BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular assays are increasingly used for detection of enteric viruses. METHODS: We compared the clinical severity using modified Vesikari score (mVS) of enteric viruses detected by conventional assays (enzyme immunoassays [EIA] for rotavirus and adenovirus 40/41 and conventional polymerase chain reaction for astrovirus, sapovirus, and norovirus) and a quantitative molecular assay (TaqMan Array Card [TAC]) among children aged 0-59 months in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study. For rotavirus and adenovirus 40/41, we compared severity between EIA-positive and TAC-positive cases assigned etiologies using different cycle threshold (CT) cutoffs. RESULTS: Using conventional assays, the median (interquartile range) mVS was 10 (8, 11) for rotavirus, 9 (7, 11) for adenovirus 40/41, 8 (6, 10) for astrovirus, sapovirus, and norovirus GII, and 7 (6, 9) for norovirus GI. Compared to rotavirus EIA-positive cases, the median mVS was 2 and 3 points lower for EIA-negative/TAC-positive cases with CT<32.6 and 32.6≤CT<35, respectively (p-value<.0001). Adenovirus 40/41 EIA-positive and EIA-negative/TAC-positive cases were similar, regardless of CT cutoff. CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative molecular assays compared to conventional assays, such as EIA, may influence severity of identified cases, especially for rotavirus. Cutoffs to assign etiology for quantitative assays should be considered in the design and interpretation of enteric virus studies.

BACKGROUND: Non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) is a common cause of gastroenteritis in young children, with limited data on NTS serovars and antimicrobial resistance in Africa. METHODS: We determined the prevalence of Salmonella spp. and frequency of antimicrobial resistance among serovars identified in stools of 0-59 month-old children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and controls enrolled in the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study in The Gambia, Mali, and Kenya in 2015-2018, and compared with data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS; 2007-2010) and the GEMS-1A study (2011). Salmonella spp. was detected by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and culture-based methods. Identification of serovars was determined by microbiological methods. RESULTS: By qPCR, the prevalence of Salmonella spp. among MSD cases was 4.0%, 1.6%, and 1.9% and among controls was 4.6%, 2.4%, and 1.6% in The Gambia, Mali, and Kenya, respectively, during VIDA. We observed year-to-year variation in serovar distribution and variation between sites. In Kenya, Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium decreased (78.1% to 23.1%; P < .001) among cases and controls from 2007 to 2018, whereas serogroup O:8 increased (8.7% to 38.5%; P = .04). In The Gambia, serogroup O:7 decreased from 2007 to 2018 (36.3% to 0%; P = .001) but S. enterica serovar Enteritidis increased during VIDA (2015 to 2018; 5.9% to 50%; P = .002). Only 4 Salmonella spp. were isolated in Mali during all 3 studies. Multidrug resistance was 33.9% in Kenya and 0.8% in The Gambia across all 3 studies. Ceftriaxone resistance was only observed in Kenya (2.3%); NTS isolates were susceptible to ciprofloxacin at all sites. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding variability in serovar distribution will be important for the future deployment of vaccines against salmonellosis in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Despite antibiotic prescription being recommended for dysentery and suspected cholera only, diarrhea still triggers unwarranted antibiotic prescription. We evaluated antibiotic-prescribing practices and their predictors among children aged 2-59 months in the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study performed in The Gambia, Mali, and Kenya. METHODS: VIDA was a prospective case-control study (May 2015-July 2018) among children presenting for care with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD). We defined inappropriate antibiotic use as prescription or use of antibiotics when not indicated by World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. We used logistic regression to assess factors associated with antibiotic prescription for MSD cases who had no indication for an antibiotic, at each site. RESULTS: VIDA enrolled 4840 cases. Among 1757 (36.3%) who had no apparent indication for antibiotic treatment, 1358 (77.3%) were prescribed antibiotics. In The Gambia, children who presented with a cough (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.05; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.21-3.48) were more likely to be prescribed an antibiotic. In Mali, those who presented with dry mouth (aOR: 3.16; 95% CI: 1.02-9.73) were more likely to be prescribed antibiotics. In Kenya, those who presented with a cough (aOR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.01-4.70), decreased skin turgor (aOR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.02-4.16), and were very thirsty (aOR: 4.15; 95% CI: 1.78-9.68) were more likely to be prescribed antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic prescription was associated with signs and symptoms inconsistent with WHO guidelines, suggesting the need for antibiotic stewardship and clinician awareness of diarrhea case-management recommendations in these settings.

BACKGROUND: Reducing diarrhea-related morbidity and mortality is a global priority, particularly in low-resource settings. We assessed adherence to diarrhea case management indicators in the Global Enteric Multisite Study (GEMS) and Vaccine Impact of Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) study. METHODS: GEMS (2007-2010) and VIDA (2015-2018) were age-stratified case-control studies of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children aged <5 years. In this case-only analysis, we included children enrolled in The Gambia, Kenya, and Mali. A case with no dehydration received adherent care at home if they were offered more than usual fluids and at least the same as usual to eat. Children with diarrhea and some dehydration are to receive oral rehydration salts (ORS) in the facility. The recommendation for severe dehydration is to receive ORS and intravenous fluids in the facility. Adherent care in the facility included a zinc prescription independent of dehydration severity. RESULTS: For home-based management of children with MSD and no signs of dehydration, 16.6% in GEMS and 15.6% in VIDA were adherent to guidelines. Adherence to guidelines in the facility was likewise low during GEMS (some dehydration, 18.5%; severe dehydration, 5.5%). The adherence to facility-based rehydration and zinc guidelines improved during VIDA to 37.9% of those with some dehydration and 8.0% of children with severe dehydration. CONCLUSIONS: At research sites in The Gambia, Kenya, and Mali, suboptimal adherence to diarrhea case management guidelines for children aged <5 years was observed. Opportunities exist for improvement in case management for children with diarrhea in low-resource settings.

