Last data update: Nov 11, 2024. (Total: 48109 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 526 Records) |
Query Trace: Joseph D[original query] |
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Machine learning to improve the understanding of rabies epidemiology in low surveillance settings
Keshavamurthy R , Boutelle C , Nakazawa Y , Joseph H , Joseph DW , Dilius P , Gibson AD , Wallace RM . Sci Rep 2024 14 (1) 25851 In low and middle-income countries, a large proportion of animal rabies investigations end without a conclusive diagnosis leading to epidemiologic interpretations informed by clinical, rather than laboratory data. We compared Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) with Logistic Regression (LR) for their ability to estimate the probability of rabies in animals investigated as part of an Integrated Bite Case Management program (IBCM). To balance our training data, we used Random Oversampling (ROS) and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique. We developed a risk stratification framework based on predicted rabies probabilities. XGB performed better at predicting rabies cases than LR. Oversampling strategies enhanced the model sensitivity making them the preferred technique to predict rare events like rabies in a biting animal. XGB-ROS classified most of the confirmed rabies cases and only a small proportion of non-cases as either high (confirmed cases = 85.2%, non-cases = 0.01%) or moderate (confirmed cases = 8.4%, non-cases = 4.0%) risk. Model-based risk stratification led to a 3.2-fold increase in epidemiologically useful data compared to a routine surveillance strategy using IBCM case definitions. Our study demonstrates the application of machine learning to strengthen zoonotic disease surveillance under resource-limited settings. |
Emergence and evolution of mosaic penA-60 and penA-237 alleles in a Neisseria gonorrhoeae core genogroup that was historically susceptible to extended spectrum cephalosporins
Thomas Iv JC , Cartee JC , Hebrank K , St Cyr SB , Schlanger K , Raphael BH , Kersh EN , Joseph SJ . Front Microbiol 2024 15 1401303 INTRODUCTION: Neisseria gonorrhoeae (Ng) has successively developed resistance to all previously recommended antimicrobial therapies, with ceftriaxone being the last option for monotherapy of gonorrhea. Global emergence and international spread of the FC428 clone derived mosaic penA-60 allele, associated with highlevel ceftriaxone minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) in non FC428 clone Ng lineages, has become an increasing concern. The penA-60 allele carrying Ng was first identified in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Nevada (2019; GCWGS-102723), with a multi-locus sequence type (MLST)-1901 strain, in a non FC428 clone Ng lineage, which is associated with a historically ceftriaxone susceptible core genogroup. Later in 2022, an allele genetically similar to penA-60, mosaic penA-237, was identified in the UK (H22-722) and France (F92) with high-level ceftriaxone MICs and both belonged to MLST-1901. METHODS: In this study, we assessed phylogenomic relatedness and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) determinant profiles of these three isolates with high-level ceftriaxone MICs among a global collection of 2,104 genomes belonging to the MLST-1901 core genome cluster group 31, which includes strains separated by a locus threshold of 200 or fewer differences (Ng_cgc_200). Recombination events in and around the penA coding region were catalogued and potential sources of inter species recombinant DNA were also inferred. RESULTS: The global population structure of MLST-1901 core genogroup falls into 4 major lineages. Isolates GCWGS-10723, F92, and H22-722 clustered within Lineage 1, which was dominated by non-mosaic penA-5 alleles. These three isolates formed a clade within Lineage 1 that consisted of isolates from North America and southeast Asia. Neisseria subflava and Neisseria sicca were identified as likely progenitors of two independent recombination events that may have led to the generation of mosaic penA-60 and penA-237, within a possible non-mosaic penA-5 background. DISCUSSIONS: Our study suggests that there are multiple evolutionary pathways that could generate concerning mosaic penA alleles via homologous recombination of historically susceptible Ng lineages with Neisseria commensals. Enhanced surveillance of gonococcal strains and Neisseria commensals is crucial for understanding of the evolution of AMR, particularly in less-studied regions (e.g., Asia), where high-level ceftriaxone MICs and multi-drug resistance are more prevalent. |
Pediatricians' practices and desired resources for addressing intimate partner violence
Scott Sarah , Ragavan Maya I , Mickievicz Erin , Handrinos Alexandra , Amodei Joseph , Chang Judy C , Balaban Zaneta , Duplessis Virginia , DeGue Sarah , Villaveces Andres , Miller Elizabeth , Randell Kimberly A . Partner Abuse 2024 15 (4) 550-570 To explore pediatricians' perspectives on supporting intimate partner violence (IPV) survivors, including (a) clinical practices and resource use, (b) ideal resources, and (c) barriers to the use of existing resources, we conducted dyadic and individual virtual interviews with pediatricians recruited through Twitter and the American Academy of Pediatrics Council, section, and chapter listservs. The interviews were approximately 60 minutes in length, audio recorded, and transcribed verbatim. We used a thematic analysis approach and hybrid deductive–inductive coding. Twenty-three pediatricians participated in 14 interviews. We identified four themes. Participants' current practices primarily focused on IPV screening and response to disclosure. They described strategies for IPV resource provision and decision-making involving child protective services. They identified multilevel barriers to addressing IPV, including barriers, such as time, identified in previous studies as well as barriers related to the COVID-19 pandemic, telehealth, the electronic health record, and disclosure-focused approaches. The participants desired provider-facing and caregiver-facing resources to strengthen the capacity to address IPV; some were unaware of currently available resources. They noted the need for continued attention to optimizing systems to enhance their capacity to support IPV survivors. Pediatricians report varying practices to address IPV and identify several surmountable barriers to supporting IPV survivors. Our study suggests that disclosure-driven clinical practices, confidentiality concerns, and lack of resources limit pediatricians' capacity to address IPV. Additional resource development and dissemination efforts are needed to improve the awareness of IPV resources currently available to pediatricians and families. |
Whole-genome sequencing resolves biochemical misidentification of Neisseria species from urogenital specimens
Smith AC , Shrivastava A , Cartee JC , Bélanger M , Sharpe S , Lewis J , Budionno S , Gomez R , Khubbar MK , Pham CD , Gernert KM , Schmerer MW , Raphael BH , Learner ER , Kersh EN , Joseph SJ . J Clin Microbiol 2024 e0070424 Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (Ng) are human pathogens that sometimes occupy the same anatomical niche. Ng, the causative agent of gonorrhea, infects 87 million individuals annually worldwide and is an urgent threat due to increasing drug resistance. Ng is a pathogen of the urogenital tract and may infect the oropharyngeal or rectal site, often asymptomatically. Conversely, Nm is an opportunistic pathogen. While often a commensal in the oropharyngeal tract, it is also the leading cause of bacterial meningitis with 1.2 million cases globally, causing significant morbidity and mortality. Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is likely to occur between Ng and Nm due to their shared anatomical niches and genetic similarity, which poses challenges for accurate detection and treatment. Routine surveillance through the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project and Strengthening the U.S. Response to Resistant Gonorrhea detected six concerning urogenital Neisseria isolates with contradicting species identification in Milwaukee (MIL). While all six isolates were positive for Ng using nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time of flight identified the isolates as Ng, two biochemical tests, Gonochek-II and API NH, classified them as Nm. To address this discrepancy, we performed whole-genome sequencing (WGS) using Illumina MiSeq on all isolates and employed various bioinformatics tools. Species detection analysis using BMScan, which uses WGS data, identified all isolates as Ng. Furthermore, Kraken revealed over 98% of WGS reads mapped to the Ng genome and <1% to Nm. Recombination analysis identified putative HGT in all MIL isolates within the γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (ggt) gene, a key component in the biochemical tests used to differentiate between Nm and Ng. Further analysis identified Nm as the source of HGT event. Specifically, the active Nm ggt gene replaced the Ng pseudogenes, ggt1 and ggt2. Together, this study demonstrates that closely related Neisseria species sharing a niche underwent HGT, which led to the misidentification of species following biochemical testing. Importantly, NAAT accurately detected Ng. The misidentification highlights the importance of using WGS to continually evaluate diagnostic or bacterial identification tests. |
Beyond the 95s: What happens when uniform program targets are applied across a heterogenous HIV epidemic in Eastern and Southern Africa?
