Use of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Kenya has led to substantial reductions in vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease. However, analysis of recent surveillance data indicates an outbreak of vaccine-type serotype 1 in 2023 in Kibera, Kenya. Continued monitoring of invasive pneumococcal disease in Kenya is warranted.

The epidemiology and circulation patterns of various rhinovirus types within populations remains under-explored. We generated 803 VP4/VP2 gene sequences from rhinovirus-positive samples collected from acute respiratory illness (ARI) patients, including both in-patient and outpatient cases, between 1st January and 31st December 2014 from eleven surveillance sites across Kenya and used phylogenetics to characterise virus introductions and spread. RVs were detected throughout the year, with the highest detection rates observed from January to March and June to July. We detected a total of 114 of the 169 currently classified types. Our analysis revealed numerous virus introductions into Kenya characterized by local expansion and extinction, and extensive spatial mixing of types within the country due to the widespread transmission of the virus after an introduction. This work demonstrates that in a single year, the circulation of rhinovirus in Kenya was characterized by substantial genetic diversity, multiple introductions, and extensive geographical spread.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the second most common pathogen causing infant mortality. Additionally, RSV is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults (age ≥60 years) similar to influenza. A protein-based maternal vaccine and monoclonal antibody (mAb) are now market-approved to protect infants, while an mRNA and two protein-based vaccines are approved for older adults. First-year experience protecting infants with nirsevimab in high-income countries shows a major public health benefit. It is expected that the RSV vaccine landscape will continue to develop in the coming years to protect all people globally. The vaccine and mAb landscape remain active with 30 candidates in clinical development using four approaches: protein-based, live-attenuated and chimeric vector, mRNA, and mAbs. Candidates in late-phase trials aim to protect young infants using mAbs, older infants and toddlers with live-attenuated vaccines, and children and adults using protein-based and mRNA vaccines. This Review provides an overview of RSV vaccines highlighting different target populations, antigens, and trial results. As RSV vaccines have not yet reached low-income and middle-income countries, we outline urgent next steps to minimise the vaccine delay.

The World Health Organization's Immunization and Vaccines-related Implementation Research Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC) serves to independently review and evaluate vaccine-related research to maximize the potential impact of vaccination programs. From 28 June - 1 July 2024, IVIR-AC was convened for an ad hoc meeting to discuss new evidence on criteria for rubella vaccine introduction and the risk of congenital rubella syndrome. This report summarizes background information on rubella virus transmission and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome, meeting structure and presentations, proceedings, and recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the main causes of hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infection in children under five years of age globally. Maternal vaccines and monoclonal antibodies for RSV prevention among infants are approved for use in high income countries. However, data are limited on the economic burden of RSV disease from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) to inform decision making on prioritization and introduction of such interventions. This study aimed to estimate household and health system costs associated with childhood RSV in Kenya. METHODS: A structured questionnaire was administered to caregivers of children aged < 5 years admitted to referral hospitals in Kilifi (coastal Kenya) and Siaya (western Kenya) with symptoms of acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) during the 2019-2021 RSV seasons. These children had been enrolled in ongoing in-patient surveillance for respiratory viruses. Household expenditures on direct and indirect medical costs were collected 10 days prior to, during, and two weeks post hospitalization. Aggregated health system costs were acquired from the hospital administration and were included to calculate the cost per episode of hospitalized RSV illness. RESULTS: We enrolled a total of 241 and 184 participants from Kilifi and Siaya hospitals, respectively. Out of these, 79 (32.9%) in Kilifi and 21(11.4%) in Siaya, tested positive for RSV infection. The total (health system and household) mean costs per episode of severe RSV illness was USD 329 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 251-408 ) in Kilifi and USD 527 (95% CI: 405- 649) in Siaya. Household costs were USD 67 (95% CI: 54-80) and USD 172 (95% CI: 131- 214) in Kilifi and Siaya, respectively. Mean direct medical costs to the household during hospitalization were USD 11 (95% CI: 10-12) and USD 67 (95% CI: 51-83) among Kilifi and Siaya participants, respectively. Observed costs were lower in Kilifi due to differences in healthcare administration. CONCLUSIONS: RSV-associated disease among young children leads to a substantial economic burden to both families and the health system in Kenya. This burden may differ between Counties in Kenya and similar multi-site studies are advised to support cost-effectiveness analyses.