BACKGROUND: As part of the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study, we examined the prevalence, clinical presentation, and seasonality of Cryptosporidium in children to understand its relative burden after the introduction of rotavirus vaccine. METHODS: VIDA was a 3-year, age-stratified, matched case-control study of medically attended acute moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months residing in censused populations at sites in Kenya, Mali, and The Gambia. Clinical and epidemiologic data were collected at enrollment, and a stool sample was tested for enteropathogens by quantitative PCR. An algorithm was created based on the organism's cycle threshold (Ct) and association with MSD to identify the subset of Cryptosporidium PCR-positive (Ct <35) cases most likely to be attributed to MSD. Clinical outcomes were assessed at 2-3 months after enrollment. RESULTS: One thousand one hundred six (22.9%) cases of MSD and 873 controls (18.1%) were PCR positive for Cryptosporidium; 465 cases (42.0%) were considered attributable to Cryptosporidium, mostly among children 6-23 months. Cryptosporidium infections peaked in The Gambia and Mali during the rainy season, while in Kenya they did not have clear seasonality. Compared with cases with watery MSD who had a negative PCR for Cryptosporidium, cases with watery MSD attributed to Cryptosporidium were less frequently dehydrated but appeared more severely ill using a modified Vesikari scale (38.1% vs 27.0%; P < 0.001), likely due to higher rates of hospitalization and intravenous fluid administration, higher prevalence of being wasted or very thin very thin (23.4% vs 14.7%; P < 0.001), and having severe acute malnutrition (midupper arm circumference <115 mm, 7.7% vs 2.5%; P < 0.001). On follow-up, Cryptosporidium-attributed cases had more prolonged and persistent episodes (43.2% vs 32.7%; P <0 .001) and linear growth faltering (change in height-for-age z score between enrollment and follow-up: -0.29 vs -0.17; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The burden of Cryptosporidium remains high among young children in sub-Saharan Africa. Its propensity to cause illness and further impact children longer term by compromising nutritional status early in life calls for special attention to enable appropriate management of clinical and nutritional consequences.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the burden of Shigella spp from children aged 0-59 months with medically attended moderate-to-severe diarrhea and matched controls at sites in Mali, The Gambia, and Kenya participating in the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) study from 2015 to 2018. METHODS: Shigella spp were identified using coprocultures and serotyping in addition to quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Episode-specific attributable fractions (AFe) for Shigella were calculated using Shigella DNA quantity; cases with AFe ≥0.5 were considered to have shigellosis. RESULTS: The prevalence of Shigella was determined to be 359 of 4840 (7.4%) cases and 83 of 6213 (1.3%) controls by culture, and 1641 of 4836 (33.9%) cases and 1084 of 4846 (22.4%) controls by qPCR (cycle threshold <35); shigellosis was higher in The Gambia (30.8%) than in Mali (9.3%) and Kenya (18.7%). Bloody diarrhea attributed to Shigella was more common in 24- to 59-month-old children (50.1%) than 0- to 11-month-old infants (39.5%). The Shigella flexneri serogroup predominated among cases (67.6% of isolates), followed by Shigella sonnei (18.2%), Shigella boydii (11.8%), and Shigella dysenteriae (2.3%). The most frequent S. flexneri serotypes were 2a (40.6%), 1b (18.8%), 6 (17.5%), 3a (9.0%), and 4a (5.1%). Drug-specific resistance among 353 (98.3%) Shigella cases with AMR data was as follows: trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (94.9%), ampicillin (48.4%), nalidixic acid (1.7%), ceftriaxone (0.3%), azithromycin (0.3%), and ciprofloxacin (0.0%). CONCLUSIONS: A high prevalence of shigellosis continues in sub-Saharan Africa. Strains are highly resistant to commonly used antibiotics while remaining susceptible to ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone, and azithromycin.

BACKGROUND: Stunting affects >20% of children <5 years old worldwide and disproportionately impacts underserved communities. The Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study examined the association between an episode of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and the risk of subsequent stunting in children <5 years living in 3 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: In this prospective, matched, case-control study among children <5 years, data were collected over 36 months from 2 groups. "Children with MSD" visited a health center within 7 days of illness onset experiencing ≥3 loose stools/day plus sunken eyes, poor skin turgor, dysentery, intravenous rehydration, or hospitalization. "Children without MSD" were enrolled from the community within 14 days of the index MSD child; they were diarrhea-free during the previous 7 days and were matched to the index case by age, sex, and residence. Using generalized linear mixed-effects models, we estimated the effect of an MSD episode on odds of being stunted, defined as height-for-age z-scores <-2, at a follow-up visit 2-3 months post-enrollment. RESULTS: The proportion of stunting at enrollment was similar when 4603 children with MSD and 5976 children without MSD were compared (21.8% vs 21.3%; P = .504). Among children not stunted at enrollment, those with MSD had 30% higher odds of being stunted at follow-up than children without MSD after controlling for age, sex, study site, and socioeconomic status (adjusted OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.05-1.62: P = .018). CONCLUSIONS: Children <5 years in sub-Saharan Africa without stunting experienced an increased likelihood of stunting during 2-3 months following an episode of MSD. Strategies for control of early childhood diarrhea should be integrated into programs intended to reduce childhood stunting.

