The effort to eradicate Dracunculus medinensis, the etiologic agent of dracunculiasis, or Guinea worm disease, began at CDC in 1980. In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million global cases in 20 African and Asian countries, the World Health Assembly called for dracunculiasis elimination. The Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP) was established to help countries with endemic dracunculiasis reach this goal. GWEP is led by The Carter Center and supported by partners, including the countries with endemic disease, CDC, UNICEF, and the World Health Organization. Since 2012, infections in dogs, cats, and baboons have posed a new challenge for GWEP, as have ongoing civil unrest and insecurity in some areas. As of June 2024, dracunculiasis remained endemic in five countries (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan). Fourteen human cases and 886 animal infections occurred, including 407 dogs in Chad and 248 dogs in Cameroon, reported in 2023, and three human cases and 297 animal infections reported during January-June 2024. Animal infections, primarily in dogs in Cameroon and Chad, and impeded access due to civil unrest and insecurity in Mali, threaten the near-term possibility of global eradication. Nevertheless, countries appear poised to reach zero cases.

Inflammation and infections such as malaria affect micronutrient biomarker concentrations and hence estimates of nutritional status. It is unknown whether correction for C-reactive protein (CRP) and α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) fully captures the modification in ferritin concentrations during a malaria infection, or whether environmental and sociodemographic factors modify this association. Cross-sectional data from eight surveys in children aged 6-59 months (Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria and Zambia; n 6653) from the Biomarkers Reflecting Inflammation and Nutritional Determinants of Anaemia (BRINDA) project were pooled. Ferritin was adjusted using the BRINDA adjustment method, with values < 12 μg/l indicating iron deficiency. The association between current or recent malaria infection, detected by microscopy or rapid test kit, and inflammation-adjusted ferritin was estimated using pooled multivariable linear regression. Age, sex, malaria endemicity profile (defined by the Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence) and malaria diagnostic methods were examined as effect modifiers. Unweighted pooled malaria prevalence was 26·0 % (95 % CI 25·0, 27·1) and unweighted pooled iron deficiency was 41·9 % (95 % CI 40·7, 43·1). Current or recent malaria infection was associated with a 44 % (95 % CI 39·0, 52·0; P < 0·001) increase in inflammation-adjusted ferritin after adjusting for age and study identifier. In children, ferritin increased less with malaria infection as age and malaria endemicity increased. Adjustment for malaria increased the prevalence of iron deficiency, but the effect was small. Additional information would help elucidate the underlying mechanisms of the role of endemicity and age in the association between malaria and ferritin.

During responses to outbreaks, the collection and analysis of data on employed case patients' industry and occupation are necessary to better understand the relationship between work and health outcomes. The occurrence of mpox by occupation and industry has not previously been assessed in the context of the 2022 outbreak. We analyzed employment data from 2548 mpox cases reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from surveillance systems in seven U.S. jurisdictions and population-based reference data on employment patterns from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to describe the differential proportionate distribution of cases across occupation and industry groups using the proportionate morbidity ratio. In gender-specific analyses, we found that men employed in certain occupations and industries had a higher relative risk of mpox than others. While occupational transmission cannot be ruled out, it is more likely that individuals with personal and behavioral risk factors for mpox were more likely to work in these occupations and industries. This analysis provides an example of collecting and analyzing occupation and industry data in case reports to understand possible differences in risk by occupation and industry in infectious disease outbreak investigation and help inform resource allocation, messaging, and response.

A comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution and correlates of infection are key for the planning of disease control programs and assessing the feasibility of elimination and/or eradication. In this work, we used species distribution modeling to predict the environmental suitability of the Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) and identify important climatic and sociodemographic risk factors. Using Guinea worm surveillance data collected by the Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) from 2010 to 2022 in combination with remotely sensed climate and sociodemographic correlates of infection within an ensemble machine learning framework, we mapped the environmental suitability of Guinea worm infection in Chad. The same analytical framework was also used to ascertain the contribution and influence of the identified climatic risk factors. Spatial distribution maps showed predominant clustering around the southern regions and along the Chari River. We also identified areas predicted to be environmentally suitable for infection. Of note are districts near the western border with Cameroon and southeastern border with Central African Republic. Key environmental correlates of infection as identified by the model were proximity to permanent rivers and inland lakes, farmlands, land surface temperature, and precipitation. This work provides a comprehensive model of the spatial distribution of Guinea worm infections in Chad 2010-2022 and sheds light on potential environmental correlates of infection. As the CGWEP moves toward elimination, the methods and results in this study will inform surveillance activities and help optimize the allocation of intervention resources.

