Last data update: Nov 04, 2024. (Total: 48056 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 175 Records) |
Query Trace: Marshall B[original query] |
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The role and limitations of electronic medical records versus patient interviews for determining symptoms, underlying comorbidities, and medication usage for patients with COVID-19
Soto RA , Vahey GM , Marshall KE , McDonald E , Herlihy R , Chun HM , Killerby ME , Kawasaki B , Midgley CM , Alden NB , Tate JE , Staples JE , Team CI . Am J Epidemiol 2024 193 (10) 1442-1450 Electronic medical records (EMRs) are important for rapidly compiling information to determine disease characteristics (eg, symptoms) and risk factors (eg, underlying comorbidities, medications) for disease-related outcomes. To assess EMR data accuracy, agreement between EMR abstractions and patient interviews was evaluated. Symptoms, medical history, and medication use among patients with COVID-19 collected from EMRs and patient interviews were compared using overall agreement (ie, same answer in EMR and interview), reported agreement (yes answer in both EMR and interview among those who reported yes in either), and κ statistics. Overall, patients reported more symptoms in interviews than in EMR abstractions. Overall agreement was high (≥50% for 20 of 23 symptoms), but only subjective fever and dyspnea had reported agreement of ≥50%. The κ statistics for symptoms were generally low. Reported medical conditions had greater agreement with all condition categories (n = 10 of 10) having ≥50% overall agreement and half (n = 5 of 10) having ≥50% reported agreement. More nonprescription medications were reported in interviews than in EMR abstractions, leading to low reported agreement (28%). Discordance was observed for symptoms, medical history, and medication use between EMR abstractions and patient interviews. Investigations using EMRs to describe clinical characteristics and identify risk factors should consider the potential for incomplete data, particularly for symptoms and medications. |
Cervical cancer incidence in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands
Gopalani SV , Qin J , Baksa J , Thompson TD , Saraiya M , Senkomago V , Pordell P , Jeong Y , Palafox NA , Reichhardt M , Buenconsejo-Lum LE . JAMA Oncol 2024 IMPORTANCE: The World Health Organization has called for eliminating cervical cancer as a public health problem. Accurate and up-to-date estimates of population-based cervical cancer incidence are essential for monitoring progress toward elimination and informing local cancer control strategies, but these estimates are lacking for the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-standardized incidence rates for cervical cancer in the 6 USAPI and compare these rates with rates in the US (50 states and the District of Columbia). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study used population-based data from the Pacific Regional Central Cancer Registry for women aged 20 years or older who were diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020. The registry comprises data on all cervical cancers from the USAPI, which include 3 US territories (American Samoa, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam) and 3 freely associated states (Federated States of Micronesia [FSM], Republic of the Marshall Islands [RMI], and Republic of Palau). Data were analyzed from July 10, 2023, to November 28, 2023. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was age-standardized cervical cancer incidence rates, stratified by age, stage, and histologic code for the USAPI using population estimates from 3 different sources (US Census Bureau International Database, United Nations Population Division, and Pacific Data Hub). Rate ratios were calculated to compare incidence rates between the USAPI and the US. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2020, 409 cases of cervical cancer were diagnosed in the USAPI (median age at diagnosis, 46.0 years [25th-75th percentile, 39.0-55.0 years]), with an age-standardized incidence rate ranging from 21.7 (95% CI, 19.6-23.9) to 22.1 (95% CI, 20.0-24.4) per 100 000 women, depending on the population estimate. Incidence rates were highest in RMI, ranging from 58.1 (95% CI, 48.0-69.7) to 83.4 (95% CI, 68.3-101.0) per 100 000 women, followed by FSM, ranging from 28.7 (95% CI, 23.4-34.9) to 29.8 (95% CI, 24.3-36.3) per 100 000 women. Compared with the US, incidence rates were highest in RMI (rate ratio, 5.7 [95% CI, 4.7-6.8] to 8.2 [95% CI, 6.7-9.9]) and FSM (rate ratio; 2.8; 95% CI, 2.3-3.4). Of all cases in the USAPI, 213 (68.2%) were diagnosed at a late stage. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study, cervical cancer remained a major public health issue in some USAPI, with RMI reporting the highest incidence rates. The findings suggest that improvements in human papillomavirus vaccination and cancer screening coverage through efforts tailored to the unique geographic, sociocultural, economic, and health care landscape of the USAPI may reduce the burden of cervical cancer. |
Perspectives on a peer-driven intervention to promote pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake among men who have sex with men in southern New England: a qualitative study
Tao J , Parent H , Karki I , Martin H , Marshall SA , Kapadia J , Nunn AS , Marshall BDL , Raymond HF , Mena L , Chan PA . BMC Health Serv Res 2024 24 (1) 1023 BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effective pharmaceutical intervention that prevents HIV infection, but PrEP uptake across the US has been slow among men who have sex with men (MSM), especially among Black/African American (B/AA) and Hispanic /Latino (H/L) MSM. This study investigates the acceptability and essential components of a peer-driven intervention (PDI) for promoting PrEP uptake among MSM, with a specific focus on B/AA and H/L communities. METHODS: We conducted 28 semi-structured, qualitative interviews with MSM in southern New England to explore the components of a PDI, including attitudes, content, and effective communication methods. A purposive sampling strategy was used to recruit diverse participants who reflect the communities with the highest burden of HIV infection. RESULTS: Of 28 study participants, the median age was 28 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 25, 35). The sample comprised B/AA (39%, n = 11) and H/L (50%, n = 14) individuals. Notably, nearly half of the participants (46%) were current PrEP users. We found that many participants were in favor of using a PDI approach for promoting PrEP. Additionally, several participants showed interest in becoming peer educators themselves. They emphasized the need for strong communication skills to effectively teach others about PrEP. Moreover, participants noted that peer education should cover key topics like how PrEP works, how effective it is, and any possible side effects. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that effective PDIs, facilitated by well-trained peers knowledgeable about PrEP, could enhance PrEP uptake among MSM, addressing health disparities and potentially reducing HIV transmission in B/AA and H/L communities. |
