Global measles vaccine coverage has stagnated at approximately 85% for over a decade. By simplifying vaccine logistics and administration, the measles and rubella microarray patch (MR-MAP) may improve coverage. Clinical trials have demonstrated similar safety and immunogenicity in 9-month-old infants for MR-MAPs compared with syringe-and-needle vaccination. To aid commercialization, we present estimates of MR-MAP demand. We created a spreadsheet-based tool to estimate demand for MR-MAPs using data from 180 WHO countries during 2000-2016. Five immunization scenarios were analyzed: (1a) Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) in Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi)-eligible countries and (1b) WHO countries where preventive SIAs are routinely conducted; (2) SIAs and outbreak response immunization in all WHO countries; (3) routine immunization (RI) and SIAs in six high-burden measles countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan); (4) RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries; and (5) hard-to-reach populations. MR-MAP demand varied greatly across scenarios. Forecasts for 2025-2034 estimate from 137 million doses in hard-to-reach populations (scenario 5) to 2.587 billion doses for RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries (scenario 4). When policymakers and manufacturers assess MR-MAP demand, they may consider multiple scenarios to allow for a complete consideration of potential markets and public health needs.

Case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) are public health measures that aim to break the chain of pathogen transmission. Changes in viral characteristics of COVID-19 variants have likely affected the effectiveness of CICT programs. We estimated and compared the cases averted in Vermont when the original COVID-19 strain circulated (Nov. 25, 2020-Jan. 19, 2021) with two periods when the Delta strain dominated (Aug. 1-Sept. 25, 2021, and Sept. 26-Nov. 20, 2021). When the original strain circulated, we estimated that CICT prevented 7180 cases (55% reduction in disease burden), compared to 1437 (15% reduction) and 9970 cases (40% reduction) when the Delta strain circulated. Despite the Delta variant being more infectious and having a shorter latency period, CICT remained an effective tool to slow spread of COVID-19; while these viral characteristics did diminish CICT effectiveness, non-viral characteristics had a much greater impact on CICT effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Facing a surge of COVID-19 cases in late August 2021, the U.S. state of Illinois re-enacted its COVID-19 mask mandate for the general public and issued a requirement for workers in certain professions to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly testing. The mask mandate required any individual, regardless of their vaccination status, to wear a well-fitting mask in an indoor setting. METHODS: We used Illinois Department of Public Health's COVID-19 confirmed case and vaccination data and investigated scenarios where masking and vaccination would have been reduced to mimic what would have happened had the mask mandate or vaccine requirement not been put in place. The study examined a range of potential reductions in masking and vaccination mimicking potential scenarios had the mask mandate or vaccine requirement not been enacted. We estimated COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by changes in masking and vaccination during the period covering October 20 to December 20, 2021. RESULTS: We find that the announcement and implementation of a mask mandate are likely to correlate with a strong protective effect at reducing COVID-19 burden and the announcement of a vaccinate-or-test requirement among frontline professionals is likely to correlate with a more modest protective effect at reducing COVID-19 burden. In our most conservative scenario, we estimated that from the period of October 20 to December 20, 2021, the mask mandate likely prevented approximately 58,000 cases and 1,175 hospitalizations, while the vaccinate-or-test requirement may have prevented at most approximately 24,000 cases and 475 hospitalizations. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that mask mandates and vaccine-or-test requirements are vital in mitigating the burden of COVID-19 during surges of the virus.