Dracunculiasis, also known as Guinea worm disease, is targeted to become the second human disease and first parasitic infection to be eradicated. The global Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP), through community-based interventions, reduced the burden of disease from an estimated 3.5 million cases per year in 1986 to only 13 human cases in 2022. Despite progress, in 2012 Guinea worm disease was detected in domesticated dogs and later in domesticated cats and baboons. Without previous development of any Guinea worm therapeutics, diagnostic tests to detect pre-patent Guinea worm infection, or environmental surveillance tools, the emergence of Guinea worm disease in animal hosts-a threat to eradication-motivated an assessment of evidence gaps and research opportunities. This gap analysis informed the refinement of a robust research agenda intended to generate new evidence and identify additional tools for national GWEPs and to better align the global GWEP with a 2030 Guinea worm eradication certification target. This paper outlines the rationale for the development and expansion of the global GWEP Research Agenda and summarizes the results of the gap analysis that was conducted to identify Guinea worm-related research needs and opportunities. We describe five work streams informed by the research gap analysis that underpin the GWEP Research Agenda and address eradication endgame challenges through the employment of a systems-informed One Health approach. We also discuss the infrastructure in place to disseminate new evidence and monitor research results as well as plans for the continual review of evidence and research priorities.

Community engagement is vital to the development of people-centered, successful vaccination programs. The diverse Vaccination Acceptance Research Network (VARN) community brings together interdisciplinary professionals from across the immunization ecosystem who play a crucial role in vaccination acceptance, demand, and delivery. Over the course of the VARN2023 conference, researchers and practitioners alike shared ideas and experiences focused on strategies and approaches to building trust between communities and health systems to increase equity in vaccination. Health professionals and community members must have equal value in the design and delivery of community-centered immunization services, while key vaccination decision-makers must also consider community experiences, concerns, and expertise in program design and policymaking. Therefore, strategies for community engagement and cultivating trust with communities are crucial for the success of any immunization program. Furthermore, health workers need additional skills, support, and resources to effectively communicate complex information about immunization, including effective strategies for countering misinformation. This article summarizes three skills-building sessions offered at the VARN2023 conference, focused on human-centered design, motivational interviewing, and engaging with journalists to leverage the voices of communities. These sessions offered practical, evidence-based tools for use across geographic and social settings that can be used by practitioners, researchers, and other stakeholders to increase vaccination demand and uptake in their communities.

Infections cause substantial morbidity and mortality among patients receiving care in outpatient hemodialysis facilities. We describe comprehensive infection prevention assessments by US public health departments using standardized interview and observation tools. Results demonstrated how facility layouts can undermine infection prevention and that clinical practices often fall short of policies.

Botulism is a paralytic disease due to the inhibition of acetylcholine exocytosis at the neuromuscular junction, which can be lethal if left untreated. Botulinum neurotoxins (BoNTs) are produced by some spore-forming Clostridium bacteria. The current confirmatory assay to test for BoNTs in clinical specimens is the gold-standard mouse bioassay. However, an Endopep-MS assay method has been developed to detect BoNTs in clinical samples using benchtop mass spectrometric detection. This work demonstrates the validation of the Endopep-MS method for clinical specimens with the intent of method distribution in public health laboratories. The Endopep-MS assay was validated by assessing the sensitivity, robustness, selectivity, specificity, and reproducibility. The limit of detection was found to be equivalent to or more sensitive than the mouse bioassay. Specificity studies determined no cross-reactivity between the different serotypes and no false positives from an exclusivity panel of culture supernatants of enteric disease organisms and non-toxigenic strains of Clostridium. Inter-serotype specificity testing with 19 BoNT subtypes was 100% concordant with the expected results, accurately determining the presence of the correct serotype and the absence of incorrect serotypes. Additionally, a panel of potential interfering substances was used to test selectivity. Finally, clinical studies included clinical specimen stability and reproducibility, which was found to be 99.9% from a multicenter evaluation study. The multicenter validation study also included a clinical validation study, which yielded a 99.4% correct determination rate. Use of the Endopep-MS method will improve the capacity and response time for laboratory confirmation of botulism in public health laboratories.