BACKGROUND: Studies conducted before rotavirus vaccine introduction found that moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children aged <5 years was associated with stunting at follow-up. It is unknown whether the reduction in rotavirus-associated MSD following vaccine introduction decreased the risk of stunting. METHODS: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) and the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) study, two comparable matched case-control studies, were conducted during 2007-2011 and 2015-2018, respectively. We analyzed data from 3 African sites where rotavirus vaccine was introduced after GEMS and before starting VIDA. Children with acute MSD (<7 days onset) were enrolled from a health center and children without MSD (diarrhea-free for ≥7 days) were enrolled at home within 14 days of the index MSD case. The odds of being stunted at a follow-up visit 2-3 months after enrollment for an episode of MSD was compared between GEMS and VIDA using mixed-effects logistic regression models controlling for age, sex, study site, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 8808 children from GEMS and 10 579 from VIDA. Among those who were not stunted at enrollment in GEMS, 8.6% with MSD and 6.4% without MSD became stunted during the follow-up period. In VIDA, 8.0% with MSD and 5.5% children without MSD developed stunting. An episode of MSD was associated with higher odds of being stunted at follow-up compared with children without MSD in both studies (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.64 in GEMS and aOR, 1.30; 95% CI: 1.04-1.61 in VIDA). However, the magnitude of association was not significantly different between GEMS and VIDA (P = .965). CONCLUSIONS: The association of MSD with subsequent stunting among children aged <5 years in sub-Saharan Africa did not change after rotavirus vaccine introduction. Focused strategies are needed for prevention of specific diarrheal pathogens that cause childhood stunting.

BACKGROUND: To address knowledge gaps regarding diarrheagenic Escherichia coli (DEC) in Africa, we assessed the clinical and epidemiological features of enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC), enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC), and Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) positive children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in Mali, The Gambia, and Kenya. METHODS: Between May 2015 and July 2018, children aged 0-59 months with medically attended MSD and matched controls without diarrhea were enrolled. Stools were tested conventionally using culture and multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and by quantitative PCR (qPCR). We assessed DEC detection by site, age, clinical characteristics, and enteric coinfection. RESULTS: Among 4840 children with MSD and 6213 matched controls enrolled, 4836 cases and 1 control per case were tested using qPCR. Of the DEC detected with TAC, 61.1% were EAEC, 25.3% atypical EPEC (aEPEC), 22.4% typical EPEC (tEPEC), and 7.2% STEC. Detection was higher in controls than in MSD cases for EAEC (63.9% vs 58.3%, P < .01), aEPEC (27.3% vs 23.3%, P < .01), and STEC (9.3% vs 5.1%, P < .01). EAEC and tEPEC were more frequent in children aged <23 months, aEPEC was similar across age strata, and STEC increased with age. No association between nutritional status at follow-up and DEC pathotypes was found. DEC coinfection with Shigella/enteroinvasive E. coli was more common among cases (P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: No significant association was detected between EAEC, tEPEC, aEPEC, or STEC and MSD using either conventional assay or TAC. Genomic analysis may provide a better definition of the virulence factors associated with diarrheal disease.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. FINDINGS: 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]). INTERPRETATION: The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns. FUNDING: NASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) determined the etiologic agents of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children under 5 years old in Africa and Asia. Here, we describe the prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibility of non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) serovars in GEMS and examine the phylogenetics of Salmonella Typhimurium ST313 isolates. METHODS: Salmonella isolated from children with MSD or diarrhea-free controls were identified by classical clinical microbiology and serotyped using antisera and/or whole genome sequence data. We evaluated antimicrobial susceptibility using the Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method. Salmonella Typhimurium sequence types were determined using multi-locus sequence typing and whole genome sequencing was performed to assess the phylogeny of ST313. RESULTS: Out of 370 Salmonella-positive individuals, 190 (51.4%) were MSD cases and 180 (48.6%) were diarrhea-free controls. The most frequent Salmonella serovars identified were Salmonella Typhimurium, serogroup O:8 (C2-C3), serogroup O:6,7 (C1), Salmonella Paratyphi B Java and serogroup O:4 (B). The prevalence of NTS was low but similar across sites, regardless of age, and was similar amongst both cases and controls except in Kenya, where Salmonella Typhimurium was more commonly associated with cases than controls. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these Salmonella Typhimurium isolates, all ST313, were highly genetically related to isolates from controls. Generally, Salmonella isolates from Asia were resistant to ciprofloxacin and ceftriaxone but African isolates were susceptible to these antibiotics. CONCLUSION: Our data confirms that NTS is prevalent, albeit at low levels, in Africa and South Asia. Our findings provide further evidence that multi-drug resistant Salmonella Typhimurium ST313 can be carried asymptomatically by humans in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Shigella is a leading cause of childhood diarrhea and target for vaccine development. Microbiologic and clinical case definitions are needed for pediatric field vaccine efficacy trials. METHODS: We compared characteristics of moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) cases in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) between children with culture positive Shigella to those with culture-negative, qPCR-attributable Shigella (defined by an ipaH gene cycle threshold <27.9). Among Shigella MSD cases, we determined risk factors for death and derived a clinical severity score. RESULTS: Compared to culture-positive Shigella MSD cases (n=745), culture-negative/qPCR-attributable Shigella cases (n=852) were more likely to be under 12 months, stunted, have a longer duration of diarrhea, and less likely to have high stool frequency or a fever. There was no difference in dehydration, hospitalization, or severe classification from a modified Vesikari score. Twenty-two (1.8%) Shigella MSD cases died within the 14-days after presentation to health facilities, and 59.1% of these deaths were in culture-negative cases. Age < 12 months, diarrhea duration prior to presentation, vomiting, stunting, wasting, and hospitalization were associated with mortality. A model-derived score assigned points for dehydration, hospital admission, and longer diarrhea duration but was not significantly better at predicting 14-day mortality than a modified Vesikari score. CONCLUSIONS: A composite severity score consistent with severe disease or dysentery may be a pragmatic clinical endpoint for severe shigellosis in vaccine trials. Reliance on culture for microbiologic confirmation may miss a substantial number of Shigella cases but is currently required to measure serotype specific immunity.