An approach to describe Salmonella serotypes of concern for outbreaks: Using burden and trajectory of outbreak-related illnesses associated with meat and poultry
Marshall KE , Cui Z , Gleason BL , Hartley C , Wise ME , Bruce BB , Griffin PM . J Food Prot 2024 100331 Over 40% of all U.S. Salmonella illnesses are attributed to consumption of contaminated meat and poultry products each year. Determining which serotypes cause the most outbreak illnesses associated with specific meat and poultry types can inform prevention measures. We developed an approach to categorize serotypes using outbreak illness burden (high, moderate, low) and trajectory (increased, stable, decreased). We used data from 192 foodborne Salmonella outbreaks resulting in 7,077 illnesses, 1,330 hospitalizations, and 9 deaths associated with chicken, turkey, beef, or pork during 2012-2021. We linked each meat and poultry type to 1-3 serotypes that we categorized high outbreak illness burden and increased trajectory during 2021. Calculation and public display of outbreak illness burden and trajectory annually could facilitate prioritization of serotypes for prevention by federal and state health and regulatory agencies and by the meat and poultry industry. |
Malpresentation and autism spectrum disorder in the study to explore early development
Zhang Y , Delahanty MT , Engel SM , Marshall S , O'Shea TM , Garcia T , Schieve LA , Bradley C , Daniels JL . Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol 2024 Background: An infant's presentation at delivery may be an early indicator of developmental differences. Non-vertex presentation (malpresentation) complicates delivery and often leads to caesarean section, which has been associated with neurodevelopmental delays, including autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, malpresentation could be an early sign of an existing developmental problem that is also an upstream factor from caesarean delivery. Little research has been done to investigate the association between malpresentation and ASD. Objectives: We examine the association between malpresentation at delivery and ASD and whether this association differs by gestational age. Methods: We used data from the Study to Explore Early Development (SEED), a multi-site, case–control study of children with ASD compared to population controls. The foetal presentation was determined using medical records, birth records and maternal interviews. We defined malpresentation as a non-vertex presentation at delivery, then further categorised into breech and other malpresentation. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for the association between malpresentation and ASD. Results: We included 4047 SEED participants, 1873 children with ASD and 2174 controls. At delivery, most infants presented vertex (n = 3760, 92.9%). Malpresentation was associated with higher odds of ASD (aOR 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02, 1.68) after adjustment for maternal age, poverty level, hypertensive disorder and smoking. The association was similar for breech and other types of malpresentation (aOR 1.28, 95% CI 0.97, 1.70 and aOR 1.40, 95% CI 0.87, 2.26, respectively) and did not differ markedly by gestational age. Conclusions: Malpresentation at delivery was modestly associated with ASD. Early monitoring of the neurodevelopment of children born with malpresentation could identify children with ASD sooner and enhance opportunities to provide support to optimise developmental outcomes. © 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
Vaccine value profile for herpes simplex virus
Johnston C , Scheele S , Bachmann L , Boily MC , Chaiyakunapruk N , Deal C , Delany-Moretlwe S , Lee S , Looker K , Marshall C , Mello MB , Ndowa F , Gottlieb S . Vaccine 2024 Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and type 2 (HSV-2) are chronic, highly prevalent viral infections that cause significant morbidity around the world. HSV-2 is sexually transmitted and is the leading cause of genital ulcer disease (GUD). It also increases the risk of HIV acquisition, fueling the HIV epidemic. HSV-1 is typically acquired in childhood through nonsexual contact and contributes to oral and ocular disease, but it can also be sexually transmitted to cause GUD. Both HSV-1 and HSV-2 cause neonatal herpes and neurologic disease. Given the ubiquitous nature of HSV-1 and HSV-2 infections and the limited existing prevention and control measures, vaccination would be the most efficient strategy to reduce the global burden of morbidity related to HSV infection. Vaccine strategies include prophylactic vaccination, which would prevent infection among susceptible persons and would likely be given to adolescents, and therapeutic vaccinations, which would be given to people with symptomatic genital HSV-2 infection. This document discusses the vaccine value profile of both types of vaccines. This ‘Vaccine Value Profile’ (VVP) for HSV is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, government agencies and multi-lateral organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the HSV VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information. © 2024 The Authors |
Systematic screening and assessment of hospital-based youth violence prevention programs
