The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of low blood lead levels (BLLs) on the red blood cell folate concentrations in U.S. children aged 2-17 years. All data were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) over six consecutive cycles from 2007-2008 to 2017-2018. A total of 12,739 children with BLLs lower than 10 µg/dL (geometric mean: 0.66 µg/dL) were included in the dataset. BLLs were categorized into three tertiles (tertile 1: <0.55 µg/dL; tertile 2: 0.55-0.95 µg/dL; and tertile 3: ≥0.95 µg/dL). The multivariate linear regression model analysis indicates a negative relationship between BLLs and red blood cell folate concentrations. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, red blood cell folate concentrations were lower in children in the BLL tertile 2 (β-coefficient = -0.0450; 95% CI: -0.0676, -0.0224) and BLL tertile 3 groups (β-coefficient = -0.0775; 95% CI: -0.1032, -0.0517) compared to children in the BLL tertile 1 group. When stratified by age, gender, and race/Hispanic origin, the subgroup analysis consistently revealed a negative relationship between BLLs and red blood cell folate concentrations, with red blood cell folate concentrations being lower (p < 0.05) in children in the BLL tertile 3 group compared to children in the tertile 1 group. Further investigation is needed to explore the mechanism underlying the potential relationship between BLLs and red blood cell folate concentrations and determine whether folate plays an active role beneficial for preventing the harmful effects of lead on children.

Black women are disproportionately affected by HIV. We analyzed data from two Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's HIV surveillance systems to better understand HIV prevention strategies used by Black women at risk for and with HIV to help inform efforts to end HIV. Among sexually active Black women, we analyzed 2019 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance data on women without HIV (n = 4,033) and 2018-2020 Medical Monitoring Project data on women with HIV (n = 967). We reported percentages of HIV prevention strategies and services used and assessed differences between groups using Rao-Scott chi-square tests. Among Black women without HIV, 39% were aware of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP); of these, 7% discussed PrEP with a healthcare provider, and 1% used PrEP in the past 12 months. Approximately 16% used a condom with their last sex partner; 36% reported that their last sex partner did not have HIV. Among Black women with HIV, 58% had condom-protected sex, 56% reported having sex while having sustained viral suppression, 3% had condomless sex with a partner on PrEP, and 24% had sex with a partner with HIV; 12% engaged in sex without using any HIV prevention strategy. HIV prevention strategies and services differed by selected demographic characteristics and social determinants of health. Although many sexually active Black women reported using HIV prevention strategies, there is room for improvement among those at risk for or with HIV. Tailoring prevention efforts based on individual needs and circumstances is essential for ending the HIV epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Medical record abstraction (MRA) is a commonly used method for data collection in clinical research, but is prone to error, and the influence of quality control (QC) measures is seldom and inconsistently assessed during the course of a study. We employed a novel, standardized MRA-QC framework as part of an ongoing observational study in an effort to control MRA error rates. In order to assess the effectiveness of our framework, we compared our error rates against traditional MRA studies that had not reported using formalized MRA-QC methods. Thus, the objective of this study was to compare the MRA error rates derived from the literature with the error rates found in a study using MRA as the sole method of data collection that employed an MRA-QC framework. METHODS: A comparison of the error rates derived from MRA-centric studies identified as part of a systematic literature review was conducted against those derived from an MRA-centric study that employed an MRA-QC framework to evaluate the effectiveness of the MRA-QC framework. An inverse variance-weighted meta-analytical method with Freeman-Tukey transformation was used to compute pooled effect size for both the MRA studies identified in the literature and the study that implemented the MRA-QC framework. The level of heterogeneity was assessed using the Q-statistic and Higgins and Thompson's I(2) statistic. RESULTS: The overall error rate from the MRA literature was 6.57%. Error rates for the study using our MRA-QC framework were between 1.04% (optimistic, all-field rate) and 2.57% (conservative, populated-field rate), 4.00-5.53% points less than the observed rate from the literature (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Review of the literature indicated that the accuracy associated with MRA varied widely across studies. However, our results demonstrate that, with appropriate training and continuous QC, MRA error rates can be significantly controlled during the course of a clinical research study.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma programs use the indicator trachomatous inflammation--follicular (TF) to monitor indication for and response to treatment for trachoma at the district level. Alternative indicators, including serologic markers, are increasingly being evaluated for trachoma surveillance. We evaluated seroprevalence of IgG antibodies to the Pgp3 antigen in two districts in Maradi, Niger thought to have low TF prevalence. METHODS: Data were collected as part of the baseline assessment of the Azithromycin Reduction to Reach Elimination of Trachoma (ARRET) trial in September 2021. A random sample of 80 communities was selected from Mayahi and Guidan Roumdji districts, both of which had TF prevalence <20% at their most recent trachoma impact survey in 2018. A random sample of 50 children per community was sampled. We collected field grades, conjunctival swabs for processing PCR for ocular Chlamydia trachomatis, and dried blood spots for serologic assessment. RESULTS: Of 3,994 children sampled in 80 communities, 49% were female and median age was 4 years. Overall TF prevalence was 4.6% (95% CI 3.5 to 5.8%) and trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI) prevalence was 0.6% (95% 0.3 to 0.9%). The prevalence of ocular chlamydia was 0.03% (95% CI 0.08%). Seroprevalence for Pgp3 antibodies was 6.3% (95% CI 5.5 to 7.1%) in 1-9-year-olds and 3.7% (95% CI 2.9 to 4.4%) in 1-5-year-olds. TF and Pgp3 seroprevalence were better correlated in 1-5-year-olds (correlation coefficient 0.29) compared to 1-9-year-olds (correlation coefficient 0.09). CONCLUSIONS: In this low trachoma prevalence setting in Niger, seroprevalence of antibodies to Pgp3 were consistent with little ongoing transmission of C. trachomatis.

