BACKGROUND: In the United States, 2 doses of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR)-containing vaccines are recommended routinely during childhood; a third dose may be given under certain circumstances. We present observed seroprotection rates and estimate long-term dynamics of measles, mumps, and rubella neutralizing antibody (nAb) levels among 2- and 3-dose MMR (MMR2 and MMR3, respectively) vaccinees. METHODS: Persons who received MMR2 at age 4-12 years or MMR3 at age 18-31 years were enrolled in 1994-1995 and 2009-2010, respectively. Per cohort, sera were collected before vaccination (baseline) and at various intervals ranging from 1 month to 10 years postvaccination to assess nAb levels. Annual changes in nAb levels per virus and cohort were estimated through 10 years postvaccination using generalized estimating equations. Models were stratified by baseline nAb levels. RESULTS: Among MMR2 participants (n = 621), 93.7%, 73.4%, and 83.9% had protective nAb levels against measles, mumps, and rubella, respectively, at the 10-year visit; among MMR3 participants (n = 665), 90.5%, 69.1%, and 100% had protective nAb levels, respectively, at the 9-11-year visit. Estimated nAb levels declined annually across both cohorts, all viruses, and baseline nAb strata, though patterns and magnitude varied. More than one-quarter of participants had mumps nAb levels below the presumed seroprotection threshold at the terminal visits. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that even when MMR antibodies wane, protection against disease is largely retained. Waning of mumps antibodies was greater than for measles and rubella in both 2- and 3-dose vaccinees, likely because a greater proportion failed to mount a robust initial response.

Hepatitis C virus is a leading cause of chronic liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related death and is targeted for global elimination as a public health threat by 2030. Universal screening is recommended for all adults aged ≥18 years and pregnant women during each pregnancy; periodic risk-based screening also is recommended. Persons with current infection should be linked to antiviral treatment, which usually results in a virologic cure within 8-12 weeks. To assess progress toward elimination, epidemiologic trends in newly reported chronic hepatitis C cases were assessed among adult Alaska residents during 2016-2023. Overall, 5,352 confirmed chronic hepatitis C cases were newly reported among adults aged ≥18 years. The average annual rate (cases per 100,000 population) was 121 and decreased a relative 30% from 142 during 2016-2019 to 99 during 2020-2023. Statistically significant decreases occurred for most groups. Groups with higher average rates included males, adults aged 18-39 years, residents of rural areas, and American Indian or Alaska Native persons. Hepatitis C surveillance can help monitor trends in health outcomes and identify groups needing tailored testing and treatment interventions toward hepatitis C elimination.

Public health practitioners rely on timely surveillance data for planning and decision-making; however, surveillance data are often subject to delays. Epidemic trend categories, based on time-varying effective reproductive number (R(t)) estimates that use nowcasting methods, can mitigate reporting lags in surveillance data and detect changes in community transmission before reporting is completed. CDC analyzed the performance of epidemic trend categories for COVID-19 during summer 2024 in the United States and at the state level in New Mexico. COVID-19 epidemic trend categories were estimated and released in real time based on preliminary data, then retrospectively compared with final emergency department (ED) visit data to determine their ability to detect or confirm real-time changes in subsequent ED visits. Across the United States and in New Mexico, epidemic trend categories were an early indicator of increases in COVID-19 community transmission, signifying increases in COVID-19 community transmission in May, and a confirmatory indicator that decreasing COVID-19 ED visits reflected actual decreases in COVID-19 community transmission in September, rather than incomplete reporting. Public health decision-makers can use epidemic trend categories, in combination with other surveillance indicators, to understand whether COVID-19 community transmission and subsequent ED visits are increasing, decreasing, or not changing; this information can guide communications decisions.

Mumps outbreaks among fully vaccinated young adults have raised questions about potential waning of immunity over time and need for a third dose of the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine. However, there are currently limited data on real-life effectiveness of the third-dose MMR vaccine in preventing mumps. Here, we used a deterministic compartmental model to infer the effectiveness of the third-dose MMR vaccine in preventing mumps cases by analyzing the mumps outbreak that occurred at the University of Iowa between August 24, 2015, and May 13, 2016. The modeling approach further allowed us to evaluate the population-level impact of vaccination by different timing in relation to the start of the outbreak and varied coverage levels, and to account for potential sources of bias in estimating vaccine effectiveness. We found large uncertainty in vaccine effectiveness estimates; however, our models showed that early introduction of a third dose of MMR vaccine during a mumps outbreak can be effective in preventing transmission. School holidays, such as the winter break, likely played important roles in preventing mumps transmission.