BACKGROUND: Kenya introduced Synflorix™ (GlaxoSmithKline, PCV10-GSK), a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, in 2011, using three primary doses and, in select areas, catch-up campaigns. Surveys conducted 1-2 years post-introduction showed a stable prevalence of pneumococcal colonization, with declines in vaccine-type carriage. However, little is known about the long-term impact of PCV10-GSK in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of pneumococcal carriage among children aged <5 years in November-December 2017 in Kibera (Nairobi informal settlement, no catch-up) and Asembo (rural western Kenya, 2-dose catch-up for children 1-4 years), using the same methods and settings as prior annual surveys from 2009 to 2013. Participants were randomly selected from an ongoing population-based surveillance platform. Nasopharyngeal swabs were frozen in skim milk-tryptone-glucose-glycerin media within 4 h and underwent culture with broth enrichment for pneumococcus. Isolates were serotyped by polymerase chain reaction and Quellung. RESULTS: We enrolled 504 children, including 252 from each site; >90 % of participants had received 3 doses of PCV10-GSK. Pneumococcal colonization was detected in 210 (83.3 %) participants in Kibera and 149 (59.1 %) in Asembo, which was significantly lower than the prevalence observed in 2013 (92.9 % and 85.7 %, respectively). PCV10-GSK serotypes were detected in 35/252 (13.9 %) participants in Kibera and 23/252 (9.1 %) in Asembo, respectively; these prevalences were lower, but not statistically different, from vaccine-type carriage prevalences in 2013 (17.3 % and 13.3 %, respectively). In 2017 in both sites, serotypes 3, 6A, 19A, 19F, and 35B were among the most common serotypes. CONCLUSION: Six years post-PCV10-GSK introduction, the prevalence of pneumococcal carriage among children has decreased, and the impact of PCV10-GSK on vaccine-type carriage has plateaued. Kenya recently changed from PCV10-GSK to Pneumosil™ (Serum Institute of India), a 10-valent PCV that includes serotypes 6A and 19A; these data provide historical context for interpreting changes in vaccine-type carriage following the PCV formulation switch.

Background: Acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally. With (re) emergence of novel viruses and increased access to childhood bacterial vaccines, viruses have assumed greater importance in the aetiology of ARI. There are now promising candidate vaccines against some of the most common endemic respiratory viruses. Optimal delivery strategies for these vaccines, and the need for interventions against other respiratory viruses, requires geographically diverse data capturing temporal variations in virus circulation.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread changes and disruptions to healthcare seeking behavior. There are limited studies on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare seeking patterns in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), especially in settings with inequitable access to healthcare in rural and urban informal settlements. We investigated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported healthcare seeking at health facilities and chemists using morbidity data from participants in an ongoing population-based infectious disease surveillance platform in Asembo in Siaya County, a rural setting in western Kenya and Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi County. We described healthcare seeking patterns before (from 1st January 2016 to 12th March 2020) and during the pandemic (from 13th March 2020 to 31st August 2022) by gender and age for any reported illness and select clinical syndromes using frequencies and percentages. We used a generalized estimating equation with an exchangeable correlation structure to assess the effect of the pandemic on healthcare seeking adjusting for gender and age. Overall, there was a 19% (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 0.81; 95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.79-0.83) decline in odds of seeking healthcare at health facilities for any illness in Asembo during the pandemic, and a 30% (aOR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67-0.73) decline in Kibera. Similarly, there was a decline in seeking healthcare by clinical syndromes, e.g., for ARI, aOR: 0.76; 95% CI:0.73-0.79 in Asembo, and aOR: 0.68; 95% CI:0.64-0.72 in Kibera. The pandemic resulted in increased healthcare seeking at chemists (aOR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.20-1.27 in Asembo, and aOR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.35-1.46 in Kibera). This study highlights interruptions to healthcare seeking in resource-limited settings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic resulted in a substantial decline in seeking care at health facilities, and an increase of the same at chemists.

BACKGROUND: We sought to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population during the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of COVID-19 vaccine use. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys among randomly selected, age-stratified samples of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) residents in Kilifi and Nairobi. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus was measured using a validated in-house ELISA and antibody concentrations estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin. RESULTS: HDSS residents were sampled in February-June 2022 (Kilifi HDSS N = 852; Nairobi Urban HDSS N = 851) and in August-December 2022 (N = 850 for both sites). Population-weighted coverage for ≥1 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were 11.1% (9.1-13.2%) among Kilifi HDSS residents by November 2022 and 34.2% (30.7-37.6%) among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents by December 2022. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence among Kilifi HDSS residents increased from 69.1% (65.8-72.3%) by May 2022 to 77.4% (74.4-80.2%) by November 2022. Within the Nairobi Urban HDSS, seroprevalence by June 2022 was 88.5% (86.1-90.6%), comparable with seroprevalence by December 2022 (92.2%; 90.2-93.9%). For both surveys, seroprevalence was significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents, as were antibody concentrations (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: More than 70% of Kilifi residents and 90% of Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by the end of 2022. There is a potential immunity gap in rural Kenya; implementation of interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake among sub-groups at increased risk of severe COVID-19 in rural settings is recommended.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 has extensively spread in cities and rural communities, and studies are needed to quantify exposure in the population. We report seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in two well-characterized populations in Kenya at two time points. These data inform the design and delivery of public health mitigation measures. METHODS: Leveraging on existing population based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) in two demographically diverse settings, a rural site in western Kenya in Asembo, Siaya County, and an urban informal settlement in Kibera, Nairobi County, we set up a longitudinal cohort of randomly selected households with serial sampling of all consenting household members in March and June/July 2021. Both sites included 1,794 and 1,638 participants in the March and June/July 2021, respectively. Individual seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was expressed as a percentage of the seropositive among the individuals tested, accounting for household clustering and weighted by the PBIDS age and sex distribution. RESULTS: Overall weighted individual seroprevalence increased from 56.2% (95%CI: 52.1, 60.2%) in March 2021 to 63.9% (95%CI: 59.5, 68.0%) in June 2021 in Kibera. For Asembo, the seroprevalence almost doubled from 26.0% (95%CI: 22.4, 30.0%) in March 2021 to 48.7% (95%CI: 44.3, 53.2%) in July 2021. Seroprevalence was highly heterogeneous by age and geography in these populations-higher seroprevalence was observed in the urban informal settlement (compared to the rural setting), and children aged <10 years had the lowest seroprevalence in both sites. Only 1.2% and 1.6% of the study participants reported receipt of at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the second round of serosurvey-none by the first round. CONCLUSIONS: In these two populations, SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased in the first 16 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. It is important to prioritize additional mitigation measures, such as vaccine distribution, in crowded and low socioeconomic settings.

