Last data update: Mar 21, 2025. (Total: 48935 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 107 Records) |
Query Trace: Mueller C[original query] |
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Virological impact of HIV drug-resistance testing in children, adolescents, and adults failing first-line ART in Tanzania
Henerico S , Lyimo E , Makubi AN , Magesa D , Desderius B , Mueller A , Changalucha J , Aloyce M , Maziku B , Kidenya BR , Kalluvya SE , Van Zyl G , Preiser W , Mshana SE , Kasang C . J Glob Antimicrob Resist 2024 39 73-81 ![]() BACKGROUND: Prospective data on the effectiveness of resistance testing in informing treatment decisions and outcomes in with first-line failure in these settings is limited. This study aimed to assess the virological impact of HIV drug-resistance testing in patients with virological failure in Tanzania. METHODS: Participants were randomly assigned to either the control or the experimental group. In addition to the standard of care, patients in the experimental group had access to genotypic drug-resistance testing, information used during treatment change and were followed up at six-and 12-months to determine virological suppression. RESULTS: A total of 261 patients with a median age of 32 (14.7-44.7) years were enrolled. In the intention-to-treat analysis, at 6-months, suppression was achieved in 58 (42.3%; 95% CI, 34.1-50.1) experimental group patients versus 51 (41.1%; 95% CI, 32.5-49.8) control group patients, with a p-value of 0.4. At-12 months, suppression was achieved in 110 (80.3%; 95% CI, 73.6-87) experimental patients versus 99 (79.8%; 95% CI, 72.8-86.9) control patients, with a P-value of 0.5. In the per-protocol analysis, at 6-months, suppression was observed in 38.46% (95% CI, 27.6-49.3) experimental patients versus 38.6% (95% CI, 26.0-51.2) control patients, with a P-value of 0.5. At 12-months, suppression was observed in 79.49% (95% CI, 70.5-88.5) of experimental patients versus 75.44% (95% CI, 64.3-86.6) of control patients, with a P-value of 0.3. CONCLUSION: Conducting HIV drug-resistance testing, and switch to individualised second-line regimens did not significantly improve virological suppression in patients experiencing first-line ART failure in Tanzania. |
Challenges of COVID-19 case forecasting in the US, 2020-2021
Lopez VK , Cramer EY , Pagano R , Drake JM , O'Dea EB , Adee M , Ayer T , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller PP , Xiao J , Bracher J , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Ray EL , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Pei S , Shaman J , Yamana TK , Tarasewicz SR , Wilson DJ , Baccam S , Gurung H , Stage S , Suchoski B , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang L , Wang Y , Yu S , Gardner L , Jindal S , Marshall M , Nixon K , Dent J , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Smith CP , Truelove S , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Karlen D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Osthus D , Bian J , Cao W , Gao Z , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Walraven R , Chen J , Gu Q , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Gibson GC , Sheldon D , Srivastava A , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis B , Marathe M , Peddireddy AS , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Wang L , Prasad PV , Walker JW , Webber AE , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG , Johansson MA . PLoS Comput Biol 2024 20 (5) e1011200 During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making. |
Effects of community-wide teen pregnancy prevention initiatives on local teen birth rates in the United States: A synthetic control approach
Tevendale HD , Garraza LG , Brooks MAM , Koumans EH , House LD , Sommerfeldt HM , Brittain A , Mueller T , Fuller TR , Romero L , Fasula A , Warner L . Prev Sci 2024 The impact of community-wide teen pregnancy prevention initiatives (CWIs) on local U.S. birth rates among adolescents aged 15 to 19 years was examined using synthetic control methodology within a quasi-experimental design. CWIs were implemented in 10 U.S. communities from 2010 to 2015. Each initiative implemented evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention interventions at local organizations and enhanced best practices in adolescent reproductive health care at local health centers, while engaging diverse community sectors. The synthetic control method was used to estimate the impact of each CWI on overall and race- and ethnicity-specific teen births relative to rates in synthetic control communities. Additionally, we estimated the overall effect of CWIs across communities by pooling results from the 10 synthetic control case studies using the mean percentile rank. Pooled data across all 10 communities indicated an estimated average of 6.6 fewer births per 1000 teens per year overall during the initiative relative to each community's synthetic control (p = .001). By race and ethnicity, there were an estimated average of 6.4 fewer births per 1000 teens per year among Black teens (p = .03), 10.7 fewer births among Hispanic teens (p = .03), and 4.2 fewer births (p = .10) among White teens. Results from individual communities indicated an intervention effect on overall and/or race/ethnicity-specific teen birth rates in five communities. This study demonstrates the value of synthetic control methods in evaluating community-level outcomes of programmatic efforts. Findings indicate the CWIs had a positive impact on teen birth rates and have the potential to address racial and ethnic disparities in those rates. |
Phenylketonuria Scientific Review Conference: state of the science and future research needs.