Piervil E , Wong L , Marshall KJ , Earl T , Leonard S , Waajid M , Jones T , Katapodis N , Marbach A , Schneiderman S , Bartholow B . Health Promot Pract 2024 15248399241255375 Youth violence is a preventable public health issue. Few hospital-based programs intentionally focus on youth violence prevention. This project aimed to describe the Systematic Screening and Assessment (SSA) methodology used to identify existing hospital-based youth violence prevention (HBYVP) programs ready for future rigorous evaluation. To identify promising HBYVP programs currently in use and assess readiness for evaluation, data from the 2017 American Hospital Association (AHA) Annual Survey of Hospitals was used to identify hospitals with Level I-III trauma centers with reported HBYVP programs. Information for each program was gathered via environmental scan and key informant interviews. A total of 383 hospital-based violence prevention programs were identified. Two review panels were conducted with violence prevention experts to identify characteristics of programs suitable for an evaluability assessment (EA). Fifteen programs focused on youth (10-24 years old) and were identified to be promising and evaluable. Three of the 15 programs were determined to have the infrastructure and readiness necessary for rigorous evaluation. Lessons learned and best practices for SSA project success included use of streamlined outreach efforts that provide program staff with informative and culturally tailored project materials outlining information about the problem, project goals, proposed SSA activities, and altruistic benefit to the community at the initial point of contact. In addition, success of review panels was attributed to use of software to streamline panelist review processes and use of evaluation and data analysis subject matter experts to serve as panel facilitators. Communities experiencing high youth violence burden and hospitals serving these communities can improve health outcomes among youth by implementing and evaluating tailored HBYVP programs. |
Preventing Chronic Disease Collection: From Data to Action: National, state, and local efforts to end menthol and other flavored commercial tobacco product use
Marshall LL , Norman L , Rose SW , Tseng TS . Prev Chronic Dis 2024 21 E39 |
The National and State Tobacco Control Program: Overview of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's efforts to address commercial tobacco use
Marshall L , Pasalic E , Mahoney M , Turner T , Sneegas K , Kittner DL . Prev Chronic Dis 2024 21 E38 |
Comparing individual and community-level characteristics of people with ground beef-associated salmonellosis and other ground beef eaters: a case-control analysis
Salah Z , Canning M , Rickless D , Devine C , Buckman R , Payne DC , Marshall KE . J Food Prot 2024 100303 Salmonella is estimated to be the leading bacterial cause of U.S. domestically-acquired foodborne illness. Large outbreaks of Salmonella attributed to ground beef have been reported in recent years. The demographic and sociodemographic characteristics of infected individuals linked to these outbreaks are poorly understood. We employed a retrospective case-control design; case-patients were people with laboratory-confirmed Salmonella infections linked to ground beef-associated outbreaks between 2012-2019, and controls were respondents to the 2018-2019 FoodNet Population Survey who reported eating ground beef and denied recent gastrointestinal illness. We used county-level CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) to compare case-patient and controls. Case-patient status was regressed on county-level social vulnerability and individual-level demographic characteristics. We identified 376 case-patients and 1,321 controls in the FoodNet sites. Being a case-patient was associated with increased overall county-level social vulnerability (OR: 1.21 [95% CI: 1.07-1.36]) and socioeconomic vulnerability (OR: 1.24 [1.05-1.47]) when adjusted for individual-level demographics. Case-patient status was not strongly associated with the other SVI themes of household composition and disability, minority status and language, and housing type and transportation. Data on individual-level factors such as income, poverty, unemployment, and education could facilitate further analyses to understand this relationship. |
Foodborne disease outbreaks linked to foods eligible for irradiation, United States, 2009-2020
Zlotnick M , Eisenstein T , Robyn MP , Marshall KE . Emerg Infect Dis 2024 30 (6) 1291-1293 Food irradiation can reduce foodborne illnesses but is rarely used in the United States. We determined whether outbreaks related to Campylobacter, Salmonella, Escherichia coli, and Listeria monocytogenes were linked to irradiation-eligible foods. Of 482 outbreaks, 155 (32.2%) were linked to an irradiation-eligible food, none of which were known to be irradiated. |
Coxiella burnetii in domestic doe goats in the United States, 2019-2020
Miller HK , Branan M , Priestley RA , Álvarez-Alonso R , Cherry C , Smith C , Urie NJ , Wiedenheft A , Bliss C , Marshall K , Kersh GJ . Front Vet Sci 2024 11 1393296 Coxiella burnetii is a bacterial pathogen capable of causing serious disease in humans and abortions in goats. Infected goats can shed C. burnetii through urine, feces, and parturient byproducts, which can lead to infections in humans when the bacteria are inhaled. Goats are important C. burnetii reservoirs as evidenced by goat-related outbreaks across the world. To better understand the current landscape of C. burnetii infection in the domestic goat population, 4,121 vaginal swabs from 388 operations across the United States were analyzed for the presence of C. burnetii by IS1111 PCR as part of the United States Department of Agriculture, Animal Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services' National Animal Health Monitoring System Goats 2019 Study. In total, 1.5% (61/4121) of swabs representing 10.3% (40/388) (weighted estimate of 7.8, 95% CI 4.4-13.5) of operations were positive for C. burnetii DNA. The quantity of C. burnetii on positive swabs was low with an average Ct of 37.9. Factors associated with greater odds of testing positive included suspected Q fever in the herd in the previous 3 years, the presence of wild deer or elk on the operation, and the utilization of hormones for estrus synchronization. Factors associated with reduced odds of testing positive include the presence of kittens and treatment of herds with high tannin concentrate plants, diatomaceous earth, and tetrahydropyrimidines. In vitro analysis demonstrated an inhibitory effect of the tetrahydropyrimidine, pyrantel pamoate, on the growth of C. burnetii in axenic media as low as 1 μg per mL. The final multivariable logistic regression modeling identified the presence of wild predators on the operation or adjacent property (OR = 9.0, 95% CI 1.3-61.6, p value = 0.0248) as a risk factor for C. burnetii infection. |