Because of constrained personnel time, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health (Philadelphia, PA, USA) adjusted its COVID-19 contact tracing protocol in summer 2021 by prioritizing recent cases and limiting staff time per case. This action reduced required staff hours to prevent each case from 21-30 to 8-11 hours, while maintaining program effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: During November 2019-October 2021, a pediatric influenza vaccination demonstration project was conducted in four sub-counties in Kenya. The demonstration piloted two different delivery strategies: year-round vaccination and a four-month vaccination campaign. Our objective was to compare the costs of both delivery strategies. METHODS: Cost data were collected using standardized questionnaires and extracted from government and project accounting records. We reported total costs and costs per vaccine dose administered by delivery strategy from the Kenyan government perspective in 2021 US$. Costs were separated into financial costs (monetary expenditures) and economic costs (financial costs plus the value of existing resources). We also separated costs by administrative level (national, regional, county, sub-county, and health facility) and program activity (advocacy and social mobilization; training; distribution, storage, and waste management; service delivery; monitoring; and supervision). RESULTS: The total estimated cost of the pediatric influenza demonstration project was US$ 225,269 (financial) and US$ 326,691 (economic) for the year-round delivery strategy (30,397 vaccine doses administered), compared with US$ 214,753 (financial) and US$ 242,385 (economic) for the campaign strategy (25,404 doses administered). Vaccine purchase represented the largest proportion of costs for both strategies. Excluding vaccine purchase, the cost per dose administered was US$ 1.58 (financial) and US$ 5.84 (economic) for the year-round strategy and US$ 2.89 (financial) and US$ 4.56 (economic) for the campaign strategy. CONCLUSIONS: The financial cost per dose was 83% higher for the campaign strategy than the year-round strategy due to larger expenditures for advocacy and social mobilization, training, and hiring of surge staff for service delivery. However, the economic cost per dose was more comparable for both strategies (year-round 22% higher than campaign), balanced by higher costs of operating equipment and monitoring activities for the year-round strategy. These delivery cost data provide real-world evidence to inform pediatric influenza vaccine introduction in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed a simple spreadsheet-based tool to help state and local public health officials assess the performance and impact of COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing in their jurisdiction. The applicability and feasibility of building such a tool for sexually transmitted diseases were assessed. METHODS: The key epidemiologic differences between sexually transmitted diseases and respiratory diseases (e.g., mixing patterns, incubation period, duration of infection, and the availability of treatment) were identified, and their implications for modeling case investigation and contact tracing impact with a simple spreadsheet tool were remarked on. Existing features of the COVID-19 tool that are applicable for evaluating the impact of case investigation and contact tracing for sexually transmitted diseases were also identified. RESULTS: Our findings offer recommendations for the future development of a spreadsheet-based modeling tool for evaluating the impact of sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing efforts. Generally, we advocate for simplifying sexually transmitted disease-specific complexities and performing sensitivity analyses to assess uncertainty. The authors also acknowledge that more complex modeling approaches might be required but note that it is possible that a sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing tool could incorporate features from more complex models while maintaining a user-friendly interface. CONCLUSIONS: A sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing tool could benefit from the incorporation of key features of the COVID-19 model, namely its user-friendly interface. The inherent differences between sexually transmitted diseases and respiratory viruses should not be seen as a limitation to the development of such tool.

This report summarizes new recommendation and updates previous recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) for postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) to prevent human rabies (CDC. Human rabies prevention---United States, 2008: recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. MMWR 2008;57[No. RR-3]). Previously, ACIP recommended a 5-dose rabies vaccination regimen with human diploid cell vaccine (HDCV) or purified chick embryo cell vaccine (PCECV). These new recommendations reduce the number of vaccine doses to four. The reduction in doses recommended for PEP was based in part on evidence from rabies virus pathogenesis data, experimental animal work, clinical studies, and epidemiologic surveillance. These studies indicated that 4 vaccine doses in combination with rabies immune globulin (RIG) elicited adequate immune responses and that a fifth dose of vaccine did not contribute to more favorable outcomes. For persons previously unvaccinated with rabies vaccine, the reduced regimen of 4 1-mL doses of HDCV or PCECV should be administered intramuscularly. The first dose of the 4-dose course should be administered as soon as possible after exposure (day 0). Additional doses then should be administered on days 3, 7, and 14 after the first vaccination. ACIP recommendations for the use of RIG remain unchanged. For persons who previously received a complete vaccination series (pre- or postexposure prophylaxis) with a cell-culture vaccine or who previously had a documented adequate rabies virus-neutralizing antibody titer following vaccination with noncell-culture vaccine, the recommendation for a 2-dose PEP vaccination series has not changed. Similarly, the number of doses recommended for persons with altered immunocompetence has not changed; for such persons, PEP should continue to comprise a 5-dose vaccination regimen with 1 dose of RIG. Recommendations for pre-exposure prophylaxis also remain unchanged, with 3 doses of vaccine administered on days 0, 7, and 21 or 28. Prompt rabies PEP combining wound care, infiltration of RIG into and around the wound, and multiple doses of rabies cell-culture vaccine continue to be highly effective in preventing human rabies.

OBJECTIVE Dog vaccination is a cost-effective approach to preventing human rabies deaths. In Haiti, the 2019 dog vaccination campaign did not include the capital city, and the 2020 campaign was cancelled because of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions and redirection of funds. We estimated the number of human lives that could be saved by resuming dog vaccination in 2021 compared to 2022 and compared the cost-effectiveness of these two scenarios.METHODS We modified a previously published rabies transmission and economic model to estimate trends in dog and human rabies cases in Haiti from 2005-2025. We compared model outputs to surveillance data on human rabies deaths from 2005-2020 and animal rabies cases from 2018-2020. We then estimated the human health and cost implications of restarting dog vaccination programs in either 2021 or 2022.FINDINGS Model predictions and animal surveillance data from Haiti both suggest a 5-to 8-fold increase in animal rabies cases has occurred in the capital city between Fall 2019 and Fall 2020. We estimate that restarting dog vaccination in Haiti in 2021 compared to 2022 could save 285 human lives and prevent 6,541 human rabies exposures over a five-year period and may decrease program costs due to reduced need for human post-exposure prophylaxis.CONCLUSIONS A one-year delay in resuming dog vaccination in Haiti, from 2021 to 2022, could cost hundreds of lives over the next 5 years. Interruptions in dog vaccination campaigns before elimination is achieved can lead to significant human rabies epidemics if not promptly resumed.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementNo external funding.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:N/A modeling paperAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data are available in the manuscript or supplementary materials.