We report the complete genome sequences of nine double recombinant vaccine-derived novel oral poliovirus type 2 genomes from acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases (n = 3), AFP case contacts (n = 4), and environmental surveillance sampling (n = 2) in Nigeria.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2(nd) most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5(th) most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

Smoke from wildfires poses a substantial threat to health in communities near and far. To mitigate the extent and potential damage of wildfires, prescribed burning techniques are commonly employed as land management tools; however, they introduce their own smoke-related risks. This study investigates the impact of prescribed fires on daily average PM(2.5) and maximum daily 8-h averaged O(3) (MDA8-O(3)) concentrations and estimates premature deaths associated with short-term exposure to prescribed fire PM(2.5) and MDA8-O(3) in Georgia and surrounding areas of the Southeastern US from 2015 to 2020. Our findings indicate that over the study domain, prescribed fire contributes to average daily PM(2.5) by 0.94 ± 1.45 μg/m(3) (mean ± standard deviation), accounting for 14.0% of year-round ambient PM(2.5). Higher average daily contributions were predicted during the extensive burning season (January-April): 1.43 ± 1.97 μg/m(3) (20.0% of ambient PM(2.5)). Additionally, prescribed burning is also responsible for an annual average increase of 0.36 ± 0.61 ppb in MDA8-O(3) (approximately 0.8% of ambient MDA8-O(3)) and 1.3% (0.62 ± 0.88 ppb) during the extensive burning season. We estimate that short-term exposure to prescribed fire PM(2.5) and MDA8-O(3) could have caused 2665 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2249-3080) and 233 (95% CI: 148-317) excess deaths, respectively. These results suggest that smoke from prescribed burns increases the mortality. However, refraining from such burns may escalate the risk of wildfires; therefore, the trade-offs between the health impacts of wildfires and prescribed fires, including morbidity, need to be taken into consideration in future studies.

BACKGROUND: Human adenoviruses (HAdVs) can cause outbreaks of flu-like illness in university settings. Most infections in healthy young adults are mild; severe illnesses rarely occur. In Fall 2022, an adenovirus outbreak was identified in university students. METHODS: HAdV cases were defined as university students 17-26 years old who presented to the University Health Service or nearby emergency department with flu-like symptoms (eg, fever, cough, headache, myalgia, nausea) and had confirmed adenovirus infections by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Demographic and clinical characteristics were abstracted from electronic medical records; clinical severity was categorized as mild, moderate, severe, or critical. We performed contact investigations among critical cases. A subset of specimens was sequenced to confirm the HAdV type. RESULTS: From 28 September 2022 to 30 January 2023, 90 PCR-confirmed cases were identified (51% female; mean age, 19.6 years). Most cases (88.9%) had mild illness. Seven cases required hospitalization, including 2 critical cases that required intensive care. Contact investigation identified 44 close contacts; 6 (14%) were confirmed HAdV cases and 8 (18%) reported symptoms but never sought care. All typed HAdV-positive specimens (n = 36) were type 4. CONCLUSIONS: While most students with confirmed HAdV had mild illness, 7 otherwise healthy students had severe or critical illness. Between the relatively high number of hospitalizations and proportion of close contacts with symptoms who did not seek care, the true number of HAdV cases was likely higher. Our findings illustrate the need to consider a wide range of pathogens, even when other viruses are known to be circulating.

IMPORTANCE: The function-based eat, sleep, console (ESC) care approach substantially reduces the proportion of infants who receive pharmacologic treatment for neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome (NOWS). This reduction has led to concerns for increased postnatal opioid exposure in infants who receive pharmacologic treatment. However, the effect of the ESC care approach on hospital outcomes for infants pharmacologically treated for NOWS is currently unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate differences in opioid exposure and total length of hospital stay (LOS) for pharmacologically treated infants managed with the ESC care approach vs usual care with the Finnegan tool. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This post hoc subgroup analysis involved infants pharmacologically treated in ESC-NOW, a stepped-wedge cluster randomized clinical trial conducted at 26 US hospitals. Hospitals maintained pretrial practices for pharmacologic treatment, including opioid type, scheduled opioid dosing, and use of adjuvant medications. Infants were born at 36 weeks' gestation or later, had evidence of antenatal opioid exposure, and received opioid treatment for NOWS between September 2020 and March 2022. Data were analyzed from November 2022 to January 2024. EXPOSURE: Opioid treatment for NOWS and the ESC care approach. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: For each outcome (total opioid exposure, peak opioid dose, time from birth to initiation of first opioid dose, length of opioid treatment, and LOS), we used generalized linear mixed models to adjust for the stepped-wedge design and maternal and infant characteristics. RESULTS: In the ESC-NOW trial, 463 of 1305 infants were pharmacologically treated (143/603 [23.7%] in the ESC care approach group and 320/702 [45.6%] in the usual care group). Mean total opioid exposure was lower in the ESC care approach group with an absolute difference of 4.1 morphine milligram equivalents per kilogram (MME/kg) (95% CI, 1.3-7.0) when compared with usual care (4.8 MME/kg vs 8.9 MME/kg, respectively; P = .001). Mean time from birth to initiation of pharmacologic treatment was 22.4 hours (95% CI, 7.1-37.7) longer with the ESC care approach vs usual care (75.4 vs 53.0 hours, respectively; P = .002). No significant difference in mean peak opioid dose was observed between groups (ESC care approach, 0.147 MME/kg, vs usual care, 0.126 MME/kg). The mean length of treatment was 6.3 days shorter (95% CI, 3.0-9.6) in the ESC care approach group vs usual care group (11.8 vs 18.1 days, respectively; P < .001), and mean LOS was 6.2 days shorter (95% CI, 3.0-9.4) with the ESC care approach than with usual care (16.7 vs 22.9 days, respectively; P < .001). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: When compared with usual care, the ESC care approach was associated with less opioid exposure and shorter LOS for infants pharmacologically treated for NOWS. The ESC care approach was not associated with a higher peak opioid dose, although pharmacologic treatment was typically initiated later. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04057820.

