Last data update: Oct 07, 2024. (Total: 47845 publications since 2009)
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Query Trace: Hu X[original query] |
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Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations
Mathis SM , Webber AE , León TM , Murray EL , Sun M , White LA , Brooks LC , Green A , Hu AJ , Rosenfeld R , Shemetov D , Tibshirani RJ , McDonald DJ , Kandula S , Pei S , Yaari R , Yamana TK , Shaman J , Agarwal P , Balusu S , Gururajan G , Kamarthi H , Prakash BA , Raman R , Zhao Z , Rodríguez A , Meiyappan A , Omar S , Baccam P , Gurung HL , Suchoski BT , Stage SA , Ajelli M , Kummer AG , Litvinova M , Ventura PC , Wadsworth S , Niemi J , Carcelen E , Hill AL , Loo SL , McKee CD , Sato K , Smith C , Truelove S , Jung SM , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , McAndrew T , Ye W , Bosse N , Hlavacek WS , Lin YT , Mallela A , Gibson GC , Chen Y , Lamm SM , Lee J , Posner RG , Perofsky AC , Viboud C , Clemente L , Lu F , Meyer AG , Santillana M , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Ben-Nun M , Riley P , Turtle J , Hulme-Lowe C , Jessa S , Nagraj VP , Turner SD , Williams D , Basu A , Drake JM , Fox SJ , Suez E , Cojocaru MG , Thommes EW , Cramer EY , Gerding A , Stark A , Ray EL , Reich NG , Shandross L , Wattanachit N , Wang Y , Zorn MW , Aawar MA , Srivastava A , Meyers LA , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis BL , Marathe M , Venkatramanan S , Butler P , Farabow A , Ramakrishnan N , Muralidhar N , Reed C , Biggerstaff M , Borchering RK . Nat Commun 2024 15 (1) 6289 Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2(nd) most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5(th) most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change. |
Estimated impacts of prescribed fires on air quality and premature deaths in Georgia and surrounding areas in the US, 2015-2020
Maji KJ , Li Z , Vaidyanathan A , Hu Y , Stowell JD , Milando C , Wellenius G , Kinney PL , Russell AG , Odman MT . Environ Sci Technol 2024 Smoke from wildfires poses a substantial threat to health in communities near and far. To mitigate the extent and potential damage of wildfires, prescribed burning techniques are commonly employed as land management tools; however, they introduce their own smoke-related risks. This study investigates the impact of prescribed fires on daily average PM(2.5) and maximum daily 8-h averaged O(3) (MDA8-O(3)) concentrations and estimates premature deaths associated with short-term exposure to prescribed fire PM(2.5) and MDA8-O(3) in Georgia and surrounding areas of the Southeastern US from 2015 to 2020. Our findings indicate that over the study domain, prescribed fire contributes to average daily PM(2.5) by 0.94 ± 1.45 μg/m(3) (mean ± standard deviation), accounting for 14.0% of year-round ambient PM(2.5). Higher average daily contributions were predicted during the extensive burning season (January-April): 1.43 ± 1.97 μg/m(3) (20.0% of ambient PM(2.5)). Additionally, prescribed burning is also responsible for an annual average increase of 0.36 ± 0.61 ppb in MDA8-O(3) (approximately 0.8% of ambient MDA8-O(3)) and 1.3% (0.62 ± 0.88 ppb) during the extensive burning season. We estimate that short-term exposure to prescribed fire PM(2.5) and MDA8-O(3) could have caused 2665 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2249-3080) and 233 (95% CI: 148-317) excess deaths, respectively. These results suggest that smoke from prescribed burns increases the mortality. However, refraining from such burns may escalate the risk of wildfires; therefore, the trade-offs between the health impacts of wildfires and prescribed fires, including morbidity, need to be taken into consideration in future studies. |
Detection of a human adenovirus outbreak, including some critical infections, using multipathogen testing at a large university, September 2022-January 2023
Montgomery JP , Marquez JL , Nord J , Stamper AR , Edwards EA , Valentini N , Frank CJ , Washer LL , Ernst RD , Park JI , Price D , Collins J , Smith-jeffcoat sE , Hu f , Knox cL , Khan r , Lu x , Kirking hL , Hsu cH . Open Forum Infect Dis 2024 11 (5) ofae192 BACKGROUND: Human adenoviruses (HAdVs) can cause outbreaks of flu-like illness in university settings. Most infections in healthy young adults are mild; severe illnesses rarely occur. In Fall 2022, an adenovirus outbreak was identified in university students. METHODS: HAdV cases were defined as university students 17-26 years old who presented to the University Health Service or nearby emergency department with flu-like symptoms (eg, fever, cough, headache, myalgia, nausea) and had confirmed adenovirus infections by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Demographic and clinical characteristics were abstracted from electronic medical records; clinical severity was categorized as mild, moderate, severe, or critical. We performed contact investigations among critical cases. A subset of specimens was sequenced to confirm the HAdV type. RESULTS: From 28 September 2022 to 30 January 2023, 90 PCR-confirmed cases were identified (51% female; mean age, 19.6 years). Most cases (88.9%) had mild illness. Seven cases required hospitalization, including 2 critical cases that required intensive care. Contact investigation identified 44 close contacts; 6 (14%) were confirmed HAdV cases and 8 (18%) reported symptoms but never sought care. All typed HAdV-positive specimens (n = 36) were type 4. CONCLUSIONS: While most students with confirmed HAdV had mild illness, 7 otherwise healthy students had severe or critical illness. Between the relatively high number of hospitalizations and proportion of close contacts with symptoms who did not seek care, the true number of HAdV cases was likely higher. Our findings illustrate the need to consider a wide range of pathogens, even when other viruses are known to be circulating. |
Influence of eat, sleep, and console on infants pharmacologically treated for opioid withdrawal: A post hoc subgroup analysis of the ESC-NOW randomized clinical trial
Devlin LA , Hu Z , Merhar SL , Ounpraseuth ST , Simon AE , Lee JY , Das A , Crawford MM , Greenberg RG , Smith PB , Higgins RD , Walsh MC , Rice W , Paul DA , Maxwell JR , Fung CM , Wright T , Ross J , McAllister JM , Crowley M , Shaikh SK , Christ L , Brown J , Riccio J , Wong Ramsey K , Braswell EF , Tucker L , McAlmon K , Dummula K , Weiner J , White JR , Newman S , Snowden JN , Young LW . JAMA Pediatr 2024 IMPORTANCE: The function-based eat, sleep, console (ESC) care approach substantially reduces the proportion of infants who receive pharmacologic treatment for neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome (NOWS). This reduction has led to concerns for increased postnatal opioid exposure in infants who receive pharmacologic treatment. However, the effect of the ESC care approach on hospital outcomes for infants pharmacologically treated for NOWS is currently unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate differences in opioid exposure and total length of hospital stay (LOS) for pharmacologically treated infants managed with the ESC care approach vs usual care with the Finnegan tool. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This post hoc subgroup analysis involved infants pharmacologically treated in ESC-NOW, a stepped-wedge cluster randomized clinical trial conducted at 26 US hospitals. Hospitals maintained pretrial practices for pharmacologic treatment, including opioid type, scheduled opioid dosing, and use of adjuvant medications. Infants were born at 36 weeks' gestation or later, had evidence of antenatal opioid exposure, and received opioid treatment for NOWS between September 2020 and March 2022. Data were analyzed from November 2022 to January 2024. EXPOSURE: Opioid treatment for NOWS and the ESC care approach. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: For each outcome (total opioid exposure, peak opioid dose, time from birth to initiation of first opioid dose, length of opioid treatment, and LOS), we used generalized linear mixed models to adjust for the stepped-wedge design and maternal and infant characteristics. RESULTS: In the ESC-NOW trial, 463 of 1305 infants were pharmacologically treated (143/603 [23.7%] in the ESC care approach group and 320/702 [45.6%] in the usual care group). Mean total opioid exposure was lower in the ESC care approach group with an absolute difference of 4.1 morphine milligram equivalents per kilogram (MME/kg) (95% CI, 1.3-7.0) when compared with usual care (4.8 MME/kg vs 8.9 MME/kg, respectively; P = .001). Mean time from birth to initiation of pharmacologic treatment was 22.4 hours (95% CI, 7.1-37.7) longer with the ESC care approach vs usual care (75.4 vs 53.0 hours, respectively; P = .002). No significant difference in mean peak opioid dose was observed between groups (ESC care approach, 0.147 MME/kg, vs usual care, 0.126 MME/kg). The mean length of treatment was 6.3 days shorter (95% CI, 3.0-9.6) in the ESC care approach group vs usual care group (11.8 vs 18.1 days, respectively; P < .001), and mean LOS was 6.2 days shorter (95% CI, 3.0-9.4) with the ESC care approach than with usual care (16.7 vs 22.9 days, respectively; P < .001). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: When compared with usual care, the ESC care approach was associated with less opioid exposure and shorter LOS for infants pharmacologically treated for NOWS. The ESC care approach was not associated with a higher peak opioid dose, although pharmacologic treatment was typically initiated later. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04057820. |