BACKGROUND: Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus is recognized as a major cause of encephalitis in Bangladesh. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends human immunization as the most effective means to control JE. Several WHO-prequalified vaccines are available to prevent JE but no vaccination program has been implemented in Bangladesh. METHODS: We conducted hospital-based surveillance for acute meningitis-encephalitis syndrome (AMES) to describe JE epidemiology and help inform policy decisions about possible immunization strategies for Bangladesh. RESULTS: During 2007-2016, a total of 6,543 AMES patients were identified at four tertiary hospitals. Of the 6,525 patients tested, 548 (8%) were classified as JE cases. These 548 patients resided in 36 (56%) out of 64 districts of Bangladesh, with the highest proportion of JE cases among AMES patients (12% and 7%) presenting at two hospitals in the northwestern part of the country. The median age of JE cases was 30 years, and 193 (35%) were aged ≤15 years. The majority of JE cases (80%) were identified from July through November. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance results suggest that JE continues to be an important cause of meningo-encephalitis in Bangladesh. Immunization strategies including JE vaccine introduction into the routine childhood immunization program or mass vaccination in certain age groups or geographic areas need to be examined, taking into consideration the cost-effectiveness ratio of the approach and potential for decreasing disease burden.

Contact patterns play a key role in disease transmission, and variation in contacts during the course of illness can influence transmission, particularly when accompanied by changes in host infectiousness. We used surveys among 1,642 contacts of 94 Nipah case-patients in Bangladesh to determine how contact patterns (physical and with bodily fluids) changed as disease progressed in severity. The number of contacts increased with severity and, for case-patients who died, peaked on the day of death. Given transmission has only been observed among fatal Nipah cases, our findings suggest changes in contact patterns during illness contribute to risk of infection.