IMPORTANCE: Caring for children diagnosed with cancer may adversely affect the mental health (MH) of parents. OBJECTIVE: To characterize utilization of MH services among parents of children with vs without cancer using nationwide commercial claims data. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: For this cross-sectional study, the Merative MarketScan Commercial Claims Database was used to identify continuously insured families of children treated for cancer (aged ≤21 years at diagnosis) during 2010 to 2018, compared with families who matched eligibility criteria but did not have a child with a cancer history. Parents were assessed from 18 months before to 12 months after their child's cancer diagnosis. Analyses were conducted from February 2022 to September 2023. EXPOSURES: Children's cancer diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Outcomes included parents' MH-related visits during the first year following their child's cancer diagnosis. Logistic regressions compared outcomes between families of children with vs without cancer, adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. RESULTS: This study included 4837 families of children with cancer (4210 mothers and 4016 fathers) and 24 185 families of children without cancer (21 444 mothers and 19 591 fathers) with continuous insurance enrollment. Most household leads were aged 35 to 54 years (3700 [76.5%] in families of children with cancer vs 17 812 [73.6%] in families of children without cancer) and resided in urban areas (4252 [87.9%] vs 21 156 [87.5%]). The probabilities of parents having anxiety-related visits (10.6% vs 7.0%), depression-related visits (8.4% vs 6.1%), and any MH-related visits (18.1% vs 13.3%) were higher in families of children with vs without cancer. Adjusted analyses showed absolute increases of 3.2 percentage points (95% CI, 2.3 to 4.0; 45.7% relative increase), 2.2 percentage points (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.0; 36.1% relative increase), and 4.2 percentage points (95% CI, 3.1 to 5.3; 31.3% relative increase) in the probabilities of 1 or both parents having anxiety-related visits, depression-related visits, and any MH-related visits, respectively, among families of children with vs without cancer. Such differences were greater in magnitude among mothers than fathers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study of privately insured parents, those caring for children with cancer had a higher likelihood of utilizing MH care than other parents. These findings underline the importance of interventions toward targeted counseling and support to better meet MH care needs among parents and caregivers of children with cancer.

Folate is a source of one-carbons necessary for DNA methylation, a critical epigenetic modification necessary for genomic structure and function. The use of supplemental folic acid is widespread however; the potential influence on DNA methylation is unclear. We measured global DNA methylation using DNA extracted from samples from a population-based, double-blind randomized trial of folic acid supplementation (100, 400, 4000 µg per day) taken for 6 months; including a 3 month post-supplementation sample. We observed no changes in global DNA methylation in response to up to 4,000 µg/day for 6 months supplementation in DNA extracted from uncoagulated blood (approximates circulating blood). However, when DNA methylation was determined in coagulated samples from the same individuals at the same time, significant time, dose, and MTHFR genotype-dependent changes were observed. The baseline level of DNA methylation was the same for uncoagulated and coagulated samples; marked differences between sample types were observed only after intervention. In DNA from coagulated blood, DNA methylation decreased (-14%; P<0.001) after 1 month of supplementation and 3 months after supplement withdrawal, methylation decreased an additional 23% (P<0.001) with significant variation among individuals (max+17%; min-94%). Decreases in methylation of ≥25% (vs. <25%) after discontinuation of supplementation were strongly associated with genotype: MTHFR CC vs. TT (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 12.9, 95%CI 6.4, 26.0). The unexpected difference in DNA methylation between DNA extracted from coagulated and uncoagulated samples in response to folic acid supplementation is an important finding for evaluating use of folic acid and investigating the potential effects of folic acid supplementation on coagulation.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) causes acute and chronic infection of the liver leading to substantial morbidity and mortality. In the United States, since 1996, a total of 29 outbreaks of HBV infection in one or multiple long-term-care (LTC) facilities, including nursing homes and assisted-living facilities, were reported to CDC; of these, 25 involved adults with diabetes receiving assisted blood glucose monitoring. These outbreaks prompted the Hepatitis Vaccines Work Group of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to evaluate the risk for HBV infection among all adults with diagnosed diabetes. The Work Group reviewed HBV infection-related morbidity and mortality and the effectiveness of implementing infection prevention and control measures. The strength of scientific evidence regarding protection was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology,* and safety, values, and cost-effectiveness were incorporated into a recommendation using the GRADE system. Based on the Work Group findings, on October 25, 2011, ACIP recommended that all previously unvaccinated adults aged 19 through 59 years with diabetes mellitus (type 1 and type 2) be vaccinated against hepatitis B as soon as possible after a diagnosis of diabetes is made (recommendation category A). Data on the risk for hepatitis B among adults aged ≥60 years are less robust. Therefore, ACIP recommended that unvaccinated adults aged ≥60 years with diabetes may be vaccinated at the discretion of the treating clinician after assessing their risk and the likelihood of an adequate immune response to vaccination (recommendation category B). This report summarizes these recommendations and provides the rationale used by ACIP to inform their decision making.