Context The implementation of case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) for controlling COVID-19 (caused by SARS-Cov-2 virus) has proven challenging due to varying levels of public acceptance and initially constrained resources, especially enough trained staff. Evaluating the impacts of CICT will aid efforts to improve such programs.Objectives Estimate the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by CICT and identify CICT processes that could improve overall effectiveness.Design We used data on proportion of cases interviewed, contacts notified or monitored, and days from testing to contact notification from 14 jurisdictions to model the impact of CICT on cumulative cases counts and hospitalizations over a 60-day period. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s COVIDTracer tool, we estimated a range of impacts by assuming either contacts would quarantine only if monitored or would do so upon notification of potential exposure. We also varied the observed program metrics to assess their relative influence.Results Performance by jurisdictions varied widely. Jurisdictions isolated between 12 and 86% of cases (including contacts which became cases) within 6 to 10 days after exposure-and-infection. We estimated that CICT-related reductions in transmission ranged from 0.4% to 32%. For every 100 cases prevented by nonpharmaceutical interventions, CICT averted between 4 and 97 additional cases. Reducing time to case isolation by one day increased averted case estimates by up to 15 percentage points. Increasing the proportion of cases interviewed or contacts notified by 20 percentage points each resulted in at most 3 or 6 percentage point improvements in averted cases.Conclusions We estimated that case investigation and contact tracing reduced the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations among all jurisdictions studied. Reducing time to isolation produced the greatest improvements in impact of CICT.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis work was performed as part of the official duties of all participants in support of the US CDC's COVID-19 Response.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:This activity was reviewed by CDC and was conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData is available upon request

Importance: Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 Case Investigation and Contact Tracing (CICT) programs is lacking. Policymakers need this evidence to assess its value. Objective(s): Estimate COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted nationwide by US states' CICT programs. Design(s): We combined data from US CICT programs (e.g., proportion of cases interviewed, contacts notified or monitored, and days to case and contact notification) with incidence data to model CICT impacts over 60 days period (November 25, 2020 to January 23, 2021) during the height of the pandemic. We estimated a range of impacts by varying assumed compliance with isolation and quarantine recommendations. Setting(s): US States and Territories Participants: Fifty-nine state and territorial health departments that received federal funding supporting COVID-19 pandemic response activities were eligible for inclusion. Of these, 22 states and 1 territory reported all measures necessary for the analysis. These 23 jurisdictions covered 42.5% of the US population (140 million persons), spanned all 4 census regions, and reported data that reflected all 59 federally funded CICT programs. Intervention(s): Public health case investigation and contact tracing Main Outcomes and Measures: Cases and hospitalizations averted; percent of cases averted among cases not prevented by vaccination and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (other NPIs). Result(s): We estimated 1.11 million cases and 27,231 hospitalizations were averted by CICT programs under a scenario where 80% of interviewed cases and monitored contacts, and 30% of notified contacts fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidance, eliminating their contributions to future transmission. As many as 1.36 million cases and 33,527 hospitalizations could have been prevented if all interviewed cases and monitored contacts had entered into and fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidelines upon being interviewed or notified. Across all scenarios and jurisdictions, CICT averted a median of 21.2% (range: 1.3% - 65.8%) of the cases not prevented by vaccination and other NPIs. Conclusions and Relevance: CICT programs likely had a substantial role in curtailing the pandemic in most jurisdictions during the winter 2020-2021 peak. Differences in impact across jurisdictions indicate an opportunity to further improve CICT effectiveness. These estimates demonstrate the potential benefits from sustaining and improving these programs. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license.

Background: Progress towards measles and rubella (MR) elimination has stagnated as countries are unable to reach the required 95% vaccine coverage. Microarray patches (MAPs) are anticipated to offer significant programmatic advantages to needle and syringe (N/S) presentation and increase MR vaccination coverage. A demand forecast analysis of the programmatic doses required (PDR) could accelerate MR-MAP development by informing the size and return of the investment required to manufacture MAPs. Method(s): Unconstrained global MR-MAP demand for 2030-2040 was estimated for three scenarios, for groups of countries with similar characteristics (archetypes), and four types of uses of MR-MAPs (use cases). The base scenario 1 assumed that MR-MAPs would replace a share of MR doses delivered by N/S, and that MAPs can reach a proportion of previously unimmunised populations. Scenario 2 assumed that MR-MAPs would be piloted in selected countries in each region of the World Health Organization (WHO); and scenario 3 explored introduction of MR-MAPs earlier in countries with the lowest measles vaccine coverage and highest MR disease burden. Result(s): For the base scenario (1), the estimated global PDR for MR-MAPs was forecasted at 30 million doses in 2030 and increased to 220 million doses by 2040. Compared to scenario 1, scenario 2 resulted in an overall decrease in PDR of 18%, and scenario 3 resulted in a 21% increase in PDR between 2030-2040. Conclusion(s): Significant demand is expected for MR-MAPs between 2030-2040, however, efforts are required to address remaining data quality, uncertainties and gaps that underpin the assumptions in this analysis. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

