Introduction Despite a growing body of scholarly research on the risks of severe COVID-19 associated with diabetes, hypertension and obesity, there is a need for estimating pooled risk estimates with adjustment for confounding effects. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the pooled adjusted risk ratios of diabetes, hypertension and obesity on COVID-19 mortality.Methods We searched 16 literature databases for original studies published between 1 December 2019 and 31 December 2020. We used the adapted Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. Pooled risk ratios were estimated based on the adjusted effect sizes. We applied random-effects meta-analysis to account for the uncertainty in residual heterogeneity. We used contour-funnel plots and Egger’s test to assess possible publication bias.Results We reviewed 34 830 records identified in literature search, of which 145 original studies were included in the meta-analysis. Pooled adjusted risk ratios were 1.43 (95% CI 1.32 to 1.54), 1.19 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.30) and 1.39 (95% CI 1.27 to 1.52) for diabetes, hypertension and obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) on COVID-19 mortality, respectively. The pooled adjusted risk ratios appeared to be stronger in studies conducted before April 2020, Western Pacific Region, low- and middle-income countries, and countries with low Global Health Security Index scores, when compared with their counterparts.Conclusions Diabetes, hypertension and obesity were associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality independent of other known risk factors, particularly in low-resource settings. Addressing these chronic diseases could be important for global pandemic preparedness and mortality prevention.PROSPERO registration number CRD42021204371.Data are available in a public, open access repository. Not applicable.

OBJECTIVES: Studies on excess deaths (ED) show that reported deaths from COVID-19 underestimate death. To understand mortality for improved pandemic preparedness, we estimated ED directly and indirectly attributable to COVID-19 and ED by age groups. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using routinely reported individual deaths data. SETTINGS: The 21 health facilities in Bishkek that register all city deaths. PARTICIPANTS: Residents of Bishkek who died in the city from 2015 to 2020. OUTCOME MEASURE: We report weekly and cumulative ED by age, sex and causes of death for 2020. EDs are the difference between observed and expected deaths. Expected deaths were calculated using the historical average and the upper bound of the 95% CI from 2015 to 2019. We calculated the percentage of deaths above expected using the upper bound of the 95% CI of expected deaths. COVID-19 deaths were laboratory confirmed (U07.1) or probable (U07.2 or unspecified pneumonia). RESULTS: Of 4660 deaths in 2020, we estimated 840-1042 ED (79-98 ED per 100 000 people). Deaths were 22% greater than expected. EDs were greater for men (28%) than for women (20%). EDs were observed in all age groups, with the highest ED (43%) among people 65-74 years of age. Hospital deaths were 45% higher than expected. During peak mortality (1 July -21 July), weekly ED was 267% above expected, and ED by disease-specific cause of death were above expected: 193% for ischaemic heart diseases, 52% for cerebrovascular diseases and 421% for lower respiratory diseases. COVID-19 was directly attributable to 69% of ED. CONCLUSION: Deaths directly and indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic were markedly higher than reported, especially for older populations, in hospital settings, and during peak weeks of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. These ED estimates can support efforts to prioritise support for persons at greatest risk of dying during surges.

Early warning and response surveillance (EWARS) systems were widely used during the early COVID-19 response. Evaluating the effectiveness of EWARS systems is critical to ensuring global health security. We describe the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) global COVID-19 EWARS (CDC EWARS) system and the resources CDC used to gather, manage, and analyze publicly available data during the prepandemic period. We evaluated data quality and validity by measuring reporting completeness and compared these with data from Johns Hopkins University, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and indicator-based data from the World Health Organization. CDC EWARS was integral in guiding CDC's early COVID-19 response but was labor-intensive and became less informative as case-level data decreased and the pandemic evolved. However, CDC EWARS data were similar to those reported by other organizations, confirming the validity of each system and suggesting collaboration could improve EWARS systems during future pandemics.