BACKGROUND: Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) cause pulmonary and extrapulmonary infections. Although isolation of NTM from clinical specimens has increased nationally, few studies delineated the molecular characteristics of extrapulmonary NTM. METHODS: Extrapulmonary isolates were collected by four Emerging Infections Program sites from October 2019 to March 2020 and underwent laboratory characterization, including matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry, Sanger DNA sequencing, and whole genome sequencing. Bioinformatics analyses were employed to identify species, sequence types (STs), antimicrobial resistance (AR), and virulence genes; isolates were further characterized by phylogenetic analyses. RESULTS: Among 45 isolates, the predominant species were Mycobacterium avium (n=20, 44%), Mycobacterium chelonae (n=7, 16%), and Mycobacterium fortuitum (n=6, 13%). The collection represented 31 STs across 10 species; the most common ST was ST11 (M. avium, n=7). Mycobacterium fortuitum and Mycobacterium abscessus isolates harbored multiple genes conferring resistance to aminoglycosides, beta-lactams, and macrolides. No known AR mutations were detected in rpoB, 16S, or 23S rRNAs. Slow-growing NTM species harbored multiple virulence genes including type-VII secretion components, adhesion factors, and phospholipase C. CONCLUSION: Continued active laboratory- and population-based surveillance will further inform the prevalence of NTM species and STs, monitor emerging clones, and allow AR characterization.

INTRODUCTION: Testing for immunity to measles, mumps, and rubella should include only IgG; IgM testing is appropriate only if acute illness is suspected. The appropriateness of measles, mumps, and rubella IgM testing was evaluated in a national administrative dataset. METHODS: Laboratory testing for measles, mumps, and rubella during 2019-2022 was analyzed in 2024 using HealthVerity administrative claims and laboratory data. IgG, IgM, and reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing are described by year, demographics, and region. IgM testing was examined for appropriateness, defined as an IgM test combined with diagnostic codes indicative of acute illness. RESULTS: During 2019-2022, IgM testing represented a small proportion of serologic testing (measles: 3.3%, mumps: 2.4%, rubella: 2.1%) but appeared to be appropriately performed in only 15.4% of cases for measles, 32.8% of cases for mumps, and 10.2% of cases for rubella. IgM testing was more commonly performed for female patients, with the largest discrepancy seen for rubella (90.5% female vs 9.5% male). IgM for measles and mumps was more often performed appropriately for persons aged 0-19 years (37.6% and 60.1%) compared with persons aged 20-49 years (11.8% and 22.0%) and 50+ years (16.5% and 33.8%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of IgM testing for measles, mumps, and rubella during this period appeared inappropriate. Clinicians and health systems could ensure that IgG testing alone is performed when evaluating for immunity through modifications to electronic medical records and commercial laboratories could ensure that providers are able to test for IgG alone when evaluating immunity.