BACKGROUND: Progress toward measles and rubella (MR) elimination has stagnated as countries are unable to reach the required 95% vaccine coverage. Microarray patches (MAPs) are anticipated to offer significant programmatic advantages to needle and syringe (N/S) presentation and increase MR vaccination coverage. A demand forecast analysis of the programmatic doses required (PDR) could accelerate MR-MAP development by informing the size and return of the investment required to manufacture MAPs. METHODS: Unconstrained global MR-MAP demand for 2030-2040 was estimated for three scenarios, for groups of countries with similar characteristics (archetypes), and four types of uses of MR-MAPs (use cases). The base scenario 1 assumed that MR-MAPs would replace a share of MR doses delivered by N/S, and that MAPs can reach a proportion of previously unimmunised populations. Scenario 2 assumed that MR-MAPs would be piloted in selected countries in each region of the World Health Organization (WHO); and scenario 3 explored introduction of MR-MAPs earlier in countries with the lowest measles vaccine coverage and highest MR disease burden. We conducted sensitivity analyses to measure the impact of data uncertainty. RESULTS: For the base scenario (1), the estimated global PDR for MR-MAPs was forecasted at 30 million doses in 2030 and increased to 220 million doses by 2040. Compared to scenario 1, scenario 2 resulted in an overall decrease in PDR of 18%, and scenario 3 resulted in a 21% increase in PDR between 2030 and 2040. Sensitivity analyses revealed that assumptions around the anticipated reach or coverage of MR-MAPs, particularly in the hard-to-reach and MOV populations, and the market penetration of MR-MAPs significantly impacted the estimated PDR. CONCLUSIONS: Significant demand is expected for MR-MAPs between 2030 and 2040, however, efforts are required to address remaining data quality, uncertainties and gaps that underpin the assumptions in this analysis.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of circulating seasonal influenza strains changed following the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1). A universal influenza vaccination recommendation has been implemented and new vaccine types have become available post-2009. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of routine annual influenza vaccination in the context of this new evidence. METHODS: A state transition simulation model was constructed to estimate the health and economic outcomes of influenza vaccination compared to no vaccination for hypothetical US cohorts stratified by age and risk status. Model input parameters were derived from multiple sources, including post-2009 vaccine effectiveness data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network. The analysis used societal and healthcare sector perspectives and a one-year time horizon, except permanent outcomes were also included. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in dollars per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. RESULTS: Compared to no vaccination, vaccination yielded ICERs lower than $95,000/QALY for all age and risk groups, except for non-high-risk adults 18-49 years ($194,000/QALY). Vaccination was cost-saving for adults ≥50 years at higher risk for influenza-related complications. Results were most sensitive to changes in the probability of influenza illness. Performing the analysis from the healthcare sector perspective, excluding vaccination time costs, delivering vaccinations in lower-cost settings, and including productivity losses improved the cost-effectiveness of vaccination. Sensitivity analysis revealed that vaccination remains below $100,000/QALY for older persons ≥65 years at vaccine effectiveness estimates as low as 4 %. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination varied by age and risk status and was less than $95,000/QALY for all subgroups, except for non-high-risk working-age adults. Results were sensitive to the probability of influenza illness and vaccination was more favorable under certain scenarios. Vaccination for higher risk subgroups resulted in ICERs below $100,000/QALY even at low levels of vaccine effectiveness or circulating virus.

We combined field-based data with mathematical modeling to estimate the effectiveness of smartphone-enabled COVID-19 exposure notification in Pennsylvania, USA. We estimated that digital notifications potentially averted 7-69 cases/1,000 notifications during November 8, 2020-January 2, 2021. Greater use and increased compliance could increase the effectiveness of digital notifications.

Approximately 476,000 cases of Lyme disease are diagnosed in the United States annually, yet comprehensive economic evaluations are lacking. In a prospective study among reported cases in Lyme disease-endemic states, we estimated the total patient cost and total societal cost of the disease. In addition, we evaluated disease and demographic factors associated with total societal cost. Participants had a mean patient cost of ≈$1,200 (median $240) and a mean societal cost of ≈$2,000 (median $700). Patients with confirmed disseminated disease or probable disease had approximately double the societal cost of those with confirmed localized disease. The annual, aggregate cost of diagnosed Lyme disease could be $345-968 million (2016 US dollars) to US society. Our findings emphasize the importance of effective prevention and early diagnosis to reduce illness and associated costs. These results can be used in cost-effectiveness analyses of current and future prevention methods, such as a vaccine.