Camp KM , Parisi MA , Acosta PB , Berry GT , Bilder DA , Blau N , Bodamer OA , Brosco JP , Brown CS , Burlina AB , Burton BK , Chang CS , Coates PM , Cunningham AC , Dobrowolski SF , Ferguson JH , Franklin TD , Frazier DM , Grange DK , Greene CL , Groft SC , Harding CO , Howell RR , Huntington KL , Hyatt-Knorr HD , Jevaji IP , Levy HL , Lichter-Konecki U , Lindegren ML , Lloyd-Puryear MA , Matalon K , MacDonald A , McPheeters ML , Mitchell JJ , Mofidi S , Moseley KD , Mueller CM , Mulberg AE , Nerurkar LS , Ogata BN , Pariser AR , Prasad S , Pridjian G , Rasmussen SA , Reddy UM , Rohr FJ , Singh RH , Sirrs SM , Stremer SE , Tagle DA , Thompson SM , Urv TK , Utz JR , van Spronsen F , Vockley J , Waisbren SE , Weglicki LS , White DA , Whitley CB , Wilfond BS , Yannicelli S , Young JM . Mol Genet Metab 2014 112 (2) 87-122 ![]() New developments in the treatment and management of phenylketonuria (PKU) as well as advances in molecular testing have emerged since the National Institutes of Health 2000 PKU Consensus Statement was released. An NIH State-of-the-Science Conference was convened in 2012 to address new findings, particularly the use of the medication sapropterin to treat some individuals with PKU, and to develop a research agenda. Prior to the 2012 conference, five working groups of experts and public members met over a 1-year period. The working groups addressed the following: long-term outcomes and management across the lifespan; PKU and pregnancy; diet control and management; pharmacologic interventions; and molecular testing, new technologies, and epidemiologic considerations. In a parallel and independent activity, an Evidence-based Practice Center supported by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality conducted a systematic review of adjuvant treatments for PKU; its conclusions were presented at the conference. The conference included the findings of the working groups, panel discussions from industry and international perspectives, and presentations on topics such as emerging treatments for PKU, transitioning to adult care, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulatory perspective. Over 85 experts participated in the conference through information gathering and/or as presenters during the conference, and they reached several important conclusions. The most serious neurological impairments in PKU are preventable with current dietary treatment approaches. However, a variety of more subtle physical, cognitive, and behavioral consequences of even well-controlled PKU are now recognized. The best outcomes in maternal PKU occur when blood phenylalanine (Phe) concentrations are maintained between 120 and 360 μmol/L before and during pregnancy. The dietary management treatment goal for individuals with PKU is a blood Phe concentration between 120 and 360 μmol/L. The use of genotype information in the newborn period may yield valuable insights about the severity of the condition for infants diagnosed before maximal Phe levels are achieved. While emerging and established genotype-phenotype correlations may transform our understanding of PKU, establishing correlations with intellectual outcomes is more challenging. Regarding the use of sapropterin in PKU, there are significant gaps in predicting response to treatment; at least half of those with PKU will have either minimal or no response. A coordinated approach to PKU treatment improves long-term outcomes for those with PKU and facilitates the conduct of research to improve diagnosis and treatment. New drugs that are safe, efficacious, and impact a larger proportion of individuals with PKU are needed. However, it is imperative that treatment guidelines and the decision processes for determining access to treatments be tied to a solid evidence base with rigorous standards for robust and consistent data collection. The process that preceded the PKU State-of-the-Science Conference, the conference itself, and the identification of a research agenda have facilitated the development of clinical practice guidelines by professional organizations and serve as a model for other inborn errors of metabolism. |
Naegleria fowleri detected in Grand Teton National Park Hot Springs
Barnhart EP , Kinsey SM , Wright PR , Caldwell SL , Hill V , Kahler A , Mattioli M , Cornman RS , Iwanowicz D , Eddy Z , Halonen S , Mueller R , Peyton BM , Puzon GJ . ACS ES and T Water 2023 ![]() ![]() The free-living thermophilic amoeba Naegleria fowleri (N. fowleri) causes the highly fatal disease primary amoebic meningoencephalitis. The environmental conditions that are favorable to the growth and proliferation of N. fowleri are not well-defined, especially in northern regions of the United States. In this study, we used culture-based methods and multiple molecular approaches to detect and analyzeN. fowleri and other Naegleria spp. in water, sediment, and biofilm samples from five hot spring sites in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, U.S.A. These results provide the first detections of N. fowleri in Grand Teton National Park and provide new insights into the distribution of pathogenic N. fowleri and other nonpathogenic Naegleria spp. in natural thermal water systems in northern latitudes. © 2024 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society. |
Vibrio species: development of EUCAST susceptibility testing methods and MIC and zone diameter distributions on which to determine clinical breakpoints
Karatuna O , Matuschek E , Åhman J , Caidi H , Kahlmeter G . J Antimicrob Chemother 2023 OBJECTIVES: Most human infections caused by Vibrio spp. do not warrant antimicrobial treatment but in severe cases, targeted antimicrobial treatment can be lifesaving. For Vibrio spp., standardized antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) guidelines with EUCAST methodology are lacking. In this study, we aimed to produce data suitable for EUCAST to establish clinical MIC breakpoints and zone diameter correlates for Vibrio spp. METHODS: An intercontinental collection (N = 524) comprising five important Vibrio spp. (V. alginolyticus, V. cholerae, V. fluvialis, V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus) was organized. All isolates were subjected to broth microdilution (BMD) against 11 antimicrobial agents according to ISO 20776-1 using unsupplemented Mueller-Hinton broth on freeze-dried Sensititre panels (Thermo Scientific, UK), and most isolates (n = 371) were also tested with disc diffusion according to EUCAST methodology for non-fastidious organisms. RESULTS: Aggregated results were used to generate MIC and zone diameter distributions and to prepare graphs of MIC-zone diameter correlation. Based on these results, the EUCAST Steering Committee determined clinical susceptible (S) and resistant (R) MIC (mg/L) breakpoints (S≤/R>) for the five Vibrio spp. for piperacillin/tazobactam (1/1), cefotaxime (0.25/0.25), ceftazidime (1/1), meropenem (0.5/0.5), ciprofloxacin (0.25/0.25), levofloxacin (0.25/0.25), azithromycin (4/4), doxycycline (0.5/0.5) and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (0.25/0.25). The corresponding zone diameter breakpoints were identified. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the validity of using standard BMD and EUCAST disc diffusion methodology for AST of five Vibrio spp., and generated suitable data to allow EUCAST to determine clinical MIC and zone diameter breakpoints for five pathogenic Vibrio spp., including both non-toxigenic and toxigenic V. cholerae. |
Antimicrobial Resistance Laboratory Network's multisite evaluation of the ThermoFisher Sensititre GN7F broth microdilution panel for antimicrobial susceptibility testing
