BACKGROUND: We designed and implemented an enhanced model of integrating family planning (FP) into existing HIV treatment services at six health facilities in Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: The enhanced model included: improving FP documentation within HIV monitoring systems; training HIV providers in FP services; offering contraceptives within the HIV clinic; and facilitated referral to community-based distributors. Independent samples of women living with HIV (WLHIV) aged ≥16 years were interviewed pre- and post-intervention and their clinical data abstracted from medical charts. Logistic regression models were used to assess differences in key outcomes between the two time periods. RESULTS: A total of 629 WLHIV were interviewed pre-intervention and 684 post-intervention. Current FP use increased from 35% to 49% comparing the pre- and post-intervention periods (P=0.0025). Increased use was seen for injectables (15% vs. 25%, P<0.0001) and implants (5% vs. 8%, P>0.05) but not for pills (10% vs. 8%, P<0.05) or intra-uterine devices (1% vs. 1%, P >0.05). Dual method use (contraceptive + barrier method) increased from 8% to 18% (P=0.0003) while unmet need for FP decreased from 59% to 46% (P=0.0003). Receipt of safer conception counseling increased from 27% to 39% (P<0.0001). The estimated total intervention cost was $83,293 (2018 USD). CONCLUSIONS: Our model of FP/HIV integration significantly increased the number of WLHIV reporting current FP and dual method use, a met need for FP, and safer conception counseling. These results support continued efforts to integrate FP and HIV services to improve women's access to sexual and reproductive health services.

BACKGROUND: The Botswana Combination Prevention Project tested the impact of combination prevention (CP) on HIV incidence in a community-randomized trial. Each trial arm had ∼55,000 people, 26% HIV prevalence, and 72% baseline ART coverage. Results showed intensive testing and linkage campaigns, expanded antiretroviral treatment (ART), and voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) referrals increased coverage and decreased incidence over ∼29 months follow-up. We projected lifetime clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of CP in this population. SETTING: Rural and peri-urban communities in Botswana. METHODS: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model to estimate lifetime health impact and cost of 1) earlier ART initiation, and 2) averting an HIV infection, which we applied to incremental ART initiations and averted infections calculated from trial data. We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, US$/QALY) for CP vs. standard of care. RESULTS: In CP, 1,418 additional people with HIV initiated ART and an additional 304 infections were averted. For each additional person started on ART, life expectancy increased 0.90 QALYs and care costs increased by $869. For each infection averted, life expectancy increased 2.43 QALYs with $9,200 in care costs saved. With CP, an additional $1.7 million were spent on prevention and $1.2 million on earlier treatment. These costs were mostly offset by decreased care costs from averted infections, resulting in an ICER of $79 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced HIV testing, linkage, and early ART initiation improves life expectancy, reduces transmission, and can be cost-effective or cost-saving in settings like Botswana.

The article by Tran et al. [1] entitled ‘Global estimates for the lifetime cost of managing HIV: a systematic review’ describes the lifetime costs of HIV care and treatment, by country income levels, perspective of the cost analysis, and modeling methods. Given the preventive effects of treatment, estimates of the lifetime cost of HIV treatment can be compared with potential investments in both primary prevention and maintaining viral suppression to reduce onward transmission, to determine whether and how those investments may reduce future medical and other costs. This study makes a much-needed contribution to the literature. It provides information that can be used as part of the decision-making process for allocating resources and motivate future investments. Moreover, this systematic review highlights many issues to address in future research.

