A U.S. government health agency conducted epidemiological studies to evaluate whether exposures to drinking water contaminated with volatile organic compounds (VOC) at U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, were associated with increased health risks to children and adults. These health studies required knowledge of contaminant concentrations in drinking water-at monthly intervals-delivered to family housing, barracks, and other facilities within the study area. Because concentration data were limited or unavailable during much of the period of contamination (1950s-1985), the historical reconstruction process was used to quantify estimates of monthly mean contaminant-specific concentrations. This paper integrates many efforts, reports, and papers into a synthesis of the overall approach to, and results from, a drinking-water historical reconstruction study. Results show that at the Tarawa Terrace water treatment plant (WTP) reconstructed (simulated) tetrachloroethylene (PCE) concentrations reached a maximum monthly average value of 183 micrograms per liter (g/L) compared to a one-time maximum measured value of 215 g/L and exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's current maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 5 g/L during the period November 1957-February 1987. At the Hadnot Point WTP, reconstructed trichloroethylene (TCE) concentrations reached a maximum monthly average value of 783 g/L compared to a one-time maximum measured value of 1400 g/L during the period August 1953-December 1984. The Hadnot Point WTP also provided contaminated drinking water to the Holcomb Boulevard housing area continuously prior to June 1972, when the Holcomb Boulevard WTP came on line (maximum reconstructed TCE concentration of 32 g/L) and intermittently during the period June 1972-February 1985 (maximum reconstructed TCE concentration of 66 g/L). Applying the historical reconstruction process to quantify contaminant-specific monthly drinking-water concentrations is advantageous for epidemiological studies when compared to using the classical exposed versus unexposed approach.

BACKGROUND: Solvents contaminated drinking water supplies at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune during 1950s-1985. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study among Marines to evaluate associations between residential exposure to contaminated drinking water at Camp Lejeune and male breast cancer risk. The study included 71 male breast cancer cases and 373 controls identified from the Department of Veteran's Affairs (VA) cancer registry whose military personnel records were available. Controls were selected from cancers not known to be associated with solvent exposure and included 270 skin cancers, 71 mesotheliomas, and 32 bone cancers. Base assignment and risk factor information came from military personnel and VA records. Groundwater contaminant fate/transport and distribution system models provided monthly estimated residential contaminant levels. We conducted exact logistic regression using the 50(th) percentile level among exposed controls to create low and high exposure categories. We calculated 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) to indicate precision of effect estimates. Exploratory analyses used proportional hazards methods to evaluate associations between exposures and age at diagnosis. RESULTS: After adjusting for age at diagnosis, race, and service in Vietnam, the odds ratio (OR) for ever stationed at Camp Lejeune was 1.14 (95 % CI: 0.65, 1.97). Adjusted ORs for high residential cumulative exposures to tetrachloroethylene (PCE), t-1,2 dichloroethylene (DCE), and vinyl chloride were 1.20 [95 % CI: 0.16-5.89], 1.50 [95 % CI: 0.30-6.11], 1.19 [95 % CI: 0.16-5.89], respectively, with a monotonic exposure response relationship for PCE only. However these results were based on two or three cases in the high cumulative exposure categories. Ever stationed at Camp Lejeune and high cumulative exposures to trichloroethylene (TCE), PCE, DCE and vinyl chloride were associated with earlier age at onset for male breast cancer; hazard ratios ranged from 1.4-2.7 with wide confidence intervals for cumulative exposure variables. CONCLUSION: Findings suggested possible associations between male breast cancer and being stationed at Camp Lejeune and cumulative exposure to PCE, DCE, and vinyl chloride. TCE, PCE, DCE and vinyl chloride cumulative exposures showed possible associations with earlier age at onset of male breast cancer. However, this study was limited by small numbers of cases in high exposure categories.

