Last data update: Nov 04, 2024. (Total: 48056 publications since 2009)
Records 1-21 (of 21 Records) |
Query Trace: Kinsey J[original query] |
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Challenges of COVID-19 case forecasting in the US, 2020-2021
Lopez VK , Cramer EY , Pagano R , Drake JM , O'Dea EB , Adee M , Ayer T , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller PP , Xiao J , Bracher J , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Ray EL , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Pei S , Shaman J , Yamana TK , Tarasewicz SR , Wilson DJ , Baccam S , Gurung H , Stage S , Suchoski B , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang L , Wang Y , Yu S , Gardner L , Jindal S , Marshall M , Nixon K , Dent J , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Smith CP , Truelove S , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Karlen D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Osthus D , Bian J , Cao W , Gao Z , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Walraven R , Chen J , Gu Q , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Gibson GC , Sheldon D , Srivastava A , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis B , Marathe M , Peddireddy AS , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Wang L , Prasad PV , Walker JW , Webber AE , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG , Johansson MA . PLoS Comput Biol 2024 20 (5) e1011200 During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making. |
Pre-exposure prophylaxis care cascade among men who have sex with men engaging in partner notification services at a sexually transmitted infections clinic
Le Brazidec DL , Cormier K , Almonte A , Napoleon S , Chambers LC , Tao J , Bertrand TE , Gummo CL , Beltrami J , Kinsey J , Maguire-Wilkerson A , Chan PA . AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses 2024 Partner notification services (PNS) offers opportunities to discuss HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and provide referrals. We evaluated the PrEP care cascade among men who have sex with men (MSM) engaging in PNS within a sexually transmitted infections clinic. Among 121 MSM eligible for PrEP during PNS, 21% subsequently initiated PrEP. |
Naegleria fowleri detected in Grand Teton National Park Hot Springs
Barnhart EP , Kinsey SM , Wright PR , Caldwell SL , Hill V , Kahler A , Mattioli M , Cornman RS , Iwanowicz D , Eddy Z , Halonen S , Mueller R , Peyton BM , Puzon GJ . ACS ES and T Water 2023 The free-living thermophilic amoeba Naegleria fowleri (N. fowleri) causes the highly fatal disease primary amoebic meningoencephalitis. The environmental conditions that are favorable to the growth and proliferation of N. fowleri are not well-defined, especially in northern regions of the United States. In this study, we used culture-based methods and multiple molecular approaches to detect and analyzeN. fowleri and other Naegleria spp. in water, sediment, and biofilm samples from five hot spring sites in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, U.S.A. These results provide the first detections of N. fowleri in Grand Teton National Park and provide new insights into the distribution of pathogenic N. fowleri and other nonpathogenic Naegleria spp. in natural thermal water systems in northern latitudes. © 2024 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society. |
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Howerton E , Contamin L , Mullany LC , Qin M , Reich NG , Bents S , Borchering RK , Jung SM , Loo SL , Smith CP , Levander J , Kerr J , Espino J , van Panhuis WG , Hochheiser H , Galanti M , Yamana T , Pei S , Shaman J , Rainwater-Lovett K , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Shin L , Lemaitre JC , Kaminsky J , Hulse JD , Lee EC , McKee CD , Hill A , Karlen D , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Rosenstrom ET , Ivy JS , Mayorga ME , Swann JL , España G , Cavany S , Moore S , Perkins A , Hladish T , Pillai A , Ben Toh K , Longini I Jr , Chen S , Paul R , Janies D , Thill JC , Bouchnita A , Bi K , Lachmann M , Fox SJ , Meyers LA , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Hurt B , Chen J , Mortveit H , Wilson A , Marathe M , Hoops S , Bhattacharya P , Machi D , Cadwell BL , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Truelove S , Runge MC , Shea K , Viboud C , Lessler J . Nat Commun 2023 14 (1) 7260 Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections. |
Notes from the field: Mycobacterium abscessus outbreak related to contaminated water among ventilator-dependent residents of a pediatric facility - Pennsylvania, 2022
