specimens or plasma. Samples were shipped from the sites to the Central Public Health Laboratory (CPHL) for temporary storage before transfer to the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) for genotyping. Prevalence of HIVDR among adults initiating or reinitiating ART was determined. RESULTS: Specimens from 491 participants (median age 32 years and 61.5% female) were collected between August and December 2016. Specimens from 351 participants were successfully genotyped. Forty-nine had drug resistance mutations, yielding an overall weighted HIVDR prevalence of 18.2% with the highest noted for NNRTIs at 14.1%. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a high HIVDR prevalence for NNRTIs among adults prior to initiating or reinitiating ART in Uganda. This is above WHO's recommended threshold of 10% when countries should consider changing from NNRTI- to dolutegravir-based first-line regimens. This recommendation was adopted in the revised Ugandan ART guidelines. Dolutegravir-containing ART regimens are preferred for first- and second-line ART regimens.

Large public-health training events may result in SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Universal SARS-CoV-2 testing during trainings for the Uganda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment identified 28/475 (5.9%) individuals with COVID-19 among attendees; most (89.3%) were asymptomatic. Effective COVID-19 mitigation measures, along with SARS-CoV-2 testing, are recommended for in-person trainings, particularly when trainees will have subsequent contact with survey participants.

BACKGROUND: With countries moving towards the World Health Organization's "Treat All" recommendation, there is need to initiate more HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART). In resource-limited settings, task shifting is one approach that can address clinician shortages. SETTING: Uganda METHODS:: We conducted a randomized controlled trial to test if nurse-initiated and monitored antiretroviral therapy (NIMART) is non-inferior to clinician-initiated and monitored ART (CIMART) in HIV-infected adults in Uganda. Study participants were HIV-infected, ART-naïve, and clinically stable adults. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of any of the following: all-cause mortality, virological failure, toxicity, and loss to follow up at 12 months post-ART initiation. RESULTS: Over half of the study cohort (1,760) was female (54.9%). The mean age was 35.1 years (standard deviation 9.51). Five hundred and thirty-three (31.6%) participants experienced the composite endpoint. At 12 months post-ART initiation, NIMART was non-inferior to CIMART. The intention-to-treat site-adjusted risk differences for the composite endpoint were -4.1 (97.5% CI = -9.8 to 0.2) with complete case analysis (CCA) and -3.4 (97.5% CI = -9.1 to 2.5) with multiple imputation analysis (MIA). Per-protocol site-adjusted risk differences were -3.6 (97.5% CI = -10.5 to 0.6) for CCA and -3.1 (-8.8 to 2.8) for MIA. This difference was within hypothesized margins (6%) for non-inferiority. CONCLUSIONS: Nurses were non-inferior to clinicians for initiation and monitoring of ART. Task shifting to trained nurses is a viable means to increase access to ART. Future studies should evaluate NIMART for other groups (e.g., children, adolescents, and unstable patients).

BACKGROUND: Key populations, including people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSW), are disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic. Understanding the magnitude of, and informing the public health response to, the HIV epidemic among these populations requires accurate size estimates. However, low social visibility poses challenges to these efforts. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to derive population size estimates of PWID, MSM, and FSW in Kampala using capture-recapture. METHODS: Between June and October 2017, unique objects were distributed to the PWID, MSM, and FSW populations in Kampala. PWID, MSM, and FSW were each sampled during 3 independent captures; unique objects were offered in captures 1 and 2. PWID, MSM, and FSW sampled during captures 2 and 3 were asked if they had received either or both of the distributed objects. All captures were completed 1 week apart. The numbers of PWID, MSM, and FSW receiving one or both objects were determined. Population size estimates were derived using the Lincoln-Petersen method for 2-source capture-recapture (PWID) and Bayesian nonparametric latent-class model for 3-source capture-recapture (MSM and FSW). RESULTS: We sampled 467 PWID in capture 1 and 450 in capture 2; a total of 54 PWID were captured in both. We sampled 542, 574, and 598 MSM in captures 1, 2, and 3, respectively. There were 70 recaptures between captures 1 and 2, 103 recaptures between captures 2 and 3, and 155 recaptures between captures 1 and 3. There were 57 MSM captured in all 3 captures. We sampled 962, 965, and 1417 FSW in captures 1, 2, and 3, respectively. There were 316 recaptures between captures 1 and 2, 214 recaptures between captures 2 and 3, and 235 recaptures between captures 1 and 3. There were 109 FSW captured in all 3 rounds. The estimated number of PWID was 3892 (3090-5126), the estimated number of MSM was 14,019 (95% credible interval (CI) 4995-40,949), and the estimated number of FSW was 8848 (95% CI 6337-17,470). CONCLUSIONS: Our population size estimates for PWID, MSM, and FSW in Kampala provide critical population denominator data to inform HIV prevention and treatment programs. The 3-source capture-recapture is a feasible method to advance key population size estimation.

