We studied the relationship of frailty and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) among a multi-site cohort of community-dwelling older adults aged ≥60 years in India. During January 2019‒January 2020, participants completed the Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS) at baseline and every 3 months at four sites in India, with each participant completing a maximum of four surveys. Participants were categorized as non-frail (0-5 points), vulnerable (6-7 points), and frail (≥8 points) based on EFS score. Project nurses made weekly home visits to identify ALRI episodes with onset during past 7 days. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for having an ALRI episode within 90 days after EFS by frailty category. We also assessed risk of deterioration of frailty during 7-100 days after ALRI episode onset in terms of an increased EFS score by ≥1 point and change of frailty category. Among 5801 participants (median age 65 years, 41% males), 3568 (61·5%) were non-frail, 1507 (26%) vulnerable, and 726 (12·5%) frail at enrolment. Compared with non-frail participants, the hazard of an ALRI episode was higher among vulnerable (aHR: 1·6, (95%CI 1·3-2.0) and frail participants (aHR: 1·7, 95%CI 1·3-2·2). Participants having ALRI within the past 7-100 days were at increased risk of worsening frailty category (aOR: 1.9, 95%CI 1·3-2.8) compared to participants without an ALRI episode during the same period. The association between ALRIs and worsened frailty suggests prevention of ALRIs through vaccination and other strategies may have broad reaching health benefits for older adults.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Drug Overdose Surveillance and Epidemiology (DOSE) system captures non-fatal overdose data from health departments' emergency department (ED) and inpatient hospitalisation discharge data; however, these data have not been compared with other established state-level surveillance systems, which may lag by several years depending on the state. This analysis compared non-fatal overdose rates from DOSE discharge data with rates from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) in order to compare DOSE data against an established dataset. METHODS: DOSE discharge data case definitions (ie, International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, Clinical Modification codes) for non-fatal unintentional/undetermined intent all drug, all opioid-involved, heroin-involved and stimulant-involved overdoses were applied to HCUP's 2018-2020 State Emergency Department Databases (SEDD) and State Inpatient Databases (SID). Quarterly crude rates (per 100 000 population) and rate differences of four overdose categories were calculated for ED and inpatient data sources across 18 states included in DOSE and HCUP datasets for at least 2 consecutive years. Joinpoint regression models examined trends from 2018 through 2020, estimating average quarterly percentage change (AQPC) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: Quarterly crude rate differences between DOSE ED and SEDD data (across 12 states) and DOSE inpatient and SID data (across 16 states) indicated that 82% and 93% of rates, respectively, were within ±0.5 non-fatal overdoses per 100 000 population of each other. AQPC across states and drug categories were similar between the two data sources for both ED and inpatient data. DISCUSSION: Non-fatal overdose surveillance through DOSE discharge data may be a valid and timely source for estimating non-fatal overdoses at the state level.

BACKGROUND: With the increased availability of licensed vaccines for respiratory viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza virus, a better understanding of the viral aetiology of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) among children could help in optimising the use of these vaccines. We conducted a study among children aged <5 years hospitalised with SARI at a tertiary care children's hospital in north India and tested for common respiratory pathogens. METHODS: We randomly enrolled eligible SARI cases aged <5 years from August 2013 to July 2015. SARI cases were defined as either <7-day history of fever with cough or in children aged eight days to three months, a physician diagnosis of acute lower respiratory infection requiring hospitalisation. We also enrolled an age-group matched control without any acute illness in a 2:1 ratio from the outpatient clinic within 24 hours of case enrolment. Nasopharyngeal and/or oropharyngeal swabs were collected and tested using TaqMan Array Cards, a real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-based multi-pathogen testing platform for selected respiratory viruses among the enrolled cases and controls. We compared the prevalence of each pathogen among cases and controls using the χ(2) (χ(2)) or Fisher exact test (P < 0.05). We used logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) which were then used to calculate aetiologic fractions (EFs). RESULTS: We enrolled 840 cases and 419 outpatient controls. Almost half of the individuals in the whole sample were aged <6 months (n = 521, 41.4%). Females made up 33.7% of cases and 37.2% of controls. Viral detections were more common among cases (69%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 66, 73) compared to controls (33%; 95% CI = 29, 38) (P < 0.01). RSV (n = 257, 31%; 95% CI = 28, 34%) was the most common virus detected among cases. Influenza A was detected among 24 (3%; 95% CI = 2, 4%), and influenza B among 5 (1%; 95% CI = 0, 1%) cases. The association between the virus and SARI was strongest for RSV (aOR = 23; 95% CI = 12, 47; EF = 96%). Antivirals were administered to 1% of SARI cases while 78% received antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS: Using a multi-pathogen molecular detection method, we detected respiratory viruses among more than two-thirds of children aged <5 years admitted with SARI in the Delhi tertiary care children's hospital. The guidelines for preventing and managing SARI cases among children could be optimised further with the improved availability of antivirals and vaccines.