BACKGROUND: Births during 1968-1985 at Camp Lejeune were exposed to drinking water contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE), tetrachloroethylene (PCE), and benzene. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate associations between residential prenatal exposure to contaminated drinking water at Camp Lejeune during 1968-1985 and preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), term low birth weight (TLBW), and mean birth weight (MBW) deficit. Birth certificates identified mothers residing at Camp Lejeune at delivery. We analyzed exposure data for the entire pregnancy and individual trimesters. For each period examined, births were categorized as unexposed if mothers did not reside at Camp Lejeune or if their residence on base received uncontaminated drinking water. Ground water contaminant fate/transport and distribution system models provided monthly estimated contaminant levels at residences. For PCE and TCE, the exposed group was divided into four levels: < median value, ≥ median value, ≥75th percentile, and ≥90th percentile. For benzene, the exposed group was categorized as <1 part per billion (ppb) versus ≥1 ppb because of sparse data. Magnitude of effect estimates and exposure response relationships were used to assess associations. Confidence intervals (CIs) indicated precision of estimates. RESULTS: For the highest TCE exposure category during the entire pregnancy, odds ratios (ORs) were 1.5 (95% CI: 1.2, 1.9) and 1.3 (95% CI: 0.8, 2.2) for SGA and TLBW, respectively, and reduced MBW beta = -78.3 g (95% CI: -115.0, -41.7). The OR =1.3 (95% CI: 1.0, 1.6) for preterm birth and the highest PCE exposure category during the entire pregnancy. Monotonic exposure-response relationships were observed for benzene exposure during the entire pregnancy and TLBW (highest category OR =1.5, 85% CI: 0.9, 2.3). Although a monotonic association between benzene and adjusted MBW difference was also observed (highest category beta = -36.2 g, 95% CI: -72.3, -0.1), the association disappeared when TCE was also added to the model. We found no evidence suggesting any other associations between outcomes and exposures. CONCLUSION: Findings suggested associations between in utero exposures to TCE and SGA, TLBW and reduced MBW; benzene and TLBW; and PCE and preterm birth.

BACKGROUND: Two drinking water systems at U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina were contaminated with solvents during 1950s-1985. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort mortality study of 4,647 civilian, full-time workers employed at Camp Lejeune during 1973-1985 and potentially exposed to contaminated drinking water. We selected a comparison cohort of 4,690 Camp Pendleton workers employed during 1973-1985 and unexposed to contaminated drinking water. Mortality follow-up period was 1979-2008. Cause-specific standardized mortality ratios utilized U.S. age-, sex-, race-, and calendar period-specific mortality rates as reference. We used survival analysis to compare mortality rates between Camp Lejeune and Camp Pendleton workers and assess the effects of estimated cumulative contaminant exposures within the Camp Lejeune cohort. Ground water contaminant fate/transport and distribution system models provided monthly estimated contaminant levels in drinking water serving workplaces at Camp Lejeune. The confidence interval (CI) indicated precision of effect estimates. RESULTS: Compared to Camp Pendleton, Camp Lejeune workers had mortality hazard ratios (HRs) >1.50 for kidney cancer (HR = 1.92, 95% CI: 0.58, 6.34), leukemias (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 0.66, 3.84), multiple myeloma (HR = 1.84, 95% CI: 0.45, 7.58), rectal cancer (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 0.36, 7.44), oral cavity cancers (HR = 1.93, 95% CI: 0.34, 10.81), and Parkinson's disease (HR = 3.13, 95% CI: 0.76, 12.81). Within the Camp Lejeune cohort, monotonic exposure-response relationships were observed for leukemia and vinyl chloride and PCE, with mortality HRs at the high exposure category of 1.72 (95% CI: 0.33, 8.83) and 1.82 (95% CI: 0.36, 9.32), respectively. Cumulative exposures were above the median for most deaths from cancers of the kidney, esophagus, rectum, prostate, and Parkinson's disease, but small numbers precluded evaluation of exposure-response relationships. CONCLUSION: The study found elevated HRs in the Camp Lejeune cohort for several causes of death including cancers of the kidney, rectum, oral cavity, leukemias, multiple myeloma, and Parkinson's disease. Only 14% of the Camp Lejeune cohort died by end of follow-up, producing small numbers of cause-specific deaths and wide CIs. Additional follow-up would be necessary to comprehensively assess drinking water exposure effects at the base.

