INTRODUCTION: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of heterosexual acquisition of HIV by 50%-60%. The Uganda Ministry of Health recommends abstinence of sex for 42 days after VMMC to allow complete wound healing. However, some men resume sex early before the recommended period. We estimated trends in prevalence and risk factors of early sex resumption (ESR) among VMMC clients in Rakai, Uganda, from 2013-2020. METHODS: Data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), a cross-sectional study, were analyzed. Data included consenting males aged 15-49 years in RCCS who self-reported having received VMMC between the period of 2013 to 2020. ESR prevalence and associated risk factors were assessed using modified Poisson regression to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR). RESULTS: Overall, 1,832 participants were included in this study. ESR decreased from 45.1% in 2013 to 14.9% in 2020 (p<0.001). Across the first three surveys, ESR prevalence was consistently higher among the married participants than the never married participants, aPR = 1.83, 95% CI: [1.30,2.57]; aPR = 2.46, 95% CI: [1.50,4.06]; aPR = 2.22, 95% CI: [1.22,4.03]. ESR prevalence was higher among participants who reported to have more than one sexual partner than participants with one partner, aPR = 1.59, 95% CI: [1.16,2.20]. In the fourth survey from 2018-2020, ESR prevalence was significantly higher among participants with primary education than participants with post-primary, aPR = 2.38, 95% CI: [1.31, 4.30]. However, ESR prevalence was lower among participants aged at least 45 years than participants aged 15-19 years, aPR = 0.0, 95% CI: [1.86e-07, 2.69e-06]. Overall, participants who reported primary school as their highest level of education reported ESR more often than those with post-primary education aPR = 2.38, 95% CI: [1.31, 4.30]. Occupation and known HIV status were not associated with ESR. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported ESR after VMMC declined between 2013 and 2020. Targeted efforts for counseling focusing on married men, men who had multiple sex partners, and men with lower levels of education may decrease ESR.

Certain occupations have been associated with heightened risk of HIV acquisition and spread in sub-Saharan Africa, including female bar and restaurant work and male transportation work. However, data on changes in population prevalence of HIV infection and HIV incidence within occupations following mass scale-up of African HIV treatment and prevention programs is very limited. We evaluated prospective data collected between 1999 and 2016 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a longitudinal population-based study of 15- to 49-year-old persons in Uganda. Adjusted prevalence risk ratios for overall, treated, and untreated, prevalent HIV infection, and incidence rate ratios for HIV incidence with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson regression to assess changes in HIV outcomes by occupation. Analyses were stratified by gender. There were 33,866 participants, including 19,113 (56%) women. Overall, HIV seroprevalence declined in most occupational subgroups among men, but increased or remained mostly stable among women. In contrast, prevalence of untreated HIV substantially declined between 1999 and 2016 in most occupations, irrespective of gender, including by 70% among men (12.3 to 4.2%; adjPRR = 0.30; 95%CI:0.23-0.41) and by 78% among women (14.7 to 4.0%; adjPRR = 0.22; 95%CI:0.18-0.27) working in agriculture, the most common self-reported primary occupation. Exceptions included men working in transportation. HIV incidence similarly declined in most occupations, but there were no reductions in incidence among female bar and restaurant workers, women working in local crafts, or men working in transportation. In summary, untreated HIV infection and HIV incidence have declined within most occupational groups in Uganda. However, women working in bars/restaurants and local crafts and men working in transportation continue to have a relatively high burden of untreated HIV and HIV incidence, and as such, should be considered priority populations for HIV programming.

INTRODUCTION: Population-level data on durable HIV viral load suppression (VLS) following the implementation of Universal Test and Treat (UTT) in Africa are limited. We assessed trends in durable VLS and viraemia among persons living with HIV in 40 Ugandan communities during the UTT scale-up. METHODS: In 2015-2020, we measured VLS (<200 RNA copies/ml) among participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort in southern Uganda. Persons with unsuppressed viral loads were characterized as having low-level (200-999 copies/ml) or high-level (≥1000 copies/ml) viraemia. Individual virologic outcomes were assessed over two consecutive RCCS survey visits (i.e. visit-pairs; ∼18-month visit intervals) and classified as durable VLS (<200 copies/ml at both visits), new/renewed VLS (<200 copies/ml at follow-up only), viral rebound (<200 copies/ml at initial visit only) or persistent viraemia (≥200 copies/ml at both visits). Population prevalence of each outcome was assessed over calendar time. Community-level prevalence and individual-level predictors of persistent high-level viraemia were also assessed using multivariable Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Overall, 3080 participants contributed 4604 visit-pairs over three survey rounds. Most visit-pairs (72.4%) exhibited durable VLS, with few (2.5%) experiencing viral rebound. Among those with any viraemia at the initial visit (23.5%, n = 1083), 46.9% remained viraemic through follow-up, 91.3% of which was high-level viraemia. One-fifth (20.8%) of visit-pairs exhibiting persistent high-level viraemia self-reported antiretroviral therapy (ART) use for ≥12 months. Prevalence of persistent high-level viraemia varied substantially across communities and was significantly elevated among young persons aged 15-29 years (vs. 40- to 49-year-olds; adjusted risk ratio [adjRR] = 2.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 2.21-3.96), males (vs. females; adjRR = 2.40, 95% CI: 1.87-3.07), persons reporting inconsistent condom use with non-marital/casual partners (vs. persons with marital/permanent partners only; adjRR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.10-1.74) and persons reporting hazardous alcohol use (adjRR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03-1.16). The prevalence of persistent high-level viraemia was highest among males <30 years (32.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Following universal ART provision, most persons living with HIV in south-central Uganda are durably suppressed. Among persons exhibiting any viraemia, nearly half exhibited high-level viraemia for ≥12 months and reported higher-risk behaviours associated with onward HIV transmission. Intensified efforts linking individuals to HIV treatment services could accelerate momentum towards HIV epidemic control.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

In a population-based representative sample of adults residing in 22 communities in Botswana, a southern African country with high HIV prevalence, 1 in 4 individuals had high blood pressure. High blood pressure was less prevalent in adults with HIV than without HIV. Sixty percent of persons with high blood pressure had not previously been diagnosed. Among individuals with a prior diagnosis of high blood pressure who reported being prescribed anti-hypertension medications, almost half had elevated blood pressure, irrespective of HIV-status. One-third of adults in this setting (mainly men) declined free non-invasive blood pressure assessments in their households. In conclusion, our study highlights alarmingly high hypertension rates in the community, with low levels of awareness and control, emphasizing the urgent need for community level BP screening and active management to reach recommended targets.

