OBJECTIVE: Alcohol minimum unit pricing (MUP) policies establish a floor price beneath which alcohol cannot be sold. The potential effectiveness of MUP policies for reducing alcohol-attributable deaths in the United States has not been quantitatively assessed. Therefore, this study estimated the effects of two hypothetical distilled spirits MUP policies on alcohol sales, consumption, and alcohol-attributable deaths in one state. METHOD: The International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies tool was used to estimate the effects of two hypothetical MUP per standard drink policies (40-cent and 45-cent) pertaining to distilled spirits products at off-premises alcohol outlets in Michigan during 2020. Prevalence estimates on drinking patterns among Michigan adults were calculated by sex and age group. Prices per standard drink and sales of 9,747 spirits products were analyzed using National Alcohol Beverage Control Association data. Analyses accounted for other alcoholic beverage type sales using cross-price elasticities. RESULTS: Increasing the MUP of the 3.5% of spirits with the lowest prices per standard drink to 40 cents could reduce total alcohol per capita consumption in Michigan by 2.6% and prevent 232 (5.3%) alcohol-attributable deaths annually. A 45-cent MUP would affect 8.0% of the spirits and reduce total alcohol per capita consumption by 3.9%, preventing 354 (8.1%) deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Modestly increasing the prices of the lowest-priced spirits with an MUP policy in a single state could save hundreds of lives annually. This suggests that alcohol MUP policies could be an effective strategy for improving public health in the United States, consistent with the World Health Organization's recommendation.

Retracing microbial emergence and spread is essential to understanding the evolution and dynamics of pathogens. The bacterial foodborne pathogen Listeria monocytogenes clonal complex 1 (Lm-CC1) is the most prevalent clonal group associated with listeriosis, and is strongly associated with cattle and dairy products. Here we analysed 2,021 Lm-CC1 isolates collected from 40 countries, since the first Lm isolation to the present day, to define its evolutionary history and population dynamics. Our results suggest that Lm-CC1 spread worldwide from North America following the Industrial Revolution through two waves of expansion, coinciding with the transatlantic livestock trade in the second half of the 19th century and the rapid growth of cattle farming in the 20th century. Lm-CC1 then firmly established at a local level, with limited inter-country spread. This study provides an unprecedented insight into Lm-CC1 phylogeography and dynamics and can contribute to effective disease surveillance to reduce the burden of listeriosis.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.

Keeping the global food supply safe necessitates international collaborations between countries. Health and regulatory agencies routinely communicate during foodborne illness outbreaks, allowing partners to share investigational evidence. A 2016-2020 outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes infections linked to imported enoki mushrooms required a multinational collaborative investigation among the United States, Canada, Australia, and France. Ultimately, this outbreak included 48 ill people, 36 in the United States and 12 in Canada, and was linked to enoki mushrooms sourced from one manufacturer located in the Republic of Korea. Epidemiologic, laboratory, and traceback evidence led to multiple regulatory actions, including extensive voluntary recalls by three firms in the United States and one firm in Canada. In the United States and Canada, the Korean manufacturer was placed on import alert while other international partners provided information about their respective investigations and advised the public not to eat the recalled enoki mushrooms. The breadth of the geographic distribution of this outbreak emphasizes the global reach of the food industry. This investigation provides a powerful example of the impact of national and international coordination of efforts to respond to foodborne illness outbreaks and protect consumers. It also demonstrates the importance of fast international data sharing and collaboration in identifying and stopping foodborne outbreaks in the global community. Additionally, it is a meaningful example of the importance of food sampling, testing, and integration of sequencing results into surveillance databases.

Local-level data on the health of populations are important to inform and drive effective and efficient actions to improve health, but such data are often expensive to collect and thus rare. Population Level Analysis and Community EStimates (PLACES) (www.cdc.gov/places/), a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and the CDC Foundation, provides model-based estimates for 29 measures among all counties and most incorporated and census-designated places, census tracts, and ZIP Code tabulation areas across the US. PLACES allows local health departments and others to better understand the burden and geographic distribution of chronic disease-related outcomes in their areas regardless of population size and urban-rural status and assists them in planning public health interventions. Online resources allow users to visually explore health estimates geographically, compare estimates, and download data for further use and exploration. By understanding the PLACES overall approach and using the easy-to-use PLACES applications, practitioners, policy makers, and others can enhance their efforts to improve public health, including informing prevention activities, programs, and policies; identifying priority health risk behaviors for action; prioritizing investments to areas with the biggest gaps or inequities; and establishing key health objectives to achieve community health and health equity.

OBJECTIVE: Increasing the price of alcohol is an effective strategy for reducing excessive consumption and alcohol-related harms. Limited research is available on how the establishment of a minimum price for alcoholic beverages might be an effective strategy to reduce this health risk behavior and what impact that might have in the United States. This study describes alcohol minimum pricing (MP) policy options for consideration in the United States, assesses implementation feasibility and effectiveness, and discusses implications for implementation. METHOD: Three alcohol pricing policy options for reducing excessive drinking were compared in this prospective analysis: alcohol taxation (status quo in states), minimum unit pricing (MUP) by unit of alcohol (e.g., 0.6 oz. [14 g] of pure alcohol), and MP by specified amount of an alcoholic beverage type (e.g., liter of beer). For each policy, five implementation-related domains were analyzed: political feasibility, public acceptability, implementation cost, health equity, and legal feasibility. Effectiveness was also evaluated based on literature. RESULTS: Alcohol MP policies, particularly MUP, could be feasible to implement and cost-efficient for reducing excessive alcohol consumption and related harms in the United States. MP policies are likely to have modest public acceptability in the United States. Although the political feasibility of MP policies is uncertain and would likely vary across states, international research suggests that MP might be a feasible pricing strategy that can be used in conjunction with alcohol taxes. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol MP can be part of a comprehensive approach for reducing excessive drinking and related harms; however, factors such as state-level differences in alcohol control regulation may influence policy implementation.

