INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this analysis was to rapidly evaluate the potential costs, cost-effectiveness, and long-term effects of efforts by multisector community partnerships (MCPs) to improve chronic disease outcomes and advance health equity by addressing social determinants of health (SDOH). METHODS: In 2022, the evaluators partnered with 13 MCPs to collect data on start-up and ongoing costs for implementing SDOH interventions and on intervention reach and timing. In 2023, the team used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) to estimate the longer-term impact of MCPs' efforts over 5-, 10-, and 20-year periods. The team also analyzed costs and cumulative 10- and 20-year cost-effectiveness of the MCPs' SDOH interventions. RESULTS: Over 20 years, SDOH interventions implemented by the 13 MCPs can potentially prevent 970 premature deaths and avert $105 million in medical costs and $408 million in productivity losses. The 20-year cumulative results show potential net costs of $38 300 per quality-adjusted life-year gained from the health care sector perspective and indicate potentially reduced costs and improved health outcomes from the societal perspective. CONCLUSIONS: These findings can help inform and provide support for future investments in SDOH interventions. With a better understanding of costs needed to start up and implement SDOH interventions, funders and MCPs can prepare for the resources required to do this work. Findings also suggest promising long-term impacts and potential cost-effectiveness for most MCP-implemented SDOH interventions.