Joseph RH , Obeng-Aduasare Y , Achia T , Agedew A , Jonnalagadda S , Katana A , Odoyo EJ , Appolonia A , Raizes E , Dubois A , Blandford J , Nganga L . PLOS Glob Public Health 2024 4 (9) e0003723 The UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets are an important metric for guiding national HIV programs and measuring progress towards ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat by 2030. Nevertheless, as proportional targets, the outcome of reaching the 95-95-95 targets will vary greatly across, and within, countries owing to the geographic diversity of the HIV epidemic. Countries and subnational units with a higher initial prevalence and number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) will remain with a larger number and higher prevalence of virally unsuppressed PLHIV-persons who may experience excess morbidity and mortality and can transmit the virus to others. Reliance on achievement of uniform proportional targets as a measure of program success can potentially mislead resource allocation and progress towards equitable epidemic control. More granular surveillance information on the HIV epidemic is required to effectively calibrate strategies and intensity of HIV programs across geographies and address current and projected health disparities that may undermine efforts to reach and sustain HIV epidemic control even after the 95 targets are achieved. |
Machine learning to attribute the source of Campylobacter infections in the United States: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data
Pascoe B , Futcher G , Pensar J , Bayliss SC , Mourkas E , Calland JK , Hitchings MD , Joseph LA , Lane CG , Greenlee T , Arning N , Wilson DJ , Jolley KA , Corander J , Maiden MCJ , Parker CT , Cooper KK , Rose EB , Hiett K , Bruce BB , Sheppard SK . J Infect 2024 106265 OBJECTIVES: Integrating pathogen genomic surveillance with bioinformatics can enhance public health responses by identifying risk and guiding interventions. This study focusses on the two predominant Campylobacter species, which are commonly found in the gut of birds and mammals and often infect humans via contaminated food. Rising incidence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are a global concern and there is an urgent need to quantify the main routes to human infection. METHODS: During routine US national surveillance (2009-2019), 8,856 Campylobacter genomes from human infections and 16,703 from possible sources were sequenced. Using machine learning and probabilistic models, we target genetic variation associated with host adaptation to attribute the source of human infections and estimate the importance of different disease reservoirs. RESULTS: Poultry was identified as the primary source of human infections, responsible for an estimated 68% of cases, followed by cattle (28%), and only a small contribution from wild birds (3%) and pork sources (1%). There was also evidence of an increase in multidrug resistance, particularly among isolates attributed to chickens. CONCLUSIONS: National surveillance and source attribution can guide policy, and our study suggests that interventions targeting poultry will yield the greatest reductions in campylobacteriosis and spread of AMR in the US. DATA AVAILABILITY: All sequence reads were uploaded and shared on NCBI's Sequence Read Archive (SRA) associated with BioProjects; PRJNA239251 (CDC / PulseNet surveillance), PRJNA287430 (FSIS surveillance), PRJNA292668 & PRJNA292664 (NARMS) and PRJNA258022 (FDA surveillance). Publicly available genomes, including reference genomes and isolates sampled worldwide from wild birds are associated with BioProject accessions: PRJNA176480, PRJNA177352, PRJNA342755, PRJNA345429, PRJNA312235, PRJNA415188, PRJNA524300, PRJNA528879, PRJNA529798, PRJNA575343, PRJNA524315 and PRJNA689604. Contiguous assemblies of all genome sequences compared are available at Mendeley data (assembled C. coli genomes doi: 10.17632/gxswjvxyh3.1; assembled C. jejuni genomes doi: 10.17632/6ngsz3dtbd.1) and individual project and accession numbers can be found in Supplementary tables S1 and S2, which also includes pubMLST identifiers for assembled genomes. Figshare (10.6084/m9.figshare.20279928). Interactive phylogenies are hosted on microreact separately for C. jejuni (https://microreact.org/project/pascoe-us-cjejuni) and C. coli (https://microreact.org/project/pascoe-us-ccoli). |
Changes in screening test volume in the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program during the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-2022
Bermudez Y , DeGroff A , Miller J , Kenney K , Lockhart J , Joseph D , Richardson L . Int J Environ Res Public Health 2024 21 (7) INTRODUCTION: The National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP) observed significant declines in screening volume early in the COVID-19 pandemic, January-June 2020, with variation by race/ethnicity and geography. We aimed to determine how screening in the NBCCEDP recovered from these early declines as it is important for monitoring the long-term impact on women served by the program. METHODS: Extending the previous analyses, we compared monthly breast (BC) and cervical cancer (CVC) screening volume in the NBCCEDP during 2020-2022, to five-year, pre-COVID-19 pandemic averages (2015-2019), and calculated percent change. Results were stratified by race/ethnicity and rurality groups. We employed multiple one-way ANOVA tests, which included multiple comparisons, to test for significant differences between groups. RESULTS: By December 2022, NBCCEDP breast and cervical cancer screening volumes had not fully recovered to pre-COVID-19 5-year averages, and recovery in breast cancer screening volume was slower than that of cervical cancer. Both BC and CVC screening among women in metro areas showed the smallest average monthly deficits (-8.8% BC and -4.9% CVC) compared to monthly pre-COVID-19 pandemic 5-year averages, and screening among women in rural areas showed the greatest deficits (-37.3% BC and -26.7% CVC). BC and CVC screening among Hispanic women showed the greatest improvements compared to the pre-COVID-19 averages (8.2% BC and 9.5% CVC), and cervical cancer screening among non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander women showed the greatest deficits (-41.4% CVC). CONCLUSION: For increased intervention efforts, NBCCEDP recipients can focus on populations demonstrating greatest deficits in screening volume. |