Examining age and food irradiation knowledge as influential factors on the purchase of irradiated foods: United States, August 2022
Crawford TN , Ablan M , Canning M , Marshall KE , Robyn M . Food Prot Trends 2024 44 (3) 189-194 Foodborne illness affects approximately 48 million Americans annually. Food irradiation is a safe and effective way to kill bacteria and extend a product’s shelf life. However, challenges to wider implementation of this technology include consumer hesitancy stemming from misconceptions about safety and lack of knowledge of irradiation’s benefits. Research has shown that consumers are more willing to accept irradiation if informed about its safety. Because of increases in multistate foodborne outbreaks and consumers’ growing concern about and expectation of food safety, it is an opportune time to reconsider irradiation as a food safety tool. Consumer attitudes toward food safety differ by demographic characteristics; however, research on the association of demographic factors with attitudes on food irradiation are limited. Data collected from a survey (n = 1,009) conducted in August 2022 were analyzed to describe the relationship between age and food irradiation knowledge as influential factors to purchase irradiated foods. More than half (56%) of respondents reported that learning more about irradiation would likely influence purchasing decisions, and older adults were more knowledgeable about food irradiation. These findings suggest that age could be an important factor to consider when tailoring messaging as a prevention strategy around the benefits of food irradiation. © 2024, International Association for Food Protection. All rights reserved. |
Challenges of COVID-19 case forecasting in the US, 2020-2021
Lopez VK , Cramer EY , Pagano R , Drake JM , O'Dea EB , Adee M , Ayer T , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller PP , Xiao J , Bracher J , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Ray EL , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Pei S , Shaman J , Yamana TK , Tarasewicz SR , Wilson DJ , Baccam S , Gurung H , Stage S , Suchoski B , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang L , Wang Y , Yu S , Gardner L , Jindal S , Marshall M , Nixon K , Dent J , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Smith CP , Truelove S , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Karlen D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Osthus D , Bian J , Cao W , Gao Z , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Walraven R , Chen J , Gu Q , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Gibson GC , Sheldon D , Srivastava A , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis B , Marathe M , Peddireddy AS , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Wang L , Prasad PV , Walker JW , Webber AE , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG , Johansson MA . PLoS Comput Biol 2024 20 (5) e1011200 During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making. |
Lessons learned from public health and state prison collaborations during COVID-19 pandemic and multifacility tuberculosis outbreak, Washington, USA
Gurrey SO , Strick LB , Dov LK , Miller JS , Pecha M , Stalter RM , Miller DL , Marshall B , Salazar AP , Newman LP . Emerg Infect Dis 2024 30 (13) S17-s20 The large COVID-19 outbreaks in prisons in the Washington (USA) State Department of Corrections (WADOC) system during 2020 highlighted the need for a new public health approach to prevent and control COVID-19 transmission in the system's 12 facilities. WADOC and the Washington State Department of Health (WADOH) responded by strengthening partnerships through dedicated corrections-focused public health staff, improving cross-agency outbreak response coordination, implementing and developing corrections-specific public health guidance, and establishing collaborative data systems. The preexisting partnerships and trust between WADOC and WADOH, strengthened during the COVID-19 response, laid the foundation for a collaborative response during late 2021 to the largest tuberculosis outbreak in Washington State in the past 20 years. We describe challenges of a multiagency collaboration during 2 outbreak responses, as well as approaches to address those challenges, and share lessons learned for future communicable disease outbreak responses in correctional settings. |
A Qualitative Evaluation of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Risk Communication Methods during Multistate Foodborne Outbreaks
Ablan M , McFadden K , Jhung M , Sood NJ , Dowell N , Marshall KE , Hakobyan L , Sugovic M , Whitlock L , Robyn M . Food Prot Trends 12/28/2021 41 (6) 547-554 Many efforts across the farm-to-fork continuum aim to reduce foodborne disease and outbreaks. Real-time risk communication is an important component of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) efforts, especially during outbreaks. To inform risk communication with the public during multistate foodborne outbreaks, we conducted a series of focus groups of adults in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area to understand attitudes, perceptions, behaviors, and how people receive information around foodborne disease outbreaks. Results from these focus groups provided insight on factors that might influence consumer perception and behavior during an outbreak. Perceived outbreak proximity and personal consumption of an outbreak vehicle were identified as also reported hearing about multiple outbreaks per year some drivers of perceived risk to an outbreak. Participants through a variety of sources and following recommended actions during an outbreak, implying some existing penetration of current risk messages for multistate foodborne outbreaks. Findings from these focus groups are a first step in increasing understanding of how CDC messages affect the consumers' ability to access and act upon reliable information to protect their health during outbreaks and serve as a baseline for further evaluation efforts of CDC risk communication strategy for multistate foodborne outbreaks. |