Bhatnagar AS , Machado MJ , Patterson L , Anderson K , Abelman RL , Bateman A , Biggs A , Bumpus-White P , Craft B , Howard M , LaVoie SP , Lonsway D , Sabour S , Schneider A , Snippes-Vagnone P , Tran M , Torpey D , Valley A , Elkins CA , Karlsson M , Brown AC . J Clin Microbiol 2023 61 (12) e0079923 In 2017, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) established the Antimicrobial Resistance Laboratory Network to improve domestic detection of multidrug-resistant organisms. CDC and four laboratories evaluated a commercial broth microdilution panel. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing using the Sensititre GN7F (ThermoFisher Scientific, Lenexa, KS) was evaluated by testing 100 CDC and Food and Drug Administration AR Isolate Bank isolates [40 Enterobacterales (ENT), 30 Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PSA), and 30 Acinetobacter baumannii (ACB)]. We assessed multiple amounts of transfer volume (TV) between the inoculum and tubed 11-mL cation-adjusted Mueller-Hinton broth: 1 µL [tribe Proteeae (P-tribe) only] and 10, 30, and 50 µL, resulting in respective CFU per milliter of 1 × 10(4), 1 × 10(5), 3 × 10(5), and 5 × 10(5). Four TV combinations were analyzed: standard (STD) [1 µL (P-tribe) and 10 µL], enhanced standard (E-STD) [1 µL (P-tribe) and 30 µL], 30 µL, and 50 µL. Essential agreement (EA), categorical agreement, major error (ME), and very major error (VME) were analyzed by organism then TVs. For ENT, the average EA across laboratories was <90% for 7 of 15 β-lactams using STD and E-STD TVs. As TVs increased, EA increased (>90%), and VMEs decreased. For PSA, EA improved as TVs increased; however, MEs also increased. For ACB, increased TVs provided slight EA improvements; all TVs yielded multiple VMEs and MEs. For ENT and ACB, Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) trended downward using a 1 or 10 µL TV; there were no obvious MIC trends by TV for PSA. The public health and clinical consequences of missing resistance warrant increased TV of 30 µL for the GN7F, particularly for P-tribe, despite being considered "off-label" use. |
Increasing access to quality care for pregnant and postpartum people with opioid use disorder: Coordination of services, provider awareness and training, extended postpartum coverage, and perinatal quality collaboratives
Ellick KL , Kroelinger CD , Chang K , McGown M , McReynolds M , Velonis AJ , Bronson E , Riehle-Colarusso T , Pliska E , Akbarali S , Mueller T , Dronamraju R , Cox S , Barfield WD . J Subst Use Addict Treat 2023 156 209208 INTRODUCTION: Fifteen states participating in the Opioid Use Disorder, Maternal Outcomes, and Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome Initiative Learning Community (OMNI LC) developed action plan goals and activities to address the rise in opioid use disorder (OUD) among birthing persons. In a separate initiative, Perinatal Quality Collaboratives (PQCs) from 12 states participating in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-supported activities hosted trainings to improve the provision of OUD services and implement protocols for screening and treatment in delivery facilities. METHODS: This descriptive study synthesizes qualitative data extracted from 15 OMNI LC state action plans, excerpts from qualitative interviews conducted with OMNI LC state teams, and quantitative data from quarterly project performance monitoring reports from 12 CDC-funded PQCs implementing quality improvement activities to address clinical service gaps for pregnant and postpartum people with OUD. Qualitative data were deidentified, coded as barriers or facilitators, then aggregated into emergent themes. Count data are presented for quantitative results. RESULTS: The OMNI LC states identified a lack of coordinated care among providers, stigma toward people with OUD, discontinued insurance coverage, and inconsistencies in screening and treating birthing people with OUD as barriers to accessing quality care. Facilitators for access to quality care states identified included: 1) improving engagement and communication between providers and other partners to integrate medical and behavioral health services post-discharge, and facilitate improved patient care postpartum; 2) training providers to prescribe medications for OUD, and to address bias and reduce patient stigma; 3) extending Medicaid coverage up to one year postpartum to increase access to and continuity of services; and 4) implementing screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) in clinical practice. PQCs demonstrated that increased provider trainings to treat OUD, improvements in implementation of standardized protocols, and use of evidence-based tools can facilitate access to and coordination of services in delivery facilities. CONCLUSION: State-identified facilitators for increasing access to care include coordinating integrated services, extending postpartum coverage, and provider trainings to improve screening and treatment. PQCs provide a platform for identifying emerging areas for quality improvement initiatives and implementing clinical best practices to provide comprehensive, quality perinatal care for birthing populations. |
Vital Signs: Maternity care experiences - United States, April 2023
Mohamoud YA , Cassidy E , Fuchs E , Womack LS , Romero L , Kipling L , Oza-Frank R , Baca K , Galang RR , Stewart A , Carrigan S , Mullen J , Busacker A , Behm B , Hollier LM , Kroelinger C , Mueller T , Barfield WD , Cox S . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (35) 961-967 INTRODUCTION: Maternal deaths increased in the United States during 2018-2021, with documented racial disparities. Respectful maternity care is a component of quality care that includes preventing harm and mistreatment, engaging in effective communication, and providing care equitably. Improving respectful maternity care can be part of multilevel strategies to reduce pregnancy-related deaths. METHODS: CDC analyzed data from the PN View Moms survey administered during April 24-30, 2023, to examine the following components of respectful care: 1) experiences of mistreatment (e.g., violations of physical privacy, ignoring requests for help, or verbal abuse), 2) discrimination (e.g., because of race, ethnicity or skin color; age; or weight), and 3) reasons for holding back from communicating questions or concerns during maternity (pregnancy or delivery) care. RESULTS: Among U.S. mothers with children aged <18 years, 20% reported mistreatment while receiving maternity care for their youngest child. Approximately 30% of Black, Hispanic, and multiracial respondents and approximately 30% of respondents with public insurance or no insurance reported mistreatment. Discrimination during the delivery of maternity care was reported by 29% of respondents. Approximately 40% of Black, Hispanic, and multiracial respondents reported discrimination, and approximately 45% percent of all respondents reported holding back from asking questions or discussing concerns with their provider. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE: Approximately one in five women reported mistreatment during maternity care. Implementing quality improvement initiatives and provider training to encourage a culture of respectful maternity care, encouraging patients to ask questions and share concerns, and working with communities are strategies to improve respectful maternity care. |
Inventory of U.S. Public data sources to measure the socioeconomic impact of experiencing interpersonal violence