Sinkevitch JN , Paoline J , Smee A , Jones S , Spicer K , Gable P , Houston H , Stevens V , Bicking Kinsey C . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (42) 1151-1152 Mycobacterium abscessus, a nontuberculous mycobacterium found in water and soil, is an opportunistic pathogen responsible for waterborne illness outbreaks in health care settings (1). On September 29, 2022, the Pennsylvania Department of Health (PADOH) received notification of M. abscessus–positive respiratory isolates from ventilator-dependent residents of a 34-bed pediatric facility. The facility is licensed for residential services, but not as a health care facility. A case was defined as the first M. abscessus–positive culture identified from a resident of this facility during March–August 2022. Three cases were identified: two colonizations and one clinical infection. PADOH investigated this outbreak to identify risk factors and recommend infection prevention and control (IPC) measures. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination (preprint)
Truelove S , Smith CP , Qin M , Mullany LC , Borchering RK , Lessler J , Shea K , Howerton E , Contamin L , Levander J , Salerno J , Hochheiser H , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Shin L , Rainwater-Lovett K , Lemaitre JC , Dent J , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Perez-Saez J , Hill A , Karlen D , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Piontti APY , Vespignani A , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Schlitt J , Corbett P , Telionis PA , Wang L , Peddireddy AS , Hurt B , Chen J , Vullikanti A , Marathe M , Hoops S , Bhattacharya P , Machi D , Chen S , Paul R , Janies D , Thill JC , Galanti M , Yamana T , Pei S , Shaman J , Reich NG , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M , Johansson MA , Runge MC , Viboud C . medRxiv 2021 WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC? The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT? Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE? Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen. |
Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study (preprint)
Borchering RK , Mullany LC , Howerton E , Chinazzi M , Smith CP , Qin M , Reich NG , Contamin L , Levander J , Kerr J , Espino J , Hochheiser H , Lovett K , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Shin L , Lemaitre JC , Hulse JD , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Pastore y Piontti A , Vespignani A , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Hurt B , Chen J , Mortveit H , Wilson A , Marathe M , Hoops S , Bhattacharya P , Machi D , Chen S , Paul R , Janies D , Thill JC , Galanti M , Yamana T , Pei S , Shaman J , Espana G , Cavany S , Moore S , Perkins A , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Shea K , Truelove SA , Runge MC , Viboud C , Lessler J . medRxiv 2022 10 Background SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches. Findings Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts. Conclusions Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license. |
Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study.
Borchering RK , Mullany LC , Howerton E , Chinazzi M , Smith CP , Qin M , Reich NG , Contamin L , Levander J , Kerr J , Espino J , Hochheiser H , Lovett K , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Shin L , Lemaitre JC , Hulse JD , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Hill AL , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Hurt B , Chen J , Mortveit H , Wilson A , Marathe M , Hoops S , Bhattacharya P , Machi D , Chen S , Paul R , Janies D , Thill JC , Galanti M , Yamana T , Pei S , Shaman J , España G , Cavany S , Moore S , Perkins A , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Shea K , Truelove SA , Runge MC , Viboud C , Lessler J . Lancet Reg Health Am 2023 17 100398 BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. METHODS: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. FINDINGS: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. INTERPRETATION: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. FUNDING: Various (see acknowledgments). |
Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.
Truelove S , Smith CP , Qin M , Mullany LC , Borchering RK , Lessler J , Shea K , Howerton E , Contamin L , Levander J , Salerno J , Hochheiser H , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Shin L , Rainwater-Lovett K , Lemairtre JC , Dent Hulse J , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Perez-Saez J , Hill A , Karlen D , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Orr M , Harrison G , Hurt B , Chen J , Vullikanti A , Marathe M , Hoops S , Bhattacharya P , Machi D , Chen S , Paul R , Janies D , Thill JC , Galanti M , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman JL , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M , Johansson MA , Runge MC , Viboud C . Elife 2022 11 In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-10 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced six-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, though may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022 119 (15) e2113561119 SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action. |
Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios - United States, April-September 2021.