Corrigendum: Patterns of within-host spread of Chlamydia trachomatis between vagina, endocervix and rectum revealed by comparative genomic analysis
Joseph SJ , Bommana S , Ziklo N , Kama M , Dean D , Read TD . Front Microbiol 2024 15 1441327 [This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2023.1154664.]. |
Shifting reasons for older men remaining uncircumcised: Findings from a pre- and post-demand creation intervention among men aged 25-39 years in western Kenya
Agot K , Onyango J , Otieno G , Musingila P , Gachau S , Ochillo M , Grund J , Joseph R , Mboya E , Ohaga S , Omondi D , Odoyo-June E . PLOS Glob Public Health 2024 4 (5) e0003188 Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces men's risk of acquiring Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) through vaginal sex. However, VMMC uptake remains lowest among Kenyan men ages 25-39 years among whom the impact on reducing population-level HIV incidence was estimated to be greatest at the start of the study in 2014. We conducted a pre- and post-intervention survey as part of a cluster randomized controlled trial to determine the effect of two interventions (interpersonal communication (IPC) and dedicated service outlets (DSO), delivered individually or together) on improving VMMC uptake among men ages 25-39 years in western Kenya between 2014 and 2016. The study had three intervention arms and a control arm. In arm one, an IPC toolkit was used to address barriers to VMMC. In arm two, men were referred to DSO that were modified to address their preferences. Arm three combined the IPC and DSO. The control arm had standard of care. At baseline, uncircumcised men ranked the top three reasons for remaining uncircumcised. An IPC demand creation toolkit was used to address the identified barriers and men were referred for VMMC at study-designated facilities. At follow-up, those who remained uncircumcised were again asked to rank the top three reasons for not getting circumcised. There was inconsistency in ranking of reported barriers at pre- and post- intervention: 'time/venue not convenient' was ranked third at baseline and seventh at follow-up; 'too busy to go for circumcision' was tenth at baseline but second at follow-up, and concern about 'what I/family will eat' was ranked first at both baseline and follow-up, but the proportion reduced from 62% to 28%. Men ages 25-39 years cited a variety of logistical and psychosocial barriers to receiving VMMC. After exposure to IPC, most of these barriers shifted while some remained the same. Additional innovative interventions to address on-going and shifting barriers may help improve VMMC uptake among older men. |
Engaging with the model aquatic health code at the local level: Tools and resources for users from the National Association of County and City Health Officials
Rainey Rebecca E , Galan Deise I , Laco Joseph P . J Environ Health 2024 86 (9) 38-40 |
Diarrhea in young children from low-income countries leads to large-scale alterations in intestinal microbiota composition.
Pop M , Walker AW , Paulson J , Lindsay B , Antonio M , Hossain MA , Oundo J , Tamboura B , Mai V , Astrovskaya I , Corrada Bravo H , Rance R , Stares M , Levine MM , Panchalingam S , Kotloff K , Ikumapayi UN , Ebruke C , Adeyemi M , Ahmed D , Ahmed F , Alam MT , Amin R , Siddiqui S , Ochieng JB , Ouma E , Juma J , Mailu E , Omore R , Morris JG , Breiman RF , Saha D , Parkhill J , Nataro JP , Stine OC . Genome Biol 2014 15 (6) R76 BACKGROUND: Diarrheal diseases continue to contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality in infants and young children in developing countries. There is an urgent need to better understand the contributions of novel, potentially uncultured, diarrheal pathogens to severe diarrheal disease, as well as distortions in normal gut microbiota composition that might facilitate severe disease. RESULTS: We use high throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing to compare fecal microbiota composition in children under five years of age who have been diagnosed with moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) with the microbiota from diarrhea-free controls. Our study includes 992 children from four low-income countries in West and East Africa, and Southeast Asia. Known pathogens, as well as bacteria currently not considered as important diarrhea-causing pathogens, are positively associated with MSD, and these include Escherichia/Shigella, and Granulicatella species, and Streptococcus mitis/pneumoniae groups. In both cases and controls, there tend to be distinct negative correlations between facultative anaerobic lineages and obligate anaerobic lineages. Overall genus-level microbiota composition exhibit a shift in controls from low to high levels of Prevotella and in MSD cases from high to low levels of Escherichia/Shigella in younger versus older children; however, there was significant variation among many genera by both site and age. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings expand the current understanding of microbiota-associated diarrhea pathogenicity in young children from developing countries. Our findings are necessarily based on correlative analyses and must be further validated through epidemiological and molecular techniques. |
Coordinated evolution among hepatitis C virus genomic sites is coupled to host factors and resistance to interferon.
Lara J , Tavis JE , Donlin MJ , Lee WM , Yuan HJ , Pearlman BL , Vaughan G , Forbi JC , Xia GL , Khudyakov YE . In Silico Biol 2011 11 213-24 Machine-learning methods in the form of Bayesian networks (BN), linear projection (LP) and self-organizing tree (SOT) models were used to explore association among polymorphic sites within the HVR1 and NS5a regions of the HCV genome, host demographic factors (ethnicity, gender and age) and response to the combined interferon (IFN) and ribavirin (RBV) therapy. The BN models predicted therapy outcomes, gender and ethnicity with accuracy of 90%, 90% and 88.9%, respectively. The LP and SOT models strongly confirmed associations of the HVR1 and NS5A structures with response to therapy and demographic host factors identified by BN. The data indicate host specificity of HCV evolution and suggest the application of these models to predict outcomes of IFN/RBV therapy. |
Multiple genetic origins of histidine-rich protein 2 gene deletion in Plasmodium falciparum parasites from Peru.