INTRODUCTION: This study seeks to estimate health care expenditures and use associated with hypertension, focusing on differences among racial and ethnic groups. METHODS: Data were from the 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, analyzed in 2023. The study sample included noninstitutionalized U.S. adults aged ≥18 years. Outcome variables were health care expenditures and events. Hypertension was determined by a self-reported diagnosis or diagnoses codes. Race and ethnicity were self-reported. A 2-part model was used to estimate expenditures associated with hypertension. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to estimate events associated with hypertension. Sampling designs were applied to generate nationally representative estimates. RESULTS: Hypertension was associated with $2,759 (95% confidence interval [CI]: $2,039, $3,479) in health care expenditures and 10.3 (95% CI: 9.3, 11.3) health care events, including prescriptions filled, in 2019 per person. Compared with non-Hispanic White adults, hypertension-associated health care expenditures were significantly lower among Hispanic adults (difference: -$1,877; 95% CI: -$3,389, -$364) and Asian adults (difference: -$2,452; 95% CI: -$4,093, -$811), and hypertension-associated health care events were significantly lower among Hispanic adults (difference: -3.8; 95% CI: -6.1, -1.6) and non-Hispanic Asian adults (difference: -4.1; 95% CI: -6.9, -1.2). Differences between non-Hispanic White adults and non-Hispanic Black adults were not statistically significant in health care expenditures (difference: -$954; 95% CI: -$2,849, $941) and events (difference: 0.3; 95% CI: -2.1, 2.8). CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals differences in health care expenditures and use associated with hypertension among racial and ethnic groups. Future studies are needed to examine potential drivers of these differences.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the incremental costs and benefits of scaling up hypertension care in adults in 24 select countries, using three different systolic blood pressure (SBP) treatment cut-off points-≥140, ≥150 and ≥160 mm Hg. INTERVENTION: Strengthening the hypertension care cascade compared with status quo levels, with pharmacological treatment administered at different cut-points depending on the scenario. TARGET POPULATION: Adults aged 30+ in 24 low-income and middle-income countries spanning all world regions. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. TIME HORIZON: 30 years. DISCOUNT RATE: 4%. COSTING YEAR: 2020 USD. STUDY DESIGN: DATA SOURCES: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Epi Visualisations database-country-specific cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, prevalence and death rates. Mean SBP and prevalence-National surveys and NCD-RisC. Treatment protocols-WHO HEARTS. Treatment impact-academic literature. Costs-national and international databases. OUTCOME MEASURES: Health outcomes-averted stroke and myocardial infarction events, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years; economic outcomes-averted health expenditures, value of averted mortality and workplace productivity losses. RESULTS OF ANALYSIS: Across 24 countries, over 30 years, incremental scale-up of hypertension care for adults with SBP≥140 mm Hg led to 2.6 million averted CVD events and 1.2 million averted deaths (7% of expected CVD deaths). 68% of benefits resulted from treating those with very high SBP (≥160 mm Hg). 10 of the 12 highest-income countries projected positive net benefits at one or more treatment cut-points, compared with 3 of the 12 lowest-income countries. Treating hypertension at SBP≥160 mm Hg maximised the net economic benefit in the lowest-income countries. LIMITATIONS: The model only included a few hypertension-attributable diseases and did not account for comorbid risk factors. Modelled scenarios assumed ambitious progress on strengthening the care cascade. CONCLUSIONS: In areas where economic considerations might play an outsized role, such as very low-income countries, prioritising treatment to populations with severe hypertension can maximise benefits net of economic costs.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic impacted sexual behaviors and the HIV continuum-of-care in the United States, reducing HIV testing and diagnosis, and use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aim to understand the future implications of these effects through a modeling study. METHODS: We first ran our compartmental model of HIV transmission in the US accounting for pandemic-related short-term changes in transmission behavior and HIV prevention and care provision in 2020-2021 only. We then ran a comparison scenario that did not apply pandemic effects but assumed a continuation of past HIV prevention and care trends. We compared results from the two scenarios through 2024. RESULTS: HIV incidence was 4·4% lower in 2020-21 for the pandemic scenario compared with the no-pandemic scenario due to reduced levels of transmission behavior, despite reductions in HIV prevention and care caused by the pandemic. However, reduced care led to less viral load suppression among people with HIV (PWH) in 2020 and, in turn, our model resulted in a slightly greater incidence of 2·0% from 2022-24 in the COVID-19 scenario, as compared to the non-COVID scenario. DISCUSSION: Disruptions in HIV prevention and care services during COVID-19 may lead to somewhat higher post-pandemic HIV incidence, than assuming pre-pandemic trends in HIV care and prevention continued. These results underscore the importance of continuing to increase HIV prevention and care efforts in the coming years.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, an urgent need existed for near-real-time data collection to better understand how individual beliefs and behaviors, state and local policies, and organizational practices influenced health outcomes. We describe the processes, methods, and lessons learned during the development and pilot testing of an innovative rapid data collection process we developed to inform decision-making during the COVID-19 public health emergency. We used a fully integrated mixed-methods approach to develop a structured process for triangulating quantitative and qualitative data from traditional (cross-sectional surveys, focus groups) and nontraditional (social media listening) sources. Respondents included students, parents, teachers, and key school personnel (eg, nurses, administrators, mental health providers). During the pilot phase (February-June 2021), data from 12 cross-sectional and sector-based surveys (n = 20 302 participants), 28 crowdsourced surveys (n = 26 820 participants), 10 focus groups (n = 64 participants), and 11 social media platforms (n = 432 754 503 responses) were triangulated with other data to support COVID-19 mitigation in schools. We disseminated findings through internal dashboards, triangulation reports, and policy briefs. This pilot demonstrated that triangulating traditional and nontraditional data sources can provide rapid data about barriers and facilitators to mitigation implementation during an evolving public health emergency. Such a rapid feedback and continuous improvement model can be tailored to strengthen response efforts. This approach emphasizes the value of nimble data modernization efforts to respond in real time to public health emergencies.

Public health plays a key role in addressing social determinants of health (SDOH) through multisector community partnerships (MCPs), which contribute to community changes that promote healthy living; however, little is known about the longer-term impact of MCP-driven interventions. We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) in a rapid evaluation to better understand the implementation and potential impact of MCPs' SDOH initiatives. Results suggest that, if sustained, initiatives implemented by the 27 included MCPs may prevent 880 premature deaths and avert $125.7 million in medical costs over 20 years. As a validated model that estimates impact by using available implementation data, PRISM is a useful tool for evaluating SDOH initiatives.

PURPOSE: To better understand and inform how multisector community partnerships (MCPs) perform meaningful work to prevent chronic disease and advance health equity by addressing social determinants of health (SDOH). METHODS: We conducted a rapid retrospective evaluation of SDOH initiatives implemented within the past three years by 42 established MCPs across the United States. The mixed methods evaluation included document review and coding of available outcomes data, virtual discussions, and Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) analysis. RESULTS: All 42 MCPs built community capacity for addressing SDOH through new or strengthened data systems, leveraged resources, or engaged residents, for example. Most MCPs (N = 38, 90%) reported contributions to community changes that promote healthy living. More than half of the MCPs (N = 22) reported health outcomes data for their SDOH initiatives, including improved health behaviors and clinical outcomes. Based on reach data provided by 27 MCPs, PRISM analysis results suggest that sustained initiatives could save over $633 million in productivity and medical costs cumulatively through 20 years. CONCLUSIONS: With sufficient technical assistance and funding resources, MCPs are a key component of the public health strategy to address SDOH.