BACKGROUND: This paper highlights recent clinical complications of mumps reported in the United States and summarizes appropriate confirmatory testing for mumps, encouraging vigilance for mumps disease, an endemic vaccine-preventable illness. METHODS: Surveillance data from jurisdictions reporting confirmed and probable cases of mumps in the United States were descriptively analyzed to assess epidemiologic trends from January 1, 2018 - December 31, 2023. Data were reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and the Epidemiology and Laboratory Capacity Project O. Cases were classified according to the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists 2011 mumps case definition. RESULTS: From 2018-2023, United States health departments reported 8,006 confirmed and probable mumps cases to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System, of which 85.4% occurred during January 1, 2018-April 4, 2020 and 14.6% during April 5, 2020-December 31, 2023. The incidence of mumps was highest among those aged 18-24 years during 2018-2020 (maximum of 4.54 cases per 100,000 persons in 2019), and highest among those aged 1-4 years during 2021-2023 (maximum 0.67 per 100,000 persons in 2023). Incidence among all age groups during 2021-2023 remained below levels during 2018-2020. Fewer than 12% of mumps cases were confirmed during 2021-2023, compared to >50% during 2018-2019. CONCLUSIONS: Although incidence has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic, these surveillance data highlight that mumps remains endemic in the United States. Therefore, maintaining high MMR vaccination coverage is essential to prevent future vaccine-preventable outbreaks and minimize severe complications from infection.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, a mumps outbreak occurred in a US military barracks. Serum collected at service entry was used to compare pre-exposure with presumptive vaccine-induced antibody levels from persons who developed mumps (cases) and potentially exposed persons who did not develop mumps (non-cases). Sufficient information to determine levels of exposure during the outbreak was not available. METHODS: Pre-outbreak serum samples from the Department of Defense Serum Repository were available from 254 potentially exposed service members. Twelve developed clinical symptoms and had post-outbreak serum collected. All sera were tested with a mumps-specific enzyme immunoassay for immunoglobulin M, immunoglobulin G (IgG), and IgG avidity. The neutralizing antibodies to vaccine strain (Jeryl Lynn [JL], genotype A) and wildtype virus (genotype G) was assessed by a plaque reduction neutralization test. A Fisher exact test and receiver operator characteristic curve were used to analyze the antibody response for non-cases and mumps cases. RESULTS: Eight mumps cases were laboratory confirmed. Pre-outbreak neutralizing antibody titers to JL and genotype G mumps virus and pre-outbreak IgG index values were proportionately lower for most cases as compared with exposed non-cases. When compared with potentially exposed non-cases, cases with clinical symptoms had greater odds of having a pre-outbreak JL titer <41 and a genotype G titer <16. CONCLUSIONS: We identified potential correlates of protection for mumps neutralizing antibody titers against JL and genotype G mumps viruses.

Multiple factors may influence parental vaccine hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and routine childhood immunizations (RCIs). Using the United States National Immunization Survey-Child COVID Module data collected from parents/guardians of children aged 5-11 years, this cross-sectional study (1) identified the trends and prevalence estimates of parental hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and RCIs, (2) examined the relationship between hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and RCIs, and (3) assessed trends in parental hesitancy towards RCIs by sociodemographic characteristics and behavioral and social drivers of COVID-19 vaccination. From November 2021 to July 2022, 54,329 parents or guardians were interviewed. During this 9-month period, the proportion of parents hesitant about pediatric COVID-19 vaccines increased by 15.8 percentage points (24.8% to 40.6%). Additionally, the proportion of parents who reported RCIs hesitancy increased by 4.7 percentage points from November 2021 to May 2022 but returned to baseline by July 2022. Over nine months, parents' concerns about pediatric COVID-19 infections declined; however, parents were increasingly worried about pediatric COVID-19 vaccine safety and overall importance. Furthermore, pediatric COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was more prevalent among parents of children who were White (43.2%) versus Black (29.3%) or Hispanic (26.9%) and those residing in rural (51.3%) compared to urban (28.9%) areas. In contrast, RCIs hesitancy was higher among parents of children who were Black (32.0%) versus Hispanic (24.5%) or White (23.6%). Pediatric COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was 2-6 times as prevalent among parents who were RCIs hesitant compared to those who were RCIs non-hesitant. This positive correlation between parental hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and RCIs was observed for all demographic and psychosocial factors for unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios. Parent-provider interactions should increase vaccine confidence, shape social norms, and facilitate behavior change to promote pediatric vaccination rates.

Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable disease that can cause severe illness, hospitalization, and death. A measles outbreak associated with a migrant shelter in Chicago occurred during February-April 2024, in which a total of 57 confirmed cases were identified, including 52 among shelter residents, three among staff members, and two among community members with a known link to the shelter. CDC simulated a measles outbreak among shelter residents using a dynamic disease model, updated in real time as additional cases were identified, to produce outbreak forecasts and assess the impact of public health interventions. As of April 8, the model forecasted a median final outbreak size of 58 cases (IQR = 56-60 cases); model fit and prediction range improved as more case data became available. Counterfactual analysis of different intervention scenarios demonstrated the importance of early deployment of public health interventions in Chicago, with a 69% chance of an outbreak of 100 or more cases had there been no mass vaccination or active case-finding compared with only a 1% chance when those interventions were deployed. This analysis highlights the value of using real-time, dynamic models to aid public health response, set expectations about outbreak size and duration, and quantify the impact of interventions. The model shows that prompt mass vaccination and active case-finding likely substantially reduced the chance of a large (100 or more cases) outbreak in Chicago.