Robust data on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Africa are relatively scarce. Using data from two well-characterized populations in Kenya we aimed to estimate excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The mortality data arise from an ongoing population-based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) platform, which has been operational since 2006 in rural western Kenya (Asembo, Siaya County) and an urban informal settlement (Kibera, Nairobi County), Kenya. PBIDS participants were regularly visited at home (2-3 times a year) by field workers who collected demographic data, including deaths. In addition, verbal autopsy (VA) interviews for all identified deaths are conducted. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates before and during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we compared associated mortality rates between the periods using incidence rate ratios. Excess deaths during the COVID-19 period were also estimated by modelling expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19 by applying a negative binomial regression model on historical mortality data from January 2016. Overall and monthly excess deaths were determined using the P-score metric. Spearman correlation was used to assess whether there is a relationship between the generated P-score and COVID-19 positivity rate. The all-cause mortality rate was higher during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period in Asembo [9.1 (95% CI, 8.2-10.0) vs. 7.8 (95% CI, 7.3-8.3) per 1000 person-years of observation, pyo]. In Kibera, the all-cause mortality rate was slightly lower during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period [2.6 (95% CI, 2.2-3.2 per 1000 pyo) vs. 3.1; 95% CI, 2.7-3.4 per 1000 pyo)]. An increase in all-cause mortality was observed (incidence rate ratio, IRR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04-1.31) in Asembo, unlike in Kibera (IRR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.71-1.09). The notable increase in mortality rate in Asembo was observed among persons aged 50 to 64 years (IRR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.95-3.52), persons aged 65 years and above (5.47; 95% CI, 4.60-6.50) and among females (IRR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.07-1.46). These age and gender differences were not observed in Kibera. We observed an increase in the mortality rate due to acute respiratory infection, including pneumonia (IRR, 1.45;95% CI, 1.03-2.04), and a reduction in the mortality rate due to pulmonary tuberculosis (IRR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.05-0.87) among older children and adults in Asembo. There was no statistically significant change in mortality rates due to leading specific causes of death in Kibera. Overall, during the COVID-19 period observed deaths were higher than expected deaths in Asembo (P-score = 6.0%) and lower than expected in Kibera (P-score = -22.3%).Using well-characterized populations in the two diverse geographic locations, we demonstrate a heterogenous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in Kenya. We observed more deaths than expected during the COVID-19 period in our rural site in western Kenya contrary to the urban site in Nairobi, the capital city in Kenya.

Background Up-to-date SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence estimates are important for informing public health planning, including priorities for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination programs. We sought to estimate infection- and vaccination-induced SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population approximately two years into the COVID-19 pandemic and approximately one year after rollout of the national COVID-19 vaccination program. Methods We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys within random, age-stratified samples of Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) and Nairobi Urban HDSS residents. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) and anti-nucleoprotein (anti-N) IgG were measured using validated in-house ELISAs. Target-specific Bayesian population-weighted seroprevalence was calculated overall, by sex and by age, with adjustment for test performance as appropriate. Anti-S IgG concentrations were estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard (IS) for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin and their reverse cumulative distributions plotted. Results Between February and June 2022, 852 and 851 individuals within the Kilifi HDSS and the Nairobi Urban HDSS, respectively, were sampled. Only 11.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.0-13.3) of all Kilifi HDSS participants and 33.4% (95%CI 30.2-36.6) of all Nairobi Urban HDSS participants had received any doses of COVID-19 vaccine. Population-weighted antiS IgG seroprevalence was 69.1% (95% credible interval [CrI] 65.8-72.3) within the Kilifi HDSS and 88.5% (95%CrI 86.1-90.6) within the Nairobi Urban HDSS. Among COVID-unvaccinated residents of the Kilifi HDSS and Nairobi Urban HDSS, it was 66.7% (95%CrI 63.3-70.0) and 85.3% (95%CrI 82.1-88.2), respectively. Population-weighted, test-adjusted anti-N IgG seroprevalence within the Kilifi HDSS was 53.5% (95%CrI 46.5-61.1) and 65.5% (95%CrI 56.0-75.6) within the Nairobi Urban HDSS. The prevalence of anti-N antibodies was similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated subgroups in both HDSS populations. Anti-S IgG concentrations were significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents (p< 0.001). Conclusions Approximately, 7 in 10 Kilifi residents and 9 in 10 Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by May 2022 and June 2022, respectively. Given COVID-19 vaccination coverage, anti-S IgG seropositivity among COVID-unvaccinated individuals, and anti-N IgG seroprevalence, population-level anti-S IgG seroprevalence was predominantly derived from infection. Interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake should be targeted to individuals in rural Kenya who are at high risk of severe COVID-19. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children worldwide, yet no licensed RSV vaccine exists to help prevent the millions of illnesses and hospitalizations and tens of thousands of young lives taken each year. Monoclonal antibody (mAb) prophylaxis exists for prevention of RSV in a small subset of very high-risk infants and young children, but the only currently licensed product is impractical, requiring multiple doses and expensive for the low-income settings where the RSV disease burden is greatest. A robust candidate pipeline exists to one day prevent RSV disease in infant and pediatric populations, and it focuses on two promising passive immunization approaches appropriate for low-income contexts: maternal RSV vaccines and long-acting infant mAbs. Licensure of one or more candidates is feasible over the next one to three years and, depending on final product characteristics, current economic models suggest both approaches are likely to be cost-effective. Strong coordination between maternal and child health programs and the Expanded Program on Immunization will be needed for effective, efficient, and equitable delivery of either intervention. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for RSV is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the WHO headquarters. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the RSV VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among infants under 6 months of age. Yet, in Kenya, little is known about healthcare workers' (HCWs) knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions around RSV disease and the prevention products under development. Between September and October 2021, we conducted a mixed methods cross-sectional survey to assess HCWs' knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of RSV disease and RSV vaccinations in two counties. We enrolled HCWs delivering services directly at maternal and child health (MCH) departments in selected health facilities (frontline HCWs) and health management officers (HMOs). Of the 106 respondents, 94 (88.7%) were frontline HCWs, while 12 were HMOs. Two of the HMOs were members of the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (KENITAG). Of the 104 non-KENITAG HCWs, only 41 (39.4%) had heard about RSV disease, and 38/41 (92.7%) felt that pregnant women should be vaccinated against RSV. Most participants would recommend a single-dose vaccine schedule (n = 62, 58.5%) for maximal adherence and compliance (n = 38/62, 61.3%), single dose/device vaccines (n = 50/86, 58.1%) to prevent wastage and contamination, and maternal vaccination through antenatal care clinics (n = 53, 50%). We found the need for increased knowledge about RSV disease and prevention among Kenyan HCWs.