Akinyi S , Hayden T , Gamboa D , Torres K , Bendezu J , Abdallah JF , Griffing SM , Quezada WM , Arrospide N , De Oliveira AM , Lucas C , Magill AJ , Bacon DJ , Barnwell JW , Udhayakumar V . Sci Rep 2013 3 2797 The majority of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) detect Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2), encoded by the pfhrp2 gene. Recently, P. falciparum isolates from Peru were found to lack pfhrp2 leading to false-negative RDT results. We hypothesized that pfhrp2-deleted parasites in Peru derived from a single genetic event. We evaluated the parasite population structure and pfhrp2 haplotype of samples collected between 1998 and 2005 using seven neutral and seven chromosome 8 microsatellite markers, respectively. Five distinct pfhrp2 haplotypes, corresponding to five neutral microsatellite-based clonal lineages, were detected in 1998-2001; pfhrp2 deletions occurred within four haplotypes. In 2003-2005, outcrossing among the parasite lineages resulted in eight population clusters that inherited the five pfhrp2 haplotypes seen previously and a new haplotype; pfhrp2 deletions occurred within four of these haplotypes. These findings indicate that the genetic origin of pfhrp2 deletion in Peru was not a single event, but likely occurred multiple times. |
Prevalence and risk factors of sexually transmitted infections in the setting of a generalized HIV epidemic-a population-based study, western Kenya
Awuoche HC , Joseph RH , Magut F , Khagayi S , Odongo FS , Otieno M , Appolonia A , Odoyo-June E , Kwaro DO . Int J STD AIDS 2024 9564624241226487 BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) cause adverse health outcomes, including increasing HIV acquisition/transmission risk. We analyzed data from an HIV biomarker and behavioral survey to estimate STI prevalence, and explore associated factors in the setting of a generalized HIV epidemic in Siaya County, western Kenya. METHODS: Data were collected in March-September 2022 through face-to-face interviews using structured questionnaires; records from 9643 sexually active participants aged 13+ years were included in the analysis. We calculated weighted self-reported STI prevalence, by sex, age, and HIV status and explored associated factors using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Median age was 37 years and 59.9% were female; HIV prevalence was 18.0%. Overall STI prevalence was 1.8%; 1.5-fold higher among males vs. females, and 2.6-fold higher among participants living with HIV vs. those without. HIV status and multiple sexual partners were independently associated with STI in both sexes. Mind-altering substance use and being circumcised were associated with STI among males. CONCLUSIONS: This study estimates STI prevalence in the setting of high HIV prevalence. Findings underscore the importance of: effective STI screening in HIV clinics and HIV testing and counseling in STI clinics; screening and counseling on substance use, and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis; and intensive sexual health counseling in male circumcision programmes. |
Toxicological effects of inhaled crude oil vapor
Fedan JS , Thompson JA , Sager TM , Roberts JR , Joseph P , Krajnak K , Kan H , Sriram K , Weatherly LM , Anderson SE . Curr Environ Health Rep 2024 PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The purpose of this review is to assess the toxicological consequences of crude oil vapor (COV) exposure in the workplace through evaluation of the most current epidemiologic and laboratory-based studies in the literature. RECENT FINDINGS: Crude oil is a naturally occuring mixture of hydrocarbon deposits, inorganic and organic chemical compounds. Workers engaged in upstream processes of oil extraction are exposed to a number of risks and hazards, including getting crude oil on their skin or inhaling crude oil vapor. There have been several reports of workers who died as a result of inhalation of high levels of COV released upon opening thief hatches atop oil storage tanks. Although many investigations into the toxicity of specific hydrocarbons following inhalation during downstream oil processing have been conducted, there is a paucity of information on the potential toxicity of COV exposure itself. This review assesses current knowledge of the toxicological consequences of exposures to COV in the workplace. |
Novel strain of multidrug non-susceptible Neisseria gonorrhoeae in the USA
Reimche JL , Pham CD , Joseph SJ , Hutton S , Cartee JC , Ruan Y , Breaux M , Ivanof C , Joshi A , DeMartino M , Kirby JE , Barbee LA , Kersh EN , Roosevelt KA , Hsu KK . Lancet Infect Dis 2024 Unsuccessful treatment of gonorrhoea has not yet occurred in the USA, and cases of gonorrhoea that are non-susceptible to cephalosporins have been rare. In 2019, non-susceptibility to ceftriaxone conferred by the mosaic penA 60.001 allele was found in a Neisseria gonorrhoeae multilocus sequence type (MLST) 1901 isolate from Nevada.1 In this Correspondence, we present two additional US cases of the penA 60.001 allele identified in MLST 8123, an emerging international multidrug non-susceptible N gonorrhoeae lineage. Although these cases responded to ceftriaxone treatment, N gonorrhoeae isolates from the first known patient (case 1) demonstrated in-vitro non-susceptibility to ceftriaxone as well as non-susceptibility or resistance to drugs previously recommended for front-line treatment. | | In August, 2022, N gonorrhoeae grown from urine culture from a patient with urethritis in primary care in Massachusetts displayed non-susceptibility to cephalosporins (the minimum inhibitory concentrations were 1·0 μg/mL for ceftriaxone and >1·0 μg/mL for cefixime by agar dilution; the minimum inhibitory concentration for cefixime was 1·5 μg/mL by gradient strip) and azithromycin and resistance to ciprofloxacin, penicillin, and tetracycline (appendix pp 6–7). Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was done with gradient strips at the state public health laboratory Massachusetts and then confirmed via agar dilution at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The patient (case 1) had already been successfully diagnosed on nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) with gonorrhoea and was given 500 mg ceftriaxone intramuscularly and asked to return to primary care where, 9 days after treatment, he was asymptomatic, had normal results during examination, and tested negative by urine culture and pharyngeal and rectal NAAT recommended by the Massachusetts sexually transmitted diseases programme to document N gonorrhoeae clearance from any site of infection. The patient reported that he had not travelled outside USA in the 60 days before onset of symptoms. He disclosed female sex worker contacts, but insufficient information was provided to trace the contacts. |
Effects of Multi-Month Dispensing on Clinical Outcomes: Retrospective Cohort Analysis Conducted in Kenya
Blanco N , Lavoie MC , Ngeno C , Wangusi R , Jumbe M , Kimonye F , Ndaga A , Ndichu G , Makokha V , Awuor P , Momanyi E , Oyuga R , Nzyoka S , Mutisya I , Joseph R , Miruka F , Musingila P , Stafford KA , Lascko T , Ngunu C , Owino E , Kiplangat A , Abuya K , Koech E . AIDS Behav 2023 Multi-month dispensing (MMD) has been widely adopted by national HIV programs as a key strategy for improving the quality of HIV care and treatment services while meeting the unique needs of diverse client populations. We assessed the clinical outcomes of clients receiving MMD in Kenya by conducting a retrospective cohort study using routine programmatic data in 32 government health facilities in Kenya. We included clients who were eligible for multi-month antiretroviral therapy (ART) dispensing for ≥ 3 months (≥ 3MMD) according to national guidelines. The primary exposure was enrollment into ≥ 3MMD. The outcomes were lost to follow-up (LTFU) and viral rebound. Multilevel modified-Poisson regression models with robust standard errors were used to compare clinical outcomes between clients enrolled in ≥ 3MMD and those receiving ART dispensing for less than 3 months (< 3MMD). A total of 3,501 clients eligible for ≥ 3MMD were included in the analysis, of whom 65% were enrolled in ≥ 3MMD at entry into the cohort. There was no difference in LTFU of ≥ 180 days between the two types of care (aRR 1.1, 95% CI 0.7-1.6), while ≥ 3MMD was protective for viral rebound (aRR 0.1 95% CI 0.0-0.2). As more diverse client-focused service delivery models are being implemented, robust evaluations are essential to guide the implementation, monitor progress, and assess acceptability and effectiveness to deliver optimal people-centered care. |