Borchering RK , Viboud C , Howerton E , Smith CP , Truelove S , Runge MC , Reich NG , Contamin L , Levander J , Salerno J , van Panhuis W , Kinsey M , Tallaksen K , Obrecht RF , Asher L , Costello C , Kelbaugh M , Wilson S , Shin L , Gallagher ME , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Lemaitre JC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Kaminsky J , Lauer SA , Lee EC , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Keegan LT , Karlen D , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Xiong X , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Srivastava A , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Adiga A , Lewis B , Klahn B , Outten J , Schlitt J , Corbett P , Telionis PA , Wang L , Peddireddy AS , Hurt B , Chen J , Vullikanti A , Marathe M , Healy JM , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M , Johansson MA , Shea K , Lessler J . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021 70 (19) 719-724 After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation of COVID-19 prevention strategies such as those for businesses, large-scale gatherings, and educational activities. To provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub teams used a multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness estimates and strength and implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, such as physical distancing and masking) over a 6-month period (April-September 2021) using data available through March 27, 2021 (4). Among the four scenarios, an accelerated decline in NPI adherence (which encapsulates NPI mandates and population behavior) was shown to undermine vaccination-related gains over the subsequent 2-3 months and, in combination with increased transmissibility of new variants, could lead to surges in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. A sharp decline in cases was projected by July 2021, with a faster decline in the high-vaccination scenarios. High vaccination rates and compliance with public health prevention measures are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months. |
Outbreaks of adenovirus-associated respiratory illness on five college campuses in the United States.
Kujawski SA , Lu X , Schneider E , Blythe D , Boktor S , Farrehi J , Haupt T , McBride D , Stephens E , Sakthivel SK , Bachaus B , Waller K , Bauman L , Marconi A , Lewis R , Dettinger L , Ernst R , Kinsey W , Lindstrom S , Gerber SI , Watson JT , Biggs HM . Clin Infect Dis 2020 72 (11) 1992-1999 BACKGROUND: Human adenoviruses (HAdVs) are commonly associated with acute respiratory illness. HAdV outbreaks are well documented in congregate military training settings, but less is known about outbreaks on college campuses. During fall 2018 and spring 2019, five U.S. colleges reported increases in HAdV-associated respiratory illness. Investigations were performed to better understand HAdV epidemiology in this setting. METHODS: A case was a student at one of the five colleges with acute respiratory illness and laboratory-confirmed HAdV infection during October 2018-December 2018 or March-May 2019. Available respiratory specimens were typed by HAdV type-specific real-time PCR assays, and for a subset, whole genome sequencing was performed. We reviewed available medical records and cases were invited to complete a questionnaire, which included questions on symptom presentation, social history, and absenteeism. RESULTS: We identified 168 HAdV cases. Median age was 19 (range: 17-22) years and 102 cases (61%) were male. Eleven cases were hospitalized, 10 with pneumonia; two cases died. Among questionnaire respondents, 80% (75/94) missed >/=1 day of class because of their illness. Among those with a type identified (79%), HAdV types 4 and 7 were equally detected, with frequency of each varying by site. Genome types 4a1 and 7d were identified, respectively, by whole genome sequence analysis. CONCLUSIONS: HAdV respiratory illness was associated with substantial morbidity and missed class time among young, generally healthy adults on five U.S. college campuses. HAdVs should be considered a cause of respiratory illness outbreaks in congregate settings such as college campuses. |
Get in, get tested, get care: STD services in urban urgent care centers
Williams SP , Kinsey J , Carry MG , Terry L , Wells J , Kroeger K . Sex Transm Dis 2019 46 (10) 648-653 BACKGROUND: Recent evidence indicates increased use of urgent care centers (UCCs) for STD testing. We sought to learn more about STD services in UCCs in a large metropolitan area. METHOD: Using a modified rapid gap assessment approach, we interviewed staff from 19 UCCs in metro Atlanta, GA USA. The UCCs were identified using two online search engines. We focused on a 50-mile radius around Atlanta. We then excluded duplicates and closed UCCs, and ones outside Atlanta's five contiguous counties. Using a prioritization process, we visited UCCs in or adjacent to areas with mid-high local STD morbidity, or facilities from which STD cases were reported the year prior. We collected checklist-based data on STD testing, treatment and preventive services, as well as supportive services (e.g., substance use/mental health referrals). Checklist data, notes, and open-ended questions were summarized and analyzed descriptively. RESULTS: All UCCs (n=19) reported offering basic to comprehensive STD testing. Although most could treat on-site for chlamydia and gonorrhea, most relied on referrals, or prescriptions and "return to facility" practices to treat syphilis. Sources for STD information/management included the HD/CDC, online medical sites, and EMR embedded information. Challenges UCCs acknowledged included staying up-to-date with treatment guidance and lab reporting requirements, inadequate time for sexual risk reduction counseling, and linking patients with extended care needs (e.g., HIV+ case management, supportive services), or following up with patients. CONCLUSIONS: Urgent cares are STD testing resources. Service availability varies, but opportunities exists to enhance STD services in UCC settings and in communities. |