Correction: A mixed-methods approach for evaluating implementation processes and program costs for a hypertension management program implemented in a federally qualified health center
Tucker-Brown A , Spafford M , Wittenborn J , Rein D , Marshall A , Beasley KL , Vaughan M , Nelson N , Dougherty M , Ahn R . Prev Sci 2024 |
TB-free Ebeye: Results from integrated TB and noncommunicable disease case finding in Ebeye, Marshall Islands
Brostrom RJ , Largen A , Nasa JN , Jeadrik G , Yamada S , Yadav S , Ko E , Warkentin JV , Chorba TL . J Clin Tuberc Other Mycobact Dis 2024 35 100418 BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates in the Republic of the Marshall Islands are among the highest in the world, 480/100,000 in 2017. In response, the Health Ministry completed islandwide screening in Ebeye Island in 2017. METHODS: Participants were interviewed to obtain TB history, exposures, and symptoms. TB assessment included chest radiography with sputum collection for GeneXpert® MTB-RIF if indicated. TB diagnosis was made by consensus of visiting TB experts. Participants were also screened for Hansen's disease (HD) and diabetes mellitus (DM). For persons aged ≥21 years, blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 5,166 persons (90.0 % of target population) completed screening leading to the identification of 39 new cases of TB (755/100,000) and 14 persons with HD (270/100,000). DM was detected in 1,096 persons (27 %), including in 351 persons not previously diagnosed. The rate of hypertension was 61 % and of hypercholesterolemia was 15 %. New or prevalent TB diagnosis was associated with newly diagnosed or history of DM (aOR 4.68, 2.15-10.20). CONCLUSIONS: In Ebeye, an integrated TB screening campaign found TB, HD, DM, and hypertension. TB and DM were strongly associated. |
U.S. COVID-19 vaccine distribution strategies, systems, performance, and lessons learned, December 2020 - May 2023
Duggar C , Santoli JM , Noblit C , Moore LB , El Kalach R , Bridges CB . Vaccine 2024 During December 2020 through May 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Immunization Services Division supported and executed the largest vaccine distribution effort in U.S. history, delivering nearly one billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine to vaccine providers in all 50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam, Federated States of Micronesia, American Samoa, Marshall Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and Palau. While existing infrastructure, ordering, and distribution mechanisms were in place from the Vaccines for Children Program (VFC) and experience had been gained during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and incorporated into influenza vaccination pandemic planning, the scale and complexity of the national mobilization against a novel coronavirus resulted in many previously unforeseen challenges, particularly related to transporting and storing the majority of the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine at frozen and ultra-cold temperatures. This article describes the infrastructure supporting the distribution of U.S. government-purchased COVID-19 vaccines that was in place pre-pandemic, and the infrastructure, processes, and communications efforts developed to support the heightened demands of the COVID-19 vaccination program, and describes lessons learned. |
COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Technical (VaST) work group: Enhancing vaccine safety monitoring during the pandemic
Markowitz LE , Hopkins RH Jr , Broder KR , Lee GM , Edwards KM , Daley MF , Jackson LA , Nelson JC , Riley LE , McNally VV , Schechter R , Whitley-Williams PN , Cunningham F , Clark M , Ryan M , Farizo KM , Wong HL , Kelman J , Beresnev T , Marshall V , Shay DK , Gee J , Woo J , McNeil MM , Su JR , Shimabukuro TT , Wharton M , Keipp Talbot H . Vaccine 2024 During the COVID-19 pandemic, candidate COVID-19 vaccines were being developed for potential use in the United States on an unprecedented, accelerated schedule. It was anticipated that once available, under U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or FDA approval, COVID-19 vaccines would be broadly used and potentially administered to millions of individuals in a short period of time. Intensive monitoring in the post-EUA/licensure period would be necessary for timely detection and assessment of potential safety concerns. To address this, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) convened an Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) work group focused solely on COVID-19 vaccine safety, consisting of independent vaccine safety experts and representatives from federal agencies - the ACIP COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Technical Work Group (VaST). This report provides an overview of the organization and activities of VaST, summarizes data reviewed as part of the comprehensive effort to monitor vaccine safety during the COVID-19 pandemic, and highlights selected actions taken by CDC, ACIP, and FDA in response to accumulating post-authorization safety data. VaST convened regular meetings over the course of 29 months, from November 2020 through April 2023; through March 2023 FDA issued EUAs for six COVID-19 vaccines from four different manufacturers and subsequently licensed two of these COVID-19 vaccines. The independent vaccine safety experts collaborated with federal agencies to ensure timely assessment of vaccine safety data during this time. VaST worked closely with the ACIP COVID-19 Vaccines Work Group; that work group used safety data and VaST's assessments for benefit-risk assessments and guidance for COVID-19 vaccination policy. Safety topics reviewed by VaST included those identified in safety monitoring systems and other topics of scientific or public interest. VaST provided guidance to CDC's COVID-19 vaccine safety monitoring efforts, provided a forum for review of data from several U.S. government vaccine safety systems, and assured that a diverse group of scientists and clinicians, external to the federal government, promptly reviewed vaccine safety data. In the event of a future pandemic or other biological public health emergency, the VaST model could be used to strengthen vaccine safety monitoring, enhance public confidence, and increase transparency through incorporation of independent, non-government safety experts into the monitoring process, and through strong collaboration among federal and other partners. |