Retracing microbial emergence and spread is essential to understanding the evolution and 40 dynamics of pathogens. The bacterial foodborne pathogen Listeria monocytogenes clonal 41 complex 1 (Lm-CC1) is the most prevalent clonal group associated with listeriosis, and is 42 strongly associated with cattle and dairy products. Here we analysed 2,021 Lm-CC1 43 isolates collected from 40 countries, since the first Lm isolation to the present day, to 44 define its evolutionary history and population dynamics. Our results suggest that Lm-CC1 45 spread worldwide from North America following the Industrial Revolution through two 46 waves of expansion, coinciding with the transatlantic livestock trade in the second half of 47 the 19th century and the rapid growth of cattle farming in the 20th century. Lm-CC1 then 48 firmly established at a local level, with limited inter-country spread. This study provides 49 an unprecedented insight into Lm-CC1 phylogeography and dynamics and can contribute 50 to effective disease surveillance to reduce the burden of listeriosis.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of listeriosis was identified in South Africa in 2017. The source was unknown. METHODS: We conducted epidemiologic, trace-back, and environmental investigations and used whole-genome sequencing to type Listeria monocytogenes isolates. A case was defined as laboratory-confirmed L. monocytogenes infection during the period from June 11, 2017, to April 7, 2018. RESULTS: A total of 937 cases were identified, of which 465 (50%) were associated with pregnancy; 406 of the pregnancy-associated cases (87%) occurred in neonates. Of the 937 cases, 229 (24%) occurred in patients 15 to 49 years of age (excluding those who were pregnant). Among the patients in whom human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status was known, 38% of those with pregnancy-associated cases (77 of 204) and 46% of the remaining patients (97 of 211) were infected with HIV. Among 728 patients with a known outcome, 193 (27%) died. Clinical isolates from 609 patients were sequenced, and 567 (93%) were identified as sequence type 6 (ST6). In a case-control analysis, patients with ST6 infections were more likely to have eaten polony (a ready-to-eat processed meat) than those with non-ST6 infections (odds ratio, 8.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.66 to 43.35). Polony and environmental samples also yielded ST6 isolates, which, together with the isolates from the patients, belonged to the same core-genome multilocus sequence typing cluster with no more than 4 allelic differences; these findings showed that polony produced at a single facility was the outbreak source. A recall of ready-to-eat processed meat products from this facility was associated with a rapid decline in the incidence of L. monocytogenes ST6 infections. CONCLUSIONS: This investigation showed that in a middle-income country with a high prevalence of HIV infection, L. monocytogenes caused disproportionate illness among pregnant girls and women and HIV-infected persons. Whole-genome sequencing facilitated the detection of the outbreak and guided the trace-back investigations that led to the identification of the source.

Objectives. To demonstrate a flexible and practical method to obtain near real-time estimates of the number of at-risk community-dwelling adults with a chronic condition in a defined area potentially affected by a public health emergency.Methods. We used small area estimation with survey responses from the 2016 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System together with a geographic information system to predict the number of adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who lived in the forecasted path of Hurricane Florence in North and South Carolina in 2018.Results. We estimated that a range of 32 002 to 676 536 adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease resided between 50 and 200 miles of 3 consecutive daily forecasted landfalls. The number of affected counties ranged from 8 to 10 (at 50 miles) to as many as 119 to 127 (at 200 miles).Conclusions. Community preparedness is critical to anticipating, responding to, and ameliorating these health threats. We demonstrated the feasibility of quickly producing detailed estimates of the number of residents with chronic conditions who may face life-threatening situations because of a natural disaster. These methods are applicable to a range of planning and response scenarios.

Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) is a major human foodborne pathogen. Numerous Lm outbreaks have been reported worldwide and associated with a high case fatality rate, reinforcing the need for strongly coordinated surveillance and outbreak control. We developed a universally applicable genome-wide strain genotyping approach and investigated the population diversity of Lm using 1,696 isolates from diverse sources and geographical locations. We define, with unprecedented precision, the population structure of Lm, demonstrate the occurrence of international circulation of strains and reveal the extent of heterogeneity in virulence and stress resistance genomic features among clinical and food isolates. Using historical isolates, we show that the evolutionary rate of Lm from lineage I and lineage II is low ( approximately 2.5 x 10-7 substitutions per site per year, as inferred from the core genome) and that major sublineages (corresponding to so-called 'epidemic clones') are estimated to be at least 50-150 years old. This work demonstrates the urgent need to monitor Lm strains at the global level and provides the unified approach needed for global harmonization of Lm genome-based typing and population biology.