BACKGROUND: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) was a 3-year case-control study that measured the burden, aetiology, and consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. GEMS-1A, a 12-month follow-on study, comprised two parallel case-control studies, one assessing MSD and the other less-severe diarrhoea (LSD). In this report, we analyse the risk of death with each diarrhoea type and the specific pathogens associated with fatal outcomes. METHODS: GEMS was a prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study done at seven sites in Africa and Asia. Children aged 0-59 months with MSD seeking care at sentinel health centres were recruited along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. In the 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study, children with LSD and matched controls, in addition to children with MSD and matched controls, were recruited at six of the seven sites; only cases of MSD and controls were enrolled at the seventh site. We compared risk of death during the period between enrolment and one follow-up household visit done about 60 days later (range 50-90 days) in children with MSD and LSD and in their respective controls. Approximately 50 pathogens were detected using, as appropriate, classic bacteriology, immunoassays, gel-based PCR and reverse transcriptase PCR, and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). Specimens from a subset of GEMS cases and controls were also tested by a TaqMan Array Card that compartmentalised probe-based qPCR for 32 enteropathogens. FINDINGS: 223 (2.0%) of 11 108 children with MSD and 43 (0.3%) of 16 369 matched controls died between study enrolment and the follow-up visit at about 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] 8.16, 95% CI 5.69-11.68, p<0.0001). 12 (0.4%) of 2962 children with LSD and seven (0.2%) of 4074 matched controls died during the follow-up period (HR 2.78, 95% CI 0.95-8.11, p=0.061). Risk of death was lower in children with dysenteric MSD than in children with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0.20, 95% CI 0.05-0.87, p=0.032), and lower in children with LSD than in those with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0.29, 0.14-0.59, p=0.0006). In children younger than 24 months with MSD, infection with typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli encoding heat-stable toxin, enteroaggregative E coli, Shigella spp (non-dysentery cases), Aeromonas spp, Cryptosporidium spp, and Entamoeba histolytica increased risk of death. Of 61 deaths in children aged 12-59 months with non-dysenteric MSD, 31 occurred among 942 children qPCR-positive for Shigella spp and 30 deaths occurred in 1384 qPCR-negative children (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2-3.9, p=0.0090), showing that Shigella was strongly associated with increased risk of death. INTERPRETATION: Risk of death is increased following MSD and, to a lesser extent, LSD. Considering there are approximately three times more cases of LSD than MSD in the population, more deaths are expected among children with LSD than in those with MSD. Because the major attributable LSD-associated and MSD-associated pathogens are the same, implementing vaccines and rapid diagnosis and treatment interventions against these major pathogens are rational investments. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in the first 2 years of life can impair linear growth. We sought to determine risk factors for linear growth faltering and to build a clinical prediction tool to identify children most likely to experience growth faltering following an episode of MSD. METHODS: Using data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study of children 0-23 months old presenting with MSD in Africa and Asia, we performed log-binomial regression to determine clinical and sociodemographic factors associated with severe linear growth faltering (loss of >/= 0.5 length-for-age z-score [LAZ]). Linear regression was used to estimate associations with DeltaLAZ. A clinical prediction tool was developed using backward elimination of potential variables, and Akaike Information Criterion to select the best fit model. RESULTS: Of the 5902 included children, mean age was 10 months and 43.2% were female. Over the 50-90-day follow-up period, 24.2% of children had severe linear growth faltering and the mean DeltaLAZ over follow-up was - 0.17 (standard deviation [SD] 0.54). After adjustment for age, baseline LAZ, and site, several factors were associated with decline in LAZ: young age, acute malnutrition, hospitalization at presentation, non-dysenteric diarrhea, unimproved sanitation, lower wealth, fever, co-morbidity, or an IMCI danger sign. Compared to children 12-23 months old, those 0-6 months were more likely to experience severe linear growth faltering (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 1.97 [95% CI 1.70, 2.28]), as were children 6-12 months of age (aPR 1.72 [95% CI 1.51, 1.95]). A prediction model that included age, wasting, stunting, presentation with fever, and presentation with an IMCI danger sign had an area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.67 (95% CI 0.64, 0.69). Risk scores ranged from 0 to 37, and a cut-off of 21 maximized sensitivity (60.7%) and specificity (63.5%). CONCLUSION: Younger age, acute malnutrition, MSD severity, and sociodemographic factors were associated with short-term linear growth deterioration following MSD. Data routinely obtained at MSD may be useful to predict children at risk for growth deterioration who would benefit from interventions.

BACKGROUND: Nipah virus is a highly virulent zoonotic pathogen that can be transmitted between humans. Understanding the dynamics of person-to-person transmission is key to designing effective interventions. METHODS: We used data from all Nipah virus cases identified during outbreak investigations in Bangladesh from April 2001 through April 2014 to investigate case-patient characteristics associated with onward transmission and factors associated with the risk of infection among patient contacts. RESULTS: Of 248 Nipah virus cases identified, 82 were caused by person-to-person transmission, corresponding to a reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary cases per case patient) of 0.33 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19 to 0.59). The predicted reproduction number increased with the case patient's age and was highest among patients 45 years of age or older who had difficulty breathing (1.1; 95% CI, 0.4 to 3.2). Case patients who did not have difficulty breathing infected 0.05 times as many contacts (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.3) as other case patients did. Serologic testing of 1863 asymptomatic contacts revealed no infections. Spouses of case patients were more often infected (8 of 56 [14%]) than other close family members (7 of 547 [1.3%]) or other contacts (18 of 1996 [0.9%]). The risk of infection increased with increased duration of exposure of the contacts (adjusted odds ratio for exposure of >48 hours vs. </=1 hour, 13; 95% CI, 2.6 to 62) and with exposure to body fluids (adjusted odds ratio, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.6 to 11). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing age and respiratory symptoms were indicators of infectivity of Nipah virus. Interventions to control person-to-person transmission should aim to reduce exposure to body fluids. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

BACKGROUND: Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) encoding heat-stable enterotoxin (ST) alone or with heat-labile enterotoxin (LT) cause moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in developing country children. The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) identified ETEC encoding ST among the top four enteropathogens. Since the GEMS objective was to provide evidence to guide development and implementation of enteric vaccines and other interventions to diminish diarrheal disease morbidity and mortality, we examined colonization factor (CF) prevalence among ETEC isolates from children age <5 years with MSD and from matched controls in four African and three Asian sites. We also assessed strength of association of specific CFs with MSD. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: MSD cases enrolled at healthcare facilities over three years and matched controls were tested in a standardized manner for many enteropathogens. To identify ETEC, three E. coli colonies per child were tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect genes encoding LT, ST; confirmed ETEC were examined by PCR for major CFs (Colonization Factor Antigen I [CFA/I] or Coli Surface [CS] antigens CS1-CS6) and minor CFs (CS7, CS12, CS13, CS14, CS17, CS18, CS19, CS20, CS21, CS30). ETEC from 806 cases had a single toxin/CF profile in three tested strains per child. Major CFs, components of multiple ETEC vaccine candidates, were detected in 66.0% of LT/ST and ST-only cases and were associated with MSD versus matched controls by conditional logistic regression (p</=0.006); major CFs detected in only 25.0% of LT-only cases weren't associated with MSD. ETEC encoding exclusively CS14, identified among 19.9% of 291 ST-only and 1.5% of 259 LT/ST strains, were associated with MSD (p = 0.0011). No other minor CF exhibited prevalence >/=5% and significant association with MSD. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Major CF-based efficacious ETEC vaccines could potentially prevent up to 66% of pediatric MSD cases due to ST-encoding ETEC in developing countries; adding CS14 extends coverage to ~77%.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the true burden of emergent diseases is critical for assessing public-health impact. However, surveillance often relies on hospital systems that only capture a minority of cases. We use the example of Nipah-virus infection in Bangladesh, which has a high case-fatality ratio and frequent person-to-person transmission, to demonstrate how healthcare-seeking data can estimate true burden. METHODS: We fit logistic-regression models to data from a population-based, healthcare-seeking study of encephalitis cases to characterize the impact of distance and mortality on attending one of three surveillance hospital sites. The resulting estimates of detection probabilities, as a function of distance and outcome, are applied to all observed Nipah outbreaks between 2007 and 2014 to estimate the true burden. RESULTS: The probability of attending a surveillance hospital fell from 82% for people with fatal encephalitis living 10 km away from a surveillance hospital to 54% at 50 km away. The odds of attending a surveillance hospital are 3.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.6, 6.6) times greater for patients who eventually died (i.e. who were more severely ill) compared with those who survived. Using these probabilities, we estimated that 119 Nipah outbreaks (95% confidence interval: 103, 140)-an average of 15 outbreaks per Nipah season-occurred during 2007-14; 62 (52%) were detected. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest hospital-based surveillance missed nearly half of all Nipah outbreaks. This analytical method allowed us to estimate the underlying burden of disease, which is important for emerging diseases where healthcare access may be limited.