Measles is a highly infectious febrile rash illness and was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000. However, measles importations continue to occur, and U.S. measles elimination status was threatened in 2019 as the result of two prolonged outbreaks among undervaccinated communities in New York and New York City. To assess U.S. measles elimination status after the 2019 outbreaks and to provide context to understand more recent increases in measles cases, CDC analyzed epidemiologic and laboratory surveillance data and the performance of the U.S. measles surveillance system after these outbreaks. During January 1, 2020-March 28, 2024, CDC was notified of 338 confirmed measles cases; 97 (29%) of these cases occurred during the first quarter of 2024, representing a more than seventeenfold increase over the mean number of cases reported during the first quarter of 2020-2023. Among the 338 reported cases, the median patient age was 3 years (range = 0-64 years); 309 (91%) patients were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status, and 336 case investigations included information on ≥80% of critical surveillance indicators. During 2020-2023, the longest transmission chain lasted 63 days. As of the end of 2023, because of the absence of sustained measles virus transmission for 12 consecutive months in the presence of a well-performing surveillance system, U.S. measles elimination status was maintained. Risk for widespread U.S. measles transmission remains low because of high population immunity. However, because of the increase in cases during the first quarter of 2024, additional activities are needed to increase U.S. routine measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination coverage, especially among close-knit and undervaccinated communities. These activities include encouraging vaccination before international travel and rapidly investigating suspected measles cases.

In June of 2022, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Mpox Response wanted timely answers to important epidemiological questions which can now be answered more effectively through infectious disease modeling. Infectious disease models have shown to be valuable tools for decision making during outbreaks; however, model complexity often makes communicating the results and limitations of models to decision makers difficult. We performed nowcasting and forecasting for the 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States using the R package EpiNow2. We generated nowcasts/forecasts at the national level, by Census region, and for jurisdictions reporting the greatest number of mpox cases. Modeling results were shared for situational awareness within the CDC Mpox Response and publicly on the CDC website. We retrospectively evaluated forecast predictions at four key phases (early, exponential growth, peak, and decline) during the outbreak using three metrics, the weighted interval score, mean absolute error, and prediction interval coverage. We compared the performance of EpiNow2 with a naïve Bayesian generalized linear model (GLM). The EpiNow2 model had less probabilistic error than the GLM during every outbreak phase except for the early phase. We share our experiences with an existing tool for nowcasting/forecasting and highlight areas of improvement for the development of future tools. We also reflect on lessons learned regarding data quality issues and adapting modeling results for different audiences.

Foodborne illness is a persistent public health concern in the U.S.; over 800 foodborne illness outbreaks are reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) annually. Most of these outbreaks (60%) are linked with restaurants. Contamination of food with foodborne pathogens during preparation and storage is a significant contributing factor to many of these outbreaks. The CDC's Environmental Health Specialists Network (EHS-Net) collected data to identify restaurant characteristics, policies, and practices associated with contamination prevention practices. Data collectors interviewed managers and conducted kitchen observations in 312 restaurants across six EHS-Net sites in five states. Data collectors observed at least one food worker action that could lead to contamination in 63.1% of restaurants. The most frequently observed action that could lead to contamination was bare hand or dirty glove contact with ready-to-eat food (35.9%). The estimated mean number of observed potential contamination actions was greater in restaurants that were independently owned (does not share a name and operations with other restaurants), did not require managers to be certified in food safety, did not have workers trained in food safety, did not have a handwashing policy, did not have a policy minimizing bare-hand contact with ready-to-eat foods, and had a manager with more than two years of experience at their current restaurant. These results suggest that to improve contamination prevention, the foodservice industry and food safety officials can consider supporting and encouraging strong food safety training and policies, particularly concerning hand hygiene, and targeting interventions to independent restaurants.

On November 5, 2022, Columbus Public Health, Ohio and the Ohio Department of Health were notified of two children aged 2 years who were admitted to a central Ohio hospital with rash, fever, cough, and congestion, suggestive of measles. Both children were undergoing medical evaluation and treatment for other etiologies before measles was considered in the differential diagnosis. Neither child had received measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, and neither had known contact with a person with measles. Each patient subsequently received a positive measles real-time reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test result. Neither child had traveled internationally, but during June 12–October 8, 2022, four internationally imported measles cases had been confirmed among unvaccinated Franklin County, Ohio residents who had traveled to areas in East Africa where measles outbreaks were ongoing (1). Investigation of the U.S.-acquired measles cases identified additional measles cases, and local and state health departments confirmed a community outbreak on November 9, 2022. During this community measles outbreak in central Ohio, 85 locally acquired measles cases were confirmed with rash onsets during October 22–December 24, 2022; however, no definitive link to the previous international importations was established. The outbreak was declared over on February 4, 2023, 42 days (two measles incubation periods) after the last reported case.