BACKGROUND: Key populations at higher risk for HIV infection, including people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSWs), are disproportionately affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Empirical estimates of their population sizes are necessary for HIV program planning and monitoring. Such estimates, however, are lacking for most of Uganda's urban centers. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the number of FSWs and MSM in select locations in Uganda. METHODS: We utilized conventional 2-source capture-recapture (CRC) to estimate the population of FSWs in Mbale, Jinja, Wakiso, Mbarara, Gulu, Kabarole, Busia, Tororo, Masaka, and Kabale and the population of MSM in Mbale, Jinja, Wakiso, Mbarara, Gulu, Kabarole, and Mukono from June to August 2017. Hand mirrors and key chains were distributed to FSWs and MSM, respectively, by peers during capture 1. A week later, different FSWs and MSM distributors went to the same towns to collect data for the second capture. Population size estimates and 95% CIs were calculated using the CRC Simple Interactive Statistical Analysis. RESULTS: We estimated the population of FSWs and MSM using 2 different recapture definitions: those who could present the object or identify the object from a set of photos. The most credible (closer to global estimates of MSM; 3%-5%) estimates came from those who presented the objects only. The FSW population in Mbale was estimated to be 693 (95% CI 474-912). For Jinja, Mukono, Busia, and Tororo, we estimated the number of FSWs to be 802 (95% CI 534-1069), 322 (95% CI 300-343), 961 (95% CI 592-1330), and 2872 (95% CI 0-6005), respectively. For Masaka, Mbarara, Kabale, and Wakiso, we estimated the FSWs population to be 512 (95% CI 384-639), 1904 (95% CI 1058-2749), 377 (95% CI 247-506), and 828 (95% CI 502-1152), respectively. For Kabarole and Gulu, we estimated the FSWs population to be 397 (95% CI 325-469) and 1425 (95% CI 893-1958), respectively. MSM estimates were 381 (95% CI 299-462) for Mbale, 1100 (95% CI 351-1849) for Jinja, 368 (95% CI 281-455) for Wakiso, 322 (95% CI 253-390) for Mbarara, 180 (95% CI 170-189) for Gulu, 335 (95% CI 258-412) for Kabarole, and 264 (95% CI 228-301) for Mukono. CONCLUSIONS: The CRC activity was one of the first to be carried out in Uganda to obtain small town-level population sizes for FSWs and MSM. We found that it is feasible to use FSW and MSM peers for this activity, but proper training and standardized data collection tools are essential to minimize bias.

BACKGROUND: We investigated progress towards UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets among female sex workers in Kampala, Uganda, who bear a disproportionate burden of HIV. METHODS: Between April and December 2012, 1,487 female sex workers, defined as women, 15-49 years, residing in greater Kampala, and selling sex for money in the last 6 months, were recruited using respondent-driven sampling. Venous blood was collected for HIV and viral load testing [viral load suppression (VLS) defined as <1,000 copies/mL]. We collected data using audio computer-assisted self-interviews and calculated weighted population-level estimates. RESULTS: The median age was 27 years (interquartile range: 23 to 32). HIV seroprevalence was 31.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 29.0, 33.7%). Among all female sex workers who tested HIV-positive in the survey (population-level targets), 45.5% (95% CI: 40.1, 51.0) had knowledge of their serostatus (population-level target: 90%), 37.8% (95% CI: 32.2, 42.8) self-reported to be on ART (population-level target: 81%), and 35.2% (95% CI: 20.7, 30.4) were virally suppressed (population-level target: 73%). CONCLUSIONS: HIV prevalence among Kampala female sex workers is high, whereas serostatus knowledge and VLS are far below UNAIDS targets. Kampala female sex workers are in need of intensified and targeted HIV prevention and control efforts.

On 20 June 2015, a cholera outbreak affecting more than 30 people was reported in a fishing village, Katwe, in Kasese District, south-western Uganda. We investigated this outbreak to identify the mode of transmission and to recommend control measures. We defined a suspected case as onset of acute watery diarrhoea between 1 June and 15 July 2015 in a resident of Katwe village; a confirmed case was a suspected case with Vibrio cholerae cultured from stool. For case finding, we reviewed medical records and actively searched for cases in the community. In a case-control investigation we compared exposure histories of 32 suspected case-persons and 128 age-matched controls. We also conducted an environmental assessment on how the exposures had occurred. We found 61 suspected cases (attack rate = 4.9/1000) during this outbreak, of which eight were confirmed. The primary case-person had onset on 16 June; afterwards cases sharply increased, peaked on 19 June, and rapidly declined afterwards. After 22 June, eight scattered cases occurred. The case-control investigation showed that 97% (31/32) of cases and 62% (79/128) of controls usually collected water from inside a water-collection site "X" (ORM-H = 16; 95% CI = 2.4-107). The primary case-person who developed symptoms while fishing, reportedly came ashore in the early morning hours on 17 June, and defecated "near" water-collection site X. We concluded that this cholera outbreak was caused by drinking lake water collected from inside the lakeshore water-collection site X. At our recommendations, the village administration provided water chlorination tablets to the villagers, issued water boiling advisory to the villagers, rigorously disinfected all patients' faeces and, three weeks later, fixed the tap-water system.