Introduction: Population-level data on durable HIV viral load suppression (VLS) following implementation of Universal Test and Treat (UTT) in Africa are limited. We assessed trends in durable VLS and viremia among persons living with HIV in 40 Ugandan communities during UTT scale-up. Method(s): In 2015-2020, we measured VLS (defined as <200 RNA copies/mL) among participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort in southern Uganda. Persons with unsuppressed viral loads were characterized as having low-level (200-999 copies/mL) or high-level (>1,000 copies/mL) viremia. Individual virologic outcomes were assessed over two consecutive RCCS survey visits (i.e., visit-pairs; ~18 month visit intervals) and classified as durable VLS (<200 copies/mL at both visits), new/renewed VLS (<200 copies/mL at follow-up only), viral rebound (<200 copies/mL at initial visit only), or persistent viremia (<200 copies/mL at neither visit). Population prevalence of each outcome was assessed over calendar time. Community-level prevalence and individual-level predictors of persistent high-level viremia were also assessed using multivariable Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations. Result(s): Overall, 3,080 participants contributed 4,604 visit-pairs over three survey rounds. Most visit-pairs (72.4%) exhibited durable VLS, with few (2.5%) experiencing viral rebound. Among those with viremia at the initial visit (n=1,083), 46.9% maintained viremia through follow-up, 91.3% of which was high-level viremia. One-fifth (20.8%) of visit-pairs exhibiting persistent high-level viremia self-reported antiretroviral therapy (ART) use for >12 months. Prevalence of persistent high-level viremia varied substantially across communities and was significantly elevated among young persons aged 15-29 years (versus 40-49-year-olds; adjusted risk ratio [adjRR]=2.96; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]:2.21-3.96), men (versus women; adjRR=2.40, 95%CI:1.87-3.07), persons reporting inconsistent condom use with non-marital/casual partners (versus persons with marital/permanent partners only; adjRR=1.38, 95%CI:1.10-1.74), and persons exhibiting hazardous alcohol use (adjRR=1.09, 95%CI:1.03-1.16). The prevalence of persistent high-level viremia was highest among men <30 years (32.0%). Conclusion(s): Following universal ART provision, most persons living with HIV in south-central Uganda are durably suppressed. Among persons exhibiting viremia, nearly half maintain high-level viremia for >12 months and report higher-risk behaviors associated with onward HIV transmission. Enhanced linkage to HIV care and optimized treatment retention could accelerate momentum towards HIV epidemic control. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years, but as new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and the population groups driving transmission have evolved over a 15 year period from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, resulting in 1.5-2 fold higher suppression rates in women with HIV by 2018 across age groups. Incidence declined more slowly in women than men, increasing pre-existing gender imbalance in HIV burden. Age-specific transmission flows shifted; the share of transmission to girls and women aged 15-24 years from older men declined by approximately one third, whereas the contribution of transmission to women aged 25-34 years from men aged 0-6 years older doubled from 2003 to 2018. We estimated closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018 and ended gender disparities in incidence. This study suggests that male-targeted HIV programs to increase HIV suppression are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.

Introduction: Certain occupations have been associated with heightened risk of HIV acquisition and spread in sub-Saharan Africa, including bar work and transportation. However, data on changes in prevalence of untreated HIV infection and HIV incidence within occupations following rollout of antiretroviral therapy and voluntary medical male circumcision programs in 2004 are limited. Method(s): We evaluated 12 rounds of survey data collected between 1999-2016, from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a population-based study of adolescents and adults 15-49 years in Uganda, to assess changes in the prevalence of untreated HIV infection and incidence by self-reported primary occupation. Adjusted prevalence risk ratios (adjPRR) for untreated HIV and incidence rate ratios for HIV incidence with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Poisson regression. Primary outcomes were stratified by gender and HIV incidence compared over three time periods (1999-2004; 2005-2011; 2011-2016) representing, respectively, the period prior to scale up of combined HIV prevention and treatment, the scale up period, and full implementation. Result(s): 33,866 individuals, including 19,113 (56%) women participated. Of these participants, 17,840 women and 14,244 men who were HIV-negative at their first study visit contributed 57,912 and 49,403 person-years of follow-up, respectively. Agriculture was the most common occupation at all study visits, though its prevalence declined from 39 to 29% among men and from 61 to 40% among women between 1999 and 2016. Untreated HIV infection substantially declined between 1999 and 2016 across most occupational subgroups, including by 70% among men (12 to 4.2%; adjPRR=0.30; 95%CI:0.23-0.41) and by 78% among women working in agriculture (14.7 to 4.0%; adjPRR=0.22; 95%CI:0.18-0.27), along with increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage. Exceptions included men working in transportation and women working in tailoring/laundry services. HIV incidence declined in most occupations, but there were no reductions in incidence among female bar and restaurant workers or men working in transportation. Conclusion(s): Untreated HIV infection and HIV incidence have declined in most occupational sub-groups in Rakai, Uganda. However, women working in bars and restaurants and men working in transportation continue to have relatively high burden of untreated HIV and HIV incidence, and as such should be considered key priority populations for targeted HIV programming. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Universal HIV testing and treatment (UTT) strategies aim to optimize population-level benefits of antiretroviral treatment. Between 2012 and 2018, four large community randomized trials were conducted in eastern and southern Africa. While their results were broadly consistent showing decreased population-level viremia reduces HIV incidence, it remains unclear how much HIV incidence can be reduced by increasing suppression among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We conducted a pooled analysis across the four UTT trials. Leveraging data from 105 communities in five countries, we evaluated the linear relationship between i) population-level viremia (prevalence of non-suppression-defined as plasma HIV RNA >500 or >400 copies/mL-among all adults, irrespective of HIV status) and HIV incidence; and ii) prevalence of non-suppression among PLHIV and HIV incidence, using parametric g-computation. HIV prevalence, measured in 257 929 persons, varied from 2 to 41% across the communities; prevalence of non-suppression among PLHIV, measured in 31 377 persons, from 3 to 70%; population-level viremia, derived from HIV prevalence and non-suppression, from < 1% to 25%; and HIV incidence, measured over 345 844 person-years (PY), from 0.03/100PY to 3.46/100PY. Decreases in population-level viremia were strongly associated with decreased HIV incidence in all trials (between 0.45/100PY and 1.88/100PY decline in HIV incidence per 10 percentage points decline in viremia). Decreases in non-suppression among PLHIV were also associated with decreased HIV incidence in all trials (between 0.06/100PY and 0.17/100PY decline in HIV incidence per 10 percentage points decline in non-suppression). Our results support both the utility of population-level viremia as a predictor of incidence, and thus a tool for targeting prevention interventions, and the ability of UTT approaches to reduce HIV incidence by increasing viral suppression. Implementation of universal HIV testing approaches, coupled with interventions to leverage linkage to treatment, adapted to local contexts, can reduce HIV acquisition at population level.