INTRODUCTION: The scale-up of Universal Test and Treat has resulted in reductions in HIV morbidity, mortality and incidence. However, healthcare system and personal challenges have impacted the levels of treatment coverage achieved. We implemented interventions to improve linkage to care, retention, viral load (VL) coverage and service delivery, and describe the HIV care cascade over the course of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) study. METHODS: BCPP was designed to evaluate the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in 30 communities in Botswana. We followed a longitudinal cohort of newly identified and known HIV-positive persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified through community-based testing activities through BCPP and referred with appointments to local HIV clinics in 15 intervention communities. Those who did not keep the first or follow-up appointments were tracked and traced through phone and home contacts. Improvements to service delivery models in the intervention clinics were also implemented. RESULTS: A total of 3,657 newly identified or HIV-positive persons not on ART were identified and referred to their local HIV clinic; 90% (3,282/3,657) linked to care and of those, 93% (3,066/3,282) initiated treatment. Near the end of the study, 221 persons remained >90 days late for appointments or missing. Tracing efforts identified 54/3,066 (2%) persons who initiated treatment but died, and 106/3,066 (3%) persons were located and returned to treatment. At study end, 61/3,066 (2%) persons remained missing and were never reached. Overall, 2,951 (98%) persons living with HIV (PLHIV) who initiated treatment were still alive, retained in care and still receiving ART out of the 3,001 persons alive at the end of the study. Of those on ART, 2,854 (97%) had current VL results and 2,784 (98%) of those were virally suppressed at study end. CONCLUSIONS: This study achieved high rates of linkage, treatment initiation, retention and VL coverage and suppression in a cohort of newly identified and known PLHIV not on ART. Tracking and tracing interventions effectively identified those persons who needed more resource intensive follow-up. The interventions implemented to improve service delivery and data quality may have also contributed to high linkage and retention rates. Clinical trial number: NCT01965470.

Despite progress toward controlling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic, testing gaps remain, particularly among men and young persons in sub-Saharan Africa (1). This observational study used routinely collected programmatic data from 20 African countries reported to the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) from October 2018 to September 2019 to assess HIV testing coverage and case finding among adults (defined as persons aged ≥15 years). Indicators included number of HIV tests conducted, number of HIV-positive test results, and percentage positivity rate. Overall, the majority of countries reported higher HIV case finding among women than among men. However, a slightly higher percentage positivity was recorded among men (4.7%) than among women (4.1%). Provider-initiated counseling and testing (PITC) in health facilities identified approximately two thirds of all new cases, but index testing had the highest percentage positivity in all countries among both sexes. Yields from voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) and mobile testing varied by sex and by country. These findings highlight the need to identify and implement the most efficient strategies for HIV case finding in these countries to close coverage gaps. Strategies might need to be tailored for men who remain underrepresented in the majority of HIV testing programs.

Amitava Banerjee and colleagues1 present the estimated prevalence of serious underlying medical conditions indicative of susceptibility to severe COVID-19 and mortality in England. | | Their results are useful for targeting prevention strategies towards people at a higher risk for severe outcomes, to forecast the demand on health systems, to avert the strain on acute care facilities, and for clinicians and their patients who are at a higher risk for severe disease to optimise control of their underlying conditions and adopt precautions for the prevention of COVID-19. Nonetheless, caution is merited in interpreting these results.

In Côte d'Ivoire, the Family Approach to Counseling and Testing (FACT) program began in 2015 and provides facility-based HIV testing to the sexual partners, children and other household family members of HIV-positive index cases. We evaluated whether the FACT program is an effective approach to HIV case finding. We reviewed 1762 index patient charts to evaluate outcomes of the FACT program, held across 36 facilities in Abidjan. Index cases enumerated a total of 644 partners, 2301 children and 508 other family members including parents and siblings. Among the partners tested for HIV, the positivity rate was 21%; for children the positivity rate was 5% and for all other family members the positivity rate was 11%. Offering HIV testing services to the family members of HIV positive index cases is an effective approach to case finding in Côte d'Ivoire. Particularly, offering HIV testing to the partners of positive women index cases can be key to identifying previously undiagnosed men and linking them to treatment.