In 2018, the U.S. Public Health Service (USPHS) published updated clinical guidelines for the use of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to reduce the risk of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM), heterosexual women and men, and persons who inject drugs.1 PrEP is one of the main tools being used to achieve the Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. incidence-reduction goals.2 Thus, policy makers need accurate estimates of the number of U.S. adults having indications for PrEP.

The purpose of this study was to determine the amount of time elementary and middle-school students spend away from the classroom and clinic time required to administer vaccines in school-located vaccination (SLV) clinics. We conducted a time study and estimated average time away from class and time to administer vaccine by health department (HD), student grade level, vaccine type, and vaccination process for SLV clinics during the 2012-2013 school year. Average time away from classroom was 10 min (sample: 688 students, 15 schools, three participating HD districts). Overall, time to administer intranasally administered influenza vaccine was nearly half the time to administer injected vaccine (52.5 vs. 101.7 s) (sample: 330 students, two HDs). SLV administration requires minimal time outside of class for elementary and middle-school students. SLV clinics may be an efficient way to administer catch-up vaccines to children who missed routine vaccinations during the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: Given the growth in national disability-associated health care expenditures (DAHE) and the changes in health insurance-specific DAHE distribution, updated estimates of state-level DAHE are needed. The objective of this study was to update state-level estimates of DAHE. METHODS: We combined data from the 2013-2015 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2013-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and 2014 National Health Expenditure Accounts to calculate state-level DAHE for US adults in total, per adult, and per (adult) person with disability (PWD). We adjusted expenditures to 2017 prices and assessed changes in DAHE from 2003 to 2015. RESULTS: In 2015, DAHE were $868 billion nationally (range, $1.4 billion in Wyoming to $102.8 billion in California) accounting for 36% of total health care expenditures (range, 29%-41%). From 2003 to 2015, total DAHE increased by 65% (range, 35%-125%). In 2015, DAHE per PWD were highest in the District of Columbia ($27 839) and lowest in Alabama ($12 603). From 2003 to 2015, per-PWD DAHE increased by 13% (range, -20% to 61%) and per-capita DAHE increased by 28% (range, 7%-84%). In 2015, Medicare DAHE per PWD ranged from $10 067 in Alaska to $18 768 in New Jersey. Medicaid DAHE per PWD ranged from $9825 in Nevada to $43 365 in the District of Columbia. Nonpublic-health insurer per-PWD DAHE ranged from $7641 in Arkansas to $18 796 in Alaska. CONCLUSION: DAHE are substantial and vary by state. The public sector largely supports the health care costs of people with disabilities. State policy makers and other stakeholders can use these results to inform the development of public health programs that support and provide ongoing health care to people with disabilities.

INTRODUCTION: Demonstrating the validity of a public health simulation model helps to establish confidence in the accuracy and usefulness of a model's results. In this study we evaluated the validity of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), a system dynamics model that simulates health, mortality, and economic outcomes for the US population. PRISM primarily simulates outcomes related to cardiovascular disease but also includes outcomes related to other chronic diseases that share risk factors. PRISM is openly available through a web application. METHODS: We applied the model validation framework developed independently by the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making modeling task force to validate PRISM. This framework included model review by external experts and quantitative data comparison by the study team. RESULTS: External expert review determined that PRISM is based on up-to-date science. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that no parameter affected results by more than 5%. Comparison with other published models, such as ModelHealth, showed that PRISM produces lower estimates of effects and cost savings. Comparison with surveillance data showed that projected model trends in risk factors and outcomes align closely with secular trends. Four measures did not align with surveillance data, and those were recalibrated. CONCLUSION: PRISM is a useful tool to simulate the potential effects and costs of public health interventions. Results of this validation should help assure health policy leaders that PRISM can help support community health program planning and evaluation efforts.