In a recent article, Gebre1 suggests that endemic countries should lead in deciding on disease eradication initiatives and asserts that ‘elimination as a public health problem’ is the preferred option because eradication occurs at the expense of other health programs and weakens fragile health systems. The author's primary example is dracunculiasis (Guinea worm) eradication, but he fails to take into account that vertical disease elimination and eradication programs also strengthen health systems overall. Eradication means permanent reduction to an incidence of zero of a disease worldwide, while elimination as a public health problem means minimal disease incidence but control measures are still necessary.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a systematic review aimed to evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions within non-healthcare workplaces and community-level workplace closures and lockdowns on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, selected mental disorders, and employment outcomes in workers or the general population. METHODS: The inclusion criteria included randomized controlled trials and non-randomized studies of interventions. The exclusion criteria included modeling studies. Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, and other databases from January 1, 2020, through May 11, 2021. Risk of bias was assessed using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool. Meta-analysis and sign tests were performed. RESULTS: A total of 60 observational studies met the inclusion criteria. There were 40 studies on COVID-19 outcomes, 15 on anxiety and depression symptoms, and five on unemployment and labor force participation. There was a paucity of studies on physical distancing, physical barriers, and symptom and temperature screening within workplaces. The sign test indicated that lockdown reduced COVID-19 incidence or case growth rate (23 studies, p < 0.001), reproduction number (11 studies, p < 0.001), and COVID-19 mortality or death growth rate (seven studies, p < 0.05) in the general population. Lockdown did not have any effect on anxiety symptoms (pooled standardized mean difference = -0.02, 95% CI: -0.06, 0.02). Lockdown had a small effect on increasing depression symptoms (pooled standardized mean difference = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.21), but publication bias could account for the observed effect. Lockdown increased unemployment (pooled mean difference = 4.48 percentage points, 95% CI: 1.79, 7.17) and decreased labor force participation (pooled mean difference = -2.46 percentage points, 95% CI: -3.16, -1.77). The risk of bias for most of the studies on COVID-19 or employment outcomes was moderate or serious. The risk of bias for the studies on anxiety or depression symptoms was serious or critical. CONCLUSIONS: Empiric studies indicated that lockdown reduced the impact of COVID-19, but that it had notable unwanted effects. There is a pronounced paucity of studies on the effect of interventions within still-open workplaces. It is important for countries that implement lockdown in future pandemics to consider strategies to mitigate these unintended consequences. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration # CRD42020182660.

INTRODUCTION: HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective when taken as prescribed. Digital health adherence interventions have been identified as effective for improving antiretroviral therapy adherence among people with HIV, but limited evidence exists for PrEP adherence interventions among people without HIV. The purpose of this Community Guide systematic review was to present the characteristics and effectiveness of digital PrEP adherence interventions. METHODS: The author searched the CDC HIV Prevention Research Synthesis cumulative database for digital health interventions with PrEP adherence outcomes published in peer-reviewed journals from 2000-2022. Studies with comparison arms or pre-post data evaluating interventions in high-income countries were included. Two reviewers independently screened citations, extracted data, conducted risk of bias assessment, and resolved discrepancies through discussion. Summary effect estimates were calculated using median and interquartile interval. RESULTS: Nine studies were included and all focused on gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men. Eight studies were U.S.-based while the other was conducted in the Netherlands. Five were randomized control trials and four were pre-/post studies. All studies showed improved adherence in the intervention arms compared with comparison groups or pre-intervention data. One study also reported improvement in PrEP care retention. DISCUSSION: Digital health adherence interventions with different strategies to improve PrEP and HIV-related outcomes were identified. The small number of studies identified is a limitation. Findings from this review served as the basis for the Community Preventive Services Task Force recommendation to use these interventions to increase PrEP adherence to prevent HIV infection.