Mental health care utilization among parents of children with cancer
Hu X , Grosse SD , Han X , Marchak JG , Ji X . JAMA Netw Open 2024 7 (4) e244531 IMPORTANCE: Caring for children diagnosed with cancer may adversely affect the mental health (MH) of parents. OBJECTIVE: To characterize utilization of MH services among parents of children with vs without cancer using nationwide commercial claims data. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: For this cross-sectional study, the Merative MarketScan Commercial Claims Database was used to identify continuously insured families of children treated for cancer (aged ≤21 years at diagnosis) during 2010 to 2018, compared with families who matched eligibility criteria but did not have a child with a cancer history. Parents were assessed from 18 months before to 12 months after their child's cancer diagnosis. Analyses were conducted from February 2022 to September 2023. EXPOSURES: Children's cancer diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Outcomes included parents' MH-related visits during the first year following their child's cancer diagnosis. Logistic regressions compared outcomes between families of children with vs without cancer, adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. RESULTS: This study included 4837 families of children with cancer (4210 mothers and 4016 fathers) and 24 185 families of children without cancer (21 444 mothers and 19 591 fathers) with continuous insurance enrollment. Most household leads were aged 35 to 54 years (3700 [76.5%] in families of children with cancer vs 17 812 [73.6%] in families of children without cancer) and resided in urban areas (4252 [87.9%] vs 21 156 [87.5%]). The probabilities of parents having anxiety-related visits (10.6% vs 7.0%), depression-related visits (8.4% vs 6.1%), and any MH-related visits (18.1% vs 13.3%) were higher in families of children with vs without cancer. Adjusted analyses showed absolute increases of 3.2 percentage points (95% CI, 2.3 to 4.0; 45.7% relative increase), 2.2 percentage points (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.0; 36.1% relative increase), and 4.2 percentage points (95% CI, 3.1 to 5.3; 31.3% relative increase) in the probabilities of 1 or both parents having anxiety-related visits, depression-related visits, and any MH-related visits, respectively, among families of children with vs without cancer. Such differences were greater in magnitude among mothers than fathers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study of privately insured parents, those caring for children with cancer had a higher likelihood of utilizing MH care than other parents. These findings underline the importance of interventions toward targeted counseling and support to better meet MH care needs among parents and caregivers of children with cancer. |
Genomic DNA methylation changes in response to folic acid supplementation in a population-based intervention study among women of reproductive age.
Crider KS , Quinlivan EP , Berry RJ , Hao L , Li Z , Maneval D , Yang TP , Rasmussen SA , Yang Q , Zhu JH , Hu DJ , Bailey LB . PLoS One 2011 6 (12) e28144 Folate is a source of one-carbons necessary for DNA methylation, a critical epigenetic modification necessary for genomic structure and function. The use of supplemental folic acid is widespread however; the potential influence on DNA methylation is unclear. We measured global DNA methylation using DNA extracted from samples from a population-based, double-blind randomized trial of folic acid supplementation (100, 400, 4000 µg per day) taken for 6 months; including a 3 month post-supplementation sample. We observed no changes in global DNA methylation in response to up to 4,000 µg/day for 6 months supplementation in DNA extracted from uncoagulated blood (approximates circulating blood). However, when DNA methylation was determined in coagulated samples from the same individuals at the same time, significant time, dose, and MTHFR genotype-dependent changes were observed. The baseline level of DNA methylation was the same for uncoagulated and coagulated samples; marked differences between sample types were observed only after intervention. In DNA from coagulated blood, DNA methylation decreased (-14%; P<0.001) after 1 month of supplementation and 3 months after supplement withdrawal, methylation decreased an additional 23% (P<0.001) with significant variation among individuals (max+17%; min-94%). Decreases in methylation of ≥25% (vs. <25%) after discontinuation of supplementation were strongly associated with genotype: MTHFR CC vs. TT (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 12.9, 95%CI 6.4, 26.0). The unexpected difference in DNA methylation between DNA extracted from coagulated and uncoagulated samples in response to folic acid supplementation is an important finding for evaluating use of folic acid and investigating the potential effects of folic acid supplementation on coagulation. |
Use of hepatitis B vaccination for adults with diabetes mellitus: recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Sawyer MH , Hoerger TJ , Murphy TV , Schillie SF , Hu D , Spradling PR , Byrd KK , Xing J , Reilly ML , Tohme RA , Moorman A , Smith EA , Baack BN , Jiles RB , Klevens M , Ward JW , Kahn HS , Zhou F . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2011 60 (50) 1709-11 Hepatitis B virus (HBV) causes acute and chronic infection of the liver leading to substantial morbidity and mortality. In the United States, since 1996, a total of 29 outbreaks of HBV infection in one or multiple long-term-care (LTC) facilities, including nursing homes and assisted-living facilities, were reported to CDC; of these, 25 involved adults with diabetes receiving assisted blood glucose monitoring. These outbreaks prompted the Hepatitis Vaccines Work Group of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to evaluate the risk for HBV infection among all adults with diagnosed diabetes. The Work Group reviewed HBV infection-related morbidity and mortality and the effectiveness of implementing infection prevention and control measures. The strength of scientific evidence regarding protection was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology,* and safety, values, and cost-effectiveness were incorporated into a recommendation using the GRADE system. Based on the Work Group findings, on October 25, 2011, ACIP recommended that all previously unvaccinated adults aged 19 through 59 years with diabetes mellitus (type 1 and type 2) be vaccinated against hepatitis B as soon as possible after a diagnosis of diabetes is made (recommendation category A). Data on the risk for hepatitis B among adults aged ≥60 years are less robust. Therefore, ACIP recommended that unvaccinated adults aged ≥60 years with diabetes may be vaccinated at the discretion of the treating clinician after assessing their risk and the likelihood of an adequate immune response to vaccination (recommendation category B). This report summarizes these recommendations and provides the rationale used by ACIP to inform their decision making. |
A census tract-level examination of diagnosed HIV infection and social vulnerability among Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and White adults, 2018: United States