Meat and poultry processing facilities face distinctive challenges in the control of infectious diseases, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (1). COVID-19 outbreaks among meat and poultry processing facility workers can rapidly affect large numbers of persons. Assessment of COVID-19 cases among workers in 115 meat and poultry processing facilities through April 27, 2020, documented 4,913 cases and 20 deaths reported by 19 states (1). This report provides updated aggregate data from states regarding the number of meat and poultry processing facilities affected by COVID-19, the number and demographic characteristics of affected workers, and the number of COVID-19-associated deaths among workers, as well as descriptions of interventions and prevention efforts at these facilities. Aggregate data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths among workers identified and reported through May 31, 2020, were obtained from 239 affected facilities (those with a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case in one or more workers) in 23 states.* COVID-19 was confirmed in 16,233 workers, including 86 COVID-19-related deaths. Among 14 states reporting the total number of workers in affected meat and poultry processing facilities (112,616), COVID-19 was diagnosed in 9.1% of workers. Among 9,919 (61%) cases in 21 states with reported race/ethnicity, 87% occurred among racial and ethnic minority workers. Commonly reported interventions and prevention efforts at facilities included implementing worker temperature or symptom screening and COVID-19 education, mandating face coverings, adding hand hygiene stations, and adding physical barriers between workers. Targeted workplace interventions and prevention efforts that are appropriately tailored to the groups most affected by COVID-19 are critical to reducing both COVID-19-associated occupational risk and health disparities among vulnerable populations. Implementation of these interventions and prevention efforts(dagger) across meat and poultry processing facilities nationally could help protect workers in this critical infrastructure industry.

BACKGROUND: Four partner notification approaches were introduced in health facilities in Cote d'Ivoire to increase HIV testing uptake amongst the type of contacts (sex partners and biological children under 15). The study assessed the four approaches: client referral (index cases refer the contacts for HIV testing), provider referral (healthcare providers refer the contacts), contract referral (index case-provider hybrid approach), and dual referral (both the index and their partner are tested simultaneously). METHODS: Program data were collected at four facilities from October 2018 to March 2019 from index case files and HIV-testing register. We compared uptake of the approaches, uptake of HIV testing, and HIV positivity percentages, stratified by contact type and gender. RESULTS: There were 1,089 sex partners and 469 children from 1,089 newly diagnosed index cases. About 90% of children were contacted through client referral: 85.2% of those were tested and 1.4% was positive. 90% of children came from female index cases. The provider referral brought in 56.3% of sex partners, of whom 97.2% were HIV-tested. The client referral brought in 30% of sex partners, of whom only 81.5% were HIV-tested. HIV positivity percentages were 75.5% and 72.7% respectively for the two approaches. Male index cases helped to reach twice as many HIV positive sexual contacts outside the household (115) than female index cases (53). The contract and dual referrals were not preferred by index cases. CONCLUSION: Provider referral is a successful and acceptable strategy for bringing in sex partners for testing. Client referral is preferred for children.

BACKGROUND: Four partner notification approaches were introduced in health facilities in Cote d'Ivoire to increase HIV testing uptake amongst the type of contacts (sex partners and biological children under 15). The study assessed the four approaches: client referral (index cases refer the contacts for HIV testing), provider referral (healthcare providers refer the contacts), contract referral (index case-provider hybrid approach), and dual referral (both the index and their partner are tested simultaneously). METHODS: Program data were collected at four facilities from October 2018 to March 2019 from index case files and HIV-testing register. We compared uptake of the approaches, uptake of HIV testing, and HIV positivity percentages, stratified by contact type and gender. RESULTS: There were 1,089 sex partners and 469 children from 1,089 newly diagnosed index cases. About 90% of children were contacted through client referral: 85.2% of those were tested and 1.4% was positive. 90% of children came from female index cases. The provider referral brought in 56.3% of sex partners, of whom 97.2% were HIV-tested. The client referral brought in 30% of sex partners, of whom only 81.5% were HIV-tested. HIV positivity percentages were 75.5% and 72.7% respectively for the two approaches. Male index cases helped to reach twice as many HIV positive sexual contacts outside the household (115) than female index cases (53). The contract and dual referrals were not preferred by index cases. CONCLUSION: Provider referral is a successful and acceptable strategy for bringing in sex partners for testing. Client referral is preferred for children.

