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COVID-10 GPH

Last data update: Nov 04, 2024. (Total: 48056 publications since 2009)
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Query Trace: Mathis SM [original query]
Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations
Mathis SM , Webber AE , León TM , Murray EL , Sun M , White LA , Brooks LC , Green A , Hu AJ , Rosenfeld R , Shemetov D , Tibshirani RJ , McDonald DJ , Kandula S , Pei S , Yaari R , Yamana TK , Shaman J , Agarwal P , Balusu S , Gururajan G , Kamarthi H , Prakash BA , Raman R , Zhao Z , Rodríguez A , Meiyappan A , Omar S , Baccam P , Gurung HL , Suchoski BT , Stage SA , Ajelli M , Kummer AG , Litvinova M , Ventura PC , Wadsworth S , Niemi J , Carcelen E , Hill AL , Loo SL , McKee CD , Sato K , Smith C , Truelove S , Jung SM , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , McAndrew T , Ye W , Bosse N , Hlavacek WS , Lin YT , Mallela A , Gibson GC , Chen Y , Lamm SM , Lee J , Posner RG , Perofsky AC , Viboud C , Clemente L , Lu F , Meyer AG , Santillana M , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Ben-Nun M , Riley P , Turtle J , Hulme-Lowe C , Jessa S , Nagraj VP , Turner SD , Williams D , Basu A , Drake JM , Fox SJ , Suez E , Cojocaru MG , Thommes EW , Cramer EY , Gerding A , Stark A , Ray EL , Reich NG , Shandross L , Wattanachit N , Wang Y , Zorn MW , Aawar MA , Srivastava A , Meyers LA , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis BL , Marathe M , Venkatramanan S , Butler P , Farabow A , Ramakrishnan N , Muralidhar N , Reed C , Biggerstaff M , Borchering RK .
Nat Commun 2024 15 (1) 6289

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2(nd) most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5(th) most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.
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