Papp J , Mueller-Smith M , Kearns MC , Peterson C . AJPM Focus 2023 2 (3) 100114 INTRODUCTION: There is limited recent information regarding the impact of interpersonal violence on an individual's non-health-related experiences and attainment, including criminal activity, education, employment, family status, housing, income, quality of life, or wealth. This study aimed to identify publicly available representative data sources to measure the socioeconomic impact of experiencing interpersonal violence in the U.S. METHODS: In 2022, the authors reviewed data sources indexed in Data.gov, the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research data archive, and the U.S. Census Bureau's Federal Statistical Research Data Center network to identify sources that reported both nonfatal violence exposure and socioeconomic status-or data sources linking opportunities to achieve both measures-over time (i.e., longitudinal/repeated cross-sections) at the individual level. Relevant data sources were characterized in terms of data type (e.g., survey), violence measure type (e.g., intimate partner violence), socioeconomic measure type (e.g., income), data years, and geographic coverage. RESULTS: Sixteen data sources were identified. Adverse childhood experiences, intimate partner violence, and sexual violence were the most common types of violence faced. Income, education, and family status were the most common socioeconomic measures. Linked administrative data offered the broadest and the most in-depth analytical opportunities. CONCLUSIONS: Currently, linked administrative data appears to offer the most comprehensive opportunities to examine the long-term impact of violence on individuals' livelihoods. This type of data infrastructure may provide cost-effective research opportunities to better understand the elements of the economic burden of violence and improve targeting of prevention strategies. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 ![]() Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Optical microscopy reveals the dynamic nature of B. pseudomallei morphology during β-lactam antimicrobial susceptibility testing (preprint)
McLaughlin HP , Bugrysheva J , Sue D . bioRxiv 2020 2020.01.13.904995 Background In Gram-negative species, β-lactam antibiotics target penicillin binding proteins (PBPs) resulting in morphological alterations of bacterial cells. Observations of antibiotic-induced cell morphology changes can rapidly and accurately differentiate drug susceptible from resistant bacterial strains; however, resistant cells do not always remain unchanged. Burkholderia pseudomallei is a Gram-negative, biothreat pathogen and the causative agent of melioidosis, an often fatal infectious disease for humans.Results Here, we identified β-lactam targets in B. pseudomallei by in silico analysis. Ten genes encoding putative PBPs, including PBP-1, PBP-2, PBP-3 and PBP-6, were detected in the genomes of susceptible and resistant strains. Real-time, live-cell imaging of B. pseudomallei strains demonstrated dynamic morphological changes in broth containing clinically relevant β-lactam antibiotics. At sub-inhibitory concentrations of ceftazidime (CAZ), amoxicillin-clavulanic acid (AMC), and imipenem (IPM), filamentation, varying in length and proportion, was an initial response of the multidrug-resistant strain Bp1651 in exponential phase. However, a dominant morphotype reemerged during stationary phase that resembled cells unexposed to antibiotics. Similar morphology dynamics were observed for AMC-resistant strains, MSHR1655 and 724644, when exposed to sub-inhibitory concentrations of AMC. For all B. pseudomallei strains evaluated, increased exposure time and exposure to increased concentrations of AMC at and above minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) in broth resulted in cell morphology shifts from filaments to spheroplasts and/or cell lysis. B. pseudomallei morphology changes were more consistent in IPM. Spheroplast formation followed by cell lysis was observed for all strains in broth containing IPM at concentrations greater than or equal to MICs, however, the time to cell lysis was variable. Length of B. pseudomallei cells was strain-, drug- and drug concentration-dependent.Conclusions Both resistant and susceptible B. pseudomallei strains exhibited filamentation during early exposure to AMC and CAZ at concentrations used to interpret susceptibility (based on CLSI guidelines). While developing a rapid β-lactam antimicrobial susceptibility test based on cell-shape alone requires more extensive analyses, optical microscopy detected B. pseudomallei growth attributes that lend insight into antibiotic response and antibacterial mechanisms of action.(AST)Antimicrobial susceptibility test,(BMD)broth microdilution,(CLSI)Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute,(IPM)imipenem,(CAZ)ceftazidime,(AMC)amoxicillin-clavulanic acid,(MDR)multidrug-resistant,(R)resistant,(I)intermediate,(S)susceptible,(SBA)Trypticase Soy Agar II with 5% sheep blood,(CAMHB)cation-adjusted Mueller Hinton broth,(MIC)minimal inhibitory concentrations,(TES)N-tris(hydroxymethyl) methyl-2-aminoethanesulfonic acid,(SESA)Segmentation and Extraction Surface Area,(SD)standard deviation,(PBPs)penicillin-binding proteins. |
Geographic Information System Protocol for Mapping Areas Targeted for Mosquito Control in North Carolina (preprint)
Mueller A , Thomas A , Brown J , Young A , Smith K , Connelly R , Richards SL . medRxiv 2022 15 Geographic information systems (GIS) can be used to map mosquito larval and adult habitats and human populations at risk for mosquito exposure and possible arbovirus transmission. GIS can help simplify and target mosquito control efforts during routine surveillance and post-disaster (e.g., hurricane-related flooding) to protect emergency workers and public health. A practical method for prioritizing areas for emergency mosquito control has been developed and is described here. North Carolina (NC) One Map was used to identify state-level data layers of interest based on human population distribution and mosquito habitat in Brunswick, Columbus, Onslow, and Robeson Counties in eastern NC. Relevant data layers were included to create mosquito control treatment areas for targeted control and an 18-step protocol for map development is discussed. This protocol is expected to help state, territorial, tribal, and/or local public health officials and associated mosquito control programs efficiently create treatment area maps to improve strategic planning in advance of a disaster. This protocol may be applied to any NC county and beyond, thereby increasing local disaster preparedness. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license. |
Fetal sex and risk of pregnancy-associated malaria in Plasmodium falciparum-endemic regions: a meta-analysis
Unger HW , Hadiprodjo AJ , Gutman JR , Briand V , Fievet N , Valea I , Tinto H , D'Alessandro U , Landis SH , Ter Kuile F , Ouma P , Oneko M , Mwapasa V , Slutsker L , Terlouw DJ , Kariuki S , Ayisi J , Nahlen B , Desai M , Madanitsa M , Kalilani-Phiri L , Ashorn P , Maleta K , Tshefu-Kitoto A , Mueller I , Stanisic D , Cates J , Van Eijk AM , Ome-Kaius M , Aitken EH , Rogerson SJ . Sci Rep 2023 13 (1) 10310 In areas of moderate to intense Plasmodium falciparum transmission, malaria in pregnancy remains a significant cause of low birth weight, stillbirth, and severe anaemia. Previously, fetal sex has been identified to modify the risks of maternal asthma, pre-eclampsia, and gestational diabetes. One study demonstrated increased risk of placental malaria in women carrying a female fetus. We investigated the association between fetal sex and malaria in pregnancy in 11 pregnancy studies conducted in sub-Saharan African countries and Papua New Guinea through meta-analysis using log binomial regression fitted to a random-effects model. Malaria infection during pregnancy and delivery was assessed using light microscopy, polymerase chain reaction, and histology. Five studies were observational studies and six were randomised controlled trials. Studies varied in terms of gravidity, gestational age at antenatal enrolment and bed net use. Presence of a female fetus was associated with malaria infection at enrolment by light microscopy (risk ratio 1.14 [95% confidence interval 1.04, 1.24]; P = 0.003; n = 11,729). Fetal sex did not associate with malaria infection when other time points or diagnostic methods were used. There is limited evidence that fetal sex influences the risk of malaria infection in pregnancy. |
Measurable radiation levels around individuals externally contaminated by nuclear fallout