Concerning rates of laboratory-confirmed antifungal-resistant onychomycosis and tinea pedis: An online survey of podiatrists, United States
Benedict K , Gold JAW , Jones CT , Tushla LA , Lipner SR , Joseph WS , Tower DE , Elewski B , Pappas PG . Health Sci Rep 2023 6 (11) e1694 Onychomycosis (tinea unguium) and tinea pedis are common, frequently concomitant infections of the nails and feet, respectively, and are often caused by dermatophyte fungi (Trichophyton, Microsporum, and Epidermophyton spp.). 1 Antifungal‐resistant tinea is an emerging global public health problem. 2 A recent, large analysis of toenail samples from US patients with suspected onychomycosis found that nearly 4% of Trichophyton spp samples had squalene epoxidase gene mutations, which are associated with terbinafine resistance. 3 Clinicians may be increasingly likely to encounter resistant tinea infections. Therefore, we aimed to assess diagnostic approaches, antifungal resistance testing practices, and treatment practices for treatment‐resistant onychomycosis and tinea pedis. |
The Human Phenotype Ontology in 2024: phenotypes around the world
Gargano MA , Matentzoglu N , Coleman B , Addo-Lartey EB , Anagnostopoulos AV , Anderton J , Avillach P , Bagley AM , Bakštein E , Balhoff JP , Baynam G , Bello SM , Berk M , Bertram H , Bishop S , Blau H , Bodenstein DF , Botas P , Boztug K , Čady J , Callahan TJ , Cameron R , Carbon SJ , Castellanos F , Caufield JH , Chan LE , Chute CG , Cruz-Rojo J , Dahan-Oliel N , Davids JR , de Dieuleveult M , de Souza V , de Vries BBA , de Vries E , DePaulo JR , Derfalvi B , Dhombres F , Diaz-Byrd C , Dingemans AJM , Donadille B , Duyzend M , Elfeky R , Essaid S , Fabrizzi C , Fico G , Firth HV , Freudenberg-Hua Y , Fullerton JM , Gabriel DL , Gilmour K , Giordano J , Goes FS , Moses RG , Green I , Griese M , Groza T , Gu W , Guthrie J , Gyori B , Hamosh A , Hanauer M , Hanušová K , He YO , Hegde H , Helbig I , Holasová K , Hoyt CT , Huang S , Hurwitz E , Jacobsen JOB , Jiang X , Joseph L , Keramatian K , King B , Knoflach K , Koolen DA , Kraus ML , Kroll C , Kusters M , Ladewig MS , Lagorce D , Lai MC , Lapunzina P , Laraway B , Lewis-Smith D , Li X , Lucano C , Majd M , Marazita ML , Martinez-Glez V , McHenry TH , McInnis MG , McMurry JA , Mihulová M , Millett CE , Mitchell PB , Moslerová V , Narutomi K , Nematollahi S , Nevado J , Nierenberg AA , Čajbiková NN , Nurnberger JI Jr , Ogishima S , Olson D , Ortiz A , Pachajoa H , Perez de Nanclares G , Peters A , Putman T , Rapp CK , Rath A , Reese J , Rekerle L , Roberts AM , Roy S , Sanders SJ , Schuetz C , Schulte EC , Schulze TG , Schwarz M , Scott K , Seelow D , Seitz B , Shen Y , Similuk MN , Simon ES , Singh B , Smedley D , Smith CL , Smolinsky JT , Sperry S , Stafford E , Stefancsik R , Steinhaus R , Strawbridge R , Sundaramurthi JC , Talapova P , Tenorio Castano JA , Tesner P , Thomas RH , Thurm A , Turnovec M , van Gijn ME , Vasilevsky NA , Vlčková M , Walden A , Wang K , Wapner R , Ware JS , Wiafe AA , Wiafe SA , Wiggins LD , Williams AE , Wu C , Wyrwoll MJ , Xiong H , Yalin N , Yamamoto Y , Yatham LN , Yocum AK , Young AH , Yüksel Z , Zandi PP , Zankl A , Zarante I , Zvolský M , Toro S , Carmody LC , Harris NL , Munoz-Torres MC , Danis D , Mungall CJ , Köhler S , Haendel MA , Robinson PN . Nucleic Acids Res 2023 52 D1333-D1346 The Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) is a widely used resource that comprehensively organizes and defines the phenotypic features of human disease, enabling computational inference and supporting genomic and phenotypic analyses through semantic similarity and machine learning algorithms. The HPO has widespread applications in clinical diagnostics and translational research, including genomic diagnostics, gene-disease discovery, and cohort analytics. In recent years, groups around the world have developed translations of the HPO from English to other languages, and the HPO browser has been internationalized, allowing users to view HPO term labels and in many cases synonyms and definitions in ten languages in addition to English. Since our last report, a total of 2239 new HPO terms and 49235 new HPO annotations were developed, many in collaboration with external groups in the fields of psychiatry, arthrogryposis, immunology and cardiology. The Medical Action Ontology (MAxO) is a new effort to model treatments and other measures taken for clinical management. Finally, the HPO consortium is contributing to efforts to integrate the HPO and the GA4GH Phenopacket Schema into electronic health records (EHRs) with the goal of more standardized and computable integration of rare disease data in EHRs. |
How real-time case-based malaria surveillance helps Zanzibar get a step closer to malaria elimination: Description of operational platform and resources
Mkali HR , Lalji SM , Al-Mafazy AW , Joseph JJ , Mwaipape OS , Ali AS , Abbas FB , Ali MH , Hassan WS , Reaves EJ , Kitojo C , Serbantez N , Kabula BI , Nyinondi SS , McKay M , Cressman G , Ngondi JM , Reithinger R . Glob Health Sci Pract 2023 11 (5) Testing and treating asymptomatic populations have the potential to reduce the population's parasite reservoir and reduce malaria transmission. Zanzibar's malaria case notification (MCN) platform collects detailed sociodemographic and epidemiological data from all confirmed malaria cases to inform programmatic decision-making. We describe the design and operationalization process of the platform and other malaria surveillance resources that are enabling Zanzibar's progress toward malaria elimination.The MCN platform consists of an interactive short message service (SMS) system for case notification, a software application for Android mobile devices, a visual question set and workflow manager, a back-end database server, and a web browser-based application for data analytics, configuration, and management. Malaria case data were collected from August 2012 to December 2021 and reported via SMS from all public and private health facilities to a central database and then to district malaria surveillance officers' mobile devices. Data included patient names, shehia (administrative area), and date of diagnosis, enabling officers to track patients, ideally within 24 hours of reporting. Patients' household members were tested for malaria using conventional rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Treatment using artemisinin-based combination therapy was provided for persons testing positive.Between 2012 and 2021, a total of 48,899 index malaria cases were confirmed at health facilities, 22,152 (45.3%) within 24 hours of reporting; 41,886 (85.7%) cases were fully investigated and followed up to the household level. A total of 111,811 additional household members were tested with RDTs, of whom 10,602 (9.5%) were malaria positive.The MCN platform reports malaria case data in near real time, enabling prompt follow-up of index cases and prompt testing and treatment of members in index case households. Along with routine testing and treatment and other preventive interventions, the MCN platform is foundational to the programmatic efforts in further reducing malaria and ultimately eliminating autochthonous malaria transmission in Zanzibar. |
Factors associated with enrollment into differentiated service delivery model among adults living with HIV in Kenya