Typhoid fever burden can vary over time. Long-term data can inform prevention strategies; however, such data are lacking in many African settings. We reexamined typhoid fever incidence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) over a 10-year period in Kibera, a densely populated urban informal settlement where a high burden has been previously described. We used data from the Population Based Infectious Diseases Surveillance platform to estimate crude and adjusted incidence rates and prevalence of AMR in nearly 26,000 individuals of all ages. Demographic and healthcare-seeking information was collected through household visits. Blood cultures were processed for patients with acute fever or lower respiratory infection. Between 2010 and 2019, 16,437 participants were eligible for blood culture and 11,848 (72.1%) had a culture performed. Among 11,417 noncontaminated cultures (96.4%), 237 grew Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (2.1%). Overall crude and adjusted incidences were 95 and 188 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation (pyo), respectively. Annual crude incidence varied from 144 to 233 between 2010 and 2012 and from 9 to 55 between 2013 and 2018 and reached 130 per 100,000 pyo in 2019. Children 5-9 years old had the highest overall incidence (crude, 208; adjusted, 359 per 100,000 pyo). Among isolates tested, 156 of 217 were multidrug resistant (resistant to chloramphenicol, ampicillin, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole [71.9%]) and 6 of 223 were resistant to ciprofloxacin (2.7%). Typhoid fever incidence resurged in 2019 after a prolonged period of low rates, with the highest incidence among children. Typhoid fever control measures, including vaccines, could reduce morbidity in this setting.