BACKGROUND: In 2003, national disability-associated health care expenditures (DAHE) were $398 billion. Updated estimates will improve our understanding of current DAHE. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate national DAHE for the US adult population and analyze spending by insurance and service categories and to assess changes in spending over the past decade. RESEARCH DESIGN: Data from the 2013-2015 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey were used to estimate DAHE for noninstitutionalized adults. These estimates were reconciled with National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) data and adjusted to 2017 medical prices. Expenditures for institutionalized adults were added from NHEA data. MEASURES: National DAHE in total, by insurance and service categories, and percentage of total expenditures associated with disability. RESULTS: DAHE in 2015 were $868 billion (at 2017 prices), representing 36% of total national health care spending (up from 27% in 2003). DAHE per person with disability increased from $13,395 in 2003 to $17,431 in 2015, whereas nondisability per-person spending remained constant (about $6700). Public insurers paid 69% of DAHE. Medicare paid the largest portion ($324.7 billion), and Medicaid DAHE were $277.2 billion. More than half (54%) of all Medicare expenditures and 72% of all Medicaid expenditures were associated with disability. CONCLUSIONS: The share of health care expenditures associated with disability has increased substantially over the past decade. The high proportion of DAHE paid by public insurers reinforces the importance of public programs designed to improve health care for people with disabilities and emphasizes the need for evaluating programs and health services available to this vulnerable population.

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is thought to spread from person to person primarily by the respiratory route and mainly through close contact (1). Community mitigation strategies can lower the risk for disease transmission by limiting or preventing person-to-person interactions (2). U.S. states and territories began implementing various community mitigation policies in March 2020. One widely implemented strategy was the issuance of orders requiring persons to stay home, resulting in decreased population movement in some jurisdictions (3). Each state or territory has authority to enact its own laws and policies to protect the public's health, and jurisdictions varied widely in the type and timing of orders issued related to stay-at-home requirements. To identify the broader impact of these stay-at-home orders, using publicly accessible, anonymized location data from mobile devices, CDC and the Georgia Tech Research Institute analyzed changes in population movement relative to stay-at-home orders issued during March 1-May 31, 2020, by all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories.* During this period, 42 states and territories issued mandatory stay-at-home orders. When counties subject to mandatory state- and territory-issued stay-at-home orders were stratified along rural-urban categories, movement decreased significantly relative to the preorder baseline in all strata. Mandatory stay-at-home orders can help reduce activities associated with the spread of COVID-19, including population movement and close person-to-person contact outside the household.

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is thought to be transmitted mainly by person-to-person contact (1). Implementation of nationwide public health orders to limit person-to-person interaction and of guidance on personal protective practices can slow transmission (2,3). Such strategies can include stay-at-home orders, business closures, prohibitions against mass gatherings, use of cloth face coverings, and maintenance of a physical distance between persons (2,3). To assess and understand public attitudes, behaviors, and beliefs related to this guidance and COVID-19, representative panel surveys were conducted among adults aged >/=18 years in New York City (NYC) and Los Angeles, and broadly across the United States during May 5-12, 2020. Most respondents in the three cohorts supported stay-at-home orders and nonessential business closures* (United States, 79.5%; New York City, 86.7%; and Los Angeles, 81.5%), reported always or often wearing cloth face coverings in public areas (United States, 74.1%, New York City, 89.6%; and Los Angeles 89.8%), and believed that their state's restrictions were the right balance or not restrictive enough (United States, 84.3%; New York City, 89.7%; and Los Angeles, 79.7%). Periodic assessments of public attitudes, behaviors, and beliefs can guide evidence-based public health decision-making and related prevention messaging about mitigation strategies needed as the COVID-19 pandemic evolves.