INTRODUCTION: The balance of benefits and harms of vaccines are assessed by regulatory agencies and National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) to inform vaccine authorization or guidance. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach has been adopted by many NITAGs to develop recommendations. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several NITAGs additionally used direct quantitative comparisons (DQCs) between benefits and risk of vaccination with or without a GRADE framework to support timely decision-making relating to emerging safety signals. This study aimed to document the role of DQCs as novel tools in NITAGs' work by identifying situations where DQCs have been clearly leveraged in NITAG guidance, as well as identifying their strengths and limitations. METHODS: The MEDLINE database and NITAGs' websites listed in the Global NITAG Network were searched for NITAG publications on COVID-19 vaccines. Publications were included if a DQC between benefits and risks of any COVID-19 vaccine was explicitly used for NITAG decision-making. Two reviewers independently assessed publication eligibility and extracted data. A narrative description of the role of DQCs in NITAG guidance, DQCs' methods and limitations was conducted. RESULTS: Overall, 23 publications with 18 DQCs used by seven NITAGs were included. Situations prompting these publications included new safety signals (n = 7), additional information available on previously identified safety signals (n = 4) and changing contexts (n = 15) (e.g., vaccine supply, and epidemiology). DQC simplicity made them accessible, timely, and allowed for transparent communication. DQCs heavily relied on assumptions making them sensitive to changes in model parameters. DQCs limitations made them not easily transferable to other contexts and they quickly became obsolete in the evolving context of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The use of DQCs by NITAGs during the COVID-19 pandemic allowed for rapid evidence-based decision-making in an evolving environment while maintaining public trust. However, if their use becomes standard practice, efforts should be made to address their limitations.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exists regarding risk factors for adverse outcomes in older adults hospitalized with Community-Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) in low- and middle-income countries such as India. This multisite study aimed to assess outcomes and associated risk factors among adults aged ≥60 years hospitalized with pneumonia. METHODS: Between December 2018 and March 2020, we enrolled ≥60-year-old adults admitted within 48 hours for CAP treatment across 16 public and private facilities in four sites. Clinical data and nasal/oropharyngeal specimens were collected by trained nurses and tested for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and other respiratory viruses (ORV) using the qPCR. Participants were evaluated regularly until discharge, as well as on the 7th and 30th days post-discharge. Outcomes included ICU admission and in-hospital or 30-day post-discharge mortality. A hierarchical framework for multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models identified risk factors (e.g., demographics, clinical features, etiologic agents) associated with critical care or death. FINDINGS: Of 1,090 CAP patients, the median age was 69 years; 38.4% were female. Influenza viruses were detected in 12.3%, RSV in 2.2%, and ORV in 6.3% of participants. Critical care was required for 39.4%, with 9.9% in-hospital mortality and 5% 30-day post-discharge mortality. Only 41% of influenza CAP patients received antiviral treatment. Admission factors independently associated with ICU admission included respiratory rate >30/min, blood urea nitrogen>19mg/dl, altered sensorium, anemia, oxygen saturation <90%, prior cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and private hospital admission. Diabetes, anemia, low oxygen saturation at admission, ICU admission, and mechanical ventilation were associated with 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: High ICU admission and 30-day mortality rates were observed among older adults with pneumonia, with a significant proportion linked to influenza and RSV infections. Comprehensive guidelines for CAP prevention and management in older adults are needed, especially with the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2.

IMPORTANCE: Despite modest reductions in the incidence of hospital-onset Clostridioides difficile infection (HO-CDI), CDI remains a leading cause of health care-associated infection. As no single intervention has proven highly effective on its own, a multifaceted approach to controlling HO-CDI is needed. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Strategies to Prevent Clostridioides difficile Infection in Acute Care Facilities Framework (hereafter, the Framework) in reducing HO-CDI incidence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This quality improvement study was performed within the Duke Infection Control Outreach Network from July 1, 2019, through March 31, 2022. In all, 20 hospitals in the network participated in an implementation study of the Framework recommendations, and 26 hospitals did not participate and served as controls. The Framework has 39 discrete intervention categories organized into 5 focal areas for CDI prevention: (1) isolation and contact precautions, (2) CDI confirmation, (3) environmental cleaning, (4) infrastructure development, and (5) antimicrobial stewardship engagement. EXPOSURES: Monthly teleconferences supporting Framework implementation for the participating hospitals. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcomes were HO-CDI incidence trends at participating hospitals compared with controls and postintervention HO-CDI incidence at intervention sites compared with rates during the 24 months before the intervention. RESULTS: The study sample included a total of 2184 HO-CDI cases and 7 269 429 patient-days. In the intervention cohort of 20 participating hospitals, there were 1403 HO-CDI cases and 3 513 755 patient-days, with a median (IQR) HO-CDI incidence of 2.8 (2.0-4.3) cases per 10 000 patient-days. The first analysis included an additional 3 755 674 patient-days and 781 HO-CDI cases among the 26 controls, with a median (IQR) HO-CDI incidence of 1.1 (0.7-2.7) case per 10 000 patient-days. The second analysis included an additional 2 538 874 patient-days and 1751 HO-CDI cases, with a median (IQR) HO-CDI incidence of 5.9 (2.7-8.9) cases per 10 000 patient-days, from participating hospitals 24 months before the intervention. In the first analysis, intervention sites had a steeper decline in HO-CDI incidence over time relative to controls (yearly incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.79 [95% CI, 0.67-0.94]; P = .01), but the decline was not temporally associated with study participation. In the second analysis, HO-CDI incidence was declining in participating hospitals before the intervention, and the rate of decline did not change during the intervention. The degree to which hospitals implemented the Framework was associated with steeper declines in HO-CDI incidence (yearly IRR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.90-0.99]; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this quality improvement study of a regional hospital network, implementation of the Framework was not temporally associated with declining HO-CDI incidence. Further study of the effectiveness of multimodal prevention measures for controlling HO-CDI is warranted.