Samuels C , Ansari A , Finklea L , Hertel N . Radiat Prot Dosimetry 2023 199 (12) 1310-1323 ![]() During the early response to large-scale radioactive contamination events, people who are potentially affected need to be screened for radioactive contamination and public health staff need to triage individuals who may need immediate decontamination. This is typically done by screening individuals for external contamination using ionising radiation detection equipment. In this study, spatially and temporally dependent isotopic compositions from a simulated nuclear detonation and Monte Carlo methods were used to relate contamination activity levels to the measurable radiation levels at select distances away from an individual with whole-body contamination. Radionuclide-specific air kerma rate coefficients and Geiger-Mueller instrument response coefficients at five select distances from contaminated individuals are presented for 662 radionuclides. Temporally and spatially dependent incident-specific coefficients are presented for a hypothetical surface detonation of a 235U-fueled device. |
Buprenorphine use and setting type among reproductive-aged women self-reporting nonmedical prescription opioid use
DeSisto CL , Terplan M , Kacha-Ochana A , Green JL , Mueller T , Cox S , Ko JY . J Subst Use Addict Treat 2023 155 209083 INTRODUCTION: Screening for opioid misuse and treatment for opioid use disorder are critical for reducing morbidity and mortality. We sought to understand the extent of self-reported past 30-day buprenorphine use in various settings among women of reproductive age with self-reported nonmedical prescription opioid use being assessed for substance use problems. METHODS: The study collected data from individuals being assessed for substance use problems using the Addiction Severity Index-Multimedia Version in 2018-2020. We stratified the sample of 10,196 women ages 12-55 self-reporting past 30-day nonmedical prescription opioid use by buprenorphine use and setting type. We categorized setting types as: buprenorphine in specialty addiction treatment, buprenorphine in office-based opioid treatment, and diverted buprenorphine. We included each woman's first intake assessment during the study period. The study assessed number of buprenorphine products, reasons for using buprenorphine, and sources of buprenorphine procurement. The study calculated frequency of reasons for using buprenorphine to treat opioid use disorder outside of a doctor-managed treatment, overall and by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Overall, 25.5 % of the sample used buprenorphine in specialty addiction treatment, 6.1 % used buprenorphine prescribed in office-based treatment, 21.7 % used diverted buprenorphine, and 46.7 % reported no buprenorphine use during the past 30 days. Among women who reported using buprenorphine to treat opioid use disorder, but not as part of a doctor-managed treatment, 72.3 % could not find a provider or get into a treatment program, 21.8 % did not want to be part of a program or see a provider, and 6.0 % reported both; a higher proportion of American Indian/Alaska Native women (92.1 %) reported that they could not find a provider or get into a treatment program versus non-Hispanic White (78.0 %), non-Hispanic Black (76.0 %), and Hispanic (75.0 %) women. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate screening for nonmedical prescription opioid use to assess need for treatment with medication for opioid use disorder is important for all women of reproductive age. Our data highlight opportunities to improve treatment program accessibility and availability and support the need to increase equitable access for all women. |
Searching for evidence in public health emergencies: a white paper of best practices
Brody S , Loree S , Sampson M , Mensinkai S , Coffman J , Mueller MH , Askin N , Hamill C , Wilson E , McAteer MB , Staines H , Hamill C , Dobbins M , Claussen AM , Kothari KU , De Brún C , Young S , Neil-Sztramko SE , Wilson E , Featherstone RM , Sampson M , Staines H , Knuth M . J Med Libr Assoc 2023 111 566-578 Objectives: Information professionals have supported medical providers, administrators and decision-makers, and guideline creators in the COVID-19 response. Searching COVID-19 literature presented new challenges, including the volume and heterogeneity of literature and the proliferation of new information sources, and exposed existing issues in metadata and publishing. An expert panel developed best practices, including recommendations, elaborations, and examples, for searching during public health emergencies. Methods: Project directors and advisors developed core elements from experience and literature. Experts, identified by affiliation with evidence synthesis groups, COVID-19 search experience, and nomination, responded to an online survey to reach consensus on core elements. Expert participants provided written responses to guiding questions. A synthesis of responses provided the foundation for focus group discussions. A writing group then drafted the best practices into a statement. Experts reviewed the statement prior to dissemination. Results: Twelve information professionals contributed to best practice recommendations on six elements: core resources, search strategies, publication types, transparency and reproducibility, collaboration, and conducting research. Underlying principles across recommendations include timeliness, openness, balance, preparedness, and responsiveness. Conclusions: The authors and experts anticipate the recommendations for searching for evidence during public health emergencies will help information specialists, librarians, evidence synthesis groups, researchers, and decision-makers respond to future public health emergencies, including but not limited to disease outbreaks. The recommendations complement existing guidance by addressing concerns specific to emergency response. The statement is intended as a living document. Future revisions should solicit input from a broader community and reflect conclusions of meta-research on COVID-19 and health emergencies. © 2023, Medical Library Association. All rights reserved. |
Assessing sustainability of state-led action plans for the Opioid Use Disorder, Maternal Outcomes, And Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome Initiative Learning Community, 2018-2021
Kroelinger CD , Ellick KL , Levecke M , Rice ME , Mueller T , Akbarali S , Pliska E , Ko JY , Cox S , Barfield WD . J Womens Health (Larchmt) 2023 32 (5) 503-512 Objective(s): The opioid crisis affects the health and health care of pregnant and postpartum people and infants prenatally exposed to substances. A Learning Community (LC) among 15 states was implemented to improve services for these populations. States drafted action plans with goals, strategies, and activities. Materials and Methods: Qualitative data from action plans were analyzed to assess how reported activities aligned with focus areas each year. Year 2 focus areas were compared with year 1 to identify shifts or expansion of activities. States self-assessed progress at the LC closing meeting, reported goal completion, barriers and facilitators affecting goal completion, and sustainment strategies. Results: In year 2, many states included activities focused on access to and coordination of quality services (13 of 15 states) and provider awareness and training (11 of 15). Among 12 states participating in both years of the LC, 11 expanded activities to include at least one additional focus area, adding activities in financing and coverage of services (n = 6); consumer awareness and education (n = 5); or ethical, legal, and social considerations (n = 4). Of the 39 goals developed by states, 54% were completed, and of those not completed, 94% had ongoing activities. Barriers to goal completion included competing priorities and pandemic-related constraints, whereas facilitators involving use of the LC as a forum for information-sharing and leadership-supported goal completion. Sustainability strategies were continued provider training and partnership with Perinatal Quality Collaboratives. Conclusion: State LC participation supported sustainment of activities to improve health and health care for pregnant and postpartum people with opioid use disorder and infants prenatally exposed to substances. |