INTRODUCTION: This systematic economic review examined the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness of park, trail, and greenway infrastructure interventions to increase physical activity or infrastructure use. METHODS: The search period covered the date of inception of publications databases through February 2022. Inclusion was limited to studies that reported cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness outcomes and were based in the United States and other high-income countries. Analyses were conducted during March 2022 through December 2022. All monetary values reported are in 2021 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: The search yielded 1 study based in the United States and 7 based on other high-income countries, with 1 reporting cost-effectiveness and 7 reporting cost-benefit outcomes. The cost-effectiveness study based in the United Kingdom reported $23,254 per disability-adjusted life year averted. The median benefit to cost ratio was 3.1 (Interquartile Interval: 2.9 to 3.9) based on 7 studies. DISCUSSION: The evidence shows that economic benefits exceed the intervention cost of park, trail, and greenway infrastructure. Given large differences in the size of infrastructure, intervention cost and economic benefits varied substantially across studies. There was insufficient number of studies to determine cost-effectiveness of these interventions.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, candidate COVID-19 vaccines were being developed for potential use in the United States on an unprecedented, accelerated schedule. It was anticipated that once available, under U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or FDA approval, COVID-19 vaccines would be broadly used and potentially administered to millions of individuals in a short period of time. Intensive monitoring in the post-EUA/licensure period would be necessary for timely detection and assessment of potential safety concerns. To address this, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) convened an Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) work group focused solely on COVID-19 vaccine safety, consisting of independent vaccine safety experts and representatives from federal agencies - the ACIP COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Technical Work Group (VaST). This report provides an overview of the organization and activities of VaST, summarizes data reviewed as part of the comprehensive effort to monitor vaccine safety during the COVID-19 pandemic, and highlights selected actions taken by CDC, ACIP, and FDA in response to accumulating post-authorization safety data. VaST convened regular meetings over the course of 29 months, from November 2020 through April 2023; through March 2023 FDA issued EUAs for six COVID-19 vaccines from four different manufacturers and subsequently licensed two of these COVID-19 vaccines. The independent vaccine safety experts collaborated with federal agencies to ensure timely assessment of vaccine safety data during this time. VaST worked closely with the ACIP COVID-19 Vaccines Work Group; that work group used safety data and VaST's assessments for benefit-risk assessments and guidance for COVID-19 vaccination policy. Safety topics reviewed by VaST included those identified in safety monitoring systems and other topics of scientific or public interest. VaST provided guidance to CDC's COVID-19 vaccine safety monitoring efforts, provided a forum for review of data from several U.S. government vaccine safety systems, and assured that a diverse group of scientists and clinicians, external to the federal government, promptly reviewed vaccine safety data. In the event of a future pandemic or other biological public health emergency, the VaST model could be used to strengthen vaccine safety monitoring, enhance public confidence, and increase transparency through incorporation of independent, non-government safety experts into the monitoring process, and through strong collaboration among federal and other partners.

The article focuses on a webinar titled "Protecting Infants from RSV: Understanding Guidance on New Prevention Tools," hosted by the National Coalition for Infant Health, with speakers from the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses, CDC, and the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases.

Wastewater surveillance (WWS), the systematic detection of infectious agents in wastewater, provided a valuable tool for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic; surveillance has expanded from 20 to 53 jurisdictions across the United States, with increasing capacity to test for more respiratory pathogens (1,2). This report highlights the use of wastewater data by the four National Wastewater Surveillance System’s (NWSS) Centers of Excellence (California; Colorado; Houston, Texas; and Wisconsin) to guide public health action during the 2022–23 respiratory disease season. This activity was reviewed by CDC, deemed not research, and was conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy.*

Nearly a century after the beginning of the antibiotic era, which has been associated with unparalleled improvements in human health and reductions in mortality associated with infection, the dwindling pipeline for new antibiotic classes coupled with the inevitable spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major global challenge. Historically, surveillance of bacteria with AMR typically relied on phenotypic analysis of isolates taken from infected individuals, which provides only a low-resolution view of the epidemiology behind an individual infection or wider outbreak. Recent years have seen increasing adoption of powerful new genomic technologies with the potential to revolutionise AMR surveillance by providing a high-resolution picture of the AMR profile of the bacteria causing infections and providing real-time actionable information for treating and preventing infection. However, many barriers remain to be overcome before genomic technologies can be adopted as a standard part of routine AMR surveillance around the world. Accordingly, the Surveillance and Epidemiology of Drug-resistant Infections Consortium convened an expert working group to assess the benefits and challenges of using genomics for AMR surveillance. In this Series, we detail these discussions and provide recommendations from the working group that can help to realise the massive potential benefits for genomics in surveillance of AMR.

Integration of genomic technologies into routine antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance in health-care facilities has the potential to generate rapid, actionable information for patient management and inform infection prevention and control measures in near real time. However, substantial challenges limit the implementation of genomics for AMR surveillance in clinical settings. Through a workshop series and online consultation, international experts from across the AMR and pathogen genomics fields convened to review the evidence base underpinning the use of genomics for AMR surveillance in a range of settings. Here, we summarise the identified challenges and potential benefits of genomic AMR surveillance in health-care settings, and outline the recommendations of the working group to realise this potential. These recommendations include the definition of viable and cost-effective use cases for genomic AMR surveillance, strengthening training competencies (particularly in bioinformatics), and building capacity at local, national, and regional levels using hub and spoke models.