Lavoie MC , Koech E , Blanco N , Wangusi R , Jumbe M , Kimonye F , Ndaga A , Ndichu G , Makokha V , Awuor P , Momanyi E , Oyuga R , Nzyoka S , Mutisya I , Joseph R , Miruka F , Musingila P , Stafford KA , Lascko T , Ngunu C , Owino E , Kiplangat A , Kepha A , Ng'eno C . AIDS 2023 37 (15) 2409-2417 INTRODUCTION: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) such as multi-month dispensing (MMD) aims to provide client-centered HIV services, while reducing the workload within health facilities. We assessed individual and facility factors associated with receiving >3MMD and switching from ≥3MMD back to <3MMD in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of clients eligible for DSD between July 2017 and December 2019. A random sample of clients eligible for DSD was selected from 32 randomly selected facilities located in Nairobi, Kisii, and Migori counties. We used a multilevel Poisson regression model to assess the factors associated with receiving ≥3MMD, and with switching from ≥3MMD back to <3MMD. RESULTS: A total of 3,501 clients eligible for ≥3MMD were included in our analysis: 1,808 (51.6%) were receiving care in Nairobi County and the remaining 1,693 (48.4%) in Kisii and Migori counties. Overall, 65% of clients were enrolled in ≥3MMD at the time of entry into the cohort. In the multivariable model, younger age (20-24; 25-29; 30-34 vs. 50 or more years) and switching ART regimen was significantly associated with a lower likelihood of ≥3MMD uptake. Additionally, factors associated with a higher likelihood of enrollment in ≥3MMD included receiving DTG- vs. EFV-based ART regimen (aRR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05-1.15). CONCLUSION: Client-level characteristics are associated with being on ≥3MMD and the likelihood of switching from ≥3MMD to <3MMD. Monitoring DSD enrollment across different populations is critical to successfully implementing these models continually. |
Retrospective longitudinal analysis of low-level viremia among HIV-1 infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Kenya
Aoko A , Pals S , Ngugi T , Katiku E , Joseph R , Basiye F , Kimanga D , Kimani M , Masamaro K , Ngugi E , Musingila P , Nganga L , Ondondo R , Makory V , Ayugi R , Momanyi L , Mambo B , Bowen N , Okutoyi S , Chun HM . EClinicalMedicine 2023 63 102166 BACKGROUND: HIV low-level viremia (LLV) (51-999 copies/mL) can progress to treatment failure and increase potential for drug resistance. We analyzed retrospective longitudinal data from people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Kenya to understand LLV prevalence and virologic outcomes. METHODS: We calculated rates of virologic suppression (≤50 copies/mL), LLV (51-999 copies/mL), virologic non-suppression (≥1000 copies/mL), and virologic failure (≥2 consecutive virologic non-suppression results) among PLHIV aged 15 years and older who received at least 24 weeks of ART during 2015-2021. We analyzed risk for virologic non-suppression and virologic failure using time-dependent models (each viral load (VL) <1000 copies/mL used to predict the next VL). FINDINGS: Of 793,902 patients with at least one VL, 18.5% had LLV (51-199 cp/mL 11.1%; 200-399 cp/mL 4.0%; and 400-999 cp/mL 3.4%) and 9.2% had virologic non-suppression at initial result. Among all VLs performed, 26.4% were LLV. Among patients with initial LLV, 13.3% and 2.4% progressed to virologic non-suppression and virologic failure, respectively. Compared to virologic suppression (≤50 copies/mL), LLV was associated with increased risk of virologic non-suppression (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 2.43) and virologic failure (aRR 3.86). Risk of virologic failure increased with LLV range (aRR 2.17 with 51-199 copies/mL, aRR 3.98 with 200-399 copies/mL and aRR 7.99 with 400-999 copies/mL). Compared to patients who never received dolutegravir (DTG), patients who initiated DTG had lower risk of virologic non-suppression (aRR 0.60) and virologic failure (aRR 0.51); similarly, patients who transitioned to DTG had lower risk of virologic non-suppression (aRR 0.58) and virologic failure (aRR 0.35) for the same LLV range. INTERPRETATION: Approximately a quarter of patients experienced LLV and had increased risk of virologic non-suppression and failure. Lowering the threshold to define virologic suppression from <1000 to <50 copies/mL to allow for earlier interventions along with universal uptake of DTG may improve individual and program outcomes and progress towards achieving HIV epidemic control. FUNDING: No specific funding was received for the analysis. HIV program support was provided by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). |
Molecular investigation of Treponema pallidum strains associated with ocular syphilis in the United States, 2016-2020
Pillay A , Vilfort K , Debra A , Katz SS , Thurlow CM , Joseph SJ , Lundy S , Ji A , Jaeyoung H , Workowski KA , Barrow RY , Danavall D , Pettus K , Chi KH , Kersh EN , Cao W , Chen CY . Microbiol Spectr 2024 e0058124 Ocular syphilis is a serious complication of Treponema pallidum infection that can occur at any stage of syphilis and affect any eye structure. It remains unknown if certain T. pallidum strains are associated with ocular infections; therefore, we performed genotyping and whole genome sequencing (WGS) to characterize strains from patients with ocular syphilis. Seventy-five ocular or non-ocular specimens from 55 ocular syphilis patients in 14 states within the United States were collected between February 2016 and November 2020. Sufficient T. pallidum DNA was available from nine patients for genotyping and three for WGS. Genotyping was done using the augmented Centers for Disease Control and Prevention typing scheme, and WGS was performed on Illumina platforms. Multilocus sequence typing allelic profiles were predicted from whole genome sequence data. T. pallidum DNA was detected in various specimens from 17 (30.9%) of the 55 patients, and typing was done on samples from 9 patients. Four complete strain types (14d10/g, 14b9/g, 14d9/g, and 14e9/f) and five partial types were identified. WGS was successful on samples from three patients and all three strains belonged to the SS14 clade of T. pallidum. Our data reveal that multiple strain types are associated with ocular manifestations of syphilis. While genotyping and WGS were challenging due to low amounts of T. pallidum DNA in specimens, we successfully performed WGS on cerebrospinal fluid, vitreous fluid, and whole blood.IMPORTANCESyphilis is caused by the spirochete Treponema pallidum. Total syphilis rates have increased significantly over the past two decades in the United States, and the disease remains a public health concern. In addition, ocular syphilis cases has also been on the rise, coinciding with the overall increase in syphilis rates. We conducted a molecular investigation utilizing traditional genotyping and whole genome sequencing over a 5-year period to ascertain if specific T. pallidum strains are associated with ocular syphilis. Genotyping and phylogenetic analysis show that multiple T. pallidum strain types are associated with ocular syphilis in the United States. |
Reimagining the role of health departments and their partners in addressing climate change: Revising the Building Resilience against Climate Effects (BRACE) Framework