Geographic information system protocol for mapping areas targeted for mosquito control in North Carolina
Mueller A , Thomas A , Brown J , Young A , Smith K , Connelly R , Richards SL . PLoS One 2023 18 (3) e0278253 Geographic information systems (GIS) can be used to map mosquito larval and adult habitats and human populations at risk for mosquito exposure and possible arbovirus transmission. Along with traditional methods of surveillance-based targeted mosquito control, GIS can help simplify and target efforts during routine surveillance and post-disaster (e.g., hurricane-related flooding) to protect emergency workers and public health. A practical method for prioritizing areas for emergency mosquito control has been developed and is described here. North Carolina (NC) One Map was used to identify state-level data layers of interest based on human population distribution and mosquito habitat in Brunswick, Columbus, Onslow, and Robeson Counties in eastern NC. Relevant data layers were included to create mosquito control treatment areas for targeted control and an 18-step protocol for map development is discussed. This protocol is expected to help state, territorial, tribal, and/or local public health officials and associated mosquito control programs efficiently create treatment area maps to improve strategic planning in advance of a disaster. This protocol may be applied to any NC county and beyond, thereby increasing local disaster preparedness. |
Associations of early life phthalate exposures with adolescent lipid levels and insulin resistance: The HOME Study
Etzel TM , Kuiper JR , Wang X , Mueller NT , Calafat AM , Cecil KM , Chen A , Lanphear BP , Yolton K , Kalkwarf HJ , Braun JM , Buckley JP . Int J Hyg Environ Health 2022 248 114102 BACKGROUND: Early-life phthalate exposures may disrupt metabolic processes; however few prospective studies have assessed whether these associations extend to cardiometabolic outcomes during adolescence. METHODS: Among 183 mother-adolescent pairs in a prospective cohort study that enrolled pregnant women in Cincinnati, OH (2003-2006), we quantified nine phthalate metabolites in spot urine samples collected twice from mothers during pregnancy and up to seven times from children. At age 12 years, we assessed triglycerides, high-density (HDL) and low-density (LDL) lipoprotein cholesterol, insulin, and glucose from fasting serum samples and calculated homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Using multiple informant models, we estimated covariate-adjusted associations between urinary phthalate concentrations at each time period and cardiometabolic biomarkers at age 12 years, including modification by child sex. RESULTS: Although most associations were weak or null, monoethyl phthalate (MEP), mono-n-butyl phthalate (MnBP), mono-isobutyl phthalate (MiBP), and monobenzyl phthalate (MBzP) concentrations were generally associated with lower LDL at age 12 years. A 10-fold increase in 4- and 12-year MEP was associated with -15.3mg/dL (95% CI: 27.5, -3.13mg/dL) and -11.8mg/dL (-22.0, -1.51mg/dL) lower LDL, respectively. Discrepant associations were observed in females versus males: a 10-fold increase in 3-year MEP concentrations was associated with 12.0mg/dL (95% CI: 7.11, 31.1mg/dL) higher LDL levels in males and -30.4mg/dL (95% CI: 50.9, -9.8mg/dL) lower LDL levels in females. Some urinary phthalate concentrations were cross-sectionally associated with HOMA-IR. CONCLUSIONS: Early-life phthalate biomarker concentrations may be inversely associated with LDL during early adolescence in an exposure-period and sex-dependent manner. |
Primary resistance against integrase strand transfer inhibitors in integrase strand transfer inhibitor-naive patients failing first- and second-line ART in Tanzania.
Henerico S , Lyimo E , Makubi AN , Magesa D , Desderius B , Mueller A , Changalucha J , Kalluvya SE , Van Zyl G , Preiser W , Mshana SE , Kasang C . J Antimicrob Chemother 2022 77 (11) 3138-3143 ![]() INTRODUCTION: Sub-Saharan African countries are introducing integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) in their ART programmes as the preferred first-line regimen, and dolutegravir is the INSTI of choice due to its potency, tolerability and high genetic barrier to resistance. Dolutegravir was introduced into the first-line ART regimen in Tanzania in 2019. However, there is a paucity of data on the occurrence of mutations in HIV lineages circulating in Tanzania. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of INSTI primary resistance mutations in Tanzanian patients exposed to ART but not INSTIs. METHODS: Plasma samples from 50 INSTI-naive patients failing first- or second-line ART [median (IQR) age: 40 (21.93-46.41) years; 68% women] were subjected to Sanger sequencing of the HIV integrase gene. Participants had been on ART for a median (IQR) duration of 7.32 (4.73-9.29) years, with 80% and 20% failing first- and second-line ART, respectively. RESULTS: No major INSTI mutations were found, but 2 (4%) participants had the accessory mutation T97A. Using the REGA HIV-1 subtyping tool, HIV subtype A1 (53.1%) was found to be dominant, followed by subtypes C (30.6%) and D (16.3%). CONCLUSIONS: This study found no current evidence for transmitted resistance against INSTIs among unexposed patients failing ART and supports the scale-up of INSTI-based regimens. However, the presence of accessory mutations calls for the surveillance of INSTI resistance mutations to ensure that the anticipated long-term desired outcomes are achieved. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022 119 (15) e2113561119 ![]() SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action. |
A field placement approach to enhance state and local capacity for opioid-related issues affecting pregnant and postpartum people and infants prenatally exposed to opioids and other substances
Weber MK , Tran EL , Kroelinger CD , Ellison C , Mueller T , Romero L , Ellick KL , Rice ME , Garcia G , Pliska E , Akbarali S , Dronamraju R , Patterson K , Fehrenbach SN , Barfield WD . J Womens Health (Larchmt) 2022 31 (2) 145-153 Opioid use disorder (OUD) poses a significant public health concern impacting maternal and infant outcomes. In 2018, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) to develop the Opioid use disorder, Maternal outcomes, and Neonatal abstinence syndrome Initiative Learning Community (OMNI LC) to identify and disseminate best practices and strategies for implementing systems-level changes in state health departments to address OUD affecting pregnant and postpartum persons and infants prenatally exposed to opioids. In 2019, the OMNI LC incorporated a field placement approach that assigned temporary field placement staff in five select OMNI LC states to provide important linkages, facilitate information sharing, and strengthen capacity among state and local health departments and other partners supporting maternal and child health communities affected by the opioid crisis. Using an implementation science framework, the field placement approach was assessed using five implementation outcome measures: appropriateness, acceptability, implementation cost, sustainability, and feasibility. Written responses from the participating OMNI LC states on these implementation outcome measures were analyzed to (1) highlight key strategies used by field placement staff, (2) assess the implementation of the OMNI LC field placement approach within the context of implementation science, and (3) identify implementation barriers. This report describes the implementation of a temporary field placement approach and suggests that this approach could be replicated to enhance state and local capacity to respond to the opioid crisis or other high-consequence events. |
Implementation of Community-Wide Initiatives Designed to Reduce Teen Pregnancy: Measuring Progress in a 5-Year Project in 10 Communities