Fellowship programs offer career development opportunities, provide experiential training, and can be used to recruit personnel to address specific challenges facing the public health workforce. Given the potential influence fellowships have on the future public health workforce, it is important to understand and articulate the results of such programs and to identify areas of improvement to meet current workforce needs. The purpose of this literature review was to identify common practices used to evaluate nonclinical fellowship programs. After a search of the internet and selected databases, we screened titles and abstracts using predetermined selection criteria. We then conducted a detailed review of selected papers to extract information about program characteristics (program description, sector, and program length) and evaluation characteristics (primary evaluation type, framework for evaluation, data collection methods, and respondent populations) from 33 papers. We found a limited number of published papers on the evaluation of nonclinical fellowship programs, and most focused on outcomes associated with fellows or alumni. The most useful papers for our purposes clearly described the evaluation framework that guided the evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: Public health focuses on a range of evidence-based approaches for addressing chronic conditions, from individual-level clinical interventions to broader changes in policies and environments that protect people's health and make healthy living easier. This study examined the potential long-term impact of clinical and community interventions as they were implemented by Community Transformation Grant (CTG) program awardees. METHODS: We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model, a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease prevention, to simulate the potential 10-year and 25-year impact of clinical and community interventions implemented by 32 communities receiving a CTG program award, assuming that program interventions were sustained during these periods. RESULTS: Sustained clinical interventions implemented by CTG awardees could potentially avert more than 36,000 premature deaths and $3.2 billion in discounted direct medical costs (2017 US dollars) over 10 years and 109,000 premature deaths and $8.1 billion in discounted medical costs over 25 years. Sustained community interventions could avert more than 24,000 premature deaths and $3.4 billion in discounted direct medical costs over 10 years and 88,000 premature deaths and $9.1 billion in discounted direct medical costs over 25 years. CTG clinical activities had cost-effectiveness of $302,000 per death averted at the 10-year mark and $188,000 per death averted at the 25-year mark. Community interventions had cost-effectiveness of $169,000 and $57,000 per death averted at the 10- and 25-year marks, respectively. CONCLUSION: Clinical interventions have the potential to avert more premature deaths than community interventions. However, community interventions, if sustained over the long term, have better cost-effectiveness.

In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded communities to implement policy, systems, and environmental (PSE) changes under the Communities Putting Prevention to Work (CPPW) program to make it easier for people to make healthier choices to prevent chronic disease. Twenty-one of 50 funded communities implemented interventions intended to reduce tobacco use. To examine the potential cost-effectiveness of tobacco control changes implemented under CPPW from a healthcare system perspective, we compared program cost estimates with estimates of potential impacts. We used an existing simulation model, the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), to estimate the potential cumulative impact of CPPW tobacco interventions on deaths and medical costs averted through 2020. We collected data on the costs to implement CPPW tobacco interventions from 2010 to 2013. We adjusted all costs to 2010 dollars. CPPW tobacco interventions cost $130.5 million across all communities, with an average community cost of $6.2 million. We found $735 million in potentially averted medical costs cumulatively from 2010 through 2020 because of the CPPW-supported interventions. If the CPPW tobacco control PSE changes are sustained through 2020 without additional funding after 2013, we find that medical costs averted will likely exceed program costs by $604 million. Our results suggest that the medical costs averted through 2020 may more than offset the initial investment in CPPW tobacco control interventions, implying that such interventions may be cost saving, especially over the long term.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate direct medical and indirect costs attributable to diabetes in each U.S. state in total and per person with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used an attributable fraction approach to estimate direct medical costs using data from the 2013 State Health Expenditure Accounts, 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' 2013-2014 Minimum Data Set. We used a human capital approach to estimate indirect costs measured by lost productivity from morbidity (absenteeism, presenteeism, lost household productivity, and inability to work) and premature mortality, using the 2008-2013 National Health Interview Survey, 2013 daily housework value data, 2013 mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, and mean wages from the 2014 Bureau of Labor Statistics. Costs were adjusted to 2017 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: The estimated median state economic cost was $5.9 billion, ranging from $694 million to $55.5 billion, in total and $18,248, ranging from $15,418 to $30,915, per person with diabetes. The corresponding estimates for direct medical costs were $2.8 billion (range: $0.3-22.9) and $8,544 (range: $6,591-12,953) and for indirect costs were $3.0 billion (range: $0.4-32.6) and $9,672 (range: $7,133-17,962). In general, the estimated state median indirect costs resulting from morbidity were larger than costs from mortality both in total and per person with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Economic costs attributable to diabetes were large and varied widely across states. Our comprehensive state-specific estimates provide essential information needed by state policy makers to monitor the economic burden of the disease and to better plan and evaluate interventions for preventing type 2 diabetes and managing diabetes in their states.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the diabetes-attributable nursing home costs for each state. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a diabetes-attributable fraction (AF) approach to estimate nursing home costs attributable to diabetes (in 2013 $) in aggregate and per person with diabetes in each state. We calculated the AFs as the difference in diabetes prevalence between nursing homes and the community. We used the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid's 2013-2015 Minimum Data Set to estimate the prevalence of diabetes in nursing homes and to adjust for the intensity of care among people with diabetes in nursing homes. Community prevalence was estimated using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). State nursing home expenditures were from the 2013 State Health Expenditure Accounts. RESULTS: The fraction of total nursing home expenditures attributable to diabetes ranged from 12.3% (Illinois) to 22.5% (Washington, DC; median AF of 15.6%, New Jersey). The median AF was highest in the 19-64 years age-group and lowest in the 85 years or older age-group. Nationally, diabetes-attributable nursing home costs were $18.6 billion. State-level diabetes-attributable costs ranged from $21 million in Alaska to $2.0 billion in California. Diabetes-attributable nursing home costs per person ranged from $374 in New Mexico to $1,610 in Washington, DC (median of $799 in Maine). CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates provide state policymakers with an improved understanding of the economic burden of diabetes in each state's nursing homes. These estimates could serve as critical inputs for planning and evaluating diabetes prevention and management interventions that can keep people healthier and living longer in their communities.