During October 2016-March 2022, Uganda increased tuberculosis (TB) preventive therapy coverage among persons living with HIV from 0.6% to 88.8%. TB notification rates increased from 881.1 to 972.5 per 100,000 persons living with HIV. Timely TB screening, diagnosis, and earlier treatment should remain high priorities for TB/HIV prevention programming.

Despite implementing measures to prevent introduction of COVID-19 in prisons, a COVID-19 outbreak occurred at Moroto Prison, northern Uganda in September 2020. We investigated factors associated with the introduction and spread of COVID-19 in the prison. A case was PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in a prisoner/staff at Moroto Prison during August-September 2020. We reviewed prison medical records to identify case-patients and interviewed prison and hospital staff to understand possible infection mechanisms for the index case-patient and opportunities for spread. In a retrospective cohort study, we interviewed all prisoners and available staff to identify risk factors. Data were analyzed using log-binomial regression. On September 1, 2020, a recently-hospitalized prisoner with unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 infection was admitted to Moroto Prison quarantine. He had become infected while sharing a hospital ward with a subsequently-diagnosed COVID-19 patient. A sample taken from the hospitalized prisoner on August 20 tested positive on September 3. Mass reactive testing at the prison on September 6, 14, and 15 revealed infection among 202/692 prisoners and 8/90 staff (overall attack rate=27%). One prison staff and one prisoner who cared for the sick prisoner while at the hospital re-entered the main prison without quarantining. Both tested positive on September 6. Food and cleaning service providers also regularly transited between quarantine and unrestricted prison areas. Using facemasks >50% of the time (adjusted risk ratio [aRR]=0.26; 95%CI: 0.13-0.54), or in combination with handwashing after touching surfaces (aRR=0.25; 95%CI: 0.14-0.46) were protective. Prisoners recently transferred from other facilities to Moroto Prison had an increased risk of infection (aRR=1.50; 95%CI: 1.02-2.22). COVID-19 was likely introduced into Moroto Prison quarantine by a prisoner with hospital-acquired infection and delayed test results, and/or by caretakers who were not quarantined after hospital exposures. The outbreak may have amplified via shared food/cleaning service providers who transited between quarantined and non-quarantined prisoners. Facemasks and handwashing were protective. Reduced test turnaround time for the hospitalized prisoner could have averted this outbreak. Testing incoming prisoners for SARS-CoV-2 before quarantine, providing unrestricted soap/water for handwashing, and universal facemask use in prisons could mitigate risk of future outbreaks. © Richard Migisha et al.

INTRODUCTION: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) uptake has been slow in some countries, including Botswana. To inform demand creation efforts, we examined sociodemographic characteristics and referral procedures associated with VMMC uptake in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) and examined the effectiveness of referral of men to MC services from HIV testing venues. DESIGN: BCPP was a community-randomized trial evaluating the impact of a combination HIV prevention package which included VMMC on community HIV incidence. We conducted a sub-analysis of VMMC uptake in intervention communities. METHODS: During the initial VMMC campaign in 15 intervention communities, baseline male circumcision (MC) status was assessed among men eligible for HIV testing. Uncircumcised male community residents aged 16-49 years with negative/unknown HIV status were mobilized and linked to study VMMC services. Outcomes included MC baseline status and uptake through study services. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify factors associated with MC uptake. RESULTS: Of 12,864 men eligible for testing, 50% (n = 6,448) were already circumcised. Among the uncircumcised men (n = 6,416), 10% (n = 635) underwent MC. Of the 5,071 men identified as eligible for MC through HIV testing services, 78% declined referral and less than 1% of those were circumcised. Of those accepting referral (n = 1,107), 16% were circumcised. Younger (16-24 years) (aOR: 1.51; 95%CI:1.22,1.85), unemployed men (aOR:1.34; 95%CI: 1.06,1.69), and those undergoing HIV testing at mobile venues (aOR: 1.88; 95%CI: 1.53,2.31) were more likely to get circumcised. Fear of pain was the most prevalent (27%) reason given for not being circumcised. CONCLUSION: Younger, unemployed men seeking HIV testing at mobile sites in Botswana were more likely to get VMMC. Addressing unique barriers for employed and older men may be necessary. Given the simplicity of VMMC as an intervention, the HIV testing programs offer a platform for identifying uncircumcised men and offering information and encouragement to access services.

Despite remarkable progress in controlling HIV and TB, Uganda is one of the 30 high-burden TB/HIV countries. Approximately 53,000 Ugandans had a new HIV diagnosis in 2019, and approximately 88,000 Ugandans had a TB diagnosis in 2020. Fellows in the Uganda Public Health Fellowship Program (UPHFP) work directly with the Ministry of Health AIDS and TB Control Programs, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UPHFP supervisors, and implementing partners to investigate and evaluate HIV-related and TB-related issues. These activities have contributed to the Uganda HIV and TB programs. UPHFP fellows complete projects in 7 competency domains, including outbreak investigations, surveillance evaluations, and data quality improvement. Priority HIV/AIDS/TB information gaps/topics are identified in consultation with key stakeholders, and fellows complete projects to guide program improvements and policy decisions. During 2015-2020, UPHFP fellows implemented 127 HIV and TB projects covering key program areas in AIDS and TB control programs, including care and treatment (16 projects), TB/HIV (18), prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (24), key and priority populations (9), pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis (7), adolescent girls and young women (6), service delivery (13), and diagnosis of TB including drug-resistant TB and TB in high-risk groups (32). These projects have helped improve retention, quality of care, and treatment outcomes for people living with HIV, HIV and TB coinfected patients, and TB patients. They have also contributed to the decrease in pediatric TB and infant HIV positivity rates and improved service delivery for key populations. UPHFP results were disseminated to relevant stakeholders such as government departments, implementing partners, districts, and the general community and guided decision making. UPHFP has significantly improved HIV and TB control in Uganda. Other countries with similar programs could benefit from this approach and utilize program fellows to support HIV and TB control.