BACKGROUND: Two drinking water systems at U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina were contaminated with solvents during 1950s-1985. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort mortality study of Marine and Naval personnel who began service during 1975-1985 and were stationed at Camp Lejeune or Camp Pendleton, California during this period. Camp Pendleton's drinking water was uncontaminated. Mortality follow-up was 1979-2008. Standardized Mortality Ratios were calculated using U.S. mortality rates as reference. We used survival analysis to compare mortality rates between Camp Lejeune (N = 154,932) and Camp Pendleton (N = 154,969) cohorts and assess effects of cumulative exposures to contaminants within the Camp Lejeune cohort. Models estimated monthly contaminant levels at residences. Confidence intervals (CIs) indicated precision of effect estimates. RESULTS: There were 8,964 and 9,365 deaths respectively, in the Camp Lejeune and Camp Pendleton cohorts. Compared to Camp Pendleton, Camp Lejeune had elevated mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for all cancers (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.20), kidney cancer (HR = 1.35, 95% CI: 0.84, 2.16), liver cancer (HR = 1.42, 95% CI: 0.92, 2.20), esophageal cancer (HR = 1.43 95% CI: 0.85, 2.38), cervical cancer (HR = 1.33, 95% CI: 0.24, 7.32), Hodgkin lymphoma (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 0.71, 3.06), and multiple myeloma (HR = 1.68, 95% CI: 0.76, 3.72). Within the Camp Lejeune cohort, monotonic categorical cumulative exposure trends were observed for kidney cancer and total contaminants (HR, high cumulative exposure = 1.54, 95% CI: 0.63, 3.75; log10 beta = 0.06, 95% CI: -0.05, 0.17), Hodgkin lymphoma and trichloroethylene (HR, high cumulative exposure = 1.97, 95% CI: 0.55, 7.03; beta = 0.00005, 95% CI: -0.00003, 0.00013) and benzene (HR, high cumulative exposure = 1.94, 95% CI: 0.54, 6.95; beta = 0.00203, 95% CI: -0.00339, 0.00745). Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) had HR = 2.21 (95% CI: 0.71, 6.86) at high cumulative vinyl chloride exposure but a non-monotonic exposure-response relationship (beta = 0.0011, 95% CI: 0.0002, 0.0020). CONCLUSION: The study found elevated HRs at Camp Lejeune for several causes of death including cancers of the kidney, liver, esophagus, cervix, multiple myeloma, Hodgkin lymphoma and ALS. CIs were wide for most HRs. Because <6% of the cohort had died, long-term follow-up would be necessary to comprehensively assess effects of drinking water exposures at the base.

BACKGROUND: Drinking water supplies at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune were contaminated with trichloroethylene, tetrachloroethylene, benzene, vinyl chloride and trans-1,2-dichloroethylene during 1968 through 1985. METHODS: We conducted a case control study to determine if children born during 1968-1985 to mothers with residential exposure to contaminated drinking water at Camp Lejeune during pregnancy were more likely to have childhood hematopoietic cancers, neural tube defects (NTDs), or oral clefts. For cancers, exposures during the first year of life were also evaluated. Cases and controls were identified through a survey of parents residing on base during pregnancy and confirmed by medical records. Controls were randomly sampled from surveyed participants who had a live birth without a major birth defect or childhood cancer. Groundwater contaminant fate and transport and distribution system models provided estimates of monthly levels of drinking water contaminants at mothers' residences. Magnitude of odds ratios (ORs) was used to assess associations. Confidence intervals (CIs) were used to indicate precision of ORs. We evaluated parental characteristics and pregnancy history to assess potential confounding. RESULTS: Confounding was negligible so unadjusted results were presented. For NTDs and average 1st trimester exposures, ORs for any benzene exposure and for trichloroethylene above 5 parts per billion were 4.1 (95% CI: 1.4-12.0) and 2.4 (95% CI: 0.6-9.6), respectively. For trichloroethylene, a monotonic exposure response relationship was observed. For childhood cancers and average 1st trimester exposures, ORs for any tetrachloroethylene exposure and any vinyl chloride exposure were 1.6 (95% CI: 0.5-4.8), and 1.6 (95% CI: 0.5-4.7), respectively. The study found no evidence suggesting any other associations between outcomes and exposures. CONCLUSION: Although CIs were wide, ORs suggested associations between drinking water contaminants and NTDs. ORs suggested weaker associations with childhood hematopoietic cancers.