Effect of ground beef irradiation on annual nontyphoidal Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157 burden and direct healthcare costs in the United States: A simulation study
Khan MA , Collier SA , Ablan M , Canning M , Robyn M , Marshall KE . J Food Prot 2024 100231 Over 20% of E. coli O157 illnesses and over 5% of Salmonella illnesses are estimated to be attributable to beef consumption in the United States. Irradiating ground beef is one possible method to reduce disease burden. We simulated the effect of ground beef irradiation on illnesses, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct healthcare costs from ground beef-associated E. coli O157 and Salmonella illnesses in the United States. To estimate the fraction of illnesses, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct healthcare costs preventable by ground beef irradiation, we multiplied the disease burden attributable to ground beef; the estimated percentage of ground beef sold that is not currently irradiated; the percentage of unirradiated ground beef that would be irradiated; and the percentage reduction in risk of illness after irradiation. We multiplied this fraction by estimates of burden and direct healthcare costs to calculate the numbers or amounts averted. Model inputs were obtained from the literature and expert opinion. We used Monte Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainty in inputs into model estimates. Simulation outcomes were summarized with means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Irradiating 50% of the currently unirradiated ground beef supply would avert 3,285 (95% UI: 624-9,977) E. coli O157 illnesses, 135 (95% UI: 24-397) hospitalizations, 197 (95% UI: 34-631) hemolytic uremic syndrome cases, 2 (95% UI: 0-16) deaths, and $2,972,656 (95% UI: $254,708-$14,496,916) in direct healthcare costs annually. For Salmonella, irradiation would avert 20,308 (95% UI: 9,858-38,903) illnesses, 400 (95% UI: 158-834) hospitalizations, 6 (95% UI: 0-18) deaths, and $7,318,632 (95% UI: $1,436,141-$26,439,493) in direct healthcare costs. Increasing ground beef irradiation could reduce E. coli O157 and Salmonella burden in the United States. Additional studies should assess whether targeted irradiation of higher-risk ground beef products could prevent similar numbers of illnesses with less total product irradiated. |
Focus groups exploring U.S. adults' knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to irradiation as a food safety intervention, 2021
Ablan M , Low SheauFong , Marshall KE , Devchand R , Koehler L , Hume H , Robyn M . Food Prot Trends 2023 43 (6) 448-456 Food irradiation has been studied comprehensively and has been determined to be a safe and effective process for improving food safety. Despite this potential public health impact and current use in developed countries, the technology is not commonly used in the United States, with consumer acceptance often cited as a barrier. Given changes in consumer food-purchasing trends, advancements in irradiation technology, and an increase in multistate foodborne outbreaks, it is an opportune time to revisit consumer acceptance and factors that influence the purchase of irradiated food. We conducted seven focus groups to assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding irradiation as a food safety intervention. Meetings were virtual, lasted 90 min, and were held March 15-18, 2021. Participants were stratified into three groups using quota sampling: adults aged 18-64 years, parents of children aged 0-4 years, and adults aged 65 years and older. Consistent with past research, consumers were unaware of what food irradiation is. Facilitators for purchasing irradiated foods included protection from foodborne illness, reduced risk from certain foods, and support from public health agencies. Barriers included lack of knowledge, safety concerns, price, packaging, and a distrust of food technology. The results from these focus groups can inform public messaging and foodborne illness prevention strategies. |
A qualitative assessment of cleaning and hand hygiene practices at shelters serving people experiencing homelessness during the COVID-19 pandemic, Atlanta, GA - May-June, 2020
Besrat BN , Mosites E , Montgomery MP , Garcia-Williams AG , Trautner E , Clarke KEN , Marshall B , Vassell C , Rutt C , Jones SL . BMC Public Health 2024 24 (1) 247 BACKGROUND: Cleaning practices and hand hygiene are important behaviors to prevent and control the spread of infectious disease, especially in congregate settings. This project explored hygiene- and cleaning-related experiences in shelters serving people experiencing homelessness (PEH) during May-June 2020 of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We conducted qualitative, in-depth interviews by phone with 22 staff from six shelters in Atlanta, Georgia. The interview guide included questions about cleaning routines, cleaning barriers and facilitators, cleaning promotion, hand hygiene promotion, and hand hygiene barriers and facilitators. We analyzed interview transcripts using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Multiple individuals, such as shelter individuals (clients), volunteers, and staff, played a role in shelter cleaning. Staff reported engaging in frequent hand hygiene and cleaning practices. Barriers to cleaning included staffing shortages and access to cleaning supplies. Staff reported barriers (e.g., differing perceptions of cleanliness) for clients who were often involved in cleaning activities. Barriers to hand hygiene included limited time to wash hands, forgetting, and inconvenient handwashing facilities. Specific guidance about when and how to clean, and what supplies to use, were requested. CONCLUSION: During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, shelters serving PEH in the Atlanta-metro area needed resources and support to ensure sufficient staffing and supplies for cleaning activities. As part of future pandemic planning and outbreak prevention efforts, shelters serving PEH could benefit from specific guidance and training materials on cleaning and hand hygiene practices. |