INTRODUCTION: Advocacy for the provision of public health resources, including vaccine for the prevention of acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) among older adults in India, needs evidence on costs and benefits. Using a cohort of community-dwelling adults aged 60 years and older in India, we estimated the cost of ARI episode and its determinants. METHODS: We enrolled 6016 participants in Ballabgarh, Chennai, Kolkata and Pune from July 2018 to March 2020. They were followed up weekly to identify ARI and classified them as acute upper respiratory illness (AURI) or pneumonia based on clinical features based on British Thoracic Society guidelines. All pneumonia and 20% of AURI cases were asked about the cost incurred on medical consultation, investigation, medications, transportation, food and lodging. The cost of services at public facilities was supplemented by WHO-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective(CHOICE) estimates for 2019. Indirect costs incurred by the affected participant and their caregivers were estimated using human capital approach. We used generalised linear model with log link and gamma family to identify the average marginal effect of key determinants of the total cost of ARI. RESULTS: We included 2648 AURI and 1081 pneumonia episodes. Only 47% (range 36%-60%) of the participants with pneumonia sought care. The mean cost of AURI episode was US$13.9, while that of pneumonia episode was US$25.6, with indirect costs comprising three-fourths of the total. The cost was higher among older men by US$3.4 (95% CI: 1.4 to 5.3), those with comorbidities by US$4.3 (95% CI: 2.8 to 5.7) and those who sought care by US$17.2 (95% CI: 15.1 to 19.2) but not by influenza status. The mean per capita annual cost of respiratory illness was US$29.5. CONCLUSION: Given the high community disease and cost burden of ARI, intensifying public health interventions to prevent and mitigate ARI among this fast-growing older adult population in India is warranted.

Effective surveillance of adverse events following immunization (AEFIs) primarily relies on the collaboration of two partners: national regulatory authorities (NRAs) and national expanded programs on immunization (EPIs). In December 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Advisory Committee for Vaccine Safety recommended a new case-based indicator of national capacity to monitor immunization safety: at least one serious AEFI reported per 1 million total population per year. To achieve this indicator, WHO-affiliated countries and territories (WHO countries) rely upon data generated from functional AEFI surveillance systems. This report describes 2020-2022 global, regional, and national progress in use of the newly introduced immunization safety monitoring indicator and progress on joint AEFI reporting from national EPIs and NRAs. Among WHO countries, 51 (24%) of 214 implemented the new indicator in 2020, 111 (52%) of 214 implemented it in 2021, and 92 (43%) of 215 in 2022. In 2020, 41 (19%) WHO countries reported AEFI data jointly from EPIs and NRAs; this increased to 55 (26%) in 2021 and 57 (27%) in 2022. These findings, resulting in part from the intensified support for COVID-19 vaccination, demonstrate that national AEFI surveillance systems increasingly support the timely use and sharing of case-based immunization safety data, but work is still needed to strengthen global vaccine safety monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focussed on high-income settings. METHODS: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration and whether physical) vary across income settings. RESULTS: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age-groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, but low-income settings were characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income-strata on the frequency, duration and type of contacts individuals made. CONCLUSIONS: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens, as well as the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. FUNDING: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

BACKGROUND: We present post-vaccination nasal shedding findings from the phase IV, community-based, triple-blinded RCT conducted to assess efficacy of trivalent LAIV and inactivated influenza vaccines in rural north India. METHODS: Children aged 2-10 years received LAIV or intranasal placebo across 2015 and 2016, as per initial allocation. On days 2 and 4 post-vaccination, trained study nurses collected nasal swabs from randomly selected subset of trial participants based on operational feasibility, accounting for 10.0% and 11.4% of enrolled participants in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Swabs were collected in viral transport medium and transported under cold chain to laboratory for testing by reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: In year 1, on day 2 post-vaccination, 71.2% (74/104) of LAIV recipients shed at least one of vaccine virus strains compared to 42.3% (44/104) on day 4. During year 1, on day 2 post-vaccination, LAIV-A(H1N1)pdm09 was detected in nasal swabs of 12% LAIV recipients, LAIV-A(H3N2) in 41%, and LAIV-B in 59%. In year 2, virus shedding was substantially lower; 29.6% (32/108) of LAIV recipients shed one of the vaccine virus strains on day 2 compared to 21.3% on day 4 (23/108). CONCLUSION: At day 2 post-vaccination in year 1, two-thirds of LAIV recipients were shedding vaccine viruses. Shedding of vaccine viruses varied between strains and was lower in year 2. More research is needed to determine the reason for lower virus shedding and vaccine efficacy for LAIV-A(H1N1)pdm09.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to measure sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing among Medicaid enrollees initiating preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent human immunodeficiency virus. Secondary data are in the form of Medicaid enrollment and claims data in six states in the US South. METHODS: Research partnerships in six states in the US South developed a distributed research network to accomplish study aims. Each state identified all first-time PrEP users in fiscal year 2017-2018 (combined N = 990) and measured the presence of STI testing for chlamydia, syphilis, and gonorrhea through 2019. Each state calculated the percentage of individuals with at least one STI test during 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-up periods. RESULTS: The proportion of first-time PrEP users that received an STI test varied by state: 37% to 67% of all of the individuals in each state who initiated PrEP received a test within the first 6 months of PrEP treatment and 50% to 77% received a test within the first 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Although the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends STI testing at least every 6 months for PrEP users, our analysis of Medicaid data suggests that STI testing occurs less frequently than recommended in populations at elevated risk of syphilis, gonorrhea, and chlamydia.