BACKGROUND: To reduce health disparities and improve the health of Americans overall, addressing community-level social and structural factors, such as social vulnerability, may help explain the higher rates of HIV diagnoses among and between race/ethnicity groups. METHODS: Data were obtained from CDC's National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS) and the CDC/ATSDR social vulnerability index (SVI). NHSS data for Black, Hispanic/Latino, and White adults with HIV diagnosed in 2018 were linked to SVI data. To measure the relative disparity, rate ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs were calculated to examine the relative difference comparing census tracts with the lowest SVI scores (quartile 1, Q1) to those with the highest SVI scores (quartile 4, Q4) by sex assigned at birth for age group and region of residence. Differences in the numbers of diagnoses across the quartiles were analyzed by sex assigned at birth and transmission category. RESULTS: There were 13,807 Black, 8747 Hispanic/Latino, and 8325 White adults who received a diagnosis of HIV infection in the United States in 2018-with the highest HIV diagnosis rates among adults who lived in census tracts with the highest vulnerability (Q4). For each race/ethnicity and both sexes, the rate of HIV diagnoses increased as social vulnerability increased. The highest disparities in HIV diagnosis rates by SVI were among persons who inject drugs, and the highest within-group RRs were typically observed among older persons and persons residing in the Northeast. CONCLUSION: To reach the goals of several national HIV initiatives, efforts are needed to address the social vulnerability factors that contribute to racial and ethnic disparities in acquiring HIV and receiving care and treatment.

OBJECTIVE(S): To examine associations between Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICE) measures for economic and racial segregation and HIV outcomes in the United States (U.S.) and Puerto Rico. METHODS: County-level HIV testing data from CDC's National HIV Prevention Program Monitoring and Evaluation and census tract-level HIV diagnoses, linkage to HIV medical care, and viral suppression data from the National HIV Surveillance System were used. Three ICE measures of spatial polarization were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey: ICEincome (income segregation), ICErace (Black-White racial segregation), and ICEincome+race (Black-White racialized economic segregation). Rate ratios (RRs) for HIV diagnoses and prevalence ratios (PRs) for HIV testing, linkage to care within 1 month of diagnosis, and viral suppression within 6 months of diagnosis were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to examine changes across ICE quintiles using the most privileged communities (Quintile 5, Q5) as the reference group. RESULTS: PRs and RRs showed a higher likelihood of testing and adverse HIV outcomes among persons residing in Q1 (least privileged) communities compared with Q5 (most privileged) across ICE measures. For HIV testing percentages and diagnosis rates, across quintiles, PRs and RRs were consistently greatest for ICErace. For linkage to care and viral suppression, PRs were consistently lower for ICEincome+race. CONCLUSIONS: We found that poor HIV outcomes and disparities were associated with income, racial, and economic segregation as measured by ICE. These ICE measures contribute to poor HIV outcomes and disparities by unfairly concentrating certain groups (i.e., Black persons) in highly segregated and deprived communities that experience a lack of access to quality, affordable health care. Expanded efforts are needed to address the social/economic barriers that impede access to HIV care among Black persons. Increased partnerships between government agencies and the private sector are needed to change policies that promote and sustain racial and income segregation.

Objective: This study explores how Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETP) whose National Public Health Institutes (NPHI) are supported by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have contributed to strengthening essential public health functions. Methods: We conducted 96 semi-structured interviews with public health experts including NPHI staff, non-NPHI government staff, and staff from non-governmental and international organizations in Cambodia, Colombia, Liberia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Zambia. We managed data using MAXQDA and employed direct content analysis to derive themes. Results: Three overarching themes emerged in relation to FETPs' role within the NPHIs' public health functions. These themes included contribution to improving country surveillance systems, role in providing leadership in outbreak responses, and strengthening countries' and the NPHIs' surveillance workforce capacity. Participants also shared challenges around FETPs' implementation and suggestions for improvement. Conclusion: The results demonstrate the value of FETPs in strengthening public health systems through building workforce capacity and improving surveillance systems. By identifying the successes of FETPs in contributing to essential public health functions, our findings might inform current and future FETP implementation and its integration into NPHIs.