Preventing emergence of new zoonotic viruses depends on understanding determinants for human risk. Nipah virus (NiV) is a lethal zoonotic pathogen that has spilled over from bats into human populations, with limited person-to-person transmission. We examined ecologic and human behavioral drivers of geographic variation for risk of NiV infection in Bangladesh. We visited 60 villages during 2011-2013 where cases of infection with NiV were identified and 147 control villages. We compared case villages with control villages for most likely drivers for risk of infection, including number of bats, persons, and date palm sap trees, and human date palm sap consumption behavior. Case villages were similar to control villages in many ways, including number of bats, persons, and date palm sap trees, but had a higher proportion of households in which someone drank sap. Reducing human consumption of sap could reduce virus transmission and risk for emergence of a more highly transmissible NiV strain.

Background: In March 2011, a multidisciplinary team investigated 2 human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection, detected through population-based active surveillance for influenza in Bangladesh, to assess transmission and contain further spread. Methods: We collected clinical and exposure history of the case patients and monitored persons coming within 1 m of a case patient during their infectious period. Nasopharyngeal wash specimens from case patients and contacts were tested with real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction, and virus culture and isolates were characterized. Serum samples were tested with microneutralization and hemagglutination inhibition assays. We tested poultry, wild bird, and environmental samples from case patient households and surrounding areas for influenza viruses. Results: Two previously healthy case patients, aged 13 and 31 months, had influenzalike illness and fully recovered. They had contact with poultry 7 and 10 days before illness onset, respectively. None of their 57 contacts were subsequently ill. Clade 2.2.2.1 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses were isolated from the case patients and from chicken fecal samples collected at the live bird markets near the patients' dwellings. Conclusion: Identification of H5N1 cases through population-based surveillance suggests possible additional undetected cases throughout Bangladesh and highlights the importance of surveillance for mild respiratory illness among populations frequently exposed to infected poultry.

The development of influenza candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) for pre-pandemic vaccine production represents a critical step in pandemic preparedness. The multiple subtypes and clades of avian or swine origin influenza viruses circulating world-wide at any one time necessitates the continuous generation of CVVs to provide an advanced starting point should a novel zoonotic virus cross the species barrier and cause a pandemic. Furthermore, the evolution and diversity of novel influenza viruses that cause zoonotic infections requires ongoing monitoring and surveillance, and, when a lack of antigenic match between circulating viruses and available CVVs is identified, the production of new CVVs. Pandemic guidelines developed by the WHO Global Influenza Program govern the design and preparation of reverse genetics-derived CVVs, which must undergo numerous safety and quality tests prior to human use. Confirmation of reassortant CVV attenuation of virulence in ferrets relative to wild-type virus represents one of these critical steps, yet there is a paucity of information available regarding the relative degree of attenuation achieved by WHO-recommended CVVs developed against novel viruses with pandemic potential. To better understand the degree of CVV attenuation in the ferret model, we examined the relative virulence of six A/Puerto Rico/8/1934-based CVVs encompassing five different influenza A subtypes (H2N3, H5N1, H5N2, H5N8, and H7N9) compared with the respective wild-type virus in ferrets. Despite varied virulence of wild-type viruses in the ferret, all CVVs examined showed reductions in morbidity and viral shedding in upper respiratory tract tissues. Furthermore, unlike the wild-type counterparts, none of the CVVs spread to extrapulmonary tissues during the acute phase of infection. While the magnitude of virus attenuation varied between virus subtypes, collectively we show the reliable and reproducible attenuation of CVVs that have the A/Puerto Rico/9/1934 backbone in a mammalian model.