IMPORTANCE: Two-step testing for Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) aims to improve diagnostic specificity, but may also influence reported epidemiology and patterns of treatment. Some providers fear that two-step testing may result in adverse outcomes if C. difficile is under-diagnosed. OBJECTIVE: Our primary objective was to assess the impact of two-step testing on reported incidence of hospital-onset CDI (HO-CDI). As secondary objectives, we assessed the impact of two-step testing on C. difficile-specific antibiotic use and colectomy rates as proxies for harm from underdiagnosis or delayed treatment. DESIGN: This longitudinal cohort study included 2,657,324 patient-days across eight regional hospitals from July 2017 through March 2022. Impact of two-step testing was assessed by time series analysis with generalized estimating equation regression models. RESULTS: Two-step testing was associated with a level decrease in HO-CDI incidence (incidence rate ratio 0.53, 95% CI 0.48-0.60, p<.0.001), a similar level decrease in utilization rates for oral vancomycin and fidaxomicin (utilization rate ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.58-0.70, p<0.001), and no significant level (rate ratio 1.16, 95% CI 0.93-1.43, p=0.18) or trend (rate ratio 0.85, 95% CI 0.52-1.39, p=0.51) change in emergent colectomy rates. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Two-step testing is associated with decreased reported incidence of HO-CDI, likely by improving diagnostic specificity. The parallel decrease in C. difficile specific antibiotic use offers indirect reassurance against under-diagnosis of C. difficile infections still requiring treatment by clinician assessment. Similarly, the absence of any significant change in colectomy rates offers indirect reassurance against any rise in fulminant C. difficile requiring surgical management.

Since 2013, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has offered the Public Health Emergency Management Fellowship to health professionals from around the world. The goal of this program is to build an international workforce to establish public health emergency management programs and operations centers in participating countries. In March 2021, all 141 graduates of the fellowship program were invited to complete a web survey designed to examine their job roles and functions, assess their contributions to their country's COVID-19 response, and identify needs for technical assistance to strengthen national preparedness and response systems. Of 141 fellows, 89 successfully completed the survey. Findings showed that fellowship graduates served key roles in COVID-19 response in many countries, used skills they gained from the fellowship, and desired continuing engagement between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and fellowship alumni to strengthen the community of practice for international public health emergency management.

Background Severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) are a leading cause of hospitalizations in children, especially due to viral pathogens. We studied the prevalence of respiratory viruses among children aged <5 years hospitalized with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in Kashmir, India. Methods We conducted a prospective observational study in two tertiary care hospitals from October 2013 to September 2014, systematically enrolling two children aged <5 years with SARI per day. We defined SARI as history of fever or measured fever (≥38°C) and cough with onset in the last 7 days requiring hospitalization for children aged 3-59 months and as physician-diagnosed acute lower respiratory infection for children aged <3 months. Trained study staff screened children within 24 hours of hospitalization for SARI and collected clinical data and nasopharyngeal swabs from enrolled participants. We tested for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A and B, influenza viruses, rhinoviruses (HRV)/enteroviruses, adenovirus (AdV), bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV) A and B, coronaviruses (OC43, NL65, C229E), and parainfluenza viruses (PIV) 1, 2, 3 and 4 using standardized duplex real-time polymerase chain reaction. Results Among 4548 respiratory illness admissions screened from October 2013 to September 2014, 1026 met the SARI case definition, and 412 were enrolled (ages = 5 days to 58 months; median = 12 months). Among enrolees, 256 (62%) were positive for any virus; RSV was the most commonly detected (n = 118, 29%) followed by HRV/enteroviruses (n = 88, 21%), PIVs (n = 31, 8%), influenza viruses (n = 18, 4%), BoV (n = 15, 4%), coronaviruses (n = 16, 4%), AdV (n = 14, 3%), and hMPV (n = 9, 2%). Fifty-four children had evidence of virus co-detection. Influenza-associated SARI was more common among children aged 1-5 years (14/18, 78%) while most RSV detections occurred in children <12 months (83/118, 70%). Of the RSV viruses typed (n = 116), the majority were type B (94, 80%). Phylogenetic analysis of G gene of RSV showed circulation of the BA9 genotype with 60bp nucleotide duplication. Conclusions Respiratory viruses, especially RSV, contributed to a substantial proportion of SARI hospitalizations among children <5 years in north India. These data can help guide clinicians on appropriate treatment and prevention strategies. © 2022. The Author(s)