Gant Z , Dailey A , Hu X , Lyons SJ , Okello A , Elenwa F , Johnson AS . J Racial Ethn Health Disparities 2023 10 (6) 2792-2801 BACKGROUND: To reduce health disparities and improve the health of Americans overall, addressing community-level social and structural factors, such as social vulnerability, may help explain the higher rates of HIV diagnoses among and between race/ethnicity groups. METHODS: Data were obtained from CDC's National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS) and the CDC/ATSDR social vulnerability index (SVI). NHSS data for Black, Hispanic/Latino, and White adults with HIV diagnosed in 2018 were linked to SVI data. To measure the relative disparity, rate ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs were calculated to examine the relative difference comparing census tracts with the lowest SVI scores (quartile 1, Q1) to those with the highest SVI scores (quartile 4, Q4) by sex assigned at birth for age group and region of residence. Differences in the numbers of diagnoses across the quartiles were analyzed by sex assigned at birth and transmission category. RESULTS: There were 13,807 Black, 8747 Hispanic/Latino, and 8325 White adults who received a diagnosis of HIV infection in the United States in 2018-with the highest HIV diagnosis rates among adults who lived in census tracts with the highest vulnerability (Q4). For each race/ethnicity and both sexes, the rate of HIV diagnoses increased as social vulnerability increased. The highest disparities in HIV diagnosis rates by SVI were among persons who inject drugs, and the highest within-group RRs were typically observed among older persons and persons residing in the Northeast. CONCLUSION: To reach the goals of several national HIV initiatives, efforts are needed to address the social vulnerability factors that contribute to racial and ethnic disparities in acquiring HIV and receiving care and treatment. |
The associations of income and Black-White racial segregation with HIV outcomes among adults aged 18 years-United States and Puerto Rico, 2019
Gant Z , Dailey A , Hu X , Song W , Beer L , Johnson Lyons S , Denson DJ , Satcher Johnson A . PLoS One 2023 18 (9) e0291304 OBJECTIVE(S): To examine associations between Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICE) measures for economic and racial segregation and HIV outcomes in the United States (U.S.) and Puerto Rico. METHODS: County-level HIV testing data from CDC's National HIV Prevention Program Monitoring and Evaluation and census tract-level HIV diagnoses, linkage to HIV medical care, and viral suppression data from the National HIV Surveillance System were used. Three ICE measures of spatial polarization were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey: ICEincome (income segregation), ICErace (Black-White racial segregation), and ICEincome+race (Black-White racialized economic segregation). Rate ratios (RRs) for HIV diagnoses and prevalence ratios (PRs) for HIV testing, linkage to care within 1 month of diagnosis, and viral suppression within 6 months of diagnosis were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to examine changes across ICE quintiles using the most privileged communities (Quintile 5, Q5) as the reference group. RESULTS: PRs and RRs showed a higher likelihood of testing and adverse HIV outcomes among persons residing in Q1 (least privileged) communities compared with Q5 (most privileged) across ICE measures. For HIV testing percentages and diagnosis rates, across quintiles, PRs and RRs were consistently greatest for ICErace. For linkage to care and viral suppression, PRs were consistently lower for ICEincome+race. CONCLUSIONS: We found that poor HIV outcomes and disparities were associated with income, racial, and economic segregation as measured by ICE. These ICE measures contribute to poor HIV outcomes and disparities by unfairly concentrating certain groups (i.e., Black persons) in highly segregated and deprived communities that experience a lack of access to quality, affordable health care. Expanded efforts are needed to address the social/economic barriers that impede access to HIV care among Black persons. Increased partnerships between government agencies and the private sector are needed to change policies that promote and sustain racial and income segregation. |
The Field Epidemiology Training Program's contribution to essential public health functions in seven National Public Health Institutes
Cui A , Hamdani S , Woldetsadik MA , Clerville JW , Hu A , Abedi AA , Bratton S , Turcios-Ruiz RM . Int J Public Health 2023 68 1606191 Objective: This study explores how Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETP) whose National Public Health Institutes (NPHI) are supported by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have contributed to strengthening essential public health functions. Methods: We conducted 96 semi-structured interviews with public health experts including NPHI staff, non-NPHI government staff, and staff from non-governmental and international organizations in Cambodia, Colombia, Liberia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Zambia. We managed data using MAXQDA and employed direct content analysis to derive themes. Results: Three overarching themes emerged in relation to FETPs' role within the NPHIs' public health functions. These themes included contribution to improving country surveillance systems, role in providing leadership in outbreak responses, and strengthening countries' and the NPHIs' surveillance workforce capacity. Participants also shared challenges around FETPs' implementation and suggestions for improvement. Conclusion: The results demonstrate the value of FETPs in strengthening public health systems through building workforce capacity and improving surveillance systems. By identifying the successes of FETPs in contributing to essential public health functions, our findings might inform current and future FETP implementation and its integration into NPHIs. |
Non-linkage to care and non-viral suppression among Hispanic/Latino persons by birthplace and social vulnerability-United States, 2021
Morales JA , Gant Sumner Z , Hu X , Johnson Lyons S , Satcher Johnson A . J Racial Ethn Health Disparities 2024 BACKGROUND: Assessing individual- and community-level factors may help to explain differences among Hispanic/Latino adults with diagnosed HIV not linked to care and without viral suppression in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed CDC's National HIV Surveillance System data among Hispanic/Latino persons aged ≥ 18 years with HIV diagnosed during 2021 in 47 states and the District of Columbia and linked cases via census tracts to the CDC/ATSDR's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals for non-linkage to care and non-viral suppression were estimated using Poisson regression model. RESULTS: Among 5,056 Hispanic/Latino adults with HIV diagnosed in 2021, 51.5% were born in the United States, 17.3% in Mexico, 9.2% in Central America, 11.1% in South America, 1.8% in Puerto Rico, 6.8% in Cuba, and 2.4% in the Caribbean. Compared with U.S.-born Hispanic/Latino adults, those born in Mexico and South America had a lower prevalence of non-linkage to care. Hispanic/Latino adults born in Mexico, South America, and the Caribbean (excluding Puerto Rico and Cuba) had a lower prevalence of non-viral suppression, compared with those born in the United States. No significant differences were observed among SVI quartiles for either care outcome. CONCLUSION: This study aimed to challenge the narrow perspective on HIV care outcomes by examining the impact of birthplace and social vulnerability among Hispanic/Latino adults. To increase HIV care and prevention among Hispanic/Latino persons, research must evaluate health disparities within the group, and efforts are needed to better understand and tailor interventions within the diverse Hispanic/Latino population. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Testing hypotheses about the microbiome using the linear decomposition model (LDM) (preprint)
Hu YJ , Satten GA . bioRxiv 2020 229831 Motivation Methods for analyzing microbiome data generally fall into one of two groups: tests of the global hypothesis of any microbiome effect, which do not provide any information on the contribution of individual operational taxonomic units (OTUs); and tests for individual OTUs, which do not typically provide a global test of microbiome effect. Without a unified approach, the findings of a global test may be hard to resolve with the findings at the individual OTU level. Further, many tests of individual OTU effects do not preserve the false discovery rate (FDR).Results We introduce the linear decomposition model (LDM), that provides a single analysis path that includes global tests of any effect of the microbiome, tests of the effects of individual OTUs while accounting for multiple testing by controlling the FDR, and a connection to distance-based ordination. The LDM accommodates both continuous and discrete variables (e.g., clinical outcomes, environmental factors) as well as interaction terms to be tested either singly or in combination, allows for adjustment of confounding covariates, and uses permutation-based p-values that can control for correlation. The LDM can also be applied to transformed data, and an “omnibus” test can easily combine results from analyses conducted on different transformation scales. We also provide a new implementation of PERMANOVA based on our approach. For global testing, our simulations indicate the LDM provided correct type I error and can have comparable power to existing distance-based methods. For testing individual OTUs, our simulations indicate the LDM controlled the FDR well. In contrast, DESeq2 often had inflated FDR; MetagenomeSeq generally had the lowest sensitivity. The flexibility of the LDM for a variety of microbiome studies is illustrated by the analysis of data from two microbiome studies. We also show that our implementation of PERMANOVA can outperform existing implementations. |
