Hierarchical Bayes models have been used in disease mapping to examine small scale geographic variation. State level geographic variation for less common causes of mortality outcomes have been reported however county level variation is rarely examined. Due to concerns about statistical reliability and confidentiality, county-level mortality rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are suppressed based on Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) statistical reliability criteria, precluding an examination of spatio-temporal variation in less common causes of mortality outcomes such as suicide rates (SRs) at the county level using direct estimates. Existing Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategies can be applied via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) in R to a large number of rare causes of mortality outcomes to enable examination of spatio-temporal variations on smaller geographic scales such as counties. This method allows examination of spatiotemporal variation across the entire U.S., even where the data are sparse. We used mortality data from 2005-2015 to explore spatiotemporal variation in SRs, as one particular application of the Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategy in R-INLA to predict year and county-specific SRs. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models were implemented with spatially structured and unstructured random effects, correlated time effects, time varying confounders and space-time interaction terms in the software R-INLA, borrowing strength across both counties and years to produce smoothed county level SRs. Model-based estimates of SRs were mapped to explore geographic variation.

BACKGROUND: As highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) restores health, fertility and sexual activity among HIV-infected adults, understanding how ART influences reproductive desires and decisions could inform interventions to reduce sexual and vertical HIV transmission risk. METHODS: We performed a qualitative sub-study among a Ugandan cohort of 1,000 adults on ART with four purposively selected categories of participants: pregnant, not pregnant, delivered, and aborted. In-depth interviews examined relationships between HIV, ART and pregnancy, desire for children, perceived risks and benefits of pregnancy, decision-making regarding reproduction and family planning (FP) among 29 women and 16 male partners. Analysis focused on dominant explanations for emerging themes across and within participant groups. RESULTS: Among those who had conceived, most couples stated that their pregnancy was unintentional, and often occurred because they believed that they were infertile due to HIV. Perceived reasons for women not getting pregnant included: ill health (included HIV infection and ART), having enough children, financial constraints, fear of mother-to-child HIV transmission or transmission to partner, death of a child, and health education. Most women reported FP experiences with condoms and hormonal injections only. Men had limited FP information apart from condoms. CONCLUSIONS: Counselling at ART initiation may not be sufficient to enable women who do not desire children to adopt relevant family planning practices. On-going reproductive health education and FP services, with emphasis on the restoration of fertility after ART initiation, should be integrated into ART programs for men and women.

BACKGROUND: Long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on sexual HIV-transmission risk in Africa is unknown. We assessed sexual behavior changes and estimated HIV transmission from HIV-infected adults on ART in Uganda. METHODS: Between 2003 and 2007, we enrolled and followed ART-naive HIV-infected adults in a home-based AIDS program with annual counseling and testing for cohabitating partners, participant transmission risk-reduction plans, condom distribution and prevention support for cohabitating discordant couples. We assessed participants' HIV plasma viral load and partner-specific sexual behaviors. We defined risky sex as intercourse with inconsistent/no condom use with HIV-negative or unknown serostatus partners in previous 3 months. We compared rates using Poisson regression models, estimated transmission risk using established viral load-specific transmission estimates, and documented sero-conversion rates among HIV-discordant couples. RESULTS: Of 928 participants, 755 (81%) had 36 months data: 94 (10%) died and 79 (9%) missing data. Sexual activity increased from 28% (baseline) to 41% [36 months (P < 0.001)]. Of sexually active participants, 22% reported risky sex at baseline, 8% at 6 months (P < 0.001), and 14% at 36 months (P = 0.018). Median viral load among those reporting risky sex was 122 500 [interquartile range (IQR) 45 100-353 000] copies/ml pre-ART at baseline and undetectable at follow-up. One sero-conversion occurred among 62 cohabitating sero-discordant partners (0.5 sero-conversions/100 person-years). At 36 months, consistent condom use was 74% with discordant partners, 55% with unknown and 46% with concordant partners. Estimated HIV transmission risk reduced 91%, from 47.3 to 4.2/1000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: Despite increased sexual activity among HIV-infected Ugandans over 3 years on ART, risky sex and estimated risk of HIV transmission remained lower than baseline levels. Integrated prevention programs could reduce HIV transmission in Africa.

This paper examines HIV risk behavior among HIV-uninfected adults living with people taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Uganda. A prospective cohort of 455 HIV-uninfected non-spousal household members of ART patients receiving home-based AIDS care was enrolled. Sexual behavior, HIV risk perceptions, AIDS-related anxiety, and the perception that AIDS is curable were assessed at baseline, 6, 12 and 24 months. Generalized linear mixture models were used to model risk behavior over time and to identify behavioral correlates. Overall, risky sex decreased from 29% at baseline to 15% at 24-months. Among women, risky sex decreased from 31% at baseline to 10% at 6 months and 15% at 24 months. Among men, risky sex decreased from 30% at baseline to 8% at 6 months and 13% at 24 months. Perceiving HIV/AIDS as curable and lower AIDS-related anxiety were independently associated with risky sex. No evidence of behavioral disinhibition was observed. Concerns regarding behavioral disinhibition should not slow down efforts to increase ART access in Africa.