Quantifying the effect of public health actions on population health is essential when justifying sustained public health investment. Using modeling, we conservatively estimated that rapid response to a multistate foodborne outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium in the United States in 2018 potentially averted 94 reported cases and $633,181 in medical costs and productivity losses.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for N95 respirators far exceeded the supply, leading to widespread shortages. Initially, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not recommend N95 respirators in nonhealthcare settings, in order to reserve them for healthcare workers. As N95s became more available, the recommendations were updated in May 2021 to include N95 respirators for nonhealthcare settings. In this study, we estimated the numbers of N95s needed for nonhealthcare essential workers in the United States. This information is valuable for crisis preparedness and planning for future large-scale communicable respiratory infectious disease epidemics or pandemics. We adapted a spreadsheet-based tool originally built to estimate the potential demand for N95 respirators during an influenza pandemic. We defined nonhealthcare essential occupations according to the 2020 US Department of Homeland Security guidance and used US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment numbers and Occupational Information Network data as model parameters. We modeled minimum, intermediate, and maximum N95 provision scenarios (as 1, 2, and 5 N95 respirators, respectively) per week per worker, for pandemic durations of 15 and 40 weeks. For 85.15 million nonhealthcare essential workers during a 15-week pandemic, an estimated 1.3 billion N95 respirators would be needed under minimum provision scenarios, 2.6 billion for intermediate provision, and 6.4 billion for maximum provision. During a 40-week pandemic, these estimates increased to 3.4 billion, 6.8 billion, and 17 billion. Public health authorities and policymakers can use these estimates when considering workplace respirator-wearing practices, including prioritization of allocation, for nonhealthcare essential workers. Our novel spreadsheet-based tool can also be used to quickly generate estimates of other preparedness and response equipment.

OBJECTIVE: This project aimed to quantify and compare Massachusetts and Georgia public school districts' 2017-2018 winter-storm-related Twitter unplanned school closure announcements (USCA). METHODS: Public school district Twitter handles and National Center for Education Statistics data were obtained for Georgia and Massachusetts. Tweets were retrieved using Twitter application programming interface. Descriptive statistics and regression analyses were conducted to compare the rates of winter-storm-related USCA. RESULTS: Massachusetts had more winter storms than Georgia during the 2017-2018 winter season, but Massachusetts school districts posted winter-storm-related USCA at a 60% lower rate per affected day (adjusted rate ratio, aRR = 0.40, 95% confidence intervals, CI: 0.30, 0.52) than Georgia school districts after controlling for the student enrollments and Twitter followers count per Twitter account. A 10-fold increase in followers count was correlated with a 118% increase in USCA rate per affected day (aRR = 2.18; 95% CI: 1.74, 2.75). Georgia school districts had a higher average USCA tweet rate per winter-storm-affected day than Massachusetts school districts. A higher number of Twitter followers was associated with a higher number of USCA tweets per winter-storm-affected day. CONCLUSION: Twitter accounts of school districts in Massachusetts had a lower tweet rate for USCA per winter-storm-affected days than those in Georgia.

OBJECTIVE: Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention monitor unplanned school closure (USC) reports through online systematic searches (OSS) to assist public health emergency responses. We counted the additional reports identified through social media along with OSS to improve USC monitoring. METHODS: Facebook and Twitter data of public-school districts and private schools in counties affected by California wildfires in October and December of 2017 and January of 2018 were retrieved. We computed descriptive statistics and performed multivariable logistic regression for both OSS and social media data. RESULTS: Among the 362 public-school districts in wildfire-affected counties, USCs were identified for 115 (32%) districts, of which OSS identified 104 (90%), Facebook, 59 (52%), and Twitter, 37 (32%). These data correspond to 4622 public schools, among which USCs were identified for 888 (19.2%) schools, of which OSS identified 722 (81.3%), Facebook, 496 (55.9%), and Twitter, 312 (35.1%). Among 1289 private schools, USCs were identified for 104 schools, of which OSS identified 47 (45.2%), Facebook, 67 (64.4%), and Twitter, 29 (27.9%). USC announcements identified via social media, in addition to those via OSS, were 11 public school districts, 166 public schools, and 57 private schools. CONCLUSION: Social media complements OSS as additional resources for USC monitoring during disasters.