Vaccine value profile for Neisseria gonorrhoeae
Lyu Y , Choong A , Chow EPF , Seib KL , Marshall HS , Unemo M , de Voux A , Wang B , Miranda AE , Gottlieb SL , Mello MB , Wi T , Baggaley R , Marshall C , Abu-Raddad LJ , Abara WE , Chen XS , Ong JJ . Vaccine 2023 Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection (gonorrhoea) is a global public health challenge, causing substantial sexual and reproductive health consequences, such as infertility, pregnancy complications and increased acquisition or transmission of HIV. There is an urgency to controlling gonorrhoea because of increasing antimicrobial resistance to ceftriaxone, the last remaining treatment option, and the potential for gonorrhoea to become untreatable. No licensed gonococcal vaccine is available. Mounting observational evidence suggests that N. meningitidis serogroup B outer membrane vesicle-based vaccines may induce cross-protection against N. gonorrhoeae (estimated 30%-40% effectiveness using the 4CMenB vaccine). Clinical trials to determine the efficacy of the 4CMenB vaccine against N. gonorrhoeae are underway, as are Phase 1/2 studies of a new gonococcal-specific vaccine candidate. Ultimately, a gonococcal vaccine must be accessible, affordable and equitably dispensed, given that those most affected by gonorrhoea are also those who may be most disadvantaged in our societies, and most cases are in less-resourced settings. This vaccine value profile (VVP) provides a high level, holistic assessment of the current data to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines. This was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the N. gonorrhoeae VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using published data obtained from peer-reviewed journals or reports. |
Vaccine value profile for norovirus
Armah G , Lopman BA , Vinjé J , O'Ryan M , Lanata CF , Groome M , Ovitt J , Marshall C , Sajewski E , Riddle MS . Vaccine 2023 41 Suppl 2 S134-S152 Norovirus is attributed to nearly 1 out of every 5 episodes of diarrheal disease globally and is estimated to cause approximately 200,000 deaths annually worldwide, with 70,000 or more among children in developing countries. Noroviruses remain a leading cause of sporadic disease and outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis even in industrialized settings, highlighting that improved hygiene and sanitation alone may not be fully effective in controlling norovirus. Strengths in global progress towards a Norovirus vaccine include a diverse though not deep pipeline which includes multiple approaches, including some with proven technology platforms (e.g., VLP-based HPV vaccines). However, several gaps in knowledge persist, including a fulsome mechanistic understanding of how the virus attaches to human host cells, internalizes, and induces disease. © 2023 The Author(s) |
Incomplete tissue product tracing during an investigation of a tissue-derived tuberculosis outbreak
Marshall KE , Free RJ , Filardo TD , Schwartz NG , Hernandez-Romieu AC , Thacker TC , Lehman KA , Annambhotla P , Dupree PB , Glowicz JB , Scarpita AM , Brubaker SA , Czaja CA , Basavaraju SV . Am J Transplant 2023 24 (1) 115-122 In the United States, there is currently no system to track donated human tissue products to individual recipients. This posed a challenge during an investigation of a nationwide tuberculosis outbreak that occurred when bone allograft contaminated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Lot A) was implanted into 113 patients in 18 U.S. states, including two patients at one healthcare facility in Colorado. A third patient at the same facility developed spinal tuberculosis with an isolate genetically identical to the Lot A outbreak strain. However, healthcare records indicated this patient had received bone allograft from a different donor (Lot B). We investigated the source of this newly identified infection, including the possibilities of Lot B donor infection, product switch or contamination during manufacturing, product switch at the healthcare facility, person-to-person transmission, and laboratory error. Findings included gaps in tissue traceability at the healthcare facility, creating the possibility for a product switch at the point-of-care despite detailed tissue-tracking policies. Nationally, 6 (3.9%) of 155 Lot B units could not be traced to final disposition. This investigation highlights the critical need to improve tissue-tracking systems to ensure unbroken traceability, facilitating investigations of recipient adverse events and enabling timely public health responses to prevent morbidity and mortality. |
Annual (2023) taxonomic update of RNA-directed RNA polymerase-encoding negative-sense RNA viruses (realm Riboviria: kingdom Orthornavirae: phylum Negarnaviricota)
Kuhn JH , Abe J , Adkins S , Alkhovsky SV , Avšič-Županc T , Ayllón MA , Bahl J , Balkema-Buschmann A , Ballinger MJ , Kumar Baranwal V , Beer M , Bejerman N , Bergeron É , Biedenkopf N , Blair CD , Blasdell KR , Blouin AG , Bradfute SB , Briese T , Brown PA , Buchholz UJ , Buchmeier MJ , Bukreyev A , Burt F , Büttner C , Calisher CH , Cao M , Casas I , Chandran K , Charrel RN , Kumar Chaturvedi K , Chooi KM , Crane A , Dal Bó E , Carlos de la Torre J , de Souza WM , de Swart RL , Debat H , Dheilly NM , Di Paola N , Di Serio F , Dietzgen RG , Digiaro M , Drexler JF , Duprex WP , Dürrwald R , Easton AJ , Elbeaino T , Ergünay K , Feng G , Firth AE , Fooks AR , Formenty PBH , Freitas-Astúa J , Gago-Zachert S , Laura García M , García-Sastre A , Garrison AR , Gaskin TR , Gong W , Gonzalez JJ , de Bellocq J , Griffiths A , Groschup MH , Günther I , Günther S , Hammond J , Hasegawa Y , Hayashi K , Hepojoki J , Higgins CM , Hongō S , Horie M , Hughes HR , Hume AJ , Hyndman TH , Ikeda K , Jiāng D , Jonson GB , Junglen S , Klempa B , Klingström J , Kondō H , Koonin EV , Krupovic M , Kubota K , Kurath G , Laenen L , Lambert AJ , Lǐ J , Li JM , Liu R , Lukashevich IS , MacDiarmid RM , Maes P , Marklewitz M , Marshall SH , Marzano