BACKGROUND: Increasing HIV treatment coverage is crucial to reducing population-level HIV incidence. METHODS: The Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) was a community randomized trial examining the impact of multiple prevention interventions on population-level HIV incidence and was conducted from October 2013 through June 2017. Home and mobile campaigns offered HIV testing to all individuals ≥ age 16. All identified HIV-positive persons who were not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) were referred to treatment and tracked to determine linkage to care, ART status, retention in treatment, and viral suppression. RESULTS: Of an estimated total of 14,270 people living with HIV (PLHIV) residing in the 15 intervention communities, BCPP identified 13,328 HIV-positive persons (93%). At study start, 10,703 (80%) of estimated PLHIV knew their status; 2,625 (20%) learned their status during BCPP, a 25% increase with the greatest increases occurring among men (37%) and youth (77%). At study start, 9,258 (65%) of estimated PLHIV were on ART. An additional 3,001 persons started ART through the study. By study end, 12,259 had initiated and were retained on ART, increasing coverage to 93%. A greater increase in ART coverage was achieved among men (40%) compared to women (29%). Of the 11,954 persons who had viral load (VL) test results, 11,687 (98%) were virally suppressed (HIV-1 RNA ≤400 copies/mL). Overall, 82% had documented VL suppression by study end. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of HIV-positive status and ART coverage increased towards 95-95 targets with universal testing, linkage interventions, and ART. The increases in HIV testing and ART use among men and youth were essential to reaching these targets. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT01965470.

BACKGROUND: Phylogenetic analysis can be used to assess human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in populations. We inferred the direction of HIV transmission using whole-genome HIV sequences from couples with known linked infection and known transmission direction. METHODS: Complete next-generation sequencing (NGS) data were obtained for 105 unique index-partner sample pairs from 32 couples enrolled in the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 study (up to 2 samples/person). Index samples were obtained up to 5.5 years before partner infection; partner samples were obtained near the time of seroconversion. The bioinformatics method, phyloscanner, was used to infer transmission direction. Analyses were performed using samples from individual sample pairs, samples from all couples (1 sample/person; group analysis), and all available samples (multisample group analysis). Analysis was also performed using NGS data from defined regions of the HIV genome (gag, pol, env). RESULTS: Using whole-genome NGS data, transmission direction was inferred correctly (index to partner) for 98 of 105 (93.3%) of the individual sample pairs, 99 of 105 (94.3%) sample pairs using group analysis, and 31 of the 32 couples (96.9%) using multisample group analysis. There were no cases where the incorrect transmission direction (partner to index) was inferred. The accuracy of the method was higher with greater time between index and partner sample collection. Pol region sequences performed better than env or gag sequences for inferring transmission direction. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the potential of a phylogenetic method to infer the direction of HIV transmission between 2 individuals using whole-genome and pol NGS data.

OBJECTIVE(S): To determine the proportion of individuals linking to HIV-care with advanced HIV-disease (CD4 ≤200 cells/μL) in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, describe the characteristics of these individuals, and examine treatment outcomes. DESIGN: A sub-analysis of a cluster-randomized HIV-prevention trial. HIV status was assessed in 16-64-year-olds through home and mobile testing. All HIV-positive persons not on antiretroviral-therapy (ART) were referred to local Ministry of Health and Wellness clinics for treatment. METHODS: Analysis was restricted to the 15 intervention clusters. The proportion of individuals with advanced HIV disease was determined; associations between advanced HIV disease and sex and age explored; and rates of viral suppression determined at 1-year. Mortality and retention in care were compared between CD4 strata (CD4 ≤200 cells/μL vs. > 200 cells/μL). RESULTS: Overall, 17.2% (430/2,499; 95% confidence interval [CI] 15.7-18.8%) of study participants had advanced HIV disease (CD4 ≤200 cells/μL) at time of clinic linkage. Men were significantly more likely to present with CD4 ≤200 cells/μL than women (23.7% versus 13.4%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.9, 95% CI 1.5-2.3). The risk of advanced HIV disease increased with increasing age (aOR 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-3.2 > 35 years versus < 25 years). Patients with CD4 ≤200 cells/μL had significantly higher rates of attrition from care during follow-up (hazards ratio 1.47, 95% CI 1.1-2.1). CONCLUSIONS: Advanced HIV disease due to late presentation to or disengagement from ART care remains common in the Treat All era in Botswana, calling for innovative testing, linkage, and treatment strategies to engage and retain harder-to-reach populations in care.