The effort to eradicate Dracunculus medinensis, the etiologic agent of dracunculiasis, or Guinea worm disease, commenced at CDC in 1980. In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million cases worldwide in 20 African and Asian countries, the World Health Assembly called for dracunculiasis elimination. The Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP) was established to help countries with endemic dracunculiasis reach this goal. GWEP is led by The Carter Center and supported by partners that include the World Health Organization, UNICEF, and CDC. In 2012, D. medinensis infections were unexpectedly confirmed in Chadian dogs, and since then, infections in dogs, cats, and baboons have posed a new challenge for GWEP, as have ongoing civil unrest and insecurity in some areas. By 2022, dracunculiasis was endemic in five countries (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan), with only 13 human cases identified, the lowest yearly total ever reported. Animal infections, however, were not declining at the same rate: 686 animal infections were reported in 2022, including 606 (88%) in dogs in Chad. Despite these unanticipated challenges as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, countries appear close to reaching the eradication goal. GWEP will continue working with country programs to address animal infections, civil unrest, and insecurity, that challenge the eradication of Guinea worm.

BACKGROUND: Limited diagnostic capabilities, resources and health worker skills have deterred the advancement of birth defects surveillance systems in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Empowering health workers to identify and diagnose major external birth defects (BDs) is crucial to establishing effective hospital-based BD surveillance. Makerere University-Johns Hopkins University (MU-JHU) Research Collaboration BD Surveillance System consists of three diagnostic levels: (1) surveillance midwives, (2) MU-JHU clinical team, and (3) U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) birth defects subject matter experts (SMEs) who provide confirmatory diagnosis. The diagnostic concordance of major external BDs by surveillance midwives or MU-JHU clinical team with CDC birth defects SMEs were estimated. METHODS: Study staff went through a series of trainings, including birth defects identification and confirmation, before surveillance activities were implemented. To assess the diagnostic concordance, we analyzed surveillance data from 2015 to 2021 for major external BDs: anencephaly, iniencephaly, encephalocele, spina bifida, craniorachischisis, microcephaly, anophthalmia/microphthalmia, anotia/microtia, cleft palate alone, cleft lip alone, cleft lip with cleft palate, imperforate anus, hypospadias, talipes equinovarus, limb reduction, gastroschisis, and omphalocele. Positive predictive value (PPV) as the proportion of BDs diagnosed by surveillance midwives or MU-JHU clinical team that were confirmed by CDC birth defects SMEs was computed. PPVs between 2015 and 2018 and 2019-2021 were compared to assess the accuracy of case diagnosis over time. RESULTS: Of the 204,332 infants examined during 2015-2021, 870 infants had a BD. Among the 1,245 BDs identified, 1,232 (99.0%) were confirmed by CDC birth defects SMEs. For surveillance midwives, PPV for 7 of 17 BDs was > 80%. For the MU-JHU clinical team, PPV for 13 of 17 BDs was > 80%. Among surveillance midwives, PPV improved significantly from 2015 to 2018 to 2019-2021, for microcephaly (+ 50.0%), cleft lip with cleft palate (+ 17.0%), imperforate anus (+ 30.0%), and talipes equinovarus (+ 10.8%). Improvements in PPV were also observed among MU-JHU clinical team; however, none were significant. CONCLUSION: The diagnostic accuracy of the midwives and clinical team increased, highlighting that BD surveillance, by front-line health care workers (midwives) in LMICs is possible when midwives receive comprehensive training, technical support, funding and continuous professional development.