IMPORTANCE: Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) programs is lacking, but policy makers need this evidence to assess the value of such programs. OBJECTIVE: To estimate COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted nationwide by US states' CICT programs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This decision analytical model study used combined data from US CICT programs (eg, proportion of cases interviewed, contacts notified or monitored, and days to case and contact notification) with incidence data to model outcomes of CICT over a 60-day period (November 25, 2020, to January 23, 2021). The study estimated a range of outcomes by varying assumed compliance with isolation and quarantine recommendations. Fifty-nine state and territorial health departments that received federal funding supporting COVID-19 pandemic response activities were eligible for inclusion. Data analysis was performed from July to September 2021. EXPOSURE: Public health case investigation and contact tracing. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcomes were numbers of cases and hospitalizations averted and the percentage of cases averted among cases not prevented by vaccination and other nonpharmaceutical interventions. RESULTS: In total, 22 states and 1 territory reported all measures necessary for the analysis. These 23 jurisdictions covered 42.5% of the US population (approximately 140 million persons), spanned all 4 US Census regions, and reported data that reflected all 59 federally funded CICT programs. This study estimated that 1.11 million cases and 27 231 hospitalizations were averted by CICT programs under a scenario where 80% of interviewed cases and monitored contacts and 30% of notified contacts fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidance, eliminating their contributions to future transmission. As many as 1.36 million cases and 33 527 hospitalizations could have been prevented if all interviewed cases and monitored contacts had entered into and fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidelines upon being interviewed or notified. Across both scenarios and all jurisdictions, CICT averted an estimated median of 21.2% (range, 1.3%-65.8%) of the cases not prevented by vaccination and other nonpharmaceutical interventions. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that CICT programs likely had a substantial role in curtailing the pandemic in most jurisdictions during the 2020 to 2021 winter peak. Differences in outcomes across jurisdictions indicate an opportunity to further improve CICT effectiveness. These estimates demonstrate the potential benefits from sustaining and improving these programs.

CONTEXT: The implementation of case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) for controlling COVID-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus) has proven challenging due to varying levels of public acceptance and initially constrained resources, especially enough trained staff. Evaluating the impacts of CICT will aid efforts to improve such programs. OBJECTIVES: Estimate the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by CICT and identify CICT processes that could improve overall effectiveness. DESIGN: We used data on the proportion of cases interviewed, contacts notified or monitored, and days from testing to case and contact notification from 14 jurisdictions to model the impact of CICT on cumulative case counts and hospitalizations over a 60-day period. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVIDTracer Advanced tool, we estimated a range of impacts by assuming either contacts would quarantine only if monitored or would do so upon notification of potential exposure. We also varied the observed program metrics to assess their relative influence. RESULTS: Performance by jurisdictions varied widely. Jurisdictions isolated between 12% and 86% of cases (including contacts that became cases) within 6 to 10 days after infection. We estimated that CICT-related reductions in transmission ranged from 0.4% to 32%. For every 100 remaining cases after other nonpharmaceutical interventions were implemented, CICT averted between 4 and 97 additional cases. Reducing time to case isolation by 1 day increased averted case estimates by up to 15 percentage points. Increasing the proportion of cases interviewed or contacts notified by 20 percentage points each resulted in at most 3 or 6 percentage point improvements in averted cases. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that CICT reduced the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations among all jurisdictions studied. Reducing time to isolation produced the greatest improvements in impact of CICT.

Objectives: Immunization programs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are faced with an ever-growing number of vaccines of public health importance recommended by the World Health Organization, while also financing a greater proportion of the program through domestic resources. More than ever, national immunization programs must be equipped to contextualize global guidance and make choices that are best suited to their setting. The CAPACITI decision-support tool has been developed in collaboration with national immunization program decision makers in LMICs to structure and document an evidence-based, context-specific process for prioritizing or selecting among multiple vaccination products, services, or strategies. Methods: The CAPACITI decision-support tool is based on multi-criteria decision analysis, as a structured way to incorporate multiple sources of evidence and stakeholder perspectives. The tool has been developed iteratively in consultation with 12 countries across Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Results: The tool is flexible to existing country processes and can follow any type of multi-criteria decision analysis or a hybrid approach. It is structured into 5 sections: decision question, criteria for decision making, evidence assessment, appraisal, and recommendation. The Excel-based tool guides the user through the steps and document discussions in a transparent manner, with an emphasis on stakeholder engagement and country ownership. Conclusions: Pilot countries valued the CAPACITI decision-support tool as a means to consider multiple criteria and stakeholder perspectives and to evaluate trade-offs and the impact of data quality. With use, it is expected that LMICs will tailor steps to their context and streamline the tool for decision making. © 2021 ISPOR–The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of arboviral disease in the United States and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. A previous analysis found that a vaccination program targeting persons aged ≥60 years was more cost effective than universal vaccination, but costs remained high. METHODS: We used a mathematical Markov model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of an age- and incidence-based WNV vaccination program. We grouped states and large counties (≥100,000 persons aged ≥60 years) by median annual WNV incidence rates from 2004 to 2017 for persons aged ≥60 years. We defined WNV incidence thresholds, in increments of 0.5 cases per 100,000 persons ≥60 years. We calculated potential cost per WNV vaccine-prevented case and per quality adjusted life years (QALYs) saved. RESULTS: Vaccinating persons aged ≥60 years in states with an annual incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease of ≥0.5 per 100,000 resulted in approximately half the cost per health outcome averted compared to vaccinating persons aged ≥60 years in all the contiguous United States. This approach could potentially prevent 37% of all neuroinvasive disease cases and 63% of WNV-related deaths nationally. Employing such a threshold at a county-level further improved cost-effectiveness ratios while preventing 19% and 30% of WNV-related neuroinvasive disease cases and deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: An age- and incidence-based WNV vaccination program could be a more cost-effective strategy than an age-based program while still having a substantial impact on lowering WNV-related morbidity and mortality.