BACKGROUND: In settings with high HIV prevalence and treatment coverage, such as Botswana, it is unknown whether uptake of HIV prevention and treatment interventions can be increased further. We sought to determine whether a community-based intervention to identify and rapidly treat people living with HIV, and support male circumcision could increase population levels of HIV diagnosis, treatment, viral suppression, and male circumcision in Botswana. METHODS: The Ya Tsie Botswana Combination Prevention Project study was a pair-matched cluster-randomised trial done in 30 communities across Botswana done from Oct 30, 2013, to June 30, 2018. 15 communities were randomly assigned to receive HIV prevention and treatment interventions, including enhanced HIV testing, earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART), and strengthened male circumcision services, and 15 received standard of care. The first primary endpoint of HIV incidence has already been reported. In this Article, we report findings for the second primary endpoint of population uptake of HIV prevention services, as measured by proportion of people known to be HIV-positive or tested HIV-negative in the preceding 12 months; proportion of people living with HIV diagnosed and on ART; proportion of people living with HIV on ART with viral suppression; and proportion of HIV-negative men circumcised. A longitudinal cohort of residents aged 16-64 years from a random, approximately 20% sample of households across the 15 communities was enrolled to assess baseline uptake of study outcomes; we also administered an end-of-study survey to all residents not previously enrolled in the longitudinal cohort to provide study end coverage estimates. Differences in intervention uptake over time by randomisation group were tested via paired Student's t test. The study has been completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01965470). FINDINGS: In the six communities participating in the end-of-study survey, 2625 residents (n=1304 from standard-of-care communities, n=1321 from intervention communities) were enrolled into the 20% longitudinal cohort at baseline from Oct 30, 2013, to Nov 24, 2015. In the same communities, 10 791 (86%) of 12 489 eligible enumerated residents not previously enrolled in the longitudinal cohort participated in the end-of-study survey from March 30, 2017, to Feb 25, 2018 (5896 in intervention and 4895 in standard-of-care communities). At study end, in intervention communities, 1228 people living with HIV (91% of 1353) were on ART; 1166 people living with HIV (88% of 1321 with available viral load) were virally suppressed, and 673 HIV-negative men (40% of 1673) were circumcised in intervention communities. After accounting for baseline differences, at study end the proportion of people living with HIV who were diagnosed was significantly higher in intervention communities (absolute increase of 9% to 93%) compared with standard-of-care communities (absolute increase of 2% to 88%; prevalence ratio [PR] 1.08 [95% CI 1.02-1.14], p=0.032). Population levels of ART, viral suppression, and male circumcision increased from baseline in both groups, with greater increases in intervention communities (ART PR 1.12 [95% CI 1.07-1.17], p=0.018; viral suppression 1.13 [1.09-1.17], p=0.017; male circumcision 1.26 [1.17-1.35], p=0.029). INTERPRETATION: It is possible to achieve very high population levels of HIV testing and treatment in a high-prevalence setting. Maintaining these coverage levels over the next decade could substantially reduce HIV transmission and potentially eliminate the epidemic in these areas. FUNDING: US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

BACKGROUND: Targeting combination HIV interventions to locations and populations with high HIV burden is a global priority, but the impact of these strategies on HIV incidence is unclear. We assessed the impact of combination HIV interventions on HIV incidence in four HIV-hyperendemic communities in Uganda. METHODS: We did an open population-based cohort study of people aged 15-49 years residing in four fishing communities on Lake Victoria. The communities were surveyed five times to collect self-reported demographic, behavioural, and service-uptake data. Free HIV testing was provided at each interview, with referral to combination HIV intervention services as appropriate. From November, 2011, combination HIV intervention services were rapidly expanded in these geographical areas. We evaluated trends in HIV testing coverage among all participants, circumcision coverage among male participants, antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and HIV viral load among HIV-positive participants, and sexual behaviours and HIV incidence among HIV-negative participants. FINDINGS: From Nov 4, 2011, to Aug 16, 2017, data were collected from five surveys. Overall, 8942 participants contributed 20 721 person-visits; 4619 (52%) of 8942 participants were male. HIV prevalence was 41% (1598 of 3870) in the 2011-12 baseline survey and declined to 37% (1740 of 4738) at the final survey (p<0.0001). 3222 participants who were HIV-negative at baseline, and who had at least one repeat visit, contributed 9477 person-years of follow-up, and 230 incident HIV infections occurred. From the first survey in 2011-12 to the last survey in 2016-17, HIV testing coverage increased from 68% (2613 of 3870) to 96% (4526 of 4738; p<0.0001); male circumcision coverage increased from 35% (698 of 2011) to 65% (1630 of 2525; p<0.0001); ART coverage increased from 16% (254 of 1598) to 82% (1420 of 1740; p<0.0001); and population HIV viral load suppression in all HIV-positive participants increased from 34% (546 of 1596) to 80% (1383 of 1734; p<0.0001). Risky sexual behaviours did not decrease over this period. HIV incidence decreased from 3.43 per 100 person-years (95% CI 2.45-4.67) in 2011-12 to 1.59 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.19-2.07) in 2016-17; adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.52 (95% CI 0.34-0.79). Declines in HIV incidence were similar among men (adjusted IRR 0.53, 95% CI 0.30-0.93) and women (0.51, 0.27-0.96). The risk of incident HIV infection was lower in circumcised men than in uncircumcised men (0.46, 0.32-0.67). INTERPRETATION: Rapid expansion of combination HIV interventions in HIV-hyperendemic fishing communities is feasible and could have a substantial impact on HIV incidence. However, incidence remains higher than HIV epidemic control targets, and additional efforts will be needed to achieve this global health priority. FUNDING: The National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, the National Cancer Institute, the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Division of Intramural Research, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Uganda, Karolinska Institutet, and the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research.

INTRODUCTION: Non-citizens often face barriers to HIV care and treatment. Quantifying knowledge of positive HIV status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among non-citizens in a high HIV-prevalence country like Botswana that is close to achieving UNAIDS "90-90-90" targets may expose important gaps in achieving universal HIV testing and treatment. METHODS: The Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) is a pair-matched cluster-randomized trial evaluating the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in 30 rural or peri-urban communities. Community case finding and HIV testing were conducted in home and mobile venues in 15 intervention communities from October 2013-September 2017. In this secondary analysis, we compared HIV positivity, knowledge of positive HIV-status, and ART status among all citizens and non-citizens assessed at intake in the intervention communities. RESULTS: HIV status was assessed in 57,556 residents in the intervention communities; 4% (n = 2,463) were non-citizens. Five communities accounted for 81% of the total non-citizens assessed. A lower proportion of non-citizens were HIV-positive (15%; n = 369) compared to citizens (21%; n = 11,416) [p = 0.026]; however, a larger proportion of non-citizens did not know their HIV-positive status prior to BCPP testing (75%) as compared to citizens (15%) [p = 0.003]. Among residents with knowledge of their HIV-positive status before BCPP, 79% of the non-citizens (72/91) were on ART compared to 86% (8,267/9,652) of citizens (p = 0.137). CONCLUSIONS: Although non-citizens were less likely to know their HIV-positive status compared to citizens, there were no differences in treatment uptake among non-citizens and citizens who knew their status. Designing interventions for non-citizens that provide HIV testing and treatment services commensurate to that of citizens as well as targeting communities with the largest number of non-citizens may help close a meaningful gap in the HIV care cascade and ensure ethical treatment for all HIV-positive persons. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01965470 (Botswana Combination Prevention Project).