Limited data are available on the costs of evidence-based community-wide prevention programs. The objective of this study was to estimate the per-person costs of strategies that support policy, systems, and environmental changes implemented under the Community Transformation Grants (CTG) program. We collected cost data from 29 CTG awardees and estimated program costs as spending on labor; consultants; materials, travel, and services; overhead activities; partners; and the value of in-kind contributions. We estimated costs per person reached for 20 strategies. We assessed how per-person costs varied with the number of people reached. Data were collected in 2012-2015, and the analysis was conducted in 2015-2016. Two of the tobacco-free living strategies cost less than $1.20 per person and reached over 6 million people each. Four of the healthy eating strategies cost less than $1.00 per person, and one of them reached over 6.5 million people. One of the active living strategies cost $2.20 per person and reached over 7 million people. Three of the clinical and community preventive services strategies cost less than $2.30 per person, and one of them reached almost 2 million people. Across all 20 strategies combined, an increase of 10,000 people in the number of people reached was associated with a $0.22 reduction in the per-person cost. Results demonstrate that interventions, such as tobacco-free indoor policies, which have been shown to improve health outcomes have relatively low per-person costs and are able to reach a large number of people.

Anal intercourse is reported by many heterosexuals, and evidence suggests that its practice may be increasing. We estimated the proportion of the HIV burden attributable to anal sex in 2015 among heterosexual women and men in the United States. The HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics model was developed using parameter inputs from the literature for the sexually active U.S. population aged 13-64. The model uses differential equations to represent the progression of the population between compartments defined by HIV disease status and continuum-of-care stages from 2007 to 2015. For heterosexual women of all ages (who do not inject drugs), almost 28% of infections were associated with anal sex, whereas for women aged 18-34, nearly 40% of HIV infections were associated with anal sex. For heterosexual men, 20% of HIV infections were associated with insertive anal sex with women. Sensitivity analyses showed that varying any of 63 inputs by +/-20% resulted in no more than a 13% change in the projected number of heterosexual infections in 2015, including those attributed to anal sex. Despite uncertainties in model inputs, a substantial portion of the HIV burden among heterosexuals appears to be attributable to anal sex. Providing information about the relative risk of anal sex compared with vaginal sex may help reduce HIV incidence in heterosexuals.

INTRODUCTION: In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) launched Communities Putting Prevention to Work (CPPW), a $485 million program to reduce obesity, tobacco use, and exposure to secondhand smoke. CPPW awardees implemented evidence-based policy, systems, and environmental changes to sustain reductions in chronic disease risk factors. This article describes short-term and potential long-term benefits of the CPPW investment. METHODS: We used a mixed-methods approach to estimate population reach and to simulate the effects of completed CPPW interventions through 2020. Each awardee developed a community action plan. We linked plan objectives to a common set of interventions across awardees and estimated population reach as an early indicator of impact. We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), a systems dynamics model of cardiovascular disease prevention, to simulate premature deaths, health care costs, and productivity losses averted from 2010 through 2020 attributable to CPPW. RESULTS: Awardees completed 73% of their planned objectives. Sustained CPPW improvements may avert 14,000 premature deaths, $2.4 billion (in 2010 dollars) in discounted direct medical costs, and $9.5 billion (in 2010 dollars) in discounted lifetime and annual productivity losses through 2020. CONCLUSION: PRISM results suggest that large investments in community preventive interventions, if sustained, could yield cost savings many times greater than the original investment over 10 to 20 years and avert 14,000 premature deaths.