BACKGROUND: On Aug 29, 2021, Operation Allies Welcome (OAW) was established to support the resettlement of more than 80 000 Afghan evacuees in the USA. After identification of measles among evacuees, incoming evacuee flights were temporarily paused, and mass measles vaccination of evacuees aged 6 months or older was introduced domestically and overseas, with a 21-day quarantine period after vaccination. We aimed to evaluate patterns of measles virus transmission during this outbreak and the impact of control measures. METHODS: We conducted a measles outbreak investigation among Afghan evacuees who were resettled in the USA as part of OAW. Patients with measles were defined as individuals with an acute febrile rash illness between Aug 29, 2021, and Nov 26, 2021, and either laboratory confirmation of infection or epidemiological link to a patient with measles with laboratory confirmation. We analysed the demographics and clinical characteristics of patients with measles and used epidemiological information and whole-genome sequencing to track transmission pathways. A transmission model was used to evaluate the effects of vaccination and other interventions. FINDINGS: 47 people with measles (attack rate: 0·65 per 1000 evacuees) were reported in six US locations housing evacuees in four states. The median age of patients was 1 year (range 0-26); 33 (70%) were younger than 5 years. The age distribution shifted during the outbreak towards infants younger than 12 months. 20 (43%) patients with wild-type measles virus had rash onset after vaccination. No fatalities or community spread were identified, nor further importations after flight resumption. In a non-intervention scenario, transmission models estimated that a median of 5506 cases (IQR 10-5626) could have occurred. Infection clusters based on epidemiological criteria could be delineated into smaller clusters using phylogenetic analyses; however, sequences with few substitution count differences did not always indicate single lines of transmission. INTERPRETATION: Implementation of control measures limited measles transmission during OAW. Our findings highlight the importance of integration between epidemiological and genetic information in discerning between individual lines of transmission in an elimination setting. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In 2022, a case of paralysis was reported in an unvaccinated adult in Rockland County (RC), New York. Genetically linked detections of vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) were reported in multiple New York counties, England, Israel, and Canada. The aims of this qualitative study were to: i) review immediate public health responses in New York to assess the challenges in addressing gaps in vaccination coverage; ii) inform a longer-term strategy to improving vaccination coverage in under-vaccinated communities, and iii) collect data to support comparative evaluations of transnational poliovirus outbreaks. Twenty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted with public health professionals, healthcare professionals, and community partners. Results indicate that i) addressing suboptimal vaccination coverage in RC remains a significant challenge after recent disease outbreaks; ii) the poliovirus outbreak was not unexpected and effort should be invested to engage mothers, the key decision-makers on childhood vaccination; iii) healthcare providers (especially paediatricians) received technical support during the outbreak, and may require resources and guidance to effectively contribute to longer-term vaccine engagement strategies; vi) data systems strengthening is required to help track under-vaccinated children. Public health departments should prioritize long-term investments in appropriate communication strategies, countering misinformation, and promoting the importance of the routine immunization schedule.

Mpox is a zoonotic disease endemic in Central and West Africa. In May 2022, an outbreak of mpox characterized by human-to-human transmission was detected in multiple non-endemic countries. We performed nowcasting and forecasting for the 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States using the R package EpiNow2. We generated nowcasts/forecasts at the national level, by Census region, and for jurisdictions reporting the greatest number of mpox cases. Modeling results were shared for situational awareness within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Mpox Response and publicly on the CDC website. We retrospectively evaluated forecast predictions at four key phases during the outbreak using three metrics, the weighted interval score, mean absolute error, and prediction interval coverage. We compared the performance of EpiNow2 with a naive Bayesian generalized linear model (GLM). The EpiNow2 model had less probabilistic error than the GLM during every outbreak phase except for the early phase. We share our experiences with an existing tool for nowcasting/forecasting and highlight areas of improvement for the development of future tools. We also reflect on lessons learned regarding data quality issues and adapting modeling results for different audiences. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