The use of technology for STD partner services in the United States: A structured review
Kachur R , Hall W , Coor A , Kinsey J , Collins D , Strona FV . Sex Transm Dis 2018 45 (11) 707-712 BACKGROUND: Since the late 1990s, health departments and STD programs throughout the U.S. have used technologies, such as the internet and mobile phones, to provide services to persons with a sexually transmitted infection, including HIV, and their sex partners, also known as partner services. This study reviewed the published literature to assess and compare partner services outcomes as a result of using technology and to calculate cost savings through cases averted. METHODS: We conducted a structured literature review of all U.S. studies that examined the use of technology to notify persons exposed to an STD (syphilis, chlamydia, gonorrhea), including HIV, by health care professionals in the U.S. from 2000 to 2017. Outcome measures, including the number of the number of partners notified, screened or tested; and new positives identified, were captured and cost savings were calculated, when data were available. RESULTS: Seven studies were identified. Methods used for partner services differed across studies, although email was the primary mode in 6 (83%) of the 7 studies. Only 2 of the 7 studies compared use of technology for partner services to traditional partner services. Between 10% and 97% of partners were successfully notified of their exposure through the use of technology and between 34% and 81% were screened or tested. Five studies reported on new infections identified, which ranged from 3-19. Use of technology for partner serves saved programs between $22,795 and $45,362 in direct and indirect medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: Use of technology for partner services increased the number of partners notified, screened or tested, and new infections found. Importantly, the use of technology allowed programs to reach partners who otherwise would not have been notified of their exposure to an STD or HIV. Improved response times and time to treatment were also seen as was re-engagement into care for previous HIV positive patients. Data and outcome measures across the studies were not standardized, making it difficult to generalize conclusions. Although not a replacement for traditional partner services, the use of technology enhances partner service outcomes. |
Pseudomonas aeruginosa outbreak in a neonatal intensive care unit attributed to hospital tap water
Bicking Kinsey C , Koirala S , Solomon B , Rosenberg J , Robinson BF , Neri A , Laufer Halpin A , Arduino MJ , Moulton-Meissner H , Noble-Wang J , Chea N , Gould CV . Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017 38 (7) 1-8 OBJECTIVE To investigate an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections and colonization in a neonatal intensive care unit. DESIGN Infection control assessment, environmental evaluation, and case-control study. SETTING Newly built community-based hospital, 28-bed neonatal intensive care unit. PATIENTS Neonatal intensive care unit patients receiving care between June 1, 2013, and September 30, 2014. METHODS Case finding was performed through microbiology record review. Infection control observations, interviews, and environmental assessment were performed. A matched case-control study was conducted to identify risk factors for P. aeruginosa infection. Patient and environmental isolates were collected for pulsed-field gel electrophoresis to determine strain relatedness. RESULTS In total, 31 cases were identified. Case clusters were temporally associated with absence of point-of-use filters on faucets in patient rooms. After adjusting for gestational age, case patients were more likely to have been in a room without a point-of-use filter (odds ratio [OR], 37.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.16-infinity). Case patients had higher odds of exposure to peripherally inserted central catheters (OR, 7.20; 95% CI, 1.75-37.30) and invasive ventilation (OR, 5.79; 95% CI, 1.39-30.62). Of 42 environmental samples, 28 (67%) grew P. aeruginosa. Isolates from the 2 most recent case patients were indistinguishable by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis from water-related samples obtained from these case-patient rooms. CONCLUSIONS This outbreak was attributed to contaminated water. Interruption of the outbreak with point-of-use filters provided a short-term solution; however, eradication of P. aeruginosa in water and fixtures was necessary to protect patients. This outbreak highlights the importance of understanding the risks of stagnant water in healthcare facilities. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;1-8. |