Introduction: Urban informal settlements may be disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic due to overcrowding and other socioeconomic challenges that make adoption and implementation of public health mitigation measures difficult. We conducted a seroprevalence survey in the Kibera informal settlement, Nairobi, Kenya, to determine the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: Members of randomly selected households from an existing population-based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) provided blood specimens between 27 (th) November and 5 (th) December 2020. The specimens were tested for antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Seroprevalence estimates were weighted by age and sex distribution of the PBIDS population and accounted for household clustering. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for individual seropositivity.   Results: Consent was obtained from 523 individuals in 175 households, yielding 511 serum specimens that were tested. The overall weighted seroprevalence was 43.3% (95% CI, 37.4 - 49.5%) and did not vary by sex. Of the sampled households, 122(69.7%) had at least one seropositive individual. The individual seroprevalence increased by age from 7.6% (95% CI, 2.4 - 21.3%) among children (<5 years), 32.7% (95% CI, 22.9 - 44.4%) among children 5 - 9 years, 41.8% (95% CI, 33.0 - 51.1%) for those 10-19 years, and 54.9%(46.2 - 63.3%) for adults (≥20 years). Relative to those from medium-sized households (3 and 4 individuals), participants from large (≥5 persons) households had significantly increased odds of being seropositive, aOR, 1.98(95% CI, 1.17 - 1.58), while those from small-sized households (≤2 individuals) had increased odds but not statistically significant, aOR, 2.31 (95% CI, 0.93 - 5.74).  Conclusion: In densely populated urban settings, close to half of the individuals had an infection to SARS-CoV-2 after eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. This highlights the importance to prioritize mitigation measures, including COVID-19 vaccine distribution, in the crowded, low socioeconomic settings.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is among the leading childhood causes of viral pneumonia worldwide. Establishing RSV-associated morbidity and mortality is important in informing the development, delivery strategies, and evaluation of interventions. METHODS: Using data collected during 2010-2018 from base regions (population-based surveillance studies in western Kenya and the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance Study), we estimated age-specific rates of acute respiratory illness (ARI), severe acute respiratory illness (SARI-defined as hospitalization with cough or difficulty breathing with onset within the past 10 days), and SARI-associated deaths. We extrapolated the rates from the base regions to other regions of Kenya, while adjusting for risk factors of ARI and healthcare seeking behavior, and finally applied the proportions of RSV-positive cases identified from various sentinel and study facilities to the rates to obtain regional age-specific rates of RSV-associated outpatient and non-medically attended ARI and hospitalized SARI and severe ARI that was not hospitalized (non-hospitalized SARI). We applied age-specific RSV case fatality ratios to SARI to obtain estimates of RSV-associated in- and out-of-hospital deaths. RESULTS: Among Kenyan children aged < 5 years, the estimated annual incidence of outpatient and non-medically attended RSV-associated ARI was 206 (95% credible interval, CI; 186-229) and 226 (95% CI; 204-252) per 1000 children, respectively. The estimated annual rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized RSV-associated SARI were 349 (95% CI; 303-404) and 1077 (95% CI; 934-1247) per 100,000 children respectively. The estimated annual number of in- and out-of-hospital deaths associated with RSV infection in Kenya were 539 (95% CI; 420-779) and 1921 (95% CI; 1495-2774), respectively. Children aged < 6 months had the highest burden of RSV-associated severe disease: 2075 (95% CI; 1818-2394) and 44 (95% CI 25-71) cases per 100,000 children for hospitalized SARI and in-hospital deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a substantial disease burden due to RSV infection, particularly among younger children. Prioritizing development and use of maternal vaccines and affordable long-lasting monoclonal antibodies could help reduce this burden.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden of acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5 years, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Maternal vaccine (MV) and next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates have been shown to reduce RSV disease in infants in phase 3 clinical trials. The cost-effectiveness of these biologics has been estimated using disease burden data from global meta-analyses, but these are sensitive to the detailed age breakdown of paediatric RSV disease, for which there have previously been limited data. METHODS: We use original hospital-based incidence data from South Africa (ZAF) and Kenya (KEN) collected between 2010 and 2018 of RSV-associated acute respiratory infection (ARI), influenza-like illness (ILI), and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) as well as deaths with monthly age-stratification, supplemented with data on healthcare-seeking behaviour and costs to the healthcare system and households. We estimated the incremental cost per DALY averted (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or ICER) of public health interventions by MV or mAb for a plausible range of prices (5-50 USD for MV, 10-125 USD for mAb), using an adjusted version of a previously published health economic model of RSV immunisation. RESULTS: Our data show higher disease incidence for infants younger than 6 months of age in the case of Kenya and South Africa than suggested by earlier projections from community incidence-based meta-analyses of LMIC data. Since MV and mAb provide protection for these youngest age groups, this leads to a substantially larger reduction of disease burden and, therefore, more favourable cost-effectiveness of both interventions in both countries. Using the latest efficacy data and inferred coverage levels based on antenatal care (ANC-3) coverage (KEN: 61.7%, ZAF: 75.2%), our median estimate of the reduction in RSV-associated deaths in children under 5 years in Kenya is 10.5% (95% CI: 7.9, 13.3) for MV and 13.5% (10.7, 16.4) for mAb, while in South Africa, it is 27.4% (21.6, 32.3) and 37.9% (32.3, 43.0), respectively. Starting from a dose price of 5 USD, in Kenya, net cost (for the healthcare system) per (undiscounted) DALY averted for MV is 179 (126, 267) USD, rising to 1512 (1166, 2070) USD at 30 USD per dose; for mAb, it is 684 (543, 895) USD at 20 USD per dose and 1496 (1203, 1934) USD at 40 USD per dose. In South Africa, a MV at 5 USD per dose would be net cost-saving for the healthcare system and net cost per DALY averted is still below the ZAF's GDP per capita at 40 USD dose price (median: 2350, 95% CI: 1720, 3346). For mAb in ZAF, net cost per DALY averted is 247 (46, 510) USD at 20 USD per dose, rising to 2028 (1565, 2638) USD at 50 USD per dose and to 6481 (5364, 7959) USD at 125 USD per dose. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporation of new data indicating the disease burden is highly concentrated in the first 6 months of life in two African settings suggests that interventions against RSV disease may be more cost-effective than previously estimated.