Using data collected by 12 U.S. health departments, we report mean estimated serial interval for monkeypox virus infection of 8.5 (95% CrI: 7.3 - 9.9) days for symptom onset from 57 case pairs and mean estimated incubation period of 5.6 (4.3 - 7.8) days from 35 case pairs for symptom onset. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease endemic in Central and West Africa. In May 2022, an outbreak of monkeypox characterized by human-to-human transmission was detected in multiple non-endemic countries. We estimated the incubation period for monkeypox using information from 22 probable (N = 1) and confirmed (N = 21) monkeypox cases in patients reported in the United States through June 6, 2022. We pooled U.S. patient data with the data from 18 confirmed cases in patients reported from the Netherlands through May 31, 2022. The mean incubation period from exposure to first symptom onset was 7.6 days (95% credible interval: 6.2 - 9.7), and the 95th percentile was 17.1 days (95% CrI: 12.7-24.3). These findings align with current CDC recommendations for monitoring close contacts of people with monkeypox for 21 days after their last exposure. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

Background and Objectives COVID-19 vaccine was first recommended for children ages 5-11 years on November 2, 2021. This report describes COVID-19 vaccination coverage and parental intent to vaccinate their child ages 5-11 years, overall, by sociodemographic characteristics, and by social and behavioral drivers of vaccination, the fourth month after recommendation. Methods We analyzed data from 5,438 interviews conducted in February 2022 from the National Immunization Survey-Child COVID Module (NIS-CCM), a national random-digit-dial cellular telephone survey of households with children. Results 30.9% of children ages 5-11 were vaccinated with >=1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine, 35.2% were unvaccinated and the parent reported they probably or definitely would get the child vaccinated or were unsure, and 33.9% were unvaccinated and the parent probably or definitely would not get the child vaccinated. Vaccination coverage and parental intent differed by sociodemographic variables, including income, health insurance status, and rurality. Parental intent to vaccinate children also differed by ethnicity and race. Concern about the child getting COVID-19 and confidence in vaccine importance and safety were positively associated with vaccination receipt and intent to get the child vaccinated. Conclusions By the fourth month of the COVID-19 vaccination program for children ages 5-11 years, less than one-third were vaccinated, and coverage was lower for some sociodemographic subgroups. An additional one-third of children had a parent who was open to vaccinating the child. Efforts to address parental concerns regarding vaccine safety and to convey the importance of the vaccine might improve vaccination coverage. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

INTRODUCTION: Focusing on subpopulations that express the intention to receive a COVID-19 vaccination but are unvaccinated may improve the yield of COVID-19 vaccination efforts. METHODS: A nationally representative sample of 789,658 U.S. adults aged 18 years participated in the National Immunization Survey Adult COVID Module from May 2021 to April 2022. The survey assessed respondents' COVID-19 vaccination status and intent by demographic characteristics (age, urbanicity, educational attainment, region, insurance, income, and race/ethnicity). This study compared composition and within-group estimates of those who responded that they definitely or probably will get vaccinated or are unsure (moveable middle) from the first and last month of data collection. RESULTS: Because vaccination uptake increased over the study period, the moveable middle declined among persons aged 18 years. Adults aged 18-39 years and suburban residents comprised most of the moveable middle in April 2022. Groups with the largest moveable middles in April 2022 included persons with no insurance (10%), those aged 18-29 years (8%), and those with incomes below poverty (8%), followed by non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (7%), non-Hispanic multiple or other race (6%), non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons (6%), non-Hispanic Black or African American persons (6%), those with below high school education (6%), those with high school education (5%), and those aged 30-39 years (5%). CONCLUSIONS: A sizable percentage of adults open to receiving COVID-19 vaccination remain in several demographic groups. Emphasizing engagement of persons who are unvaccinated in some racial/ethnic groups, aged 18-39 years, without health insurance, or with lower income may reach more persons open to vaccination.