BACKGROUND: The International Health Regulations outline core requirements to ensure the detection of public health threats of international concern. Assessing the capacity of surveillance systems to detect these threats is crucial for evaluating a country's ability to meet these requirements. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We propose a framework to evaluate the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance and apply it to severe neurological infectious diseases and fatal respiratory infectious diseases in Bangladesh. We identified cases in selected communities within surveillance hospital catchment areas using key informant and house-to-house surveys and ascertained where cases had sought care. We estimated the probability of surveillance detecting different sized outbreaks by distance from the surveillance hospital and compared characteristics of cases identified in the community and cases attending surveillance hospitals. We estimated that surveillance detected 26% (95% CI 18%-33%) of severe neurological disease cases and 18% (95% CI 16%-21%) of fatal respiratory disease cases residing at 10 km distance from a surveillance hospital. Detection probabilities decreased markedly with distance. The probability of detecting small outbreaks (three cases) dropped below 50% at distances greater than 26 km for severe neurological disease and at distances greater than 7 km for fatal respiratory disease. Characteristics of cases attending surveillance hospitals were largely representative of all cases; however, neurological disease cases aged <5 y or from the lowest socioeconomic group and fatal respiratory disease cases aged ≥60 y were underrepresented. Our estimates of outbreak detection rely on suspected cases that attend a surveillance hospital receiving laboratory confirmation of disease and being reported to the surveillance system. The extent to which this occurs will depend on disease characteristics (e.g., severity and symptom specificity) and surveillance resources. CONCLUSION: We present a new approach to evaluating the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance, making it possible to predict its ability to detect emerging threats.

Human Nipah encephalitis outbreaks have been identified almost yearly in Bangladesh since 2001. Though raw date palm sap consumption and person-to-person contact are recognized as major transmission pathways, alternative pathways of transmission are plausible and may not have been identified due to limited statistical power in each outbreak. We conducted a risk factor analysis using all 157 cases and 632 controls surveyed in previous investigations during 2004-2012 to identify exposures independently associated with Nipah, since date palm sap was first asked about as an exposure in 2004. To further explore possible rare exposures, we also conducted in-depth interviews with all cases, or proxies, since 2001 that reported no exposure to date palm sap or contact with another case. Cases were 4.9 (95% 3.2-7.7) times more likely to consume raw date palm sap and 7.3 (95% 4.0-13.4) times more likely to have contact with a Nipah case than controls. In-depth interviews revealed that 39/182 (21%) of Nipah cases reporting neither date palm sap consumption nor contact with another case were misclassified. Prevention efforts should be focused on interventions to interrupt transmission through date palm sap consumption and person-to-person contact. Furthermore, pooling outbreak investigation data is a good method for assessing rare exposures.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of mortality in children worldwide, but establishing the cause can be complicated by diverse diagnostic approaches and varying test characteristics. We used quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to reassess causes of diarrhoea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). METHODS: GEMS was a study of moderate to severe diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in Africa and Asia. We used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to test for 32 enteropathogens in stool samples from cases and matched asymptomatic controls from GEMS, and compared pathogen-specific attributable incidences with those found with the original GEMS microbiological methods, including culture, EIA, and reverse-transcriptase PCR. We calculated revised pathogen-specific burdens of disease and assessed causes in individual children. FINDINGS: We analysed 5304 sample pairs. For most pathogens, incidence was greater with qPCR than with the original methods, particularly for adenovirus 40/41 (around five times), Shigella spp or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) and Campylobactor jejuni o C coli (around two times), and heat-stable enterotoxin-producing E coli ([ST-ETEC] around 1.5 times). The six most attributable pathogens became, in descending order, Shigella spp, rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium spp, and Campylobacter spp. Pathogen-attributable diarrhoeal burden was 89.3% (95% CI 83.2-96.0) at the population level, compared with 51.5% (48.0-55.0) in the original GEMS analysis. The top six pathogens accounted for 77.8% (74.6-80.9) of all attributable diarrhoea. With use of model-derived quantitative cutoffs to assess individual diarrhoeal cases, 2254 (42.5%) of 5304 cases had one diarrhoea-associated pathogen detected and 2063 (38.9%) had two or more, with Shigella spp and rotavirus being the pathogens most strongly associated with diarrhoea in children with mixed infections. INTERPRETATION: A quantitative molecular diagnostic approach improved population-level and case-level characterisation of the causes of diarrhoea and indicated a high burden of disease associated with six pathogens, for which targeted treatment should be prioritised. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Understanding the natural evolution and structural changes involved in broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) development holds great promise for improving the design of prophylactic influenza vaccines. Here we report an haemagglutinin (HA) stem-directed bnAb, 3I14, isolated from human memory B cells, that utilizes a heavy chain encoded by the IGHV3-30 germline gene. MAb 3I14 binds and neutralizes groups 1 and 2 influenza A viruses and protects mice from lethal challenge. Analysis of VH and VL germline back-mutants reveals binding to H3 and H1 but not H5, which supports the critical role of somatic hypermutation in broadening the bnAb response. Moreover, a single VLD94N mutation improves the affinity of 3I14 to H5 by nearly 10-fold. These data provide evidence that memory B cell evolution can expand the HA subtype specificity. Our results further suggest that establishing an optimized memory B cell pool should be an aim of 'universal' influenza vaccine strategies.