Existing acute febrile illness (AFI) surveillance systems can be leveraged to identify and characterize emerging pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated with ministries of health and implementing partners in Belize, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, and Peru to adapt AFI surveillance systems to generate COVID-19 response information. Staff at sentinel sites collected epidemiologic data from persons meeting AFI criteria and specimens for SARS-CoV-2 testing. A total of 5,501 patients with AFI were enrolled during March 2020-October 2021; >69% underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing. Percentage positivity for SARS-CoV-2 ranged from 4% (87/2,151, Kenya) to 19% (22/115, Ethiopia). We show SARS-CoV-2 testing was successfully integrated into AFI surveillance in 5 low- to middle-income countries to detect COVID-19 within AFI care-seeking populations. AFI surveillance systems can be used to build capacity to detect and respond to both emerging and endemic infectious disease threats.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and timely diagnosis is essential in limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The reference standard, rRT-PCR, requires specialized laboratories, costly reagents, and a long turnaround time. Antigen RDTs provide a feasible alternative to rRT-PCR since they are quick, relatively inexpensive, and do not require a laboratory. The WHO requires that Ag RDTs have a sensitivity ≥80% and specificity ≥97%. METHODS: This evaluation was conducted at 11 health facilities in Kenya between March and July 2021. We enrolled persons of any age with respiratory symptoms and asymptomatic contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases. We collected demographic and clinical information and two nasopharyngeal specimens from each participant for Ag RDT testing and rRT-PCR. We calculated the diagnostic performance of the Panbio™ Ag RDT against the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) rRT-PCR test. RESULTS: We evaluated the Ag RDT in 2,245 individuals where 551 (24.5%, 95% CI: 22.8-26.3%) tested positive by rRT-PCR. Overall sensitivity of the Ag RDT was 46.6% (95% CI: 42.4-50.9%), specificity 98.5% (95% CI: 97.8-99.0%), PPV 90.8% (95% CI: 86.8-93.9%) and NPV 85.0% (95% CI: 83.4-86.6%). Among symptomatic individuals, sensitivity was 60.6% (95% CI: 54.3-66.7%) and specificity was 98.1% (95% CI: 96.7-99.0%). Among asymptomatic individuals, sensitivity was 34.7% (95% CI 29.3-40.4%) and specificity was 98.7% (95% CI: 97.8-99.3%). In persons with onset of symptoms <5 days (594/876, 67.8%), sensitivity was 67.1% (95% CI: 59.2-74.3%), and 53.3% (95% CI: 40.0-66.3%) among those with onset of symptoms >7 days (157/876, 17.9%). The highest sensitivity was 87.0% (95% CI: 80.9-91.8%) in symptomatic individuals with cycle threshold (Ct) values ≤30. CONCLUSION: The overall sensitivity and NPV of the Panbio™ Ag RDT were much lower than expected. The specificity of the Ag RDT was high and satisfactory; therefore, a positive result may not require confirmation by rRT-PCR. The kit may be useful as a rapid screening tool only for symptomatic patients in high-risk settings with limited access to rRT-PCR. A negative result should be interpreted based on clinical and epidemiological information and may require retesting by rRT-PCR.

A high burden of Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) bacteremia has been reported from urban informal settlements in sub-Saharan Africa, yet little is known about the introduction of these strains to the region. Understanding regional differences in the predominant strains of S. Typhi can provide insight into the genomic epidemiology. We genetically characterized 310 S. Typhi isolates from typhoid fever surveillance conducted over a 12-year period (2007-2019) in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya, to assess the circulating strains, their antimicrobial resistance attributes, and how they relate to global S. Typhi isolates. Whole genome multi-locus sequence typing (wgMLST) identified 4 clades, with up to 303 pairwise allelic differences. The identified genotypes correlated with wgMLST clades. The predominant clade contained 290 (93.5%) isolates with a median of 14 allele differences (range 0-52) and consisted entirely of genotypes 4.3.1.1 and 4.3.1.2. Resistance determinants were identified exclusively in the predominant clade. Determinants associated with resistance to aminoglycosides were observed in 245 isolates (79.0%), sulphonamide in 243 isolates (78.4%), trimethoprim in 247 isolates (79.7%), tetracycline in 224 isolates (72.3%), chloramphenicol in 247 isolates (79.6%), β-lactams in 239 isolates (77.1%) and quinolones in 62 isolates (20.0%). Multidrug resistance (MDR) determinants (defined as determinants conferring resistance to ampicillin, chloramphenicol and cotrimoxazole) were found in 235 (75.8%) isolates. The prevalence of MDR associated genes was similar throughout the study period (2007-2012: 203, 76.3% vs 2013-2019: 32, 72.7%; Fisher's Exact Test: P = 0.5478, while the proportion of isolates harboring quinolone resistance determinants increased (2007-2012: 42, 15.8% and 2013-2019: 20, 45.5%; Fisher's Exact Test: P<0.0001) following a decline in S. Typhi in Kibera. Some isolates (49, 15.8%) harbored both MDR and quinolone resistance determinants. There were no determinants associated with resistance to cephalosporins or azithromycin detected among the isolates sequenced in this study. Plasmid markers were only identified in the main clade including IncHI1A and IncHI1B(R27) in 226 (72.9%) isolates, and IncQ1 in 238 (76.8%) isolates. Molecular clock analysis of global typhoid isolates and isolates from Kibera suggests that genotype 4.3.1 has been introduced multiple times in Kibera. Several genomes from Kibera formed a clade with genomes from Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Tanzania. The most recent common ancestor (MRCA) for these isolates was from around 1997. Another isolate from Kibera grouped with several isolates from Uganda, sharing a common ancestor from around 2009. In summary, S. Typhi in Kibera belong to four wgMLST clades one of which is frequently associated with MDR genes and this poses a challenge in treatment and control.