Using the Index of Concentration at the Extremes to Evaluate Associations of Income and Black-White Racial Segregation with HIV Outcomes Among Adults Aged >=18 Years - United States and Puerto Rico, 2019 (preprint)
Gant Z , Dailey A , Hu X , Song W , Beer L , Lyons SJ , Denson DJ , Johnson AS . medRxiv 2023 28 Objective(s): To examine associations between Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICE) measures for economic and racial segregation and HIV outcomes in the United States (U.S.) and Puerto Rico. Method(s): County-level HIV testing data from CDC's National HIV Prevention Program Monitoring and Evaluation and census tract-level HIV diagnoses, linkage to HIV medical care, and viral suppression data from the National HIV Surveillance System were used. Three ICE measures of spatial polarization were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey: ICEincome (income segregation), ICErace (Black-White racial segregation), and ICEincome+race (Black-White racialized economic segregation). Rate ratios (RRs) for HIV diagnoses and prevalence ratios (PRs) for HIV testing, linkage to care within 1 month of diagnosis, and viral suppression within 6 months of diagnosis were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to examine changes across ICE quintiles using the most privileged communities (Quintile 5, Q5) as the reference group. Result(s): PRs and RRs showed a higher likelihood of testing and adverse HIV outcomes among persons residing in Q1 (least privileged) communities compared with Q5 (most privileged) across ICE measures. For HIV testing percentages and diagnosis rates, PRs and RRs were consistently greatest for ICErace. For linkage to care and viral suppression, PRs were consistently lower for ICEincome+race. Conclusion(s): Income, racial, and economic segregation-as measured by ICE-might contribute to poor HIV outcomes and disparities by unfairly concentrating certain groups (i.e., Black persons) in highly segregated and deprived communities that experience a lack of access to quality, affordable health care. Expanded efforts are needed to address the social/economic barriers that might impede access to HIV care among Black persons. Increased partnerships between government agencies and the private sector are needed to change policies that promote and sustain racial and income segregation. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license. |
Serologic Responses to COVID-19 Vaccination in Children with History of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (MIS-C) (preprint)
Perez MA , Hsiao HM , Chen X , Kunkel A , Baida N , Hussaini L , Lu AT , Kao CM , Laham FR , Hunstad DA , Beltran Y , Hammett TA , Godfred-Cato S , Chahroudi A , Anderson EJ , Belay E , Rostad CA . medRxiv 2022 20 Understanding the serological responses to COVID-19 vaccination in children with history of MIS-C could inform vaccination recommendations. We prospectively enrolled five children hospitalized with MIS-C and measured SARS-CoV-2 binding IgG antibodies to spike protein variants longitudinally pre- and post-Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 primary series COVID-19 vaccination. We found that SARS-CoV-2 variant cross-reactive IgG antibodies waned following acute MIS-C, but were significantly boosted with vaccination and maintained for at least 3 months. We then compared post-vaccination binding, pseudovirus neutralizing, and functional antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) titers to the reference strain (Wuhan-hu-1) and Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) among previously healthy children (n=6) and children with history of MIS-C (n=5) or COVID-19 (n=5). Despite the breadth of binding antibodies elicited by vaccination in all three groups, pseudovirus neutralizing and ADCC titers were reduced to the Omicron variant. Vaccination after MIS-C or COVID-19 (hybrid immunity) conferred advantage in generating pseudovirus neutralizing and functional ADCC antibodies to Omicron. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. |
Employer Requirements and COVID-19 Vaccination and Attitudes among Healthcare Personnel in the U.S.: Findings from National Immunization Survey Adult COVID Module, August - September 2021 (preprint)
Lee JT , Hu SS , Zhou T , Bonner K , Kriss JL , Wilhelm E , Carter RJ , Holmes C , de Perio MA , Lu PJ , Nguyen KH , Brewer NT , Singleton JA . medRxiv 2022 15 Introduction Employer vaccination requirements have been used to increase vaccination uptake among healthcare personnel (HCP). In summer 2021, HCP were the group most likely to have employer requirements for COVID-19 vaccinations as healthcare facilities led the implementation of such requirements. This study examined the association between employer requirements and HCP's COVID-19 vaccination status and attitudes about the vaccine. Methods Participants were a national representative sample of United States (US) adults who completed the National Immunization Survey Adult COVID Module (NIS-ACM) during August-September 2021. Respondents were asked about COVID-19 vaccination and intent, requirements for vaccination, place of work, attitudes surrounding vaccinations, and sociodemographic variables. This analysis focused on HCP respondents. We first calculated the weighted proportion reporting COVID-19 vaccination for HCP by sociodemographic variables. Then we computed unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios for vaccination coverage and key indicators on vaccine attitudes, comparing HCP based on individual self-report of vaccination requirements. Results Of 12,875 HCP respondents, 41.5% reported COVID-19 vaccination employer requirements. Among HCP with vaccination requirements, 90.5% had been vaccinated against COVID-19, as compared to 73.3% of HCP without vaccination requirements-a pattern consistent across sociodemographic groups. Notably, the greatest differences in uptake between HCP with and without employee requirements were seen in sociodemographic subgroups with the lowest vaccination uptake, e.g., HCP aged 18-29 years, HCP with high school or less education, HCP living below poverty, and uninsured HCP. In every sociodemographic subgroup examined, vaccine uptake was more equitable among HCP with vaccination requirements than in HCP without. Finally, HCP with vaccination requirements were also more likely to express confidence in the vaccine's safety (68.3% vs. 60.1%) and importance (89.6% vs 79.6%). Conclusion In a large national US sample, employer requirements were associated with higher and more equitable HCP vaccination uptake across all sociodemographic groups examined. Our findings suggest that employer requirements can contribute to improving COVID-19 vaccination coverage, similar to patterns seen for other vaccines. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license. |
An analysis of prescribed fire activities and emissions in the Southeastern United States from 2013 to 2020