Dog vaccination is a cost-effective approach to preventing human rabies deaths. In Haiti, the last nation-wide dog vaccination campaign occurred in 2018. We estimated the number of human lives that could be saved by resuming dog vaccination in 2021 compared to 2022 and compared the cost-effectiveness of these two scenarios. We modified a previously published rabies transmission and economic model to estimate trends in dog and human rabies cases in Haiti from 2005 to 2025, with varying assumptions about when dog vaccinations resume. We compared model outputs to surveillance data on human rabies deaths from 2005 to 2020 and animal rabies cases from 2018 to 2020. Model predictions and surveillance data both suggest a 5- to 8-fold increase in animal rabies cases occurred in Haiti's capital city between Fall 2019 and Fall 2020. Restarting dog vaccination in Haiti in 2021 compared to 2022 could save 285 human lives and prevent 6541 human rabies exposures over a five-year period. It may also decrease program costs due to reduced need for human post-exposure prophylaxis. These results show that interruptions in dog vaccination campaigns before elimination is achieved can lead to significant human rabies epidemics if not promptly resumed.

BACKGROUND: Schools are an integral part of the community; however, congregate settings facilitate transmission of SARS-CoV-2, presenting a challenge to school administrators to provide a safe, in-school environment for students and staff. METHODS: We adapted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVIDTracer Advanced tool to model the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a school of 596 individuals. We estimate possible reductions in cases and hospitalizations among this population using a scenario-based analysis that accounts for (a) the risk of importation of infection from the community; (b) adherence to key Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-recommended mitigation strategies: mask wearing, cleaning and disinfection, hand hygiene, and social distancing; and (c) the effectiveness of contact tracing interventions at limiting onward transmission. RESULTS: Low impact and effectiveness of mitigation strategies (net effectiveness: 27%) result in approximately 40% of exposed staff and students becoming COVID-19 cases. When the net effectiveness of mitigation strategies was 69% or greater, in-school transmission was mostly prevented, yet importation of cases from the surrounding community could result in nearly 20% of the school's population becoming infected within 180 days. The combined effects of mitigation strategies and contact tracing were able to prevent most onward transmission. Hospitalizations were low among children and adults (<0.5% of the school population) across all scenarios examined. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our model, layering mitigation strategies and contact tracing can limit the number of cases that may occur from transmission in schools. Schools in communities with substantial levels of community spread will need to be more vigilant to ensure adherence of mitigation strategies to minimize transmission. Our results show that for school administrators, teachers, and parents to provide the safest environment, it is important to utilize multiple mitigation strategies and contract tracing that reduce SARS CoV-2 transmission by at least 69%. This will require training, reinforcement, and vigilance to ensure that the highest level of adherence is maintained over the entire school term.

BACKGROUND: Rabies is a viral zoonosis that imposes a substantial disease and economic burden in many developing countries. Dogs are the primary source of rabies transmission; eliminating dog rabies reduces the risk of exposure in humans significantly. Through mass annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns, the national program of rabies control in Mexico progressively reduced rabies cases in dogs and humans since 1990. In 2019, the World Health Organization validated Mexico for eliminating rabies as a public health problem. Using a governmental perspective, we retrospectively assessed the economic costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the national program of rabies control in Mexico, 1990-2015. METHODOLOGY: Combining various data sources, including administrative records, national statistics, and scientific literature, we retrospectively compared the current scenario of annual dog vaccination campaigns and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with a counterfactual scenario without an annual dog vaccination campaign but including PEP. The counterfactual scenario was estimated using a mathematical model of dog rabies transmission (RabiesEcon). We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the main results. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Results suggest that in 1990 through 2015, the national dog rabies vaccination program in Mexico prevented about 13,000 human rabies deaths, at an incremental cost (MXN 2015) of $4,700 million (USD 300 million). We estimated an average cost of $360,000 (USD 23,000) per human rabies death averted, $6,500 (USD 410) per additional year-of-life, and $3,000 (USD 190) per dog rabies death averted. Results were robust to several counterfactual scenarios, including high and low rabies transmission scenarios and various assumptions about potential costs without mass dog rabies vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSIONS: Annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns have eliminated the transmission of dog-to-dog rabies and dog-mediated human rabies deaths in Mexico. According to World Health Organization standards, our results show that the national program of rabies control in Mexico has been highly cost-effective.