Background: Maternal immunisation to boost respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antibodies in pregnant women, is a strategy being considered to enhance infant protection from severe RSV associated disease. However, little is known about the efficiency of transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies in a setting with a high burden of malaria and HIV, to guide the implementation of such a vaccination program. Methods: Using a plaque reduction neutralization assay, we screened 400 pairs of cord and maternal serum specimens from pregnant women for RSV-specific antibodies. Participants were pregnant women of two surveillance cohorts: 200 participants from a hospital cohort in Kilifi, Coastal Kenya and 200 participants from a surveillance cohort in Siaya, Western Kenya. Transplacental transfer efficiency was determined by the cord to maternal titre ratio (CMTR). Logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors of impaired transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies. Results: A total of 800 samples were screened from the 400 participants. At enrollment the median age was 25 years (Interquartile range (IQR): 21-31). Overall, transplacental transfer was efficient and did not differ between Kilifi and Siaya cohort (1.02 vs. 1.02; p=0.946) but was significantly reduced among HIV-infected mothers compared to HIV-uninfected mothers (mean CMTR: 0.98 vs 1.03; p=0.015). Prematurity <33 weeks gestation (Odds ratio [OR]: 0.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06-0.85; p=0.028), low birth weight <2.5 kgs (OR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.07-0.94; p=0.041) and HIV infection (OR: 0.47, 95% CI:0.23-0.98; p=0.045) reduced efficiency of transplacental transfer among these women. Conclusions: Transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies among pregnant women in Kenya is efficient. A consideration to integrate other preventive interventions with maternal RSV vaccination targeting infants born premature (<33 weeks gestation), with low birth weight <2.5 kgs, or HIV-infected mothers is likely to improve vaccine outcomes in this setting.

BACKGROUND: The lower-than-expected COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Africa has been attributed to multiple factors, including weak surveillance. We estimated the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections eight months into the epidemic in Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cross-sectional survey using multi-stage random sampling to select households within Nairobi in November 2020. Sera from consenting household members were tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence was estimated after adjusting for population structure and test performance. Infection fatality ratios (IFRs) were calculated by comparing study estimates to reported cases and deaths. RESULTS: Among 1,164 individuals, the adjusted seroprevalence was 34.7% (95%CI 31.8-37.6). Half the enrolled households had at least one positive participant. Seropositivity increased in more densely populated areas (spearman's r=0.63; p=0.009). Individuals aged 20-59 years had at least 2-fold higher seropositivity than those aged 0-9 years. The IFR was 40 per 100,000 infections, with individuals ≥60 years old having higher IFRs. CONCLUSION: Over one-third of Nairobi residents had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 by November 2020, indicating extensive transmission. However, the IFR was >10-fold lower than that reported in Europe and the United States, supporting the perceived lower morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

Understanding respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation patterns is necessary to guide the timing of limited-duration interventions such as vaccines. We describe RSV circulation over multiple seasons in three distinct counties of Kenya during 2006-2018. Kilifi and Siaya counties each had consistent but distinct RSV seasonality, lasting on average 18-22 weeks. Based on data from available years, RSV did not have a clear pattern of circulation in Nairobi. This information can help guide the timing of vaccines and immunoprophylaxis products that are under development.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018. METHODS: We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. FINDINGS: In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109.5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63.1-190.6), 10.1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6.8-15.1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION: A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and hospitalization in infants and children globally. Many observational studies have found an association between RSV LRTI in early life and subsequent respiratory morbidity, including recurrent wheeze of early childhood (RWEC) and asthma. Conversely, two randomized placebo-controlled trials of efficacious anti-RSV monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) in heterogenous infant populations found no difference in physician-diagnosed RWEC or asthma by treatment group. If a causal association exists and RSV vaccines and mAbs can prevent a substantial fraction of RWEC/asthma, the full public health value of these interventions would markedly increase. The primary alternative interpretation of the observational data is that RSV LRTI in early life is a marker of an underlying predisposition for the development of RWEC and asthma. If this is the case, RSV vaccines and mAbs would not necessarily be expected to impact these outcomes. To evaluate whether the available evidence supports a causal association between RSV LRTI and RWEC/asthma and to provide guidance for future studies, the World Health Organization convened a meeting of subject matter experts on February 12-13, 2019 in Geneva, Switzerland. After discussing relevant background information and reviewing the current epidemiologic evidence, the group determined that: (i) the evidence is inconclusive in establishing a causal association between RSV LRTI and RWEC/asthma, (ii) the evidence does not establish that RSV mAbs (and, by extension, future vaccines) will have a substantial effect on these outcomes and (iii) regardless of the association with long-term childhood respiratory morbidity, severe acute RSV disease in young children poses a substantial public health burden and should continue to be the primary consideration for policy-setting bodies deliberating on RSV vaccine and mAb recommendations. Nonetheless, the group recognized the public health importance of resolving this question and suggested good practice guidelines for future studies.

