With influenza vaccination rates in the United States recently exceeding 45% of the population, it is important to understand the impact that vaccination is having on influenza transmission. In this study, we used a Bayesian modeling approach, combined with a simple dynamical model of influenza transmission, to estimate this impact. The combined framework synthesized evidence from a range of data sources relating to influenza transmission and vaccination in the United States. We found that, for seasonal epidemics, the number of infections averted ranged from 9.6 million in the 2006-2007 season (95% credible interval (CI): 8.7, 10.9) to 37.2 million (95% CI: 34.1, 39.6) in the 2012-2013 season. Expressed in relative terms, the proportion averted ranged from 20.8% (95% CI: 16.8, 24.3) of potential infections in the 2011-2012 season to 47.5% (95% CI: 43.7, 50.8) in the 2008-2009 season. The percentage averted was only 1.04% (95% CI: 0.15, 3.2) for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, owing to the late timing of the vaccination program in relation to the pandemic in the Northern hemisphere. In the future, further vaccination coverage, as well as improved influenza vaccines (especially those offering better protection in the elderly), could have an even stronger effect on annual influenza epidemics.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal inactivated influenza vaccination among pregnant women using data from three recent influenza seasons in the United States. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We developed a decision-analytic model following a cohort of 5.2 million pregnant women and their infants aged <6 months to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating women against seasonal influenza during pregnancy from a societal perspective. The main outcome measures were quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and cost-effectiveness ratios. Data sources included surveillance data, epidemiological studies, and published vaccine cost data. Sensitivity analyses were also performed. All costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% annually. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total costs (direct and indirect), effects (QALY gains, averted case numbers), and incremental cost-effectiveness of seasonal inactivated influenza vaccination among pregnant women (cost per QALY gained). RESULTS: Using a recent benchmark of 52.2% vaccination coverage among pregnant women, we studied a hypothetical cohort of 2,753,015 vaccinated pregnant women. With an estimated vaccine effectiveness of 73% among pregnant women and 63% among infants <6 months, QALY gains for each season were 305 (2010-2011), 123 (2011-2012), and 610 (2012-2013). Compared with no vaccination, seasonal influenza vaccination during pregnancy was cost-saving when using data from the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza seasons. The cost-effectiveness ratio was greater than $100,000/QALY with the 2011-2012 influenza season data, when CDC reported a low attack rate compared to other recent seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination for pregnant women can reduce morbidity from influenza in both pregnant women and their infants aged <6 months. Seasonal influenza vaccination during pregnancy is cost-saving during moderate to severe influenza seasons.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza causes considerable morbidity and mortality across all age groups, and influenza vaccination was recommended in 2010 for all persons aged 6 months and above. We estimated the averted costs due to influenza vaccination, taking into account the seasonal economic burden of the disease. METHODS: We used recently published values for averted outcomes due to influenza vaccination for influenza seasons 2005-06, 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09, and age cohorts 6 months-4 years, 5-19 years, 20-64 years, and 65 years and above. Costs were calculated according to a payer and societal perspective (in 2009 US$), and took into account medical costs and productivity losses. RESULTS: When taking into account direct medical costs (payer perspective), influenza vaccination was cost saving only for the older age group (65≥) in seasons 2005-06 and 2007-08. Using the same perspective, influenza vaccination resulted in total costs of $US 1.7 billion (95%CI: $US 0.3-4.0 billion) in 2006-07 and $US 1.8 billion (95%CI: $US 0.1-4.1 billion) in 2008-09. When taking into account a societal perspective (and including the averted lost earnings due to premature death) averted deaths in the older age group influenced the results, resulting in cost savings for all ages combined in season 07-08. DISCUSSION: Influenza vaccination was cost saving in the older age group (65≥) when taking into account productivity losses and, in some seasons, when taking into account medical costs only. Averted costs vary significantly per season; however, in seasons where the averted burden of deaths is high in the older age group, averted productivity losses due to premature death tilt overall seasonal results towards savings. Indirect vaccination effects and the possibility of diminished case severity due to influenza vaccination were not considered, thus the averted burden due to influenza vaccine may be even greater than reported.