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident hospitalizations, incident cases, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at national, state, and county levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work. Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below: AIpert-pwllnod: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Caltech-CS156: Gary Clinard Innovation Fund; CEID-Walk: University of Georgia; CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook; COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health; Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information &amp; Data Science Pilot Project; Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation; DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699; epiforecasts-ensemble1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) FDANIHASU: supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH/NIDDK; GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowment, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. &amp; Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia &amp; Paul Raines, CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement; IHME: This work was supported by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096); Imperial-ensemble1: SB acknowledges funding from the Wellcome Trust (219415); Institute of Business Forecasting: IBF; IowaStateLW-STEM: NSF DMS-1916204, Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics; IUPUI CIS: NSF; JHU_CSSE-DECOM: JHU CSSE: National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Real-time Forecasting of COVID-19 risk in the USA. 2021-2022. Award ID: 2108526. National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Development of an interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real-time. 2020. Award ID: 2028604; JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, &amp; Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant); JHU_UNC_GAS-StatMechP ol: NIH NIGMS: R01GM140564; JHUAPL-Bucky: US Dept of Health and Human Services; KITmetricslab-select_ensemble: Daniel Wolffram gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER; MIT-Cassandra: MIT Quest for Intelligence; MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01; CA NU38OT000297 from the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE); NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; NotreDame-mobility: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; PSI-DRAFT: NSF RAPID Grant # 2031536; QJHong-Encounter: NSF DMR-2001411 and DMR-1835939; SDSC_ISG-TrendModel: The development of the dashboard was partly funded by the Fondation Privee des Hopitaux Universitaires de Geneve; UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401; UChicagoCHATTOPADHYAY-UnIT: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) #HR00111890043/P00004 (I. Chattopadhyay, University of Chicago); UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626; UCSD_NEU-DeepGLEAM: Google Faculty Award, W31P4Q-21-C-0014; UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS #R35GM119582, NSF #1749854, NIGMS #R35GM119582; UMich-RidgeTfReg: This project is funded by the University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research; UVA-Ensemble: National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141; Wadnwani_AI-BayesOpt: This study is made possible by the generous support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The work described in this article was implemented under the TRACETB Project, managed by WIAI under the terms of Cooperative Agreement Number 72038620CA00006. The contents of this manuscript are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government; WalmartLabsML-LogForecasting: Team acknowledges Walmart to support this study Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesI confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data produced are available online at https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information&amp; Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. &amp; Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia &amp; Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, &amp; Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44

Wearing a facemask can help to decrease the transmission of COVID-19. We investigated self-reported mask use among subjects aged 18 years and older participating in the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership (CRP), a prospective longitudinal COVID-19 surveillance study in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States. We included those participants who completed >=5 daily surveys each month from December 1, 2020 through August 31, 2021. Mask use was defined as self-reported use of a face mask or face covering on every interaction with others outside the household within a distance of less than 6 feet. Participants were considered vaccinated if they reported receiving >=1 COVID-19 vaccine dose. Participants (n=17,522) were 91% non-Hispanic White, 68% female, median age 57 years, 26% healthcare workers, with 95% self-reported receiving >=1 COVID-19 vaccine dose through August; mean daily survey response was 85%. Mask use was higher among vaccinated than unvaccinated participants across the study period, regardless of the month of the first dose. Mask use remained relatively stable from December 2020 through April (range 71-80% unvaccinated; 86-93% vaccinated) and declined in both groups beginning in mid-May 2021 to 34% and 42% respectively in June 2021; mask use has increased again since July 2021. Mask use by all was lower during weekends and on Christmas and Easter, regardless of vaccination status. Independent predictors of higher mask use were vaccination, age >=65 years, female sex, racial or ethnic minority group, and healthcare worker occupation, whereas a history of self-reported prior COVID-19 illness was associated with lower use. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

BACKGROUND: South Africa is disproportionately impacted by non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and HIV/AIDS. We investigated the prevalence of known/unknown NCD risk factors, HIV, and NCD risk factor-HIV comorbidity; and treatment status on known diseases to determine the prevalence of controlled/uncontrolled disease. METHODS: This cross-sectional study (June 2018-March 2019) within an integrated testing centre in Soweto, South Africa, screened adults (aged ≥18 years) for body mass index (BMI), hypertension (HT), rapid glucose and cholesterol, and HIV. Results were stratified by age group, sex, HIV-status, and self-reported ART use. Analysis included Fisher's exact, chi-squared, Kruskal Wallis, and Student's T-tests. FINDINGS: Of 780 enrolled participants, 19.2% were HIV-positive, 37.5% were overweight/obese, 18.0% hypertensive, 10.8% hyperglycaemic, and 8.1% had hypercholesterolaemia. Significantly more women had overweight/obese BMI than men (46.8% vs 19.7%; p<0.0001), and women aged 25-34 years had significantly more hypercholesterolaemia than same-aged men (18.2% vs 5.6%; p = 0.02). HIV-positive participants had significantly more hyperglycaemia than HIV-negative participants (16.1% vs 9.6%; p = 0.02), and those on ART (63.9%) had significantly more hypercholesterolaemia than those not on ART (21.7% vs. 4.9%; p = 0.002). Of participants with HT, hyperglycaemia, and hypercholesterolaemia; 72.4%, 96.1%, and 93.3% were newly diagnosed. All participants with previously diagnosed NCDs remained with uncontrolled disease. INTERPRETATION: There is a high burden of HIV, NCD risk factors, and comorbidity in Soweto, and amongst young adults (18-34 years), especially women. Lowering age requirements for glucose/cholesterol screening to 18+ years, regardless of BMI, HIV-status, or ART use, may yield timely NCD diagnosis/management.