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of acute lower respiratory infection in young children. We previously estimated that in 2015, 33·1 million episodes of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection occurred in children aged 0-60 months, resulting in a total of 118 200 deaths worldwide. Since then, several community surveillance studies have been done to obtain a more precise estimation of RSV associated community deaths. We aimed to update RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality at global, regional, and national levels in children aged 0-60 months for 2019, with focus on overall mortality and narrower infant age groups that are targeted by RSV prophylactics in development. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, we expanded our global RSV disease burden dataset by obtaining new data from an updated search for papers published between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2020, from MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Web of Science, LILACS, OpenGrey, CNKI, Wanfang, and ChongqingVIP. We also included unpublished data from RSV GEN collaborators. Eligible studies reported data for children aged 0-60 months with RSV as primary infection with acute lower respiratory infection in community settings, or acute lower respiratory infection necessitating hospital admission; reported data for at least 12 consecutive months, except for in-hospital case fatality ratio (CFR) or for where RSV seasonality is well-defined; and reported incidence rate, hospital admission rate, RSV positive proportion in acute lower respiratory infection hospital admission, or in-hospital CFR. Studies were excluded if case definition was not clearly defined or not consistently applied, RSV infection was not laboratory confirmed or based on serology alone, or if the report included fewer than 50 cases of acute lower respiratory infection. We applied a generalised linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) to estimate RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence, hospital admission, and in-hospital mortality both globally and regionally (by country development status and by World Bank Income Classification) in 2019. We estimated country-level RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence through a risk-factor based model. We developed new models (through GLMM) that incorporated the latest RSV community mortality data for estimating overall RSV mortality. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021252400). FINDINGS: In addition to 317 studies included in our previous review, we identified and included 113 new eligible studies and unpublished data from 51 studies, for a total of 481 studies. We estimated that globally in 2019, there were 33·0 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 25·4-44·6 million), 3·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (2·9-4·6 million), 26 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (15 100-49 100), and 101 400 RSV-attributable overall deaths (84 500-125 200) in children aged 0-60 months. In infants aged 0-6 months, we estimated that there were 6·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (4·6-9·7 million), 1·4 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (1·0-2·0 million), 13 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (6800-28 100), and 45 700 RSV-attributable overall deaths (38 400-55 900). 2·0% of deaths in children aged 0-60 months (UR 1·6-2·4) and 3·6% of deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months (3·0-4·4) were attributable to RSV. More than 95% of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes and more than 97% of RSV-attributable deaths across all age bands were in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). INTERPRETATION: RSV contributes substantially to morbidity and mortality burden globally in children aged 0-60 months, especially during the first 6 months of life and in LMICs. We highlight the striking overall mortality burden of RSV disease worldwide, with one in every 50 deaths in children aged 0-60 months and one in every 28 deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months attributable to RSV. For every RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital death, we estimate approximately three more deaths attributable to RSV in the community. RSV passive immunisation programmes targeting protection during the first 6 months of life could have a substantial effect on reducing RSV disease burden, although more data are needed to understand the implications of the potential age-shifts in peak RSV burden to older age when these are implemented. FUNDING: EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).

INTRODUCTION: The rates of syphilis among pregnant women and infants have increased in recent years, particularly in the U.S. South. Although state policies require prenatal syphilis testing, recent screening rates comparable across Southern states are not known. The purpose of this study is to measure syphilis screening among Medicaid enrollees with delivery in states in the U.S. South. METHODS: A total of 6 state-university research partnerships in the U.S. South developed a distributed research network to analyze Medicaid claims data using a common analytic approach for enrollees with delivery in fiscal years 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 (combined N=504,943). In 2020-2021, each state calculated the percentage of enrollees with delivery with a syphilis screen test during the first trimester, third trimester, and at any point during pregnancy. Percentages for those with first-trimester enrollment were compared with the percentages of those who enrolled in Medicaid later in pregnancy. RESULTS: Prenatal syphilis screening during pregnancy ranged from 56% to 91%. Screening was higher among those enrolled in Medicaid during the first trimester than in those enrolled later in pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Despite state laws requiring syphilis screening during pregnancy, screening was much lower than 100%, and states varied in syphilis screening rates among Medicaid enrollees. Findings indicate that access to Medicaid in the first trimester is associated with higher rates of syphilis screening and that efforts to improve access to screening in practice settings are needed.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance and complexity of a country's ability to effectively respond. The Joint External Evaluation (JEE) assessment was launched in 2016 to assess a country's ability to prevent, detect and respond to public health emergencies. We examined whether JEE indicators could be used to predict a country's COVID-19 response performance to tailor a country's support more effectively. DESIGN: From April to August 2020, we conducted interviews with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention country offices that requested COVID-19 support and previously completed the JEE (version 1.0). We used an assessment tool, the 'Emergency Response Capacity Tool' (ERCT), to assess COVID-19 response performance. We analysed 28 ERCT indicators aligned with eight JEE indicators to assess concordance and discordance using strict agreement and weighted kappa statistics. Generalised estimating equation (GEE) models were used to generate predicted probabilities for ERCT scores using JEE scores as the independent model variable. RESULTS: Twenty-three countries met inclusion criteria. Of the 163 indicators analysed, 42.3% of JEE and ERCT scores were in agreement (p value=0.02). The JEE indicator with the highest agreement (62%) was 'Emergency Operations Center (EOC) operating procedures and plans', while the lowest (16%) was 'capacity to activate emergency operations'. Findings were consistent with weighted kappa statistics. In the GEE model, EOC operating procedures and plans had the highest predicted probability (0.86), while indicators concerning response strategy and coordination had the lowest (≤0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, there was low agreement between JEE scores and COVID-19 response performance, with JEE scores often trending higher. JEE indicators concerning coordination and operations were least predictive of COVID-19 response performance, underscoring the importance of not inferring country response readiness from JEE scores alone. More in-depth country-specific investigations are likely needed to accurately estimate response capacity and tailor countries' global health security activities.