Using data from 12 US health departments, we estimated mean serial interval for monkeypox virus infection to be 8.5 (95% credible interval 7.3-9.9) days for symptom onset, based on 57 case pairs. Mean estimated incubation period was 5.6 (95% credible interval 4.3-7.8) days for symptom onset, based on 35 case pairs.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 vaccines are safe, effective, and widely available, but many adults in the U.S. have not been vaccinated for COVID-19. This study examined the associations between behavioral and social drivers of vaccination with COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the U.S. adults and their prevalence by region. METHODS: A nationally representative sample of U.S. adults participated in a cross-sectional telephone survey in August-November 2021; the analysis was conducted in January 2022. Survey questions assessed self-reported COVID-19 vaccine initiation, demographics, and behavioral and social drivers of vaccination. RESULTS: Among the 255,763 respondents, 76% received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine. Vaccine uptake was higher among respondents aged ≥75 years (94%), females (78%), and Asian non-Hispanic people (94%). The drivers of vaccination most strongly associated with uptake included higher anticipated regret from nonvaccination, risk perception, and confidence in vaccine safety and importance, followed by work- or school-related vaccination requirements, social norms, and provider recommendation (all p<0.05). The direction of association with uptake varied by reported level of difficulty in accessing vaccines. The prevalence of all of these behavioral and social drivers of vaccination was highest in the Northeast region and lowest in the Midwest and South. CONCLUSIONS: This nationally representative survey found that COVID-19 vaccine uptake was most strongly associated with greater anticipated regret, risk perception, and confidence in vaccine safety and importance, followed by vaccination requirements and social norms. Interventions that leverage these social and behavioral drivers of vaccination have the potential to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake and could be considered for other vaccine introductions.

By the end of 2021, approximately 15% of U.S. adults remained unvaccinated against COVID-19, and vaccination initiation rates had stagnated. We used unsupervised machine learning (K-means clustering) to identify clusters of unvaccinated respondents based on Behavioral and Social Drivers (BeSD) of COVID-19 vaccination and compared these clusters to vaccinated participants to better understand social/behavioral factors of non-vaccination. The National Immunization Survey Adult COVID Module collects data on U.S. adults from September 26-December 31,2021 (=187,756). Among all participants, 51.6% were male, with a mean age of 61years, and the majority were non-Hispanic White (62.2%), followed by Hispanic (17.2%), Black (11.9%), and others (8.7%). K-means clustering procedure was used to classify unvaccinated participants into three clusters based on 9 survey BeSD items, including items assessing COVID-19 risk perception, social norms, vaccine confidence, and practical issues. Among unvaccinated adults (N=23,397), 3 clusters were identified: the "Reachable" (23%), "Less reachable" (27%), and the "Least reachable" (50%). The least reachable cluster reported the lowest concern about COVID-19, mask-wearing behavior, perceived vaccine confidence, and were more likely to be male, non-Hispanic White, with no health conditions, from rural counties, have previously had COVID-19, and have not received a COVID-19 vaccine recommendation from a healthcare provider. This study identified, described, and compared the characteristics of the three unvaccinated subgroups. Public health practitioners, healthcare providers and community leaders can use these characteristics to better tailor messaging for each sub-population. Our findings may also help inform decisionmakers exploring possible policy interventions.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about how the drivers of COVID-19 vaccination vary across the U.S. To inform vaccination outreach efforts, this study explores geographic variation in correlates of COVID-19 nonvaccination among adults. METHODS: Participants were a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults identified through random-digit dialing for the National Immunization Survey-Adult COVID Module. Analyses examined the geographic and temporal landscape of constructs in the Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination Framework among unvaccinated respondents from May 2021 to December 2021 (n=531,798) and sociodemographic and geographic disparities and Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination predictors of COVID-19 nonvaccination from October 2021 to December 2021 (n=187,756). RESULTS: National coverage with at least 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine was 79.3% by December 2021, with substantial geographic heterogeneity. Regions with the largest proportion of unvaccinated persons who would probably get a COVID-19 vaccine or were unsure resided in the Southeast and Midwest (Health and Human Services Regions 4 and 5). Both regions had similar temporal trends regarding concerns about COVID-19 and confidence in vaccine importance, although the Southeast had especially low confidence in vaccine safety in December 2021, lowest in Florida (5.5%) and highest in North Carolina (18.0%). The strongest Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination correlate of not receiving a COVID-19 vaccination was lower confidence in COVID-19 vaccine importance (adjusted prevalence ratio=5.19, 95% CI=4.93, 5.47; strongest in the Northeast, Southwest, and Mountain West and weakest in the Southeast and Midwest). Other Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination correlates also varied by region. CONCLUSIONS: Contributors to nonvaccination showed substantial geographic heterogeneity. Strategies to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake may need to be tailored regionally.