BACKGROUND: Assessing individual- and community-level factors may help to explain differences among Hispanic/Latino adults with diagnosed HIV not linked to care and without viral suppression in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed CDC's National HIV Surveillance System data among Hispanic/Latino persons aged ≥ 18 years with HIV diagnosed during 2021 in 47 states and the District of Columbia and linked cases via census tracts to the CDC/ATSDR's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals for non-linkage to care and non-viral suppression were estimated using Poisson regression model. RESULTS: Among 5,056 Hispanic/Latino adults with HIV diagnosed in 2021, 51.5% were born in the United States, 17.3% in Mexico, 9.2% in Central America, 11.1% in South America, 1.8% in Puerto Rico, 6.8% in Cuba, and 2.4% in the Caribbean. Compared with U.S.-born Hispanic/Latino adults, those born in Mexico and South America had a lower prevalence of non-linkage to care. Hispanic/Latino adults born in Mexico, South America, and the Caribbean (excluding Puerto Rico and Cuba) had a lower prevalence of non-viral suppression, compared with those born in the United States. No significant differences were observed among SVI quartiles for either care outcome. CONCLUSION: This study aimed to challenge the narrow perspective on HIV care outcomes by examining the impact of birthplace and social vulnerability among Hispanic/Latino adults. To increase HIV care and prevention among Hispanic/Latino persons, research must evaluate health disparities within the group, and efforts are needed to better understand and tailor interventions within the diverse Hispanic/Latino population.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information&amp; Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. &amp; Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia &amp; Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, &amp; Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44

Motivation Methods for analyzing microbiome data generally fall into one of two groups: tests of the global hypothesis of any microbiome effect, which do not provide any information on the contribution of individual operational taxonomic units (OTUs); and tests for individual OTUs, which do not typically provide a global test of microbiome effect. Without a unified approach, the findings of a global test may be hard to resolve with the findings at the individual OTU level. Further, many tests of individual OTU effects do not preserve the false discovery rate (FDR).Results We introduce the linear decomposition model (LDM), that provides a single analysis path that includes global tests of any effect of the microbiome, tests of the effects of individual OTUs while accounting for multiple testing by controlling the FDR, and a connection to distance-based ordination. The LDM accommodates both continuous and discrete variables (e.g., clinical outcomes, environmental factors) as well as interaction terms to be tested either singly or in combination, allows for adjustment of confounding covariates, and uses permutation-based p-values that can control for correlation. The LDM can also be applied to transformed data, and an “omnibus” test can easily combine results from analyses conducted on different transformation scales. We also provide a new implementation of PERMANOVA based on our approach. For global testing, our simulations indicate the LDM provided correct type I error and can have comparable power to existing distance-based methods. For testing individual OTUs, our simulations indicate the LDM controlled the FDR well. In contrast, DESeq2 often had inflated FDR; MetagenomeSeq generally had the lowest sensitivity. The flexibility of the LDM for a variety of microbiome studies is illustrated by the analysis of data from two microbiome studies. We also show that our implementation of PERMANOVA can outperform existing implementations.

Objective(s): To examine associations between Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICE) measures for economic and racial segregation and HIV outcomes in the United States (U.S.) and Puerto Rico. Method(s): County-level HIV testing data from CDC's National HIV Prevention Program Monitoring and Evaluation and census tract-level HIV diagnoses, linkage to HIV medical care, and viral suppression data from the National HIV Surveillance System were used. Three ICE measures of spatial polarization were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey: ICEincome (income segregation), ICErace (Black-White racial segregation), and ICEincome+race (Black-White racialized economic segregation). Rate ratios (RRs) for HIV diagnoses and prevalence ratios (PRs) for HIV testing, linkage to care within 1 month of diagnosis, and viral suppression within 6 months of diagnosis were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to examine changes across ICE quintiles using the most privileged communities (Quintile 5, Q5) as the reference group. Result(s): PRs and RRs showed a higher likelihood of testing and adverse HIV outcomes among persons residing in Q1 (least privileged) communities compared with Q5 (most privileged) across ICE measures. For HIV testing percentages and diagnosis rates, PRs and RRs were consistently greatest for ICErace. For linkage to care and viral suppression, PRs were consistently lower for ICEincome+race. Conclusion(s): Income, racial, and economic segregation-as measured by ICE-might contribute to poor HIV outcomes and disparities by unfairly concentrating certain groups (i.e., Black persons) in highly segregated and deprived communities that experience a lack of access to quality, affordable health care. Expanded efforts are needed to address the social/economic barriers that might impede access to HIV care among Black persons. Increased partnerships between government agencies and the private sector are needed to change policies that promote and sustain racial and income segregation. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