SL , McCauley JW , Mirazimi A , Mühlberger E , Nabeshima T , Naidu R , Natsuaki T , Navarro B , Navarro JA , Neriya Y , Netesov SV , Neumann G , Nowotny N , Nunes MRT , Ochoa-Corona FM , Okada T , Palacios G , Pallás V , Papa A , Paraskevopoulou S , Parrish CR , Pauvolid-Corrêa A , Pawęska JT , Pérez DR , Pfaff F , Plemper RK , Postler TS , Rabbidge LO , Radoshitzky SR , Ramos-González PL , Rehanek M , Resende RO , Reyes CA , Rodrigues TCS , Romanowski V , Rubbenstroth D , Rubino L , Runstadler JA , Sabanadzovic S , Sadiq S , Salvato MS , Sasaya T , Schwemmle M , Sharpe SR , Shi M , Shimomoto Y , Kavi Sidharthan V , Sironi M , Smither S , Song JW , Spann KM , Spengler JR , Stenglein MD , Takada A , Takeyama S , Tatara A , Tesh RB , Thornburg NJ , Tian X , Tischler ND , Tomitaka Y , Tomonaga K , Tordo N , Tu C , Turina M , Tzanetakis IE , Maria Vaira A , van den Hoogen B , Vanmechelen B , Vasilakis N , Verbeek M , von Bargen S , Wada J , Wahl V , Walker PJ , Waltzek TB , Whitfield AE , Wolf YI , Xia H , Xylogianni E , Yanagisawa H , Yano K , Ye G , Yuan Z , Zerbini FM , Zhang G , Zhang S , Zhang YZ , Zhao L , Økland AL . J Gen Virol 2023 104 (8) In April 2023, following the annual International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) ratification vote on newly proposed taxa, the phylum Negarnaviricota was amended and emended. The phylum was expanded by one new family, 14 new genera, and 140 new species. Two genera and 538 species were renamed. One species was moved, and four were abolished. This article presents the updated taxonomy of Negarnaviricota as now accepted by the ICTV. |
The modified clinical progression scale for pediatric patients: Evaluation as a severity metric and outcome measure in severe acute viral respiratory illness
Leland SB , Staffa SJ , Newhams MM , Khemani RG , Marshall JC , Young CC , Maddux AB , Hall MW , Weiss SL , Schwarz AJ , Coates BM , Sanders RC Jr , Kong M , Thomas NJ , Nofziger RA , Cullimore ML , Halasa NB , Loftis LL , Cvijanovich NZ , Schuster JE , Flori H , Gertz SJ , Hume JR , Olson SM , Patel MM , Zurakowski D , Randolph AG . Pediatr Crit Care Med 2023 24 (12) 998-1009 OBJECTIVES: To develop, evaluate, and explore the use of a pediatric ordinal score as a potential clinical trial outcome metric in children hospitalized with acute hypoxic respiratory failure caused by viral respiratory infections. DESIGN: We modified the World Health Organization Clinical Progression Scale for pediatric patients (CPS-Ped) and assigned CPS-Ped at admission, days 2-4, 7, and 14. We identified predictors of clinical improvement (day 14 CPS-Ped ≤ 2 or a three-point decrease) using competing risks regression and compared clinical improvement to hospital length of stay (LOS) and ventilator-free days. We estimated sample sizes (80% power) to detect a 15% clinical improvement. SETTING: North American pediatric hospitals. PATIENTS: Three cohorts of pediatric patients with acute hypoxic respiratory failure receiving intensive care: two influenza (pediatric intensive care influenza [PICFLU], n = 263, 31 sites; PICFLU vaccine effectiveness [PICFLU-VE], n = 143, 17 sites) and one COVID-19 (n = 237, 47 sites). INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Invasive mechanical ventilation rates were 71.4%, 32.9%, and 37.1% for PICFLU, PICFLU-VE, and COVID-19 with less than 5% mortality for all three cohorts. Maximum CPS-Ped (0 = home at respiratory baseline to 8 = death) was positively associated with hospital LOS (p < 0.001, all cohorts). Across the three cohorts, many patients' CPS-Ped worsened after admission (39%, 18%, and 49%), with some patients progressing to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (19%, 11%, and 17%). Despite this, greater than 76% of patients across cohorts clinically improved by day 14. Estimated sample sizes per group using CPS-Ped to detect a percentage increase in clinical improvement were feasible (influenza 15%, n = 142; 10%, n = 225; COVID-19, 15% n = 208) compared with mortality (n > 21,000, all), and ventilator-free days (influenza 15%, n = 167). CONCLUSIONS: The CPS-Ped can be used to describe the time course of illness and threshold for clinical improvement in hospitalized children and adolescents with acute respiratory failure from viral infections. This outcome measure could feasibly be used in clinical trials to evaluate in-hospital recovery. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Value profile for respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and monoclonal antibodies
Fleming JA , Baral R , Higgins D , Khan S , Kochar S , Li Y , Ortiz JR , Cherian T , Feikin D , Jit M , Karron RA , Limaye RJ , Marshall C , Munywoki PK , Nair H , Newhouse LC , Nyawanda BO , Pecenka C , Regan K , Srikantiah P , Wittenauer R , Zar HJ , Sparrow E . Vaccine 2023 41 Suppl 2 S7-S40 Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children worldwide, yet no licensed RSV vaccine exists to help prevent the millions of illnesses and hospitalizations and tens of thousands of young lives taken each year. Monoclonal antibody (mAb) prophylaxis exists for prevention of RSV in a small subset of very high-risk infants and young children, but the only currently licensed product is impractical, requiring multiple doses and expensive for the low-income settings where the RSV disease burden is greatest. A robust candidate pipeline exists to one day prevent RSV disease in infant and pediatric populations, and it focuses on two promising passive immunization approaches appropriate for low-income contexts: maternal RSV vaccines and long-acting infant mAbs. Licensure of one or more candidates is feasible over the next one to three years and, depending on final product characteristics, current economic models suggest both approaches are likely to be cost-effective. Strong coordination between maternal and child health programs and the Expanded Program on Immunization will be needed for effective, efficient, and equitable delivery of either intervention. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for RSV is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the WHO headquarters. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the RSV VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information. |
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