Background: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focussed on high-income settings. Methods: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration and whether physical) vary across income settings. Results: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age-groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, with low-income settings characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income-strata on the frequency, duration and type of contacts individuals made. Conclusions: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens, as well as the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. Funding: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

PURPOSE: We describe here a multicentric community-dwelling cohort of older adults (>60 years of age) established to estimate incidence, study risk factors, healthcare utilisation and economic burden associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in India. PARTICIPANTS: The four sites of this cohort are in northern (Ballabgarh), southern (Chennai), eastern (Kolkata) and western (Pune) parts of India. We enrolled 5336 participants across 4220 households and began surveillance in July 2018 for viral respiratory infections with additional participants enrolled annually. Trained field workers collected data about individual-level and household-level risk factors at enrolment and quarterly assessed frailty and grip strength. Trained nurses surveilled weekly to identify acute respiratory infections (ARI) and clinically assessed individuals to diagnose acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) as per protocol. Nasal and oropharyngeal swabs are collected from all ALRI cases and one-fifth of the other ARI cases for laboratory testing. Cost data of the episode are collected using the WHO approach for estimating the economic burden of seasonal influenza. Handheld tablets with Open Data Kit platform were used for data collection. FINDINGS TO DATE: The attrition of 352 participants due to migration and deaths was offset by enrolling 680 new entrants in the second year. All four sites reported negligible influenza vaccination uptake (0.1%-0.4%), low health insurance coverage (0.4%-22%) and high tobacco use (19%-52%). Ballabgarh had the highest proportion (54.4%) of households in the richest wealth quintile, but reported high solid fuel use (92%). Frailty levels were highest in Kolkata (11.3%) and lowest in Pune (6.8%). The Chennai cohort had highest self-reported morbidity (90.1%). FUTURE PLANS: The findings of this cohort will be used to inform prioritisation of strategies for influenza and RSV control for older adults in India. We also plan to conduct epidemiological studies of SARS-CoV-2 using this platform.

BACKGROUND: Human parainfluenza virus (hPIV) is a common virus in childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI). However, no estimates have been made to quantify the global burden of hPIV in childhood ALRI. We aimed to estimate the global and regional hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality for children younger than 5 years and stratified by 0-5 months, 6-11 months, and 12-59 months of age. METHODS: We did a systematic review of hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2020, found in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, Global Health Library, three Chinese databases, and Google search, and also identified a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies through an international research network. We included studies reporting community incidence of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; hospital admission rates of ALRI or ALRI with hypoxaemia in children with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; proportions of patients with ALRI admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; or in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV. We used a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess risk of bias. We analysed incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs of hPIV-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. Adjustment was made to account for the non-detection of hPIV-4. We estimated hPIV-associated ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and in-hospital deaths using adjusted incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs. We estimated the overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality (both in-hospital and out-hospital mortality) on the basis of the number of in-hospital deaths and care-seeking for child pneumonia. We estimated hPIV-attributable ALRI burden by accounting for attributable fractions for hPIV in laboratory-confirmed hPIV cases and deaths. Sensitivity analyses were done to validate the estimates of overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality and hPIV-attributable ALRI mortality. The systematic review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42019148570). FINDINGS: 203 studies were identified, including 162 hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies and a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies. Globally in 2018, an estimated 18·8 million (uncertainty range 12·8-28·9) ALRI cases, 725 000 (433 000-1 260 000) ALRI hospital admissions, and 34 400 (16 400-73 800) ALRI deaths were attributable to hPIVs among children younger than 5 years. The age-stratified and region-stratified analyses suggested that about 61% (35% for infants aged 0-5 months and 26% for 6-11 months) of the hospital admissions and 66% (42% for infants aged 0-5 months and 24% for 6-11 months) of the in-hospital deaths were in infants, and 70% of the in-hospital deaths were in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Between 73% and 100% (varying by outcome) of the data had a low risk in study design; the proportion was 46-65% for the adjustment for health-care use, 59-77% for patient groups excluded, 54-93% for case definition, 42-93% for sampling strategy, and 67-77% for test methods. Heterogeneity in estimates was found between studies for each outcome. INTERPRETATION: We report the first global burden estimates of hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI in young children. Globally, approximately 13% of ALRI cases, 4-14% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of childhood ALRI mortality were attributable to hPIV. These numbers indicate a potentially notable burden of hPIV in ALRI morbidity and mortality in young children. These estimates should encourage and inform investment to accelerate the development of targeted interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Asthma is one of the most common underlying diseases in women of reproductive age that can lead to potentially serious medical problems during pregnancy and lactation. A group of key stakeholders across multiple relevant disciplines was invited to take part in an effort to prioritize, strategize, and mobilize action steps to fill important gaps in knowledge regarding asthma medication safety in pregnancy and lactation. The stakeholders identified substantial gaps in the literature on the safety of asthma medications used during pregnancy and lactation and prioritized strategies to fill those gaps. Short-term action steps included linking data from existing complementary study designs (US and international claims data, single drug pregnancy registries, case-control studies, and coordinated systematic data systems). Long-term action steps included creating an asthma disease registry, incorporating the disease registry into electronic health record systems, and coordinating care across disciplines. The stakeholders also prioritized establishing new infrastructures/collaborations to perform research in pregnant and lactating women and to include patient perspectives throughout the process. To address the evidence gaps, and aid in populating product labels with data that inform clinical decision making, the consortium developed a plan to systematically obtain necessary data in the most efficient and timely manner.