Community mitigation activities (also referred to as nonpharmaceutical interventions) are actions that persons and communities can take to slow the spread of infectious diseases. Mitigation strategies include personal protective measures (e.g., handwashing, cough etiquette, and face coverings) that persons can use at home or while in community settings; social distancing (e.g., maintaining physical distance between persons in community settings and staying at home); and environmental surface cleaning at home and in community settings, such as schools or workplaces. Actions such as social distancing are especially critical when medical countermeasures such as vaccines or therapeutics are not available. Although voluntary adoption of social distancing by the public and community organizations is possible, public policy can enhance implementation. The CDC Community Mitigation Framework (1) recommends a phased approach to implementation at the community level, as evidence of community spread of disease increases or begins to decrease and according to severity. This report presents initial data from the metropolitan areas of San Francisco, California; Seattle, Washington; New Orleans, Louisiana; and New York City, New York* to describe the relationship between timing of public policy measures, community mobility (a proxy measure for social distancing), and temporal trends in reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Community mobility in all four locations declined from February 26, 2020 to April 1, 2020, decreasing with each policy issued and as case counts increased. This report suggests that public policy measures are an important tool to support social distancing and provides some very early indications that these measures might help slow the spread of COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: HIV misdiagnosis leads to severe individual and public health consequences. Retesting for verification of all HIV-positive cases prior to antiretroviral therapy initiation can reduce HIV misdiagnosis, yet this practice has not been not widely implemented. METHODS: We evaluated and compared the cost of retesting for verification of HIV seropositivity (retesting) to the cost of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for misdiagnosed cases in the absence of retesting (no retesting), from the perspective of the health care system. We estimated the number of misdiagnosed cases based on a review of misdiagnosis rates, and the number of positives persons needing ART initiation by 2020. We presented the total and per person costs of retesting as compared to no retesting, over a ten-year horizon, across 50 countries in Africa grouped by income level. We conducted univariate sensitivity analysis on all model input parameters, and threshold analysis to evaluate the parameter values where the total costs of retesting and the costs no retesting are equivalent. Cost data were adjusted to 2017 United States Dollars. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The estimated number of misdiagnoses, in the absence of retesting was 156,117, 52,720 and 29,884 for lower-income countries (LICs), lower-middle income countries (LMICs), and upper middle-income countries (UMICs), respectively, totaling 240,463 for Africa. Under the retesting scenario, costs per person initially diagnosed were: $40, $21, and $42, for LICs, LMICs, and UMICs, respectively. When retesting for verification is implemented, the savings in unnecessary ART were $125, $43, and $75 per person initially diagnosed, for LICs, LMICs, and UMICs, respectively. Over the ten-year horizon, the total costs under the retesting scenario, over all country income levels, was $475 million, and was $1.192 billion under the no retesting scenario, representing total estimated savings of $717 million in HIV treatment costs averted. CONCLUSIONS: Results show that to reduce HIV misdiagnosis, countries in Africa should implement the WHO's recommendation of retesting for verification prior to ART initiation, as part of a comprehensive quality assurance program for HIV testing services.

In 2017, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimated that worldwide, 36.9 million persons were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the virus infection that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Among persons with HIV infection, approximately 75% were aware of their HIV status, leaving 9.4 million persons with undiagnosed infection (1). Index testing, also known as partner notification or contact tracing, is an effective case-finding strategy that targets the exposed contacts of HIV-positive persons for HIV testing services. This report summarizes data from HIV tests using index testing in 20 countries supported by CDC through the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) during October 1, 2016-March 31, 2018. During this 18-month period, 1,700,998 HIV tests with 99,201 (5.8%) positive results were reported using index testing. The positivity rate for index testing was 9.8% among persons aged >/=15 years and 1.5% among persons aged <15 years. During the reporting period, HIV positivity increased 64% among persons aged >/=15 years (from 7.6% to 12.5%) and 67% among persons aged <15 years (from 1.2% to 2.0%). Expanding index testing services could help increase the number of persons with HIV infection who know their status, are initiated onto antiretroviral treatment, and consequently reduce the number of persons who can transmit the virus.