In 2016, an estimated 1.5 million females aged 15-24 years were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Eastern and Southern Africa, where the prevalence of HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women (3.4%) is more than double that for males in the same age range (1.6%) (1). Progress was assessed toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 2020 targets for adolescent girls and young women in sub-Saharan Africa (90% of those with HIV infection aware of their status, 90% of HIV-infected persons aware of their status on antiretroviral treatment [ART], and 90% of those on treatment virally suppressed [HIV viral load <1,000 HIV RNA copies/mL]) (2) using data from recent Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys in seven countries. The national prevalence of HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years, the percentage who were aware of their status, and among those persons who were aware, the percentage who had achieved viral suppression were calculated. The target for viral suppression among all persons with HIV infection is 73% (the product of 90% x 90% x 90%). Among all seven countries, the prevalence of HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women was 3.6%; among those in this group, 46.3% reported being aware of their HIV-positive status, and 45.0% were virally suppressed. Sustained efforts by national HIV and public health programs to diagnose HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women as early as possible to ensure rapid initiation of ART should help achieve epidemic control among adolescent girls and young women.

BACKGROUND: With the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART), monitoring programme performance is needed to maximize ART efficacy and limit HIV drug resistance (HIVDR). METHODS: We implemented a WHO HIVDR prospective survey protocol at three treatment centers between 2012 and 2013. Data were abstracted from patient records at ART start (T1) and after 12 months (T2). Genotyping was performed in the HIV pol region at the two time points. RESULTS: Of the 425 patients enrolled, at T2, 20 (4.7%) had died, 66 (15.5%) were lost to follow-up, 313 (73.6%) were still on first-line, 8 (1.9%) had switched to second-line, 17 (4.0%) had transferred out and 1 (0.2%) had stopped treatment. At T2, 272 out of 321 on first and second line (84.7%) suppressed below 1000 copies/ml and the HIV DR prevention rate was 70.1%, just within the WHO threshold of ≥70%. The proportion of participants with potential HIVDR was 20.9%, which is higher than the 18.8% based on pooled analyses from African studies. Of the 35 patients with mutations at T2, 80% had M184V/I, 65.7% Y181C, and 48.6% (54.8% excluding those not on Tenofovir) had K65R mutations. 22.9% had Thymidine Analogue Mutations (TAMs). Factors significantly associated with HIVDR prevention at T2 were: baseline viral load (VL) <100,000 copies/ml [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 3.13, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36-7.19] and facility. Independent baseline predictors for HIVDR mutations at T2 were: CD4 count <250 cells/mul (AOR 2.80, 95% CI: 1.08-7.29) and viral load ≥100,000 copies/ml (AOR 2.48, 95% CI: 1.00-6.14). CONCLUSION: Strengthening defaulter tracing, intensified follow-up for patients with low CD4 counts and/or high VL at ART initiation together with early treatment initiation above 250 CD4 cells/ul and adequate patient counselling would improve ART efficacy and HIVDR prevention. The high rate of K65R and TAMs could compromise second line regimens including NRTIs.

BACKGROUND: Several approaches have been used for measuring HIV incidence in large areas, yet each presents specific challenges in incidence estimation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We present a comparison of incidence estimates for Kenya and Uganda using mulitple methods: 1) Epidemic Projections Package (EPP) and Spectrum models fitted to HIV prevalence from antenatal clinics (ANC) and national population-based surveys (NPS) in Kenya (2003, 2007) and Uganda (2004/2005); 2) a survey-derived model to infer age-specific incidence between two sequential NPS; 3) an assay-derived measurement in NPS using the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay, adjusted for misclassification using a locally derived false-recent rate (FRR) for the assay; (4) community cohorts in Uganda; (5) prevalence trends in young ANC attendees. EPP/Spectrum-derived and survey-derived modeled estimates were similar: 0.67 [uncertainty range: 0.60, 0.74] and 0.6 [confidence interval: (CI) 0.4, 0.9], respectively, for Uganda (2005) and 0.72 [uncertainty range: 0.70, 0.74] and 0.7 [CI 0.3, 1.1], respectively, for Kenya (2007). Using a local FRR, assay-derived incidence estimates were 0.3 [CI 0.0, 0.9] for Uganda (2004/2005) and 0.6 [CI 0, 1.3] for Kenya (2007). Incidence trends were similar for all methods for both Uganda and Kenya. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Triangulation of methods is recommended to determine best-supported estimates of incidence to guide programs. Assay-derived incidence estimates are sensitive to the level of the assay's FRR, and uncertainty around high FRRs can significantly impact the validity of the estimate. Systematic evaluations of new and existing incidence assays are needed to the study the level, distribution, and determinants of the FRR to guide whether incidence assays can produce reliable estimates of national HIV incidence.