In 2007, Hobfoll and coauthors described “Five Essential Elements of Immediate and Mid–Term Mass Trauma Intervention: Empirical Evidence,” a framework to guide intervention and prevention efforts in the aftermath of mass trauma. Briefly, these include promoting safety, calm, self- and community efficacy, connectedness, and hope for the future. These evidence-informed elements have been used in early disaster interventions, such as Psychological First Aid (Brymer et al., 2006), and have widely influenced international public health policy. This commentary will address whether these elements have provided guidance when applied to the setting of the COVID-19 pandemic. | | As of this writing (July 11, 2021), there have been more than 185 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 world-wide, resulting in over 4 million reported deaths (Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center). This international public health disaster, tremendous in scope and scale, has unfolded in unyielding and uneven waves, affecting different regions of the world with varied intensity over the past 18 months. Global mortality, societal and economic disruption, and the protracted nature of the crisis have overwhelmed medical facilities, health care systems, and communities. Inconsistent messaging about the transmissibility of the virus and seriousness of COVID-19 magnified uncertainty and fear. Early efforts focused on containing the spread of infection and managing serious respiratory illness. This quickly grew to include concern about the psychological trauma surrounding both the seriousness of the disease and the psychosocial and economic effect of its containment efforts. A large body of evidence reveals that during the initial phase of the pandemic, there was an increase in levels of anxiety, depression, substance misuse, and suicidal ideation in the U.S. (e.g., Czeisler et al., 2020; Ettman et al., 2020). Notably, youth, women, and those caring for young children –groups not previously identified as high risk for psychiatric disorders – experienced disproportionate psychological distress and possible increases in self-harm (Aknin et al., 2021).

The American Medical Society for Sports Medicine (AMSSM) convened a group of experts to develop a position statement addressing the problem of sexual violence in sport. The AMSSM Sexual Violence in Sport Task Force held a series of meetings over 7 months, beginning in July 2019. Following a literature review, the task force used an iterative process and expert consensus to finalize the position statement. The objective of this position statement is to raise awareness of this critical issue among sports medicine physicians and to declare a commitment to engage in collaborative, multidisciplinary solutions to reduce sexual violence in sport.

BACKGROUND: Resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine threatens the antimalarial effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy (IPTp) in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to assess the associations between markers of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in P falciparum and the effectiveness of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine IPTp for malaria-associated outcomes. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched databases (from Jan 1, 1990 to March 1, 2018) for clinical studies (aggregated data) or surveys (individual participant data) that reported data on low birthweight (primary outcome) and malaria by sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine IPTp dose, and for studies that reported on molecular markers of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance. Studies that involved only HIV-infected women or combined interventions were excluded. We did a random-effects meta-analysis (clinical studies) or multivariate log-binomial regression (surveys) to obtain summarised dose-response data (relative risk reduction [RRR]) and multivariate meta-regression to explore the modifying effects of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance (as indicated by Ala437Gly, Lys540Glu, and Ala581Gly substitutions in the dhps gene). This study is registered with PROSPERO, number 42016035540. FINDINGS: Of 1097 records screened, 57 studies were included in the aggregated-data meta-analysis (including 59 457 births). The RRR for low birthweight declined with increasing prevalence of dhps Lys540Glu (p(trend)=0·0060) but not Ala437Gly (p(trend)=0·35). The RRR was 7% (95% CI 0 to 13) in areas of high resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (Lys540Glu ≥90% in east and southern Africa; n=11), 21% (14 to 29) in moderate-resistance areas (Ala437Gly ≥90% [central and west Africa], or Lys540Glu ≥30% to <90% [east and southern Africa]; n=16), and 27% (21 to 33) in low-resistance areas (Ala437Gly <90% [central and west Africa], or Lys540Glu <30% [east and southern Africa]; n=30; p(trend)=0·0054 [univariate], I(2)=69·5%). The overall RRR in all resistance strata was 21% (17 to 25). In the analysis of individual participant data from 13 surveys (42 394 births), sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine IPTp was associated with reduced prevalence of low birthweight in areas with a Lys540Glu prevalence of more than 90% and Ala581Gly prevalence of less than 10% (RRR 10% [7 to 12]), but not in those with an Ala581Gly prevalence of 10% or higher (pooled Ala581Gly prevalence 37% [range 29 to 46]; RRR 0·5% [-16 to 14]; 2326 births). INTERPRETATION: The effectiveness of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine IPTp is reduced in areas with high resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine among P falciparum parasites, but remains associated with reductions in low birthweight even in areas where dhps Lys540Glu prevalence exceeds 90% but where the sextuple-mutant parasite (harbouring the additional dhps Ala581Gly mutation) is uncommon. Therapeutic alternatives to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine IPTp are needed in areas where the prevalence of the sextuple-mutant parasite exceeds 37%. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Malaria in Pregnancy Consortium (funded through a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine), Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership.