BACKGROUND: Influenza is a cause of febrile acute respiratory infection (FARI) in India; however, few influenza vaccine trials have been conducted in India. We assessed absolute and relative efficacy of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) and inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) among children aged 2 to 10 years in rural India through a randomized, triple-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted over 2 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In June 2015, children were randomly allocated to LAIV, IIV, intranasal placebo, or inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in a 2:2:1:1 ratio. In June 2016, vaccination was repeated per original allocation. Overall, 3,041 children received LAIV (n = 1,015), IIV (n = 1,010), nasal placebo (n = 507), or IPV (n = 509). Mean age of children was 6.5 years with 20% aged 9 to 10 years. Through weekly home visits, nasal and throat swabs were collected from children with FARI and tested for influenza virus by polymerase chain reaction. The primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated FARI; vaccine efficacy (VE) was calculated using modified intention-to-treat (mITT) analysis by Cox proportional hazards model (PH) for each year. In Year 1, VE was 40.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 25.2 to 51.9) for LAIV and 59.0% (95% CI 47.8 to 67.9) for IIV compared with controls; relative efficacy of LAIV compared with IIV was -46.2% (95% CI -88.9 to -13.1). In Year 2, VE was 51.9% (95% CI 42.0 to 60.1) for LAIV and 49.9% (95% CI 39.2 to 58.7) for IIV; relative efficacy of LAIV compared with IIV was 4.2% (95% CI -19.9 to 23.5). No serious adverse vaccine-attributable events were reported. Study limitations include differing dosage requirements for children between nasal and injectable vaccines (single dose of LAIV versus 2 doses of IIV) in Year 1 and the fact that immunogenicity studies were not conducted. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that LAIV and IIV vaccines were safe and moderately efficacious against influenza virus infection among Indian children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials Registry of India CTRI/2015/06/005902.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on incidence, risk factors and etiology of acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among older adults in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We established a cohort of community dwelling older adults ≥60 years and conducted weekly follow-up for acute respiratory infections (ARI) during 2015-2017. Nurses assessed ARI cases for LRTI, collecting combined nasal/throat swabs from all LRTI cases and an equal number of age- and sex-matched asymptomatic neighbourhood controls. Swabs were tested for influenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV), and parainfluenza viruses (PIV) using polymerase chain reaction. LRTI and virus-specific LRTI incidence was calculated per 1000 person-years. We estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) for risk factors using Poisson regression and calculated etiologic fractions (EF) using adjusted odds ratios for detection of viral pathogens in LRTI cases vs controls. RESULTS: We followed 1403 older adults for 2441 person-years. LRTI and LRTI-associated hospitalization incidences were 248.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 229.3-268.8) and 12.7 (95% CI = 8.9-18.1) per 1000 person-years. Persons with pre-existing chronic bronchitis as compared to those without (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 4.7, 95% CI = 3.9-5.6); aged 65-74 years (IRR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.3-2.0) and ≥75 years (IRR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4-2.4) as compared to 60-64 years; and persons in poorest wealth quintile (IRR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.1-1.8); as compared to those in wealthiest quintile were at higher risk for LRTI. Virus was detected in 10.1% of LRTI cases, most commonly influenza (3.8%) and RSV (3.0%). EF for RSV and influenza virus was 83.9% and 83.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In this rural cohort of older adults, the incidence of LRTI was substantial. Chronic bronchitis was an important risk factor; influenza virus and RSV were major viral pathogens.

We echo Landry Ndriko Mayigane and colleagues’ call (December, 2020)1 for countries to plan and conduct intra-action reviews regularly throughout the COVID-19 response. An intra-action review is a country-led process that reviews past response actions to identify crucial gaps and optimise response plans going forward. WHO guidance for conducting a country COVID-19 intra-action review includes more than 300 discussion questions that can be adapted to a country’s context.2 | | However, given that 26 of 33 countries that have already completed an intra-action review are experiencing ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission at the time of writing,3 the retrospective intra-action review process does not sufficiently address ongoing and protracted response planning. Within this context, we advocate for the inclusion of a prospective response examination in the intra-action review process—ie, examining how to sustain response measures to ensure resiliency and plan effectively for the future.

Pneumococcal carriage studies are important for vaccine introduction and treatment strategies. Pneumococcal carriage rates estimated in this cohort study among children in a rural community of northern India. Between August 2012 and August 2014, trained nurses made weekly home visits to screen enrolled children aged <10 years for acute upper or lower respiratory infections (AURI/ALRI) in Ballabgarh, Haryana. Nasal swab from infants aged <1year and throat swab from children aged ≥1 year were collected. All specimens were cultured for pneumococci; isolates were serotyped and subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility testing. During the study period, 4348 nasal/throat swabs collected from children with clinical features of ARI (836 ALRI, 2492 AURI) and from 1020 asymptomatic children. Overall pneumococcal carriage was 5.1%, the highest carriage rate among children <1 year of age (22.6%). The detection rates were higher among children with ARI (5.6%; 95% CI: 4.8-6.4) than asymptomatic children (3.3%; 95% CI: 2.3-4.6). Among 220 pneumococcal isolates, 42 diverse serotypes were identified, with 6B/C (8.6%), 19A (7.2%), 19F (6.8%), 23F (6.4%), 35A/B/C (6.4%), 15B (5%), 14 (4.5%) and 11A/C/D (3.2%) accounting for 50%. Forty-five percent of the serotypes identified are included in the current formulation of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. Ninety-six percent of isolates were resistant to co-trimoxazole, 9% were resistant to erythromycin, and 10% had intermediate resistance to penicillin with minimum inhibitory concentration ranges (0.125 to 1.5 μg/ml). Pneumococcal detection was relatively low among children in our study community but demonstrated a diverse range of serotypes and half of these serotypes would be covered by the current formulation of 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine.