Li Z , Maji KJ , Hu Y , Vaidyanathan A , O’Neill SM , Odman MT , Russell AG . Remote Sens 2023 15 (11) Prescribed burning is a major source of a fine particular matter, especially in the southeastern United States, and quantifying emissions from burning operations accurately is an integral part of ascertaining air quality impacts. For instance, a critical factor in calculating fire emissions is identifying fire activity information (e.g., location, date/time, fire type, and area burned) and prior estimations of prescribed fire activity used for calculating emissions have either used burn permit records or satellite-based remote sensing products. While burn permit records kept by state agencies are a reliable source, they are not always available or readily accessible. Satellite-based remote sensing products are currently used to fill the data gaps, especially in regional studies; however, they cannot differentiate prescribed burns from the other types of fires. In this study, we developed novel algorithms to distinguish prescribed burns from wildfires and agricultural burns in a satellite-derived product, Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN). We matched and compared the burned areas from permit records and FINN at various spatial scales: individual fire level, 4 km grid level, and state level. The methods developed in this study are readily usable for differentiating burn type, matching and comparing the burned area between two datasets at various resolutions, and estimating prescribed burn emissions. The results showed that burned areas from permits and FINN have a weak correlation at the individual fire level, while the correlation is much higher for the 4 km grid and state levels. Since matching at the 4 km grid level showed a relatively higher correlation and chemical transport models typically use grid-based emissions, we used the linear regression relationship between FINN and permit burned areas at the grid level to adjust FINN burned areas. This adjustment resulted in a reduction in FINN-burned areas by 34%. The adjusted burned area was then used as input to the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework to provide long-term, three-dimensional prescribed burning emissions for the southeastern United States. In this study, we also compared emissions from different methods (FINN or BlueSky) and different data sources (adjusted FINN or permits) to evaluate uncertainties of our emission estimation. The comparison results showed the impacts of the burned area, method, and data source on prescribed burning emission estimations. © 2023 by the authors. |
Prediagnostic blood levels of organochlorines and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in three prospective cohorts in China and Singapore
Bassig BA , Shu XO , Sjödin A , Koh WP , Gao YT , Adams-Haduch J , Davis M , Wang R , Xiang YB , Engel LS , Purdue MP , Ji BT , Yang G , Jones RS , Langseth H , Hosgood HD , Grimsrud TK , Seow WJ , Wong JYY , Hu W , Chen D , Zheng W , Yuan JM , Lan Q , Rothman N . Int J Cancer 2020 146 (3) 839-849 Specific organochlorines (OCs) have been associated with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) with varying degrees of evidence. These associations have not been evaluated in Asia, where the high exposure and historical environmental contamination of certain OC pesticides (e.g., dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane [DDT], hexachlorocyclohexane [HCH]) are different from Western populations. We evaluated NHL risk and prediagnostic blood levels of OC pesticides/metabolites and polychlorinated biphenyl congeners in a case-control study of 167 NHL cases and 167 controls nested within three prospective cohorts in Shanghai and Singapore. Conditional logistic regression was used to analyze lipid-adjusted OC levels and NHL risk. Median levels of p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p'-DDE), the primary DDT metabolite, and β-HCH were up to 12 and 65 times higher, respectively, in samples from the Asian cohorts compared to several cohorts in the United States and Norway. An increased risk of NHL was observed among those with higher β-HCH levels both overall (3rd vs. 1st tertile OR = 1.8, 95%CI = 1.0-3.2; p(trend) = 0.049) and after excluding cases diagnosed within 2 years of blood collection (3rd vs. 1st tertile OR = 2.0, 95%CI = 1.1-3.9; p(trend) = 0.03), and the association was highly consistent across the three cohorts. No significant associations were observed for other OCs, including p,p'-DDE. Our findings provide support for an association between β-HCH blood levels and NHL risk. This is a concern because substantial quantities of persistent, toxic residues of HCH are present in the environment worldwide. Although there is some evidence that DDT is associated with NHL, our findings for p,p'-DDE do not support an association. |
Comment on "Urinary Metabolites of Neonicotinoid Insecticides: Levels and Recommendations for Future Biomonitoring Studies in China": Quantification of 5-Hydroxyimidacloprid and Biomonitoring
Käfferlein HU , Koch HM , Bury D , Wrobel SA , Gilsing HD , Ospina M , Baker SE . Environ Sci Technol 2021 55 (3) 2163-2164 We recently read the article of Song et al. on human biomonitoring of urinary metabolites of neonicotinoids with high interest.1 Our own experiments2 on the metabolism of imidacloprid after a single oral dose of 5 mg in a male volunteer do confirm the findings of Song and co-workers that 5-hydroxyimidacloprid (5-OH-IMI) and imidacloprid olefin are relevant metabolites of imidacloprid in humans. Unfortunately, the article, like several others, has a serious shortcoming from an analytical point of view. | | The metabolism of imidacloprid has previously been described in sufficient detail in mammals;3,4 whereas data in humans are scarce and mostly qualitative.5 Available studies indicate that 5-OH-IMI is a major specific metabolite of imidacloprid; however, not just any 5-OH-IMI but one that is hydroxylated at the 1H-imidazol moiety (1, CAS no. 155802–61–2). Therefore, using the correct 5-OH-IMI standard material for chemical analyses for human biomonitoring of imidacloprid is a critical first step. For example, in preparation for our controlled studies in humans, we had to synthesize 1 and a 13C2, 15N isotope labeled analogue because the substances were not commercially available at that time. |
Assessment of neurodevelopment in infants with and without exposure to asymptomatic or mild maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy
Firestein MR , Shuffrey LC , Hu Y , Kyle M , Hussain M , Bianco C , Hott V , Hyman SP , Kyler M , Rodriguez C , Tejeda Romero M , Tzul Lopez H , Alcántara C , Amso D , Austin J , Bain JM , Barbosa J , Battarbee AN , Bruno A , Ettinger S , Factor-Litvak P , Gilboa S , Goldman S , Gyamfi-Bannerman C , Maniatis P , Marsh R , Morrill T , Mourad M , Muhle R , Newes-Adeyi G , Noble KG , O'Reilly KC , Penn AA , Reichle L , Sania A , Semenova V , Silver WG , Smotrich G , Tita AT , Tottenham N , Varner M , Welch MG , Zork N , Garey D , Fifer WP , Stockwell MS , Monk C , Dawood F , Dumitriu D . JAMA Netw Open 2023 6 (4) e237396 IMPORTANCE: Associations between prenatal SARS-CoV-2 exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes have substantial public health relevance. A previous study found no association between prenatal SARS-CoV-2 infection and parent-reported infant neurodevelopmental outcomes, but standardized observational assessments are needed to confirm this finding. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether mild or asymptomatic maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection vs no infection during pregnancy is associated with infant neurodevelopmental differences at ages 5 to 11 months. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study included infants of mothers from a single-site prospective cross-sectional study (COVID-19 Mother Baby Outcomes [COMBO] Initiative) of mother-infant dyads and a multisite prospective cohort study (Epidemiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Pregnancy and Infancy [ESPI]) of pregnant individuals. A subset of ESPI participants was subsequently enrolled in the ESPI COMBO substudy. Participants in the ongoing COMBO study were enrolled beginning on May 26, 2020; participants in the ESPI study were enrolled from May 7 to November 3, 2021; and participants in the ESPI COMBO substudy were enrolled from August 2020 to March 2021. For the current analysis, infant neurodevelopment was assessed between March 2021 and June 2022. A total of 407 infants born to 403 mothers were enrolled (204 from Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York, New York; 167 from the University of Utah in Salt Lake City; and 36 from the University of Alabama in Birmingham). Mothers of unexposed infants were approached for participation based on similar infant gestational age at birth, date of birth, sex, and mode of delivery to exposed infants. EXPOSURES: Maternal symptomatic or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Infant neurodevelopment was assessed using the Developmental Assessment of Young Children, second edition (DAYC-2), adapted for telehealth assessment. The primary outcome was age-adjusted standard scores on 5 DAYC-2 subdomains: cognitive, gross motor, fine motor, expressive language, and receptive language. RESULTS: Among 403 mothers, the mean (SD) maternal age at delivery was 32.1 (5.4) years; most mothers were of White race (240 [59.6%]) and non-Hispanic ethnicity (253 [62.8%]). Among 407 infants, 367 (90.2%) were born full term and 212 (52.1%) were male. Overall, 258 infants (63.4%) had no documented prenatal exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infection, 112 (27.5%) had confirmed prenatal exposure, and 37 (9.1%) had exposure before pregnancy or at an indeterminate time. In adjusted models, maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy was not associated with differences in cognitive (β = 0.31; 95% CI, -2.97 to 3.58), gross motor (β = 0.82; 95% CI, -1.34 to 2.99), fine motor (β = 0.36; 95% CI, -0.74 to 1.47), expressive language (β = -1.00; 95% CI, -4.02 to 2.02), or receptive language (β = 0.45; 95% CI, -2.15 to 3.04) DAYC-2 subdomain scores. Trimester of exposure and maternal symptom status were not associated with DAYC-2 subdomain scores. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, results of a novel telehealth-adapted observational neurodevelopmental assessment extended a previous finding of no association between prenatal exposure to maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection and infant neurodevelopment. Given the widespread and continued high prevalence of COVID-19, these data offer information that may be helpful for pregnant individuals who experience asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infections. |