House LD , Tevendale H , Brittain A , Burley K , Fuller TR , Mueller T , Romero L , Venugopalan B , Koumans EH . Sex Res Social Policy 2021 19 (2) 496-508 Introduction: Community-wide initiatives (CWI) to prevent teen pregnancy were implemented in 10 communities in the USA. The CWI supported the implementation of evidence-based teen pregnancy interventions (EBIs) and implementation of best practices for adolescent reproductive health care. Implementation was supported through mobilizing communities, educating stakeholders, and strategies to promote health equity. Methods: We assessed indicators of progress of the CWI for the following five project components (data collected from 2010 to 2015): community mobilization, stakeholder education, working with diverse communities, evidence-based interventions, and increasing access to clinical services and the potential contributions of training and technical assistance. Results: Communities engaged multiple stakeholder groups to contribute to planning, community outreach and education, and partnership development and used multiple dissemination methods to share information on adolescent reproductive health needs and teen pregnancy prevention strategies. The amount of training and technical assistance from state- and community-based organizations was associated with increased numbers of youth receiving EBIs and increased provision of contraceptives. The number of health centers implementing best practices for adolescent reproductive health services increased; conducting sexual health assessments, offering hormonal contraception or IUD, and offering quick start of IUDs were associated with increases in long-acting reversible contraception utilization. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that scaled prevention efforts can occur with adequate support including training and technical assistance and community awareness and engagement in the process. Policy Implications: The findings raise important questions for understanding what factors contribute to successful community-wide implementation of EBIs and health center best practices for contraceptive access and whether these lead to reductions in teen pregnancies in highly impacted communities. © 2021, This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply. |
The risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia after P. falciparum malaria: An individual patient data meta-analysis from the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network
Hossain MS , Commons RJ , Douglas NM , Thriemer K , Alemayehu BH , Amaratunga C , Anvikar AR , Ashley EA , Asih PBS , Carrara VI , Lon C , D'Alessandro U , Davis TME , Dondorp AM , Edstein MD , Fairhurst RM , Ferreira MU , Hwang J , Janssens B , Karunajeewa H , Kiechel JR , Ladeia-Andrade S , Laman M , Mayxay M , McGready R , Moore BR , Mueller I , Newton PN , Thuy-Nhien NT , Noedl H , Nosten F , Phyo AP , Poespoprodjo JR , Saunders DL , Smithuis F , Spring MD , Stepniewska K , Suon S , Suputtamongkol Y , Syafruddin D , Tran HT , Valecha N , Van Herp M , Van Vugt M , White NJ , Guerin PJ , Simpson JA , Price RN . PLoS Med 2020 17 (11) e1003393 BACKGROUND: There is a high risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia following treatment of falciparum malaria. Our study aimed to quantify this risk and the associated determinants using an individual patient data meta-analysis in order to identify populations in which a policy of universal radical cure, combining artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) with a hypnozoitocidal antimalarial drug, would be beneficial. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review of Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews identified efficacy studies of uncomplicated falciparum malaria treated with ACT that were undertaken in regions coendemic for P. vivax between 1 January 1960 and 5 January 2018. Data from eligible studies were pooled using standardised methodology. The risk of P. vivax parasitaemia at days 42 and 63 and associated risk factors were investigated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. Study quality was assessed using a tool developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. The study was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42018097400). In total, 42 studies enrolling 15,341 patients were included in the analysis, including 30 randomised controlled trials and 12 cohort studies. Overall, 14,146 (92.2%) patients had P. falciparum monoinfection and 1,195 (7.8%) mixed infection with P. falciparum and P. vivax. The median age was 17.0 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 9.0-29.0 years; range = 0-80 years), with 1,584 (10.3%) patients younger than 5 years. 2,711 (17.7%) patients were treated with artemether-lumefantrine (AL, 13 studies), 651 (4.2%) with artesunate-amodiaquine (AA, 6 studies), 7,340 (47.8%) with artesunate-mefloquine (AM, 25 studies), and 4,639 (30.2%) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP, 16 studies). 14,537 patients (94.8%) were enrolled from the Asia-Pacific region, 684 (4.5%) from the Americas, and 120 (0.8%) from Africa. At day 42, the cumulative risk of vivax parasitaemia following treatment of P. falciparum was 31.1% (95% CI 28.9-33.4) after AL, 14.1% (95% CI 10.8-18.3) after AA, 7.4% (95% CI 6.7-8.1) after AM, and 4.5% (95% CI 3.9-5.3) after DP. By day 63, the risks had risen to 39.9% (95% CI 36.6-43.3), 42.4% (95% CI 34.7-51.2), 22.8% (95% CI 21.2-24.4), and 12.8% (95% CI 11.4-14.5), respectively. In multivariable analyses, the highest rate of P. vivax parasitaemia over 42 days of follow-up was in patients residing in areas of short relapse periodicity (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 6.2, 95% CI 2.0-19.5; p = 0.002); patients treated with AL (AHR = 6.2, 95% CI 4.6-8.5; p < 0.001), AA (AHR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.4-3.7; p = 0.001), or AM (AHR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.9; p = 0.028) compared with DP; and patients who did not clear their initial parasitaemia within 2 days (AHR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.3; p < 0.001). The analysis was limited by heterogeneity between study populations and lack of data from very low transmission settings. Study quality was high. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis, we found a high risk of P. vivax parasitaemia after treatment of P. falciparum malaria that varied significantly between studies. These P. vivax infections are likely attributable to relapses that could be prevented with radical cure including a hypnozoitocidal agent; however, the benefits of such a novel strategy will vary considerably between geographical areas. |
Sexual-risk and STI-testing behaviors of a national sample of non-students, two-year, and four-year college students
Renfro KJ , Haderxhanaj L , Coor A , Eastman-Mueller H , Oswalt S , Kachur R , Habel MA , Becasen JS , Dittus PJ . J Am Coll Health 2020 70 (2) 1-8 Objective: To determine whether sexual-risk and STI-testing behaviors differ by college student status.Participants: Sexually experienced 17- to 25-year-olds from a 2013 nationally representative panel survey that evaluated the "Get Yourself Tested" campaign. Non-students (n = 628), 2-yr (n = 319), and 4-yr college students (n = 587) were surveyed.Methods: Bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regression were used.Results: Students were less likely than non-students to have had an early sexual debut and to have not used condoms in their most recent relationship. 4-yr students were less likely than non-students to have had multiple sexual partners. 2-yr students were less likely than non-students to have not used contraception in their most recent relationship.Conclusions: 2-yr and 4-yr college students were less likely than non-students to engage in sexual-risk behaviors. Given potentially greater risk for STI acquisition among non-students, identification and implementation of strategies to increase sexual health education and services among this population is needed. |
Cytokine signatures of Plasmodium vivax infection during pregnancy and delivery outcomes.