In Botswana, 85% of persons living with HIV are aware of their status. We performed an economic analysis of HIV testing activities implemented during intensive campaigns, in 11 communities, between April 2015 and March 2016, through the Botswana Combination Prevention Project. The total cost was $1,098,312, or $99,847 per community, with 60% attributable to home-based testing and 40% attributable to mobile testing. The cost per person tested was $44, and $671 per person testing positive (2017 USD). Labor costs comprised 64% of total costs. In areas of high HIV prevalence and treatment coverage, the cost of untargeted home-based testing may be inflated by the efforts required to assess the testing eligibility of clients who are HIV-positive and on ART. Home-based and mobile testing delivered though an intensive community-based campaign allowed the identification of HIV positive persons, who may not access health facilities, at a cost comparable to other studies.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a resource allocation model to optimize health departments' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-funded HIV prevention budgets to prevent the most new cases of HIV infection and to evaluate the model's implementation in 4 health departments. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: We developed a linear programming model combined with a Bernoulli process model that allocated a fixed budget among HIV prevention interventions and risk subpopulations to maximize the number of new infections prevented. The model, which required epidemiologic, behavioral, budgetary, and programmatic data, was implemented in health departments in Philadelphia, Chicago, Alabama, and Nebraska. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The optimal allocation of funds, the site-specific cost per case of HIV infection prevented rankings by intervention, and the expected number of HIV cases prevented. RESULTS: The model suggested allocating funds to HIV testing and continuum-of-care interventions in all 4 health departments. The most cost-effective intervention for all sites was HIV testing in nonclinical settings for men who have sex with men, and the least cost-effective interventions were behavioral interventions for HIV-negative persons. The pilot sites required 3 to 4 months of technical assistance to develop data inputs and generate and interpret the results. Although the sites found the model easy to use in providing quantitative evidence for allocating HIV prevention resources, they criticized the exclusion of structural interventions and the use of the model to allocate only CDC funds. CONCLUSIONS: Resource allocation models have the potential to improve the allocation of limited HIV prevention resources and can be used as a decision-making guide for state and local health departments. Using such models may require substantial staff time and technical assistance. These model results emphasize the allocation of CDC funds toward testing and continuum-of-care interventions and populations at highest risk of HIV transmission.

In October 2012, a cluster of illnesses and deaths was reported in Uganda and was confirmed to be an outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD). Patients meeting the case criteria were interviewed using a standard investigation form, and blood specimens were tested for evidence of acute or recent Marburg virus infection by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The total count of confirmed and probable MVD cases was 26, of which 15 (58%) were fatal. Four of 15 laboratory-confirmed cases (27%) were fatal. Case patients were located in 4 different districts in Uganda, although all chains of transmission originated in Ibanda District, and the earliest case detected had an onset in July 2012. No zoonotic exposures were identified. Symptoms significantly associated with being a MVD case included hiccups, anorexia, fatigue, vomiting, sore throat, and difficulty swallowing. Contact with a case patient and attending a funeral were also significantly associated with being a case. Average RT-PCR cycle threshold values for fatal cases during the acute phase of illness were significantly lower than those for nonfatal cases. Following the institution of contact tracing, active case surveillance, care of patients with isolation precautions, community mobilization, and rapid diagnostic testing, the outbreak was successfully contained 14 days after its initial detection.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) focus on funding HIV prevention interventions likely to have high impact on the HIV epidemic. In its most recent funding announcement to state and local health department grantees, CDC required that health departments allocate the majority of funds to four HIV prevention interventions: HIV testing, prevention with HIV-positives and their partners, condom distribution and policy initiatives. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a systematic review of the published literature to determine the extent of the cost-effectiveness evidence for each of those interventions. METHODOLOGY: We searched for US-based studies published through October 2012. The studies that qualified for inclusion contained original analyses that reported costs per quality-adjusted life-year saved, life-year saved, HIV infection averted, or new HIV diagnosis. For each study, paired reviewers performed a detailed review and data extraction. We reported the number of studies related to each intervention and summarized key cost-effectiveness findings according to intervention type. Costs were converted to 2011 US dollars. RESULTS: Of the 50 articles that met the inclusion criteria, 33 related to HIV testing, 15 assessed prevention with HIV-positives and partners, three reported on condom distribution, and one reported on policy initiatives. Methodologies and cost-effectiveness metrics varied across studies and interventions, making them difficult to compare. CONCLUSION: Our review provides an updated summary of the published evidence of cost effectiveness of four key HIV prevention interventions recommended by CDC. With the exception of testing-related interventions, including partner services, where economic evaluations suggest that testing often can be cost effective, more cost-effectiveness research is needed to help guide the most efficient use of HIV prevention funds.