Lemon SC , Joseph HA , Williams S , Brown C , Aytur S , Catalano K , Chacker S , Goins KV , Rudolph L , Whitehead S , Zimmerman S , Schramm PJ . Int J Environ Res Public Health 2023 20 (15) Public health departments have important roles to play in addressing the local health impacts of climate change, yet are often not well prepared to do so. The Climate and Health Program (CHP) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) created the Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework in 2012 as a five-step planning framework to support public health departments and their partners to respond to the health impacts of climate change. CHP has initiated a process to revise the framework to address learnings from a decade of experience with BRACE and advances in the science and practice of addressing climate and health. The aim of this manuscript is to describe the methodology for revising the BRACE framework and the expected outputs of this process. Development of the revised framework and associated guidance and tools will be guided by a multi-sector expert panel, and finalization will be informed by usability testing. Planned revisions to BRACE will (1) be consistent with the vision of Public Health 3.0 and position health departments as "chief health strategists" in their communities, who are responsible for facilitating the establishment and maintenance of cross-sector collaborations with community organizations, other partners, and other government agencies to address local climate impacts and prevent further harm to historically underserved communities; (2) place health equity as a central, guiding tenet; (3) incorporate greenhouse gas mitigation strategies, in addition to its previous focus on climate adaptation; and (4) feature a new set of tools to support BRACE implementation among a diverse set of users. The revised BRACE framework and the associated tools will support public health departments and their partners as they strive to prevent and reduce the negative health impacts of climate change for everyone, while focusing on improving health equity. |
The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset (preprint)
Cramer EY , Huang Y , Wang Y , Ray EL , Cornell M , Bracher J , Brennen A , Rivadeneira AJC , Gerding A , House K , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mody V , Mody V , Niemi J , Stark A , Shah A , Wattanchit N , Zorn MW , Reich NG , US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium , Lopez VK , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M . medRxiv 2021 2021.11.04.21265886 Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident hospitalizations, incident cases, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at national, state, and county levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work. Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below: AIpert-pwllnod: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Caltech-CS156: Gary Clinard Innovation Fund; CEID-Walk: University of Georgia; CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook; COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health; Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information & Data Science Pilot Project; Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation; DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699; epiforecasts-ensemble1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) FDANIHASU: supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH/NIDDK; GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowment, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines, CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement; IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096); Imperial-ensemble1: SB acknowledges funding from the Wellcome Trust (219415); Institute of Business Forecasting: IBF; IowaStateLW-STEM: NSF DMS-1916204, Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics; IUPUI CIS: NSF; JHU_CSSE-DECOM: JHU CSSE: National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Real-time Forecasting of COVID-19 risk in the USA. 2021-2022. Award ID: 2108526. National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Development of an interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real-time. 2020. Award ID: 2028604; JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant); JHU_UNC_GAS-StatMechP ol: NIH NIGMS: R01GM140564; JHUAPL-Bucky: US Dept of Health and Human Services; KITmetricslab-select_ensemble: Daniel Wolffram gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER; MIT-Cassandra: MIT Quest for Intelligence; MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01; CA NU38OT000297 from the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE); NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; NotreDame-mobility: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; PSI-DRAFT: NSF RAPID Grant # 2031536; QJHong-Encounter: NSF DMR-2001411 and DMR-1835939; SDSC_ISG-TrendModel: The development of the dashboard was partly funded by the Fondation Privee des Hopitaux Universitaires de Geneve; UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401; UChicagoCHATTOPADHYAY-UnIT: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) #HR00111890043/P00004 (I. Chattopadhyay, University of Chicago); UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626; UCSD_NEU-DeepGLEAM: Google Faculty Award, W31P4Q-21-C-0014; UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS #R35GM119582, NSF #1749854, NIGMS #R35GM119582; UMich-RidgeTfReg: This project is funded by the University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research; UVA-Ensemble: National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141; Wadnwani_AI-BayesOpt: This study is made possible by the generous support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The work described in this article was implemented under the TRACETB Project, managed by WIAI under the terms of Cooperative Agreement Number 72038620CA00006. The contents of this manuscript are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government; WalmartLabsML-LogForecasting: Team acknowledges Walmart to support this study Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesI confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data produced are available online at https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub |
The urgency of resuming disrupted dog rabies vaccination campaigns: a modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis (preprint)
Kunkel A , Jeon S , Joseph HC , Dilius P , Crowdis K , Meltzer MI , Wallace R . medRxiv 2021 2021.04.24.21256032 OBJECTIVE Dog vaccination is a cost-effective approach to preventing human rabies deaths. In Haiti, the 2019 dog vaccination campaign did not include the capital city, and the 2020 campaign was cancelled because of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions and redirection of funds. We estimated the number of human lives that could be saved by resuming dog vaccination in 2021 compared to 2022 and compared the cost-effectiveness of these two scenarios.METHODS We modified a previously published rabies transmission and economic model to estimate trends in dog and human rabies cases in Haiti from 2005-2025. We compared model outputs to surveillance data on human rabies deaths from 2005-2020 and animal rabies cases from 2018-2020. We then estimated the human health and cost implications of restarting dog vaccination programs in either 2021 or 2022.FINDINGS Model predictions and animal surveillance data from Haiti both suggest a 5-to 8-fold increase in animal rabies cases has occurred in the capital city between Fall 2019 and Fall 2020. We estimate that restarting dog vaccination in Haiti in 2021 compared to 2022 could save 285 human lives and prevent 6,541 human rabies exposures over a five-year period and may decrease program costs due to reduced need for human post-exposure prophylaxis.CONCLUSIONS A one-year delay in resuming dog vaccination in Haiti, from 2021 to 2022, could cost hundreds of lives over the next 5 years. Interruptions in dog vaccination campaigns before elimination is achieved can lead to significant human rabies epidemics if not promptly resumed.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementNo external funding.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:N/A modeling paperAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data are available in the manuscript or supplementary materials. |
Mapping SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Epitopes in COVID-19 Patients with a Multi-Coronavirus Protein Microarray (preprint)