A multiple imputation-based sensitivity analysis approachfor regression analysis with an missing notatrandom covariate
Hsu CH , He Y , Hu C , Zhou W . Stat Med 2023 42 (14) 2275-2292 Missing covariate problems are common in biomedical and electrical medical record data studies while evaluating the relationship between a biomarker and certain clinical outcome, when biomarker data are not collected for all subjects. However, missingness mechanism is unverifiable based on observed data. If there is a suspicion of missing not at random (MNAR), researchers often perform sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of various missingness mechanisms. Under the selection modeling framework, we propose a sensitivity analysis approach with a standardized sensitivity parameter using a nonparametric multiple imputation strategy. The proposed approach requires fitting two working models to derive two predictive scores: one for predicting missing covariate values and the other for predicting missingness probabilities. For each missing covariate observation, the two predictive scores along with the pre-specified sensitivity parameter are used to define an imputing set. The proposed approach is expected to be robust against mis-specifications of the selection model and the sensitivity parameter since the selection model and the sensitivity parameter are not directly used to impute missing covariate values. A simulation study is conducted to study the performance of the proposed approach when MNAR is induced by Heckman's selection model. Simulation results show the proposed approach can produce plausible regression coefficient estimates. The proposed sensitivity analysis approach is also applied to evaluate the impact of MNAR on the relationship between post-operative outcomes and incomplete pre-operative Hemoglobin A1c level for patients who underwent carotid intervetion for advanced atherosclerotic disease. |
Serologic responses to COVID-19 vaccination in children with history of multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C)
Perez MA , Hsiao HM , Chen X , Kunkel A , Baida N , Hussaini L , Lu AT , Kao CM , Laham FR , Hunstad DA , Beltran Y , Hammett TA , Godfred-Cato S , Chahroudi A , Anderson EJ , Belay E , Rostad CA . Vaccine 2023 41 (17) 2743-2748 Understanding the serological responses to COVID-19 vaccination in children with history of MIS-C could inform vaccination recommendations. We prospectively enrolled seven children hospitalized with MIS-C and measured SARS-CoV-2 binding IgG antibodies to spike protein variants longitudinally pre- and post-Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 primary series COVID-19 vaccination. We found that SARS-CoV-2 variant cross-reactive IgG antibodies variably waned following acute MIS-C, but were significantly boosted with vaccination and maintained for up to 3 months. We then compared post-vaccination binding, pseudovirus neutralizing, and functional antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) titers to the reference strain (Wuhan-hu-1) and Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) among previously healthy children (n = 16) and children with history of MIS-C (n = 7) or COVID-19 (n = 8). Despite the breadth of binding antibodies elicited by vaccination in all three groups, pseudovirus neutralizing and ADCC titers were significantly reduced to the Omicron variant. |
A census tract-level examination of HIV care outcomes and social vulnerability among Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and White Adults in the Southern United States, 2018
Elenwa F , Gant Z , Hu X , Johnson AS . J Community Health 2023 1-18 We examined the association between social vulnerability and HIV diagnoses, linkage to HIV medical care, and viral suppression among adults in the Southern U.S. Data from CDC's National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS) were used to determine census tract-level HIV diagnosis rates and percentages of persons linked to care within one month and with viral suppression within six months of diagnosis among Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and White adults aged ≥ 18 years residing in the Southern U.S. in 2018. Census tract-level social vulnerability data were obtained from the 2018 CDC Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Rate and proportion ratios were used to determine the difference between the lowest quartile of SVI scores (Q1) and the highest quartile (Q4) by age group, transmission category, and region of residence and stratified by sex assigned at birth. Areas with the highest social vulnerability (Q4) had the highest rates of HIV diagnoses (Black: 56.5, Hispanic/Latino: 27.2, and White: 10.3). Those in Q4 also had the lowest percentages of adults linked to care (Black: 76.1%, Hispanic/Latino: 81.2%, and White: 77.8%), and the lowest percentages of adults with viral suppression (Black: 59.8%, Hispanic/Latino: 68.4%, and White: 65.7%). This ecological study found an association between social vulnerability, HIV diagnoses, and poorer care outcomes among Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and White adults. Tailoring interventions and improving access for persons residing in areas with the highest social vulnerability is necessary to reduce HIV transmission and improve health outcomes in the Southern U.S. |
A census tract-level examination of diagnosed HIV infection and social vulnerability themes among Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and White Adults, 2019-USA
Dailey A , Gant Z , Hu X , Lyons SJ , Okello A , Johnson AS . J Racial Ethn Health Disparities 2023 1-24 BACKGROUND: Assessing HIV diagnosis and the social vulnerability index (SVI) by themes (socioeconomic status, household composition and disability, minority status and English proficiency, and housing type and transportation) might help to identify specific social factors contributing to disparities across census tracts with high rates of diagnosed HIV infection in the USA. METHODS: We examined HIV rate ratios in 2019 using data from CDC's National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS) for Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and White persons aged ≥ 18 years. NHSS data were linked to CDC/ATSDR SVI data to compare census tracts with the lowest SVI (Q1) and highest SVI (Q4) scores. Rates and rate ratios were calculated for 4 SVI themes by sex assigned at birth for age group, transmission category, and region of residence. RESULTS: In the socioeconomic theme analysis, we observed wide within-group disparity among White females with diagnosed HIV infection. In the household composition and disability theme, we observed high HIV diagnosis rates among Hispanic/Latino and White males who lived in the least socially vulnerable census tracts. In the minority status and English proficiency theme, we observed a high percentage of Hispanic/Latino adults with diagnosed HIV infection in the most socially vulnerable census tracts. In the housing type and transportation theme, we observed a high percentage of HIV diagnoses attributed to injection drug use in the most socially vulnerable census tracts. CONCLUSION: The development and prioritization of interventions that address specific social factors contributing to disparities in HIV across census tracts with high diagnosis rates are critical to reducing new HIV infections in the USA. |
Molecular evolution and antigenic drift of type 3 iVDPVs excreted from a patient with immunodeficiency in Ningxia, China.