BACKGROUND: Effective HIV prevention programs rely on accurate estimates of the per-act risk of HIV acquisition from sexual and parenteral exposures. We updated the previous risk estimates of HIV acquisition from parenteral, vertical, and sexual exposures, and assessed the modifying effects of factors including condom use, male circumcision, and antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: We conducted literature searches to identify new studies reporting data regarding per-act HIV transmission risk and modifying factors. Of the 7339 abstracts potentially related to per-act HIV transmission risk, 3 meta-analyses provided pooled per-act transmission risk probabilities and 2 studies provided data on modifying factors. Of the 8119 abstracts related to modifying factors, 15 relevant articles, including 3 meta-analyses, were included. We used fixed-effects inverse-variance models on the logarithmic scale to obtain updated estimates of certain transmission risks using data from primary studies, and employed Poisson regression to calculate relative risks with exact 95% confidence intervals for certain modifying factors. RESULTS: Risk of HIV transmission was greatest for blood transfusion, followed by vertical exposure, sexual exposures, and other parenteral exposures. Sexual exposure risks ranged from low for oral sex to 138 infections per 10 000 exposures for receptive anal intercourse. Estimated risks of HIV acquisition from sexual exposure were attenuated by 99.2% with the dual use of condoms and antiretroviral treatment of the HIV-infected partner. CONCLUSION: The risk of HIV acquisition varied widely, and the estimates for receptive anal intercourse increased compared with previous estimates. The risk associated with sexual intercourse was reduced most substantially by the combined use of condoms and antiretroviral treatment of HIV-infected partners.

BACKGROUND: The number of strategies to prevent HIV transmission has increased following trials evaluating antiretroviral therapy (ART), preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and male circumcision. Serodiscordant couples need guidance on the effects of these strategies alone, and in combination with each other, on HIV transmission. METHODS: We estimated the sexual risk of HIV transmission over 1-year and 10-year periods among male-male and male-female serodiscordant couples. We assumed the following reductions in transmission: 80% from consistent condom use; 54% from circumcision in the negative male partner of a heterosexual couple; 73% from circumcision in the negative partner of a male-male couple; 71% from PrEP in heterosexual couples; 44% from PrEP in male-male couples; and 96% from ART use by the HIV-infected partner. FINDINGS: For couples using any single prevention strategy, a substantial cumulative risk of HIV transmission remained. For a male-female couple using only condoms, estimated risk over 10 years was 11%; for a male-male couple using only condoms, estimated risk was 76%. ART use by the HIV-infected partner was the most effective single strategy in reducing risk; among male-male couples, adding consistent condom use was necessary to keep the 10-year risk below 10%. CONCLUSION: Focusing on 1-year and longer term transmission probabilities gives couples a better understanding of risk than those illustrated by data for a single sexual act. Long-term transmission probabilities to the negative partner in serodiscordant couples can be high, though these can be substantially reduced with the strategic use of preventive methods, especially those that include ART.