BACKGROUND: Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is substantial, yet quantitative estimates of the benefit of annual vaccination programs on influenza-associated mortality are lacking. METHODS: We estimated the numbers of deaths averted by vaccination in four age groups (0.5 to 4, 5 to 19, 20 to 64 and ≥65 yrs.) for the nine influenza seasons from 2005/6 through 2013/14. These estimates were obtained using a Monte Carlo approach applied to weekly U.S. age group-specific estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, monthly vaccination coverage estimates and summary seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates to obtain estimates of the number of deaths averted by vaccination. The estimates are conservative as they do not include indirect vaccination effects. RESULTS: From August, 2005 through June, 2014, we estimated that 40,127 (95% confidence interval [CI] 25,694 to 59,210) deaths were averted by influenza vaccination. We found that of all studied seasons the most deaths were averted by influenza vaccination during the 2012/13 season (9398; 95% CI 2,386 to 19,897) and the fewest during the 2009/10 pandemic (222; 95% CI 79 to 347). Of all influenza-associated deaths averted, 88.9% (95% CI 83 to 92.5%) were in people ≥65 yrs. old. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated number of deaths averted by the US annual influenza vaccination program is considerable, especially among elderly adults and even when vaccine effectiveness is modest, such as in the 2012/13 season. As indirect effects ("herd immunity") of vaccination are ignored, these estimates represent lower bound estimates and are thus conservative given valid excess mortality estimates.

Co-circulation of influenza A(H5N1) and seasonal influenza viruses among humans and animals could lead to co-infections, reassortment, and emergence of novel viruses with pandemic potential. We assessed the timing of subtype H5N1 outbreaks among poultry, human H5N1 cases, and human seasonal influenza in 8 countries that reported 97% of all human H5N1 cases and 90% of all poultry H5N1 outbreaks. In these countries, most outbreaks among poultry (7,001/11,331, 62%) and half of human cases (313/625, 50%) occurred during January-March. Human H5N1 cases occurred in 167 (45%) of 372 months during which outbreaks among poultry occurred, compared with 59 (10%) of 574 months that had no outbreaks among poultry. Human H5N1 cases also occurred in 59 (22%) of 267 months during seasonal influenza periods. To reduce risk for co-infection, surveillance and control of H5N1 should be enhanced during January-March, when H5N1 outbreaks typically occur and overlap with seasonal influenza virus circulation.

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual influenza vaccination for all persons aged ≥6 months to reduce morbidity and mortality caused by influenza in the United States. CDC previously developed a model to estimate that annual influenza vaccination resulted in 1.1-6.6 million fewer cases and 7,700-79,000 fewer hospitalizations per season during the 2005-2013 influenza seasons. For the 2013-14 influenza season, using updated estimates of vaccination coverage, vaccine effectiveness, and influenza hospitalizations, CDC estimates that influenza vaccination prevented approximately 7.2 million illnesses, 3.1 million medically attended illnesses, and 90,000 hospitalizations associated with influenza. Similar to prior seasons, fewer than half of persons aged ≥6 months are estimated to have been vaccinated. If influenza vaccination levels had reached the Healthy People 2020 target of 70%, an estimated additional 5.9 million illnesses, 2.3 million medically attended illnesses, and 42,000 hospitalizations associated with influenza might have been averted. For the nation to more fully benefit from influenza vaccines, more effort is needed to reach the Healthy People 2020 target.

We compared influenza vaccine-prevented hospitalizations in adults aged >65 years for a range of hypothetical effectiveness estimates. During 2012-13, a vaccine with 10% effectiveness (66% coverage) would have averted approximately 13,000 hospitalizations and a vaccine with 40% effectiveness would have averted approximately 60,000 hospitalizations. Annual vaccination is merited in this vulnerable population.

BACKGROUND: The disease burden of influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) on the working population has been documented in the literature, but statistical evidence of ILI-related work absenteeism in the USA is limited due to data availability. AIMS: To assess work absenteeism due to ILIs among privately insured employees in the USA in 2007-8 and 2008-9. METHODS: We used the 2007-9 MarketScan(R) research databases. Full-time employees aged 18-64 years, with the ability to incur work absence and continuously enroled in the same insurance plan during each season were included. We identified ILI episodes using ICD-9 codes for influenza and pneumonia (480-487). For each season, we calculated the mean work-loss hours per ILI episode and the proportion of employees who had at least one ILI episode. Work-loss hours and ILI rates were examined by subgroups. RESULTS: The mean number of work hours lost per ILI episode was 23.6 in 2007-8 and 23.9 in 2008-9. The proportion of employees with at least one ILI was 1.7% in 2007-8 and 1.2% in 2008-9. In both seasons, the proportion with ILI was higher among older (2.1 and 1.5%) and hourly workers (2.0 and 1.3%), workers in the southern region (1.9 and 1.3%) and those in oil, gas or mining industries (1.9 and 1.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the disease burden associated with ILIs in the working population is not trivial and deserves attention from policymakers and health care professionals to design effective strategies to reduce this burden.