Fan Q , Ma J , Li X , Jorba J , Yuan F , Zhu H , Hu L , Song Y , Wang D , Zhu S , Yan D , Chen H , Xu W , Zhang Y . J Med Virol 2023 95 (1) e28215 A 2.5-year-old pediatric patient with acute flaccid paralysis was diagnosed with primary immunodeficiency (PID) in Ningxia Province, China, in 2011. Twelve consecutive stool specimens were collected from the patient over a period of 10 months (18 February 2011 to 20 November 2011), and 12 immunodeficiency vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) strains (CHN15017-1 to CHN15017-12) were subsequently isolated. Nucleotide sequencing analysis of the plaque-purified iVDPVs revealed 2%-3.5% VP1-region differences from their parental Sabin 3 strain. Full-length genome sequencing showed they were all Sabin 3/Sabin 1 recombinants, sharing a common 2C-region crossover site, and the two key determinants of attenuation (U472C in the 5' untranslated region and T2493C in the VP1 region) had reverted. Temperature-sensitive experiments demonstrated that the first two iVDPV strains partially retained the temperature-sensitive phenotype's nature, while the subsequent ten iVDPV strains distinctly lost it, possibly associated with increased neurovirulence. Nineteen amino-acid substitutions were detected between 12 iVDPVs and the parental Sabin strain, of which only one (K1419R) was found on the subsequent 10 iVDPV isolates, suggesting this site's potential as a temperature-sensitive determination site. A Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain phylogenetic analysis based on the P1 coding region yielded a mean iVDPV evolutionary rate of 1.02 × 10(-2) total substitutions/site/year, and the initial oral-polio-vaccine dose was presumably administered around June 2009. Our findings provide valuable information regarding the genetic structure, high-temperature growth sensitivity, and antigenic properties of iVDPVs following long-term evolution in a single PID patient, thus augmenting the currently limited knowledge regarding the dynamic changes and evolutionary pathway of iVDPV populations with PID during long-term global replication. |
Impact of survey setting on current tobacco product use: National Youth Tobacco Survey, 2021
Park-Lee E , Gentzke AS , Ren C , Cooper M , Sawdey MD , Hu SS , Cullen KA . J Adolesc Health 2022 72 (3) 365-374 PURPOSE: To examine whether survey setting was associated with youth reporting of current (past 30-day) use of any tobacco product, e-cigarettes, cigarettes, and cigars. METHODS: Data from the 2021 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) were used to estimate the prevalence of current use of any tobacco product, e-cigarettes, cigarettes, and cigars by survey setting, sociodemographic characteristics, peer tobacco use, and other tobacco product use. Multivariable regression was used to test the impact of survey setting on current tobacco use. Tobacco access sources among current users were compared by survey setting. RESULTS: Among students who participated in the 2021 NYTS, 50.8% reported taking the survey on school campus and 49.2% at home/other place. The prevalence of current use of any tobacco product, e-cigarettes, cigarettes, and cigars was higher among students completing the survey on school campus than at home/other place. After adjusting for covariates, this association persisted only for current use of any tobacco product (adjusted odds ratio = 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-1.91) and e-cigarettes (adjusted odds ratio = 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.71). Current users reported similar sources of access to tobacco products, regardless of survey setting. DISCUSSION: The likelihood of youth reporting current use of any tobacco product and e-cigarettes differed by survey setting. Such differences could be due to lack of privacy at home, peer influence in school settings, and other unmeasured characteristics. Methodological changes were made due to COVID-19; caution is warranted in comparing results from the 2021 NYTS with those of previous or future NYTS conducted primarily on school campus. |
Estimation of occupational noise-induced hearing loss using kurtosis-adjusted noise exposure levels
Zhang M , Gao X , Murphy WJ , Kardous CA , Sun X , Hu W , Gong W , Li J , Qiu W . Ear Hear 2022 43 (6) 1881-1892 OBJECTIVES: Studies have shown that in addition to energy, kurtosis plays an important role in the assessment of hearing loss caused by complex noise. The objective of this study was to investigate how to use noise recordings and audiometry collected from workers in industrial environments to find an optimal kurtosis-adjusted algorithm to better evaluate hearing loss caused by both continuous noise and complex noise. DESIGN: In this study, the combined effects of energy and kurtosis on noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) were investigated using data collected from 2601 Chinese workers exposed to various industrial noises. The cohort was divided into three subgroups based on three kurtosis (β) levels (K 1 : 3 ≤ β ≤ 10, K 2 : 10 <β ≤ 50, and K 3 : β > 50). Noise-induced permanent threshold shift at test frequencies 3, 4, and 6 kHz (NIPTS 346 ) was used as the indicator of NIHL. Predicted NIPTS 346 was calculated using the ISO 1999 model for each participant, and the actual NIPTS was obtained by correcting for age and sex using non-noise-exposed Chinese workers (n = 1297). A kurtosis-adjusted A-weighted sound pressure level normalized to a nominal 8-hour working day (L Aeq,8h ) was developed based on the kurtosis categorized group data sets using multiple linear regression. Using the NIPTS 346 and the L Aeq.8h metric, a dose-response relationship for three kurtosis groups was constructed, and the combined effect of noise level and kurtosis on NIHL was investigated. RESULTS: An optimal kurtosis-adjusted L Aeq,8h formula with a kurtosis adjustment coefficient of 6.5 was established by using the worker data. The kurtosis-adjusted L Aeq,8h better estimated hearing loss caused by various complex noises. The analysis of the dose-response relationships among the three kurtosis groups showed that the NIPTS of K 2 and K 3 groups was significantly higher than that of K 1 group in the range of 70 dBA ≤ L Aeq,8h < 85 dBA. For 85 dBA ≤ L Aeq,8h ≤ 95 dBA, the NIPTS 346 of the three groups showed an obvious K 3 > K 2 > K 1 . For L Aeq,8h >95 dBA, the NIPTS 346 of the K 2 group tended to be consistent with that of the K 1 group, while the NIPTS 346 of the K 3 group was significantly larger than that of the K 1 and K 2 groups. When L Aeq,8h is below 70 dBA, neither continuous noise nor complex noise produced significant NIPTS 346 . CONCLUSIONS: Because non-Gaussian complex noise is ubiquitous in many industries, the temporal characteristics of noise (i.e., kurtosis) must be taken into account in evaluating occupational NIHL. A kurtosis-adjusted L Aeq,8h with an adjustment coefficient of 6.5 allows a more accurate prediction of high-frequency NIHL. Relying on a single value (i.e., 85 dBA) as a recommended exposure limit does not appear to be sufficient to protect the hearing of workers exposed to complex noise. |