INTRODUCTION: This paper examined the recent evidence from economic evaluations of team-based care for controlling high blood pressure. METHODS: The search covered studies published from January 2011 through January 2021 and was limited to those based in the United States (U.S.) and other high-income countries. This yielded 35 studies, 23 based in the U.S. and 12 in other high-income countries. Analyses were conducted during May 2021 through February 2023. All monetary values reported are in 2020 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: The median intervention cost per patient per year was $438 for U.S. studies and $299 for all studies. The median change in healthcare cost per patient per year following the intervention was -$140 for both U.S. studies and for all studies. The median net cost per patient per year was $439 for U.S. studies and $133 for all studies. Median cost per quality adjusted life year gained was $12,897 for U.S. studies and $15,202 for all studies, which are below a conservative benchmark of $50,000 for cost-effectiveness. DISCUSSION: Intervention cost and net cost were higher in the U.S. compared to other high- income countries. Healthcare cost averted did not exceed intervention cost in most studies. The evidence shows team-based care for blood pressure control is cost-effective, re-affirming the favorable cost-effectiveness conclusion reached in the 2015 systematic review.

Black men who have sex with men (BMSM) are at higher risk of HIV transmission than any other group; however, their uptake of the highly effective HIV prevention medication, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), is low. In collaboration with a communitybased organization in Atlanta, Georgia, we explored ten HIV-negative BMSM's willingness to obtain PrEP in pharmacies using standard open-ended and vignette qualitative methods. Three overarching themes were identified: privacy, patient-pharmacist interactions, and HIV/STI screening. While open-ended questions allowed participants to provide broad answers on their willingness to receive prevention services at a pharmacy, the vignette drew out specific responses to facilitate in-pharmacy PrEP delivery. Using both openended questions and vignette data collection strategies, BMSM reported high willingness to screen for and uptake PrEP in pharmacies. However, the vignette method allowed for greater depth. Open-ended questions elicited responses that highlighted general barriers and facilitators of PrEP dispensing in pharmacies. However, the vignette allowed participants to customize a plan of action that would best fit their needs. Vignette methods are underutilized in HIV research and may be helpful in supplementing standard open-ended interview questions to uncovering unknown challenges about health behaviors and obtain more robust data on highly sensitive research topics in HIV research.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis E virus (HEV), the causative agent of hepatitis E, is a common but self-limiting disease. However, in immunosuppressed kidney transplant 47 recipients (KTRs), HEV infection can become chronic. We investigated risk factors associated with HEV infection among 271 KTRs at the Johns Hopkins Hospital transplanted between 1988 and 2012. METHODS: HEV infection was defined as having positive anti-HEV IgM, anti-HEV IgG, or HEV RNA. The risk factors included: age at transplant, sex, hemodialysis/peritoneal dialysis, plasmapheresis, transfusions, community urbanization, and other socioeconomic factors. Logistic regression was used to determine independent risk factors associated with HEV infection. RESULTS: Out of 271 KTRs, 43 (16%) had HEV infection though not active disease. HEV infection in KTRs was associated with older age (≥45 years; OR = 4.04; 95% CI = 1.81-57 10.03; p = 0.001) and living in communities with low proportions of minorities (OR = 0.22; 95% 58 CI = 0.04-0.90; p = 0.046). CONCLUSION: KTRs who had HEV infection may be at an increased risk of developing chronic HEV.

Early warning and response surveillance (EWARS) systems were widely used during the early COVID-19 response. Evaluating the effectiveness of EWARS systems is critical to ensuring global health security. We describe the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) global COVID-19 EWARS (CDC EWARS) system and the resources CDC used to gather, manage, and analyze publicly available data during the prepandemic period. We evaluated data quality and validity by measuring reporting completeness and compared these with data from Johns Hopkins University, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and indicator-based data from the World Health Organization. CDC EWARS was integral in guiding CDC's early COVID-19 response but was labor-intensive and became less informative as case-level data decreased and the pandemic evolved. However, CDC EWARS data were similar to those reported by other organizations, confirming the validity of each system and suggesting collaboration could improve EWARS systems during future pandemics.