Understanding the serological responses to COVID-19 vaccination in children with history of MIS-C could inform vaccination recommendations. We prospectively enrolled five children hospitalized with MIS-C and measured SARS-CoV-2 binding IgG antibodies to spike protein variants longitudinally pre- and post-Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 primary series COVID-19 vaccination. We found that SARS-CoV-2 variant cross-reactive IgG antibodies waned following acute MIS-C, but were significantly boosted with vaccination and maintained for at least 3 months. We then compared post-vaccination binding, pseudovirus neutralizing, and functional antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) titers to the reference strain (Wuhan-hu-1) and Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) among previously healthy children (n=6) and children with history of MIS-C (n=5) or COVID-19 (n=5). Despite the breadth of binding antibodies elicited by vaccination in all three groups, pseudovirus neutralizing and ADCC titers were reduced to the Omicron variant. Vaccination after MIS-C or COVID-19 (hybrid immunity) conferred advantage in generating pseudovirus neutralizing and functional ADCC antibodies to Omicron. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Introduction Employer vaccination requirements have been used to increase vaccination uptake among healthcare personnel (HCP). In summer 2021, HCP were the group most likely to have employer requirements for COVID-19 vaccinations as healthcare facilities led the implementation of such requirements. This study examined the association between employer requirements and HCP's COVID-19 vaccination status and attitudes about the vaccine. Methods Participants were a national representative sample of United States (US) adults who completed the National Immunization Survey Adult COVID Module (NIS-ACM) during August-September 2021. Respondents were asked about COVID-19 vaccination and intent, requirements for vaccination, place of work, attitudes surrounding vaccinations, and sociodemographic variables. This analysis focused on HCP respondents. We first calculated the weighted proportion reporting COVID-19 vaccination for HCP by sociodemographic variables. Then we computed unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios for vaccination coverage and key indicators on vaccine attitudes, comparing HCP based on individual self-report of vaccination requirements. Results Of 12,875 HCP respondents, 41.5% reported COVID-19 vaccination employer requirements. Among HCP with vaccination requirements, 90.5% had been vaccinated against COVID-19, as compared to 73.3% of HCP without vaccination requirements-a pattern consistent across sociodemographic groups. Notably, the greatest differences in uptake between HCP with and without employee requirements were seen in sociodemographic subgroups with the lowest vaccination uptake, e.g., HCP aged 18-29 years, HCP with high school or less education, HCP living below poverty, and uninsured HCP. In every sociodemographic subgroup examined, vaccine uptake was more equitable among HCP with vaccination requirements than in HCP without. Finally, HCP with vaccination requirements were also more likely to express confidence in the vaccine's safety (68.3% vs. 60.1%) and importance (89.6% vs 79.6%). Conclusion In a large national US sample, employer requirements were associated with higher and more equitable HCP vaccination uptake across all sociodemographic groups examined. Our findings suggest that employer requirements can contribute to improving COVID-19 vaccination coverage, similar to patterns seen for other vaccines. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

Prescribed burning is a major source of a fine particular matter, especially in the southeastern United States, and quantifying emissions from burning operations accurately is an integral part of ascertaining air quality impacts. For instance, a critical factor in calculating fire emissions is identifying fire activity information (e.g., location, date/time, fire type, and area burned) and prior estimations of prescribed fire activity used for calculating emissions have either used burn permit records or satellite-based remote sensing products. While burn permit records kept by state agencies are a reliable source, they are not always available or readily accessible. Satellite-based remote sensing products are currently used to fill the data gaps, especially in regional studies; however, they cannot differentiate prescribed burns from the other types of fires. In this study, we developed novel algorithms to distinguish prescribed burns from wildfires and agricultural burns in a satellite-derived product, Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN). We matched and compared the burned areas from permit records and FINN at various spatial scales: individual fire level, 4 km grid level, and state level. The methods developed in this study are readily usable for differentiating burn type, matching and comparing the burned area between two datasets at various resolutions, and estimating prescribed burn emissions. The results showed that burned areas from permits and FINN have a weak correlation at the individual fire level, while the correlation is much higher for the 4 km grid and state levels. Since matching at the 4 km grid level showed a relatively higher correlation and chemical transport models typically use grid-based emissions, we used the linear regression relationship between FINN and permit burned areas at the grid level to adjust FINN burned areas. This adjustment resulted in a reduction in FINN-burned areas by 34%. The adjusted burned area was then used as input to the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework to provide long-term, three-dimensional prescribed burning emissions for the southeastern United States. In this study, we also compared emissions from different methods (FINN or BlueSky) and different data sources (adjusted FINN or permits) to evaluate uncertainties of our emission estimation. The comparison results showed the impacts of the burned area, method, and data source on prescribed burning emission estimations. © 2023 by the authors.

Specific organochlorines (OCs) have been associated with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) with varying degrees of evidence. These associations have not been evaluated in Asia, where the high exposure and historical environmental contamination of certain OC pesticides (e.g., dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane [DDT], hexachlorocyclohexane [HCH]) are different from Western populations. We evaluated NHL risk and prediagnostic blood levels of OC pesticides/metabolites and polychlorinated biphenyl congeners in a case-control study of 167 NHL cases and 167 controls nested within three prospective cohorts in Shanghai and Singapore. Conditional logistic regression was used to analyze lipid-adjusted OC levels and NHL risk. Median levels of p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p'-DDE), the primary DDT metabolite, and β-HCH were up to 12 and 65 times higher, respectively, in samples from the Asian cohorts compared to several cohorts in the United States and Norway. An increased risk of NHL was observed among those with higher β-HCH levels both overall (3rd vs. 1st tertile OR = 1.8, 95%CI = 1.0-3.2; p(trend) = 0.049) and after excluding cases diagnosed within 2 years of blood collection (3rd vs. 1st tertile OR = 2.0, 95%CI = 1.1-3.9; p(trend) = 0.03), and the association was highly consistent across the three cohorts. No significant associations were observed for other OCs, including p,p'-DDE. Our findings provide support for an association between β-HCH blood levels and NHL risk. This is a concern because substantial quantities of persistent, toxic residues of HCH are present in the environment worldwide. Although there is some evidence that DDT is associated with NHL, our findings for p,p'-DDE do not support an association.