INTRODUCTION: Previous evidence from several countries, including China, Italy, Mexico, UK and the USA, indicates that among patients with confirmed COVID-19 who were hospitalised, diabetes, obesity and hypertension might be important risk factors for severe clinical outcomes. Several preliminary systematic reviews and meta-analyses have been conducted on one or more of these non-communicable diseases, but the findings have not been definitive, and recent evidence has become available from many more populations. Thus, we aim to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies to assess the relationship of diabetes, obesity and hypertension with severe clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. METHOD AND ANALYSIS: We will search 16 major databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CAB Abstracts, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Academic Research Complete, Africa Wide Information, Scopus, PubMed Central, ProQuest Central, WHO Virtual Health Library, Homeland Security COVID-19 collection, SciFinder, Clinical Trials and Cochrane Library) for articles published between December 2019 and December 2020. We will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols 2016 guidelines for the design and reporting the results. We will include observational studies that assess the associations of pre-existing diabetes, obesity and hypertension in patients with COVID-19 with risk of severe clinical outcomes such as intensive care unit admission, receiving mechanical ventilation or death. Stata V.16.1 and R-Studio V.1.4.1103 statistical software will be used for statistical analysis. Meta-analysis will be used to estimate the pooled risks and to assess potential heterogeneities in risks. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was reviewed for human subjects concerns by the US CDC Center for Global Health and determined to not represent human subjects research because it uses data from published studies. We plan to publish results in a peer-reviewed journal and present at national and international conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021204371.

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the effect of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) on infectious disease outcomes. This effect can be observed at both the individual and the population level. At the individual level, the presence of preexisting chronic conditions increases a patient’s risk of severe COVID-19 disease (1). At the population level, the aggregate prevalence of chronic conditions could compound the pandemic’s overall burden on health systems and the economy (2).

Noncommunicable diseases and their risk factors are important for all aspects of outbreak preparedness and response, affecting a range of factors including host susceptibility, pathogen virulence, and health system capacity. This conceptual analysis has 2 objectives. First, we use the Haddon matrix paradigm to formulate a framework for assessing the relevance of noncommunicable diseases to health security efforts throughout all phases of the disaster life cycle: before, during, and after an event. Second, we build upon this framework to identify 6 technical action areas in global health security programs that are opportune integration points for global health security and noncommunicable disease objectives: surveillance, workforce development, laboratory systems, immunization, risk communication, and sustainable financing. We discuss approaches to integration with the goal of maximizing the reach of global health security where infectious disease threats and chronic disease burdens overlap.

If you want to travel fast, go alone; if you want to travel far, go together. | | —African Proverb | | The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Strategic Framework articulates 3 agency priorities: secure global health and America's preparedness, eliminate disease, and end epidemics.1 After 5 years of implementing the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA),2-5 we have learned many lessons. While more work remains in global health security, documenting lessons learned is imperative to provide the evidence base for the next steps in global health security implementation. The theme of this Supplement to Health Security is: “what works—lessons learned in global health security implementation.” The information shared in this compilation is intended to add value to the efforts of everyone interested and engaged in health security.

During the fall of 1999, an outbreak with 16 cases (11 confirmed and five probable) of Escherichia coli O157:H7 infections was identified in Oklahoma. Nine persons (82%) experienced bloody diarrhea, six (54%) required hospitalization, and three (27%) developed hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). Twelve of the sixteen (75%) cases were children from 2 to 13 years old. All nine available E. coli O157:H7 isolates had an identical pulsed-field gel electrophoresis pattern. Ten of the 11 confirmed patients and none of the 24 control subjects had drunk unpasteurized apple cider from Orchard A (matched odds ratio undefined; P0.00001). All environmental specimen cultures were negative. Orchard A was in compliance with U.S. Food and Drug Administration requirements for product warning labels on unpasteurized products, although only one of eight patients (or surrogates) interviewed recalled having read the label. This outbreak raises questions about whether the current practice of requiring warning labels for unpasteurized cider provides sufficient protection for vulnerable populations, especially children.