BACKGROUND: The feasibility of reducing the population-level incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection by increasing community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and male circumcision is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a pair-matched, community-randomized trial in 30 rural or periurban communities in Botswana from 2013 to 2018. Participants in 15 villages in the intervention group received HIV testing and counseling, linkage to care, ART (started at a higher CD4 count than in standard care), and increased access to male circumcision services. The standard-care group also consisted of 15 villages. Universal ART became available in both groups in mid-2016. We enrolled a random sample of participants from approximately 20% of households in each community and measured the incidence of HIV infection through testing performed approximately once per year. The prespecified primary analysis was a permutation test of HIV incidence ratios. Pair-stratified Cox models were used to calculate 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Of 12,610 enrollees (81% of eligible household members), 29% were HIV-positive. Of the 8974 HIV-negative persons (4487 per group), 95% were retested for HIV infection over a median of 29 months. A total of 57 participants in the intervention group and 90 participants in the standard-care group acquired HIV infection (annualized HIV incidence, 0.59% and 0.92%, respectively). The unadjusted HIV incidence ratio in the intervention group as compared with the standard-care group was 0.69 (P = 0.09) by permutation test (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46 to 0.90 by pair-stratified Cox model). An end-of-trial survey in six communities (three per group) showed a significantly greater increase in the percentage of HIV-positive participants with an HIV-1 RNA level of 400 copies per milliliter or less in the intervention group (18 percentage points, from 70% to 88%) than in the standard-care group (8 percentage points, from 75% to 83%) (relative risk, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.16). The percentage of men who underwent circumcision increased by 10 percentage points in the intervention group and 2 percentage points in the standard-care group (relative risk, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Expanded HIV testing, linkage to care, and ART coverage were associated with increased population viral suppression. (Funded by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and others; Ya Tsie ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01965470.).

Background: We evaluated use of phylogenetic methods to predict the direction of HIV transmission. Methods: For 33 index-partner pairs with genetically-linked infection, samples were collected from partners and indexes close to time of partners' seroconversion (SC); 31 indexes also had an earlier sample. Phylogenies were inferred using env next-generation sequences (one tree per pair/subtype). Direction of transmission (DoT) predicted from each tree was classified as correct or incorrect based on which sequences (index or partner) were closest to the root. DoT was also assessed using maximum-parsimony to infer ancestral node states for 100 bootstrap trees. Results: DoT was predicted correctly for both single pair and subtype-specific trees in 22 pairs (67%) using SC samples and 23 pairs (74%) using early index samples. DoT was predicted incorrectly for four pairs (15%) using SC or early index samples. In the bootstrap analysis, DoT was predicted correctly for 18 pairs (55%) using SC samples and 24 pairs (73%) using early index samples. DoT was predicted incorrectly for seven pairs (21%) using SC samples and four pairs (13%) using early index samples. Conclusions: Phylogenetic methods based solely on tree topology of HIV env sequences, particularly without consideration of phylogenetic uncertainty, may be insufficient for determining DoT.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 RNA load is the best biological predictor of HIV transmission and treatment response. The rate of virologic suppression among key sub-populations can guide HIV prevention programs. METHODS: The Botswana Combination Prevention Project performed a population-based household survey among adults in 30 communities in Botswana. Data collected included knowledge of HIV-positive status, ART coverage and virologic suppression (HIV-1 RNA </=400 copies/mL). Individuals aged 16-29 years were considered young adults. RESULTS: Among 552 young people living with HIV (PLHIV) enrolled with RNA load data and ART status available, 51% (n=279) had undetectable HIV-1 RNA, including 54% of young women and 32% of young men (gender PR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.43-0.80; p<0.001). Compared with older adults (30-64 years old), young HIV-infected adults were significantly less likely to have undetectable HIV-1 RNA (PR: 0.65; 95%CI: 0.59-0.70; p<0.0001), including both men (PR: 0.43; 95%CI: 0.34-0.56; p<0.0001) and women (PR: 0.67; 95%CI: 0.62-0.74; p<0.0001). Among a subset of PLHIV receiving ART, young adults also were less likely to have undetectable HIV-1 RNA load than older adults (PR: 0.93; 95%CI: 0.90-0.95; p=<0.0001). Analysis of the care continuum revealed that inferior HIV diagnosis and sub-optimal linkage to care are the primary reasons for low virologic suppression among young adults. CONCLUSIONS: Young adults in Botswana are significantly less likely to have undetectable HIV-1 RNA load compared with older adults. In the era of broad scale-up of ART, interventions able to diagnose young adults living with HIV and link them to effective therapy are urgently needed.

BACKGROUND: In Kenya, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people with HIV infection has increased from 7% in 2006, to 57% in 2016; and, in western Kenya, coverage of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) increased from 45% in 2008, to 72% in 2014. We investigated trends in HIV prevalence and incidence in a high burden area in western Kenya in 2011-16. METHODS: In 2011, 2012, and 2016, population-based surveys were done via a health and demographic surveillance system and home-based counselling and testing in Gem, Siaya County, Kenya, including 28 688, 17 021, and 16 772 individuals aged 15-64 years. Data on demographic variables, self-reported HIV status, and risk factors were collected. Rapid HIV testing was offered to survey participants. Participants were tracked between surveys by use of health and demographic surveillance system identification numbers. HIV prevalence was calculated as a proportion, and HIV incidence was expressed as number of new infections per 1000 person-years of follow-up. FINDINGS: HIV prevalence was stable in participants aged 15-64 years: 15% (4300/28 532) in 2011, 12% (2051/16 875) in 2012, and 15% (2312/15 626) in 2016. Crude prevalences in participants aged 15-34 years were 11% (1893/17 197) in 2011, 10% (1015/10 118) in 2012, and 9% (848/9125) in 2016; adjusted for age and sex these prevalences were 11%, 9%, and 8%. 12 606 (41%) of the 30 520 non-HIV-infected individuals enrolled were seen again in at least one more survey round, and were included in the analysis of HIV incidence. HIV incidence was 11.1 (95% CI 9.1-13.1) per 1000 person-years from 2011 to 2012, and 5.7 (4.6-6.9) per 1000 person-years from 2012 to 2016. INTERPRETATION: With increasing coverage of ART and VMMC, HIV incidence declined substantially in Siaya County between 2011 and 2016. VMMC, but not ART, was suggested to have a direct protective effect, presumably because ART tended to be given to individuals with advanced HIV infection. HIV incidence is still high and not close to the elimination target of one per 1000 person-years. The effect of further scale-up of ART and VMMC needs to be monitored. FUNDING: Data were collected under Cooperative Agreements with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with funding from the President's Emergency Fund for AIDS Relief.

UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and Fast-Track commitments are presented as precursors to ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030, through effecting a 90% reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths from 2010 levels (HIV epidemic control). Botswana, a low to middle-income country with the third-highest HIV prevalence, and Australia, a low-prevalence high-income country with an epidemic concentrated among men who have sex with men (MSM), have made significant strides towards achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. These two countries provide lessons for different epidemic settings. This paper discusses the lessons that can be drawn from Botswana and Australia with respect to their success in HIV testing, treatment, viral suppression and other HIV prevention strategies for HIV epidemic control. Botswana and Australia are on target to achieving the 90-90-90 targets for HIV epidemic control, made possible by comprehensive HIV testing and treatment programmes in the two countries. As of 2015, 70% of all people assumed to be living with HIV had viral suppression in Botswana and Australia. However, HIV incidence remains above one per cent in the general population in Botswana and in MSM in Australia. The two countries have demonstrated that rapid HIV testing that is accessible and targeted at key and vulnerable populations is required in order to continue identifying new HIV infections. All citizens living with HIV in both countries are eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral load monitoring through government-funded programmes. Notwithstanding their success in reducing HIV transmission to date, programmes in both countries must continue to be supported at current levels to maintain epidemic suppression. Scaled HIV testing, linkage to care, universal ART, monitoring patients on treatment over and above strengthened HIV prevention strategies (e.g. male circumcision and pre-exposure prophylaxis) will all continue to require funding. The progress that Botswana and Australia have made towards meeting the 90-90-90 targets is commendable. However, in order to reduce HIV incidence significantly towards 2030, there is a need for sustained HIV testing, linkage to care and high treatment coverage. Botswana and Australia provide useful lessons for developing countries with generalized epidemics and high-income countries with concentrated epidemics.

DESIGN: Universal voluntary HIV counselling and testing followed by prompt initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all those diagnosed HIV-infected (universal test and treat, UTT) is now a global health standard. However, its population-level impact, feasibility and cost remain unknown. Five community-based trials have been implemented in sub-Saharan Africa to measure the effects of various UTT strategies at population level: BCPP/YaTsie in Botswana, MaxART in Swaziland, HPTN 071 (PopART) in South Africa and Zambia, SEARCH in Uganda and Kenya and ANRS 12249 TasP in South Africa. This report describes and contrasts the contexts, research methodologies, intervention packages, themes explored, evolution of study designs and interventions related to each of these five UTT trials. METHODS: We conducted a comparative assessment of the five trials using data extracted from study protocols and collected during baseline studies, with additional input from study investigators. We organized differences and commonalities across the trials in five categories: trial contexts, research designs, intervention packages, trial themes and adaptations. RESULTS: All performed in the context of generalized HIV epidemics, the trials highly differ in their social, demographic, economic, political and health systems settings. They share the common aim of assessing the impact of UTT on the HIV epidemic but differ in methodological aspects such as study design and eligibility criteria for trial populations. In addition to universal ART initiation, the trials deliver a wide range of biomedical, behavioural and structural interventions as part of their UTT strategies. The five studies explore common issues, including the uptake rates of the trial services and individual health outcomes. All trials have adapted since their initiation to the evolving political, economic and public health contexts, including adopting the successive national recommendations for ART initiation. CONCLUSIONS: We found substantial commonalities but also differences between the five UTT trials in their design, conduct and multidisciplinary outputs. As empirical literature on how UTT may improve efficiency and quality of HIV care at population level is still scarce, this article provides a foundation for more collaborative research on UTT and supports evidence-based decision making for HIV care in country and internationally.

INTRODUCTION: The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 trial demonstrated that early antiretroviral therapy (ART) prevented 93% of HIV transmission events in serodiscordant couples. Some linked infections were observed shortly after ART initiation or after virologic failure. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate factors associated with time to viral suppression and virologic failure in participants who initiated ART in HPTN 052. METHODS: 1566 participants who had a viral load (VL) > 400 copies/mL at enrollment were included in the analyses. This included 832 in the early ART arm (CD4 350-550 cells/mm3 at ART initiation) and 734 in the delayed ART arm (204 with a CD4 < 250 cells/mm3 at ART initiation; 530 with any CD4 at ART initiation). Viral suppression was defined as two consecutive VLs ≤ 400 copies/mL after ART initiation; virologic failure was defined as two consecutive VLs > 1000 copies/mL > 24 weeks after ART initiation. RESULTS: Overall, 93% of participants achieved viral suppression by 12 months. The annual incidence of virologic failure was 3.6%. Virologic outcomes were similar in the two study arms. Longer time to viral suppression was associated with younger age, higher VL at ART initiation, and region (Africa vs. Asia). Virologic failure was strongly associated with younger age, lower educational level, and lack of suppression by three months; lower VL and higher CD4 at ART initiation were also associated with virologic failure. CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical and demographic factors were identified that were associated with longer time to viral suppression and virologic failure. Recognition of these factors may help optimize ART for HIV treatment and prevention.

Background An interim analysis of data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 trial showed that antiretroviral therapy (ART) prevented more than 96% of genetically linked infections caused by human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in serodiscordant couples. ART was then offered to all patients with HIV-1 infection (index participants). The study included more than 5 years of follow-up to assess the durability of such therapy for the prevention of HIV-1 transmission. Methods We randomly assigned 1763 index participants to receive either early or delayed ART. In the early-ART group, 886 participants started therapy at enrollment (CD4+ count, 350 to 550 cells per cubic millimeter). In the delayed-ART group, 877 participants started therapy after two consecutive CD4+ counts fell below 250 cells per cubic millimeter or if an illness indicative of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (i.e., an AIDS-defining illness) developed. The primary study end point was the diagnosis of genetically linked HIV-1 infection in the previously HIV-1-negative partner in an intention-to-treat analysis. Results Index participants were followed for 10,031 person-years; partners were followed for 8509 person-years. Among partners, 78 HIV-1 infections were observed during the trial (annual incidence, 0.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7 to 1.1). Viral-linkage status was determined for 72 (92%) of the partner infections. Of these infections, 46 were linked (3 in the early-ART group and 43 in the delayed-ART group; incidence, 0.5%; 95% CI, 0.4 to 0.7) and 26 were unlinked (14 in the early-ART group and 12 in the delayed-ART group; incidence, 0.3%; 95% CI, 0.2 to 0.4). Early ART was associated with a 93% lower risk of linked partner infection than was delayed ART (hazard ratio, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.22). No linked infections were observed when HIV-1 infection was stably suppressed by ART in the index participant. Conclusions The early initiation of ART led to a sustained decrease in genetically linked HIV-1 infections in sexual partners. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; HPTN 052 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00074581).