Camerini D , Randall AZ , Trappl-Kimmons K , Oberai A , Hung C , Edgar J , Shandling A , Huynh V , Teng AA , Hermanson G , Pablo JV , Stumpf MM , Lester SN , Harcourt J , Tamin A , Rasheed M , Thornburg NJ , Satheshkumar PS , Liang X , Kennedy RB , Yee A , Townsend M , Campo JJ . medRxiv 2021 2021.01.14.21249690 The emergence and rapid worldwide spread of SARS-CoV-2 has accelerated research and development for controlling the pandemic. A multi-coronavirus protein microarray was created containing full-length proteins, overlapping protein fragments of varying lengths and peptide libraries from SARS-CoV-2 and four other human coronaviruses. Sera from confirmed COVID-19 patients as well as unexposed individuals were applied to multi-coronavirus arrays to identify specific antibody reactivity. High level IgG, IgM and IgA reactivity to structural proteins S, M and N, as well as accessory proteins, of SARS-CoV-2 were observed that was specific to COVID-19 patients. Overlapping 100, 50 and 30 amino acid fragments of SARS-CoV-2 proteins identified antigenic regions. Numerous proteins of SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and the endemic human coronaviruses, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-OC43 were also more reactive with IgG, IgM and IgA in COVID-19 patient sera than in unexposed control sera, providing further evidence of immunologic cross-reactivity between these viruses. The multi-coronavirus protein microarray is a useful tool for mapping antibody reactivity in COVID-19 patients.Competing Interest StatementDavid Camerini, Arlo Z. Randall, Amit Oberai, Christopher Hung, Joshua Edgar, Adam Shandling, Vu Huynh, Andy A. Teng, Gary Hermanson, Jozelyn V. Pablo, Xiaowu Liang, Angela Yee and Joseph J. Campo are employees of Antigen Discovery Inc. In addition, Xiaowu Liang and Angela Yee have an equity interest in Antigen Discovery Inc. The other authors declare non competing interests.Funding StatementNo external funding was used in this study.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:This study was approved by the Mayo Clinic Human Subjects Institutional Review Board and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Human Subjects Office.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data are freely available. |
Prevention and Attenuation of COVID-19 by BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 Vaccines (preprint)
Thompson MG , Burgess JL , Naleway AL , Tyner H , Yoon SK , Meece J , Olsho LEW , Caban-Martinez AJ , Fowlkes AL , Lutrick K , Groom HC , Dunnigan K , Odean MJ , Hegmann K , Stefanski E , Edwards LJ , Schaefer-Solle N , Grant L , Ellingson K , Kuntz JL , Zunie T , Thiese MS , Ivacic L , Wesley MG , Mayo Lamberte J , Sun X , Smith ME , Phillips AL , Groover KD , Yoo YM , Gerald J , Brown RT , Herring MK , Joseph G , Beitel S , Morrill TC , Mak J , Rivers P , Poe BP , Lynch B , Zhou Y , Zhang J , Kelleher A , Li Y , Dickerson M , Hanson E , Guenther K , Tong S , Bateman A , Reisdorf E , Barnes J , Azziz-Baumgartner E , Hunt DR , Arvay ML , Kutty P , Fry AM , Gaglani M . medRxiv 2021 2021.06.01.21257987 BACKGROUND Information is limited on messenger RNA (mRNA) BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection or attenuating disease when administered in real-world conditions.METHODS Prospective cohorts of 3,975 healthcare personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing during December 14 2020—April 10 2021. Self-collected mid-turbinate nasal swabs were tested by qualitative and quantitative reverse-transcription–polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR). VE was calculated as 100%×(1−hazard ratio); adjusted VE was calculated using vaccination propensity weights and adjustments for site, occupation, and local virus circulation.RESULTS SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 204 (5.1%) participants; 16 were partially (≥14 days post-dose-1 to 13 days after dose-2) or fully (≥14 days post-dose-2) vaccinated, and 156 were unvaccinated; 32 with indeterminate status (<14 days after dose-1) were excluded. Adjusted mRNA VE of full vaccination was 91% (95% confidence interval [CI]=76%–97%) against symptomatic or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection; VE of partial vaccination was 81% (95% CI=64%-90%). Among partially or fully vaccinated participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection, mean viral RNA load (Log10 copies/mL) was 40% lower (95% CI=16%-57%), the risk of self-reported febrile COVID-19 was 58% lower (Risk Ratio=0.42, 95% CI=0.18-0.98), and 2.3 fewer days (95% CI=0.8-3.7) were spent sick in bed compared to unvaccinated infected participants.CONCLUSIONS Authorized mRNA vaccines were highly effective among working-age adults in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections when administered in real-world conditions and attenuated viral RNA load, febrile symptoms, and illness duration among those with breakthrough infection despite vaccination.Competing Interest StatementAllison L. Naleway reported funding from Pfizer for a meningococcal B vaccine study unrelated to the submitted work. Kurt T. Hegmann serves at the Editor of the American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine evidence-based practice guidelines. Matthew S. These reported grants and personal fees from Reed Group and the American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, outside the submitted work. Other authors have reported no conflicts of interest.Funding StatementFunding provided in whole or in part by federal funds from the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under contract numbers 75D30120R68013 awarded to Marshfield Clinic Research Laboratory, 75D30120C08379 to University of Arizona, and 75D30120C08150 awarded to Abt Associates, Inc.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:This study was reviewed and approved by the University of Arizona IRB as the single IRB for this studyAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesSummary data will be available once all study objectives are met. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Global emergence and dissemination of Neisseria gonorrhoeae ST-9363 isolates with reduced susceptibility to azithromycin (preprint)
Joseph SJ , Thomas Iv JC , Schmerer MW , Cartee J , St Cyr S , Schlanger K , Kersh EN , Raphael BH , Gernert KM . bioRxiv 2021 2021.08.05.455198 Neisseria gonorrhoeae multi-locus sequence type (ST) 9363 genogroup isolates have been associated with reduced azithromycin susceptibility (AZMrs) and show evidence of clonal expansion in the U.S. Here we analyze a global collection of ST-9363 genogroup genomes to shed light on the emergence and dissemination of this strain. The global population structure of ST-9363 genogroup falls into three lineages: Basal, European, and North American; with 32 clades within all lineages. Although, ST-9363 genogroup is inferred to have originated from Asia in the mid-19th century; we estimate the three modern lineages emerged from Europe in the late 1970s to early 1980s. The European lineage appears to have emerged and expanded from around 1986 to 1998, spreading into North America and Oceania in the mid-2000s with multiple introductions, along with multiple secondary reintroductions into Europe. Our results suggest two separate acquisition events of mosaic mtrR and mtrR promoter alleles: first during 2009-2011 and again during the 2012-2013 time, facilitating the clonal expansion of this genogroup with AZMrs in the U.S. By tracking phylodynamic evolutionary trajectories of clades that share distinct demography as well as population-based genomic statistics, we demonstrate how recombination and selective pressures in the mtrCDE efflux operon granted a fitness advantage to establish ST-9363 as a successful gonococcal lineage in the U.S. and elsewhere. Although it is difficult to pinpoint the exact timing and emergence of this young genogroup, it remains critically important to continue monitoring it, as it could acquire additional resistance markers.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest. |
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