Dobano C , Bardaji A , Arevalo-Herrera M , Martinez-Espinosa FE , Botto-Menezes C , Padilla N , Menegon M , Kochar S , Kochar SK , Unger H , Ome-Kaius M , Rosanas-Urgell A , Malheiros A , Castellanos ME , Hans D , Desai M , Casellas A , Chitnis CE , Severini C , Mueller I , Rogerson S , Menendez C , Requena P . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020 14 (5) e0008155 ![]() Plasmodium vivax malaria is a neglected disease, particularly during pregnancy. Severe vivax malaria is associated with inflammatory responses but in pregnancy immune alterations make it uncertain as to what cytokine signatures predominate, and how the type and quantity of blood immune mediators influence delivery outcomes. We measured the plasma concentrations of a set of thirty-one biomarkers, comprising cytokines, chemokines and growth factors, in 987 plasma samples from a cohort of 572 pregnant women from five malaria-endemic tropical countries and related these concentrations to delivery outcomes (birth weight and hemoglobin levels) and malaria infection. Samples were collected at recruitment (first antenatal visit) and at delivery (periphery, cord and placenta). At recruitment, we found that P. vivax-infected pregnant women had higher plasma concentrations of proinflammatory (IL-6, IL-1beta, CCL4, CCL2, CXCL10) and TH1-related cytokines (mainly IL-12) than uninfected women. This biomarker signature was essentially lost at delivery and was not associated with birth weight nor hemoglobin levels. Antiinflammatory cytokines (IL-10) were positively associated with infection and poor delivery outcomes. CCL11 was the only biomarker to show a negative association with P. vivax infection and its concentration at recruitment was positively associated with hemoglobin levels at delivery. Birth weight was negatively associated with peripheral IL-4 levels at delivery. Our multi-biomarker multicenter study is the first comprehensive one to characterize the immunological signature of P. vivax infection in pregnancy thus far. In conclusion, data show that while TH1 and pro-inflammatory responses are dominant during P. vivax infection in pregnancy, antiinflammatory cytokines may compensate excessive inflammation avoiding poor delivery outcomes, and skewness toward a TH2 response may trigger worse delivery outcomes. CCL11, a chemokine largely neglected in the field of malaria, emerges as an important marker of exposure or mediator in this condition. |
Implementing a learning collaborative framework for states working to improve outcomes for vulnerable populations: The Opioid Use Disorder, Maternal Outcomes, and Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome Initiative Learning Community
Kroelinger CD , Addison D , Rodriguez M , Rice ME , Frey MT , Hickner HR , Weber MK , Mueller T , Velonis A , Uesugi K , Romero L , Akbarali S , Foster N , Ko JY , Pliska E , Mackie C , Cox S , Fehrenbach SN , Barfield WD . J Womens Health (Larchmt) 2020 29 (4) 475-486 The opioid crisis has impacted vulnerable populations, specifically pregnant and postpartum women, and infants prenatally exposed to substances, including infants with Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome. Lack of access to clinical and social services; potential stigma or discrimination; and lack of resources for provision of services, including screening and treatment, have impacted the health of these populations. In 2018, using a systems change approach, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) convened an Opioid use disorder, Maternal outcomes, Neonatal abstinence syndrome Initiative Learning Community (OMNI LC) that included other federal agencies, national clinical and nonclinical organizations, and 12 state leadership groups. The purpose of the OMNI LC was to determine areas of focus and identify strategies and best practices for implementing systems change to improve maternal and infant outcomes associated with opioid use disorder (OUD) during the perinatal period. Activities included in-person convenings with policy goal action plan development, virtual learning sessions, intensive technical assistance (TA), and temporary field placements. The OMNI LC partnering agencies and state teams met bimonthly for the first year of the initiative. At the in-person convening, state teams identified barriers to developing and implementing systems change in activity-specific action plans within five areas of focus: financing and coverage; access to and coordination of quality services; provider training and awareness; ethical, legal, and social considerations; and data, monitoring, and evaluation. State teams also identified stakeholder partnerships as a necessary component of strategy development in all areas of focus. Four virtual learning sessions were conducted on the areas of focus identified by state teams, and ASTHO conducted three intensive TA opportunities, and five states were identified for temporary field placement. To successfully address the impact of the opioid crisis on pregnant and postpartum women and infants, states developed innovative strategies focused on increasing support, services, and resources. Moving forward, state teams will participate in two additional in-person meetings, continue to identify barriers to the work, refine and customize action plans, and set new goals, to effect broad-ranging systems change for these vulnerable populations. |
Towards rabies elimination in the Asia-Pacific region: From theory to practice
Rupprecht CE , Abela-Ridder B , Abila R , Amparo AC , Banyard A , Blanton J , Chanachai K , Dallmeier K , de Balogh K , Del Rio Vilas V , Ertl H , Freuling C , Hill R , Houillon G , Jakava-Viljanen M , Kasemsuwan S , Lechenet J , Nel L , Panichabhongse P , Rahman SA , Tantawichien T , Vandeputte J , Viriyabancha W , Vos A , Wallace R , Yale G , Yurachai O , Mueller T . Biologicals 2020 64 83-95 Rabies is a major neglected zoonotic disease and causes a substantial burden in the Asian region. Currently, Pacific Oceania is free of rabies but enzootic areas throughout southeast Asia represent a major risk of disease introduction to this region. On September 25-26, 2019, researchers, government officials and related stakeholders met at an IABS conference in Bangkok, Thailand to engage on the topic of human rabies mediated by dogs. The objective of the meeting was focused upon snowballing efforts towards achieving substantial progress in rabies prevention, control and elimination within Asia by 2030, and thereby to safeguard the Pacific region. Individual sessions focused upon domestic animal, wildlife and human vaccination; the production and evaluation of quality, safety and efficacy of existing rabies biologics; and the future development of new products. Participants reviewed the progress to date in eliminating canine rabies by mass vaccination, described supportive methods to parenteral administration by oral vaccine application, considered updated global and local approaches at human prophylaxis and discussed the considerable challenges ahead. Such opportunities provide continuous engagement on disease management among professionals at a trans-disciplinary level and promote new applied research collaborations in a modern One Health context. |
Serum elimination half-lives adjusted for ongoing exposure of tri-to hexabrominated diphenyl ethers: Determined in persons moving from North America to Australia.
Sjodin A , Mueller JF , Jones R , Schutze A , Wong LY , Caudill SP , Harden FA , Webster TF , Toms LM . Chemosphere 2020 248 125905 ![]() ![]() The objective of the study was to determine the human serum elimination half-life of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) adjusted for ongoing exposure in subjects moving from a higher exposure region (North America) to a lower exposure region (Australia). The study population was comprised of exchange students and long-term visitors from North America moving to Brisbane, Australia (N = 27) and local residents (N = 23) who were followed by repeated serum sampling every other month. The local residents were sampled to adjust for ongoing exposure in Australia. Only one visitor remained in Australia for a period of time similar to the elimination half-life and had a sufficiently high initial concentration of PBDEs to derive a half-life. This visitor arrived in Australia in March of 2011 and remained in the country for 1.5 years. Since the magnitude of PBDE exposure is lower in Australia than in North America we observed an apparent 1st order elimination curve over time from which we have estimated the serum elimination half-lives for BDE28, BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, and BDE153 to be 0.942, 1.19, 1.03, 2.16, and 4.12 years, respectively. Uncertainty in the estimates were estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation. The human serum elimination half-life adjusted for ongoing exposure can allow us to assess the effectiveness and reduction in exposure in the general population following phase out of commercial penta- and octaBDE in 2004 in the United States. |
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