In a recent article, TP Clement (2010, hereafter referred to as TPC) discusses the complexities and limitations of "hindcasting" models and criticizes the use of complex models when undertaking investigations of subsurface reactive transport processes. TPC implies that complex numerical models that stimulate reactive transport processes in groundwater are likely if not always an inappropriate tool to apply to "hindcasting" investiagtions and that scientists and engineers who implement these investiagtions using such models are somehow not aware of teh technical and scientific complexities and limitations of such methods and approaches. To illustrate his point of view, TPC uses a case study of an ongoing health study of exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water at US Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina (hereafter referred to as the case-control health study at Camp Lejeune). The article presents some thought-provoking points-of-view. However, we believe there is a lack of detail on several key issues that require specificity and clarification, particularly with respect to modleing approaches and methods, the physics of containment occurrence and reactive transport in teh subsurface, and agency policies for the review and dissemination of data and reports.

Analytical models, when used in stochastic analysis mode, may provide an effective tool for making informed management decisions for simplified environmental systems. This approach was used to evaluate migration of an organochlorine pesticide plume in a shallow, unconfined aquifer underlying a barrier island in coastal Georgia, USA. The contaminant plume at the site consists of four isomers of benzene hexachloride (BHC), also known as hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH). The deterministic analysis conducted at the site, which used calibrated, single-value input parameters, indicates that the contaminant plume will not reach wetlands that are downgradient of the source. Given the uncertainties involved in the deterministic analysis, this outcome was not considered to be sufficient to make effective management decisions at the site. Subsequently, probabilistic analysis using a range of input parameter values was conducted to estimate the risk that the pesticide plume would reach the downgradient wetlands. The two-stage Monte Carlo analysis that was conducted indicates the probability that contaminant levels will exceed the detection limit of BHC (0.044 micrograms per liter) at the wetlands increases from 1 percent to a maximum of 13 percent during the period 2005-2065. This represents an 87% or greater confidence level that the pesticide plume will not reach the wetlands. This outcome was used to inform environmental management decisions at the site. The modeling analysis was conducted using the publicly available analytical contaminant transport analysis system (ACTS) software.

Two of three water-distribution systems that have historically supplied drinking water to family housing at U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, were contaminated with volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Scientific data relating to the harmful effects of VOCs on a child or fetus are limited. Therefore, the U.S. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) is conducting an epidemiological study to evaluate potential associations between in utero and infant (up to 1 year of age) exposures to VOCs in contaminated drinking water at Camp Lejeune and specific birth defects and childhood cancers. The study includes births that occurred during the period 1968-1985 to women who were pregnant while they resided in family housing at Camp Lejeune. To support the epidemiological study, water-modeling techniques are being used to reconstruct historical conditions of groundwater flow, contaminant fate and transport, and the distribution of drinking water contaminated with VOCs. Results for this phase of the study indicate that PCE concentrations in drinking water, delivered to the Tarawa Terrace housing area, exceeded the current maximum contaminant level for PCE of 5 micrograms per liter (µg/L) for 346 months-November 1957-February 1987; the maximum simulated PCE concentration in Tarawa Terrace drinking water was 183 µg/L during March 1984 compared to a measured concentration of 215 µg/L during February 1985.