CONTEXT: Community-level strategic planning for chronic disease prevention. OBJECTIVE: To share the outcomes of the strategic planning process used by Mississippi Delta stakeholders to prevent and reduce the negative impacts of chronic disease in their communities. A key component of strategic planning was participants' use of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) to project the reduction, compared with the status quo, in deaths and costs from implementing interventions in Mississippi Delta communities. DESIGN: Participants in Mississippi Delta strategic planning meetings used PRISM, a user-friendly, evidence-based simulation tool that includes 22 categories of policy, systems, and environmental change interventions, to pose what-if questions that explore the likely short- and long-term effects of an intervention or any desired combination of the 22 categories of chronic disease intervention programs and policies captured in PRISM. These categories address smoking, air pollution, poor nutrition, and lack of physical activity. Strategic planning participants used PRISM outputs to inform their decisions and actions to implement interventions. SETTING: Rural communities in the Mississippi Delta. PARTICIPANTS: A diverse group of 29 to 34 local chronic disease prevention stakeholders, known as the Mississippi Delta Strategic Alliance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Community plans and actions that were developed and implemented as a result of local strategic planning. RESULTS: Existing strategic planning efforts were complemented by the use of PRISM. The Mississippi Delta Strategic Alliance decided to implement new interventions to improve air quality and transportation and to expand existing interventions to reduce tobacco use and increase access to healthy foods. They also collaborated with the Department of Transportation to raise awareness and use of the current transportation network. CONCLUSIONS: The Mississippi Delta Strategic Alliance strategic planning process was complemented by the use of PRISM as a tool for strategic planning, which led to the implementation of new and strengthened chronic disease prevention interventions and policies in the Mississippi Delta.

In the United States recording accurate vaccine lot numbers in immunization records is required by the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act and is necessary for public health surveillance and implementation of vaccine product recalls. However, this information is often missing or inaccurate in records. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requires a linear barcode of the National Drug Code (NDC) on vaccine product labels as a medication verification measure, but lot number and expiration date must still be recorded by hand. Beginning in 2011, FDA permitted manufacturers to replace linear barcodes with two-dimensional (2D) barcodes on unit-of-use product labels. A 2D barcode can contain the NDC, expiration date, and lot number in a symbol small enough to fit on a unit-of-use label. All three data elements could be scanned into a patient record. To assess 2D barcodes' potential impacts, a mixed-methods approach of time-motion data analysis, interview and survey data collection, and cost-benefit analysis was employed. Analysis of a time-motion study conducted at 33 practices suggests scanning 2D-barcoded vaccines could reduce immunization documentation time by 36-39s per dose. Data from an internet survey of primary care providers and local health officials indicate that 60% of pediatric practices, 54% of family medicine practices, and 39% of health departments would use the 2D barcode, with more indicating they would do so if they used electronic health records. Inclusive of manufacturer and immunization provider costs and benefits, we forecast lower-bound net benefits to be $310-334 million between 2011 and 2023 with a benefit-to-cost ratio of 3.1:1-3.2:1. Although we were unable to monetize benefits for expected improved immunization coverage, surveillance, or reduced medication errors, based on our findings, we expect that using 2D barcodes will lower vaccine documentation costs, facilitate data capture, and enhance immunization data quality.

This article uses the 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccination program experience to introduce a cost analysis approach that may be relevant for planning mass prophylaxis operations, such as vaccination clinics at public health centers, work sites, schools, or pharmacy-based clinics. These costs are important for planning mass influenza vaccination activities and are relevant for all public health emergency preparedness scenarios requiring countermeasure dispensing. We demonstrate how costs vary depending on accounting perspective, staffing composition, and other factors. We also describe a mass vaccination clinic budgeting tool that clinic managers may use to estimate clinic costs and to examine how costs vary depending on the availability of volunteers or donated supplies and on the number of patients vaccinated per hour. Results from pilot tests with school-based H1N1 influenza vaccination clinic managers are described. The tool can also contribute to planning efforts for universal seasonal influenza vaccination.