As school districts across the United States consider how to safely operate during the 2020-21 academic year, CDC recommends mitigation strategies that schools can adopt to reduce the risk for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (1). To identify the resources and costs needed to implement school-based mitigation strategies and provide schools and jurisdictions with information to aid resource allocation, a microcosting methodology was employed to estimate costs in three categories: materials and consumables, additional custodial staff members, and potential additional transportation. National average estimates, using the national pre-kindergarten through grade 12 (preK-12) public enrollment of 50,685,567 students, range between a mean of $55 (materials and consumables only) to $442 (all three categories) per student. State-by-state estimates of additional funds needed as a percentage of fiscal year 2018 student expenditures (2) range from an additional 0.3% (materials and consumables only) to 7.1% (all three categories); however, only seven states had a maximum estimate above 4.2%. These estimates, although not exhaustive, highlight the level of resources needed to ensure that schools reopen and remain open in the safest possible manner and offer administrators at schools and school districts and other decision-makers the cost information necessary to budget and prioritize school resources during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Zambia limited access to adequate water and sanitation is a key developmental challenge, particularly for rapidly expanding peri-urban areas. During 20162017, a cross-sectional household survey was conducted among 12,500 households representing ~60,000 individuals to assess the burden of household diarrheal and respiratory disease and to measure water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) characteristics in Lusaka, Zambia. We found that socio-economic factors, including having an additional household member, having children <5 years old in the household, living in a rental home, and higher annual household expenditure were associated with diarrhea and respiratory illness. We also found an increased risk for diarrhea associated with a number of WASH-related factorssuch as not covering all water storage containers, not using soap for handwashing, having an unimproved sanitation facility, and utilizing a heavily shared toilet (18 people). Detectable free chlorine residual in household stored water and more hours of water availability per day were associated with reduced odds of waterborne illness. In all, 75% of household stored water was contaminated with E. coli and households consuming less water (<20 L/day per person) for all purposes had lower odds of diarrhea than households consuming more waterthese findings highlight the need for enhanced WASH services within densely populated peri-urban areas and the importance of achieving universal access to safely managed water and sanitation services.

An estimated 300,000 cases of Lyme disease occur in the United States annually. Disseminated Lyme disease may result in carditis, arthritis, facial palsy or meningitis, sometimes requiring hospitalization. We describe the epidemiology and cost of Lyme disease-related hospitalizations. We analysed 2005-2014 data from the Truven Health Analytics MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Databases to identify inpatient records associated with Lyme disease based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes. We estimated the annual number and median cost of Lyme disease-related hospitalizations in the United States in persons under 65 years of age. Costs were adjusted to reflect 2016 dollars. Of 20,983,165 admission records contained in the inpatient databases during the study period, 2,823 (0.01%) met inclusion criteria for Lyme disease-related hospitalizations. Over half of the identified records contained an ICD-9-CM code for meningitis (n = 614), carditis (n = 429), facial palsy (n = 400) or arthritis (n = 377). Nearly 60% of hospitalized patients were male. The median cost per Lyme disease-related hospitalization was $11,688 (range: $140-$323,613). The manifestation with the highest median cost per stay was carditis ($17,461), followed by meningitis ($15,177), arthritis ($13,012) and facial palsy ($10,491). Median cost was highest among the 15- to 19-year-old age group ($12,991). Admissions occurring in January had the highest median cost ($13,777) for all study years. Based on extrapolation to the U.S. population, we estimate that 2,196 Lyme disease-related hospitalizations in persons under 65 years of age occur annually with an estimated annual cost of $25,826,237. Lyme disease is usually treated in an outpatient setting; however, some patients with Lyme disease require hospitalization, underscoring the need for effective prevention methods to mitigate these serious cases. Information from this analysis can aid economic evaluations of interventions that prevent infection and advances in disease detection.

OBJECTIVES: To aid emergency response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) researchers monitor unplanned school closures (USCs) by conducting online systematic searches (OSS) to identify relevant publicly available reports. We examined the added utility of analyzing Twitter data to improve USC monitoring. METHODS: Georgia public school data were obtained from the National Center for Education Statistics. We identified school and district Twitter accounts with 1 or more tweets ever posted ("active"), and their USC-related tweets in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 school years. CDC researchers provided OSS-identified USC reports. Descriptive statistics, univariate, and multivariable logistic regression were computed. RESULTS: A majority (1,864/2,299) of Georgia public schools had, or were in a district with, active Twitter accounts in 2017. Among these schools, 638 were identified with USCs in 2015-16 (Twitter only, 222; OSS only, 2015; both, 201) and 981 in 2016-17 (Twitter only, 178; OSS only, 107; both, 696). The marginal benefit of adding Twitter as a data source was an increase in the number of schools identified with USCs by 53% (222/416) in 2015-16 and 22% (178/803) in 2016-17. CONCLUSIONS: Policy-makers may wish to consider the potential value of incorporating Twitter into existing USC monitoring systems.