Invasive nontuberculous mycobacterial infections among cardiothoracic surgical patients exposed to heater-cooler devices
Lyman MM , Grigg C , Kinsey CB , Keckler MS , Moulton-Meissner H , Cooper E , Soe MM , Noble-Wang J , Longenberger A , Walker SR , Miller JR , Perz JF , Perkins KM . Emerg Infect Dis 2017 23 (5) 796-805 Invasive nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) infections may result from a previously unrecognized source of transmission, heater-cooler devices (HCDs) used during cardiac surgery. In July 2015, the Pennsylvania Department of Health notified the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about a cluster of NTM infections among cardiothoracic surgical patients at 1 hospital. We conducted a case-control study to identify exposures causing infection, examining 11 case-patients and 48 control-patients. Eight (73%) case-patients had a clinical specimen identified as Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC). HCD exposure was associated with increased odds of invasive NTM infection; laboratory testing identified patient isolates and HCD samples as closely related strains of M. chimaera, a MAC species. This investigation confirmed a large US outbreak of invasive MAC infections in a previously unaffected patient population and suggested transmission occurred by aerosolization from HCDs. Recommendations have been issued for enhanced surveillance to identify potential infections associated with HCDs and measures to mitigate transmission risk. |
Assessment of awareness and preparedness of Pennsylvania veterinarians to recognize and respond to foreign animal diseases
Campagnolo ER , Kinsey CB , Beaudoin A , Long J . J Homel Secur Emerg Manag 2016 13 (2) 279-294 Foreign animal diseases (FADs) are recognized as a threat to agriculture, with potential devastating effects on our nation's livestock and poultry industries. As weapons of bioterrorism, FADs also represent a threat to our nation's homeland security. Veterinarians play a vital role in protecting our nation's agricultural resources through their ability to identify and promptly respond to FADs, some of which are of public health concern. Veterinarians working in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania were surveyed to assess their awareness of FADs and their preparedness to recognize and respond to potential cases. Two hundred thirty-seven veterinary practitioners completed an online questionnaire which included demographic and practice characteristics, federal accreditation status, awareness of FAD history in the United States, awareness of current FAD threats, training, and professional experiences with FADs. In the analysis, we identified topics respondents were most familiar, and those which they feel pose the greatest disease threat. We also assessed respondents' interest in receiving supplemental training on FADs. Results of this survey indicate that most participating Pennsylvania veterinarians are familiar with FADs and have had educational exposure to FADs either during their formal veterinary education or through the United States Department of Agriculture veterinary accreditation program. However, the majority feels unprepared to recognize FADs. Most survey respondents expressed an interest in receiving supplemental training on FADs, and were willing to travel to receive the training. |
The role of behavioral counseling in sexually transmitted disease prevention program settings
Brookmeyer KA , Hogben M , Kinsey J . Sex Transm Dis 2015 43 S102-12 BACKGROUND: Behavioral counseling for sexually transmitted disease (STD) prevention is recommended for persons at risk, and the body of evidence yields numerous interventions that have STD preventive efficacy. What is needed is a review of the subset of these interventions that could be feasible in clinical settings, especially settings in STD prevention programs. METHODS: We reviewed existing systematic reviews of the literature and abstracted from them studies that fit the following criteria in that the interventions: (1) used no more than 60 minutes of contact time in 1 to 2 sessions, (2) were individual level and face to face, (3) took place in a clinical setting, (4) had STD outcomes available, (5) were based in the United States, (6) were peer reviewed, and (7) had a control group. RESULTS: From 6 reviews (published 2006–2014) covering 91 studies, we found 13 analyses representing 11 intervention studies that fit the selection criteria. Of these 13, 5 returned lower STD rates in the intervention group at follow-up; one study reported a higher rate of STD in one subset of the intervention group (men who have sex with men). Studies with effects on STD at follow-up were quite similar to studies across populations, settings, and follow-up periods, although successful interventions were more likely to demonstrate behavioral effects as well (5/5 vs. 2/5 among 10 interventions measuring behavior change). CONCLUSIONS: Counseling is likely to benefit some STD clinic attendees, although unlikely to benefit men who have sex with men. The balance of costs and benefits of implementing behavioral counseling in STD programs is unclear, but feasibility would be improved if behavioral counseling were implemented in the context of other prevention efforts. Because populations outside typical STD clinic settings could also benefit, programs may exercise a valuable role through partnerships. |