A workshop "Electronic Health Records and Pulmonary Function Data: Developing an Interoperability Roadmap" was held at the American Thoracic Society 2019 International Conference. "Interoperability" is defined as is the ability of different information-technology systems and software applications to directly communicate, exchange data, and use the information that has been exchanged. At present, pulmonary function test (PFT) equipment is not required to be interoperable with other clinical data systems, including electronic health records (EHRs). For this workshop, we assembled a diverse group of experts and stakeholders, including representatives from patient-advocacy groups, adult and pediatric general and pulmonary medicine, informatics, government and healthcare organizations, pulmonary function laboratories, and EHR and PFT equipment and software companies. The participants were tasked with two overarching Aobjectives: 1) identifying the key obstacles to achieving interoperability of PFT systems and the EHR and 2) recommending solutions to the identified obstacles. Successful interoperability of PFT data with the EHR impacts the full scope of individual patient health and clinical care, population health, and research. The existing EHR-PFT device platforms lack sufficient data standardization to promote interoperability. Cost is a major obstacle to PFT-EHR interoperability, and incentives are insufficient to justify the needed investment. The current vendor-EHR system lacks sufficient flexibility, thereby impeding interoperability. To advance the goal of achieving interoperability, next steps include identifying and standardizing priority PFT data elements. To increase the motivation of stakeholders to invest in this effort, it is necessary to demonstrate the benefits of PFT interoperability across patient care and population health.

BACKGROUND: Encephalitis is a severe neurological syndrome associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The California Encephalitis Project (CEP) enrolled patients for more than a decade. A subset of patients with acute and fulminant cerebral edema was noted. METHODS: All pediatric encephalitis patients with cerebral edema referred to the CEP between 1998 and 2012 were reviewed. A case definition was developed for acute fulminant cerebral edema (AFCE) that included the CEP case definition for encephalitis and progression to diffuse cerebral edema on neuroimaging and/or autopsy, and no other recognized etiology for cerebral edema (eg, organic, metabolic, toxin). Prodromic features, demographic and laboratory data, neuroimaging, and outcomes were compared with non-AFCE encephalitis cases. RESULTS: Of 1955 pediatric cases referred to the CEP, 30 (1.5%) patients met the AFCE case definition. The median age for AFCE and non-AFCE cases was similar: 8.2 years (1-18 years) and 8.0 years (0.5-18 years), respectively. Asian-Pacific Islanders comprised a larger proportion of AFCE cases (44%) compared with non-AFCE cases (14%, P < .01). AFCE cases often had a prodrome of high fever, vomiting, and profound headache. Mortality among AFCE patients was significantly higher than among non-AFCE patients (80% vs 13%, P < .01). A confirmed etiology was identified in only 2 cases (enterovirus, human herpes virus type 6), while 10 others had evidence of a respiratory pathogen.Thirty pediatric patients referred to the California Encephalitis Project with a unique, and often fatal, form of encephalitis are reported. Demographic and clinical characteristics, possible etiologies and a proposed case definition for acute fulminant cerebral edema (AFCE) are described. CONCLUSIONS: AFCE is a recently recognized phenotype of encephalitis with a high mortality. AFCE may be triggered by common pediatric infections. Here, we propose a case definition.

Background: Influenza causes substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide, however, reliable burden estimates from developing countries are limited, including India. We aimed to quantify influenza-associated mortality for India utilizing 2010-2013 nationally representative data sources for influenza virus circulation and deaths. Methods: Virological data were obtained from the influenza surveillance network of 10 laboratories led by National Institute of Virology, Pune covering eight states from 2010-2013. Death data were obtained from the nationally representative Sample Registration System for the same time period. Generalized linear regression with negative binomial distribution was used to model weekly respiratory and circulatory deaths by age group and proportion of specimens positive for influenza by subtype; excess deaths above the seasonal baseline were taken as an estimate of influenza-associated mortality counts and rates. Annual excess death rates and the 2011 India Census data were used to estimate national influenza-associated deaths. Results: Estimated annual influenza-associated respiratory mortality rates were highest for those >/=65 years (51.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 9.2-93.0 deaths/100 000 population) followed by those <5 years (9.8, 95% CI = 0-21.8/100 000). Influenza-associated circulatory death rates were also higher among those >/=65 years (71.8, 95% CI = 7.9-135.8/100 000) as compared to those aged <65 years (1.9, 95% CI = 0-4.6/100 000). Across all age groups, a mean of 127 092 (95% CI = 64 046-190,139) annual influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory deaths may occur in India. Conclusions: Estimated influenza-associated mortality in India was high among children <5 years and adults >/=65 years. These estimates may inform strategies for influenza prevention and control in India, such as possible vaccine introduction.

While there have been no cases of type-2 wild poliovirus for over 20 years, transmission of type-2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) and associated paralytic cases in several continents represent a threat to eradication. The withdrawal of the type-2 component of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) was implemented in April 2016 to stop VDPV2 emergence and secure eradication of all poliovirus type 2. Globally, children born after this date have limited immunity to prevent transmission. Using a statistical model, we estimate the emergence date and source of VDPV2s detected between May 2016 and November 2019. Outbreak response campaigns with monovalent OPV2 are the only available method to induce immunity to prevent transmission. Yet, our analysis shows that using monovalent OPV2 is generating more paralytic VDPV2 outbreaks with the potential for establishing endemic transmission. The novel OPV2 is urgently required, alongside a contingency strategy if this vaccine does not materialize or perform as anticipated.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018. METHODS: We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. FINDINGS: In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109.5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63.1-190.6), 10.1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6.8-15.1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION: A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.