We recently read the article of Song et al. on human biomonitoring of urinary metabolites of neonicotinoids with high interest.1 Our own experiments2 on the metabolism of imidacloprid after a single oral dose of 5 mg in a male volunteer do confirm the findings of Song and co-workers that 5-hydroxyimidacloprid (5-OH-IMI) and imidacloprid olefin are relevant metabolites of imidacloprid in humans. Unfortunately, the article, like several others, has a serious shortcoming from an analytical point of view. | | The metabolism of imidacloprid has previously been described in sufficient detail in mammals;3,4 whereas data in humans are scarce and mostly qualitative.5 Available studies indicate that 5-OH-IMI is a major specific metabolite of imidacloprid; however, not just any 5-OH-IMI but one that is hydroxylated at the 1H-imidazol moiety (1, CAS no. 155802–61–2). Therefore, using the correct 5-OH-IMI standard material for chemical analyses for human biomonitoring of imidacloprid is a critical first step. For example, in preparation for our controlled studies in humans, we had to synthesize 1 and a 13C2, 15N isotope labeled analogue because the substances were not commercially available at that time.

IMPORTANCE: Associations between prenatal SARS-CoV-2 exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes have substantial public health relevance. A previous study found no association between prenatal SARS-CoV-2 infection and parent-reported infant neurodevelopmental outcomes, but standardized observational assessments are needed to confirm this finding. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether mild or asymptomatic maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection vs no infection during pregnancy is associated with infant neurodevelopmental differences at ages 5 to 11 months. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study included infants of mothers from a single-site prospective cross-sectional study (COVID-19 Mother Baby Outcomes [COMBO] Initiative) of mother-infant dyads and a multisite prospective cohort study (Epidemiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Pregnancy and Infancy [ESPI]) of pregnant individuals. A subset of ESPI participants was subsequently enrolled in the ESPI COMBO substudy. Participants in the ongoing COMBO study were enrolled beginning on May 26, 2020; participants in the ESPI study were enrolled from May 7 to November 3, 2021; and participants in the ESPI COMBO substudy were enrolled from August 2020 to March 2021. For the current analysis, infant neurodevelopment was assessed between March 2021 and June 2022. A total of 407 infants born to 403 mothers were enrolled (204 from Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York, New York; 167 from the University of Utah in Salt Lake City; and 36 from the University of Alabama in Birmingham). Mothers of unexposed infants were approached for participation based on similar infant gestational age at birth, date of birth, sex, and mode of delivery to exposed infants. EXPOSURES: Maternal symptomatic or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Infant neurodevelopment was assessed using the Developmental Assessment of Young Children, second edition (DAYC-2), adapted for telehealth assessment. The primary outcome was age-adjusted standard scores on 5 DAYC-2 subdomains: cognitive, gross motor, fine motor, expressive language, and receptive language. RESULTS: Among 403 mothers, the mean (SD) maternal age at delivery was 32.1 (5.4) years; most mothers were of White race (240 [59.6%]) and non-Hispanic ethnicity (253 [62.8%]). Among 407 infants, 367 (90.2%) were born full term and 212 (52.1%) were male. Overall, 258 infants (63.4%) had no documented prenatal exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infection, 112 (27.5%) had confirmed prenatal exposure, and 37 (9.1%) had exposure before pregnancy or at an indeterminate time. In adjusted models, maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy was not associated with differences in cognitive (β = 0.31; 95% CI, -2.97 to 3.58), gross motor (β = 0.82; 95% CI, -1.34 to 2.99), fine motor (β = 0.36; 95% CI, -0.74 to 1.47), expressive language (β = -1.00; 95% CI, -4.02 to 2.02), or receptive language (β = 0.45; 95% CI, -2.15 to 3.04) DAYC-2 subdomain scores. Trimester of exposure and maternal symptom status were not associated with DAYC-2 subdomain scores. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, results of a novel telehealth-adapted observational neurodevelopmental assessment extended a previous finding of no association between prenatal exposure to maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection and infant neurodevelopment. Given the widespread and continued high prevalence of COVID-19, these data offer information that may be helpful for pregnant individuals who experience asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Missing covariate problems are common in biomedical and electrical medical record data studies while evaluating the relationship between a biomarker and certain clinical outcome, when biomarker data are not collected for all subjects. However, missingness mechanism is unverifiable based on observed data. If there is a suspicion of missing not at random (MNAR), researchers often perform sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of various missingness mechanisms. Under the selection modeling framework, we propose a sensitivity analysis approach with a standardized sensitivity parameter using a nonparametric multiple imputation strategy. The proposed approach requires fitting two working models to derive two predictive scores: one for predicting missing covariate values and the other for predicting missingness probabilities. For each missing covariate observation, the two predictive scores along with the pre-specified sensitivity parameter are used to define an imputing set. The proposed approach is expected to be robust against mis-specifications of the selection model and the sensitivity parameter since the selection model and the sensitivity parameter are not directly used to impute missing covariate values. A simulation study is conducted to study the performance of the proposed approach when MNAR is induced by Heckman's selection model. Simulation results show the proposed approach can produce plausible regression coefficient estimates. The proposed sensitivity analysis approach is also applied to evaluate the impact of MNAR on the relationship between post-operative outcomes and incomplete pre-operative Hemoglobin A1c level for patients who underwent carotid intervetion for advanced atherosclerotic disease.