Public health response to commercial airline travel of a person with Ebola virus infection - United States, 2014
Regan JJ , Jungerman R , Montiel SH , Newsome K , Objio T , Washburn F , Roland E , Petersen E , Twentyman E , Olaiya O , Naughton M , Alvarado-Ramy F , Lippold SA , Tabony L , McCarty CL , Kinsey CB , Barnes M , Black S , Azzam I , Stanek D , Sweitzer J , Valiani A , Kohl KS , Brown C , Pesik N . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2015 64 (3) 63-6 Before the current Ebola epidemic in West Africa, there were few documented cases of symptomatic Ebola patients traveling by commercial airline, and no evidence of transmission to passengers or crew members during airline travel. In July 2014 two persons with confirmed Ebola virus infection who were infected early in the Nigeria outbreak traveled by commercial airline while symptomatic, involving a total of four flights (two international flights and two Nigeria domestic flights). It is not clear what symptoms either of these two passengers experienced during flight; however, one collapsed in the airport shortly after landing, and the other was documented to have fever, vomiting, and diarrhea on the day the flight arrived. Neither infected passenger transmitted Ebola to other passengers or crew on these flights. In October 2014, another airline passenger, a U.S. health care worker who had traveled domestically on two commercial flights, was confirmed to have Ebola virus infection. Given that the time of onset of symptoms was uncertain, an Ebola airline contact investigation in the United States was conducted. In total, follow-up was conducted for 268 contacts in nine states, including all 247 passengers from both flights, 12 flight crew members, eight cleaning crew members, and one federal airport worker (81 of these contacts were documented in a report published previously). All contacts were accounted for by state and local jurisdictions and followed until completion of their 21-day incubation periods. No secondary cases of Ebola were identified in this investigation, confirming that transmission of Ebola during commercial air travel did not occur. |
Preparing for human papillomavirus vaccine introduction in Kenya: implications from focus-group and interview discussions with caregivers and opinion leaders in western Kenya
Friedman AL , Oruko KO , Habel MA , Ford J , Kinsey J , Odhiambo F , Phillips-Howard PA , Wang SA , Collins T , Laserson KF , Dunne EF . BMC Public Health 2014 14 855 BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer claims the lives of 275,000 women each year; most of these deaths occur in low-or middle-income countries. In Kenya, cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality among women of reproductive age. Kenya's Ministry of Public Health and Sanitation has developed a comprehensive strategy to prevent cervical cancer, which includes plans for vaccinating preteen girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) by 2015. To identify HPV vaccine communication and mobilization needs, this research sought to understand HPV vaccine-related perceptions and concerns of male and female caregivers and community leaders in four rural communities of western Kenya. METHODS: We conducted five focus groups with caregivers (n = 56) and 12 key-informant interviews with opinion leaders to explore cervical cancer-related knowledge, attitudes and beliefs, as well as acceptability of HPV vaccination for 9-12 year-old girls. Four researchers independently reviewed the data and developed codes based on questions in interview guides and topics that emerged organically, before comparing and reconciling results through a group consensus process. RESULTS: Cervical cancer was not commonly recognized, though it was understood generally in terms of its symptoms. By association with cancer and genital/reproductive organs, cervical cancer was feared and stigmatized. Overall acceptability of a vaccine that prevents cervical cancer was high, so long as it was endorsed by trusted agencies and communities were sensitized first. Some concerns emerged related to vaccine safety (e.g., impact on fertility), program intent, and health equity. CONCLUSION: For successful vaccine introduction in Kenya, there is a need for communication and mobilization efforts to raise cervical cancer awareness; prompt demand for vaccination; address health equity concerns and stigma; and minimize potential resistance. Visible endorsement by government leaders and community influencers can provide reassurance of the vaccine's safety, efficacy and benefits for girls and communities. Involvement of community leadership, parents and champions may also be critical for combatting stigma and making cervical cancer relevant to Kenyan communities. These findings underscore the need for adequate planning and resources for information, education and communication prior to vaccine introduction. Specific recommendations for communication and social-marketing strategies are made. |
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