Comparison of the observer, single-frame video and computer vision hand activity levels
Radwin RG , Hu YH , Akkas O , Bao S , Harris-Adamson C , Lin JH , Meyers AR , Rempel D . Ergonomics 2022 1-12 Observer, manual single-frame video, and automated computer vision measures of the Hand Activity Level (HAL) were compared. HAL can be measured three ways: 1) observer rating (HAL(O)), 2) calculated from single-frame multimedia video task analysis for measuring frequency (F) and duty cycle (D) (HAL(F)), or 3) from automated computer vision (HAL(C)). This study analyzed videos collected from three prospective cohort studies to ascertain HAL(O), HAL(F), and HAL(C) for 419 industrial videos. Although the differences for the three methods were relatively small on average (<1), they were statistically significant (p<.001). A difference between the HAL(C) and HAL(F) ratings within 1 point on the HAL scale was the most consistent, where more than two thirds (68%) of all the cases were within that range and had a linear regression through the mean coefficient of 1.03 (R(2) =0.89). The results suggest that the computer vision methodology yields comparable results as single-frame video analysis. | The ACGIH Hand Activity Level (HAL) was obtained for 419 industrial tasks using three methods: observation, calculated using single-frame video analysis and computer vision. The computer vision methodology produced results that were comparable to single-frame video analysis. | eng |
A forty-year review of Rocky Mountain spotted fever cases in California shows clinical and epidemiologic changes
Kjemtrup AM , Padgett K , Paddock CD , Messenger S , Hacker JK , Feiszli T , Melgar M , Metzger ME , Hu R , Kramer VL . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022 16 (9) e0010738 Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a life-threatening tick-borne disease documented in North, Central, and South America. In California, RMSF is rare; nonetheless, recent fatal cases highlight ecological cycles of the two genera of ticks, Dermacentor and Rhipicephalus, known to transmit the disease. These ticks occur in completely different habitats (sylvatic and peridomestic, respectively) resulting in different exposure risks for humans. This study summarizes the demographic, exposure, and clinical aspects associated with the last 40 years of reported RMSF cases to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH). Seventy-eight RMSF cases with onsets from 1980 to 2019 were reviewed. The incidence of RMSF has risen in the last 20 years from 0.04 cases per million to 0.07 cases per million (a two-fold increase in reports), though the percentage of cases that were confirmed dropped significantly from 72% to 25% of all reported cases. Notably, Hispanic/Latino populations saw the greatest rise in incidence. Cases of RMSF in California result from autochthonous and out-of-state exposures. During the last 20 years, more cases reported exposure in Southern California or Mexico than in the previous 20 years. The driver of these epidemiologic changes is likely the establishment and expansion of Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato ticks in Southern California and on-going outbreaks of RMSF in northern Mexico. Analysis of available electronically reported clinical data from 2011 to 2019 showed that 57% of reported cases presented with serious illness requiring hospitalization with a 7% mortality. The difficulty in recognizing RMSF is due to a non-specific clinical presentation; however, querying patients on the potential of tick exposure in both sylvatic and peridomestic environments may facilitate appropriate testing and treatment. |
Employer requirements and COVID-19 vaccination and attitudes among healthcare personnel in the U.S.: Findings from National Immunization Survey Adult COVID Module, August - September 2021.
Lee JT , Sean Hu S , Zhou T , Bonner KE , Kriss JL , Wilhelm E , Carter RJ , Holmes C , de Perio MA , Lu PJ , Nguyen KH , Brewer NT , Singleton JA . Vaccine 2022 40 (51) 7476-7482 INTRODUCTION: Employer vaccination requirements have been used to increase vaccination uptake among healthcare personnel (HCP). In summer 2021, HCP were the group most likely to have employer requirements for COVID-19 vaccinations as healthcare facilities led the implementation of such requirements. This study examined the association between employer requirements and HCP's COVID-19 vaccination status and attitudes about the vaccine. METHODS: Participants were a national representative sample of United States (US) adults who completed the National Immunization Survey Adult COVID Module (NIS-ACM) during August-September 2021. Respondents were asked about COVID-19 vaccination and intent, requirements for vaccination, place of work, attitudes surrounding vaccinations, and sociodemographic variables. This analysis focused on HCP respondents. We first calculated the weighted proportion reporting COVID-19 vaccination for HCP by sociodemographic variables. Then we computed unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios for vaccination coverage and key indicators on vaccine attitudes, comparing HCP based on individual self-report of vaccination requirements. RESULTS: Of 12,875 HCP respondents, 41.5% reported COVID-19 vaccination employer requirements. Among HCP with vaccination requirements, 90.5% had been vaccinated against COVID-19, as compared to 73.3% of HCP without vaccination requirements-a pattern consistent across sociodemographic groups. Notably, the greatest differences in uptake between HCP with and without employee requirements were seen in sociodemographic subgroups with the lowest vaccination uptake, e.g., HCP aged 18-29 years, HCP with high school or less education, HCP living below poverty, and uninsured HCP. In every sociodemographic subgroup examined, vaccine uptake was more equitable among HCP with vaccination requirements than in HCP without. Finally, HCP with vaccination requirements were also more likely to express confidence in the vaccine's safety (68.3% vs. 60.1%) and importance (89.6% vs 79.6%). CONCLUSION: In a large national US sample, employer requirements were associated with higher and more equitable HCP vaccination uptake across all sociodemographic groups examined. Our findings suggest that employer requirements can contribute to improving COVID-19 vaccination coverage, similar to patterns seen for other vaccines. |
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