In addition to the tremendous growth in operations research and management science applied to health care in the last several years there has been growth in the impact of such research in public policy and decision-making. The goal of this special issue was to compile state-of-the-art research on modeling, theory, empirical studies, and applications in health care. This issue contains nine contributions covering healthcare operations, health policy, and decision models based on disease progression and transmission models. | | In their paper “Impact of Treatment Heterogeneity on Drug Resistance and Supply Chain Costs”, Spiliotopoulou and colleagues develop an innovative disease transmission model to study the spread of resistant drug-strains through a population. They add a supply chain component to their model to investigate the tradeoffs between operational costs and the costs associated with drug resistance. An important conclusion of their analysis is that when disease severity is high and drug prices are low, it is optimal to use a wide assortment of drugs.

BACKGROUND: In the wake of a national economic downturn, the state of California, in 2009-2010, implemented budget cuts that eliminated state funding of HIV prevention and testing. To mitigate the effect of these cuts remaining federal funds were redirected. This analysis estimates the impact of these budget cuts and reallocation of resources on HIV transmission and associated HIV treatment costs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimated the effect of the budget cuts and reallocation for California county health departments (excluding Los Angeles and San Francisco) on the number of individuals living with or at-risk for HIV who received HIV prevention services. We used a Bernoulli model to estimate the number of new infections that would occur each year as a result of the changes, and assigned lifetime treatment costs to those new infections. We explored the effect of redirecting federal funds to more cost-effective programs, as well as the potential effect of allocating funds proportionately by transmission category. We estimated that cutting HIV prevention resulted in 55 new infections that were associated with $20 million in lifetime treatment costs. The redirection of federal funds to more cost-effective programs averted 15 HIV infections. If HIV prevention funding were allocated proportionately to transmission categories, we estimated that HIV infections could be reduced below the number that occurred annually before the state budget cuts. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing funding for HIV prevention may result in short-term savings at the expense of additional HIV infections and increased HIV treatment costs. Existing HIV prevention funds would likely have a greater impact on the epidemic if they were allocated to the more cost-effective programs and the populations most likely to acquire and transmit the infection.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had an annual budget of approximately $327 million to fund health departments and community-based organizations for core HIV testing and prevention programs domestically between 2001 and 2006. Annual HIV incidence has been relatively stable since the year 2000 [1] and was estimated at 48,600 cases in 2006 and 48,100 in 2009 [2]. Using estimates on HIV incidence, prevalence, prevention program costs and benefits, and current spending, we created an HIV resource allocation model that can generate a mathematically optimal allocation of the Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention's extramural budget for HIV testing, and counseling and education programs. The model's data inputs and methods were reviewed by subject matter experts internal and external to the CDC via an extensive validation process. The model projects the HIV epidemic for the United States under different allocation strategies under a fixed budget. Our objective is to support national HIV prevention planning efforts and inform the decision-making process for HIV resource allocation. Model results can be summarized into three main recommendations. First, more funds should be allocated to testing and these should further target men who have sex with men and injecting drug users. Second, counseling and education interventions ought to provide a greater focus on HIV positive persons who are aware of their status. And lastly, interventions should target those at high risk for transmitting or acquiring HIV, rather than lower-risk members of the general population. The main conclusions of the HIV resource allocation model have played a role in the introduction of new programs and provide valuable guidance to target resources and improve the impact of HIV prevention efforts in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: through a descriptive study, we determined the factors that influence the decision-making process for allocating funds to HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes, and the extent to which formal decision tools are used in the municipality of KwaDukuza, South Africa. METHODS: we conducted 35 key informant interviews in KwaDukuza. The interview questions addressed specific resource allocation issues while allowing respondents to speak openly about the complexities of the HIV/AIDS resource allocation process. RESULTS: donors have a large influence on the decision-making process for HIV/AIDS resource allocation. However, advocacy groups, governmental bodies and local communities also play an important role. Political power, culture and ethics are among a set of intangible factors that have a strong influence on HIV/AIDS resource allocation. Formal methods, including needs assessment, best practice approaches, epidemiologic modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis are sometimes used to support the HIV/AIDS resource allocation process. Historical spending patterns are an important consideration in future HIV/AIDS allocation strategies. CONCLUSIONS: several factors and groups influence resource allocation in KwaDukuza. Although formal economic and epidemiologic information is sometimes used, in most cases other factors are more important for resource allocation decision-making. These other factors should be considered in any attempts to improve the resource allocation processes.

The Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention (DHAP) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has an annual budget of approximately $325 million for funding HIV prevention programs in the U.S. The purpose of this paper is to thoroughly describe the methods used to develop a national HIV resource allocation model intended to inform DHAP on allocation strategies that might improve the overall effectiveness of HIV prevention efforts. The HIV prevention resource allocation problem consists of choosing how to apportion prevention resources among interventions and populations so that HIV incidence is minimized, given a budget constraint. We developed an epidemic model that projects HIV infections over time given a specific allocation scenario. The epidemic model is then embedded in a nonlinear mathematical optimization program to determine the allocation scenario that minimizes HIV incidence over a 5-year horizon. In our model, we consider the general U.S. population and specific at-risk populations. The at-risk populations include 15 subgroups structured by gender, race/ethnicity and HIV transmission risk group. HIV transmission risk groups include high-risk heterosexuals, men who have sex with men and injection drug users. We consider HIV screening interventions and interventions to reduce HIV-related risk behaviors. The output of the model is the optimal funding scenario indicating the amounts to be allocated to all combinations of populations and interventions. For illustrative purposes only, we provide a sample application of the model. In this example, the optimal allocation scenario is compared to the current baseline funding scenario to highlight how the current allocation of funds could be improved. In the baseline allocation, 29% of the annual budget is aimed at the general population, while the model recommends targeting 100% of the budget to the at-risk populations with no allocation targeted to the general population. Within the allocation to behavioral interventions the model recommends an increase in targeting diagnosed positives. Also, the model allocation suggests a greater focus on MSM and IDUs with a 72% of the annual budget allocated to them, while the baseline allocation for MSM and IDUs totals 37%. Incorporating future epidemic trends in the decision-making process informs the selection of populations and interventions that should be targeted. Improving the use of funds by targeting the interventions and population subgroups at greatest risk may lead to improved HIV outcomes. These models can also direct research by pointing to areas where the development of cost-effective interventions can have the most impact on the epidemic.

BACKGROUND: HIV incidence was substantially lower among circumcised versus uncircumcised heterosexual African men in three clinical trials. Based on those findings, we modeled the potential effect of newborn male circumcision on a U.S. male's lifetime risk of HIV, including associated costs and quality-adjusted life-years saved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Given published estimates of U.S. males' lifetime HIV risk, we calculated the fraction of lifetime risk attributable to heterosexual behavior from 2005-2006 HIV surveillance data. We assumed 60% efficacy of circumcision in reducing heterosexually-acquired HIV over a lifetime, and varied efficacy in sensitivity analyses. We calculated differences in lifetime HIV risk, expected HIV treatment costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) among circumcised versus uncircumcised males. The main outcome measure was cost per HIV-related QALY saved. Circumcision reduced the lifetime HIV risk among all males by 15.7% in the base case analysis, ranging from 7.9% for white males to 20.9% for black males. Newborn circumcision was a cost-saving HIV prevention intervention for all, black and Hispanic males. The net cost of newborn circumcision per QALY saved was $87,792 for white males. Results were most sensitive to the discount rate, and circumcision efficacy and cost. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Newborn circumcision resulted in lower expected HIV-related treatment costs and a slight increase in QALYs. It reduced the 1.87% lifetime risk of HIV among all males by about 16%. The effect varied substantially by race and ethnicity. Racial and ethnic groups who could benefit the most from circumcision may have least access to it due to insurance coverage and state Medicaid policies, and these financial barriers should be addressed. More data on the long-term protective effect of circumcision on heterosexual males as well as on its efficacy in preventing HIV among MSM would be useful.