BACKGROUND: National media reported a febrile illness among dormitory residents of a boys' religious school. We investigated the outbreak to identify cause. METHODS: Individuals with fever (>100 degrees F) and cough or sore throat between 1-13 August 2011 were influenza-like-illness (ILI) case-patients. We collected histories and specimens from hospitalized case-patients, and visited campus to explore environmental context. RESULTS: All 28 case-patients were dormitory residents including 27 hospitalizations. Accommodation space per resident was <0.8 square metres. Nasal and oropharyngeal swabs from 22 case-patients were positive for influenza B virus using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). CONCLUSIONS: Overcrowding likely facilitated transmission leading to this dormitory outbreak.

We report the clinical findings, epidemiology, and risk factors for moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) associated with Aeromonas species in children 0-59 months of age, from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, conducted at three sites in south Asia and four sites in sub-Saharan Africa. Children with MSD were enrolled along with controls matched for age, gender, and neighborhood. Pooled, age-stratified conditional logistic regression models were applied to evaluate the association of Aeromonas infection controlling for coinfecting pathogens and sociodemographic variables. A pooled, age-stratified, multivariate logistic regression analysis was done to identify risk factors associated with Aeromonas positivity in MSD cases. A total of 12,110 cases and 17,291 matched controls were enrolled over a period of 48 months. Aeromonas was identified as a significant pathogen in 736 cases of MSD in Pakistan and Bangladesh (22.2%). Aeromonas remained a significant pathogen even after adjustment for the presence of other pathogens and sociodemographic factors. Odds ratio (OR) for Aeromonas were higher in the presence of Shigella (matched OR: 6.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.9-20.2). Cases of Aeromonas were likely to present with dysentery, particularly in the 0-11 months (OR: 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-2.0) and 12-23 months (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3-2.5) age group. The odds of Aeromonas increased with increasing degree of stunting, being highest for severe stunting (OR: 10.1, 95% CI: 3.6-28.9). Aeromonas is a significant pathogen for MSD in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Presence of dysentery and co-occurrence with other pathogens, notably Shigella spp. are significant features of Aeromonas-associated diarrhea.

BACKGROUND: During a fatal Nipah virus (NiV) outbreak in Bangladesh, residents rejected biomedical explanations of NiV transmission and treatment and lost trust in the public healthcare system. Field anthropologists developed and communicated a prevention strategy to bridge the gap between the biomedical and local explanation of the outbreak. METHODS: We explored residents' beliefs and perceptions about the illness and care-seeking practices and explained prevention messages following an interactive strategy with the aid of photos showed the types of contact that can lead to NiV transmission from bats to humans by drinking raw date palm sap and from person-to-person. RESULTS: The residents initially believed that the outbreak was caused by supernatural forces and continued drinking raw date palm sap despite messages from local health authorities to stop. Participants in community meetings stated that the initial messages did not explain that bats were the source of this virus. After our intervention, participants responded that they now understood how NiV could be transmitted and would abstain from raw sap consumption and maintain safer behaviours while caring for patients. CONCLUSIONS: During outbreaks, one-way behaviour change communication without meaningful causal explanations is unlikely to be effective. Based on the cultural context, interactive communication strategies in lay language with supporting evidence can make biomedical prevention messages credible in affected communities, even among those who initially invoke supernatural causal explanations.

BACKGROUND: The importance of Cryptosporidium as a pediatric enteropathogen in developing countries is recognized. METHODS: Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, 7-site, case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and GEMS-1A (1-year study of MSD and less-severe diarrhea [LSD]) were analyzed. Stools from 12,110 MSD and 3,174 LSD cases among children aged <60 months and from 21,527 randomly-selected controls matched by age, sex and community were immunoassay-tested for Cryptosporidium. Species of a subset of Cryptosporidium-positive specimens were identified by PCR; GP60 sequencing identified anthroponotic C. parvum. Combined annual Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea incidences among children aged <24 months for African and Asian GEMS sites were extrapolated to sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian regions to estimate region-wide MSD and LSD burdens. Attributable and excess mortality due to Cryptosporidium diarrhea were estimated. FINDINGS: Cryptosporidium was significantly associated with MSD and LSD below age 24 months. Among Cryptosporidium-positive MSD cases, C. hominis was detected in 77.8% (95% CI, 73.0%-81.9%) and C. parvum in 9.9% (95% CI, 7.1%-13.6%); 92% of C. parvum tested were anthroponotic genotypes. Annual Cryptosporidium-attributable MSD incidence was 3.48 (95% CI, 2.27-4.67) and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.85-4.52) per 100 child-years in African and Asian infants, respectively, and 1.41 (95% CI, 0.73-2.08) and 1.36 (95% CI, 0.66-2.05) per 100 child-years in toddlers. Corresponding Cryptosporidium-attributable LSD incidences per 100 child-years were 2.52 (95% CI, 0.33-5.01) and 4.88 (95% CI, 0.82-8.92) in infants and 4.04 (95% CI, 0.56-7.51) and 4.71 (95% CI, 0.24-9.18) in toddlers. We estimate 2.9 and 4.7 million Cryptosporidium-attributable cases annually in children aged <24 months in the sub-Saharan Africa and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Nepal/Afghanistan regions, respectively, and ~202,000 Cryptosporidium-attributable deaths (regions combined). ~59,000 excess deaths occurred among Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea cases over expected if cases had been Cryptosporidium-negative. CONCLUSIONS: The enormous African/Asian Cryptosporidium disease burden warrants investments to develop vaccines, diagnostics and therapies.