BACKGROUND: HIV programmes face challenges achieving high rates of HIV testing and treatment needed to optimise health and to reduce transmission. We used data from the Botswana Combination Prevention Project study survey to assess Botswana's progress toward achieving UNAIDS targets for 2020: 90% of all people living with HIV knowing their status, 90% of these receiving sustained antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 90% of those having virological suppression (90-90-90). METHODS: A population-based sample of individuals was recruited and interviewed in 30 rural and periurban communities from Oct 30, 2013, to Nov 24, 2015, as part of a large, ongoing community-randomised trial designed to assess the effect of a combination prevention package on HIV incidence. A random sample of about 20% of households in each community was selected. Consenting household residents aged 16-64 years who were Botswana citizens or spouses of citizens responded to a questionnaire and had blood drawn for HIV testing in the absence of documentation of positive HIV status. Viral load testing was done in all HIV-infected participants, irrespective of treatment status. We used modified Poisson generalised estimating equations to obtain prevalence ratios, corresponding Huber robust SEs, and 95% Wald CIs to examine associations between individual sociodemographic factors and a binary outcome indicating achievement of the three individual and combined overall 90-90-90 targets. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01965470. FINDINGS: 81% of enumerated eligible household members took part in the survey (10% refused and 9% were absent). Among 12 610 participants surveyed, 3596 (29%) were infected with HIV, and 2995 (83.3%, 95% CI 81.4-85.2) of these individuals already knew their HIV status. Among those who knew their HIV status, 2617 (87.4%, 95% CI 85.8-89.0) were receiving ART (95% of those eligible by national guidelines, and 73% of all infected people). Of the 2609 individuals receiving ART with a viral load measurement, 2517 (96.5%, 95% CI 96.0-97.0) had viral load of 400 copies per mL or less. Overall, 70.2% (95% CI 67.5-73.0) of HIV-infected people had virological suppression, close to the UNAIDS target of 73%. INTERPRETATION: UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets are achievable even in resource-constrained settings with high HIV burden. FUNDING: US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

OBJECTIVE: To identify unique characteristics of recent versus established HIV infections and describe sexual transmission networks, we characterized circulating HIV-1 strains from two randomly selected populations of ART-naive participants in rural western Kenya. METHODS: Recent HIV infections were identified by the HIV-1 subtype B, E and D, immunoglobulin G capture immunoassay (IgG BED-CEIA) and BioRad avidity assays. Genotypic and phylogenetic analyses were performed on the pol gene to identify transmitted drug resistance (TDR) mutations, characterize HIV subtypes and potential transmission clusters. Factors associated with recent infection and clustering were assessed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 320 specimens, 40 (12.5%) were concordantly identified by the two assays as recent infections. Factors independently associated with being recently infected were age ≤19 years (P = 0.001) and history of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the past six months (P = 0.004). HIV subtype distribution differed in recently versus chronically infected participants, with subtype A observed among 53% recent vs. 68% chronic infections (p = 0.04) and subtype D among 26% recent vs. 12% chronic infections (p = 0.012). Overall, the prevalence of primary drug resistance was 1.16%. Of the 258 sequences, 11.2% were in monophyletic clusters of between 2-4 individuals. In multivariate analysis factors associated with clustering included having recent HIV infection P = 0.043 and being from Gem region P = 0.002. CONCLUSIONS: Recent HIV-1 infection was more frequent among 13-19 year olds compared with older age groups, underscoring the ongoing risk and susceptibility of younger persons for acquiring HIV infection. Our findings also provide evidence of sexual networks. The association of recent infections with clustering suggests that early infections may be contributing significant proportions of onward transmission highlighting the need for early diagnosis and treatment as prevention for ongoing prevention. Larger studies are needed to better understand the structure of these networks and subsequently implement and evaluate targeted interventions.

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of anaemia during pregnancy is estimated to be 35-75% in sub-Saharan Africa and is associated with an increased risk of maternal mortality. We evaluated the frequency and factors associated with anaemia in HIV-infected women undergoing antiretroviral (ARV) therapy for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) enrolled in The Kisumu Breastfeeding Study 2003-2009. METHODS: Maternal haematological parameters were monitored from 32 to 34 weeks of gestation to 2 years post-delivery among 522 enrolled women. Clinical and laboratory assessments for causes of anaemia were performed, and appropriate management was initiated. Anaemia was graded using the National Institutes of Health Division of AIDS 1994 Adult Toxicity Tables. Data were analysed using SAS software, v 9.2. The Wilcoxon two-sample rank test was used to compare groups. A logistic regression model was fitted to describe the trend in anaemia over time. RESULTS: At enrolment, the prevalence of any grade anaemia (Hb < 9.4 g/dl) was 61.8%, but fell during ARV therapy, reaching a nadir (7.4%) by 6 months post-partum. A total of 41 women (8%) developed severe anaemia (Hb < 7 g/dl) during follow-up; 2 (4.9%) were hospitalised for blood transfusion, whereas 3 (7.3%) were transfused while hospitalised (for delivery). The greatest proportion of severe anaemia events occurred around delivery (48.8%; n = 20). Anaemia (Hb ≥ 7 and < 9.4 g/dl) at enrolment was associated with severe anaemia at delivery (OR 5.87; 95% CI: 4.48, 7.68, P < 0.01). Few cases of severe anaemia coincided with clinical malaria (24.4%; n = 10) and helminth (7.3%; n = 3) infections. CONCLUSION: Resolution of anaemia among most participants during study follow-up was likely related to receipt of ARV therapy. Efforts should be geared towards addressing common causes of anaemia in HIV-infected pregnant women, prioritising initiation of ARV therapy and management of peripartum blood loss.