In July 2022, a case of paralytic poliomyelitis resulting from infection with vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) type 2 (VDPV2)(§) was confirmed in an unvaccinated adult resident of Rockland County, New York (1). As of August 10, 2022, poliovirus type 2 (PV2)(¶) genetically linked to this VDPV2 had been detected in wastewater** in Rockland County and neighboring Orange County (1). This report describes the results of additional poliovirus testing of wastewater samples collected during March 9-October 11, 2022, and tested as of October 20, 2022, from 48 sewersheds (the community area served by a wastewater collection system) serving parts of Rockland County and 12 surrounding counties. Among 1,076 wastewater samples collected, 89 (8.3%) from 10 sewersheds tested positive for PV2. As part of a broad epidemiologic investigation, wastewater testing can provide information about where poliovirus might be circulating in a community in which a paralytic case has been identified; however, the most important public health actions for preventing paralytic poliomyelitis in the United States remain ongoing case detection through national acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) surveillance(††) and improving vaccination coverage in undervaccinated communities. Although most persons in the United States are sufficiently immunized, unvaccinated or undervaccinated persons living or working in Kings, Orange, Queens, Rockland, or Sullivan counties, New York should complete the polio vaccination series as soon as possible.

What is already known about this topic? The 2022 monkeypox outbreak is associated with sexual and intimate contact. Survey data suggest that gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM), who have been disproportionately affected, are reducing one-time partnerships. What is added by this report? Modeling of sexual infection transmission between men indicates that one-time partnerships, which account for 3% of daily sexual partnerships and 16% of daily sex acts, account for approximately 50% of daily Monkeypox virus (MPXV) transmission. A 40% reduction in one-time partnerships might delay the spread of monkeypox and reduce the percentage of persons infected by 20% to 31%. What are the implications for public health practice? Reductions in one-time partnerships, already being reported by MSM, might significantly reduce MPXV transmission. © 2022 Department of Health and Human Services. All rights reserved.

On July 18, 2022, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) notified CDC of detection of poliovirus type 2 in stool specimens from an unvaccinated immunocompetent young adult from Rockland County, New York, who was experiencing acute flaccid weakness. The patient initially experienced fever, neck stiffness, gastrointestinal symptoms, and limb weakness. The patient was hospitalized with possible acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). Vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) was detected in stool specimens obtained on days 11 and 12 after initial symptom onset. To date, related Sabin-like type 2 polioviruses have been detected in wastewater* in the patient's county of residence and in neighboring Orange County up to 25 days before (from samples originally collected for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring) and 41 days after the patient's symptom onset. The last U.S. case of polio caused by wild poliovirus occurred in 1979, and the World Health Organization Region of the Americas was declared polio-free in 1994. This report describes the second identification of community transmission of poliovirus in the United States since 1979; the previous instance, in 2005, was a type 1 VDPV (1). The occurrence of this case, combined with the identification of poliovirus in wastewater in neighboring Orange County, underscores the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent paralytic polio in persons of all ages.

Objective: To estimate overall prevalence of bipolar disorder (BD) and the prevalence and timing of bipolar-spectrum mood episodes in perinatal women. Data Sources: Databases (PubMed, Scopus, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane, ClincalTrials.gov) were searched from inception to March 2020. Study Selection: Included studies were original research in English that had (1) populations of perinatal participants (pregnant or within 12 months postpartum), aged ≥ 18 years, and (2) a screening/diagnostic tool for BD. Search terms described the population (eg, perinatal), illness (eg, bipolar disorder), and detection (eg, screen, identify). Data Extraction: Study design data, rates, and timing of positive screens/diagnoses and mood episodes were extracted by 3 independent reviewers. Pooled prevalences were estimated using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Twenty-two articles were included in qualitative review and 12 in the meta-analysis. In women with no known psychiatric illness preceding the perinatal period, pooled prevalence of BD was 2.6% (95% CI, 1.2%-4.5%) and prevalence of bipolar-spectrum mood episodes (including depressed, hypomanic/manic, mixed) during pregnancy and the postpartum period was 20.1% (95% CI, 16.0%-24.5%). In women with a prior BD diagnosis, 54.9% (95% CI, 39.2%-70.2%) were found to have at least one bipolar-spectrum mood episode occurrence in the perinatal period. Conclusions: Our review suggests that the perinatal period is associated with high rates of bipolar-spectrum mood episodes and that pregnant and postpartum women represent a special risk population. This review may help to inform clinical care recommendations, thus helping to identify those who may have.