Understanding the serological responses to COVID-19 vaccination in children with history of MIS-C could inform vaccination recommendations. We prospectively enrolled seven children hospitalized with MIS-C and measured SARS-CoV-2 binding IgG antibodies to spike protein variants longitudinally pre- and post-Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 primary series COVID-19 vaccination. We found that SARS-CoV-2 variant cross-reactive IgG antibodies variably waned following acute MIS-C, but were significantly boosted with vaccination and maintained for up to 3 months. We then compared post-vaccination binding, pseudovirus neutralizing, and functional antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) titers to the reference strain (Wuhan-hu-1) and Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) among previously healthy children (n = 16) and children with history of MIS-C (n = 7) or COVID-19 (n = 8). Despite the breadth of binding antibodies elicited by vaccination in all three groups, pseudovirus neutralizing and ADCC titers were significantly reduced to the Omicron variant.

We examined the association between social vulnerability and HIV diagnoses, linkage to HIV medical care, and viral suppression among adults in the Southern U.S. Data from CDC's National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS) were used to determine census tract-level HIV diagnosis rates and percentages of persons linked to care within one month and with viral suppression within six months of diagnosis among Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and White adults aged ≥ 18 years residing in the Southern U.S. in 2018. Census tract-level social vulnerability data were obtained from the 2018 CDC Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Rate and proportion ratios were used to determine the difference between the lowest quartile of SVI scores (Q1) and the highest quartile (Q4) by age group, transmission category, and region of residence and stratified by sex assigned at birth. Areas with the highest social vulnerability (Q4) had the highest rates of HIV diagnoses (Black: 56.5, Hispanic/Latino: 27.2, and White: 10.3). Those in Q4 also had the lowest percentages of adults linked to care (Black: 76.1%, Hispanic/Latino: 81.2%, and White: 77.8%), and the lowest percentages of adults with viral suppression (Black: 59.8%, Hispanic/Latino: 68.4%, and White: 65.7%). This ecological study found an association between social vulnerability, HIV diagnoses, and poorer care outcomes among Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and White adults. Tailoring interventions and improving access for persons residing in areas with the highest social vulnerability is necessary to reduce HIV transmission and improve health outcomes in the Southern U.S.

BACKGROUND: Assessing HIV diagnosis and the social vulnerability index (SVI) by themes (socioeconomic status, household composition and disability, minority status and English proficiency, and housing type and transportation) might help to identify specific social factors contributing to disparities across census tracts with high rates of diagnosed HIV infection in the USA. METHODS: We examined HIV rate ratios in 2019 using data from CDC's National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS) for Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and White persons aged ≥ 18 years. NHSS data were linked to CDC/ATSDR SVI data to compare census tracts with the lowest SVI (Q1) and highest SVI (Q4) scores. Rates and rate ratios were calculated for 4 SVI themes by sex assigned at birth for age group, transmission category, and region of residence. RESULTS: In the socioeconomic theme analysis, we observed wide within-group disparity among White females with diagnosed HIV infection. In the household composition and disability theme, we observed high HIV diagnosis rates among Hispanic/Latino and White males who lived in the least socially vulnerable census tracts. In the minority status and English proficiency theme, we observed a high percentage of Hispanic/Latino adults with diagnosed HIV infection in the most socially vulnerable census tracts. In the housing type and transportation theme, we observed a high percentage of HIV diagnoses attributed to injection drug use in the most socially vulnerable census tracts. CONCLUSION: The development and prioritization of interventions that address specific social factors contributing to disparities in HIV across census tracts with high diagnosis rates are critical to reducing new HIV infections in the USA.

A 2.5-year-old pediatric patient with acute flaccid paralysis was diagnosed with primary immunodeficiency (PID) in Ningxia Province, China, in 2011. Twelve consecutive stool specimens were collected from the patient over a period of 10 months (18 February 2011 to 20 November 2011), and 12 immunodeficiency vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) strains (CHN15017-1 to CHN15017-12) were subsequently isolated. Nucleotide sequencing analysis of the plaque-purified iVDPVs revealed 2%-3.5% VP1-region differences from their parental Sabin 3 strain. Full-length genome sequencing showed they were all Sabin 3/Sabin 1 recombinants, sharing a common 2C-region crossover site, and the two key determinants of attenuation (U472C in the 5' untranslated region and T2493C in the VP1 region) had reverted. Temperature-sensitive experiments demonstrated that the first two iVDPV strains partially retained the temperature-sensitive phenotype's nature, while the subsequent ten iVDPV strains distinctly lost it, possibly associated with increased neurovirulence. Nineteen amino-acid substitutions were detected between 12 iVDPVs and the parental Sabin strain, of which only one (K1419R) was found on the subsequent 10 iVDPV isolates, suggesting this site's potential as a temperature-sensitive determination site. A Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain phylogenetic analysis based on the P1 coding region yielded a mean iVDPV evolutionary rate of 1.02 × 10(-2) total substitutions/site/year, and the initial oral-polio-vaccine dose was presumably administered around June 2009. Our findings provide valuable information regarding the genetic structure, high-temperature growth sensitivity, and antigenic properties of iVDPVs following long-term evolution in a single PID patient, thus augmenting the currently limited knowledge regarding the dynamic changes and evolutionary pathway of iVDPV populations with PID during long-term global replication.