Background: Severe disease associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection occurs predominantly among infants under 6 months of age. Vaccines for prevention are in clinical development. Assessment of the vaccine effectiveness in large epidemiological studies requires serological assays which are rapid, economical and standardised between laboratories. The objective of this study was to assess the agreement between two enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) and the plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT) in quantifying RSV specific antibodies. Methods: Archived sera from 99 participants of the Kilifi Birth Cohort (KBC) study (conducted 2002-2007) were screened for RSV antibodies using 3 methods: ELISA using crude RSV lysate as antigen, a commercial RSV immunoglobulin G (IgG) ELISA kit from IBL International GmbH, and PRNT. Pearson correlation, Bland-Altman plots and regression methods were used in analysis. Results: There was high positive correlation between the IBL RSV IgG ELISA and PRNT antibodies (Pearson r=0.75), and moderate positive correlation between the crude RSV lysate IgG ELISA and PRNT antibodies (r= 0.61). Crude RSV lysate IgG ELISA showed a wider 95% limit of agreement (-1.866, 6.157) with PRNT compared to the IBL RSV IgG ELISA (1.392, 7.595). Mean PRNT titres were estimated within a width of 4.8 log 2PRNT and 5.6 log 2PRNT at 95% prediction interval by IBL RSV IgG and crude RSV lysate IgG ELISA, respectively. Conclusion: Although, the IBL RSV IgG ELISA is observed to provide a reasonable correlate for PRNT assay in detecting RSV specific antibodies, it does not provide an accurate prediction for neutralizing antibody levels. An RSV neutralising antibody level is likely to fall within 2.4 fold higher and 2.4 fold lower than the true value if IBL RSV IgG ELISA is used to replace PRNT assay. The utility of an ELISA assay in vaccine studies should be assessed independent of the PRNT method.

We report on infection patterns in 5 households (78 participants) delineating the natural history of human rhinovirus (HRV). Nasopharyngeal collections were obtained every 3-4 days irrespective of symptoms, over a 6-month period, with molecular screening for HRV and typing by sequencing VP4/VP2 junction. Overall, 311/3468 (8.9%) collections were HRV positive: 256 were classified into 3 species: 104 (40.6%) HRV-A; 14 (5.5%) HRV-B, and 138 (53.9%) HRV-C. Twenty-six known HRV types (13 HRV-A, 3 HRV-B, and 10 HRV-C) were identified (A75, C1, and C35 being most frequent). We observed continuous invasion and temporal clustering of HRV types in households (range 5-13 over 6 months). Intrahousehold transmission was independent of clinical status but influenced by age. Most (89.0%) of HRV infection episodes were limited to <14 days. Individual repeat infections were frequent (range 1-7 over 6 months), decreasing with age, and almost invariably heterotypic, indicative of lasting type-specific immunity and low cross-type protection.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is an important cause of pneumonia mortality in young children. However, clinical data for fatal RSV infection are scarce. We aimed to identify clinical and socioeconomic characteristics of children aged younger than 5 years with RSV-related mortality using individual patient data. METHODS: In this retrospective case series, we developed an online questionnaire to obtain individual patient data for clinical and socioeconomic characteristics of children aged younger than 5 years who died with community-acquired RSV infection between Jan 1, 1995, and Oct 31, 2015, through leading research groups for child pneumonia identified through a comprehensive literature search and existing research networks. For the literature search, we searched PubMed for articles published up to Feb 3, 2015, using the key terms "RSV", "respiratory syncytial virus", or "respiratory syncytial viral" combined with "mortality", "fatality", "death", "died", "deaths", or "CFR" for articles published in English. We invited researchers and clinicians identified to participate between Nov 1, 2014, and Oct 31, 2015. We calculated descriptive statistics for all variables. FINDINGS: We studied 358 children with RSV-related in-hospital death from 23 countries across the world, with data contributed from 31 research groups. 117 (33%) children were from low-income or lower middle-income countries, 77 (22%) were from upper middle-income countries, and 164 (46%) were from high-income countries. 190 (53%) were male. Data for comorbidities were missing for some children in low-income and middle-income countries. Available data showed that comorbidities were present in at least 33 (28%) children from low-income or lower middle-income countries, 36 (47%) from upper middle-income countries, and 114 (70%) from high-income countries. Median age for RSV-related deaths was 5.0 months (IQR 2.3-11.0) in low-income or lower middle-income countries, 4.0 years (2.0-10.0) in upper middle-income countries, and 7.0 years (3.6-16.8) in high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: This study is the first large case series of children who died with community-acquired RSV infection. A substantial proportion of children with RSV-related death had comorbidities. Our results show that perinatal immunisation strategies for children aged younger than 6 months could have a substantial impact on RSV-related child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Information on the timing of influenza circulation remains scarce in Tropical regions of Africa. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the relationship between influenza activity and several meteorological factors (temperature, specific humidity, precipitation), and characterized the timing of influenza circulation, and its implications to vaccination strategies in Kenya. METHODS: We analyzed virologically-confirmed influenza data for outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI), hospitalized for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI), and cases of severe pneumonia over the period 2007-2013. Using logistic and negative binomial regression methods, we assessed the independent association between climatic variables (lagged up to 4 weeks) and influenza activity. RESULTS: There were multiple influenza epidemics occurring each year and lasting a median duration of 2-4 months. On average, there were two epidemics occurring each year in most of the regions in Kenya, with the first epidemic occurring between the months of February and March and the second one between July and November. Specific humidity was independently and negatively associated with influenza activity. Combinations of low temperature (<18 degrees C) and low specific humidity (<11g/Kg) were significantly associated with increased influenza activity. CONCLUSIONS: Our study broadens understanding of the relationships between seasonal influenza activity and meteorological factors in the Kenyan context. While rainfall is frequently thought to be associated with influenza circulation in the tropics, the present findings suggest low humidity is more important in Kenya. If annual vaccination were a component of a vaccination strategy in Kenya, the months of April to June are proposed as optimal for associated campaigns.